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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

A new approach to estimate fecundity rate from inter‐birth intervals

Abstract Accurate estimates of fecundity rate are key to population assessments and effectively direct conservation efforts. We present a new approach to estimate fecundity rate based on the probability of a female giving birth, conditional on a previous birth t years ago, from which an expected inter‐birth interval ( IBI ) can be estimated. We use generalized linear mixed‐effects models to account for individual and temporal variability and apply the approach to individual reproductive histories of bottlenose dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ) from the east coast of Scotland. We estimate a fecundity rate of 0.222 (95% CI = 0.218–0.253) and an expected IBI of 4.49 yr (95% CI = 3.94–4.93 yr). We use simulated data samples to show that the approach produces estimates with a minimum bias of <3%. Simulations are also used to investigate the effect of the most common data‐driven biases in the estimates of birth intervals and fecundity rate; we recommend longitudinal studies of at least 10 yr and capture probabilities of at least 0.3 when using this methodology. The approach may be modified to incorporate other parameters of interest and should be applicable to any population with comprehensive data on birth intervals.

Arso Civil, Mònica↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Sheaf Theoretical Approach to Uncertainty Quantification of Heterogeneous Geolocation Information

Integration of multiple, heterogeneous sensors is a challenging problem across a range of applications. Prominent among these are multi-target tracking, where one must combine observations from different sensor types in a meaningful and efficient way to track multiple targets. Because different sensors have differing error models, we seek a theoretically justified quantification of the agreement among ensembles of sensors, both overall for a sensor collection, and also at a fine-grained level specifying pairwise and multi-way interactions among sensors. We demonstrate that the theory of mathematical sheaves provides a unified answer to this need, supporting both quantitative and qualitative data. Furthermore, the theory provides algorithms to globalize data across the network of deployed sensors, and to diagnose issues when the data do not globalize cleanly. We demonstrate and illustrate the utility of sheaf-based tracking models based on experimental data of a wild population of black bears in Asheville, North Carolina. A measurement model involving four sensors deployed among the bears and the team of scientists charged with tracking their location is deployed. This provides a sheaf-based integration model which is small enough to fully interpret, but of sufficient complexity to demonstrate the sheaf’s ability to recover a holistic picture of the locations and behaviors of both individual bears and the bear-human tracking system. A statistical approach was developed in parallel for comparison, a dynamic linear model which was estimated using a Kalman filter. This approach also recovered bear and human locations and sensor accuracies. When the observations are normalized into a common coordinate system, the structure of the dynamic linear observation model recapitulates the structure of the sheaf model, demonstrating the canonicity of the sheaf-based approach. However, when the observations are not so normalized, the sheaf model still remains valid.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1991

Predictive control and estimation - State space approach

A modified output prediction procedure and a new controller design based on the predictive control law are presented. A new predictive estimator enhances system performance. The predictive controller was designed and applied to the tracking control of the NASA/JPL 70-m antenna. Simulation results show significant improvement in tracking performance over the linear quadratic controller and estimator presently in use.

Gawronski, W.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Real-Time Parameter Estimation in the Frequency Domain

A method for real-time estimation of parameters in a linear dynamic state space model was developed and studied. The application is aircraft dynamic model parameter estimation from measured data in flight for indirect adaptive or reconfigurable control. Equation error in the frequency domain was used with a recursive Fourier transform for the real-time data analysis. Linear and nonlinear simulation examples and flight test data from the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle HARV) were used to demonstrate that the technique produces accurate model parameter estimates with appropriate error bounds. Parameter estimates converged in less than 1 cycle of the dominant dynamic mode natural frequencies, using control surface inputs measured in flight during ordinary piloted maneuvers. The real-time parameter estimation method has low computational requirements, and could be implemented aboard an aircraft in real time.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

The Determination of the Large-Scale Circulation of the Pacific Ocean from Satellite Altimetry using Model Green's Functions

A Green's function method for obtaining an estimate of the ocean circulation using both a general circulation model and altimetric data is demonstrated. The fundamental assumption is that the model is so accurate that the differences between the observations and the model-estimated fields obey a linear dynamics. In the present case, the calculations are demonstrated for model/data differences occurring on very a large scale, where the linearization hypothesis appears to be a good one. A semi-automatic linearization of the Bryan/Cox general circulation model is effected by calculating the model response to a series of isolated (in both space and time) geostrophically balanced vortices. These resulting impulse responses or 'Green's functions' then provide the kernels for a linear inverse problem. The method is first demonstrated with a set of 'twin experiments' and then with real data spanning the entire model domain and a year of TOPEX/POSEIDON observations. Our present focus is on the estimate of the time-mean and annual cycle of the model. Residuals of the inversion/assimilation are largest in the western tropical Pacific, and are believed to reflect primarily geoid error. Vertical resolution diminishes with depth with 1 year of data. The model mean is modified such that the subtropical gyre is weakened by about 1 cm/s and the center of the gyre shifted southward by about 10 deg. Corrections to the flow field at the annual cycle suggest that the dynamical response is weak except in the tropics, where the estimated seasonal cycle of the low-latitude current system is of the order of 2 cm/s. The underestimation of observed fluctuations can be related to the inversion on the coarse spatial grid, which does not permit full resolution of the tropical physics. The methodology is easily extended to higher resolution, to use of spatially correlated errors, and to other data types.

Stammer, Detlef↗
NASA NTRS1997

A Multi-Resolution Nonlinear Mapping Technique for Design and Analysis Application

This report describes a nonlinear mapping technique where the unknown static or dynamic system is approximated by a sum of dimensionally increasing functions (one-dimensional curves, two-dimensional surfaces, etc.). These lower dimensional functions are synthesized from a set of multi-resolution basis functions, where the resolutions specify the level of details at which the nonlinear system is approximated. The basis functions also cause the parameter estimation step to become linear. This feature is taken advantage of to derive a systematic procedure to determine and eliminate basis functions that are less significant for the particular system under identification. The number of unknown parameters that must be estimated is thus reduced and compact models obtained. The lower dimensional functions (identified curves and surfaces) permit a kind of "visualization" into the complexity of the nonlinearity itself.

Phan, Minh Q.↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Multi-Resolution Nonlinear Mapping Technique for Design and Analysis Applications

This report describes a nonlinear mapping technique where the unknown static or dynamic system is approximated by a sum of dimensionally increasing functions (one-dimensional curves, two-dimensional surfaces, etc.). These lower dimensional functions are synthesized from a set of multi-resolution basis functions, where the resolutions specify the level of details at which the nonlinear system is approximated. The basis functions also cause the parameter estimation step to become linear. This feature is taken advantage of to derive a systematic procedure to determine and eliminate basis functions that are less significant for the particular system under identification. The number of unknown parameters that must be estimated is thus reduced and compact models obtained. The lower dimensional functions (identified curves and surfaces) permit a kind of "visualization" into the complexity of the nonlinearity itself.

Phan, Minh Q.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Real-Time Parameter Estimation in the Frequency Domain

A method for real-time estimation of parameters in a linear dynamic state-space model was developed and studied. The application is aircraft dynamic model parameter estimation from measured data in flight. Equation error in the frequency domain was used with a recursive Fourier transform for the real-time data analysis. Linear and nonlinear simulation examples and flight test data from the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle were used to demonstrate that the technique produces accurate model parameter estimates with appropriate error bounds. Parameter estimates converged in less than one cycle of the dominant dynamic mode, using no a priori information, with control surface inputs measured in flight during ordinary piloted maneuvers. The real-time parameter estimation method has low computational requirements and could be implemented

Morelli, Eugene A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

An ecologically-constrained deep learning model for tropical leaf phenology monitoring using PlanetScope satellites

In tropical forests, leaf phenology signals leaf-on/off status and exhibits considerable variability across scales from a single tree-crown to the entire forest ecosystem. Such phenology signals importantly regulate large-scale biogeochemical cycles and regional climate. PlanetScope CubeSats data with a 3-m resolution and near-daily global coverage provide an unprecedented opportunity to monitor both fine- and ecosystem-scale phenology variability along large environmental gradients. However, a scalable method that accurately characterizes leaf phenology from PlanetScope with biophysically meaningful metrics remains lacking. Here we developed an index-guided, ecologically constrained autoencoder (IG-ECAE) method to automatically derive a deciduousness metric (i.e. percentage of tree canopies with leaf-off status within an image pixel) from PlanetScope. The IG-ECAE first estimated the reflectance spectra of leafy/leafless canopies based on their spectral indices characteristics, then used the derived reflectance spectra to guide an autoencoder deep learning method with additional ecological constraints to refine the reflectance spectra, and finally used linear spectral unmixing to estimate the relative abundance of leafless canopies (or deciduousness) per PlanetScope image pixel. We tested the IG-ECAE method at 16 tropical forest sites spanning multiple continents and a large precipitation gradient (1470-2819 mm year -1 ). Among these sites, we evaluated the PlanetScope-derived deciduousness with corresponding measures derived from WorldView-2 (n=9 sites) and local phenocams (n=9 sites). Our results show that PlanetScope-derived deciduousness agrees: 1) with that derived from WorldView-2 at the patch level (90m×90m) with r 2 =0.89 across all sites; and 2) with that derived from phenocams to quantify ecosystem-scale seasonality with r 2 ranging from 0.62-0.96. These results demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of IG-ECAE in characterizing the wide variability in deciduousness across scales from pixels to forest ecosystems, and from a single date to the full annual cycle, indicating the potential for using high-resolution satellites to track the large-scale phenological patterns and response of tropical forests to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

Adaptive Filtering Using Recurrent Neural Networks

A method for adaptive (or, optionally, nonadaptive) filtering has been developed for estimating the states of complex process systems (e.g., chemical plants, factories, or manufacturing processes at some level of abstraction) from time series of measurements of system inputs and outputs. The method is based partly on the fundamental principles of the Kalman filter and partly on the use of recurrent neural networks. The standard Kalman filter involves an assumption of linearity of the mathematical model used to describe a process system. The extended Kalman filter accommodates a nonlinear process model but still requires linearization about the state estimate. Both the standard and extended Kalman filters involve the often unrealistic assumption that process and measurement noise are zero-mean, Gaussian, and white. In contrast, the present method does not involve any assumptions of linearity of process models or of the nature of process noise; on the contrary, few (if any) assumptions are made about process models, noise models, or the parameters of such models. In this regard, the method can be characterized as one of nonlinear, nonparametric filtering. The method exploits the unique ability of neural networks to approximate nonlinear functions. In a given case, the process model is limited mainly by limitations of the approximation ability of the neural networks chosen for that case. Moreover, despite the lack of assumptions regarding process noise, the method yields minimum- variance filters. In that they do not require statistical models of noise, the neural- network-based state filters of this method are comparable to conventional nonlinear least-squares estimators.

Parlos, Alexander G.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Experimental and theoretical aerodynamic characteristics of two hypersonic cruise aircraft concepts at Mach numbers of 2.96, 3.96, and 4.63

The longitudinal and lateral directional aerodynamic characteristics for two Mach 5 cruise aircraft concepts were determined for test Mach numbers of 2.96, 3.96, and 4.63. Estimates from hypersonic impact theory and first order supersonic linearized theory were compared with data to indicate the usefulness of these methods. The method which applied tangent cone empirical theory to the body and tangent wedge theory to the wings and to the horizontal and vertical tails provided the best estimates. The tangent cone empirical theory applied to all components showed poor agreement with data, and the linear theory estimates were accurate only for lift coefficient and drag coefficient at low angles of attack.

Pittman, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Controlling Flexible Manipulators, an Experimental Investigation

Lightweight, slender manipulators offer faster response and/or greater workspace range for the same size actuators than tradional manipulators. Lightweight construction of manipulator links results in increased structural flexibility. The increase flexibility must be considered in the design of control systems to properly account for the dynamic flexible vibrations and static deflections. Real time control of the flexible manipulator vibrations are experimentally investigated. Models intended for real-time control of distributed parameter system such as flexible manipulators rely on model approximation schemes. An linear model based on the application of Lagrangian dynamics to a rigid body mode and a series of separable flexible modes is examined with respect to model order requirements, and modal candidate selection. Balanced realizations are applied to the linear flexible model to obtain an estimate of appropriate order for a selected model. Describing the flexible deflections as a linear combination of modes results in measurements of beam state, which yield information about several modes. To realize the potential of linear systems theory, knowledge of each state must be available. State estimation is also accomplished by implementation of a Kalman Filter. State feedback control laws are implemented based upon linear quadratic regulator design.

Hastings, Gordon Greene↗
NASA NTRS1991

Predictive control and estimation algorithms for the NASA/JPL 70-meter antennas

A modified output prediction procedure and a new controller design is presented based on the predictive control law. Also, a new predictive estimator is developed to complement the controller and to enhance system performance. The predictive controller is designed and applied to the tracking control of the Deep Space Network 70 m antennas. Simulation results show significant improvement in tracking performance over the linear quadratic controller and estimator presently in use.

Gawronski, W.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Experimental Investigation of Sweeping Jet Film Cooling in a Transonic Turbine Cascade

Abstract The sweeping jet (SJ) film cooling hole has shown promising cooling performance compared to the standard shaped hole in low-speed conditions. The present work demonstrates the first attempt of SJ film cooling at an engine relevant Mach number. An experimental investigation was conducted to study the SJ film cooling on a nozzle guide vane suction surface. A well-established additive manufacturing technique commonly known as stereolithography (SLA) was utilized to design a transonic, engine representative vane geometry in which a row of SJ holes was used on the vane suction surface. Experiments were performed in a linear transonic cascade at an exit Mach number of 0.8 and blowing ratios of BR = 0.25–2.23. The measurement of heat transfer was conducted with the transient IR method, and the convective heat transfer coefficient (HTC) and adiabatic film cooling effectiveness were estimated using a dual linear regression technique (DLRT). Aerodynamic loss measurements were also performed with a total pressure Kiel probe at 0.25Cax downstream of the exit plane of the vane cascade. Experiments were also conducted for a baseline-shaped hole (777-hole) for a direct comparison. Results showed that the SJ hole has a wider coolant spreading in the lateral direction near the hole exit due to its sweeping motion that improves the overall cooling performance particularly at high blowing ratios (BR > 1). Aerodynamic loss measurement suggested that the SJ hole has a comparable total pressure loss to the 777-shaped hole.

Engineering↗
NASA NTRS2011

Multi-Axis Identifiability Using Single-Surface Parameter Estimation Maneuvers on the X-48B Blended Wing Body

The problem of parameter estimation on hybrid-wing-body type aircraft is complicated by the fact that many design candidates for such aircraft involve a large number of aero- dynamic control effectors that act in coplanar motion. This fact adds to the complexity already present in the parameter estimation problem for any aircraft with a closed-loop control system. Decorrelation of system inputs must be performed in order to ascertain individual surface derivatives with any sort of mathematical confidence. Non-standard control surface configurations, such as clamshell surfaces and drag-rudder modes, further complicate the modeling task. In this paper, asymmetric, single-surface maneuvers are used to excite multiple axes of aircraft motion simultaneously. Time history reconstructions of the moment coefficients computed by the solved regression models are then compared to each other in order to assess relative model accuracy. The reduced flight-test time required for inner surface parameter estimation using multi-axis methods was found to come at the cost of slightly reduced accuracy and statistical confidence for linear regression methods. Since the multi-axis maneuvers captured parameter estimates similar to both longitudinal and lateral-directional maneuvers combined, the number of test points required for the inner, aileron-like surfaces could in theory have been reduced by 50%. While trends were similar, however, individual parameters as estimated by a multi-axis model were typically different by an average absolute difference of roughly 15-20%, with decreased statistical significance, than those estimated by a single-axis model. The multi-axis model exhibited an increase in overall fit error of roughly 1-5% for the linear regression estimates with respect to the single-axis model, when applied to flight data designed for each, respectively.

Ratnayake, Nalin A.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Implicit filtered P{sub N} for high-energy density thermal radiation transport using discontinuous Galerkin finite elements

In this work, we provide a fully-implicit implementation of the time-dependent, filtered spherical harmonics (FP{sub N}) equations for non-linear, thermal radiative transfer. We investigate local filtering strategies and analyze the effect of the filter on the conditioning of the system, showing in particular that the filter improves the convergence properties of the iterative solver. We also investigate numerically the rigorous error estimates derived in the linear setting, to determine whether they hold also for the non-linear case. Finally, we simulate a standard test problem on an unstructured mesh and make comparisons with implicit Monte Carlo (IMC) calculations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2017

Groundwater recharge estimation in arid hardrock-alluvium aquifers using combined water-table fluctuation and groundwater balance approaches

This article proposes an approach to estimate groundwater recharge using an optimization-based water-table fluctuation method combined with a groundwater balance model in an arid hardrock-alluvium region, located at the Oman–United Arab Emirates border. Here, we introduce an “effective hardrock thickness” term to identify the percentage of the considered hardrock thickness in which effective groundwater flow takes place. The proposed method is based upon a Thiessen polygon zoning approach. The method includes subpolygons to represent specific geologic units and to enhance the confidence of the estimated groundwater recharge. Two linear and 1 nonlinear submodels were developed to evaluate the model components for the calibration (October 1996 to September 2008) and validation (October 2008 to September 2013) periods. Long-term annual groundwater recharge from rainfall and return flow over the model domain are estimated as 24.62 and 5.71 Mm 3 , respectively, while the effective groundwater flow circulation is found to occur in the upper 7% of the known hardrock thickness (42 m), confirming conclusions of previous field studies. Considering a total difference in groundwater levels between eastern and western points of the study area of the order of 220 m and a 12-year monthly calibration period, a weighted root mean squared error in predicted groundwater elevation of 2.75 m is considered quite reasonable for the study area characterized by remarkable geological and hydrogeological diversity. The proposed approach provides an efficient and robust method to estimate groundwater recharge in regions with a complex geological setting in which interaction between fractured and porous media cannot be easily assessed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Pros, Cons, and Alternatives to Weight Based Cost Estimating

Many cost estimating tools use weight as a major parameter in projecting the cost. This is often combined with modifying factors such as complexity, technical maturity of design, environment of operation, etc. to increase the fidelity of the estimate. For a set of conceptual designs, all meeting the same requirements, increased weight can be a major driver in increased cost. However, once a design is fixed, increased weight generally decreases cost, while decreased weight generally increases cost - and the relationship is not linear. Alternative approaches to estimating cost without using weight (except perhaps for materials costs) have been attempted to try to produce a tool usable throughout the design process - from concept studies through development. This paper will address the pros and cons of using weight based models for cost estimating, using liquid rocket engines as the example. It will then examine approaches that minimize the imp~ct of weight based cost estimating. The Rocket Engine- Cost Model (RECM) is an attribute based model developed internally by Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne for NASA. RECM will be presented primarily to show a successful method to use design and programmatic parameters instead of weight to estimate both design and development costs and production costs. An operations model developed by KSC, the Launch and Landing Effects Ground Operations model (LLEGO), will also be discussed.

Joyner, Claude R.↗