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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28
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NASA NTRS2005

Evidence of Urban-Induced Precipitation Variability in Arid Climate Regimes

Water is essential to life in the Earth system. The water cycle components that sustain life are becoming more scarce and polluted. The most recent (1999-2004) drought experienced in the southwestern United States is the seventh worst in the approximately 500-year proxy tree-ring record. As a result, many regions contemplated drought emergencies in which severe water restrictions are implemented. Though larger weather and climate processes likely control drought processes, there is increasing evidence that anthropogenic or human-related activities can significantly alter precipitation processes. Urbanization is an example of anthropogenic forcing. Recent studies continue to provide evidence that urban environments can modify or induce precipitation under a specific set of conditions. Arid and semi-arid regions of the southwestern United States and other parts of the world are rapidly developing and placing greater demands on the environmental system. In the past fifty years, Phoenix has expanded from a predominantly agricultural center to an urbanized region with extent 700 percent larger than its size in the middle of the twentieth century. Riyadh's population grew from about a half million people in 1972 to almost two million by 2000. Saudi Arabia experienced urbanization later than many other countries; in the early 1970s its urban-rural ratio was still about 1:3. By 1990 the ratio had reversed to about 3:l. In the mid-1970s Riyadh's population was increasing by about 10 percent a year. Irrigation also significantly increased between 1972 and 1990 southeast of Riyadh. The study employs a 108-year precipitation historical data record, global climate observing network observations and satellite data to identify possible anomalies in rainfall in and around two major arid urban areas, Phoenix, Arizona and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. It provides statistically sound evidence that rainfall distribution and magnitude is statistically different in post-urban than in pre-urban (1900-1950) Phoenix. The study hypothesis that a complex interaction between the city landscape, irrigated lands, and nearby mountains have created preferred regions for rainfall development. The study also provides early evidence that rapidly urbanizing parts of the arid Middle East may also be experiencing different precipitation regimes in response to urbanization and irrigation.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗
NASA NTRS1981

Solar diameter measurements for study of Sun climate coupling

Variability in solar shape and diameters was examined as a possible probe of an important climatic driving function, solar luminosity variability. The techniques and facilities developed for measuring the solar diameter were used. The observing program and the requisite data reduction were conducted simultaneously. The development of a technique to calibrate the scale in the telescope field progressed to the design and construction phase.

Hill, H. A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Assessment of Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100 Using NASA's MERRA and CMIP5 Simulations

Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile statistics to provide an assessment of potential building climate zone changes relative to the uncertainties demonstrated using MERRA. Findings and Conclusions: These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and a tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones in some limited regions. The CMIP analysis shows that models vary from relatively little building climate zone change for the least sensitive and conservation assumptions to a warming of at most 3 zones for certain areas, particularly the north central US by the end of the 21st century.

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Solar Variability in the Context of Other Climate Forcing Mechanisms

I compare and contrast climate forcings due to solar variability with climate forcings due to other mechanisms of climate change, interpretation of the role of the sun in climate change depends upon climate sensitivity and upon the net forcing by other climate change mechanisms. Among the potential indirect climate forcings due to solar variability, only that due to solar cycle induced ozone changes has been well quantified. There is evidence that the sun has been a significant player in past climate change on decadal to century time scales, and that it has the potential to contribute to climate change in the 21st century.

Hansen, James E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate: A Workshop Report

Solar irradiance, the flux of the Sun s output directed toward Earth, is Earth s main energy source.1 The Sun itself varies on several timescales over billions of years its luminosity increases as it evolves on the main sequence toward becoming a red giant; about every 11 years its sunspot activity cycles; and within just minutes flares can erupt and release massive amounts of energy. Most of the fluctuations from tens to thousands of years are associated with changes in the solar magnetic field. The focus of the National Research Council's September 2011 workshop on solar variability and Earth's climate, and of this summary report, is mainly magnetically driven variability and its possible connection with Earth's climate variations in the past 10,000 years. Even small variations in the amount or distribution of energy received at Earth can have a major influence on Earth's climate when they persist for decades. However, no satellite measurements have indicated that solar output and variability have contributed in a significant way to the increase in global mean temperature in the last 50 years. Locally, however, correlations between solar activity and variations in average weather may stand out beyond the global trend; such has been argued to be the case for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, even in the present day. A key area of inquiry deals with establishing a unified record of the solar output and solar-modified particles that extends from the present to the prescientific past. The workshop focused attention on the need for a better understanding of the links between indices of solar activity such as cosmogenic isotopes and solar irradiance. A number of presentations focused on the timescale of the solar cycle and of the satellite record, and on the problem of extending this record back in time. Highlights included a report of progress on pyroheliometer calibration, leading to greater confidence in the time history and future stability of total solar irradiance (TSI), and surprising results on changes in spectral irradiance over the last solar cycle, which elicited spirited discussion. New perspectives on connections between features of the quiet and active areas of the photosphere and variations in TSI were also presented, emphasizing the importance of developing better understanding in order to extrapolate back in time using activity indices. Workshop participants reviews highlighted difficulties as well as causes for optimism in current understanding of the cosmogenic isotope record and the use of observed variability in Sun-like stars in reconstructing variations in TSI occurring on lower frequencies than the sunspot cycle. The workshop succeeded in bringing together informed, focused presentations on major drivers of the Sun-climate connection. The importance of the solar cycle as a unique quasi-periodic probe of climate responses on a timescale between the seasonal and Milankovitch cycles was recognized in several presentations. The signal need only be detectable, not dominant, for it to play this role of a useful probe. Some workshop participants also found encouraging progress in the top-down perspective, according to which solar variability affects surface climate by first perturbing the stratosphere, which then forces the troposphere and surface. This work is now informing and being informed by research on tropospheric responses to the Antarctic ozone hole and volcanic aerosols. In contrast to the top-down perspective is the bottom-up view that the interaction of solar energy with the ocean and surface leads to changes in dynamics and temperature. During the discussion of how dynamical air-sea coupling in the tropical Pacific and solar variability interact from a bottom-up perspective, several participants remarked on the wealth of open research questions in the dynamics of the climatic response to TSI and spectral variability. The discussion of the paleoclimate record emphasized that the link between solar varbility and Earth s climate is multifaceted and that some components are understood better than others. According to two presenters on paleoclimate, there is a need to study the idiosyncrasies of each key proxy record. Yet they also emphasized that there may be an emerging pattern of paleoclimate change coincident with periods of solar activity and inactivity, but only on long timescales of multiple decades to millennia. Several speakers discussed the effects of particle events and cosmic-ray variability. These are all areas of exciting fundamental research; however, they have not yet led to conclusive evidence for significant related climate effects. The key problem of attribution of climate variability on the timescales of the Little Ice Age and the Maunder Minimum were directly addressed in several presentations. Several workshop participants remarked that the combination of solar, paleoclimatic, and climate modeling research has the potential to dramatically improve the credibility of these attribution studies.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1988

Modelling the slow climatic attractor

Attempts to model the evolution of the slow-response parts of the climatic system such as the global ice mass are reviewed, and the fundamental laws governing the complete complex multidomain slow system, called the slow climatic attractor, are analyzed. The uses of paleoclimatic records are discussed, and a low-order model for the late Quaternary variations that constitutes a credible global representation of the slow climatic attractor is presented. It is shown that although according to the model the climatic system is centered on an unstable equilibrium, the points of the limit cycle attractor are quite stable and robust. It is also noted that one major deficiency of the model is its inability to portray the geographic spatial variability of climatic mean states. However, at least with regard to atmospheric CO2, estimates of the geographic fields of all significant atmospheric and surface boundary layer climate variables are deducible.

Saltzman, Barry↗
NASA NTRS2013

On the Reprocessing and Reanalysis of Observations for Climate

The long observational record is critical to our understanding of the Earths climate, but most observing systems were not developed with a climate objective in mind. As a result, tremendous efforts have gone into assessing and reprocessing the data records to improve their usefulness in climate studies. The purpose of this paper is to both review recent progress in reprocessing and reanalyzing observations, and to summarize the challenges that must be overcome in order to improve our understanding of climate and variability. Reprocessing improves data quality through more scrutiny and improved retrieval techniques for individual observing systems, while reanalysis merges many disparate observations with models through data assimilation, yet both aim to provide an climatology of Earth processes. Many challenges remain, such as tracking the improvement of processing algorithms and limited spatial coverage. Reanalyses have fostered significant research, yet reliable global trends in many physical fields are not yet attainable, despite significant advances in data assimilation and numerical modeling. Oceanic reanalyses have made significant advances in recent years, but will only be discussed here in terms of progress toward integrated Earth system analyses. Climate data sets are generally adequate for process studies and large-scale climate variability. Communication of the strengths, limitations and uncertainties of reprocessed observations and reanalysis data, not only among the community of developers, but also with the extended research community, including the new generations of researchers and the decision makers is crucial for further advancement of the observational data records. It must be emphasized that careful investigation of the data and processing methods are required to use the observations appropriately.

Uncertainty↗
NASA NTRS1992

Ocean climate data for user community in West and Central Africa: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

The urgent need to improve data delivery systems needed by scientists studying ocean role in climate and climate characteristics has been manifested in recent years because of the unprecedented climatic events experienced in many parts of the world. Indeed, there has been a striking and growing realization by governments and the general public indicating that national economies and human welfare depend on climate and its variability. In West and Central Africa, for instance climatic events, which have resulted in floods and droughts, have caused a lot of concern to both governments and people of the region. In particular, the droughts have been so widespread that greater awareness and concern have become generated for the need to find solutions to the problems created by the consequences of the climatic events. Particularly in the southern border regions of the Sahara Desert as well as in the Sahel region, the drought episodes considerably reduced food production and led to series of socioeconomic problems, not only in the areas affected by the droughts, but also in the other parts of West Africa. The various climatic variabilities which have caused the climatic events are no doubt related to the ocean-atmosphere interactions. Unfortunately, not much has been done on the understanding of these interactions, particularly as they affect developing countries. Indeed, not much has been done to develop programs which will reflect the general concerns and needs for researching into the ocean-atmosphere systems and their implications on man-environmental systems in many developing countries. This is for example, true of West and Central Africa, where compared with the middle latitude countries, much less is known about the characteristics of the ocean-atmosphere systems and their significance on man-environmental systems of the area.

Ojo, S. O.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Geodetic Application of ROCSAT-3/COSMIC: Climate-Induced Time-Variable Gravity

The ROCSAT-3/COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate) mission consists of a constellation of 6 low-earth orbiting satellites. In conducting the atmospheric limb sounding using the GPS radio occultation technique (which is the main objective of the mission), the satellite orbits are precisely determined at any given moment by GPS "high-low" satellite-to-satellite tracking. These precise orbit determination (POD) data contain useful information about the Earth's gravitational field and its time variations, for both geophysical and climate-related research. Our previous simulations showed that the use of these orbit data can yield an order of magnitude improvement over the state-of-the-art global gravity model EGM96 out to degree and order 20 (spatial resolution of 1000 km), depending on the mission design and orbit adjustment scenario. In this paper, the temporal variation signals of low-degree harmonics are the subject matter. These signals can be obtained from POD at the 800 km operational altitude (where the non-gravitational forces is weaker and can be better modeled and removed) during the lifetime of the mission. The time-varying gravity is becoming an important data source for studying climate-related global changes, especially in anticipating the use of the time-variable gravity data from the GRACE mission which was recently launched into orbit. Although not as precise as what GRACE promises to achieve, with much denser spatial and temporal coverages provided by 6 satellites and hence greatly reduced aliasing errors COSMIC represents independent and complementary observations for the new time-variable gravity research. We will present simulation results based on the present mission scenario.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Simulation of Anomalous Regional Climate Events with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

The stretched-grid approach provides an efficient down-scaling and consistent interactions between global and regional scales due to using one variable-resolution model for integrations. It is a workable alternative to the widely used nested-grid approach introduced over a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. A variable-resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) employing a stretched grid, with enhanced resolution over the US as the area of interest, is used for simulating two anomalous regional climate events, the US summer drought of 1988 and flood of 1993. The special mode of integration using a stretched-grid GCM and data assimilation system is developed that allows for imitating the nested-grid framework. The mode is useful for inter-comparison purposes and for underlining the differences between these two approaches. The 1988 and 1993 integrations are performed for the two month period starting from mid May. Regional resolutions used in most of the experiments is 60 km. The major goal and the result of the study is obtaining the efficient down-scaling over the area of interest. The monthly mean prognostic regional fields for the stretched-grid integrations are remarkably close to those of the verifying analyses. Simulated precipitation patterns are successfully verified against gauge precipitation observations. The impact of finer 40 km regional resolution is investigated for the 1993 integration and an example of recovering subregional precipitation is presented. The obtained results show that the global variable-resolution stretched-grid approach is a viable candidate for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Mars Present Climate

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to investigate the nature of intraseasonal and interannual variability of Mars'present climate. We have applied a three-dimensional climate model based on the full hydrostatic primitive equations to determine the spatial, but primarily, the temporal structures of the planet's large-scale circulation as it evolves during a given seasonal advance, and, over multi-annual cycles. The particular climate model applies simplified physical parameterizations and is computationally efficient. It could thus easily be integrated in a perpetual season or advancing season configuration, as well as over many Mars years. We have assessed both high and low-frequency components of the circulation (i.e., motions having periods of Omicron(2-10 days) or greater than Omicron(10 days), respectively). Results from this investigation have explored the basic issue whether Mars' climate system is naturally 'chaotic' associated with nonlinear interactions of the large-scale circulation-regardless of any allowance for year-to-year variations in external forcing mechanisms. Titles of papers presented at scientific conferences and a manuscript to be submitted to the scientific literature are provided. An overview of a areas for further investigation is also presented.

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The scale and persistence of soil moisture anomalies as simulated in a global model

Short term variability of climate is intimately connected with soil moisture variability. Soil moisture provides the storage and subsequent return to the atmosphere, through evaporation and transpiration, of precipitation anomalies over land. Global Circulation Model (GCM) simulations enable consistent identification of correlations and dynamical connections between the hydrologic variables, many of which are incompletely observed. One way to facilitate understanding with these increasingly intricate models is to perform sensitivity studies in which a boundary condition or process is prescribed. In this study we will report on a sensitivity study in which a GCM with a sophisticated land surface representation is used to investigate soil moisture variability in the model climate. The simulations to be used in this study were made at R15 resolution (approximately 4.5 deg latitude x 7.5 deg longitude) with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SST) in the GENESIS model (Thompson and Pollard, 1994), which is coupled to a Land Surface Transfer model (LSX) at 2 deg x 2 deg resolution (Pollard and Thompson, 1994). All the results represented here were taken from the monthly averages of the model results. The LSX model accounts for the physical effects of vegetation with two layers specified at each grid point. Vegetation attributes such as leaf area indices, fractional cover, leaf albedos, etc., were taken from the global dataset in Dorman and Sellers (1989). A six-layer soil model extends from the surface to 4.25 m depth. SST's were prescribed in two ten year experiments using monthly SST values with the daily value being interpolated from the nearest two months. In the first experiment monthly climatological values were used, and in the second, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) observed SST's for the years 1979 through 1988 were used (Gates, 1992). Thus, the former experiment gives a measure of the intrinsic model variability, to be compared with that of the latter experiment, which includes month-to-month variability due to ocean forcing.

Fitzjarrald, D.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Reconstruction of Global Hydroclimate and Dynamical Variables Over the Common Era

Hydroclimate extremes critically affect human and natural systems, but there remain many unanswered questions about their causes and how to interpret their dynamics in the past and in climate change projections. These uncertainties are due, in part, to the lack of long-term, spatially resolved hydroclimate reconstructions and information on the underlying physical drivers for many regions. Here we present the first global reconstructions of hydroclimate and associated climate dynamical variables over the past two thousand years. We use a data assimilation approach tailored to reconstruct hydroclimate that optimally combines 2,978 paleoclimate proxy-data time series with the physical constraints of an atmosphere?ocean climate model. The global reconstructions are annually or seasonally resolved and include two spatiotemporal drought indices, near-surface air temperature, an index of North Atlantic variability, the location of the intertropical convergence zone, and monthly Nino indices. This database, called the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA), will provide a critical new platform for investigating the causes of past climate variability and extremes, while informing interpretations of future hydroclimate projections.

Natural hazards↗
NASA NTRS1999

Regional Climate Simulation with a Variable Resolution Stretch Grid GCM: The 1998 Summer Drought

The variable resolution stretched grid(SG) GCM based on the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) GCM, has been developed and tested in a regional climate simulation mode. The GEOS SG-GCM is used for simulation of the 1988 summer drought over the U.S. Midwest. Within the stretched grid, the region of interest with a uniform about 60 km resolution is a rectangle over the U.S. Outside the region, the grid intervals increase or stretch with a constant stretching factor (as a geometric progression). The results of two-month simulation for the anomalous climate event of the U.S. drought of 1988, are validated against data analysis fields and diagnostics. The event has been chosen by the Project to Inter-compare Regional Climate Simulations(PIRCS). The efficient regional down-scaling as well as the positive impact of fine regional resolution, are obtained. More specifically, the precipitation, 500 hPa, and low-level jet patterns and characteristics are well represented in the simulation. The SG-concept appeared to be a promising candidate for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael↗