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At least 505 records · Page 28

New insights in the numerical reliability properties of existing Kalman filter implementations

The convergence properties of Kalman filter algorithms are investigated analytically. A theoretical error analysis is performed on four types of algorithms, as defined by Anderson and Moore (1979): (1) a conventional Kalman filter, (2) a square-root (SR) covariance filter, (3) the Chandrasekhar SR filter, and (4) an SR information filter. The derivations are given in detail, and numerical results for the flight-path reconstruction problem studied by Verhaegen (1987) are presented in tables and graphs. It is shown that error propagation in algorithms (1) and (2) is sensitive to the condition number of the innovation-signal covariance matrix and the spectral norm of the filter state-transition matrix, whereas other parameters are dominant in (3) and (4). Filter (2) is found to be the most reliable for the class of problems studied.

Verhaegen, M. H.↗

Radio Occultation Studies of Venus' Atmosphere with Magellan

We have been conducting a systematic study of the middle and lower atmosphere of Venus through analysis of 20 radio occultation experiments conducted with the Magellan spacecraft between October, 1991, and August, 1994. These studies have revealed a rich but sparsely sampled trove of information regarding the structure, composition and dynamics of the Venus atmosphere. The five sets of experiments sampled a variety of latitudes. Basic results include vertical profiles of: (1) electron density in the ionosphere, (2) pressure, temperature, density, and static stability in the neutral atmosphere (from 33 km to 98 km), and (3) sulfuric acid vapor (H2SO4) abundance below the main cloud deck. Further analysis of the temperature profiles led to the discovery of small vertical-scale gravity waves in the neutral atmosphere. The retrieved profiles show intriguing zonal variations that might be due to planetary- scale waves. During the performance period of this grant, we have concentrated on reanalyzing the 15 experiments conducted in 1994 using improved trajectory files for Magellan provided by JPL, obtaining more reliable results, and on conducting an error analysis of the derived profiles. In addition, we have begun an analysis of microwave emission maps of Venus obtained at the Very Large Array (VLA) in April, 1996. This report is organized as follows: A summary of results is presented, giving representative examples of the various physical profiles retrieved from all the Magellan radio occultation studies, emphasizing latitudinal variations evident in the data. Next, a preliminary analysis of the VLA maps is given. A summary of activities follows the scientific results, detailing papers published and presented at various conferences. This report concludes with a "Conclusions and Suggestions for Future Work" section.

Jenkins, Jon M.↗

Methods for the computation of detailed geoids and their accuracy

Two methods for the computation of geoid undulations using potential coefficients and 1 deg x 1 deg terrestrial anomaly data are examined. It was found that both methods give the same final result but that one method allows a more simplified error analysis. Specific equations were considered for the effect of the mass of the atmosphere and a cap dependent zero-order undulation term was derived. Although a correction to a gravity anomaly for the effect of the atmosphere is only about -0.87 mgal, this correction causes a fairly large undulation correction that was not considered previously. The accuracy of a geoid undulation computed by these techniques was estimated considering anomaly data errors, potential coefficient errors, and truncation (only a finite set of potential coefficients being used) errors. It was found that an optimum cap size of 20 deg should be used. The geoid and its accuracy were computed in the Geos 3 calibration area using the GEM 6 potential coefficients and 1 deg x 1 deg terrestrial anomaly data. The accuracy of the computed geoid is on the order of plus or minus 2 m with respect to an unknown set of best earth parameter constants.

Rapp, R. H.↗

Nonlinear system controller design based on domain of attaction: An application to CELSS analysis and control

Nonlinear system controller design based on the domain of attraction is presented. This is particularly suited to investigating Closed Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) models. In particular, the dynamic consequences of changes in the waste storage capacity and system mass, and how information is used for control in CELSS models are examined. The models' high dimensionality and nonlinear state equations make them difficult to analyze by any other technique. The domain of attraction is the region in initial conditions that tend toward an attractor and it is delineated by randomly selecting initial conditions from the region of state space being investigated. Error analysis is done by repeating the domain simulations with independent samples. A refinement of this region is the domain of performance which is the region of initial conditions meeting a performance criteria. In nonlinear systems, local stability does not insure stability over a larger region. The domain of attraction marks out this stability region; hence, it can be considered a measure of a nonlinear system's ability to recovery from state perturbations. Considering random perturbations, the minimum radius of the domain is a measure of the magnitude of perturbations for which recovery is guaranteed. Design of both linear and nonlinear controllers are shown. Three CELSS models, with 9 to 30 state variable, are presented. Measures of the domain of attraction are used to show the global behavior of these models under a variety of design and controller scenarios.

Babcock, P. S., IV↗

Orbit Determination of Spacecraft in Earth-Moon L1 and L2 Libration Point Orbits

The ARTEMIS mission, part of the THEMIS extended mission, is the first to fly spacecraft in the Earth-Moon Lissajous regions. In 2009, two of the five THEMIS spacecraft were redeployed from Earth-centered orbits to arrive in Earth-Moon Lissajous orbits in late 2010. Starting in August 2010, the ARTEMIS P1 spacecraft executed numerous stationkeeping maneuvers, initially maintaining a lunar L2 Lissajous orbit before transitioning into a lunar L1 orbit. The ARTEMIS P2 spacecraft entered a L1 Lissajous orbit in October 2010. In April 2011, both ARTEMIS spacecraft will suspend Lissajous stationkeeping and will be maneuvered into lunar orbits. The success of the ARTEMIS mission has allowed the science team to gather unprecedented magnetospheric measurements in the lunar Lissajous regions. In order to effectively perform lunar Lissajous stationkeeping maneuvers, the ARTEMIS operations team has provided orbit determination solutions with typical accuracies on the order of 0.1 km in position and 0.1 cm/s in velocity. The ARTEMIS team utilizes the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS), using a batch least squares method, to process range and Doppler tracking measurements from the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN), Berkeley Ground Station (BGS), Merritt Island (MILA) station, and United Space Network (USN). The team has also investigated processing of the same tracking data measurements using the Orbit Determination Tool Kit (ODTK) software, which uses an extended Kalman filter and recursive smoother to estimate the orbit. The orbit determination results from each of these methods will be presented and we will discuss the advantages and disadvantages associated with using each method in the lunar Lissajous regions. Orbit determination accuracy is dependent on both the quality and quantity of tracking measurements, fidelity of the orbit force models, and the estimation techniques used. Prior to Lissajous operations, the team determined the appropriate quantity of tracking measurements that would be needed to meet the required orbit determination accuracies. Analysts used the Orbit Determination Error Analysis System (ODEAS) to perform covariance analyses using various tracking data schedules. From this analysis, it was determined that 3.5 hours of DSN TRK-2-34 range and Doppler tracking data every other day would suffice to meet the predictive orbit knowledge accuracies in the Lissajous region. The results of this analysis are presented. Both GTDS and ODTK have high-fidelity environmental orbit force models that allow for very accurate orbit estimation in the lunar Lissajous regime. These models include solar radiation pressure, Earth and Moon gravity models, third body gravitational effects from the Sun, and to a lesser extent third body gravitational effects from Jupiter, Venus, Saturn, and Mars. Increased position and velocity uncertainties following each maneuver, due to small execution performance errors, requires that several days of post-maneuver tracking data be processed to converge on an accurate post-maneuver orbit solution. The effects of maneuvers on orbit determination accuracy will be presented, including a comparison of the batch least squares technique to the extended Kalman filter/smoother technique. We will present the maneuver calibration results derived from processing post-maneuver tracking data. A dominant error in the orbit estimation process is the uncertainty in solar radiation pressure and the resultant force on the spacecraft. An estimation of this value can include many related factors, such as the uncertainty in spacecraft reflectivity and surface area which is a function of spacecraft orientation (spin-axis attitude), uncertainty in spacecraft wet mass, and potential seasonal variability due to the changing direction of the Sun line relative to the Earth-Moon Lissajous reference frame. In addition, each spacecraft occasionally enters into Earth or Moon penumbra or umbra and these shadow crossings reduche solar radiation force for several hours. The effects of these events on orbit determination accuracy will be presented. In order to plan for upcoming stationkeeping maneuvers, the maneuver planning team must take the current orbit estimate, propagate it forward to the planned maneuver time, and determine the optimal maneuver to maintain the Lissajous orbit for one or more revolutions. The propagation is performed using a Runge-Kutta 7/8 integrator and typically the position and velocity uncertainty increases with propagation time, increasing the overall uncertainty of the orbit state at the maneuver execution time. The effect of orbit knowledge uncertainty on stationkeeping operations will be presented.

Woodard, Mark↗

Four applications of a software data collection and analysis methodology

The evaluation of software technologies suffers because of the lack of quantitative assessment of their effect on software development and modification. A seven-step data collection and analysis methodology couples software technology evaluation with software measurement. Four in-depth applications of the methodology are presented. The four studies represent each of the general categories of analyses on the software product and development process: blocked subject-project studies, replicated project studies, multi-project variation studies, and single project strategies. The four applications are in the areas of, respectively, software testing, cleanroom software development, characteristic software metric sets, and software error analysis.

Basili, Victor R.↗

Modeling laser velocimeter signals as triply stochastic Poisson processes

Previous models of laser Doppler velocimeter (LDV) systems have not adequately described dual-scatter signals in a manner useful for analysis and simulation of low-level photon-limited signals. At low photon rates, an LDV signal at the output of a photomultiplier tube is a compound nonhomogeneous filtered Poisson process, whose intensity function is another (slower) Poisson process with the nonstationary rate and frequency parameters controlled by a random flow (slowest) process. In the present paper, generalized Poisson shot noise models are developed for low-level LDV signals. Theoretical results useful in detection error analysis and simulation are presented, along with measurements of burst amplitude statistics. Computer generated simulations illustrate the difference between Gaussian and Poisson models of low-level signals.

Mayo, W. T., Jr.↗

Kinetic energy budgets in areas of intense convection

A kinetic energy budget analysis of the AVE-SESAME 1 period which coincided with the deadly Red River Valley tornado outbreak is presented. Horizontal flux convergence was found to be the major kinetic energy source to the region, while cross contour destruction was the major sink. Kinetic energy transformations were dominated by processes related to strong jet intrusion into the severe storm area. A kinetic energy budget of the AVE 6 period also is presented. The effects of inherent rawinsonde data errors on widely used basic kinematic parameters, including velocity divergence, vorticity advection, and kinematic vertical motion are described. In addition, an error analysis was performed in terms of the kinetic energy budget equation. Results obtained from downward integration of the continuity equation to obtain kinematic values of vertical motion are described. This alternate procedure shows promising results in severe storm situations.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗

In-situ relative calibration of Bragg crystals with Monte Carlo line ratio analysis

X-ray line emission spectra can thoroughly characterize hot plasmas, especially when line shapes and ratios convey distinct aspects of plasma conditions. However, the high spectral resolution required for observing line shapes is often at odds with the large bandwidth required to observe many line ratios across a wide spectral range. One strategy to obtain high spectral resolution over a wide bandwidth is to use multiple crystals with calibrated reflectivity so that line intensities across different crystals can be compared. Here, we explore the use of a low-resolution, wide-bandwidth mica survey spectrometer to infer relative reflectivity of two high-resolution, narrow-bandwidth quartz crystals. Finally, a Monte Carlo error analysis determines comparable x-ray line ratios measured from both spectrometers, resulting in an in situ calibration factor and associated uncertainty for the relative reflectivity of the high-resolution crystals.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Skylab program: Earth resources experiment package. Sensor performance evaluation. Volume 6: (S194) L-band radiometer

Analysis of the Skylab S194 L-band radiometer experiment data provided significant results pertaining to the actual realized performance during flight. Analysis of preflight test data provided a baseline from which to compare the experiment flight performance, although many radiometric data performance capabilities could only be demonstrated in the flight environment. The final results establish the overall hardware performance of the S194 system from which prospective users of the flight data can refer for various scientific applications. Instrument performance is presented in the areas of housekeeping and internal calibration parameters, antenna system integrity, dynamic range, linearity, precision, resolution, and absolute accuracy. Supplementary evaluations were included for an error analysis of system calibration stability. Results of the evaluation show that the instrument performance was generally as expected. Conclusions are drawn from the final evaluation results, and recommendations for improving the effectiveness of a future program are offered.

Kenney, G. P.↗

Error in total ozone measurements arising from aerosol attenuation

A generalized least squares method for deducing both total ozone and aerosol extinction spectrum parameters from Dobson spectrophotometer measurements was developed. An error analysis applied to this system indicates that there is little advantage to additional measurements once a sufficient number of line pairs have been employed to solve for the selected detail in the attenuation model. It is shown that when there is a predominance of small particles (less than about 0.35 microns in diameter) the total ozone from the standard AD system is too high by about one percent. When larger particles are present the derived total ozone may be an overestimate or an underestimate but serious errors occur only for narrow polydispersions.

Thomas, R. W. L.↗

Convergence of Weak-SINDy Surrogate Models

In this paper, we give an in-depth error analysis for surrogate models generated by a variant of the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) method. We start with an overview of a variety of nonlinear system identification techniques, namely SINDy, weak-SINDy, and the occupation kernel method. Under the assumption that the dynamics are a finite linear combination of a set of basis functions, these methods establish a linear system to recover coefficients. We illuminate the structural similarities between these techniques and establish a projection property for the weak-SINDy technique. Following the overview, we analyze the error of surrogate models generated by a simplified version of weak-SINDy. In particular, under the assumption of boundedness of a composition operator given by the solution, we show that (i) the surrogate dynamics converges towards the true dynamics and (ii) the solution of the surrogate model is reasonably close to the true solution. Finally, as an application, we discuss the use of a combination of weak-SINDy surrogate modeling and proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to build a surrogate model for partial differential equations (PDEs).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Developing A Custom-Built Metal Aerosol Processing Chamber: Analysis of Aerosol Coagulation at Low Humidities

We have developed an intermediate size (906 L) aerosol processing chamber, and this work reports on the design and initial characterization of dry aerosol experiments. Specifically, we are determining wall-loss and coagulation correction factors using the observed size distribution measurements for surrogates of common aerosol classes: sodium chloride, sucrose, and biomass burning aerosol smoke. Results show that, on average, sodium chloride, sucrose, and smoke wall-loss rates converge to similar values on relatively short time scales (< 1 h). The fitted coagulation correction factor, W C -1 , for smoke particles (1.23 ± 0.312), indicates that on average they adhere to each other more than sodium chloride (0.969 ± 0.524) and sucrose (1.16 ± 1.38). The relative uncertainty is high for the coagulation correction, but it is consistent with our Monte Carlo error analysis. This study lays the foundation for future experiments at elevated humidity and supersaturation conditions to characterize the influence of particle shape on coagulation and cloud parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Navigation requirements for rendezvous with the satellites of Mars.

Navigation aspects of a rendezvous mission to Deimos (the outer satellite of Mars) were examined using a modified Viking Monte Carlo error analysis program. Rendezvous is initiated by two-impulse transfer from an observation orbit cotangent with the orbit of Deimos. Television sightings of the satellite against a star background will allow a 20 km closest approach radius (R99) 99% of the time. This is well within the 100 km range of the terminal rendezvous radar. An additional delta-V capability of about 100 m/sec (above the nominal) must be allocated to account for the statistical nature of the mission. This delta-V requirement was found to be very sensitive to the level of satellite ephemeris error and maneuver execution error. The R99 on the other hand, is sensitive to the in-orbit DSN error and the maneuver execution error.

Satin, A. L.↗

Version 2 Ozone Monitoring Instrument SO2 Product (OMSO2 V2): New Anthropogenic SO2 Vertical Column Density Dataset

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has been providing global observations of SO2 pollution since 2004. Here we introduce the new anthropogenic SO2 vertical column density (VCD) dataset in the version 2 OMI SO2 product (OMSO2 V2). As with the previous version (OMSO2 V1.3), the new dataset is generated with an algorithm based on principal component analysis of OMI radiances, but features several updates. The most important among those is the use of expanded lookup tables and model a priori profiles to estimate SO2 Jacobians for individual OMI pixels, in order to better characterize pixel-to-pixel variations in SO2 sensitivity, including over snow and ice. Additionally, new data screening and spectral fitting schemes have been implemented to improve the quality of the spectral fit. As compared with the planetary boundary layer SO2 dataset in OMSO2 V1.3, the new dataset has substantially better data quality, especially over areas that are relatively clean or affected by the south Atlantic anomaly. The updated retrievals over snow/ice yield more realistic seasonal changes in SO2 at high latitudes and offer enhanced sensitivity to sources during wintertime. An error analysis has been conducted to assess uncertainties in SO2 VCDs from both the spectral fit and Jacobian calculations. The uncertainties from spectral fitting are reflected in SO2 slant column densities (SCDs) and largely depend on the signal-to-noise ratio of the measured radiances, as implied by the generally smaller SCD uncertainties over clouds or for smaller solar zenith angles. The SCD uncertainties for individual pixels are estimated to be~0.15-0.3 DU (Dobson Units) between ~40°S and ~40°N and to be~0.2-0.5 DU at higher latitudes. The uncertainties from the Jacobians are approximately ~50-100% over polluted areas, and primarily attributed to errors in SO2 a priori profiles and cloud pressures, as well as the lack of explicit treatment for aerosols. Finally, the daily mean and median SCDs over the presumably SO2-free equatorial East Pacific have increased by only~0.0035 DU and ~0.003 DU respectively over the entire 15-year OMI record; while the standard deviation of SCDs has grown by only~0.02 DU or ~10%. Such remarkable long-term stability makes the new dataset particularly suitable for detecting regional changes in SO2 pollution.

OMI, SO2, Remote Sensing↗

Demonstration of rapid and sensitive module leak certification for Space Station Freedom

A leak detection and quantification demonstration using perflurocarbon tracer (PFT) technology was successfully performed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center on January 25, 1991. The real-time Dual Trap Analyzer (DTA) at one-half hour after the start of the first run gave an estimated leak rate of 0.7 mL/min. This has since been refined to be 1.15 (+ or -) 0.09 mL/min. The leak rates in the next three runs were determined to be 9.8 (+ or -) 0.7, -0.4 (+ or -) 0.3, and 76 (+ or -) 6 mL/min, respectively. The theory on leak quantification in the steady-state and time-dependent modes for a single zone test facility was developed and applied to the above determinations. The laboratory PFT analysis system gave a limit-of-detection (LOD) of 0.05 fL for ocPDCH. This is the tracer of choice and is about 100-fold better than that for the DTA. Applied to leak certification, the LOD is about 0.00002 mL/s (0.000075 L/h), a 5 order-of-magnitude improvement over the original leak certification specification. Furthermore, this limit can be attained in a measurement period of 3 to 4 hours instead of days, weeks, or months. A new Leak Certification Facility is also proposed to provide for zonal (three zones) determination of leak rates. The appropriate multizone equations, their solutions, and error analysis have already been derived. A new concept of seal-integrity certification has been demonstrated for a variety of controlled leaks in the range of module leak testing. High structural integrity leaks were shown to have a linear dependence of flow on (Delta)p. The rapid determination of leak rates at different pressures is proposed and is to be determined while subjecting the module to other external force-generating parameters such as vibration, torque, solar intensity, etc.

Dietz, R. N.↗

Can the standard radiosonde system meet special atmospheric research needs

As a part of a rather comprehensive study of instrument reliability and error analysis, 21 balloon-borne dual radiosonde flights were launched and tracked with a precision C-band (FPS-16) radar as well as with the usual radiosonde tracking system. Radar provides an independent means for obtaining altitude data of order 10 meter accuracy. The 18 successful flights were investigated to determine repeatability of the pressure and temperature measurements. The obtained results show that the current aneroid pressure cell is the least repeatable member of the radiosonde's measurement components. Generally, the rms differences of the pressure measurements were found to be between 1 and 2 mbar throughout the altitude range of the instrument. Although these errors are large, they are not serious in the context of synoptic use. However, serious consideration must be given to these instrumental characteristics in connection with single station, nonsynoptic research objectives.

Schmidlin, F. J.↗

Massively Parallel Assimilation of TOGA/TAO and Topex/Poseidon Measurements into a Quasi Isopycnal Ocean General Circulation Model Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter

A massively parallel ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)is used to assimilate temperature data from the TOGA/TAO array and altimetry from TOPEX/POSEIDON into a Pacific basin version of the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP)ls quasi-isopycnal ocean general circulation model. The EnKF is an approximate Kalman filter in which the error-covariance propagation step is modeled by the integration of multiple instances of a numerical model. An estimate of the true error covariances is then inferred from the distribution of the ensemble of model state vectors. This inplementation of the filter takes advantage of the inherent parallelism in the EnKF algorithm by running all the model instances concurrently. The Kalman filter update step also occurs in parallel by having each processor process the observations that occur in the region of physical space for which it is responsible. The massively parallel data assimilation system is validated by withholding some of the data and then quantifying the extent to which the withheld information can be inferred from the assimilation of the remaining data. The distributions of the forecast and analysis error covariances predicted by the ENKF are also examined.

Keppenne, Christian L.↗