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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

Performance Results on CPU/GPU Exascale Architectures for OMEGA: The Ocean Model for E3SM Global Applications

The US Department of Energy (DOE) conducts climate simulations on some of the world’s largest supercomputers. These exascale machines use heterogeneous architectures with both CPUs and GPUs, and scientific codes must adapt to make full use of this computing power. Los Alamos National Lab is developing Omega: The Ocean Model for E3SM Global Applications, which is specifically designed for modern exascale computers. It uses external libraries that have been optimized for a variety of architectures to run on different supercomputers. Omega is an unstructured-mesh ocean model based on TRiSK numerical methods. It will be the new ocean component of the DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The algorithms in Omega follow those of the current ocean component, MPAS-Ocean, but it will be written in C++ rather than Fortran to take advantage of the Kokkos performance portability library. Omega spatial operators are written as Kokkos kernels to run efficiently on both CPUs and GPUs. Work on Omega began in 2023 with a new C++ framework for unstructured mesh partitioning, halo exchanges, parallel IO, and Kokkos interfaces. The current version, Omega-0, is being developed to solve the shallow water equations and at present includes all of the tendency terms but not time stepping. Here we share the results of Omega-0 verification and performance testing. Verification includes unit tests implemented with CTest as well as convergence tests in Polaris, an in-house python package with a large suite of test problems. Performance tests compare simulations conducted on CPUs versus GPUs and across different architectures: tests are run on Frontier, which has AMD “Optimized 3rd Gen EPYC” CPUs and AMD MI250X GPUs, as well as Perlmutter, which is composed of AMD EPYC 7763 CPUs and NVIDIA A100 GPUs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

UAS remote sensing (Osprey platform): Red-green-blue (RGB) imagery, thermal infrared (TIR) imagery, and canopy reflectance, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2017

Airborne remote sensing data collected using the Brookhaven National Laboratory's (BNL) heavy-lift unoccupied aerial system (UAS) octocopter platform - the Osprey - operated by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and Technology (TEST) group (https://www.bnl.gov/testgroup). This package includes raw (L0) data from 14 flights flown over the NGEE-Arctic Council Mile Marker 71 (MM71), Kougarok MM64, and Teller MM 27 sites in August, 2017. The Osprey is a multi-sensor UAS platform that simultaneously measures very high spatial resolution optical red/green/blue (RGB) and thermal infrared (TIR) surface "skin" temperature imagery, as well as near-surface surface reflectance at 1 nm intervals in the visible to near-infrared spectral range from ~350-1000 nm measured at regular intervals along each flight path. This package provides the Level 0 (raw, unprocessed) data collected by the Osprey platform. Ancillary aircraft data, flight mission parameters, and general flight conditions provided by the onboard flight and data collection computers are also included. Data and metadata are provided as text (*.txt, *.json), tabular (*.dat, *.csv, *.waypoint), and image (*.jpg) formats. This metadata documents contain flight campaign, platform, sensor, flight and file metadata, along with a description of the L0 data and the file naming scheme. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding and modeling current and future coastal wetland methane dynamics (Final Report)

The coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface (TAI) is a highly dynamic component of the Earth system that plays a critical role in biogeochemical cycling. Due to its dynamic nature, the processes that regulate decomposition and methane (CH 4 ) emissions are of greater significance at the TAI than in upland systems. Despite this, we have limited mechanistic understanding of how climate stressors interact to regulate the electron acceptors and donors that determine decomposition pathways within TAIs, including the generation of hot spots and hot moments. Accurately modeling these processes is critical for incorporating the coastal TAI into Earth systems models, such as DOE’s E3SM. With previous DOE support, we adapted an aerobic terrestrial representation of decomposition using PFLOTRAN, a reactive flow and transport model, and added anerobic decomposition pathways, salinity, and oxygen (O 2 ) that fluctuates independently of water table level. However, because this model (PFLOTRAN TAI ) is based on decomposition rates and organic matter carbon to nitrogen ratios from terrestrial systems, its performance in TAI systems is currently limited by the lack of empirical data to properly parameterize variables. In addition, while PFLOTRAN TAI can simulate movement of O 2 into sediments, it is not currently capable of tracking the movement of CH 4 gas through plant tissues due to both current model structure and lack of available data. Our overall objective of the project was the increase our mechanistic understanding of CH 4 dynamics in response to environmental change, such that we can improve the representation of these dynamics in PFLOTRAN. We installed automated flux chambers in a new field-scale active soil warming experiment and set up marsh organs (mesocosms) to test effects of warming, flooding, and salinity. This resulted in a new dataset consisting of chamber-level CH 4 flux measurements across multiple sites, ecological conditions, and timeframes, as well as corresponding measurements on porewater chemistry, soil carbon quality, plant biomass, and redox reaction rates. Using these data, we improved PFLOTRAN TAI to more accurately model CH 4 dynamics and successfully tested our hypotheses. This grant contributed to the professional development of 3 postdocs, 4 undergraduate interns, 4 teacher interns, 17 technicians, and 15 participatory scientists. The automated chamber technology designed for this grant has also been shared with multiple new projects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights of warm-cloud biases in Community Atmospheric Model 5 and 6 from the single-column modeling framework and Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) observations

There has been a growing concern that most climate models predict precipitation that is too frequent, likely due to lack of reliable subgrid variability and vertical variations in microphysical processes in low-level warm clouds. In this study, the warm-cloud physics parameterizations in the singe-column configurations of NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 6 and 5 (SCAM6 and SCAM5, respectively) are evaluated using ground-based and airborne observations from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign near the Azores islands during 2017–2018. The 8-month single-column model (SCM) simulations show that both SCAM6 and SCAM5 can generally reproduce marine boundary layer cloud structure, major macrophysical properties, and their transition. The improvement in warm-cloud properties from the Community Atmospheric Model 5 and 6 (CAM5 to CAM6) physics can be found through comparison with the observations. Meanwhile, both physical schemes underestimate cloud liquid water content, cloud droplet size, and rain liquid water content but overestimate surface rainfall. Modeled cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations are comparable with aircraft-observed ones in the summer but are overestimated by a factor of 2 in winter, largely due to the biases in the long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols like sulfate. We also test the newly recalibrated autoconversion and accretion parameterizations that account for vertical variations in droplet size. Compared to the observations, more significant improvement is found in SCAM5 than in SCAM6. This result is likely explained by the introduction of subgrid variations in cloud properties in CAM6 cloud microphysics, which further suppresses the scheme's sensitivity to individual warm-rain microphysical parameters. The predicted cloud susceptibilities to CCN perturbations in CAM6 are within a reasonable range, indicating significant progress since CAM5 which produces an aerosol indirect effect that is too strong. The present study emphasizes the importance of understanding biases in cloud physics parameterizations by combining SCM with in situ observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rainbows and Climate Change: A tutorial on climate model diagnostics and parameterization

Earth System Models (ESMs) must represent processes below the grid scale of a model using representations (parameterizations) of physical and chemical processes. As a tutorial exercise to understand diagnostics and parameterization, this work presents a representation of rainbows for an ESM: the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Using the 'state' of the model, basic physical laws, and some assumptions, we generate a representation of this unique optical phenomena as a diagnostic output. Rainbow occurrence and it's possible changes are related to cloud occurrence and rain formation which are critical uncertainties for climate change prediction. The work highlights issues which are typical of many diagnostics parameterizations such as assumptions, uncertain parameters and the difficulty of evaluation against uncertain observations. Results agree qualitatively with limited available global 'observations' of Rainbows. Rainbows are seen in expected locations in the sub-tropics over the ocean where broken clouds and frequent precipitation occurs. The diurnal peak is in the morning over ocean and in the evening over land. The representation of rainbows is found to be quantitatively sensitive to the assumed amount of cloudiness and the amount of stratiform rain. Rainbows are projected to have decreased, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere, due to aerosol pollution effects increasing cloud coverage since 1850. In the future, continued climate change is projected to decrease cloud cover, associated with a positive cloud feedback. As a result the rainbow diagnostic projects that rainbows will increase in the future, with the largest changes at mid-latitudes. The diagnostic may be useful for assessing cloud parameterizations, and is an exercise in how to build and test parameterizations of atmospheric phenomena.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Novel estimation of aerosol processes with particle size distribution measurements: a case study with the TOMAS algorithm v1.0.0

Atmospheric aerosol microphysical processes are a significant source of uncertainty in predicting climate change. Specifically, aerosol nucleation, emissions, and growth rates, which are simulated in chemical transport models to predict the particle size distribution, are not understood well. However, long-term size distribution measurements made at several ground-based sites across Europe implicitly contain information about the processes that created those size distributions. This work aims to extract that information by developing and applying an inverse technique to constrain aerosol emissions as well as nucleation and growth rates based on hourly size distribution measurements. We developed an inverse method based upon process control theory into an online estimation technique to scale aerosol nucleation, emissions, and growth so that the model–measurement bias in three measured aerosol properties exponentially decays. The properties, which are calculated from the measured and predicted size distributions, used to constrain aerosol nucleation, emission, and growth rates are the number of particles with a diameter between 3 and 6 nm, the number with a diameter greater than 10 nm, and the total dry volume of aerosol ( N 3–6 , N 10 , V dry ), respectively. In this paper, we focus on developing and applying the estimation methodology in a zero-dimensional “box” model as a proof of concept before applying it to a three-dimensional simulation in subsequent work. The methodology is first tested on a dataset of synthetic and perfect measurements that span diverse environments in which the true particle emissions, growth, and nucleation rates are known. The inverse technique accurately estimates the aerosol microphysical process rates with an average and maximum error of 2 % and 13 %, respectively. Next, we investigate the effect that measurement noise has on the estimated rates. The method is robust to typical instrument noise in the aerosol properties as there is a negligible increase in the bias of the estimated process rates. Finally, the methodology is applied to long-term datasets of in situ size distribution measurements in western Europe from May 2006 through June 2007. At Melpitz, Germany, and Hyytiälä, Finland, the average diurnal profiles of estimated 3 nm particle formation rates are reasonable, having peaks near noon local time with average peak values of 1 and 0.15 cm –3 s –1 , respectively. The normalized absolute error in estimated N 3–6 , N 10 , and V dry at three European measurement sites is less than 15 %, showing that the estimation framework developed here has potential to decrease model–measurement bias while constraining uncertain aerosol microphysical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating E3SM Global Storm‐Resolving Model Simulations of Deep Convection: Insights From DP‐SCREAM During TRACER

Global Storm-Resolving Models (GSRMs) are becoming increasingly vital for advancing climate modeling and improving the prediction of extreme weather events. Houston, a coastal region frequently affected by deep convective storms, offers an ideal setting to evaluate the ability of GSRMs to simulate deep convection. This study assesses the performance of the Doubly Periodic Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM (Energy Exascale Earth System Model) Atmosphere Model (DP-SCREAM) using observations from the TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) campaign. DP-SCREAM effectively reproduces the diurnal cycles of clouds and precipitation, demonstrating much greater skill than the E3SM single column model. The DP-SCREAM is demonstrated to be applicable to coastal regions, partially due to the forcing data sets already capturing the influence of breezes. DP-SCREAM also replicates biases persistent in the global version of SCREAM: the underrepresentation of boundary layer shallow clouds, a lack of mid-level congestus clouds, and the popcorn convection, characterized by small and disorganized convective cells generating the strongest precipitation. To investigate these issues, two sensitivity experiments were conducted: increasing the mixing length and scaling up the buoyancy flux within the Simplified Higher Order Closure scheme. Increasing the mixing length improved mid-level congestus representation and reduced unrealistic early morning fog occurrence. Enhancing buoyancy flux only marginally improved the bias of underproduced big convective cells. In conclusion, an additional resolution sensitivity test at 0.5 km grid spacing demonstrated that a refined horizontal resolution alone is insufficient to resolve these biases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recalibration of missing low-frequency variability and trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract Multi-decadal trends in the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are under-represented by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), consistent with a lack of autocorrelation in their NAO index series. This study proposes and tests two simple “reddening” approaches for correcting this problem in simulated indices based on simple one parameter short-term (AR; Auto-Regressive order 1) and long-term (FD; Fractional-Difference) time series filters. Using CGCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the FD filter successfully improves the autocorrelation structure of the NAO, and in turn the simulation of extreme trends, while the AR filter is less successful. The 1963–1993 NAO trend is the maximum 31-year trend in the historical period. Raw CGCMs underestimate the likelihood of this trend by a factor of ten but this discrepancy is corrected after reddening. CMIP6 future projections show that long-term (2024–2094) NAO ensemble mean trends systematically increase with the magnitude of radiative forcing: -2.4 to 3.5 hPa/century for low-to-high forcing after reddening (more than double the range using raw output). The related likelihood of future maximum 31year trends comparable to 1963–1993 ranges from 3 to 7% whereas none of these CMIP6 projections simulate this without reddening. Near-term projections of the next 31 years (2024–2054) are less sensitive than long term trends to the future scenario, showing weak-to-no forced trend. However, reddening increases the ensemble range by 74% (to +/-1 standard deviation/decade), which could increase/decrease regional climate change signals in the Northern Hemisphere by magnitudes that are underestimated when using raw CGCM output.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Remote effects of Tibetan Plateau spring land temperature on global subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction and comparison with effects of sea surface temperature: the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I experiment

The prediction skill for precipitation anomalies in late spring and summer months—a significant component of extreme climate events—has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new idea that utilizes information on boreal spring land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) to improve prediction of subsequent summer droughts/floods over several regions over the world, East Asia and North America in particular. The work was performed in the framework of the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment, which focused on whether the TP LST/SUBT provides an additional source for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability. The summer 2003, when there were severe drought/flood over the southern/northern part of the Yangtze River basin, respectively, has been selected as the focus case. With the newly developed LST/SUBT initialization method, the observed surface temperature anomaly over the TP has been partially produced by the LS4P-I model ensemble mean, and 8 hotspot regions in the world were identified where June precipitation is significantly associated with anomalies of May TP land temperature. Consideration of the TP LST/SUBT effect has produced about 25–50% of observed precipitation anomalies in most hotspot regions. The multiple models have shown more consistency in the hotspot regions along the Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train. The mechanisms for the LST/SUBT effect on the 2003 drought over the southern part of the Yangtze River Basin are discussed. For comparison, the global SST effect has also been tested and 6 regions with significant SST effects were identified in the 2003 case, explaining about 25–50% of precipitation anomalies over most of these regions. This study suggests that the TP LST/SUBT effect is a first-order source of S2S precipitation predictability, and hence it is comparable to that of the SST effect. With the completion of the LS4P-I, the LS4P-II has been launched and the LS4P-II protocol is briefly presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Maps of Arctic vegetation leaf nitrogen concentration, albedo and plant functional type (PFT) derived from imaging spectroscopy data, Council watershed, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2019

Remote sensing maps of surface albedo, leaf nitrogen content, and plant functional types (PFTs) derived from NASA's Airborne Visible / Infrared Imaging Spectrometer Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science & Technology (TEST) group at Brookhaven National Laboratory. The AVIRIS-NG imaging spectroscopy data (380 ~ 2510 nm) was collected as a part of the collaboration between NASA's Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE; Miller et al., 2019) and DOE's Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment in the Arctic (NGEE-Arctic). This package includes maps for the NGEE-Arctic Council watershed created using AVIRIS-NG imagery collected on July 9th, 2019. The map data and metadata are provided as image (ENVI, *.png) and text (*.txt, *hdr) formats. Additional supporting map quicklooks are provided as *.png files and GIS *.kml files. Detailed description of the methods for each map are provided in this document. These datasets are provided in support of Figure 6 in Nelson et al., (2022), "Remote Sensing of Tundra Ecosystems using High Spectral Resolution Reflectance: Opportunities and Challenges". The full citation can be found within the references section. Note that the AVIRIS-NG leaf nitrogen product included in this dataset is a preliminary product and is provided for demonstration purposes only. It is not recommended that the map be used for scientific applications. For future updates on these products, please contact the authors.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of a water source heat pump hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing facility for smart building applications

Over the last decade, the global fight against climate change through electrification has led to an increase in research on building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems that utilize intelligent control algorithms to provide demand-side grid service while maintaining the thermal comfort of building occupants. As the pivotalpoint between building electricity consumption and indoor thermal comfort, high-efficiency electrical heatpumps are at the center of these emerging studies, and various grid-interactive and occupant-comfort control algorithms have been developed for them. The impact of these algorithms on the heatpump operation andperformance under different weather, building load, and grid requests calls for investigation and verification via experimental tests with actual heat pumps integrated with real-time building and grid responses. This study presents a Water-Source Heat Pump Hardware-in-The-Loop (HIL) Test Facility developed with the capability to perform such tests. The hardware configuration for this testfacility introduces a hydronic system that emulates the conditions for the heat pump water-side, and a duct system that emulates conditions for the heat pump airside. Both data acquisition and emulator control are implemented through the National Instruments (NI) LabVIEW software running on an NI PXIplatform. The HIL mechanism based on the hardware-software integration that allows the testbed to communicate with a generic simulation environment is also discussed. Currently, the test facility setup includes a single heatpump and virtual building model in EnergyPlus coupled with an occupant behavioral model in MATLAB. Preliminary test results of the current setup demonstrate the building load emulator's ability to track the simulated gone temperature with a Root Mean Square Deviation (RSME) below 0.12°C (0.216°F). An uncertainty analysis based on sensor accuracies shows that the heat pump coefficient of performance (COP) can be measured with a relative uncertainty of 10.4% in cooling and 3.7% in heating. Apartfrom the current testing on a single heat pump, the test facility also provides the flexibility to include additional heat pumps to form a heat pump cluster, as well as coupling the heat pump with active thermal storage to provide enhanced demandflexibility.

Calfa, Caleb↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation of evapotranspiration and yield of maize: An inter-comparison among 41 maize models

Accurate simulation of crop water use (evapotranspiration, ET) can help crop growth models to assess the likely effects of climate change on future crop productivity, as well as being an aid for irrigation scheduling for today's growers. To determine how well maize (Zea mays L.) growth models can simulate ET, an initial inter-comparison study was conducted in 2019 under the umbrella of AgMIP (Agricultural Model Inter-Comparison and Improvement Project). Herein, we present results of a second inter-comparison study of 41 maize models that was conducted using more comprehensive datasets from two additional sites - Mead, Nebraska, USA and Bushland, Texas, USA. There were 20 treatment-years with varying irrigation levels over multiple seasons at both sites. ET was measured using eddy covariance at Mead and using large weighing lysimeters at Bushland. A wide range in ET rates was simulated among the models, yet several generally were able to simulate ET rates adequately. The ensemble median values were generally close to the observations, but a few of the models sometimes performed better than the median. Many of the models that did well at simulating ET for the Mead site did poorly for drier, windy days at the Bushland site, suggesting they need to improve how they handle humidity and wind. Additional variability came from the approaches used to simulate soil water evaporation. Fortunately, several models were identified that did well at simulating soil water evaporation, canopy transpiration, biomass accumulation, and grain yield. These models were older and have been widely used, which suggests that a larger number of users have tested these models over a wider range of conditions leading to their improvement. These revelations of the better approaches are leading to model improvements and more accurate simulations of ET.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging High-resolution Molecular Composition of Soil Organic Matter to Enhance Carbon Cycling Modeling

Soils store more carbon than the atmosphere and vegetation combined, yet Earth system models still struggle to predict how this vast reservoir will respond to environmental change. A central limitation is that most soil biogeochemical models represent organic matter using bulk conceptual pools or chemically homogeneous fractions, preventing direct use of rapidly expanding molecular-scale datasets. Here we develop and test a new soil decomposition framework that explicitly integrates high-resolution information on organic matter composition. First, we construct a molecularly informed litter decomposition module in which plant inputs are partitioned into five functional compound classes—carbohydrates, proteins, lignin-like aromatics, lipids, and carbonyls—using a molecular mixing model calibrated to solid-state 13 C Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectra. Class-specific kinetics, lignin-dependent physical protection, and substrate-driven microbial carbon use efficiency allow the module to capture metabolic tradeoffs associated with enzyme production and nutrient limitation. We then embed this litter module within a microbially explicit whole-soil model that tracks the transformation of these compound classes through particulate organic matter, dissolved organic matter, mineral-associated organic matter, and microbial biomass. High-resolution Fourier Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data are used to link internal pools to measurable soil organic matter fractions and to constrain key process parameters. Applications at soil-core and ecosystem scales demonstrate that the new model reproduces observed soil respiration dynamics while providing mechanistic attribution of CO 2 fluxes to specific chemical classes and pools. Compared to existing frameworks such as the Community Land Model soil biogeochemistry module and the Millennial model, our approach maintains competitive predictive skill while substantially improving interpretability and opportunities for data–model integration. This work illustrates a viable pathway for leveraging molecular-scale observations to reduce structural uncertainty in soil carbon–climate feedback projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving solar panel durability through novel panel designs and advanced manufacturing equipment

Work in the project was spread across 4 main themes:1) Improved Understanding of Why Cracks Form and Cause Degradation in Solar Cells: We developed a finite element model which correlated well with experimental determined deflection vs load profiles and which predicted stress profiles vs load level and temperature. These profiles helped to guide brace designs and showed the high stress levels seen in the silicon near the interconnect wire locations as the temperature is cooled below -30C, likely forming "invisible" microcracks. Experiments showed how for polymer backsheet modules, a brief exposure to such low temperatures made modules extremely sensitive to propagation of these microcracks at relatively low load levels, and how thicker and softer encapsulant helped to reduce this crack sensitivity. We showed for some modules that most cracks that are seen under loading had their origin at short, hard to see, V-cracks from soldering damage, and how the shunting from cells with high densities of cracks reduces energy delivery more than Pmax. 2) Improved Durability Testing Methods With Respect to Cracked Cells: We lobbied the PV community throughout the project that IEC 61215 was insufficient to probe the sensitivity of module Pmax degradation due to cracks in that in did not have a test leg that included a crack creation step (static loading) followed by a crack opening step (cyclic loading and/or thermal cycling). We published extensively on how pre- existing cracks opened up with cyclic loading. The new IEC TS 63209-1 ED1 test sequence now include our recommendations, and this should lead to improved module designs and reduced risk for investors. We also published recommendations for a new "Cold Climate Test" sequence to probe the sensitivity of modules to degradation from short microcracks formed when modules see temperatures below -30C followed by front side loading. We participated in several USTAG meetings related to cracked cells, EL testing, and mechanical load testing and provided input to the group to improve new standards under consideration. We also showed how the act of performing an EL test can affect the test results due to heating from the injected current. 3) New Module Designs and Related Manufacturing Methods & Equipment: We demonstrated reduced crack sensitivity on encapsulated cell coupons the benefits of building protective compressive stress into the cells by laminating them in a bent state and then allowing the coupon to flatten out after lamination. Our attempts to scale this to the module level with a more manufacturable sequence did not demonstrate the same positive effects, but we hope that others will follow up with other variations on this bent lamination or bent cooling concept to make more durable modules. 4) New Module Mounting Designs: We explored a range of bracing concepts which pressed on the backsheet to slightly bow the glass outward and place cells in a state of protective compressive stress and to reduce the deflection under front side loads. These successfully reduced cell cracking and crack opening, but high static loads permanently deformed cost-effective braces, after which they provided little benefit. We settled on an elegant & effective solution – the RailPad, where lightweight bracing elements are placed between the mounting rail(s) and the backsheet, and the existing strength of the rails is used to prevent module deflection under load. New construction and retrofit designs were made, and test sites were implemented in FL and MA. We applied for RailPad patent protection.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrating Reanalysis and Satellite Cloud Information to Estimate Surface Downward Long-Wave Radiation

The estimation of downward long-wave radiation (DLR) at the surface is very important for the understanding of the Earth’s radiative budget with implications in surface–atmosphere exchanges, climate variability, and global warming. Theoretical radiative transfer and observationally based studies identify the crucial role of clouds in modulating the temporal and spatial variability of DLR. In this study, a new machine learning algorithm that uses multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and the combination of near-surface meteorological data with satellite cloud information is proposed. The new algorithm is compared with the current operational formulation used by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF). Both algorithms use near-surface temperature and dewpoint temperature along with total column water vapor from the latest European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis ERA5 and satellite cloud information from the Meteosat Second Generation. The algorithms are trained and validated using both ECMWF-ERA5 and DLR acquired from 23 ground stations as part of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility. Results show that the MARS algorithm generally improves DLR estimation in comparison with other model estimates, particularly when trained with observations. When considering all the validation data, root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 18.76, 23.55, and 22.08 W·m –2 are obtained for MARS, operational LSA-SAF, and ERA5, respectively. The added value of using the satellite cloud information is accessed by comparing with estimates driven by ERA5 total cloud cover, showing an increase of 17% of the RMSE. The consistency of MARS estimate is also tested against an independent dataset of 52 ground stations (from FLUXNET2015), further supporting the good performance of the proposed model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Landscape-scale Characterization of Arctic Tundra Vegetation Composition, Structure, and Function with a Multi-sensor Unoccupied Aerial System: Supporting Data.

Airborne remote sensing data collected using the Brookhaven National Laboratory's (BNL) heavy-lift unoccupied aerial system (UAS) octocopter platform, the Osprey, operated by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and Technology (TEST) group (https://www.bnl.gov/testgroup). This package includes data from three flights flown over the NGEE-Arctic Council, Kougarok and Teller sites in July, 2018. The Osprey is a multi-sensor UAS platform that simultaneously measures very high spatial resolution optical red/green/blue (RGB) and thermal infrared (TIR) surface 'skin' temperature imagery, as well as surface reflectance at 1 nm intervals in the visible to near-infrared spectral range 350 - 1000 nm measured at regular intervals along each flight path. Derived image products include ortho-mosaiced RGB and TIR images, an RGB-based digital surface model (DSM) using the structure from motion (SfM) technique, digital terrain model (DTM), and a canopy height model (CHM). In addition, a VNIR surface reflectance file is provided for the trigger locations collected during each flight campaign. Ancillary aircraft data, flight mission parameters, and general flight conditions provided by the onboard flight and data collection computers are also included. Unprocessed and processed data products are included in this package (processing levels 0-3). Data and metadata are provided as text (*.txt, *.json, *.kml, *hdr, *.enp), tabular (*.dat, *.csv, *.waypoint, ENVI format (no extension)), point cloud (*.laz) and image (*.jpg, *.tif, *png) formats. This metadata document contains flight campaign, instrument and file metadata, along with a description of data processing levels, data products and file naming scheme.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy?s Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Heterogeneous isotope effects decouple conifer leaf and branch sugar δ 18 O and δ 13 C

Isotope ratios of tree-ring cellulose are a prominent tool to reconstruct paleoclimate and plant responses to environmental variation. Current models for cellulose isotope ratios assume a transfer of the environmental signals recorded in bulk leaf water to carbohydrates and ultimately into stem cellulose. However, the isotopic signal of carbohydrates exported from leaf to branch may deviate from mean leaf values if spatial heterogeneity in isotope ratios exists in the leaf. We tested whether the isotopic heterogeneity previously observed along the length of a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) leaf water was preserved in photosynthetic products. We observed an increase in both sugar and bulk tissue δ 18 O values along the needle, but the increase in carbohydrate δ 18 O values was dampened relative to the trend observed in leaf water. In contrast, δ 13 C values of both sugar and bulk organic matter were invariant along the needle. Additionally, phloem-exported sugar measured in the branch below the needles did not match whole-needle values of δ 18 O or δ 13 C. Instead, there was a near-constant offset observed between the branch and needle sugar δ 13 C values, while branch δ 18 O values were most similar to δ 18 O values observed for sugar at the base of the needle. The observed offset between the branch and needle sugar δ 18 O values likely arises from partial isotope oxygen exchange between sugars and water during phloem loading and transport. An improved understanding of the conditions producing differential δ 13 C and δ 18 O isotope effects between branch phloem and needle sugars could improve tree-ring-based climate reconstructions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗