Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “mechanistic modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28

Quantifying Drivers of Methane Hydrobiogeochemistry in a Tidal River Floodplain System

The influence of coastal ecosystems on global greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets and their response to increasing inundation and salinization remains poorly constrained. In this study, we have integrated an uncertainty quantification (UQ) and ensemble machine learning (ML) framework to identify and rank the most influential processes, properties, and conditions controlling methane behavior in a freshwater floodplain responding to recently restored seawater inundation. Our unique multivariate, multiyear, and multi-site dataset comprises tidal creek and floodplain porewater observations encompassing water level, salinity, pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO 2 ), nitrous oxide (pN 2 O), methane (pCH 4 ), and the stable isotopic composition of methane (δ 13 CH 4 ). Additionally, we incorporated topographical data, soil porosity, hydraulic conductivity, and water retention parameters for UQ analysis using a previously developed 3D variably saturated flow and transport floodplain model for a physical mechanistic understanding of factors influencing groundwater levels and salinity and, therefore, CH 4 . Principal component analysis revealed that groundwater level and salinity are the most significant predictors of overall biogeochemical variability. The ensemble ML models and UQ analyses identified DO, water level, salinity, and temperature as the most influential factors for porewater methane levels and indicated that approximately 80% of the total variability in hourly water levels and around 60% of the total variability in hourly salinity can be explained by permeability, creek water level, and two van Genuchten water retention function parameters: the air-entry suction parameter α and the pore size distribution parameter m. These findings provide insights on the physicochemical factors in methane behavior in coastal ecosystems and their representation in local- to global-scale Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhancing carbon storage through proactively managing fire-prone coniferous mountain forests

Mountain ecosystems typically serve as carbon (C) sinks. However, studies also suggest that they could be C sources due to climate warming, drought and insect-related mortality, wildfires, and management actions. We applied the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS), a process-based dynamic vegetation-ecosystem model, to investigate the role of ecosystem management in C storage under Mediterranean climate over the 21 st century. We modified LPJ-GUESS to include implementing mechanical thinning by vegetation size classes, components, and types along with a new mechanistic fire-occurrence model that accounts for wind speed and lightning ignition. Simulations show that mechanical thinning or prescribed fire performed 5-20 years in advance of a high-severity wildfire reduced direct wildfire C emissions by 38-66 %. Our results also show that long-term management actions repeated every 5-20 years, including thinning relatively small trees (diameters up to 7 inches or ∼178 mm), can maintain stable C levels in the forest and lower dead-fuel amounts. We found that, although prescribed fire mitigated wildfire severity, ecosystem C storage from reduced wildfire emissions can be outweighed by the added emissions from the prescribed fire themselves. Thinning plus removing and sequestering the thinned biomass can ensure that forests act as net C sinks through the end of the 21 st century. However, addition of prescribed fire is needed to reduce understory and lower the projected extent of high-severity wildfire. Achieving the competing goals of reducing wildfire and making the Sierra Nevada long-term C sink can be advanced through carefully coordinated thinning, sequestration of thinned biomass, and prescribed fire.

Climate solutions↗

Modeling the Size Distribution and Chemical Composition of Secondary Organic Aerosols during the Reactive Uptake of Isoprene-Derived Epoxydiols under Low-Humidity Condition

Reactive uptake of isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX), which are isoprene oxidation products, onto acidic sulfate aerosols is recognized to be an important mechanism for the formation of isoprene-derived secondary organic aerosol (SOA). While a mechanistic understanding of IEPOX-SOA formation exists, several processes affecting their formation remain uncertain. Evaluating mechanistic IEPOX-SOA models with controlled laboratory experiments under longer atmospherically relevant timescales is critical. Here, we implement our latest understanding of IEPOX-SOA formation within a box model to simulate the measured reactive uptake of IEPOX on polydisperse ammonium bisulfate seed aerosols within an environmental Teflon chamber. The model is evaluated with single-particle measurements of size distribution, volume, density, and composition of aerosols due to IEPOX-SOA formation at timescales of hours. Additionally, we find that the model can simulate the growth of particles due to IEPOX multiphase chemistry, as reflected in increases of the mean particle size and volume concentrations, and a shift of number size distribution to larger sizes. The model also predicts the observed evolution of particle number mean diameter and total volume concentrations at the end of the experiment. We show that in addition to self-limiting effects of IEPOX-SOA coatings, accounting for the molar balance between inorganic and organic sulfate and mass accommodation coefficient of IEPOX are important parameters governing modeling of IEPOX-SOA formation. Thus, models which do not account for the molar sulfate balance and/or diffusion limitations within IEPOX-SOA coatings are likely to predict too high IEPOX-SOA formation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The use of plasma ashers and Monte Carlo modeling for the projection of atomic oxygen durability of protected polymers in low Earth orbit

The results of ground laboratory and in-space exposure of polymeric materials to atomic oxygen has enabled the development of a Monte Carlo computational model which simulates the oxidation processes of both environments. The cost effective projection of long-term low-Earth-orbital durability of protected polymeric materials such as SiO(x)-coated polyimide Kapton photovoltaic array blankets will require ground-based testing to assure power system reliability. Although silicon dioxide thin film protective coatings can greatly extend the useful life of polymeric materials in ground-based testing, the projection of in-space durability based on these results can be made more reliable through the use of modeling which simulates the mechanistic properties of atomic oxygen interaction, and replicates test results in both environments. Techniques to project long-term performance of protected materials, such as the Space Station Freedom solar array blankets, are developed based on ground laboratory experiments, in-space experiments, and computational modeling.

Banks, Bruce A.↗

Attractive Noncovalent Interactions versus Steric Confinement in Asymmetric Supramolecular Catalysis

The remarkable catalytic performance of enzymes stems from their ability to engage in precise noncovalent interactions (NCIs) within a sterically confined space. Supramolecular catalysis seeks to emulate and understand these strategies through the rational design of simple and controlled catalyst microenvironments. While both steric confinement and attractive interactions have been invoked as key to host activity, their relative contribution to rate enhancement and selectivity, as well as potential trade-offs, remains an outstanding question. Here, we address this question by systematically comparing two metal–organic supramolecular catalysts, which differ in the strength of their attractive noncovalent interactions and in their cavity volume. Our findings reveal that the catalyst with the larger cavity, and with stronger available NCIs, exhibits both significant rate acceleration (100-fold) and enhanced enantioselectivity (84% vs 14% ee) in a model ketone reduction compared to its smaller analogue. Mechanistic analysis, binding competition experiments, and computational modeling indicate that these differences predominantly stem from stabilizing noncovalent interactions in the larger catalyst, a result that challenges existing steric-based models of supramolecular stereoinduction. Understanding the governing factors of asymmetric induction and rate acceleration in supramolecular hosts will undoubtedly inform future catalyst design.

Catalysts↗

Integrated network modeling approach defines key metabolic responses of soil microbiomes to perturbations

The soil environment is constantly changing due to shifts in soil moisture, nutrient availability and other conditions. To contend with these changes, soil microorganisms have evolved a variety of ways to adapt to environmental perturbations, including regulation of gene expression. However, it is challenging to untangle the complex phenotypic response of the soil to environmental change, partly due to the absence of predictive modeling frameworks that can mechanistically link molecular-level changes in soil microorganisms to a community’s functional phenotypes (or metaphenome). Towards filling this gap, we performed a combined analysis of metabolic and gene co-expression networks to explore how the soil microbiome responded to changes in soil moisture and nutrient conditions and to determine which genes were expressed under a given condition. Our integrated modeling approach revealed previously unknown, but critically important aspects of the soil microbiomes’ response to environmental perturbations. Incorporation of metabolomic and transcriptomic data into metabolic reaction networks identified condition-specific signature genes that are uniquely associated with dry, wet, and glycine-amended conditions. A subsequent gene co-expression network analysis revealed that drought-associated genes occupied more central positions in a network model of the soil community, compared to the genes associated with wet, and glycine-amended conditions. These results indicate the occurrence of system-wide metabolic coordination when soil microbiomes cope with moisture or nutrient perturbations. Importantly, the approach that we demonstrate here to analyze large-scale multi-omics data from a natural soil environment is applicable to other microbiome systems for which multi-omics data are available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanistic mass transfer in hollow fiber membrane solvent extraction for bio-based isobutanol

Membrane solvent extraction (MSE) has emerged as a promising method for selectively recovering bioproducts from complex aqueous streams. Bio-isobutanol, a next-generation feedstock for biofuel, remains challenging to recover because of its low concentration and the presence of inhibitory substances. This study explores the potential of hollow fiber (HF) MSE for bio-isobutanol recovery and systematically examines the coupled effects of fiber packing, shell-side flow dynamics, and aqueous chemistry on performance. A resistance-in-series model is applied to understand mass transfer in the HF MSE modules, quantify local resistances, and validate overall performance. The results show that increasing the fiber packing provides a larger interfacial area but induces poor flow distribution and channeling, hindering effective isobutanol transport. Meanwhile, increasing the shell-side velocity improves isobutanol recovery due to reductions in the boundary layer thickness. The presence of salts, added to mimic fermentation broth, increases the partition coefficient through salting-out effects, further improving isobutanol flux. A modified correlation for the shell-side mass transfer coefficient (k s,ϕ+v ), integrating geometric and hydrodynamic effects, was developed and validated. The proposed model achieves highly predictive accuracy (r 2 = 0.9808) across a wide range of conditions, outperforming previous models. The findings provide mechanistic insight into the interaction of geometric packing, hydrodynamics, and chemistry in governing mass transfer in HF MSE. Overall, this work demonstrates the potential of HF MSE for efficient bio-isobutanol recovery and also provides practical guidelines on critical factors (packing fraction, partition coefficient, and shell-side velocity), aiding in the design and scaling of MSE systems for resource recovery.

Aqueous chemistry↗

The role of Ekman flow and planetary waves in the oceanic cross-equatorial heat transport

A numerical model is used to mechanistically simulate the oceans' seasonal cross-equatorial heat transport. The basic process of Ekman pumping and drift is able to account for a large amount of the cross-equatorial flux. Increased easterly wind stress in the winter hemisphere causes Ekman surface drift poleward, while decreased easterly stress allows a reduction in the poleward drift in the summer hemisphere. The addition of planetary and gravity waves to this model does not alter the net cross-equatorial flow, although the planetary waves are clearly seen. On comparison with Oort and Vonder Haar (1976), this adiabatic advective redistribution of heat is seen to be plausible up to 10-20 deg N, beyond which other dynamics and thermodynamics are indicated.

Schopf, P. S.↗

Microbial macroecology: In search of mechanisms governing microbial biogeographic patterns

Abstract Introduction Rapidly advancing technologies and accumulating information about microbial communities across the globe allow the quantification of microbial properties and functions at a macro‐scale. These emerging microbial biogeographic patterns call for a practical macroecological approach to investigate their underlying mechanisms. Aims The primary aims of this paper are to review the advancements of microbial macroecology in seeking mechanisms governing microbial biogeographic patterns, and to further lay out a roadmap for microbial macroecology in 10 years. Methods We reviewed the progress of microbial macroecology and demonstrated the application of the microbial macroecological approach to microbial biogeographic patterns with three case studies. Results Microbial macroecology provides a platform for understanding microbial abundance, community structure, and functioning across space, time, and taxonomic hierarchy. It emphasizes the integral effects of environmental filtering, microbial responses, diversification, dispersal, and local extinction that drive the microbial biogeographic patterns. The microbial macroecological approach emphasizes the last two stages of the four‐stage scientific method applied to microbial ecology: (a) describing microbial traits across scales to reveal patterns, (b) mathematically representing these patterns, (c) developing and testing conceptual models to build a mechanistic understanding of these patterns from a macroecological perspective, (d) plugging the new knowledge into the theoretical advancements. Three case studies were used to demonstrate the microbial macroecological approach for understanding the global patterns of microbial biomass carbon, microbial composition (fungi : bacteria ratio), and microbial carbon use efficiency. Conclusions Microbial macroecology offers a platform for understanding the mechanisms that drive biogeographic patterns of microbial abundance, diversity and functions. It is likely that these patterns and mechanisms will be increasingly incorporated into predictive models that link climate, carbon dynamics, and biogeochemical processes. A roadmap is outlined for the growing microbial macroecology field; we expect significant progress will be made in five research directions over the next 10 years.

Xu, Xiaofeng↗

An Integrative Model for Soil Biogeochemistry and Methane Processes. II: Warming and Elevated CO 2 Effects on Peatland CH 4 Emissions

Peatlands are one of the largest natural sources for atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), a potent greenhouse gas. Climate warming and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are two important environmental factors that have been confirmed to stimulate peatland CH 4 emissions; however, the mechanisms underlying enhanced emissions remain elusive. A data-model integration approach was applied to understand the CH 4 processes in a northern temperate peatland under a gradient of warming and doubled atmospheric CO 2 concentration. We found that warming and elevated CO 2 stimulated CH 4 emissions through different mechanisms. Warming initially stimulated but then suppressed vegetative productivity while stimulating soil organic matter (SOM) mineralization and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fermentation, which led to higher acetate production and enhanced acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Warming also enhanced surface CH 4 emissions, which combined with warming-caused decreases in CH 4 solubility led to slightly lower dissolved CH 4 concentrations through the soil profiles. Elevated CO 2 enhanced ecosystem productivity and SOM mineralization, resulting in higher DOC and acetate concentrations. Higher DOC and acetate concentrations increased acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis and led to higher dissolved CH 4 concentrations and CH 4 emissions. Both warming and elevated CO 2 had minor impacts on CH 4 oxidation. A meta-analysis of warming and elevated CO 2 impacts on carbon cycling in wetlands agreed well with a majority of the modeled mechanisms. Finally, this mechanistic understanding of the stimulating impacts of warming and elevated CO 2 on peatland CH 4 emissions enhances our predictability on the climate-ecosystem feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Future of Sensitivity Analysis: An essential discipline for systems modeling and policy support

Sensitivity analysis (SA) is en route to becoming an integral part of mathematical modeling. The tremendous potential benefits of SA are, however, yet to be fully realized, both for advancing mechanistic and data-driven modeling of human and natural systems, and in support of decision making. In this perspective paper, a multidisciplinary group of researchers and practitioners revisit the current status of SA, and outline research challenges in regard to both theoretical frameworks and their applications to solve real-world problems. Six areas are discussed that warrant further attention, including (1) structuring and standardizing SA as a discipline, (2) realizing the untapped potential of SA for systems modeling, (3) addressing the computational burden of SA, (4) progressing SA in the context of machine learning, (5) clarifying the relationship and role of SA to uncertainty quantification, and (6) evolving the use of SA in support of decision making. An outlook for the future of SA is provided that underlines how SA must underpin a wide variety of activities to better serve science and society.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Extracellular electron transfer across bio-nano interfaces for CO 2 electroreduction

Acetogenic bacteria represent a class of organisms capable of converting reducing equivalents and carbon dioxide into products with carbon–carbon bonds. Materials-based bio-electrochemical approaches are attractive for supplying biological organisms directly with grid-supplied electrons to convert carbon dioxide to value-added chemicals. Carbon nanotube-modified biocathodes have emerged as promising candidates for microbial electrosynthesis with high yields of carbon product formation, but a fundamental understanding of extracellular charge transfer at this electrode-biofilm interface is still lacking. Here, we utilize solid-state interfaces between semiconducting single-walled carbon nanotubes (s-SWCNT) and a model acetogenic bacterium for mechanistic studies of electro-catalytic CO 2 conversion to acetate. Studies of bacteria/s-SWCNT interactions in a transistor-based device suggest direct extracellular electron transfer (EET) at the bio-nano interface. Deuterium isotope labeling experiments confirmed that the availability of electrochemically produced H 2 as a redox mediator does not limit the efficiency of EET and CO 2 electro-reduction for C. ljungdahlii biofilms, suggesting the primary reducing equivalents are the electrons delivered across the electrode/bacterium interface or involvement of biological redox mediators. Additional isotope labeling studies demonstrate high Faradaic efficiency for CO 2 electro-reduction at the SWCNT/bacterium interface. These results provide important information about EET across the bacterium/material interface in a model biocathode.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Fracture-tough, corrosion-resistant bearing steels

The fundamental principles allowing design of stainless bearing steels with enhanced toughness and stress corrosion resistance has involved both investigation of basic phenomena in model alloys and evaluation of a prototype bearing steel based on a conceptual design exercise. Progress in model studies has included a scanning Auger microprobe (SAM) study of the kinetics of interfacial segregation of embrittling impurities which compete with the kinetics of alloy carbide precipitation in secondary hardening steels. These results can define minimum allowable carbide precipitation rates and/or maximum allowable free impurity contents in these ultrahigh strength steels. Characterization of the prototype bearing steel designed to combine precipitated austenite transformation toughening with secondary hardening shows good agreement between predicted and observed solution treatment response including the nature of the high temperature carbides. An approximate equilibrium constraint applied in the preliminary design calculations to maintain a high martensitic temperature proved inadequate, and the solution treated alloy remained fully austenitic down to liquid nitrogen temperature rather than transforming above 200 C. The alloy can be martensitically transformed by cryogenic deformation, and material so processed will be studied further to test predicted carbide and austenite precipitation behavior. A mechanistically-based martensitic kinetic model was developed and parameters are being evaluated from available kinetic data to allow precise control of martensitic temperatures of high alloy steels in future designs. Preliminary calculations incorporating the prototype stability results suggest that the transformation-toughened secondary-hardening martensitic-stainless design concept is still viable, but may require lowering Cr content to 9 wt. pct. and adding 0.5 to 1.0 wt. pct. Al. An alternative design approach based on strain-induced martensitic transformation during cryogenic forming, thus removing the high martensitic constraint, may permit alloy compositions offering higher fracture roughness.

Olson, Gregory B.↗

Data for: Time to anoxia: Observations and predictions of oxygen drawdown following coastal flood events

This dataset contains data and code associated with the paper Patel et al. "Time to anoxia: Observations and predictions of oxygen drawdown following coastal flood events".The coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface (TAI) is a highly dynamic system characterized by strong physical, chemical, and biological gradients. In particular, shifting soil redox conditions and consumption of terminal electron acceptors, due in part to dynamic hydrologic conditions, is a strong driver of carbon availability and transformations across TAIs. However, while redox dynamics are well described, our ability to quantitatively forecast rates of oxic to anoxic shifts in soils with different characteristics and inundation regimes is limited. We integrated field measurements, laboratory incubations, and model simulations to improve mechanistic understanding of oxygen consumption dynamics in coastal soils. Continuous in situ monitoring unexpectedly revealed that flooding caused temporary spikes in subsurface dissolved oxygen followed by rapid consumption in the wetlands. To further investigate these mechanisms in a controlled setting, we performed laboratory incubations using surface and subsurface soils from a TAI gradient (defined here as upland forest to transitional forest to wetland) in Western Lake Erie to measure oxygen consumption rates in TAI soils during flood events. In our experiments, wetland soils reached anoxia the fastest, in ∼ 9 h on average, whereas upland soils turned anoxic in ∼ 18 h. Subsurface upland soils did not turn anoxic even after two weeks of saturation in the lab, and their oxygen consumption patterns suggested carbon and/or nutrient limitation. These results are consistent with in-situ groundwater redox and oxygen measurements in the field, where wetland soils exhibited the highest rates of oxygen consumption along the TAI. Model simulations of oxygen consumption suggested that oxygen consumption had stronger abiotic controls in wetland soils but stronger biotic controls in upland soils, providing a useful framework for future incubation experiments. Microbial activity is a strong driver of oxygen consumption in TAI soils, although it is constrained by the availability of dissolved carbon in subsurface soils.This dataset contains a compressed (.zip) archive of the data and R scripts used for this manuscript. The dataset includes files in .csv format, which can be accessed and processed using MS Excel or R. This archive can also be accessed on GitHub at https://github.com/COMPASS-DOE/cmps-time_to_anoxia (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10815374).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deep Learning Approaches to Surrogates for Solving the Diffusion Equation for Mechanistic Real-World Simulations

In many mechanistic medical, biological, physical, and engineered spatiotemporal dynamic models the numerical solution of partial differential equations (PDEs), especially for diffusion, fluid flow and mechanical relaxation, can make simulations impractically slow. Biological models of tissues and organs often require the simultaneous calculation of the spatial variation of concentration of dozens of diffusing chemical species. One clinical example where rapid calculation of a diffusing field is of use is the estimation of oxygen gradients in the retina, based on imaging of the retinal vasculature, to guide surgical interventions in diabetic retinopathy. Furthermore, the ability to predict blood perfusion and oxygenation may one day guide clinical interventions in diverse settings, i.e., from stent placement in treating heart disease to BOLD fMRI interpretation in evaluating cognitive function (Xie et al., 2019; Lee et al., 2020). Since the quasi-steady-state solutions required for fast-diffusing chemical species like oxygen are particularly computationally costly, we consider the use of a neural network to provide an approximate solution to the steady-state diffusion equation. Machine learning surrogates, neural networks trained to provide approximate solutions to such complicated numerical problems, can often provide speed-ups of several orders of magnitude compared to direct calculation. Surrogates of PDEs could enable use of larger and more detailed models than are possible with direct calculation and can make including such simulations in real-time or near-real time workflows practical. Creating a surrogate requires running the direct calculation tens of thousands of times to generate training data and then training the neural network, both of which are computationally expensive. Often the practical applications of such models require thousands to millions of replica simulations, for example for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification, each of which gains speed from surrogate use and rapidly recovers the up-front costs of surrogate generation. We use a Convolutional Neural Network to approximate the stationary solution to the diffusion equation in the case of two equal-diameter, circular, constant-value sources located at random positions in a two-dimensional square domain with absorbing boundary conditions. Such a configuration caricatures the chemical concentration field of a fast-diffusing species like oxygen in a tissue with two parallel blood vessels in a cross section perpendicular to the two blood vessels. To improve convergence during training, we apply a training approach that uses roll-back to reject stochastic changes to the network that increase the loss function. The trained neural network approximation is about 1000 times faster than the direct calculation for individual replicas. Because different applications will have different criteria for acceptable approximation accuracy, we discuss a variety of loss functions and accuracy estimators that can help select the best network for a particular application. We briefly discuss some of the issues we encountered with overfitting, mismapping of the field values and the geometrical conditions that lead to large absolute and relative errors in the approximate solution.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Polyethylene Terephthalate Deconstruction Catalyzed by a Carbon‐Supported Single‐Site Molybdenum‐Dioxo Complex

Abstract Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) is selectively depolymerized by a carbon‐supported single‐site molybdenum‐dioxo catalyst to terephthalic acid (PTA) and ethylene. The solventless reactions are most efficient under 1 atmosphere of H 2 . The catalyst exhibits high stability and can be recycled multiple times without loss of activity. Waste beverage bottle PET or a PET + polypropylene (PP) mixture (simulating the bottle + cap) proceeds at 260 °C with complete PET deconstruction and quantitative PTA isolation. Mechanistic studies with a model diester, 1,2‐ethanediol dibenzoate, suggest the reaction proceeds by initial retro‐hydroalkoxylation/β‐C−O scission and subsequent hydrogenolysis of the vinyl benzoate intermediate.

Kratish, Yosi↗