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Gaussian process hydrodynamics

Abstract We present a Gaussian process (GP) approach, called Gaussian process hydrodynamics (GPH) for approximating the solution to the Euler and Navier-Stokes (NS) equations. Similar to smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH), GPH is a Lagrangian particle-based approach that involves the tracking of a finite number of particles transported by a flow. However, these particles do not represent mollified particles of matter but carry discrete/partial information about the continuous flow. Closure is achieved by placing a divergence-free GP prior ξ on the velocity field and conditioning it on the vorticity at the particle locations. Known physics (e.g., the Richardson cascade and velocity increment power laws) is incorporated into the GP prior by using physics-informed additive kernels. This is equivalent to expressing ξ as a sum of independent GPs ξ l , which we call modes, acting at different scales (each mode ξ l self-activates to represent the formation of eddies at the corresponding scales). This approach enables a quantitative analysis of the Richardson cascade through the analysis of the activation of these modes, and enables us to analyze coarse-grain turbulence statistically rather than deterministically. Because GPH is formulated by using the vorticity equations, it does not require solving a pressure equation. By enforcing incompressibility and fluid-structure boundary conditions through the selection of a kernel, GPH requires significantly fewer particles than SPH. Because GPH has a natural probabilistic interpretation, the numerical results come with uncertainty estimates, enabling their incorporation into an uncertainty quantification (UQ) pipeline and adding/removing particles (quanta of information) in an adapted manner. The proposed approach is suitable for analysis because it inherits the complexity of state-of-the-art solvers for dense kernel matrices and results in a natural definition of turbulence as information loss. Numerical experiments support the importance of selecting physics-informed kernels and illustrate the major impact of such kernels on the accuracy and stability. Because the proposed approach uses a Bayesian interpretation, it naturally enables data assimilation and predictions and estimations by mixing simulation data and experimental data.

Mathematics↗

Process-oriented evaluation of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature extremes in dynamical downscaling over North America

Quasi-stationary Rossby waves are a crucial component of the general circulation and play a significant role in regional water and energy cycles, as well as in extreme events. However, process-oriented evaluation for Rossby waves is rarely performed for dynamical downscaling simulations. To close this gap, we evaluate three classes of dynamical downscaling approaches, with a focus on quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature over North America during Northern Hemisphere summer. The three classes of models differ in the way large-scale forcing is provided: a limited-area model (LAM) constrained only by lateral boundary conditions, represented by RegCM4 from the North American branch of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX), a LAM with spectral nudging to maintain consistency in large-scale dynamics with the forcing data, represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation in NA-CORDEX, and a global variable-resolution model with smoothly varying grid spacings, represented by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.4, with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) as its dynamical core (CAM-MPAS). With no constraints on the atmospheric dynamics, CAM-MPAS exhibits several mean biases in the upper-level circulations over the Pacific Coast region: a weaker subtropical jet, a northward-shifted mid-latitude jet, and an overestimated southerly flow. With the lateral boundary constraint alone, RegCM4 also exhibits weaker jets and overestimated southerly winds off the West Coast. Rossby ray theory reveals that those wind biases direct incoming Rossby waves northward. The erroneously routed Rossby waves distort the relationship between the accumulation of wave activity over the US West Coast and surface temperature anomalies over the Southern Great Plains, which emerges approximately 4 d after the convergence of wave-activity flux in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Furthermore, the response of heatwaves to the extreme wave activity flux is not reproduced by the two models, a serious drawback as a dynamical downscaling framework is expected to connect large-scale forcing to local-scale phenomena. The WRF model employing spectral nudging is largely free from the aforementioned problems. A pair of sensitivity simulations suggests that spectral nudging is the key to improving the dynamics of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature. Our results also demonstrate the effectiveness of Rossby wave diagnostics that allow for realistic background flows for assessing the credibility of dynamical downscaling over North America, where incoming Rossby waves propagate through complex circulation patterns before traveling across the continent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of a two-zone zero-dimensional mixing model for actively fueled prechamber engines

In this numerical work, a zero-dimensional, two-zone mixing model was developed and validated to capture the mixture preparation process of an actively fueled prechamber engine. The model was developed for ethanol-gasoline fuel blends but is applicable to various fuels of interest relevant to prechamber applications. The model was exercised to demonstrate the effects of boundary conditions, fuel composition, and residual content on the mixture stoichiometry predictions. The 0D model showed reasonable agreement in prechamber equivalence ratio predictions with higher fidelity computational fluid dynamics modeling, but the accuracy of model was constrained to the governing assumptions of the injection process. The modeling assumptions surrounding the non-dimensional injection of mass into the prechamber were scrutinized to identify key areas of model improvement. The results indicate heat transfer effects play a crucial role in the evaporation of the fuel within the confined auxiliary chamber, especially when considering fuels with high latent heat of vaporization. Additionally, the presence of fuel films that collect on the prechamber surfaces complicated the modeled evaporative cooling loses as the modeling suggests the films evaporate primarily by means of conduction from the boundary. Furthermore, the developed model serves as a simplified framework to generate calibration maps of prechamber fueling or run real time as an open loop control strategy such that desired prechamber mixture proportions are effectively targeted.

Zero-dimensional↗

Dislocation transmission across Σ3{112} incoherent twin boundary: a combined atomistic and phase-field study

Grain boundaries (GBs) in polycrystalline materials act as impediments to dislocation motion and result in strengthening. Understanding slip transmission through GBs, specifically twin boundaries, is essential to understand the plastic deformation behavior of polycrystalline fcc materials. Here the interaction between a glide dislocation and Σ3{112} incoherent twin boundary (ITB) in copper is investigated using a combined atomistic and mesoscale approach. The material parameters and structure of the GB in the mesoscale phase field dislocation dynamics (PFDD) model are informed from Molecular Statics (MS) simulations. The structural unit of the ITB consists of an array of three partial dislocations. The interaction between a glide dislocation impinging on each of the GB partial dislocations is investigated using both PFDD and Molecular Dynamics (MD) with two boundary conditions. Transmission planes predicted by both PFDD and MD (NVT) are in agreement, and show that not all transmission events are direct. Critical transmission stresses predicted by PFDD are in the range of 276 MPa to 1380 MPa, while MD predictions are in the range from 100 MPa to 700 MPa. The PFDD and MD predictions of slip transmission are explained using dislocation theory based on isotropic linear elasticity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Measurement placement in electric power transmission and distribution grids: Review of concepts, methods, and research needs

Sensing and measurement systems are quintessential to the safe and reliable operation of electric power grids. Their strategic placement is of ultimate importance because it is not economically viable to install measurement systems on every node and branch of a power grid, though they need to be monitored. An overwhelming number of strategies have been developed to meet oftentimes multiple conflicting objectives. The prime challenge in formulating the problem lies in developing a heuristic or an optimisation model that, though mathematically tractable and constrained in cost, leads to trustworthy technical solutions. Further, large-scale, long-term deployments pose additional challenges because the boundary conditions change as technologies evolve. For instance, the advent of new technologies in sensing and measurement, as well as in communications and networking, might impact the cost and performance of available solutions and shift initially set conditions. Also, the placement strategies developed for transmission grids might not be suitable for distribution grids, and vice versa, because of unique characteristics; therefore, the strategies need to be flexible, to a certain extent, because no two power grids are alike. Despite the extensive literature on the present topic, the focus of published works tends to be on a specific subject, such as the optimal placement of measurements to ensure observability in transmission grids. There is a dearth of work providing a comprehensive picture for developing optimal placement strategies. Because of the ongoing efforts on the modernisation of electric power grids, there is a need to consolidate the status quo while exposing its limitations to inform policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers on the research-and-development needs to push the boundaries for innovation. Accordingly, this paper first reviews the state-of-the-art considering both transmission and distribution grids. Then, it consolidates the key factors to be considered in the problem formulation. Finally, it provides a set of perspectives on the measurement placement problem, and it concludes with future research directions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Preparing exact eigenstates of the open XXZ chain on a quantum computer

The open spin-1/2 XXZ spin chain with diagonal boundary magnetic fields is the paradigmatic example of a quantum integrable model with open boundary conditions. Here, we formulate a quantum algorithm for preparing Bethe states of this model, corresponding to real solutions of the Bethe equations. The algorithm is probabilistic, with a success probability that decreases with the number of down spins. For a Bethe state of L spins with M down spins, which contains a total of $(^{L}_{M})$ $2^{M} M!$ terms, the algorithm requires L+M 2 +2M qubits.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Physics-Informed Neural Network Modeling of Li-Ion Batteries: Preprint

Li-ion batteries (LIB) are a promising solution to enable storage of intermittent energy sources due to their high energy density. However, LIBs are known to significantly degrade after about 1000 charge-discharge cycles. LIBs degrade following different degradation modes and at a rate that depends on the operating conditions (external temperature, load). To plan the installation of batteries, appropriate understanding and prediction capabilities of their lifecycle is needed. High-fidelity numerical models of LIBs such as the pseudo-two-dimensional (P2D) model have been shown to accurately represent the charge-discharge-cycle of an LIB given ac- curate choice of the physical parameters. Given the large number of P2D parameters, adjusting them using forward runs is intractable. This work describes the development of a physics-informed neural network (PINN) as a surrogate substitute of the P2D model that captures parameter dependence. The PINN is advantageous as it needs little to no data, and can naturally encode the dependence of every model parameter. Here, a specific training procedure is adopted to efficiently cover parameter space, handle model stiffness and enforce boundary conditions. The trained PINN is validated against numerical solutions of the P2D model, and its applicability to battery degradation modeling is discussed.

battery degradation↗

Technical descriptions of the experimental dynamical downscaling simulations over North America by the CAM–MPAS variable-resolution model

Abstract. Comprehensive assessment of climate datasets is important for communicating model projections and associated uncertainties to stakeholders. Uncertainties can arise not only from assumptions and biases within the model but also from external factors such as computational constraint and data processing. To understand sources of uncertainties in global variable-resolution (VR) dynamical downscaling, we produced a regional climate dataset using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS; dynamical core version 4.0) coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM; version 5.4), which we refer to as CAM–MPAS hereafter. This document provides technical details of the model configuration, simulations, computational requirements, post-processing, and data archive of the experimental CAM–MPAS downscaling data. The CAM–MPAS model is configured with VR meshes featuring higher resolutions over North America as well as quasi-uniform-resolution meshes across the globe. The dataset includes multiple uniform- (240 and 120 km) and variable-resolution (50–200, 25–100, and 12–46 km) simulations for both the present-day (1990–2010) and future (2080–2100) periods, closely following the protocol of the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment. A deviation from the protocol is the pseudo-warming experiment for the future period, using the ocean boundary conditions produced by adding the sea surface temperature and sea-ice changes from the low-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to the present-day ocean state from a reanalysis product. Some unique aspects of global VR models are evaluated to provide background knowledge to data users and to explore good practices for modelers who use VR models for regional downscaling. In the coarse-resolution domain, strong resolution sensitivity of the hydrological cycles exists over the tropics but does not appear to affect the midlatitude circulations in the Northern Hemisphere, including the downscaling target of North America. The pseudo-warming experiment leads to similar responses of large-scale circulations to the imposed radiative and boundary forcings in the CAM–MPAS and MPI-ESM-LR models, but their climatological states in the historical period differ over various regions, including North America. Such differences are carried to the future period, suggesting the importance of the base state climatology. Within the refined domain, precipitation statistics improve with higher resolutions, and such statistical inference is verified to be negligibly influenced by horizontal remapping during post-processing. Limited (≈50 % slower) throughput of the current code is found on a recent many-core/wide-vector high-performance computing system, which limits the lengths of the 12–46 km simulations and indirectly affects sampling uncertainty. Our experience shows that global and technical aspects of the VR downscaling framework require further investigations to reduce uncertainties for regional climate projection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The effect of current and lambda on white-etch-crack failures

White etching cracks (WECs) have been associated with premature failure of wind turbine roller bearings. Various drivers for the generation of WECs have been identified such as loading conditions, slip, steel quality, lubrication, hydrogen embrittlement, corrosion fatigue cracking, and stray electrical currents passing through the surface. Here, in this work, a benchtop test rig utilizing a three-ring-on-roller test configuration was used to investigate the effect of electrical current and operation in different lubricating regimes, defined by lambda (λ), on high-quality bearing steel samples tested in a commercially available power transmission EP gear lubricant. It was observed that there is an inverse correlation between the magnitude of electric current applied to the ring/ roller system and time-to-failure. Higher current magnitudes lead to shorter time-to-failure than lower current magnitudes, with macropitting as the main failure mode. Sub-surface investigation revealed the presence of WECs in all cases. For the same current magnitude, tests conducted in boundary and mixed lubrication regimes showed that time-to-failure increased as lambda increased, and the tests resulted in WEC related macropits, whereas tests conducted in near-hydrodynamic regime resulted in surface damage with no macropit. It was also noted that a shift toward near-hydrodynamic lubrication resulted in a distinct surface distress on the roller surface. Furthermore, there seems to be a transition in the mixed regime during which the surface distress occurred. The damage on the surface of the test samples resembled non-spatially, periodic, groove-like corrugations and, in some cases, crater-like depressions. Sub-surface imaging, performed by sequential sectioning, revealed the presence of WECs in all cases, and broad, branching cracks that were more prevalent under the more severe boundary conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Development and Validation of MALAMUTE model for Electric Field Assisted Sintering of Structural Materials

Fusion power plant designs feature extreme material performance requirements for structural material candidates. In addition to conventional alloys, more advanced composites and oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) alloys are being explored, however, achieving the desired microstructures to maximize performance using traditional manufacturing methods can be challenging. The advanced manufacturing (AM) electric field-assisted sintering (EFAS) technique offers improved control over the final microstructure through higher heating and cooling rates and moderate pressures. Modeling and simulation tools show promise in elucidating the process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation for AM-produced parts, including the EFAS process. An inherently multiscale process, the EFAS technique aligns well with the multiscale modeling capability of the open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)[cite]. We present here an electro-thermo-mechanical approach to modeling the EFAS process using the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) code. Prediction of the field and gradient distributions across the EFAS tooling is required to accurately describe the conditions for the lower-scale microstructural evolution models. In this work we present the MALAMUTE model developed to predict the electrical potential, temperature, and mechanical stress distribution across the EFAS graphite tooling and part at the larger engineering-scale. Validation of the MALAMUTE engineering-scale model is completed using data from experimental densification and pre-densified runs of iron powder via EFAS at 1000oC. These runs were conducted using a Thermal Technology DCS-5 EFAS system. Data collected during the experiment runs include the direct current (DC) supplied to the graphite tooling, the temperature of the graphite tooling as measured with a pyrometer, and the force applied to the top of the graphite tooling stack, and the data were recorded every 10 seconds. Our validation approach used the current and force data from the EFAS run as boundary condition inputs to the MAMALUTE simulation; the temperature data were used to evaluate the MALAMUTE EFAS model prediction. Results of the MALAMUTE simulations are employed to connect the external pyrometer temperature measurement to the temperature profile across the part undergoing consolidation. We investigate the impact of material property variation and mesh deformation on the temperature profile as predicted by MALAMUTE. We conclude by highlighting projects where the MALAMUTE EFAS modeling and simulation capabilities will be used to assist experimental design.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Network Uncertainty Quantification for Analysis of Multi-Component Systems

To impact physical mechanical system design decisions and realize the full promise of high-fidelity computational tools, simulation results must be integrated at the earliest stages of the design process. This is particularly challenging when dealing with uncertainty and optimizing for system-level performance metrics, as full-system models (often notoriously expensive and time-consuming to develop) are generally required to propagate uncertainties to system-level quantities of interest. Methods for propagating parameter and boundary condition uncertainty in networks of interconnected components hold promise for enabling design under uncertainty in real-world applications. These methods avoid the need for time consuming mesh generation of full-system geometries when changes are made to components or subassemblies. Additionally, they explicitly tie full-system model predictions to component/subassembly validation data which is valuable for qualification. These methods work by leveraging the fact that many engineered systems are inherently modular, being comprised of a hierarchy of components and subassemblies that are individually modified or replaced to define new system designs. By doing so, these methods enable rapid model development and the incorporation of uncertainty quantification earlier in the design process. The resulting formulation of the uncertainty propagation problem is iterative. We express the system model as a network of interconnected component models, which exchange solution information at component boundaries. We present a pair of approaches for propagating uncertainty in this type of decomposed system and provide implementations in the form of an open-source software library. We demonstrate these tools on a variety of applications and demonstrate the impact of problem-specific details on the performance and accuracy of the resulting UQ analysis. This work represents the most comprehensive investigation of these network uncertainty propagation methods to date.

42 ENGINEERING↗

How AI Predicts the Untrained and Unseen

Focus Area: Model predictability improvements (Primary); Data optimization (secondary); Data complexity insights (secondary). The Scientific Challenge: If we believe that a future under extreme conditions will look very differently from today, we can likely agree that ML/AI models trained on past and present datasets will not be adequate to make reliable predictions into the future. This is true for water cycling, as well as biogeochemistry and other Earth system components and behaviors. Additionally, ML/AI models are inherently non-physical. Despite the flourishing success of ML/AI in many applications, such as computer vision, natural language process, and gaming, even the most sophisticated AI models don’t understand the very basic physical laws. Therefore, a natural question is: Can we trust ML/AI based predictions of Earth system behaviors that are fundamentally driven by physical laws? So, are physics models with meticulous process representation a better choice? Not exactly. Physical models, when firmly rooted in first principles, work great at predicting behaviors of systems with a well-defined set of boundary conditions and variables. However, as a complex system, the number of parameters and the degree of complexity and dynamics in processes, coupling, and scale dependent emergent behaviors make the Earth system behaviors very challenging to predict with physical models composed of deterministic laws. In addition, due to the lack of fundamental understandings, physical models often implement empirical correlations derived from observations with biases from locality of data generation. Because correlation is not necessarily causation or comply with first principles, scaling of model predictions beyond locality is often invalid. Beyond the limitation of models, physics or AI, our knowledge of the Earth system is limited by the lack of observational technologies and resources. Insufficient data density, dimensionality and diversity only offer a sliced (or projected) view of the Earth system, e.g. Plato’s Cave analogy, limiting our capability to better understand and represent fundamental processes in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the Dynamics of Energetic Protons in Earth's Inner Magnetosphere

Recently, Van Allen Probes data have revealed the interesting energy-dependent dynamics of energetic protons in Earth's inner magnetosphere. To quantify the role of radial diffusion and charge exchange to the observed energy-dependent dynamics of ring current protons, a 1D radial diffusion model with charge exchange loss is implemented. The observed proton flux over the long-term period of November 2012 to September 2013 is first converted to phase space densities, which are then simulated by our model driven by an outer boundary condition at L* = 5.5 derived from the data. The simulation results show that our model generally captures the transport and acceleration of energetic protons at μ = 30, 50, and 80 MeV/G and K = 0.11 G 1/2 R E , suggesting that radial diffusion is the dominant source mechanism for >75 keV protons at L* = 3.5–5.5. Additionally, the observed fast decay of protons at lower μ and slow decay at higher μ are well captured by the model, demonstrating the dominant role of charge exchange in explaining the observed energy-dependent proton decay. For higher μ protons, prompt losses of protons on the time scale of hours are observed over a wide range of L*, which is too fast to be explained by charge exchange. Some of the prompt losses at high L* regions are reproduced by the model with outward radial diffusion to the outer boundary. However, many prompt losses observed at lower L* regions are not captured by the model, which could be due to other loss mechanisms including electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave scattering and field line curvature scattering.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Simulation and Analysis on Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) subjected to Pressurized Thermal Shock (PTS) under SBLOCA scenario by using Cardinal to support the fracture mechanics analyses

The structural components that comprise nuclear reactors and their supporting structures are subjected to harsh operating environments that can challenge their integrity, especially after exposure for extended durations or under accident condition. As one of the most significant components of a Reactor, the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) is exposed to an aggressive environment during the operation time (e.g. more than 40 years). Ageing degradation mechanisms (e.g. thermos-fatigue) could grow initial defects up to a critical size, increasing the susceptibility to failure in the RPV. The conventional methods are mostly based on simple crack and structure geometries. Very limited studies consider the real conditions of the RPV subjected to a thermal shock due to a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). During a LOCA event, the most severe conditions take place when the emergency core cooling (ECC) water is injected inside the cold legs filled initially with hotter water and/or steam. The rapid cooling of the down-comer and the internal RPV surface followed probably by re-pressurization of the RPV causes large temperature gradients and variation of pressure which induces thermal-mechanical stresses. In order to develop the model for integrity assessment of a reactor pressure vessel (RPV) subjected to pressurized thermal shock (PTS), a multi-physics simulation, which includes the thermo-hydraulic, thermo-mechanical and fracture mechanics analyses is necessary. The multi-physics simulations are performed using Cardinal, a wrapping of the GPU-oriented spectral element Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code NekRS and other multi-physics sub-modules within the MOOSE framework. Cardinal now fully supports MOOSE stochastic perturbations of NekRS models with varying boundary conditions, initial conditions, material properties, and any other quantity which is defined by a kernel (such as coefficients in a momentum source model). The implementation is designed in a flexible manner so that scalar values are sent from MOOSE into a user scratch space in NekRS, which can then be applied for any purpose within the NekRS case files (both on the host and device). When modeling PTS, several factors can impact the results significantly. In this report, the impacts of the geometry of the model, Reynolds number and buoyancy effect are investigated. Two geometry, i.e., a simplified model and a realistic RPV model, with both laminar and turbulent flow condition are adopted for the PTS simulation with and without buoyancy effect. The purpose of the investigation is to understand the impact of these factors on the prediction of temperature history of RPV. The accurate prediction on the temperature evolution, which will be exported to Grizzly code for further analyses on the progression of aging mechanisms and their effects on the integrity of RPV structures, is very crucial. Based on the understanding of these factors, a more sophisticated model is built to analysis the PTS under SBLOCA scenario. A literature survey is conducted to pick the SBLOCA scenario for the multi-physics simulation. The analysis helps to explain the form and the transformation of the cold plum when the ECC is activated under SBLOCA. This model can be can be applied to study the PTS effect for different RPV configurations. The results can help to assess structural component degradation for advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Data Projection of the High Temperature Electrolysis System in the Dynamic Energy Transport and Integration Laboratory using Dynamic System Scaling

For nuclear power to be flexible in a functioning Integrated Energy System (IES), excess produced heat must be stored or utilized during times of low power demand to ensure a load factor of 1 while load balancing. The Dynamic Energy Transport and Integration Laboratory (DETAIL) is one facility that is under development to emulate IES conditions on the engineering-scale, planned to conduct virtual real time operations with industry-scale facilities, and is currently testing thermal storage and high temperature electrolysis. As part of the study to develop a method to preprocess input signals or postprocess output signals between systems of different scales via Dynamical System Scaling (DSS), the current research is one of the continued efforts branching from the data projection activity conducted for the Thermal Energy Distribution System and currently engages the High Temperature Electrolysis (HTE) System in DETAIL. The HTE SOEC electrical, fluid, and thermal dynamics Figure of Merits (FOM) were identified, governing equations and closure relations were successfully scaled, and relations between FOM scaling ratios were determined. Setting the scaling objectives to reform existing data to project a data set that doubly accelerated the electrolysis process while preserving the produced amount of hydrogen was generated for the full transient. The calculated boundary conditions were inlet temperature, stack current, and inlet steam mass flow rate at 1470 K, 121.1 A, and 1.886 g/s, respectively. The research outcomes demonstrated an output signal postprocessing case accelerating the hydrogen production without changing geometry, number of cells, and partial pressures.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Leaf Wax Hydrogen Isotopes Reflect Storm Track Position Over Western North America

Proxy records of past climates have yielded powerful insights into regional hydroclimate dynamics. Novel insights may be gained by reconstructing spatiotemporal changes in precipitation isotopologues in past climate states that cannot be gleaned from individual site‐level studies. In this paper, we ask whether latitudinal gradients in the stable hydrogen isotopic composition of precipitation, as inferred from sedimentary leaf wax biomarkers, reflect aspects of large‐scale climate conditions in western North America (WNA). Modern coretop samples from offshore WNA show that leaf wax hydrogen isotopes broadly track the hydrogen isotopic composition of rainfall between 20 and 40N, but with an offset corresponding to a relatively constant “apparent fractionation” value. Poleward of 40N, the leaf wax signal may be complicated by fluvial transport of leaf waxes from the continental interior. Leaf wax‐inferred precipitation hydrogen isotopes show a shift to more negative values between 30 and 40N. We use modern observational data to show that this latitudinal range marks a major transition between the subtropical arid zone and the location of the midlatitude storm tracks over the northeast Pacific. Nudged water isotope‐enabled models capture the location of the arid to mesic climate transition with fidelity. This modern data set suggests that reconstructions of the latitudinal gradient of precipitation hydrogen isotopes can constrain the sensitivity of the storm tracks to shifts in climatic boundary conditions in past climate states. This approach can yield novel insights into past, present, and future hydroclimate variability in this arid region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Null Space Monte Carlo Evaluation of the Plateau to River Model

The Plateau to River Groundwater Model (P2R Model) is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1-1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model provides a computational framework to simulate the F&T of contaminants in groundwater associated with the 200-PO-1, 200-UP-1, 200-BP-5, and 200-ZP-1 Groundwater Operable Units (OUs) in the Hanford Site Central Plateau. In addition, the model includes adjacent areas and facilities (e.g., the State Approved Land Disposal Site). Intended and anticipated uses of the model include calculating water levels, hydraulic gradients, and groundwater flows throughout the model domain (encompassing the 200 West and 200 East Areas) for use in subsequent F&T calculations for contaminants of concern and developing scale-appropriate, telescopic-mesh refinement models for detailed evaluation of areas within the model domain where required. The overall objective of the modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed remedial action decisions based on descriptions of current and expected future contaminant concentrations in groundwater at decision points within the OU boundaries. The objective for the model development phase is to create a common modeling platform that can be used for investigations of the Central Plateau groundwater OUs and areas downgradient toward the Columbia River. The P2R Model calibration to historical data observed at the Hanford Site is documented in CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3. The purpose of this environmental calculation is to describe a null space Monte Carlo (NSMC) evaluation was conducted with the historic calibration of the P2R model. Use of numerical groundwater models is always accompanied with uncertainty in the results produced by a model because models are approximations of reality. Thus, by definition, lack the detail to fully represent observed behavior. Use of numerical techniques, such as a NSMC analysis, can help in identifying and quantifying the potential uncertainties associated with a numerical model such as the P2R Model. Use of the NSMC approach results in 100 groundwater flow models that are variants of the calibrated P2R Model. These variant models can be used to evaluate uncertainty in model predictions made by the calibrated P2R Model for other analyses. A secondary purpose of the environmental calculation is to establish these variant models for use with other applications.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Thermochemical reduction modeling in a high-temperature moving-bed reactor for energy storage: 1D model

The design of robust and efficient high-temperature thermochemical reactors and determination of operating conditions are critical steps toward enabling high-efficiency long-duration solar energy storage. This work presents a computational model for the thermal reduction of a metal oxide material (Mg-Mn-O) up to 1450 °C and the coupled complex transport phenomena in a novel tubular thermal reactor design that features the capability for a high extent-of-reduction (high energy storage density) and inherent heat recuperation. A one-dimensional model coupling counter-current gas–solid flow, two-phase heat transfer, thermochemical redox reactions, and species transport in a moving-bed reactor is developed. Simplified versions of the model are validated with published results in the literature for packed beds with both inert and reactive particles; the fully coupled model is also validated with experimental measurements of a moving-bed reactor in terms of local temperatures and oxygen release at the exit. Detailed comparisons on the effects of different boundary conditions in the reaction zone (prescribed wall temperature vs. heat flux conditions) and formulations based on a simple uniform flow assumption vs. plug flow using Ergun equation for gas flow are investigated. The results are compared with experimental measurements, and for all cases, the energy flow components in the reactor system and the thermal to chemical conversion efficiency and overall system efficiency are computed. Finally, the predicted high thermal-to-chemical efficiency ~95% and system efficiency ~30% agree with experimental measurements.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗