Integrated Distribution PlanningA Proactive Approach for Accommodating High Penetrations of Distributed Generation Resources.
Abstract not provided.
Broderick, Robert Joseph↗
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Cybersecurity Analysis of Distribution Grid Operation with Distributed Energy Resources via Co-Simulation
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Energy - Solar↗
Distributionally Robust Optimization Applied to Distribution Network Operations Under Stochastic Disruptions
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Yang, Haoxiang↗
COMPARING FRAGMENT SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS: CALCULATION OF THE CONFIDENCE WEIGHTED HAZARD DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DISTRIBUTIONS
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Military science - Ordnance↗
Using distributed power electronics-based devices to improve the voltage and frequency stability of distribution systems
Methods include, in response to a line frequency variation of a power grid, adjusting a voltage setpoint of a voltage regulator coupled to the power grid at a grid edge to maintain a voltage at the grid edge, wherein the adjusting the regulated voltage setpoint is configured to reduce the line frequency variation to stabilize the line frequency of the power grid. Apparatus include a voltage regulator configured to couple to a power grid at a grid edge and to maintain a voltage at the grid edge, wherein the voltage regulator is further configured to adjust a voltage setpoint of a voltage regulator in response to a line frequency variation of the power grid to reduce the line frequency variation and stabilize the line frequency of the power grid.
Du, Wei↗
Reusable, Extensible High-Level Data-Distribution Concept
A framework for high-level specification of data distributions in data-parallel application programs has been conceived. [As used here, distributions signifies means to express locality (more specifically, locations of specified pieces of data) in a computing system composed of many processor and memory components connected by a network.] Inasmuch as distributions exert a great effect on the performances of application programs, it is important that a distribution strategy be flexible, so that distributions can be adapted to the requirements of those programs. At the same time, for the sake of productivity in programming and execution, it is desirable that users be shielded from such error-prone, tedious details as those of communication and synchronization. As desired, the present framework enables a user to refine a distribution type and adjust it to optimize the performance of an application program and conceals, from the user, the low-level details of communication and synchronization. The framework provides for a reusable, extensible, data-distribution design, denoted the design pattern, that is independent of a concrete implementation. The design pattern abstracts over coding patterns that have been found to be commonly encountered in both manually and automatically generated distributed parallel programs. The following description of the present framework is necessarily oversimplified to fit within the space available for this article. Distributions are among the elements of a conceptual data-distribution machinery, some of the other elements being denoted domains, index sets, and data collections (see figure). Associated with each domain is one index set and one distribution. A distribution class interface (where "class" is used in the object-oriented-programming sense) includes operations that enable specification of the mapping of an index to a unit of locality. Thus, "Map(Index)" specifies a unit, while "LocalLayout(Index)" specifies the local address within that unit. The distribution class can be extended to enable specification of commonly used distributions or novel user-defined distributions. A data collection can be defined over a domain. The term "data collection" in this context signifies, more specifically, an abstraction of mappings from index sets to variables. Since the index set is distributed, the addresses of the variables are also distributed.
James, Mark↗
Control of Ionomer Distribution and Porosity in Roll-to-Roll Coated Fuel Cell Catalyst Layers
As fuel cells transition from the laboratory to industrial production for vehicles and other applications there is a need to understand how manufacturing processes impact the properties and, ultimately, the performance of materials. Roll-to-roll coating enables processing at meters per second speeds with physics that can be quite different from common laboratory coating methods. In this work, we have focused on the coating of catalyst layers for proton exchange membrane fuel cells. Commonly, laboratory samples are prepared using spray coating or hand painting, which effectively coat many thin layers to achieve the desired catalyst layer thickness. This creates catalyst layers with uniform distributions of materials throughout the thickness of the full catalyst layer. In contrast, roll-to-roll methods, like slot die and gravure, coat the catalyst layer as a single wet film. As the film dries, ink constituents are able to segregate, leading to a heterogeneous distribution of materials through the thickness of the layer. It is also known that solvent and drying rate can affect the morphology of the catalyst layer. Thus, there is a need to understand how ink formulation and the drying process influence the distribution of materials and catalyst layer morphology. Here, we have explored the influence of solvent and drying rate on morphology of roll-to-roll coated catalyst layers. We show the development of the Kelvin probe method as a rapid screening technique for qualitative analysis of ionomer distribution. We also utilize nano X-ray computed tomography to visualize electrode structure and to quantify particle-size and pore-size distributions, thickness-dependent ionomer distribution, tortuosity, and effective transport properties. We find that solvent has a strong influence on ionomer distribution, with less of an effect on porosity. Conversely, drying temperature has a strong influence on porosity, but less influence on ionomer distribution. Finally, we utilize in situ fuel cell performance testing and other advanced diagnostics to quantify the impact of catalyst layer properties on fuel cell performance and demonstrate that roll-to-roll coating is capable of coating high performance catalyst layers in multi-meter lengths. have focused on the coating of catalyst layers for proton exchange membrane fuel cells. Commonly, laboratory samples are prepared using spray coating or hand painting, which effectively coat many thin layers to achieve the desired catalyst layer thickness. This creates catalyst layers with uniform distributions of materials throughout the thickness of the full catalyst layer. In contrast, roll-to-roll methods, like slot die and gravure, coat the catalyst layer as a single wet film. As the film dries, ink constituents are able to segregate, leading to a heterogeneous distribution of materials through the thickness of the layer. It is also known that solvent and drying rate can affect the morphology of the catalyst layer. Thus, there is a need to understand how ink formulation and the drying process influence the distribution of materials and catalyst layer morphology. Here, we have explored the influence of solvent and drying rate on morphology of roll-to-roll coated catalyst layers. We show the development of the Kelvin probe method as a rapid screening technique for qualitative analysis of ionomer distribution. We also utilize nano X-ray computed tomography to visualize electrode structure and to quantify particle-size and pore-size distributions, thickness-dependent ionomer distribution, tortuosity, and effective transport properties. We find that solvent has a strong influence on ionomer distribution, with less of an effect on porosity. Conversely, drying temperature has a strong influence on porosity, but less influence on ionomer distribution. Finally, we utilize in situ fuel cell performance testing and other advanced diagnostics to quantify the impact of catalyst layer properties on fuel cell performance and demonstrate that roll-to-roll coating is capable of coating high performance catalyst layers in multi-meter lengths.
30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
Distribution Development for the RDX Regional Model at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 20385
Representing uncertainty in model inputs often means finding a balance between uncertainty and physical reality. Developing wide distributions may seem conservative in principle, but this approach may lead to unrealistic model results. Characterizing the current state of knowledge of stochastic inputs presents many challenges, especially if the data available are limited or have limited relevance to the site. Relationships among these inputs may also be important to represent but are typically complex or difficult to define. Often special adjustments must be made to account for reduced credibility in particular data. If parameters are strongly related to one another, a correlation structure may be developed for input to the model. Other techniques such as regression models may be used to incorporate relationships between the information available and the desired parameters. The process of developing distributions must consider details of the model in terms of what the distribution is meant to represent. This paper uses the example of a probabilistic fate and transport model for hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) in the regional aquifer at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). For many parameters, a single draw is applied to all space and time over which the model is run, for a single iteration. This simplification is often made for many reasons, and can often be beneficial, but also adds additional complexity in the distribution development process. Defining the distributional goals as they relate to the modeling process is an important step, which should take place prior to evaluation of the data. Usually, the distributions developed are meant to characterize the average value of the parameter over the spatial and temporal domain of the model. Distribution development requires consideration of many sources of information on the parameter where available, ideally from multiple references. Examples of different sources include data from different references but also from different conditions, measurement methods, or experimental types. Depending on these conditions and the reliability or relevance of particular references, different sources of data may each contribute valuable information but have varying relevance to the site. In these cases, weighting data unequally is a useful way to incorporate this information. As an example, aqueous dispersivity data are available for a variety of rock types. Only a few values are available for the desired rock type, and this is not enough to develop a distribution. Therefore, dispersivity values from other rock types are included in distribution development but are down-weighted such that the best data have the most influence on the distribution developed. In another case, K{sub d} distributions in the model are meant to represent a known composition of multiple soil types. Data from these materials are weighted accordingly to develop a distribution for the weighted average K{sub d} across soil types. Other cases include varying reliability of different sources, and weighting data according to the confidence in these sources. In some cases, input parameters are correlated with one another. An example is advective porosity, which is positively correlated with total porosity and must be less than total porosity. Paired data with both parameters must exist to discern the relationship between the two parameters and if it is necessary to build a correlation structure into the model. In general, correlated parameters may be represented in the model by a multivariate distribution, or perhaps more desirably, capturing the correlation within the developed distributions which may be treated as independent from one another. In the example of porosity, this can be done by transforming advective porosity into a proportion of total porosity which may be drawn independently from the distribution of total porosity. This paper explores how complex data and correlations can be incorporated to meet the distributional goals of the model, using the RDX regional model as a detailed example. (authors)
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Scale Mixtures of Frechet Distributions as Asymptotic Approximations of Extreme Precipitation
This paper is a further development of the results of [20] where, based on the negative binomial model for the duration of wet periods measured in days [16], an asymptotic approximation was proposed for the distribution of the maximum daily precipitation volume within a wet period. This approximation has the form of a scale mixture of the Fr´echet distribution with the gamma mixing distribution and coincides with the distribution of a positive power of a random variable having the Snedecor–Fisher distribution. Here we extend this result to the mth extremes, m ∈ ℕ, and sample quantiles. The proof of this result is based on the representation of the negative binomial distribution as a mixed geometric (and hence, mixed Poisson) distribution [17] and limit theorems for extreme order statistics in samples with random sizes having mixed Poisson distributions [10]. Some analytic properties of the obtained limit distribution are described. In particular, it is demonstrated that under certain conditions the limit distribution of the maximum precipitation is mixed exponential and hence, is infinitely divisible. It is shown that under the same conditions this limit distribution can be represented as a scale mixture of stable or Weibull or Pareto or folded normal laws. The corresponding product representations for the limit random variable can be used for its computer simulation. The results of fitting this distribution to real data are presented illustrating high adequacy of the proposed model. It is also shown that the limit distribution of sample quantiles is the well-known Student distribution. Several methods are proposed for the estimation of the parameters of the asymptotic distributions. The obtained mixture representations for the limit laws and the corresponding asymptotic approximations provide better insight into the nature of mixed probability (“Bayesian”) models.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Spatial Burnout in Water Reactors with Nonuniform Startup Distributions of Uranium and Boron
Spatial burnout calculations have been made of two types of water moderated cylindrical reactor using boron as a burnable poison to increase reactor life. Specific reactors studied were a version of the Submarine Advanced Reactor (sAR) and a supercritical water reactor (SCW) . Burnout characteristics such as reactivity excursion, neutron-flux and heat-generation distributions, and uranium and boron distributions have been determined for core lives corresponding to a burnup of approximately 7 kilograms of fully enriched uranium. All reactivity calculations have been based on the actual nonuniform distribution of absorbers existing during intervals of core life. Spatial burnout of uranium and boron and spatial build-up of fission products and equilibrium xenon have been- considered. Calculations were performed on the NACA nuclear reactor simulator using two-group diff'usion theory. The following reactor burnout characteristics have been demonstrated: 1. A significantly lower excursion in reactivity during core life may be obtained by nonuniform rather than uniform startup distribution of uranium. Results for SCW with uranium distributed to provide constant radial heat generation and a core life corresponding to a uranium burnup of 7 kilograms indicated a maximum excursion in reactivity of 2.5 percent. This compared to a maximum excursion of 4.2 percent obtained for the same core life when w'anium was uniformly distributed at startup. Boron was incorporated uniformly in these cores at startup. 2. It is possible to approach constant radial heat generation during the life of a cylindrical core by means of startup nonuniform radial and axial distributions of uranium and boron. Results for SCW with nonuniform radial distribution of uranium to provide constant radial heat generation at startup and with boron for longevity indicate relatively small departures from the initially constant radial heat generation distribution during core life. Results for SAR with a sinusoidal distribution rather than uniform axial distributions of boron indicate significant improvements in axial heat generation distribution during the greater part of core life. 3. Uranium investments for cylindrical reactors with nonuniform radial uranium distributions which provide constant radial heat generation per unit core volume are somewhat higher than for reactors with uniform uranium concentration at startup. On the other hand, uranium investments for reactors with axial boron distributions which approach constant axial heat generation are somewhat smaller than for reactors with uniform boron distributions at startup.
Fox, Thomas A.↗
Introducing the 9500 Node Distribution Test System to Support Advanced Power Applications: An Operations-Focused Approach
The 9500 Node Test System is a representative section of distribution power system model developed as a part of the GridAPPS-D™ project, an effort funded by DOE as a part of the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium (GMLC) program. The test system was developed to fulfill a growing need to represent the rapidly evolving state of electric distribution systems by combining elements of legacy infrastructure systems, modern feeder topologies, and an anticipated future with smart grid technologies. It also provides a network model capable of supporting the simulation of operational scenarios such as the ones in a utility distribution control center. This test system allows the evaluation of the performance of advanced power applications in real-time, such as one that simulates the operations of an Advanced Distribution Management Systems (ADMS), Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems (DERMS), etc. in a Distribution control center. This model is an extension of the widely used IEEE 8500 Node Test Feeder and is currently being validated to become an IEEE test case to help increase adoption and widespread usage among both academia and industry. It is a full-size model representative of a section of a utility’s distribution system with multiple feeders fed from different substations. The model includes multiple distribution circuits, a sub-transmission system, multiple substations, behind the meter customer rooftop photovoltaics (PV), and multiple utility-scale distributed energy resources. To enable accurate simulations of operational scenarios, the 9500 Node Test System is designed to support procedure-based operations, with the ability to realistically demonstrate switching operations, feeder reconfiguration, adjustment of volt-var control equipment, dispatch of distributed generation, and response to planned and unplanned outages. The 9500 Node Test System includes three radial distribution feeders with 12.3 MVA of average load, consisting of both medium voltage and low voltage equipment each supplied by a different distribution substation. The three distribution feeders are connected to each other through Normally-Open switches which can be closed when needed to simulate restoration scenarios due to a fault. One feeder represents today’s grid with low penetration of customer-side renewables. The second represents a potential future grid with microgrids and 100% renewable penetration. The third has no customer generation resources, a district steam plant, and a utility-scale solar farm. The three diverse circuits were created to allow the simulation of both today’s situation as well as potential future scenarios. All three feeders have customers connected by low-voltage secondary triplex lines. This test system meets all requirements outlined in the report for creating a simulation environment that would enable discussion between key technical stakeholders as well as having the potential to accelerate operational application development and their subsequent testing and integration. The new model is a possible representation of what we believe the distribution grid may look like in the future: a high penetration of renewables, reconfigurable radial and mesh topology, numerous DERs, islanded microgrids, and significantly increased data and measurement density. The system supports both the solution of existing and newer algorithms but also enables the evaluation of applications in a realistic operational environment defined by task oriented procedural steps that represent the interaction between the control center operator and field personnel.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Data assimilation for burnup distribution of PWR with three-dimensional variational algorithm and artificial neutral network
In this paper, a data-assimilation method has been proposed and applied for the burnup distribution of PWR. The burnup distribution is significant to the safety and economy of the reactor, as it is essential for the fuel-reloading design and optimization. Due to the burnup distribution cannot be measured directly during the reactor operation, the numerical simulation is widely applied to determine the burnup distribution. However, there is a deviation between the numerical simulation and the actual core due to some unavoidable factors, such as component manufacturing deviation, uneven flow distribution and so on. These differences would induce the errors to the simulation values of power distributions and hence to the burnup distribution. To address this problem, a data-assimilation method for the burnup distribution has been proposed with the application of power-distribution measurements. In our research, the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) algorithm was applied for burnup-distribution calibration and the artificial neutral network (ANN) was applied to establish the relation between power distribution and corresponding burnup distribution. As engineering verification, the proposed data-assimilation method has been applied to the CNP1000 PWR operated in China. The numerical results indicated that the burnup-distribution errors can be reduced notably, as the maximum value of relative errors for power distribution can be reduced from 5.35% to 3.96%. (authors)
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Probability Distribution Estimated From the Minimum, Maximum, and Most Likely Values: Applied to Turbine Inlet Temperature Uncertainty
Modern engineering design practices are tending more toward the treatment of design parameters as random variables as opposed to fixed, or deterministic, values. The probabilistic design approach attempts to account for the uncertainty in design parameters by representing them as a distribution of values rather than as a single value. The motivations for this effort include preventing excessive overdesign as well as assessing and assuring reliability, both of which are important for aerospace applications. However, the determination of the probability distribution is a fundamental problem in reliability analysis. A random variable is often defined by the parameters of the theoretical distribution function that gives the best fit to experimental data. In many cases the distribution must be assumed from very limited information or data. Often the types of information that are available or reasonably estimated are the minimum, maximum, and most likely values of the design parameter. For these situations the beta distribution model is very convenient because the parameters that define the distribution can be easily determined from these three pieces of information. Widely used in the field of operations research, the beta model is very flexible and is also useful for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a random variable given only the aforementioned three values. However, an assumption is required to determine the four parameters of the beta distribution from only these three pieces of information (some of the more common distributions, like the normal, lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distributions, have two or three parameters). The conventional method assumes that the standard deviation is a certain fraction of the range. The beta parameters are then determined by solving a set of equations simultaneously. A new method developed in-house at the NASA Glenn Research Center assumes a value for one of the beta shape parameters based on an analogy with the normal distribution (ref.1). This new approach allows for a very simple and direct algebraic solution without restricting the standard deviation. The beta parameters obtained by the new method are comparable to the conventional method (and identical when the distribution is symmetrical). However, the proposed method generally produces a less peaked distribution with a slightly larger standard deviation (up to 7 percent) than the conventional method in cases where the distribution is asymmetric or skewed. The beta distribution model has now been implemented into the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) module used in the NESSUS computer code for probabilistic analyses of structures (ref. 2).
Holland, Frederic A., Jr.↗
Scaling Input Distributions for Probabilistic Models - 19472
It is important to address scaling issues when building models to support risk-based decisions for radioactive waste disposal sites. Currently, probabilistic risk assessment and probabilistic performance assessment models are run for multiple realizations where each realization uses one value from each input distribution over the entire modeled time. The input distributions represent the current state of knowledge in the mean of the input variable over the spatial region of interest and over the time period of the model run. This paper focuses on the time factor in input distribution scaling because it presents more serious conceptual and distributional challenges than the spatial factor. One of the challenges in temporal scaling is the effect of non-linearity on propagation of distribution uncertainty through to uncertainty in results. Radioactive waste disposal models tend to have both linear and non-linear components in their models. Dose assessment calculations are typically represented by linear models, while contaminant transport models have linear and non-linear components. In principle, temporal scaling of input parameter distributions for a linear model is straightforward, but scaling of input distributions for non-linear models is not. This paper uses examples to investigate the effects of input distribution temporal scaling on simple linear and non-linear models. Different scaling scenarios were investigated by comparing three analysis tools: analytical mathematical representations, statistical software programming, and GoldSim Monte Carlo simulation software. R statistical software is an open source statistical programming language often used for statistical analyses and graphical representation of data. GoldSim is a robust probabilistic dynamic modeling platform used in performance assessment modeling of radioactive waste sites. A simple linear model, a quadratic model and a multiplicative model were the cases explored for each of these tools. For the three analysis tools considered and with each of the scaling cases, 1,000 realizations were implemented from distributions of the random variables of interest. This is a sufficient number of realizations for simple models to capture the model space. An annual temporal resolution of a 100-year simulation period was chosen for all models and analysis tools. The effects of temporal scaling were demonstrated by investigating two different options for time scaling. Option 1 was set up so that the input distributions represented the expected value on an annual time scale, and a new value from that distribution was chosen every year (at every time step which equaled a year) for 100 years. In Option 2, the input distributions were scaled to represent the expected mean value of the input variable over the 100 years of simulation, and one value from that distribution was chosen for the entire elapsed time. Results show agreement across the three analysis tools. As expected, the linear models have identical results for the two different scaling Options, and the non-linear models diverge in the results for different time scale implementation. The implications of this work point to the need for careful consideration of input distribution temporal scaling. (authors)
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Coordinated operation of pumped-storage hydropower with power and water distribution systems
Small pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) units have gained popularity as distributed energy storage options that can provide flexibility to the operation of power distribution systems. Optimal operation of small PSH units is not only dependent on the energy storage provided to power distribution system, but also on the inflow and outflow of water from and to the water distribution system. Here, in this context, this paper develops an optimization model for coordinated operation of PSH units with power and water distribution systems. The proposed model optimizes the operation of water tanks, variable-speed pumps and PSH in pumping and generating modes to minimize the operation cost of power distribution system, while respecting the power flow constraints of power distribution and hydraulic constraints of water distribution system. Appropriate electricity tariffs are implemented to avoid additional expenses in water distribution system that can be enforced by its coordinated operation in favor of power distribution system. The proposed model is implemented on a 33-bus and a 123-bus test power distribution system connected to a 16-node test water distribution system. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed model in tapping PSH flexibility to reduce the operation cost of power and water distribution systems, while meeting the power and water demands.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Layered Coordination Architecture for Resilient Restoration of Power Distribution Systems
The current practices for restoring critical services in the distribution system during a disaster, align with the traditional centralized ideology of distribution systems operations. A central processor evaluates the distribution system after a disruption and attains a restoration plan. However, the centralized operational paradigm is susceptible to single-point failures, requires full situational awareness of the distribution system, and poses scalability challenges for large multifeeder distribution systems. This motivates a distributed decision-making paradigm where multiple agents solve smaller subproblems and jointly coordinate their individual decisions to achieve the global/network-level objective. Toward this goal, we propose a layered architecture for distributed algorithms for resilience and a two-stage distributed algorithm for distribution system restoration. The proposed distributed decision-making framework enables the bottom-up restoration of the distribution system using all available resources, including distributed generation, while only requiring local awareness and limited communications with neighboring connected regions. The proposed framework is robust to single-point failures, enables autonomy using distributed algorithms, and had reduced computational cost compared to centralized optimization solutions.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DLMP of Competitive Markets in Active Distribution Networks: Models, Solutions, Applications, and Visions
Traditionally, the electric distribution system operates with uniform energy prices across all system nodes. However, as the adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) propels a shift from passive to active distribution network (ADN) operation, a distribution-level electricity market has been proposed to manage new complexities efficiently. In addition, distribution locational marginal price (DLMP) has been established in the literature as the primary pricing mechanism. The DLMP inherits the LMP concept in the transmission-level wholesale market but incorporates characteristics of the distribution system, such as high $R/X$ ratios and power losses, system imbalance, and voltage regulation needs. The DLMP provides a solution that can be essential for competitive market operation in future distribution systems. This article first provides an overview of the current distribution-level market architectures and their early implementations. Next, the general clearing model, model relaxations, and DLMP formulation are comprehensively reviewed. The state-of-the-art solution methods for distribution market clearing are summarized and categorized into centralized, distributed, and decentralized methods. Then, DLMP applications for the operation and planning of DERs and distribution system operators (DSOs) are discussed in detail. Finally, visions of future research directions and possible barriers and challenges are presented.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Modeling efficient and equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines
Producing and distributing COVID-19 vaccine during the pandemic is a major logistical challenge requiring careful planning and efficient execution. This report presents information on logistical, policy and technical issues relevant to rapidly fielding a COVID-19 vaccination program. For this study we (a) conducted literature review and subject matter expert elicitation to understand current vaccine manufacturing and distribution capabilities and vaccine allocation strategies, (b) designed a baseline vaccine distribution strategy and modeling strategy to provide insight into the potential for targeted distribution of limited initial vaccine supplies, and (c) developed parametric interfaces to enable vaccine distribution scenarios to be analyzed in depth with Sandias Adaptive Recovery Model that will allow us evaluate the additional sub- populations and alternative distribution scenarios from a public health benefit and associated economic disruption Principal issues, challenges, and complexities that complicate COVID-19 vaccine delivery identified in our literature and subject matter expert investigation include these items: The United States has not mounted an urgent nationwide vaccination campaign in recent history. The existing global manufacturing and distribution infrastructure are not able to produce enough vaccine for the population immediately. Vaccines, once available will be scarce resources. Prioritization for vaccine allocation will be built on existing distribution networks. Vaccine distribution may not have a universal impact on disease transmission and morbidity because of scarcity, priority population demographics, and underlying disease transmission rates. Considerations for designing a vaccine distribution strategy are discussed. A baseline distribution strategy is designed and tested using the Adaptive Recovery Model, which couples a deterministic compartmental epidemiological model and a stochastic network model. We show the impact of this vaccine distribution strategy on hospitalizations, mortality, and contact tracing requirements. This model can be used to quantitatively evaluate alternative distribution scenarios, guiding policy decisions as vaccine candidates are narrowed down.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗