Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “lifetime estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solar Cycle 25 Model Prediction Comparisons: an Engineering Perspective

The solar cycle 25 progression is ramping up, prompting satellite operators to provide estimates of propellent usage over the next several years. Drag due to atmospheric heating from solar activity is the main driver to satellite lifetime decay, especially for those in low-Earth orbit destinations. In this poster, several model predictions of the sunspot number are compared and discussed with comments on applicability to engineering programs.

Space Weather↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Lifetime Prediction of Semiconductor Devices Using Hardware-in-the-Loop

This paper presents a unique approach to enable real-time lifespan prediction of semiconductor power modules using a Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) system. By integrating the module's overall loss characteristics-specifically switching and conduction losses-with a thermoelectric model of the thermal management system, this research demonstrates that the model can dynamically estimates the junction temperature profile of the semiconductor devices in response to a changing torque demand profile for the motor drive system. This capability enables continuous monitoring of the module's operational time and cumulative stress induced on the devices to compute accumulated remaining lifetime or time-to-failure (TTF). This study provides an architectural framework for the HIL system with high-fidelity component models of multiple physical domains, allowing simulation of dynamic behaviors of a closely-coupled motor drive system. The advanced real-time computation and measurement functionalities of the HIL system allow for both dynamic lifetime calculations based on simulated data and aggregate lifetime predictions utilizing historical data. Moreover, this paper details an algorithm that not only computes cumulative damage but also synthesizes these data into a comprehensive aggregated lifetime metric. This methodology can enhance the maintenance scheduling strategies and operational reliability of semiconductor devices in critical applications, ultimately extending their service life while optimizing performance.

hardware-in-the-loop (HIL)↗
NASA NTRS2013

On-Orbit Lunar Modulation Transfer Function Measurements for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

Spatial quality of an imaging sensor can be estimated by evaluating its modulation transfer function (MTF) from many different sources such as a sharp edge, a pulse target, or bar patterns with different spatial frequencies. These well-defined targets are frequently used for prelaunch laboratory tests, providing very reliable and accurate MTF measurements. A laboratory-quality edge input source was included in the spatial-mode operation of the Spectroradiometric Calibration Assembly (SRCA), which is one of the onboard calibrators of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Since not all imaging satellites have such an instrument, SRCA MTF estimations can be used as a reference for an on-orbit lunar MTF algorithm and results. In this paper, the prelaunch spatial quality characterization process from the Integrated Alignment Collimator and SRCA is briefly discussed. Based on prelaunch MTF calibration using the SRCA, a lunar MTF algorithm is developed and applied to the lifetime on-orbit Terra and Aqua MODIS lunar collections. In each lunar collection, multiple scan-directionMoon-to-background transition profiles are aligned by the subpixel edge locations from a parametric Fermi function fit. Corresponding accumulated edge profiles are filtered and interpolated to obtain the edge spread function (ESF). The MTF is calculated by applying a Fourier transformation on the line spread function through a simple differentiation of the ESF. The lifetime lunar MTF results are analyzed and filtered by a relationship with the Sun-Earth-MODIS angle. Finally, the filtered lunarMTF values are compared to the SRCA MTF results. This comparison provides the level of accuracy for on-orbit MTF estimations validated through prelaunch SRCA measurements. The lunar MTF values had larger uncertainty than the SRCA MTF results; however, the ratio mean of lunarMTF fit and SRCA MTF values is within 2% in the 250- and 500-m bands. Based on the MTF measurement uncertainty range, the suggested lunar MTF algorithm can be applied to any on-orbit imaging sensor with lunar calibration capability.

Choi, Taeyong↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pumped-Thermal Electricity Storage Based on Brayton Cycles

Pumped-thermal electricity storage (PTES) based on a reversible (Joule-)Brayton cycle is a promising grid-scale energy storage technology, whose working principle is to store electricity in the form of high-grade thermal energy. This chapter provides an overview of the inner workings, operating principle and current development status of the many PTES variants, as proposed to date in the scientific literature or by manufacturers. The potential and competitiveness of the various candidate designs is quantified by - and discussed thanks to the definition of - specific techno-economic indicators. Investment cost and thermodynamic performance estimates are reported and used to assess the value of this technology as a potential large-scale, long-duration and long-lifetime energy storage option with unique sector-coupling features and low geographical constraints.

electricity storage↗
DOE OSTI2021

Atomic oxygen density determination in the effluent of the COST reference source using in situ effective lifetime measurements in the presence of a liquid interface

Abstract Spatially resolved, absolute densities of atomic oxygen are measured for several helium-based admixtures in the effluent of the COST Reference Microplasma Jet using two-photon absorption laser induced fluorescence (TALIF). Admixtures investigated include a helium-only admixture, four helium/oxygen admixtures (0.1 % , 0.5 % , 0.6 % , and 1.0 % oxygen), and a helium/water admixture (2500 ppm water), chosen to coincide with previously published characterizations of plasma-treated liquid. The atomic oxygen TALIF signal is calibrated for density using the noble gas xenon, which possesses a very similar two-photon excitation and fluorescence scheme. Measurements are conducted for the jet operating in ambient air with both an open effluent and a liquid surface present, allowing for comparison with liquid phase measurements conducted under similar conditions. The presence of a water surface does not appear to alter the background chemistry in the effluent but reduces O densities close to the liquid interface when compared to a similar distance from the nozzle in an open effluent case. This may be the result of a reduction in flow velocity caused by the liquid obstructing the gas flow. Additionally, measurements near the liquid surface revealed a region of atomic oxygen well outside of where the core of the effluent impinges on the liquid. This is likely relevant for applications as it considerably expands the surface area subject to O absorption. Critically, in situ measurements of the effective lifetimes of the laser-excited 3p 3 P J state of atomic oxygen were recorded in the effluent by employing a picosecond (ps) laser and a nanosecond (ns) ICCD. By experimentally determining the contribution from collisional quenching via the in situ effective lifetime measurements, significant improvements in the accuracy of the atomic oxygen density calibration were made, with differences of approximately 30 % from existing methods of estimating quenching rates at atmospheric pressure. Finally, spatially resolved atomic oxygen densities allow for an investigation of O formation and extinction pathways in the effluent and a comparison between admixtures.

laser diagnostics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radar-derived precipitation climatology for wind turbine blade leading edge erosion

Wind turbine blade leading edge erosion (LEE) is a potentially significant source of revenue loss for wind farm operators. Thus, it is important to advance understanding of the underlying causes, to generate geospatial estimates of erosion potential to provide guidance in pre-deployment planning, and ultimately to advance methods to mitigate this effect and extend blade lifetimes. This study focuses on the second issue and presents a novel approach to characterizing the erosion potential across the contiguous USA based solely on publicly available data products from the National Weather Service dual-polarization radar. The approach is described in detail and illustrated using six locations distributed across parts of the USA that have substantial wind turbine deployments. Results from these locations demonstrate the high spatial variability in precipitation-induced erosion potential, illustrate the importance of low-probability high-impact events to cumulative annual total kinetic energy transfer and emphasize the importance of hail as a damage vector.

Letson, Frederick (ORCID:0000000192750359)↗
NASA NTRS1984

On the temporal variation of stratospheric aerosol size and mass during the first 18 months following the 1982 eruptions of El Chichon

Baloon-borne particle counters at Laramie and in southern Texas are used to investigate the size and mass distribution of the aerosol which formed in the stratosphere during the first 18 months following the volcanic eruption of El Chichon. The latter appears to have reached a peak at Laramie in early 1983 and began a decline in May. Measurements of average aerosol radius versus time are used to estimate a sulfuric acid concentration of about 10 to the 7th per cu cm 40 days after the eruption and a net acid vapor lifetime of 25-50 days in the 18-25-km altitude region.

Hofmann, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Small-scale eruptive filaments on the quiet sun

A study of a little known class of eruptive events on the quiet sun was conducted. All of 61 small-scale eruptive filamentary structures were identified in a systematic survey of 32 days of H alpha time-lapse films of the quiet sun acquired at Big Bear Solar Observatory. When fully developed, these structures have an average length of 15 arc seconds before eruption. They appear to be the small-scale analog of large-scale eruptive filaments observed against the disk. At the observed rate of 1.9 small-scale eruptive features per field of view per average 7.0 hour day, the rate of occurence of these events on the sun were estimated to be greater than 600 per 24 hour day.. The average duration of the eruptive phase was 26 minutes while the average lifetime from formation through eruption was 70 minutes. A majority of the small-scale filamentary sturctures were spatially related to cancelling magnetic features in line-of-sight photospheric magnetograms. Similar to large-scale filaments, the small-scale filamentary structures sometimes divided opposite polarity cancelling fragments but often had one or both ends terminating at a cancellation site. Their high numbers appear to reflect the much greater flux on the quiet sun. From their characteristics, evolution, and relationship to photospheric magnetic flux, it was concluded that the structures described are small-scale eruptive filaments and are a subset of all filaments.

Hermans, Linda M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Dynamic-Chemical Coupling of the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere Region

The importance of the interaction of chemistry and dynamics in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere for chemical species like ozone is investigated using two chemistry-climate models. Species emitted in the upper troposphere, like NOx (=NO+NO2) by lightning or aircraft, have the chance to be transported into the lowermost stratosphere. Trajectory calculations suggest that the main transport pathway runs via the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, across the tropical tropopause and then to higher latitudes, i.e. into the lowermost stratosphere. Longer lifetimes of NOx in the lower stratosphere yield an accumulation of NO. there, which feeds back on upper troposphere chemistry. This effect has been estimated for lightning NO. emissions and reveals a contribution of at least 25% to 40% to the total northern hemisphere mid-latitude lightning increase of either NOx and ozone.

Grewe, Volker↗
NASA NTRS2000

Reliability of Space-Shuttle Pressure Vessels with Random Batch Effects

In this article we revisit the problem of estimating the joint reliability against failure by stress rupture of a group of fiber-wrapped pressure vessels used on Space-Shuttle missions. The available test data were obtained from an experiment conducted at the U.S. Department of Energy Lawrence Livermore Laboratory (LLL) in which scaled-down vessels were subjected to life testing at four accelerated levels of pressure. We estimate the reliability assuming that both the Shuttle and LLL vessels were chosen at random in a two-stage process from an infinite population with spools of fiber as the primary sampling unit. Two main objectives of this work are: (1) to obtain practical estimates of reliability taking into account random spool effects and (2) to obtain a realistic assessment of estimation accuracy under the random model. Here, reliability is calculated in terms of a 'system' of 22 fiber-wrapped pressure vessels, taking into account typical pressures and exposure times experienced by Shuttle vessels. Comparisons are made with previous studies. The main conclusion of this study is that, although point estimates of reliability are still in the 'comfort zone,' it is advisable to plan for replacement of the pressure vessels well before the expected Lifetime of 100 missions per Shuttle Orbiter. Under a random-spool model, there is simply not enough information in the LLL data to provide reasonable assurance that such replacement would not be necessary.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Lifetime predictions for the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) and San Marco spacecraft

Lifetime prediction techniques developed by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) are described. These techniques were developed to predict the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft orbit, which is decaying due to atmospheric drag, with reentry predicted to occur before the end of 1989. Lifetime predictions were also performed for the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), which was deployed on the 1984 SMM repair mission and is scheduled for retrieval on another Space Transportation System (STS) mission later this year. Concepts used in the lifetime predictions were tested on the San Marco spacecraft, which reentered the Earth's atmosphere on December 6, 1988. Ephemerides predicting the orbit evolution of the San Marco spacecraft until reentry were generated over the final 90 days of the mission when the altitude was less than 380 kilometers. The errors in the predicted ephemerides are due to errors in the prediction of atmospheric density variations over the lifetime of the satellite. To model the time dependence of the atmospheric densities, predictions of the solar flux at the 10.7-centimeter wavelength were used in conjunction with Harris-Priester (HP) atmospheric density tables. Orbital state vectors, together with the spacecraft mass and area, are used as input to the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS). Propagations proceed in monthly segments, with the nominal atmospheric drag model scaled for each month according to the predicted monthly average value of F10.7. Calibration propagations are performed over a period of known orbital decay to obtain the effective ballistic coefficient. Progagations using plus or minus 2 sigma solar flux predictions are also generated to estimate the despersion in expected reentry dates. Definitive orbits are compared with these predictions as time expases. As updated vectors are received, these are also propagated to reentryto continually update the lifetime predictions.

Smith, E. A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Three-body capture, ejection, and the demographics of bound objects in binary systems

ABSTRACT We study the capture of light objects of arbitrary velocity by binary systems. Extending results for the capture of comets in the Solar system, we develop a simple geometric characterization of the capture cross-section, leading directly to the distribution of orbital parameters of captured objects. We use the same framework to study the lifetimes of these bound orbits prior to ejection, and find that a simplified version of the Öpik–Arnold approach readily yields a closed-form estimate for the ejection rate that agrees well with numerical experiments. Without any detailed-balance assumptions, our results make manifest the characteristics of close encounters leading to capture and ejection. As an application of our results, we demonstrate the estimation of the equilibrium population of captured dark matter particles in a binary system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1979

Solar-induced variations of environment affecting manned space flight and spacecraft operations

Estimates of short and long term solar activity are required for calculating variations in the environment with regard to spacecraft charging, radiation effects, and orbital lifetime. Correlations appear to exist between the time of solar activity and the time of operational anomalies due to electrical discharges when the dielectric surfaces of geosynchronous spacecraft are charged by interaction with the ambient plasma to levels above breakdown voltage. An ability to predict the solar induced variation variability of the plasmas could permit refinement of design criteria. The influence of the radiation on spacecraft materials, systems, and manned operations is summarized. Solar radition effects on the orbital altitude atmospheric density environment and spacecraft lifetimes are also considered.

Johnson, W. G.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Electromagnetic scattering lifetimes for dust in Jupiter's ring

The lifetime of the charged, micron-sized dust particles found to lie in a ring at 1.8 Jupiter radii from Jupiter against electromagnetic scattering is estimated. Interactions of the particles with the Jovian magnetic field dipole are found to spread particle orbits out to a much greater extent than observed for particle charges greater than -10 V, and to result in slightly eccentric, open orbits for the dust particles, with eccentricities dependent on particle size. In addition, fluctuations within the magnetic field are found to lead to significant changes in the eccentricity and inclination of the ring particle orbits. It is concluded that Jovian ring particles, if charged to -10 V as is consistent with Voyager data, will be strongly perturbed and scattered on a short time scale (100 yr), so the ring must be constantly replenished or it is a temporary phenomenon. Finally, the dust cloud observed to extend above, below, and beyond the Jupiter ring is attributed to the electromagnetic scattering of particles smaller than the ring particles.

Consolmagno, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Velocity distributions among colliding asteroids

The probability distribution for impact velocities between two given asteroids is wide, non-Gaussian, and often contains spikes according to our new method of analysis in which each possible orbital geometry for collision is weighted according to its probability. An average value would give a good representation only if the distribution were smooth and narrow. Therefore, the complete velocity distribution we obtain for various asteroid populations differs significantly from published histograms of average velocities. For all pairs among the 682 asteroids in the main-belt with D greater than 50 km, we find that our computed velocity distribution is much wider than previously computed histograms of average velocities. In this case, the most probable impact velocity is approximately 4.4 km/sec, compared with the mean impact velocity of 5.3 km/sec. For cases of a single asteroid (e.g., Gaspra or Ida) relative to an impacting population, the distribution we find yields lower velocities than previously reported by others. The width of these velocity distributions implies that mean impact velocities must be used with caution when calculating asteroid collisional lifetimes or crater-size distributions. Since the most probable impact velocities are lower than the mean, disruption events may occur less frequently than previously estimated. However, this disruption rate may be balanced somewhat by an apparent increase in the frequency of high-velocity impacts between asteroids. These results have implications for issues such as asteroidal disruption rates, the amount/type of impact ejecta available for meteoritical delivery to the Earth, and the geology and evolution of specific asteroids like Gaspra.

Bottke, William F., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2024

EGS Reservoir Modeling for Developing Geothermal District Heating at Cornell University: Preprint

Cornell University is pursuing development of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) for providing heating to its main campus in Upstate New York. A ~10,000 ft (~3 km) deep vertical observation well ("CUBO") was drilled in 2022 to characterize the subsurface using wellbore logging, borehole imaging, fluid sampling, mini-frac tests, coring and drill cutting analysis. Down-hole temperatures measured at 3 km depth are about 80 degrees C, sufficiently high for direct-use heating. The well drilled through generally low porosity and low permeability Paleozoic sedimentary formations and into metamorphic basement rock, encountered at about 9,400 ft depth. Leveraging subsurface data obtained through CUBO, we investigated technical feasibility and design requirements of a doublet well system with horizontal laterals connected to a fracture network created through hydraulic fracturing. The EGS reservoir is sized to provide a nominal heat output in the range 5 to 10 MWth of continuous heating over a 15 year-lifetime with limited thermal drawdown. We applied the Gringarten Multiple parallel fracture model, the Cornell Discrete Fracture Simulator FOXFEM and the commercial simulator ResFrac to estimate required heat transfer area and design a potential hydraulic stimulation treatment. Reservoir simulations indicate that, depending on fluid flow rate and injection temperature, 2 to 3 km2 of effective fracture heat transfer area is required to supply the target heat output of 5 to 10 MWth over 15 years.

district heating↗
DOE OSTI2025

EGS Reservoir Modeling for Developing Geothermal District Heating at Cornell University

Cornell University is pursuing development of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) for providing heating to its main campus in Upstate New York. A ~10,000 ft (~3 km) deep vertical observation well ('CUBO') was drilled in 2022 to characterize the subsurface using wellbore logging, borehole imaging, fluid sampling, mini-frac tests, coring and drill cutting analysis. Down-hole temperatures measured at 3 km depth are about 80 degrees C, sufficiently high for direct-use heating. The well drilled through generally low porosity and low permeability Paleozoic sedimentary formations and into metamorphic basement rock, encountered at about 9,400 ft depth. Leveraging subsurface data obtained through CUBO, we investigated technical feasibility and design requirements of a doublet well system with horizontal laterals connected to a fracture network created through hydraulic fracturing. The EGS reservoir is sized to provide a nominal heat output in the range 5 to 10 MWth of continuous heating over a 15 year-lifetime with limited thermal drawdown. We applied the Gringarten Multiple parallel fracture model, the Cornell Discrete Fracture Simulator FOXFEM and the commercial simulator ResFrac to estimate required heat transfer area and design a potential hydraulic stimulation treatment. Reservoir simulations indicate that, depending on fluid flow rate and injection temperature, 2 to 3 km2 of effective fracture heat transfer area is required to supply the target heat output of 5 to 10 MWth over 15 years.

district heating↗
NASA NTRS1973

On Lidar Sounding of the Atmosphere to Estimate Static and Dynamic Characteristics of Aerosol Inhomogeneities

1. A possible application of intensity fluctuations of a pulse light signal reflected by atmospheric aerosols is analyzed by the correlation method to evaluate static (medium sizes, shape) and dynamic (speed and direction of movement, lifetime) characteristics of aerosol inhomogeneities. The aerosol inhomogeneities are assumed to be expanded, pressed, disintegrated and originated constantly in accordance with random laws, the set of inhomogeneities as a whole traveling together with air masses and having predominant movement in wind direction. It is shown that the characteristics of aerosol inhomogeneities considered can be expressed by the coefficients of the correlation function expansion of the reflected signal fluctuation intensity in Tailor series. 2/ Correlation systems for evaluating static and dynamic characteristics of driving objects can be divided into two types according to the kind and quantity of used information: the systems with coordinates of the information removal "points" to be fixed in space, and the systems with a parallel simultaneous information removal at discrete moments of time. The systems for determination of wind direction considered in are the examples of the first type system. However, the operating information removal for two points is insufficient to estimate completely static and dynamic characteristics of inhomogenities, their quantity ought to be increased up to three of them for two-dimensional problem and up to four of them for three-dimensional problem as it is usually done in the ionospheric studies. The second type systems are used for the investigation of a medium shape and speed of the clouds according to photographs made from satellites. These systems are also used for solution of navigation problems. The use of optical quantum generators with a scanning beam is seen to increase greatly the working information removal in comparison with the first type systems. Nevertheless, scanning rate is not sufficient sometimes in order· to consider a general picture of aerosol inhomogeneities to be stationary. In this connection the use of the systems of second type treatment becomes a matter of essential difficulty. 3. Aerosol inhomogeneities simulation has been carried out on the basis of the digital computer experiments with the aim of estimating static and dynamic characteristics of inhomogeneities by an optical beam in the atmosphere at different scanning procedures. The dependence of determination accuracy of these characteristics on the type of chosen laws of aerosol particle distribution in the atmosphere, the parameters of inhomogeneities geometry, their speed and the law of scanning have been obtained.

Zuev, V. E.↗