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At least 505 records · Page 28

Hybrid Simulation of Solar-Wind-Like Turbulence

We present 2.5D hybrid simulations of the spectral and thermodynamic evolution of an initial state of magnetic field and plasma variables that in many ways represents solar wind fluctuations. In accordance with Helios near-Sun high-speed stream observations, we start with Alfvénic fluctuations along a mean magnetic field in which the fluctuations in the magnitude of the magnetic field are minimized. Since fluctuations in the radial flow speed are the dominant free energy in the observed fluctuations, we include a field-aligned v∥(k⊥) with an k(exp −1) spectrum of velocity fluctuations to drive the turbulent evolution. The flow rapidly distorts the Alfvénic fluctuations, yielding spectra (determined by spacecraft-like cuts) transverse to the field that become comparable to the k∥ fluctuations, as in spacecraft observations. The initial near constancy of the magnetic field is lost during the evolution; we show this also takes place observationally. We find some evolution in the anisotropy of the thermal fluctuations, consistent with expectations based on Helios data. We present 2D spectra of the fluctuations, showing the evolution of the power spectrum and cross-helicity. Despite simplifying assumptions, many aspects of simulations and observations agree. The greatly faster evolution in the simulations is at least in part due to the small scales being simulated, but also to the non-equilibrium initial conditions and the relatively low overall Alfvénicity of the initial fluctuations.

Roberts, D. Aaron↗

Seasonal Prediction with the GEOS GCM

A number of ensembles of seasonal forecasts have recently been completed as part of NASA's Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP). The focus is on the extratropical response of the atmosphere to observed SST anomalies during boreal winter. Each prediction consists of nine forecasts starting from slightly different initial conditions. Forecasts are done for every winter from 1981 to 1995 using Version 2 of the GEOS GCM. Comparisons with six long-term integrations (1978-1995) using the same model are used to separate the contributions of initial and boundary conditions to forecast skill. The forecasts also allow us to isolate the SSt forced response (the signal) from the atmosphere's natural variability (the noise).

Suarez, Max↗

Uncertainties in Local Intense Precipitation Flood Modeling

In the Task 1 report for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) funded Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Pilot Study, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) reviewed hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approaches for estimation of LIP flooding and their implementation in readily available simulation software packages (Prasad and Yuan 2020). NRC’s interest is in developing guidance for performing LIP PFHA at nuclear power plant (NPP) sites. This report describes the work done under Task 2 of the study that focused on describing uncertainties associated with LIP flood modeling. Two main types of uncertainties exist in LIP flood modeling: (1) aleatory uncertainties that arise from the inherent natural variability of the hydrometeorological system and (2) epistemic uncertainties that arise from the analysts’ incomplete knowledge of the hydrometeorological and site configuration. Principal sources for aleatory variability in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include precipitation (i.e., magnitude, duration, and temporal distribution of LIP events), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture content, stormwater drainage discharge, surface storage), boundary conditions (e.g., upstream discharge, downstream water surface elevations), and long-term temporal trends (e.g., climate change). This report describes approaches used for estimating the aleatory variability in precipitation including precipitation-frequency analysis, numerical weather prediction, and stochastic weather generation. Data sources that can be used to estimate aleatory variability in initial and boundary conditions are also described. Approaches to include effects of long-term trends like those from climate change into estimation of aleatory variability are summarized. Sources of epistemic uncertainty in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include process representation (e.g., multiple approaches to represent runoff generation, stormwater drainage, and hydraulic routing), site configurations (e.g., site layout, flow features, status of temporary flood protection, blockage of drains), model resolution, and long-term temporal trends (e.g., known/planned site alterations, land-use changes at and in the vicinity of the site). The report describes alternative process representations (methods and models), particularly those implemented in the LIP flood simulation software packages reviewed in Task 1 report, and lists the associated model parameters. Approaches for estimating model parameters when surface and subsurface water exchanges occur are also described.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modeling the Formation and Eruption of Coronal Structures by Linking Data-Driven Magnetofrictional and MHD Simulations for AR 12673

Context .The data-driven and time-dependent modeling of coronal magnetic fields is crucial for understanding solar eruptions. These efforts are complicated by the challenges of finding a balance between physical realism and computing efficiency. One possible technique is to couple two modeling approaches. Aims . Our aim here is to showcase our progress in using time-dependent magnetofrictional model (TMFM) results as input to dynamical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. However, due to the different evolution processes in these two models, using TMFM snapshots in an MHD simulation is nontrivial. We address these issues, both physically and numerically, discuss the incompatibility of the TMFM output to serve as the initial condition in MHD simulations, and show our methods of mitigating this. The evolution of the flux systems and the cause of the eruption are investigated. Methods . TMFM is a prevalent approach that has proven to be a very useful tool in the study of the formation of unstable structures in the solar corona. In particular, it is capable of incorporating observational data as initial and boundary conditions and requires shorter computational time compared to MHD simulations. To leverage the efficiency of data-driven TMFM and also to simulate eruptive events in the MHD framework, one can apply TMFM up to a certain time before the expected eruption(s) and then proceed with the simulation in the full or ideal MHD regime in order to more accurately capture the eruption process. Results . We show the results of a benchmark test case with a linked TMFM and MHD simulation to study the evolution of NOAA active region 12673. A rise of a twisted flux bundle through the MHD simulation domain is observed, but we find that the rate of the rise and the altitude reached depends on the time of the TMFM snapshot that was used to initialize the MHD simulation and the helicity injected into the system. The analysis suggested that torus instability and slip-running reconnection could play an important role in the eruption. Conclusions . The results show that the linkage of TMFM and zero-β MHD models can be successfully used to model the eruptive coronal magnetic fields.

F. Daei↗

Comments on "The Sensitivity Study of Radiative-Convective Equilibrium in the Tropics with a Convective Resolving Model"

In general, there are two broad scientific objectives when using cloud resolving models (CRMs or cloud ensemble models-CEMs) to study tropical convection. The first one is to use them as a physics resolving models to understand the dynamic and microphysical processes associated with the tropical water and energy cycles and their role in the climate system. The second approach is to use the CRMs to improve the representation of moist processes and their interaction with radiation in large-scale models. In order to improve the credibility of the CRMs and achieve the above goals, CRMs using identical initial conditions and large-scale influences need to produce very similar results. Two CRMs produced different statistical equilibrium (SE) states even though both used the same initial thermodynamic and wind conditions. Sensitivity tests to identify the major physical processes that determine the SE states for the different CRM simulations were performed. Their results indicated that atmospheric horizontal wind is treated quite differently in these two CRMs. The model that had stronger surface winds and consequently larger latent and sensible heat fluxes from the ocean produced a warmer and more humid modeled thermodynamic SE state. In addition, the domain mean thermodynamic state is more unstable for those experiments that produced a warmer and more humid SE state. Their simulated wet (warm and humid) SE states are thermally more stable in the lower troposphere (from the surface to 4-5 km in altitude). The large-scale horizontal advective effects on temperature and water vapor mixing ratio are needed when using CRMs to perform long-term integrations to study convective feedback under specified large-scale environments. In addition, it is suggested that the dry and cold SE state simulated was caused by enhanced precipitation but not enough surface evaporation. We find some problems with the interpretation of these three phenomena.

Tao, W.-K.↗

Ensemble flow reconstruction in the atmospheric boundary layer from spatially limited measurements through latent diffusion models

Due to costs and practical constraints, field campaigns in the atmospheric boundary layer typically only measure a fraction of the atmospheric volume of interest. Machine learning techniques have previously successfully reconstructed unobserved regions of flow in canonical fluid mechanics problems and two-dimensional geophysical flows, but these techniques have not yet been demonstrated in the three-dimensional atmospheric boundary layer. Here, we conduct a numerical analogue of a field campaign with spatially limited measurements using large-eddy simulation. We pose flow reconstruction as an inpainting problem, and reconstruct realistic samples of turbulent, three-dimensional flow with the use of a latent diffusion model. The diffusion model generates physically plausible turbulent structures on larger spatial scales, even when input observations cover less than 1% of the volume. Through a combination of qualitative visualization and quantitative assessment, we demonstrate that the diffusion model generates meaningfully diverse samples when conditioned on just one observation. These samples successfully serve as initial conditions for a large-eddy simulation code. We find that diffusion models show promise and potential for other applications for other turbulent flow reconstruction problems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The effects of the laminar/turbulent boundary layer states on the development of a plane mixing layer

The effect of the laminar/turbulent boundary layer state on the mean and rms velocities of a developing plane mixing layer was investigated. The use of commonly accepted nondimensional representations of the data confirm (at least) an approximately self-preserving condition. It is suggested that the effects of the laminar/turbulent initial condition persist in the self-preserving region.

Foss, J. F.↗

Middle atmosphere project. A semi-spectral numerical model for the large-scale stratospheric circulation

The complete model is a semispectral model in which the longitudinal dependence is represented by expansion in zonal harmonics while the latitude and height dependencies are represented by a finite difference grid. The model is based on the primitive equations in the log pressure coordinate system. The lower boundary of the model domain is set at the 100 mb level (i.e., near the tropopause) and the effects of tropospheric forcing are included in the lower boundary condition. The upper boundary is at approximately 96 km, and the latitudinal extent is either global or hemispheric. The basic differential equations and boundary conditions are outlined. The finite difference equations are described. The initial conditions are discussed and a sample calculation is presented. The FORTRAN code is given in the appendix.

Holton, J. R.↗

Heat conduction in cooling flows

It has been suggested that electron conduction may significantly reduce the accretion rate (and star foramtion rate) for cooling flows in clusters of galaxies. A numerical hydrodynamics code was used to investigate the time behavior of cooling flows with conduction. The usual conduction coefficient is modified by an efficiency factor, mu, to realize the effects of tangled magnetic field lines. Two classes of models are considered, one where mu is independent of position and time, and one where inflow stretches the field lines and changes mu. In both cases, there is only a narrow range of initial conditions for mu in which the cluster accretion rate is reduced while a significant temperature gradient occurs. In the first case, no steady solution exists in which both conditions are met. In the second case, steady state solutions occur in which both conditions are met, but only for a narrow range of initial values where mu = 0.001.

Bregman, Joel N.↗

Modeling and data analysis of the NASA-WSTF frictional heating apparatus - Effects of test parameters on friction coefficient

A theoretical model is being developed jointly by the NASA White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) and the University of California at Santa Barbara (UCSB) to analyze data generated from the WSTF frictional heating test facility. Analyses of the data generated in the first seconds of the frictional heating test are shown to be effective in determining the friction coefficient between the rubbing interfaces. Different friction coefficients for carobn steel and Monel K-500 are observed. The initial condition of the surface is shown to affect only the initial value of the friction coefficient but to have no significant influence on the average steady-state friction coefficient. Rotational speed and the formation of oxide film on the rotating surfaces are shown to have a significant effect on the friction coefficient.

Zhu, Sheng-Hu↗

The Effect of Temperature and Solution pH on the Nucleation of Tetragonal Lysozyme Crystals

Part of the challenge of macromolecular crystal growth for structure determination is obtaining crystals with a volume suitable for x-ray analysis. In this respect an understanding of the effect of solution conditions on macromolecule nucleation rates is advantageous. This study investigated the effects of supersaturation, temperature, and pH on the nucleation rate of tetragonal lysozyme crystals. Batch crystallization plates were prepared at given solution concentrations and incubated at set temperatures over 1 week. The number of crystals per well with their size and axial ratios were recorded and correlated with solution conditions. Crystal numbers were found to increase with increasing supersaturation and temperature. The most significant variable, however, was pH; crystal numbers changed by two orders of magnitude over the pH range 4.0-5.2. Crystal size also varied with solution conditions, with the largest crystals obtained at pH 5.2. Having optimized the crystallization conditions, we prepared a batch of crystals under the same initial conditions, and 50 of these crystals were analyzed by x-ray diffraction techniques. The results indicate that even under the same crystallization conditions, a marked variation in crystal properties exists.

Judge, Russell A.↗

Method for suppressing noise in measurements

Techniques of combining separate but correlated measurements to form a second-order or higher order correlation function to suppress the effects of noise in the initial condition of a system capable of retaining memory of an initial state of the system with a characteristic relaxation time. At least two separate measurements are obtained from the system. The temporal separation between the two separate measurements is preferably comparable to or less than the characteristic relaxation time and is adjusted to allow for a correlation between two measurements.

Carson, Paul J.↗

Broken Ergodicity in Two-Dimensional Homogeneous Magnetohydrodynamic Turbulence

Two-dimensional (2-D) homogeneous magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence has many of the same qualitative features as three-dimensional (3-D) homogeneous MHD turbulence.The se features include several ideal invariants, along with the phenomenon of broken ergodicity. Broken ergodicity appears when certain modes act like random variables with mean values that are large compared to their standard deviations, indicating a coherent structure or dynamo.Recently, the origin of broken ergodicity in 3-D MHD turbulence that is manifest in the lowest wavenumbers was explained. Here, a detailed description of the origins of broken ergodicity in 2-D MHD turbulence is presented. It will be seen that broken ergodicity in ideal 2-D MHD turbulence can be manifest in the lowest wavenumbers of a finite numerical model for certain initial conditions or in the highest wavenumbers for another set of initial conditions.T he origins of broken ergodicity in ideal 2-D homogeneous MHD turbulence are found through an eigen analysis of the covariance matrices of the modal probability density functions.It will also be shown that when the lowest wavenumber magnetic field becomes quasi-stationary, the higher wavenumber modes can propagate as Alfven waves on these almost static large-scale magnetic structures

Shebalin, John V.↗

Impact of Optimized land Surface Parameters on the Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations of Dry and Wet Extremes

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to the land cover and soil type mapping of the observations and the full domain. The impact of the calibrated parameters on the a) spin up of land surface states used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture fluxes of the coupled (LIS-WRF) simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather, PBL budgets, and precipitation along with L-A coupling diagnostics. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, normal) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity (e.g.,. relating to the representation of the spatial dependence of parameters) and the feasibility of calibrating to multiple observational datasets are also discussed.

Kumar, Sujay↗

Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) Interactions playa critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (US-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF Simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A.↗

Impact of Land Model Calibration on Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry and wet land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through calibration of the Noah land surface model using the new optimization and uncertainty estimation subsystem in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE). The impact of the calibration on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) the simulated heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations is then assessed. Changes in ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling are evaluated along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Results indicate that the offline calibration leads to systematic improvements in land-PBL fluxes and near-surface temperature and humidity, and in the process provide guidance on the questions of what, how, and when to calibrate land surface models for coupled model prediction.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

Impact of Calibrated Land Surface Model Parameters on the Accuracy and Uncertainty of Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

A comparative study of turbulence decay using Navier-Stokes and a discrete particle simulation

A comparative study of the two dimensional temporal decay of an initial turbulent state of flow is presented using a direct Navier-Stokes simulation and a particle method, ranging from the near continuum to more rarefied regimes. Various topics related to matching the initial conditions between the two simulations are considered. The determination of the initial velocity distribution function in the particle method was found to play an important role in the comparison. This distribution was first developed by matching the initial Navier-Stokes state of stress, but was found to be inadequate beyond the near continuum regime. An alternative approach of using the Lees two-sided Maxwellian to match the initial strain-rate is discussed. Results of the comparison of the temporal decay of mean kinetic energy are presented for a range of Knudsen numbers. As expected, good agreement was observed for the near continuum regime, but the differences found for the more rarefied conditions were unexpectedly small.

Goswami, A.↗