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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Data Driven Analysis for Modernization Program Management

NNSA is responsible for managing national nuclear security missions: ensuring a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear deterrent; supplying nuclear fuel to the Navy; and supporting the nation’s nuclear nonproliferation efforts. However, over half of NNSA’s facilities are more than 40 years old, and roughly one-third date back to the Manhattan Project. To execute its critical nuclear security missions, NNSA is making large investments to modernize its nuclear production capabilities. This ramp up represents NNSA’s largest modernization effort since the Cold War. Given the scale of these efforts, NNSA’s Office of Secondary Stage Production Modernization has implemented data driven techniques to prioritize investments and inform strategic decision making. NNSA, with support from its site managing contractors, has developed and implemented an integrated schedule and risk management system to address the issues and limitations with the traditional approach. The multi-year integrated schedules are key to identifying program linkages and managing large portfolios comprised of many different projects and efforts. In conjunction with the integrated schedule, a new program risk management system has also been developed and implemented, which manages program risks and opportunities, along with specific mitigation strategies to reduce or eliminate the risks per timelines that are tracked in the integrated schedule. This paper is supplemented with a follow-on presentation on effective management of program material and throughput modeling.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Modeling of a High Capacity Cryogenic System for Control Optimization

The Cryogenic Moderator System (CMS) is responsible for maintaining a steady flow of cold neutrons for numerous physics experiments at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) in Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Sudden losses in beam power, known as beam trips, cause a major disturbance to the CMS due to large step changes in cooling demands. Ongoing efforts on upgrading the neutron beam power from 1.4 to 2.0MW are expected to generate larger transients that can further strain the CMS subsystems if they are not properly controlled. To manage such disturbances, four flow valves and one electric heater are adjusted by five decentralized proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controllers. However, the original PID gains were calibrated empirically based only on tracking performance and not based on disturbance rejection. To address this issue without compromising current CMS operations, a control-oriented model was developed to recalibrate the PID controllers offline. The zero-dimensional (0-D) model was based on simple physics-based principles and data-driven system identification techniques. The CMS was broken into several subsystems for analysis, each of which corresponds to a parametric model tied to the thermodynamic states of the working fluid. The model parameters were identified using the nonlinear least squares method where the residuals were calculated from available sensor data. Simulation results show that the proposed model can capture the dynamics of the CMS at steady state and during beam trips.

Maldonado Puente, Bryan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Correlating processing variables to material properties in recycled polypropylene: A data‐driven approach

Abstract Polypropylene (PP) is one of the most widely used plastics, yet its recycling remains limited, with less than 1% of solid waste PP being reprocessed. Mechanical recycling through extrusion is the most practical method, but inconsistent reprocessing conditions introduce variability in material properties. While temperature, screw speed, and residence time influence the thermomechanical stress applied during reprocessing, there are no standardized guidelines for optimizing these parameters. This study examines how these factors shape the properties of recycled PP, using conditions designed to mimic post‐industrial recycled (PIR) scrap. Residence time was measured using colorimetric tracking and correlated with molecular weight, viscosity, and mechanical properties over multiple extrusion cycles. Data‐driven modeling, including response surface methodology, support vector machines, and artificial neural networks, identified processing temperature as the dominant factor in material degradation, followed by residence time. Mechanical properties remained stable, while viscosity decreased predictably with increasing residence time. By linking reprocessing conditions to property evolution, this study provides a method to optimize processing parameters and reduce variability in recycled PP. These findings help manufacturers improve process control, making recycled PP more predictable for reuse in manufacturing. Highlights Study of PIR‐quality PP without additives or compatibilizers. Residence time analysis shows processing temperature drives PP property changes. Mark‐Houwink enables quick molecular weight checks for quality control. Models predict mechanical and rheological shifts in reprocessing. Optimized processing parameters minimize property degradation in recycling.

Estela‐García, John E. [Polymer Engineering Center↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven methods for diffusivity prediction in nuclear fuels

The growth rate of structural defects in nuclear fuels under irradiation is intrinsically related to the diffusion rates of the defects in the fuel lattice. The generation and growth of atomistic structural defects can significantly alter the performance characteristics of the fuel. This alteration of functionality must be accurately captured to qualify a nuclear fuel for use in reactors. Predicting the diffusion coefficients of defects and how they impact macroscale properties such as swelling, gas release, and creep is therefore of significant importance in both the design of new nuclear fuels and the assessment of current fuel types. In this article, we apply data-driven methods focusing on machine learning (ML) to determine various diffusion properties of two nuclear fuels—uranium oxide and uranium nitride. We show that using ML can increase, often significantly, the accuracy of predicting diffusivity in nuclear fuels in comparison to current analytical models. We also illustrate how ML can be used to quickly develop fuel models with parameter dependencies that are more complex and robust than what is currently available in the literature. In conclusion, these results suggest there is potential for ML to accelerate the design, qualification, and implementation of nuclear fuels.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven modeling to enhance municipal water demand estimates in response to dynamic climate conditions

Altered precipitation and temperature patterns from a changing climate will affect supply, demand, and overall municipal water system operations throughout the arid western U.S. While supply forecasts leverage hydrological models to connect climate influences with surface water availability, demand forecasts typically estimate water use independent of climate and other externalities. Stemming from an increased focus on seasonal water demand management, we use the Salt Lake City, Utah municipal water system as a test bed to assess model accuracy versus complexity trade-offs between simple climate-independent econometric-based models and complex climate-sensitive data-driven models to average to extreme wet and dry climate conditions—representative of a new climate normal. Here, the climate-independent model displayed low performance during extreme dry conditions with predictions exceeding 90% and 40% of the observed monthly and seasonal volumetric demands, respectively, which we attribute to insufficient model complexity. The climate-sensitive models displayed greater accuracy in all conditions, with an ordinary least squares model demonstrating a measurable reduction in prediction bias (3.4% vs. -27.3%) and RMSE (74.0 lpcd vs. 294 lpcd) compared to the climate-independent model. The climate-sensitive workflow increased model accuracy and characterized climate-demand interactions, demonstrating a novel tool to enhance water system management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven modeling of power generation for a coal power plant under cycling

Increased penetration of renewables for power generation has negatively impacted the dynamics of conventional fossil fuel-based power plants. The power plants operating on the base load are forced to cycle, to adjust to the fluctuating power demands. This results in an inefficient operation of the coal power plants, which leads up to higher operating losses. To overcome such operational challenge associated with cycling and to develop an optimal process control, this work analyzes a set of models for predicting power generation. Moreover, the power generation is intrinsically affected by the state of the power plant components, and therefore our model development also incorporates additional power plant process variables while forecasting the power generation. We present and compare multiple state-of-the-art forecasting data-driven methods for power generation to determine the most adequate and accurate model. We also develop an interpretable attention-based transformer model to explain the importance of process variables during training and forecasting. The trained deep neural network (DNN) LSTM model has good accuracy in predicting gross power generation under various prediction horizons with/without cycling events and outperforms the other models for long-term forecasting. The DNN memory-based models show significant superiority over other state-of-the-art machine learning models for short, medium and long range predictions. The transformer-based model with attention enhances the selection of historical data for multi-horizon forecasting, and also allows to interpret the significance of internal power plant components on the power generation. This newly gained insights can be used by operation engineers to anticipate and monitor the health of power plant equipment during high cycling periods.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

SDSS-IV MaStar: Data-driven Parameter Derivation for the MaStar Stellar Library

The Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) Stellar Library (MaStar) is a large collection of high-quality empirical stellar spectra designed to cover all spectral types and ideal for use in the stellar population analysis of galaxies observed in the MaNGA survey. The library contains 59,266 spectra of 24,130 unique stars with spectral resolution R ~ 1800 and covering a wavelength range of 3622–10,354 Å. In this work, we derive five physical parameters for each spectrum in the library: effective temperature (T eff ), surface gravity ($\mathrm{log} g$), metallicity ([Fe/H]), microturbulent velocity ($\mathrm{log}({v}_{\mathrm{micro}})$), and alpha-element abundance ([α/Fe]). These parameters are derived with a flexible data-driven algorithm that uses a neural network model. We train a neural network using the subset of 1675 MaStar targets that have also been observed in the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE), adopting the independently-derived APOGEE Stellar Parameter and Chemical Abundance Pipeline parameters for this reference set. For the regions of parameter space not well represented by the APOGEE training set (7000 ≤ T ≤ 30,000 K), we supplement with theoretical model spectra. We present our derived parameters along with an analysis of the uncertainties and comparisons to other analyses from the literature.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accurate data-driven surrogates of dynamical systems for forward propagation of uncertainty

Stochastic collocation (SC) is a well-known non-intrusive method of constructing surrogate models for uncertainty quantification. In dynamical systems, SC is especially suited for full-field uncertainty propagation that characterizes the distributions of the high-dimensional solution fields of a model with stochastic input parameters. However, due to the highly nonlinear nature of the parameter-to-solution map in even the simplest dynamical systems, the constructed SC surrogates are often inaccurate. Here, this work presents an alternative approach, where we apply the SC approximation over the dynamics of the model, rather than the solution. By combining the data-driven sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics framework with SC, we construct dynamics surrogates and integrate them through time to construct the surrogate solutions. We demonstrate that the SC-over-dynamics framework leads to smaller errors, both in terms of the approximated system trajectories as well as the model state distributions, when compared against full-field SC applied to the solutions directly. We present numerical evidence of this improvement using three test problems: a chaotic ordinary differential equation, and two partial differential equations from solid mechanics.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Root Cause Analysis of Degradation in Protonic Ceramic Electrochemical Cell with Interfacial Electrical Sensors Using Data‐Driven Machine Learning

Abstract Protonic ceramic electrochemical cells (PCECs) offer promising paths for energy storage and conversion. Despite considerable achievements made, PCECs still face challenges such as physiochemical compatibility between componenets and suboptimal solid–solid contact at the interfaces between the electrolytes and electrodes. In this study, a novel approach is proposed that combines in situ electrochemical characterization of interfacial electrical sensor embedded PCECs and machine learning to quantify the contributions of different cell components to total degradation, as well as to predict the remaining useful life. The experimental results suggest that the overpotential induced by the oxygen electrode is 48% less than that of oxygen electrode/electrolyte interfacial contact for up to 1171 h. The data‐driven machine learning simulation predicts the RUL of up to 2132 h. The root cause of degradation is overpotential increase induced by oxygen electrode, which accounts for 82.9% of total cell degradation. The success of the failure diagnostic model is demonstrated by its consistency with degradation modes that do not manifest in electrolysis fade during early real operations. This synergistic approach provides valuable insights into practical failure diagnosis of PCECs and has the potential to revolutionize their development by enabling improved performance prediction and material selection for enhanced durability and efficiency.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meeting Global Health Needs via Infectious Disease Forecasting: Development of a Reliable Data-Driven Framework

Infectious diseases (IDs) have a significant detrimental impact on global health. Timely and accurate ID forecasting can result in more informed implementation of control measures and prevention policies. To meet the operational decision-making needs of real-world circumstances, we aimed to build a standardized, reliable, and trustworthy ID forecasting pipeline and visualization dashboard that is generalizable across a wide range of modeling techniques, IDs, and global locations. We forecasted 6 diverse, zoonotic diseases (brucellosis, campylobacteriosis, Middle East respiratory syndrome, Q fever, tick-borne encephalitis, and tularemia) across 4 continents and 8 countries. We included a wide range of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models (n=9) and trained them on a multitude of features (average n=2326) within the One Health landscape, including demography, landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. The pipeline and dashboard were created in consideration of crucial operational metrics—prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, spatiotemporal generalizability, uncertainty quantification, and interpretability—which are essential to strategic data-driven decisions. While no single best model was suitable for all disease, region, and country combinations, our ensemble technique selects the best-performing model for each given scenario to achieve the closest prediction. For new or emerging diseases in a region, the ensemble model can predict how the disease may behave in the new region using a pretrained model from a similar region with a history of that disease. The data visualization dashboard provides a clean interface of important analytical metrics, such as ID temporal patterns, forecasts, prediction uncertainties, and model feature importance across all geographic locations and disease combinations. As the need for real-time, operational ID forecasting capabilities increases, this standardized and automated platform for data collection, analysis, and reporting is a major step forward in enabling evidence-based public health decisions and policies for the prevention and mitigation of future ID outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

MIRAGE: A Framework for Data-Driven Collaborative High-Resolution Simulation

Information about how human populations shift in response to various stimuli is limited because no single model is capable of addressing these stimuli simultaneously, and integration of the best existing models has been challenging because of the vast disparity among constituent model purposes, architectures, scales, and execution environments. To demonstrate a potential model coupling for approaching this problem, three major model components are integrated into a fully coupled system that executes a worldwide infection-infected routine where a human population requires a food source for sustenance and an infected population can spread an infection when it is in contact with the remaining healthy population. To enable high-resolution data-driven model federation and an ability to capture dynamics and behaviors of billions of humans, a high-performance computing agent-based framework has been created and is demonstrated in this chapter.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Discovery of Linear Molecular Probes with Optimal Selective Affinity for PFAS in Water

Approaches to tackle the wide and growing variety of highly persistent per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are of pressing global need because of their detrimental human health effects, such as cancer, birth defects, and hormone imbalance. Sensitive, selective, and easy-to-use real-time sensors to monitor and detect PFAS and sorbents to extract them are critical to meeting government-mandated environmental concentrations. In this work, we combine all-atom molecular dynamics simulations, enhanced sampling, deep representational learning, and Bayesian optimization to perform high-throughput virtual screening for highly sensitive and selective molecular probes. Our molecular design space consists of 3850 linear hydrocarbon chains with varying degrees of halogenation with and without amine- and phosphine-based headgroups. By employing a data-driven search process, we efficiently explore the molecular design space to optimize the sensitivity to perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) as a prototypical PFAS analyte and selectivity relative to a sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) interferent. We calculate 504 Gibbs free energies of probe-analyte and probe-interferent interactions and identify probes with PFOS association free energies of up to (-ΔG PFOS ) = 9.8 ± 0.2 kJ/mol and selectivities relative to SDS of (-ΔΔG PFOS–SDS ) = 3.1 ± 1.5 kJ/mol. A C 11 Br 23 P(CH 3 ) 2 probe containing 11 backbone brominated carbons and a tertiary phosphine headgroup possesses the most sensitive binding constant to PFOS within the defined search space of K b PFOS = 177.4 ± 12.7, and a semibrominated probe C 5 H 11 C 7 Br 14 N(CH 3 ) 2 containing 12 backbone carbons and a tertiary amine headgroup possesses the highest selectivity relative to SDS of K b PFOS /K b SDS = 4.6 ± 1.7. A retrospective analysis of our data to extract interpretable design rules reveals that the sensitivity of linear hydrogenated probes increases by approximately 1 kJ/mol per C–C bond. The addition or removal of halogen atoms and amine or phosphine headgroups produces nonmonotonic changes in both sensitivity and selectivity with changes to the sensitivity of up to 2.5 kJ/mol. Finally, this work places empirical limitations on the performance of a wide range of linear probes for PFOS detection and offers a generic strategy for high-throughput computational screening to promote selective and sensitive binding.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven simultaneous process optimization and adsorbent selection for vacuum pressure swing adsorption

Technologies for post-combustion carbon capture are essential for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere. However, they are still associated with high costs and energy consumption. Intensified processes for carbon capture have the potential to overcome these challenges due to their higher efficiency, lower capital cost, and increased operational flexibility. Here, this work investigates simultaneous optimization of process conditions and adsorbent selection for a modular Vacuum Pressure-Swing Adsorption system designed for CO 2 capture. Both surrogate-based Nonlinear Programming and Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming approaches are applied and compared in terms of computational efficiency and solution accuracy. Moreover, process performance results are examined by applying several data analytics techniques to gain insights into the material-process correlations. Data-driven classifiers and neural networks can accurately predict whether a material is likely to satisfy purity, recovery, and energy constraints when operated at optimal process conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

DATA-DRIVEN ALGORITHMS FOR DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM OPERATION AND CONTROL

Transactive energy systems are an alternative solution for the problems that distribution system operators face due to an increase in the use of distributed energy resources(DERs) and resulting much required scalability in managing active distribution system. To meet the reliability, sustainability and security requirement, ecient management and control of DERs including distributed generators, energy storage systems, and demand response is necessary. DERs can provide services such as reactive power compensation, voltage control, energy balancing, peak load reduction. These edge resources can also be used for system restoration after the extreme events within regulatory bound and enabling resiliency of the electric grid. While there are numbers of related work focused on solving these problems, availability of additional data resources has not been utilized to its potential to enable the reliable, sustainable and resilient electric grid. In order to address these challenges, data-driven algorithms have been proposed in this dissertation, including a) Volt/Var control, b) activity aware demand response and c) estimation of behind the meter distributed energy resources. Results indicate satisfactory performance of the developed algorithms.

ZHANG, YUE↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-throughput and data-driven search for stable optoelectronic AMSe 3 materials

The rapid advancement in emerging optoelectronic technologies demands highly efficient, affordable, and ecofriendly materials. In this context, ternary chalcogenides, especially ternary selenides, show early promise as a material class due to their stability and remarkable electronic, optical, and transport properties. In this work, we integrate first-principles-based high-throughput computations with machine learning (ML) techniques to predict the thermodynamic stability and optoelectronic properties of 920 valency-satisfied selenide compounds. Through investigating polymorphism, our study reveals the edge-sharing orthorhombic Pnma phase (NH 4 CdCl 3 -type) as the most stable structure for most ternary selenides. High-fidelity supervised ML models are trained and tested to accelerate stability and band gap predictions. These data-driven models pin down the most influential features that dominantly control key material characteristics. The multistep high-throughput computations identify the ternary selenides with optimal direct band gaps, light carrier masses, and strong optical absorption edges. The extensive materials screening considering phase stability, toxicity, and defect tolerance, finally identifies the seven most suitable candidates for photovoltaic applications. Two of these final compounds, SrZrSe 3 and SrHfSe 3 , have already been synthesized in a single-phase form, with the latter showing an optically suitable band gap, aligning well with our findings. The non-adiabatic molecular dynamics reveal sufficiently long photoexcited charge carrier lifetimes (on the order of nanoseconds) in some of these selected selenide materials, indicating their exciting characteristics. Overall, our study suggests a robust in silico framework that can be extended to screen large datasets of various material classes for identifying promising photoactive candidates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data-Driven Modeling of High-Resolution Residential Load Profiles Using Low-Resolution Smart Meter Measurements

Accurate and high-resolution residential load profiles are essential for power system modeling, demand response planning, and effective grid operation. As the energy sector moves towards a more actively managed distribution system, the ability to understand residential energy consumption at a minute-by-minute scale becomes increasingly critical. High-resolution load profiles provide key insights into demand patterns and user behavior, enabling grid operators to design more effective energy solutions; however, residential load measurements in the field are typically recorded at low resolutions, such as 15-60 minutes, which makes it hard to study the characteristics of different residential customers. This paper addresses these challenges by introducing a data-driven approach to generate realistic, high-resolution residential load profiles based on lowre-solution measurements and weather information. The proposed method retains the key features of the actual residential load measurements while offering appliance-level energy consumption details for each residential building. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed load profile generator, proving its capability to support utilities in optimizing residential energy management and ensuring a more reliable and resilient grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2016

TH-EF-BRA-03: Assessment of Data-Driven Respiratory Motion-Compensation Methods for 4D-CBCT Image Registration and Reconstruction Using Clinical Datasets

Purpose: To evaluate the performance of a 4D-CBCT registration and reconstruction method that corrects for respiratory motion and enhances image quality under clinically relevant conditions. Methods: Building on previous work, which tested feasibility of a motion-compensation workflow using image datasets superior to clinical acquisitions, this study assesses workflow performance under clinical conditions in terms of image quality improvement. Evaluated workflows utilized a combination of groupwise deformable image registration (DIR) and image reconstruction. Four-dimensional cone beam CT (4D-CBCT) FDK reconstructions were registered to either mean or respiratory phase reference frame images to model respiratory motion. The resulting 4D transformation was used to deform projection data during the FDK backprojection operation to create a motion-compensated reconstruction. To simulate clinically realistic conditions, superior quality projection datasets were sampled using a phase-binned striding method. Tissue interface sharpness (TIS) was defined as the slope of a sigmoid curve fit to the lung-diaphragm boundary or to the carina tissue-airway boundary when no diaphragm was discernable. Image quality improvement was assessed in 19 clinical cases by evaluating mitigation of view-aliasing artifacts, tissue interface sharpness recovery, and noise reduction. Results: For clinical datasets, evaluated average TIS recovery relative to base 4D-CBCT reconstructions was observed to be 87% using fixed-frame registration alone; 87% using fixed-frame with motion-compensated reconstruction; 92% using mean-frame registration alone; and 90% using mean-frame with motion-compensated reconstruction. Soft tissue noise was reduced on average by 43% and 44% for the fixed-frame registration and registration with motion-compensation methods, respectively, and by 40% and 42% for the corresponding mean-frame methods. Considerable reductions in view aliasing artifacts were observed for each method. Conclusion: Data-driven groupwise registration and motion-compensated reconstruction have the potential to improve the quality of 4D-CBCT images acquired under clinical conditions. For clinical image datasets, the addition of motion compensation after groupwise registration visibly reduced artifact impact. This work was supported by the National Cancer Institute of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number R01CA166119. Hugo and Weiss hold a research agreement with Philips Healthcare and license agreement with Varian Medical Systems. Weiss receives royalties from UpToDate. Christensen receives funds from Roger Koch to support research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A data-driven method to estimate contamination from light ion beam transmutation at colliders

Collisions of relativistic light ions such as oxygen, neon, and magnesium, have been proposed as a way to examine the system-size dependence of dynamics typically associated with the quark-gluon plasma produced in collisions of heavier ions such as xenon, gold, or lead. Recent efforts at both the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and Large Hadron Collider (LHC) have produced large datasets of proton-oxygen, oxygen-oxygen, and neon-neon collisions, catalyzing intense interest in experimental backgrounds associated with light ion collisions. In particular, electromagnetic dissociation of light ions while they are circulating in a collider can result in beam contamination that is difficult to simulate precisely. Here we propose a data-driven method for evaluating the potential impact of beam contaminants on physics analyses. The method exploits the time-dependence and smaller size of contaminant ion species to define control regions that can be used to quantify potential contamination effects. A simple mode

Accelerator Physics (physics.acc-ph)↗