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At least 505 records · Page 28

Atomic and molecular gas in interstellar cirrus clouds

The dust, atomic gas, and molecular gas content of a sample of 26 of isolated, degree-sized infrared clouds are compared. Half of the clouds have an infrared excess indicating the presence of H2, and 14 contain compact CO-emitting regions. Complete, high angular resolution H I and CO maps of one cloud, G236+39, resolve the transition between atomic and molecular H, as well as the location of CO formation. Assuming the infrared emission traces the total column density, H2 is inferred to be much more widely distributed than the CO. The CO rotational levels are subthermally excited, and the (2 - 1)/(1 - 0) line ratios suggest a density n(H2) approximately 200/cm(exp 3) where CO was detected. A model of H2 formation on grain surfaces balanced by self-shielded photodissociation fits the variation of infrared brightness with H I column density. Assuming a temperature of 80 K, typical of diffuse H2 (Savage et al. 1977), the H2 chemistry requires an average density n(H + 2H2) approximately 50/cm(exp 3). For G236+39, if the distance is 100 pc, the H I and H2 masses are estimated to be 90 and 70 solar mass, respectively. High-resolution H I and infrared maps of a smaller cloud, G249.0+73.7, reveal no evidence for molecular gas, which is likely due to the low total column density through this cloud. These results suggest the H2 and H I content are comparable for some interstellar cirrus clouds with column densities N(H I) greater than 4 x 10(exp 20)/cm(exp 2), even where CO was not detected.

Reach, William T.↗

Atmospheric structure of the outer planets from thermal emission data

Methods for determining atmospheric structure exploit the opacities provided by the collision induced H2 dipole and the nu4 fundamental of CH4. In addition to earth-based observations, useful measurements of thermal emission from Jupiter and Saturn have been or soon will be made by several spacecraft, with results cross-checked with independent radio occultaion results. For Uranus and Neptune, only a limited set of whole-disk earth-based data exists. All the outer planets show evidence for stratospheric temperature inversions; temperature minima range from about 105 K for Jupiter and 87 K for Saturn, to roughly 55 K for Uranus and Neptune. Remaining problems may be resolved by better quantitative understanding of gas and aerosol absorption and scattering properties, chemical composition, and non-LTE source functions. Ultimately, temperature structure results must be supplemented by quantitative energy equilibrium models which will allow some meaning to be given to the relationships between such characteristics as temperature, clouds, incident solar and planetary radiation, and chemical composition.

Orton, G. S.↗

Laboratory Scale Testing of Ignition Overpressure for Space Vehicle Launch Pad Environments

A scale model of a NASA representative space vehicle is used to develop a refined estimate of the transient pressure loads that are expected to form at the base of the vehicle in the event of a vapor cloud explosion. Flammable vapor clouds are known to form prior to engine startup due to the significant amount of unburned hydrogen that is ejected from the combustion chamber. In the event of a vapor cloud explosion, the vehicle and payload must be able to withstand the resulting overpressure waves. The study comprises an array of pressure sensors located along the base heat shield of the scale model space vehicle as well as the interior wall and throat plug plane of the solid rocket booster. A spark source generator is used to simulate the overpressure wave produced by a vapor cloud explosion while measurements are acquired with and without the effect of a mobile launcher. Time- resolved schlieren images of the simulated vapor cloud explosion reveal the path and impact of both the initial wave and several reflected waves on the various components at the base of the space vehicle. In some instances, the reflected waves superpose to create waves that are higher in amplitude than the initial overpressure wave. A time frequency analysis of the pressure waveforms measured inside the solid rocket booster reveal a ring down tone corresponding to a standing wave that is four times the length of the nozzle.

Tinney, Charles E.↗

Peering into cloud physics using ultra-fine resolution radar and lidar systems

Cloud microphysical processes, such as droplet activation, condensational growth, and collisional growth, play a central role in the evolution of clouds and precipitation. Accurate representations of these processes in numerical models are challenging partially due to incomplete understanding of them at the process-level arising from limited systematic observations. Most surface-based active remote sensors, including today’s operational cloud radars and lidars, have a resolution on the order of tens of meters. This resolution is insufficient to resolve cloud microphysical processes that manifest at finer (meter and sub-meter) scales. A new set of ultra-high-resolution ground-based radar and lidar systems have been developed to address this observational gap. The newly developed 94-GHz cloud radar has a range resolution down to 2.8 m, or a factor of 10 finer than typical radars, using a large bandwidth and quadratic phase coding techniques. The lidar has a range resolution down to 10 cm, or a factor of 100 finer than typical lidars, using a time-gated time-correlated single photon counting technique. Such high-resolution observations were previously only achievable through in situ aircraft measurements. Even then, aircraft measurements do not permit continuous long-term cloud observation as is possible with ground-based remote sensing instruments. In this study, the first-light cloud observations from the new radar and lidar systems are shown to reveal detailed cloud structures that conventional sensors could only perceive in a bulk sense, thus providing new avenues to investigate cloud microphysical processes and their impact on weather and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The NASA ACTIVATE Mission

The NASA Aerosol Cloud Meteorology Interactions over the Western Atlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) conducted 162 joint flights with two aircraft over the northwest Atlantic to study aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs), which represent the largest uncertainty in estimating total anthropogenic radiative forcing. The combination of a high-flying King Air and low-flying HU-25 Falcon, equipped with remote sensing and in situ instruments, characterized trace gases, aerosol particles, clouds, and meteorological variables with data collected nearly simultaneously below, within, and above marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds. Flights spanning warm and cold seasons across 3 years (2020–22) provided a broad range of conditions associated with aerosol particles, cloud properties (including particle size and phase), and meteorology, ideally suited for robust ACI calculations and assessing how well models simulate a wide range of MBL clouds from stratiform to cumulus. ACTIVATE data suggest that drivers of cloud droplet number concentration N d , including aerosol particles and MBL dynamics, vary between winter and summer months with a stronger potential to convert aerosol particles into cloud droplets in winter. Models of varying complexity not only highlight some skills in simulating winter and summer cloud types but also identify challenges that still need to be addressed such as treatment of turbulence, wet scavenging, and mesoscale organization. Remote sensing advances range from new retrieval methods for N d , cloud phase classification, vertically resolved aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei number concentration, and ocean surface wind speed. This work describes these scientific and technological advances along with efforts in outreach and open data science.

aerosol indirect effect↗

Hydrology Copilot: A Cloud-Native Ai System for Hydrological Data Analysis

The emergence of AI-driven Earth observation systems promises to broaden access to petabyte-scale geospatial data beyond domain specialists. However, translating this vision into operational scientific infrastructure requires addressing fundamental challenges in data virtualization, code transparency, and domain-specific reasoning. We present Hydrology Copilot, a cloud-native AI framework for natural-language-driven analysis of Earth observation data. To demonstrate operational capabilities at scale, we implement the system using NASA's North American Land Data Assimilation System version 3 (NLDAS-3), which provides surface meteorological forcing and land-surface model output across North and Central America at 1-km resolution, from which drought diagnostics are derived. The system integrates five core contributions: (1) scalable data virtualization using Kerchunk-based cloud optimized access, achieving a 1.5 to 4.6 times improvement in I/O latency across benchmark queries spanning regional single-day extractions (4.6 times speedup) to continental monthly aggregations (1.5 times speedup); (2) transparent code generation through Microsoft Azure AI Foundry agents that expose executable Python workflows for scientific verification; (3) persistent conversational memory enabling multi-turn analytical discourse across sessions; (4) intelligent query validation that enforces dataset boundaries and resolves ambiguous requests before execution; and (5) a multi-agent architecture coordinating query parsing, code generation, and visualization. We evaluate the system through drought-monitoring workflows, demonstrating reliable code generation, accurate results validated against reference computations and the operational U.S. Drought Monitor, and efficient operation across increasingly complex tasks. By bridging natural-language interfaces with rigorous hydrological analysis, Hydrology Copilot advances beyond proof-of-concept demonstrations to provide a deployable framework for operational Earth science applications.

Data virtualization↗

A Geostationary Instrument Simulator for Aerosol Observing System Simulation Experiments

In the near future, there will be several new instruments measuring atmospheric composition from geostationary orbit over North America, East Asia, and Europe. This constellation of satellites will provide high resolution, time resolved measurements of trace gases and aerosols for monitoring air quality and tracking pollution sources. This paper describes a detailed, fast, and accurate (less than 1.0% uncertainty) method for calculating synthetic top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiances from a global simulation with a mesoscale free running model, the GEOS-5 Nature Run, for remote sensing instruments in geostationary orbit that measure in the ultraviolet-visible spectral range (UV-Vis). Generating these synthetic observations is the first step of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE), a framework for evaluating the impact of a new observation or algorithm. This paper provides details of the model sampling, aerosol and cloud optical properties, surface reflectance modeling, Rayleigh scattering calculations, and a discussion of the uncertainties of the simulated TOA radiance. An application for the simulated TOA radiance observations is demonstrated in the manuscript. Simulated TEMPO (Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution) and GOES-R (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites) observations were used to show how observations from the two instruments could be combined to facilitate aerosol type discrimination. The results demonstrate the viability of a detailed instrument simulator for radiance measurements in the UV-Vis that is capable of accurately simulating high resolution, time-resolved measurements with reasonable computational efficiency.

Castellanos, Patricia↗

The outer shell of SNR 0540-69.3

The supernova remnant 0540-69.3 in the Large Magellanic Cloud has been observed with the Roentgen Satellite (ROSAT) HRI detector. The outer shell was resolved from the bright central region and its X-ray morphology and luminosity determined. One-quarter of the soft X-rays originate in this shell. This result and a simple blast-wave model imply that the energy release in the supernova was about 2 x 10(exp 51) ergs.

Seward, F. D.↗

Remote Sensing of Aerosol and their Radiative Forcing of Climate

Remote sensing of aerosol and aerosol radiative forcing of climate is going through a major transformation. The launch in next few years of new satellites designed specifically for remote sensing of aerosol is expected to further revolutionized aerosol measurements: until five years ago satellites were not designed for remote sensing of aerosol. Aerosol optical thickness was derived as a by product, only over the oceans using one AVHRR channel with errors of approx. 50%. However it already revealed a very important first global picture of the distribution and sources of aerosol. In the last 5 years we saw the introduction of polarization and multi-view observations (POLDER and ATSR) for satellite remote sensing of aerosol over land and ocean. Better products are derived from AVHRR using its two channels. The new TOMS aerosol index shows the location and transport of aerosol over land and ocean. Now we anticipate the launch of EOS-Terra with MODIS, MISR and CERES on board for multi-view, multi-spectral remote sensing of aerosol and its radiative forcing. This will allow application of new techniques, e.g. using a wide spectral range (0.55-2.2 microns) to derive precise optical thickness, particle size and mass loading. Aerosol is transparent in the 2.2 microns channel, therefore this channel can be used to detect surface features that in turn are used to derive the aerosol optical thickness in the visible part of the spectrum. New techniques are developed to derive the aerosol single scattering albedo, a measure of absorption of sunlight, and techniques to derive directly the aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere. In the last 5 years a global network of sun/sky radiometers was formed, designed to communicate in real time the spectral optical thickness from 50-80 locations every day, every 15 minutes. The sky angular and spectral information is also measured and used to retrieve the aerosol size distribution, refractive index, single scattering albedo and the spectral flux reaching the surface. Effort to introduce remote sensing from lidars will literally additional dimension to aerosol remote sensing. The vertical dimension is a critical link between the global satellite observations and modeling of aerosol transport. Lidars are also critical to study aerosol impact on cloud microphysics and reflectance. Both lidar ground networks and satellite systems are in development. This new capability is expected to put remote sensing in the forefront of aerosol and climate studies. Together with field experiments, chemical analysis and chemical transport models we anticipate, in the next decade, to be able to resolve some of the outstanding questions regarding the role of aerosol in climate, in atmospheric chemistry and its influence on human health and life on this planet.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗

Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project: The Critical Components to Simulate Cirrus Initiation Explicitly - Phase 1

The Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project, a project of the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Studies) Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems, involves the systematic comparison of current models of ice crystal nucleation and growth for specified, typical, cirrus cloud environments. In Phase I of the project reported here, simulated cirrus cloud microphysical properties are compared for situations of "warm" (40 C) and "cold" (-60 C) cirrus, both subject to updrafts of 4, 20 and 100 centimeters per second. Five models participated. The various models employ explicit microphysical schemes wherein the size distribution of each class of particles (aerosols and ice crystals) is resolved into bins or treated separately. Simulations are made including both the homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation mechanisms. A single initial aerosol population of sulfuric acid particles is prescribed for all simulations. To isolate the treatment of the homogeneous freezing (of haze droplets) nucleation process, the heterogeneous nucleation mechanism is disabled for a second parallel set of simulations. Qualitative agreement is found for the homogeneous-nucleation- only simulations, e.g., the number density of nucleated ice crystals increases with the strength of the prescribed updraft. However, significant quantitative differences are found. Detailed analysis reveals that the homogeneous nucleation rate, haze particle solution concentration, and water vapor uptake rate by ice crystal growth (particularly as controlled by the deposition coefficient) are critical components that lead to differences in predicted microphysics. Systematic bias exists between results based on a modified classical theory approach and models using an effective freezing temperature approach to the treatment of nucleation. Each approach is constrained by critical freezing data from laboratory studies, but each includes assumptions that can only be justified by further laboratory research. Consequently, it is not yet clear if the two approaches can be made consistent. Large haze particles may deviate considerably from equilibrium size in moderate to strong updrafts (20-100 centimeters per second) at -60 C when the commonly invoked equilibrium assumption is lifted. The resulting difference in particle-size- dependent solution concentration of haze particles may significantly affect the ice particle formation rate during the initial nucleation interval. The uptake rate for water vapor excess by ice crystals is another key component regulating the total number of nucleated ice crystals. This rate, the product of particle number concentration and ice crystal diffusional growth rate, which is particularly sensitive to the deposition coefficient when ice particles are small, modulates the peak particle formation rate achieved in an air parcel and the duration of the active nucleation time period. The effects of heterogeneous nucleation are most pronounced in weak updraft situations. Vapor competition by the heterogeneously nucleated ice crystals may limit the achieved ice supersaturation and thus suppresses the contribution of homogeneous nucleation. Correspondingly, ice crystal number density is markedly reduced. Definitive laboratory and atmospheric benchmark data are needed for the heterogeneous nucleation process. Inter-model differences are correspondingly greater than in the case of the homogeneous nucleation process acting alone.

Lin, Ruei-Fong↗

The Roper Resonance and Kin

The properties of the Roper resonance N(1440) 1/ 2 + are reviewed. Quark models have long struggled to reproduce its mass relative to its negative parity partner N(1535) 1/ 2 − . This discrepancy motivated interpretations of the Roper as a dynamically generated meson–baryon state. Including its isospin partners ∆(1600) 3/ 2 + and ∆(1700) 3/ 2 − further accentuates the tension between quark-model predictions and experiment. Recent develop ments based on AdS/QCD and functional methods achieve much improved agreement, identifying the Roper as an ordinary three-quark excitation. Electroproduction experiments at Jefferson Lab have now resolved this long-standing question, revealing the Roper as a qqq core dressed by a substantial meson cloud. The Roper resonance belongs to a family of four N ∗ states with J P = 1/ 2 + ; the highest-mass member, N(2100) 1/ 2 + , likely represents a Roper-like excitation in the fourth shell.

Burkert, Volker [Thomas Jefferson National Acceler↗

The interstellar medium in the direction of the Crab Nebula - Reconciling soft X-ray and radio observations

The total soft X-ray photoabsorption cross section of the interstellar medium (ISM) in the direction of the Crab Nebula is computed on the basis of a two-phase model of the ISM. This cross section is used to reanalyze Copernicus data on the X-ray spectrum of the Crab between 0.7 and 1.5 keV. The total hydrogen column density along the line of sight to that nebula is found to be approximately 2.6 by 10 to the 21st power H atoms/sq cm. This result is evaluated in light of the two-phase model of the ISM, and the predictions based on the X-ray data are compared with results of radio and UV observations. A discrepancy between the radio and X-ray measurements of the hydrogen column density is resolved by noting that 21-cm absorption measurements sample only the neutral hydrogen in clouds while X-ray measurements are sensitive to all forms of hydrogen in both cloud and intercloud regions. It is suggested that roughly 50% of the hydrogen in the direction of the Crab Nebula is in clouds and that 85% of this hydrogen is neutral and atomic.

Ride, S. K.↗

The Physical Character of Small-Scale Interstellar Structures

The primary objective of this program was to obtain FUSE observations of the multiple interstellar absorption lines of H2 toward the members of 3 resolvable binary/multiple star systems to explore the physical conditions in known interstellar small-scale structures. Each of the selected systems was meant to address a different aspect of the models for the origin of these structures: 1) The stars HD 32039/40 were meant to probe a temporally varying component which probed a cloud with an inferred size of tens to a few hundreds of AU. The goal was to see if there was any significant H2 associated with this component; 2) The star HD 36408B and its companion HD 36408A (observed as part of FUSE GTO program P119) show significant spatial and temporal (proper motion induced) Na I column variations in a strong, relatively isolated component, as well as a relatively simple component structure. The key goal here was to identify any differences in H2 or C I excitation between the sightlines, and to measure the physical conditions (primarily density and temperature) in the temporally varying component; 3) The stars HD 206267C and HD 206267D are highly reddened sightlines which showed significant variations in K I and molecular absorption lines in multiple velocity components. Coupled with FUSE GTO observations of HD 206267A (program P116), the goal was to study the variations in H2 along sightlines which are significantly more distant, with larger separations, and with greater extinctions than the other selected binary systems.

Lauroesch, James T.↗

The Far Infrared Lines of OH as Molecular Cloud Diagnostics

Future IR missions should give some priority to high resolution spectroscopic observations of the set of far-IR transitions of OH. There are 15 far-IR lines arising between the lowest eight rotational levels of OH, and ISO detected nine of them. Furthermore, ISO found the OH lines, sometimes in emission and sometimes in absorption, in a wide variety of galactic and extragalactic objects ranging from AGB stars to molecular clouds to active galactic nuclei and ultra-luminous IR galaxies. The ISO/LWS Fabry-Perot resolved the 119 m doublet line in a few of the strong sources. This set of OH lines provides a uniquely important diagnostic for many reasons: the lines span a wide wavelength range (28.9 m to 163.2 m); the transitions have fast radiative rates; the abundance of the species is relatively high; the IR continuum plays an important role as a pump; the contribution from shocks is relatively minor; and, not least, the powerful centimeter-wave radiation from OH allows comparison with radio and VLBI datasets. The problem is that the large number of sensitive free parameters, and the large optical depths of the strongest lines, make modeling the full set a difficult job. The SWAS montecarlo radiative transfer code has been used to analyze the ISO/LWS spectra of a number of objects with good success, including in both the lines and the FIR continuum; the DUSTY radiative transfer code was used to insure a self-consistent continuum. Other far IR lines including those from H2O, CO, and [OI] are also in the code. The OH lines all show features which future FIR spectrometers should be able to resolve, and which will enable further refinements in the details of each cloud's structure. Some examples are given, including the case of S140, for which independent SWAS data found evidence for bulk flows.

Smith, Howard A.↗

The Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project

The cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project involves the systematic comparison of current models of ice crystal nucleation and growth for specified, typical, cirrus cloud environments. In Phase 1 of the project reported here, simulated cirrus cloud microphysical properties are compared for situations of "warm" (-40 C) and "cold" (-60 C) cirrus subject to updrafts of 4, 20 and 100 centimeters per second, respectively. Five models are participating in the project. These models employ explicit microphysical schemes wherein the size distribution of each class of particles (aerosols and ice crystals) is resolved into bins. Simulations are made including both homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation mechanisms. A single initial aerosol population of sulfuric acid particles is prescribed for all simulations. To isolate the treatment of the homogeneous freezing (of haze drops) nucleation process, the heterogeneous nucleation mechanism is disabled for a second parallel set of simulations. Qualitative agreement is found amongst the models for the homogeneous-nucleation-only simulations, e.g., the number density of nucleated ice crystals increases with the strength of the prescribed updraft. However, non-negligible quantitative differences are found. Systematic bias exists between results of a model based on a modified classical theory approach and models using an effective freezing temperature approach to the treatment of nucleation. Each approach is constrained by critical freezing data from laboratory studies. This information is necessary, but not sufficient, to construct consistent formulae for the two approaches. Large haze particles may deviate considerably from equilibrium size in moderate to strong updrafts (20-100 centimeters per second) at -60 C when the commonly invoked equilibrium assumption is lifted. The resulting difference in particle-size-dependent solution concentration of haze particles may significantly affect the ice nucleation rate during the initial nucleation interval. The uptake rate for water vapor excess by ice crystals is another key component regulating the total number of nucleated ice crystals. This rate, the product of ice number concentration and ice crystal diffusional growth rate, partially controls the peak nucleation rate achieved in an air parcel and the duration of the active nucleation time period.

Lin, Ruei-Fong↗

Improving Process Level Understanding of Boundary Layer Winds over the Northeast U.S. Shelf: The Third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3)

The third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3), a U.S. Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sponsored investigation, sought to improve understanding of the physical phenomena in the atmosphere and ocean that dictate the structure and variability of wind and thermodynamic fields within the marine atmospheric boundary layer. WFIP3 focused on mesoscale and submesoscale flows -- including sea breezes, low-level jets, low-level clouds, and coastal storms -- and the ability of advanced numerical model parameterizations to represent them within fully coupled oceanic and atmospheric modeling systems and foundational weather forecast models. WFIP3 conducted a comprehensive 18-month observational study over the Northeast U.S. outer continental shelf, a high-use coastal zone, using a 3D multiscale sensor array to highly resolve the temporal, vertical, and horizontal structure of the coupled atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers. Multiple land-based study sites adjacent to the coastal ocean observed surface meteorology and vertical profiles of atmospheric properties via passive infrared and microwave radiometers, active lidars and radars, and radiosondes. At sea, an array of surface flux buoys and two vertical profiling lidar buoys observed both atmospheric and oceanic properties, augmented by land-based oceanographic radar systems and routine ship-based surveys. Intensive observations of the marine atmospheric boundary layer over the ocean was done from an air-sea interaction flux tower and extended deployments of a large autonomous barge platform. Numerous critical forecasting phenomena were observed that are being evaluated within regional coupled and uncoupled modeling systems, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's foundational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh forecast model.

Kirincich, Anthony↗

Airborne lidar measurements of atmospheric CO 2 column concentrations to cloud tops made during the 2017 ASCENDS/ABoVE campaign

We measured the column-averaged atmospheric CO 2 mixing ratio (XCO 2 ) to a variety of cloud tops with an airborne pulsed multi-wavelength integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) lidar during NASA's 2017 ASCENDS/ABoVE airborne campaign. Measurements of height-resolved atmospheric backscatter profiles allow this lidar to retrieve XCO 2 to cloud tops, as well as to the ground, with accurate knowledge of the photon path length. We validated these measurements with those from an onboard in situ CO 2 sensor during spiral-down maneuvers. These lidar measurements were 2–3 times better than those from previous airborne campaigns due to our using a wavelength step-locked laser transmitter and a high-efficiency detector for this campaign. Precisions of 0.6 parts per million (ppm) were achieved for 10 s average measurements to mid-level clouds and 0.9 ppm to low-level clouds at the top of the planetary boundary layer. This study demonstrates the lidar's capability to fill in XCO 2 measurement gaps in cloudy regions and to help resolve the vertical and horizontal distributions of atmospheric CO 2 . Future airborne campaigns and spaceborne missions with this capability can be used to improve atmospheric transport modeling, flux estimation and carbon data assimilation.

Jianping Mao↗

An Examination of the Impact of Grid Spacing on WRF Simulations of Wintertime Precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic United States

A large set of deterministic and ensemble forecasts was produced to identify the optimal spacing for forecasting U.S. East Coast snowstorms. WRF forecasts were produced on cloud-allowing (~1-km grid spacing) and convection-allowing (3–4 km) grids, and compared against forecasts with parameterized convection (>~10 km). Performance diagrams were used to evaluate 19 deterministic forecasts from the winter of 2013–14. Ensemble forecasts of five disruptive snowstorms spanning the years 2015–18 were evaluated using various methods to evaluate probabilistic forecasts. While deterministic forecasts using cloud-allowing grids were not better than convection-allowing forecasts, both had lower bias and higher success ratios than forecasts with parameterized convection. All forecasts were underdispersive. Nevertheless, forecasts on the higher-resolution grids were more reliable than those with parameterized convection. Forecasts on the cloud-allowing grid were best able to discriminate areas that received heavy snow and those that did not, while the forecasts with parameterized convection were least able to do so. It is recommended to use convection-resolving and (if computationally possible) to use cloud-allowing forecast grids when predicting East Coast winter storms.

Snowstorms↗