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Mapping Aerosol Lidar Ratios Over Ocean using MODIS AOD Constrained Retrievals and GOCART Model Simulations

After 17 years, the NASA Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission ceased science operations in August 2023. For the final CALIPSO data products release (Version 5), the CALIPSO project seeks to improve the accuracy of its aerosol extinction by advancing knowledge of aerosol lidar ratios (i.e., extinction-to-backscatter ratios; LRs) for various aerosol types. The current algorithm assigns one LR value globally for each of the seven tropospheric aerosol types. The CALIPSO team aims to improve the retrieval algorithm through the development of regional and seasonal LR climatologies for the same aerosol types. In this study, aerosol LRs are inferred through Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) backscatter profiles constrained by collocated aerosol optical depth (AOD) from Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data over oceans during daytime. This analysis is subsampled for those profiles that are cloud-free and contain only one CALIOP-classified aerosol type. The CALIOP profiles are then collocated with aerosol volume fractions obtained through Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model simulations. This presentation will reveal findings that the 12-year (June 2006-August 2018) mean spatial distributions of inferred aerosol LRs for CALIOP-classified marine and dusty marine aerosols correspond inversely with patterns of GOCART sea salt volume fraction (SSVF). For example, smaller SSVFs (< 65%) and larger LRs (> 55 sr), are found near land masses (Fig. 1). This indicates the influence of advected anthropogenic aerosols (e.g., pollution and biomass burning smoke). In the remote oceans (i.e., regions likely less impacted by non-sea salt aerosols), the SSVFs are larger (> 95%) and the LRs are smaller (< 25 sr) (Fig. 1). A polynomial fit of the MODIS AOD constrained LRs to the corresponding GOCART SSVFs (intersect values of ~58 sr for SSVF of 0% and ~21 sr for SSVF of 100%) is further used to produce model-assisted climatological LR maps on seasonal scales. Additionally, we will show results of a LR validation analysis for which we compare the revised CALIPSO AODs obtained by applying the seasonal/regional constrained LRs against CALIPSO Version 4.51 Ocean Derived Column Optical Depth (ODCOD). While the majority of the presentation will focus on LRs for CALIOP-classified marine and dusty marine aerosols, an overview of LR results will show preliminary results for other aerosol types over ocean, such as dust and elevated smoke. The technique demon-strated in this study highlights the benefits not only to the final planned CALIPSO data release in 2025, but similar methods can be applied to future spaceborne elastic backscatter lidars with collocated passive sensors (e.g., such as those associated with NASA’s proposed Atmosphere Observing System).

Travis D Toth↗
NASA NTRS2001

ESTAR Measurements During the Southern Great Plains Experiment (SGP99)

During the Southern Great Plains experiment, the synthetic aperture radiometer, ESTAR, mapped L-band brightness temperature over a swath about 50 km wide and about 300 km long extending west from Oklahoma City to El Reno and north from the Little Washita River watershed to the Kansas border. ESTAR flew on the NASA P-3B Orion aircraft at an altitude of 7.6 km and maps were made on 7 days between July 8-20, 1999. The brightness temperature maps reflect the patterns of soil moisture expected from rainfall and are consistent with values of soil moisture observed at the research sites within the SGP99 study area and with previous measurements in this area. The data add to the resources for hydrologic modeling in this area and are further validation of the technology represented by ESTAR as a potential path to a future mission to map soil moisture globally from space.

LeVine, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Development and Validation of The SMAP Enhanced Passive Soil Moisture Product

Since the beginning of its routine science operation in March 2015, the NASA SMAP observatory has been returning interference-mitigated brightness temperature observations at L-band (1.41 GHz) frequency from space. The resulting data enable frequent global mapping of soil moisture with a retrieval uncertainty below 0.040 cu m/cu m at a 36 km spatial scale. This paper describes the development and validation of an enhanced version of the current standard soil moisture product. Compared with the standard product that is posted on a 36 km grid, the new enhanced product is posted on a 9 km grid. Derived from the same time-ordered brightness temperature observations that feed the current standard passive soil moisture product, the enhanced passive soil moisture product leverages on the Backus-Gilbert optimal interpolation technique that more fully utilizes the additional information from the original radiometer observations to achieve global mapping of soil moisture with enhanced clarity. The resulting enhanced soil moisture product was assessed using long-term in situ soil moisture observations from core validation sites located in diverse biomes and was found to exhibit an average retrieval uncertainty below 0.040 cu m/cu m. As of December 2016, the enhanced soil moisture product has been made available to the public from the NASA Distributed Active Archive Center at the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

SMAP Enhanced↗
NASA NTRS2024

Kentucky Disasters: Multi-Hazard Approach to Mapping Flood Susceptibility and Vulnerability in Kentucky

Flooding is the most common and costly natural disaster in Kentucky, with major flood events in 2022 and 2023 highlighting the need for flood risk assessment. In partnership with the National Weather Service Jackson and Paducah Forecast Offices and the Kentucky Climate Center, we mapped flood risk in Kentucky using a multi-hazard approach that considered two dimensions of risk: flood susceptibility based on a weighted combination of seven physical factors and flood vulnerability based on 13 socioeconomic and infrastructure factors. We additionally analyzed NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) observations of surface soil moisture to explore the utility of SMAP observations for future analysis of flood risk. By analyzing flood susceptibility, we found that with equal rainfall, western Kentucky generally displays a higher propensity to flood than eastern Kentucky. In contrast, our flood vulnerability analysis indicated that more vulnerable areas were generally concentrated in the eastern part of the state. Through a combined perspective, our flood risk analysis identified much of the state as having moderate degrees of flood susceptibility and vulnerability. Our parallel analysis of antecedent soil moisture found that SMAP soil moisture levels were variable in the months leading up to each flood event but were drier than normal in the month prior to the 2023 event, as shown by negative soil moisture anomalies. These results were limited by challenges with weighting input parameters and a lack of validation but overall demonstrate the feasibility of using GIS and Earth observations for mapping flood risk and soil moisture.

analytic hierarchy process↗
DOE OSTI2019

The southern stellar stream spectroscopic survey (S 5 ): Overview, target selection, data reduction, validation, and early science

Herein, we introduce the southern stellar stream spectroscopy survey (S 5 ), an on-going program to map the kinematics and chemistry of stellar streams in the southern hemisphere. The initial focus of S 5 has been spectroscopic observations of recently identified streams within the footprint of the dark energy survey (DES), with the eventual goal of surveying streams across the entire southern sky. Stellar streams are composed of material that has been tidally striped from dwarf galaxies and globular clusters and hence are excellent dynamical probes of the gravitational potential of the Milky Way, as well as providing a detailed snapshot of its accretion history. Observing with the 3.9 m Anglo-Australian Telescope’s 2-degree-Field fibre positioner and AAOmega spectrograph, and combining the precise photometry of DES DR1 with the superb proper motions from Gaia DR2, allows us to conduct an efficient spectroscopic survey to map these stellar streams. So far S 5 has mapped nine DES streams and three streams outside of DES; the former are the first spectroscopic observations of these recently discovered streams. In addition to the stream survey, we use spare fibres to undertake a Milky Way halo survey and a low-redshift galaxy survey. This paper presents an overview of the S 5 program, describing the scientific motivation for the survey, target selection, observation strategy, data reduction, and survey validation. Lastly, we describe early science results on stellar streams and Milky Way halo stars drawn from the survey. Updates on S 5 , including future public data releases, can be found at http://s5collab.github.io.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Recent Advances in Analytical Electron Microscopy for Irradiated Materials

Analytical electron microscopy (AEM) in the scanning transmission electron microscope (STEM) has long been a staple of post-irradiation examination (PIE) and materials development campaigns. Recently, new advances in both STEM hardware and post-processing data-analysis software, along with ancillary advances such as in focused ion beam (FIB) sample preparation, has led to exciting advances in the quantity and quality of data that can be obtained. This talk will summarize recent experiments performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), especially work on neutron-irradiated materials and fuels taking advantage of a newly-installed latest-generation AEM tool in the ORNL irradiated materials laboratories. ORNL installed a new FEI Talos F200X microscope, a 200 keV, high-brightness Schottky emission AEM system optimized for high-speed, high-efficiency X-ray mapping experiments. The F200X features the FEI 'SuperX' four-sector silicon drift detector (SDD) X-ray detector, which provides 0.9 sr solid angle of collection. By combining the high-brightness electron source, latest-generation electron optics, and fast computers and pulse processors, X-ray mapping speed is increased by a factor of 50-100 x compared to the previous-generation instruments. In addition to improvements in hardware, data mining via multivariate statistical analysis (MVSA) allows for maximum insight to the data obtained from the new hardware. MVSA data mining of the X-ray maps allows, for instance, unbiased computational identification of the phases present, and discovery of small phases or precipitates not expected by the human analyst. This talk will present examples of experiments performed using the most modern AEM tools and software. Silicon carbide is a major candidate for next-generation nuclear applications. Nano-infiltration by transient eutectic (NITE) SiC requires low sintering temperatures. X-ray mapping of the NITE structure find pockets of different oxides, such as Zr-Y-oxide, Y-Al-oxide, and yttria. MVSA data mining finds the regions where different oxides are present and indicates that Y additions preferentially wet grain boundaries, where Zr additions are preferentially concentrated at grain triple points. SiC coatings from AGR-I experiment TRISO particles were found to contain significant quantities of fission products (e.g., Pd) as well as actinides (U, Pu). MVSA data mining found complex precipitates and grain boundary films of the fission products and actinides deep (∼several microns) into the SiC layer. Advanced AEM methods, combined with MVSA data mining, makes possible both rapid and detailed PIE. Ferritic alloys, such as accident-tolerant FeCrAl grades, benefit greatly from advanced AEM examination. Neutron-irradiated FeCrAl precipitates the detrimental Cr-rich α' phase. Because the SuperX SDD system has four detectors, it is possible to obtain high X-ray count rates even on a highly tilted specimen, as might be needed to obtain STEM images of dislocation loops. Results on neutron-irradiated FeCrAl indicates that α' size and number density can be obtained by AEM, and MVSA results determine that minor elements (such as Si) has complex radiation-induced segregation behavior at grain boundaries. We have also developed and validated computer models of the AEM experiment, allowing different microstructures' X-ray map results to be simulated for different STEM instruments. This allows X-ray mapping to be more quantitative, such as by estimating what size nanoclusters in an oxide-dispersion strengthened steel would be visible or invisible in STEM. In summary, new advanced AEM technology provides a major leap forward in experiments possible in PIE of irradiated materials. (authors)

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2013

Discriminating Phytoplankton Functional Types (PFTs) in the Coastal Ocean Using the Inversion Algorithm Phydotax and Airborne Imaging Spectrometer Data

There is a need in the Biological Oceanography community to discriminate among phytoplankton groups within the bulk chlorophyll pool to understand energy flow through ecosystems, to track the fate of carbon in the ocean, and to detect and monitor-for harmful algal blooms (HABs). The ocean color community has responded to this demand with the development of phytoplankton functional type (PFT) discrimination algorithms. These PFT algorithms fall into one of three categories depending on the science application: size-based, biogeochemical function, and taxonomy. The new PFT algorithm Phytoplankton Detection with Optics (PHYDOTax) is an inversion algorithm that discriminates taxon-specific biomass to differentiate among six taxa found in the California Current System: diatoms, dinoflagellates, haptophytes, chlorophytes, cryptophytes, and cyanophytes. PHYDOTax was developed and validated in Monterey Bay, CA for the high resolution imaging spectrometer, Spectroscopic Aerial Mapping System with On-board Navigation (SAMSON - 3.5 nm resolution). PHYDOTax exploits the high spectral resolution of an imaging spectrometer and the improved spatial resolution that airborne data provides for coastal areas. The objective of this study was to apply PHYDOTax to a relatively lower resolution imaging spectrometer to test the algorithm's sensitivity to atmospheric correction, to evaluate capability with other sensors, and to determine if down-sampling spectral resolution would degrade its ability to discriminate among phytoplankton taxa. This study is a part of the larger Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI) airborne simulation campaign which is collecting Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) imagery aboard NASA's ER-2 aircraft during three seasons in each of two years over terrestrial and marine targets in California. Our aquatic component seeks to develop and test algorithms to retrieve water quality properties (e.g. HABs and river plumes) in both marine and in-land water bodies. Results presented are from the 10 April 2013 overflight of the Monterey Bay region and focus primarily on the first objective - sensitivity to atmospheric correction. On-going and future work will continue to evaluate if PHYDOTax can be applied to historical (SeaWiFS and MERIS), existing (MODIS, VIIRS, and HICO), and future (PACE, GEO-CAPE, and HyspIRI) satellite sensors. Demonstration of cross-platform continuity may aid in calibration and validation efforts of these sensors.

Biological Oceanography↗
NASA NTRS2005

Mapping Weathering and Alteration Minerals in the Comstock and Geiger Grade Areas using Visible to Thermal Infrared Airborne Remote Sensing Data

To support research into both precious metal exploration and environmental site characterization a combination of high spatial/spectral resolution airborne visible, near infrared, short wave infrared (VNIR/SWIR) and thermal infrared (TIR) image data were acquired to remotely map hydrothermal alteration minerals around the Geiger Grade and Comstock alteration regions, and map the mineral by-products of weathered mine dumps in Virginia City. Remote sensing data from the Airborne Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS), SpecTIR Corporation's airborne hyperspectral imager (HyperSpecTIR), the MODIS-ASTER airborne simulator (MASTER), and the Spatially Enhanced Broadband Array Spectrograph System (SEBASS) were acquired and processed into mineral maps based on the unique spectral signatures of image pixels. VNIR/SWIR and TIR field spectrometer data were collected for both calibration and validation of the remote data sets, and field sampling, laboratory spectral analyses and XRD analyses were made to corroborate the surface mineralogy identified by spectroscopy. The resulting mineral maps show the spatial distribution of several important alteration minerals around each study area including alunite, quartz, pyrophyllite, kaolinite, montmorillonite/muscovite, and chlorite. In the Comstock region the mineral maps show acid-sulfate alteration, widespread propylitic alteration and extensive faulting that offsets the acid-sulfate areas, in contrast to the larger, dominantly acid-sulfate alteration exposed along Geiger Grade. Also, different mineral zones within the intense acid-sulfate areas were mapped. In the Virginia City historic mining district the important weathering minerals mapped include hematite, goethite, jarosite and hydrous sulfate minerals (hexahydrite, alunogen and gypsum) located on mine dumps. Sulfate minerals indicate acidic water forming in the mine dump environment. While there is not an immediate threat to the community, there are clearly sources of acidic drainage that were identified remotely.

imaging spectroscopy↗
NASA NTRS2002

Use of IKONOS Data for Mapping Cultural Resources of Stennis Space Center, Mississippi

Cultural resource surveys are important for compliance with Federal and State law. Stennis Space Center (SSC) in Mississippi is researching, developing, and validating remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) methods for aiding cultural resource assessments on the center's own land. The suitability of IKONOS satellite imagery for georeferencing scanned historic maps is examined in this viewgraph presentation. IKONOS data can be used to map historic buildings and farmland in Gainsville, MS, and plan archaeological surveys.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Data Validation Package - July 2016 Groundwater Sampling at the Gunnison, Colorado, Disposal Site

Groundwater sampling at the Gunnison, Colorado, Disposal Site is conducted every 5 years to monitor disposal cell performance. During this event, samples were collected from eight monitoring wells as specified in the 1997 Long-Term Surveillance Plan for the Gunnison, Colorado, Disposal Site. Sampling and analyses were conducted as specified in the Sampling and Analysis Plan for US Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management Sites (LMS/PRO/S04351, continually updated, http://energy.gov/lm/downloads/sampling-and­ analysis-plan-us-department-energy-office-legacy-management-sites). Planned monitoring locations are shown in Attachment 1, Sampling and Analysis Work Order. A duplicate sample was collected from location 0723. Water levels were measured at all monitoring wells that were sampled and seven additional wells. The analytical data and associated qualifiers can be viewed in environmental database reports and are also available for viewing with dynamic mapping via the GEMS (Geospatial Environmental Mapping System) website at http://gems.lm.doe.gov/#. No issues were identified during the data validation process that require additional action or follow-up.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Three-Dimensional Dosimetric Validation of a Magnetic Resonance Guided Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy System

Purpose: To validate the dosimetric accuracy of a commercially available magnetic resonance guided intensity modulated radiation therapy (MRgIMRT) system using a hybrid approach: 3-dimensional (3D) measurements and Monte Carlo calculations. Methods and Materials: We used PRESAGE radiochromic plastic dosimeters with remote optical computed tomography readout to perform 3D high-resolution measurements, following a novel remote dosimetry protocol. We followed the intensity modulated radiation therapy commissioning recommendations of American Association of Physicists in Medicine Task Group 119, adapted to incorporate 3D data. Preliminary tests (“AP” and “3D-Bands”) were delivered to 9.5-cm usable diameter cylindrical PRESAGE dosimeters to validate the treatment planning system (TPS) for nonmodulated deliveries; assess the sensitivity, uniformity, and rotational symmetry of the PRESAGE dosimeters; and test the robustness of the remote dosimetry protocol. Following this, 4 clinical MRgIMRT plans (“MultiTarget,” “Prostate,” “Head/Neck,” and “C-Shape”) were measured using 13-cm usable diameter PRESAGE dosimeters. For all plans, 3D-γ (3% or 3 mm global, 10% threshold) passing rates were calculated and 3D-γ maps were examined. Point doses were measured with an IBA-CC01 ionization chamber for validation of absolute dose. Finally, by use of an in-house-developed, GPU-accelerated Monte Carlo algorithm (gPENELOPE), we independently calculated dose for all 6 Task Group 119 plans and compared against the TPS. Results: For PRESAGE measurements, 3D-γ analysis yielded passing rates of 98.7%, 99.2%, 98.5%, 98.0%, 99.2%, and 90.7% for AP, 3D-Bands, MultiTarget, Prostate, Head/Neck, and C-Shape, respectively. Ion chamber measurements were within an average of 0.5% (±1.1%) from the TPS dose. Monte Carlo calculations demonstrated good agreement with the TPS, with a mean 3D-γ passing rate of 98.5% ± 1.9% using a stricter 2%/2-mm criterion. Conclusions: We have validated the dosimetric accuracy of a commercial MRgIMRT system using high-resolution 3D techniques. We have demonstrated for the first time that hybrid 3D remote dosimetry is a comprehensive and feasible approach to commissioning MRgIMRT. This may provide better sensitivity in error detection compared with standard 2-dimensional measurements and could be used when implementing complex new magnetic resonance guided radiation therapy technologies.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Planck 2015 results: VI. LFI mapmaking

This article describes the mapmaking procedure applied to Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) data. The mapmaking step takes as input the calibrated timelines and pointing information. The main products are sky maps of I, Q, and U Stokes components. For the first time, we present polarization maps at LFI frequencies. The mapmaking algorithm is based on a destriping technique, which is enhanced with a noise prior. The Galactic region is masked to reduce errors arising from bandpass mismatch and high signal gradients. We apply horn-uniform radiometer weights to reduce the effects of beam-shape mismatch. The algorithm is the same as used for the 2013 release, apart from small changes in parameter settings. We validate the procedure through simulations. Special emphasis is put on the control of systematics, which is particularly important for accurate polarization analysis. We also produce low-resolution versions of the maps and corresponding noise covariance matrices. These serve as input in later analysis steps and parameter estimation. The noise covariance matrices are validated through noise Monte Carlo simulations. The residual noise in the map products is characterized through analysis of half-ring maps, noise covariance matrices, and simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Simons Observatory Microwave SQUID Multiplexing Detector Module Design

Advances in cosmic microwave background (CMB) science depend on increasing the number of sensitive detectors observing the sky. New instruments deploy large arrays of superconducting transition-edge sensor (TES) bolometers tiled densely into ever larger focal planes. High multiplexing factors reduce the thermal loading on the cryogenic receivers and simplify their design. We present the design of focal-plane modules with an order of magnitude higher multiplexing factor than has previously been achieved with TES bolometers. We focus on the novel cold readout component, which employs microwave SQUID multiplexing (μmux). Simons Observatory will use 49 modules containing 70,000 bolometers to make exquisitely sensitive measurements of the CMB. We validate the focal-plane module design, presenting measurements of the readout component with and without a prototype detector array of 1728 polarization-sensitive bolometers coupled to feedhorns. The readout component achieves a 95% yield and a 910 multiplexing factor. The median white noise of each readout channel is 65 . This impacts the projected SO mapping speed by <8%, which is less than is assumed in the sensitivity projections. The results validate the full functionality of the module. We discuss the measured performance in the context of SO science requirements, which are exceeded.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Simons Observatory Microwave SQUID Multiplexing Detector Module Design

Advances in cosmic microwave background(CMB)science depend on increasing the number of sensitive detectorsobserving the sky. New instruments deploy large arrays of superconducting transition-edge sensor(TES)bolometers tileddensely into ever larger focal planes. High multiplexing factors reduce the thermal loading on the cryogenic receivers andsimplify their design. We present the design of focal-plane modules with an order of magnitude higher multiplexingfactor than has previously been achieved with TES bolometers. We focus on the novel cold readout component, whichemploys microwave SQUID multiplexing(μmux). Simons Observatory will use 49 modules containing 70,000bolometers to make exquisitely sensitive measurements of the CMB. We validate the focal-plane module design,presenting measurements of the readout component with and without a prototype detector array of 1728 polarization-sensitive bolometers coupled to feedhorns. The readout component achieves a 95% yield and a 910 multiplexing factor.The median white noise of each readout channel is 65pA Hz. This impacts the projected SO mapping speed by<8%,which is less than is assumed in the sensitivity projections. The results validate the full functionality of the module. Wediscuss the measured performance in the context of SO science requirements, which are exceeded.

Heather McCarrick↗
NASA NTRS2000

Results from NASA's Near Real Time Ozone Data Assimilation Systems

Organizations in Europe, Australia, and the United States have recently broadened constituent assimilation activities beyond water vapor, which has been assimilated for years in the numerical weather prediction applications. Many of these activities have focused on ozone, with some efforts focused on the entire suite of reactive constituents that control the ozone distribution. This talk will draw from results from the near real-time ozone data assimilation system being run by NASA's Data Assimilation Office. This system utilizes ozone observations from both the TOMS and the SBUV instrument to generate global synoptic maps of ozone. The initial application of this product is to provide ozone fields to assist in the atmospheric corrections' that are necessary for the retrieval of information from other NASA instruments. The validation of the ozone assimilation system shows that the assimilated product agrees well with independent HALOE and ozonesonde observations. Aside from providing a global synoptic map, there is verifiable geophysical information at higher vertical resolution than either of the date types input into the system. This talk will establish the validation results and enumerate applications of the ozone data assimilation system. Results from exploratory research will be presented. The applications being considered include estimates of tropospheric ozone, provision of ozone fields for interactive retrievals, use of analysis increments from the assimilation to evaluate model performance, and development of long-term consistent three-dimensional global ozone fields. The results from the exploratory studies are promising, and help demonstrate how assumptions made in the development of the ozone assimilation impact the other applications. For instance, RMS errors in the current product are large near the tropopause, which is sensitive to the specification of vertical correlation functions, which in turns impacts the amount of ozone analyzed to be in the troposphere. How these sensitivities impact the different applications will also be discussed.

Rood, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Chrono-Validation of Near-Real-Time Landslide Susceptibility Models via Plugin Statistical Simulations

The idea behind any validation scheme in landslide susceptibility studies is to test whether a model calibrated on a certain data can predict an unknown dataset of the same nature (landslide presences/absences and covariates). Almost the entirety of landslide susceptibility studies are validated by subsetting a single dataset into a training and test sets. This dataset usually corresponds either to event-specific or to historical inventories. Very rarely, a multi-temporal inventory is available and, in the few cases where this condition is met, the validation practices involve training a model on a specific landslide inventory, deriving a single predictive equation and validating it on a subsequent landslide inventory. This commonly leads landslide predictive studies, even those with a strong statistical rigor, to neglect the uncertainty estimation in their modeling scheme. In statistics, validation can also be performed via statistical simulations. This means that after fitting a given model, one can generate any number of predictive functions and test their predictive skills on any type and number of unknown datasets. In this work, we take a similar direction and we apply it to model and validate three separate co-seismic inventories, including an uncertainty estimation phase. We mapped these inventories within the same area in Indonesia, for three earthquakes occurred in 2012, 2017 and 2018. Specifically, we build three event-specific Bayesian Generalize Additive Models of the binomial family. From each model we then simulate 1000 predictive realizations over the remaining two inventories, by using a plug-in scheme where all the morphometric covariates are kept fixed and only the ground motion is replaced according to the prediction target. By doing so, we introduce a new analytical tool for near-real-time landslide predictive purposes, which is able to produce a probabilistic model which stands in between the definitions of susceptibility and hazard. In fact, our model is able to accurately estimate “where” and “when” - although not “how frequently” - landslide have occurred by featuring the multitemporal information of the trigger. In our findings, the simulations are quite similar to the fitted models; and the nine combinations we analyse produce excellent performance. This result confirms the assumption that “the past is the key to the future”, as we show that the relative contribution of each variable and their interactions in each probabilistic model remains practically the same across temporal replicates. This information is not trivial because it supports the routines implemented in global near-real-time applications.

Temporal validation↗
DOE OSTI2016

Data Validation Package - June 2016 Groundwater and Surface Water Sampling at the Green River, Utah, Disposal Site

This event included annual sampling of groundwater and surface water locations at the Green River, Utah, Disposal Site. Sampling and analyses were conducted as specified in Sampling and Analysis Plan for US. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management Sites (LMS/PRO/S04351, continually updated, http://energy.gov/lrnldownloads/sampling-and- analysis-plan-us-department-energy-office-legacy-management-sites). Samples were collected from 15 monitoring wells and two surface locations at the disposal site as specified in the draft 2011 Ground Water Compliance Action Plan for the Green River, Utah, Disposal Site. Planned monitoring locations are shown in Attachment 1, Sampling and Analysis Work Order. A duplicate sample was collected from location 0179. One equipment blank was collected during this sampling event. Water levels were measured at all monitoring wells that were sampled. See Attachment 2, Trip Reports for additional details. The analytical data and associated qualifiers can be viewed in environmental database reports and are also available for viewing with dynamic mapping via the GEMS (Geospatial Environmental Mapping System) website at http://gems.lm.doe.gov/#. No issues were identified during the data validation process that requires additional action or follow-up.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Environmental limitation mapping of potential biomass resources across the conterminous U nited S tates

Abstract Several crops have recently been identified as potential dedicated bioenergy feedstocks for the production of power, fuels, and bioproducts. Despite being identified as early as the 1980s, no systematic work has been undertaken to characterize the spatial distribution of their long‐term production potentials in the United states. Such information is a starting point for planners and economic modelers, and there is a need for this spatial information to be developed in a consistent manner for a variety of crops, so that their production potentials can be intercompared to support crop selection decisions. As part of the Sun Grant Regional Feedstock Partnership (RFP), an approach to mapping these potential biomass resources was developed to take advantage of the informational synergy realized when bringing together coordinated field trials, close interaction with expert agronomists, and spatial modeling into a single, collaborative effort. A modeling and mapping system called PRISM‐ELM was designed to answer a basic question: How do climate and soil characteristics affect the spatial distribution and long‐term production patterns of a given crop? This empirical/mechanistic/biogeographical hybrid model employs a limiting factor approach, where productivity is determined by the most limiting of the factors addressed in submodels that simulate water balance, winter low‐temperature response, summer high‐temperature response, and soil pH , salinity, and drainage. Yield maps are developed through linear regressions relating soil and climate attributes to reported yield data. The model was parameterized and validated using grain yield data for winter wheat and maize, which served as benchmarks for parameterizing the model for upland and lowland switchgrass, CRP grasses, Miscanthus, biomass sorghum, energycane, willow, and poplar. The resulting maps served as potential production inputs to analyses comparing the viability of biomass crops under various economic scenarios. The modeling and parameterization framework can be expanded to include other biomass crops.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗