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CalderaCast User Manual Version 1.0

CalderaCast is a user-friendly web-based tool for electrical-load forecast, providing stakeholders with a fully customizable decision-support framework that estimates the likely power draw from a possible future electric-vehicle (EV) charging station at a given location on a given day along an alternative fuel corridor (AFC). These EV charging profiles are accurately modeled in CalderaCast using the Caldera software framework developed by Idaho National Laboratories (INL), reflecting the realistic charging levels observed in actual charge events. This tool was developed as part of the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) program, which is quickly generating substantial interest from would-be charging station operators (CSO), large and small electric utilities, and state transportation planners, some of whom had not seriously considered EV charging previously. All these entities—with or without background in EV infrastructure—must estimate the electricity load that a proposed charging station will generate. This load forecast is critically important for a utility to properly assess the capacity of their distribution network to support the proposed station or properly size grid upgrades for potential load growth due to future EV adoption, vehicle technology improvements, or station growth. This document describes each aspect of the CalderaCast tool and provides guidance to users who are interested in utilizing the tool for their work.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

BIL GRID-READY WIND: Reliable and Economical Grid Services Design, Implementation, and Demonstration at the Great Pathfinder Wind Power Plant

The GRID-READY WIND project aimed to demonstrate the ability of utility-scale wind power plants (WPPs) to deliver traditional and emerging grid services (GSs) in both grid-following (GFL) and grid-forming (GFM) modes through a centralized control framework, supplemented by local control adjustments at the wind turbine generator as needed. Throughout the project, the team offered recommendations on how the grid services demonstrated with WPPs could be applied to other inverter-based resources (IBRs), such as photovoltaic (PV) systems and battery energy storage systems (BESS), while considering the unique dynamics of these resources arising from their energy generation characteristics. The project sought to enhance the confidence of system operators (SOs) and planners in utilizing WPPs, alongside other IBRs such as PV plants and BESS, to provide essential grid services over extended periods under diverse operating conditions, thereby supporting their integration into the bulk power system.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Speed to Power: Solutions for Accelerating Large Load Connections

Rapid growth in demand from data centers and other large loads is creating a range of new challenges for electricity planners, investors, system operators, and regulators, leading to bottlenecks that have slowed connection of large loads to the electric grid. In response, innovative solutions for accelerating large load connections are beginning to emerge across the U.S. Drawing on an extensive document and literature review, this report identifies more than 40 potential solutions for accelerating large load connections, organized into five functional areas: load forecasting, interconnection, resource planning and procurement, markets and operations, and cost allocation and ratemaking. The five functional areas provide a framework for organizing challenges and solutions to large load connection bottlenecks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electromagnetic Transient Modeling of Large Data Centers for Grid-Level Studies: Beta Release

The magnitude and complexity of electricity usage patterns from large data centers are having significant impacts on the operation and dynamics of the power grid; grid operators and planners require a range of specialized data center models to properly evaluate these impacts and specify technical solutions as needed. Towards addressing this need, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed a library of electromagnetic transient (EMT) models for grid-level studies of data centers called the data center model library (DML). This report describes how the DML was created and how it may properly be used. This report details the DML’s beta release, completed in July 2026. This is a revision and expansion of the alpha release, which was made available in January 2026 The models present in the DML are generic models; subject matter expertise and additional technical data are needed to modify these models before they can represent any real data center. However, they will significantly reduce the level of effort required to develop site-specific models and can serve as a common starting point to guide industry towards a more refined consensus. Most of the models within DML are dedicated to representing the power electronics interfaces commonly used in modern data centers, such as double-conversion uninterruptible power supplies and single-phase power factor correction converters. These models are intended for use in grid-level studies and are a simplified aggregation of many small components. That said, background material on the physical and electrical design of large data centers is provided as companion material so that users can be aware of many of the details which have been omitted or streamlined as a matter of practical necessity. Additionally, guidance on the application of EMT analysis for data center interconnection studies is provided, which aids users in identifying when the DML is necessary and what sort of additional model development may be necessary for conducting real-world studies.

electromagnetic transients↗

U.S. Hydropower Development Pipeline Data, 2026

The U.S. Hydropower Development Pipeline dataset provides a comprehensive, regularly updated view of proposed and potential hydropower projects across the United States. This resource compiles information from federal agencies and other public sources to track non-powered dams considered for electrification, proposed hydropower facilities at stream reaches with no existing dams, conduit exemptions, and emerging pumped storage hydropower proposals. The dataset includes project characteristics such as location, development status, technology type, ownership category, and other attributes that support analysis of future hydropower trends. It is designed to help researchers, planners, policymakers, and stakeholders assess national‑scale development patterns, understand the evolving hydropower landscape, and explore opportunities and challenges associated with new hydropower deployment. The dataset is updated annually to reflect changes in project status, new proposals entering the pipeline, and projects that are cancelled, completed, or otherwise removed from active consideration. Note: Capacity additions to existing hydropower plants are not included in this database due to reliance on a proprietary data source.

Johnson, Megan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000290141741)↗

Multi-Agent Control of Lane-Switching Automated Vehicles for Energy Efficiency

The proliferation of automatic control systems and their connectivity accents the performance of their interactions. In particular, connected and automated vehicles could become high-impact examples thanks to their energy use and productivity effects. Ideally, a controller might collectively optimize all agents' control moves for a given objective. However, limits on computational complexity, incomplete knowledge of the central planner, and risks of a single point of failure make distributed control attractive as well. This paper proposes a collaborative heuristic to approach the performance of centralized control with decentralized-like computational effort. The related centralized controller is also described in detail and evaluated as a baseline. A collaboration-intensive obstacle avoidance scenario involving electric vehicles is simulated to demonstrate benefits over fully decentralized control. While centralized optimization performed best with an 8.6 % energy reduction, the collaborative decentralized scheme reached a favorable computation-performance tradeoff with a 6.7 % energy reduction.

Dollar, R. Austin↗

Stakeholder-driven carbon neutral pathways for Thailand and Bangkok: integrated assessment modeling to inform multilevel climate governance

Thailand has established a target of carbon neutrality by 2050. Reaching this goal will require coordination and collaboration between stakeholders spanning sectors and scales, including energy system decision makers, land managers, and city planners. Robust decarbonization scenarios incorporating current plans and targets, additional measures needed, and trade-offs between strategies can help stakeholders make informed decisions in the face of uncertainty. Through iterative engagement with decision makers at the city and national levels, we develop and analyze carbon neutral scenarios for Thailand that incorporate Bangkok’s role using a global integrated assessment model. We find that Thailand can reach carbon neutrality through power sector decarbonization, energy efficiency improvements, widespread electrification, and advanced technologies including carbon capture and storage and hydrogen. Negative emissions technologies will also be needed to offset Thailand and Bangkok’s hardest-to-abate CO 2 emissions. Bangkok, as a major population and economic center, contributes significantly to Thailand’s energy demand and emissions and can therefore play an important role in climate change mitigation. Accordingly, our results underscore the importance of subnational climate action in meeting Thailand’s carbon neutral goal. Our analysis also indicates that without sustained land-based carbon sequestration, much more mitigation effort will be needed in Thailand’s energy sector, including at the subnational scale, to reach carbon neutrality. These insights can help stakeholders identify priorities, consider tradeoffs, and make decisions that will impact Bangkok and Thailand’s long-term climate change mitigation potential. This analysis demonstrates how stakeholder engagement in integrated assessment modeling can facilitate and inform multilevel climate governance.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The FEWSION for Community Resilience (F4R) Process: Building Local Technical and Social Capacity for Critical Supply Chain Resilience

Local business leaders, policy makers, elected officials, city planners, emergency managers, and private citizens are responsible for, and deeply affected by, the performance of critical supply chains and related infrastructures. At the center of critical supply chains is the food-energy-water nexus (FEW); a nexus that is key to a community’s wellbeing, resilience, and sustainability. In the 21st century, managing a local FEW nexus requires accurate data describing the function and structure of a community’s supply chains. However, data is not enough; we need data-informed conversation and technical and social capacity building among local stakeholders to utilize the data effectively. There are some resources available at the mesoscale and for food, energy, or water, but many communities lack the data and tools needed to understand connections and bridge the gaps between these scales and systems. As a result, we currently lack the capacity to manage these systems in small and medium sized communities where the vast majority of people, decisions, and problems reside. This study develops and validates a participatory citizen science process for FEW nexus capacity building and data-driven problem solving in small communities at the grassroots level. The FEWSION for Community Resilience (F4R) process applies a Public Participation in Scientific Research (PPSR) framework to map supply chain data for a community’s FEW nexus, to identify the social network that manages the nexus, and then to generate a data-informed conversation among stakeholders. F4R was piloted and co-developed with participants over a 2-year study, using a design-based research process to make evidence-based adjustments as needed. Results show that the F4R model was successful at improving volunteers’ awareness about nexus and supply chain issues, at creating a network of connections and communication with stakeholders across state, regional, and local organizations, and in facilitating data-informed discussion about improvements to the system. In this paper we describe the design and implementation of F4R and discuss four recommendations for the successful application of the F4R model in other communities: 1) embed opportunities for co-created PPSR, 2) build social capital, 3) integrate active learning strategies with user-friendly digital tools, and 4) adopt existing materials and structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Expected occurrence of wildlife in US Atlantic offshore wind areas

Offshore wind energy has entered a pivotal phase of development for the U.S. Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), a region that supports critical habitats, migratory corridors and flyways for many marine species. Assessing where and when marine wildlife occurs is a crucial first step in developing a risk assessment framework to evaluate potential risks and impacts of offshore wind development. In this study, we perform this initial assessment by evaluating the expected occurrence of marine mammal, seabird and sea turtle taxa in areas of interest to identify patterns and potential areas of concern. Specifically, this work depicts the expected monthly density of 84 marine species and taxa within each of the 29 active wind energy lease areas plus a 10 km buffer to account for nearby activity. We then compare these densities to subregional thresholds, evaluated as the 90th percentile of the subregion’s monthly density, to provide comparisons across the shelf region. This analysis synthesizes the most recent spatial distribution models of 31 marine mammal taxa (26 species and 5 guilds), 49 seabird species and 4 sea turtle species to provide a unified evaluation of the major marine wildlife in the region. Out of the 84 species and taxa analyzed, 56 exhibit levels of expected density in wind energy areas that exceed the corresponding 90th percentile subregional threshold at some point throughout the year. These results represent an initial assessment in the broader Occurrence, Exposure, Response, and Consequence (OERC) framework, originally developed by the U.S. Navy for marine species risk assessments. These results offer valuable guidance to marine spatial planners, management agencies and offshore wind developers on the expected locations and timing of interaction risk to wildlife species in or near wind energy areas across the region.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Next-Generation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure Design: Advances and Opportunities

National and international security communities (e.g., U.S. Department of Defense) have shown increasing attention for innovating critical infrastructure and installations due to recurring high-profile flooding events in recent years. The standard infrastructure design approach relies on local precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves that do not account for snow process and assume stationary climate, leading to high failure risk and increased maintenance costs. This paper reviews the recently developed next-generation IDF (NG-IDF) curves that explicitly account for the mechanisms of extreme water available for runoff including rainfall, snowmelt, and rain-on-snow under nonstationary climate. The NG-IDF curve is an enhancement to the PREC-IDF curve and provides a consistent design approach across rain- to snow-dominated regions, which can benefit engineers and planners responsible for designing climate-resilient facilities, federal emergency agencies responsible for the flood insurance program, and local jurisdictions responsible for developing design manuals and approving subsequent infrastructure designs. Further, we discuss the recent advances in climate and hydrologic science communities that have not been translated into actional information in the engineering community. To bridge the gap, we advocate that building climate-resilient infrastructure goes beyond the traditional local design scale where engineers rely on recipe-based methods only; the future hydrologic design is a multi-scale problem and requires closer collaboration between climate scientists, hydrologists, and civil engineers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Unified User-Friendly Instrument Control and Data Acquisition System for the ORNL SANS Instrument Suite

In an effort to upgrade and provide a unified and improved instrument control and data acquisition system for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) instrument suite—biological small-angle neutron scattering instrument (Bio-SANS), the extended q-range small-angle neutron scattering diffractometer (EQ-SANS), the general-purpose small-angle neutron scattering diffractometer (GP-SANS)—beamline scientists and developers teamed up and worked closely together to design and develop a new system. We began with an in-depth analysis of user needs and requirements, covering all perspectives of control and data acquisition based on previous usage data and user feedback. Our design and implementation were guided by the principles from the latest user experience and design research and based on effective practices from our previous projects. In this article, we share details of our design process as well as prominent features of the new instrument control and data acquisition system. The new system provides a sophisticated Q-Range Planner to help scientists and users plan and execute instrument configurations easily and efficiently. The system also provides different user operation interfaces, such as wizard-type tool Panel Scan, a Scripting Tool based on Python Language, and Table Scan, all of which are tailored to different user needs. The new system further captures all the metadata to enable post-experiment data reduction and possibly automatic reduction and provides users with enhanced live displays and additional feedback at the run time. We hope our results will serve as a good example for developing a user-friendly instrument control and data acquisition system at large user facilities.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Integration of Open-Source URBANopt and Dragonfly Energy Modeling Capabilities into Practitioner Workflows for District-Scale Planning and Design

High-performance districts and communities offer opportunities for reducing energy use, emissions, and costs, and can be instrumental in helping cities achieve their climate goals. The design of such communities requires identification of opportunities early on and their re-evaluation throughout the planning process. There is a need for energy modeling tools that connect 3D Computer-Aided Design (CAD) platforms to simulation engines, enabling detailed energy analysis of districts within the workflows and tools used by practitioners. This paper introduces the Dragonfly and URBANoptTM combined toolset that supports the creation of urban models from a range of geometry formats typically used by designers and planners, and provides an integrated pathway to simulate district-scale energy systems. The toolset is piloted by a global architecture and master planning firm to evaluate several key urban-scale technical questions for the design of a district in Chicago. The findings indicate that, while energy savings can be achieved through traditional architectural studies and enhancements to individual building efficiency, the modeling toolset helps identify additional savings and insights that can be achieved when considering district-scale energy systems. Finally, this study demonstrates how the Dragonfly/URBANopt toolset can integrate with master planning workflows, thereby enabling an iterative performance-based design process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Risk-Averse Approach for Distribution Grid Expansion Planning

Recent episodes of natural disasters have challenged the resilience of power grids. Adequate distribution grid planning that properly captures the risk aversion of the utility system planner is a key factor to increase the flexibility of distribution networks to circumvent these events. In this paper, we propose a methodology to determine the optimal portfolio of investments in lines and storage devices in order to minimize a convex combination between expected value and CVaR of operational costs, including energy not served, while taking into account the multistage nature of the energy storage management within this context. While the expected value of energy not served has been traditionally employed to tackle routine failures, we also minimize the CVaR of energy not served to address high-impact, low-probability (HILP) events. We illustrate the performance of the proposed methodology with a 54-Bus system test case.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Simple Diesel Train Fuel Consumption Model for Real-Time Train Applications

This paper introduces a simple diesel train energy consumption model that calculates the instantaneous energy consumption using vehicle operational input variables, including the instantaneous speed, acceleration, and roadway grade, which can be easily obtained from global positioning system (GPS) loggers. The model was tested against real-world data and produced an error of -1.33% for all data and errors ranging from -12.4% to +8.0% for energy consumption of four train datasets amounting to a total of 5854 km trips. The study also validated the proposed model with separate data that were collected between Valencia and Cuenca, Spain, which had a total length of 198 km and found that the model was accurate, yielding a relative error of -1.55% for the total energy consumption. These results show that the proposed model can be used by train operators, transportation planners, policy makers, and environmental engineers to evaluate the energy consumption effects of train operational projects and train simulation within intermodal transportation planning tools.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Proposed Algorithm for Placement and Sizing of Generation and Storage Stations in Urban Environments

The placement of generation and storage stations (GSSs) in distribution grids has been extensively investigated. Most traditional methods are applicable to rural or homogeneous environments and do not account for external restrictions on generation placement in urban or semi-urban environments. In this article, we propose a method for generation placement considering externality constraints. New utility-scale generation in distribution grids potentially occupies footprint and interferes in areas with existing infrastructure with architectural, historical, or touristic value. Urban environments are often regulated by municipal legislation. The placement of utility-scale generation in urban landscapes is economically and physically restricted by such externalities, and existing methods for generation placement in distribution grids based on technical optimization fail to account for this important nuance. The proposed algorithm flexibly adapts to changes in government energy policies and priorities. The selection of the type of generation suitable for the power grid is left to the preference of external high-level stakeholders, such as urban planners, industry development leaders, and energy policymakers. The proposed algorithm is a unique tool for determining the placement and sizing of generation in realistic conditions in distribution grids; it is adaptable to urban externalities and sensitive to stakeholder preferences.

generation and storage station placement↗

A Comparative Study of Machine Learning Algorithms for Industry-Specific Freight Generation Model

According to Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the U.S. transportation system handled 14,329 million ton-miles of freight per day in 2020. Understanding the generation of these freight shipments is crucial for transportation researchers, planners, and policymakers to design and plan for a more efficient and connected freight transportation system. Traditionally, the freight generation modeling has been based on Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression, although more advanced Machine Learning (ML) algorithms have been evaluated and proven to have excellent performance in various transportation applications in recent years. Furthermore, one modeling approach applied for one industry might not always be applicable for another as their freight generation logics can be quite different. The objective of this study is to apply and evaluate alternative ML algorithms in the estimation of freight generation for each of 45 industry types. Seven alternative ML algorithms, along with the base OLS regression, were evaluated and compared. In addition, the study considered different combinations of variables in both the original and logarithmic form as well as hyperparameters of those ML algorithms in the model selection for each industry type. The results showed statistically significant improvements in the root mean square error reduction by the alternative ML algorithms over the OLS for over 80% of cases. The study suggests utilizing the alternative ML algorithms can reduce the root mean square error by about 30%, depending on industry types.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A system of shared autonomous vehicles for Chicago: Understanding the effects of geofencing the service

With autonomous vehicles (AVs) still in the testing phase, researchers and planners must resort to simulation techniques to explore possible futures regarding shared and automated mobility. An agent-based discrete-event transport simulator, POLARIS, is used in this study to simulate travel in the 20-county Chicago region with a shared AV (SAV) mobility option. Using this framework, the effect of an SAV fleet on system performance when constrained to serve within geofences is studied under four distinct scenarios: service restricted to the city, to the city plus suburban core, to the core plus exurban areas, and to the entire region — along with the choice of dynamic ridesharing (DRS) versus solo travel in an SAV. Results indicate that service areas need a balanced mix of trip generators and attractors, and an SAV fleet’s empty VMT (eVMT) can be noticeably reduced through suitable geofencing and DRS. Geofences can also help lower response times, reduce systemwide VMT across all modes, and ensure uniform access to SAVs. DRS is most useful in lowering VMT and %eVMT that arises from sprawled land development, but with insufficient demand to share rides, savings from the use of geofences is higher. Geofences targeting neighborhoods with high trip density bring about low response times and %eVMT, but fleet sizes in these regions need to be designed for uniformly low response times throughout a large region, as opposed to maximizing vehicle use in a 24-hour day.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Datasets for Widespread Residential Space Heating Electrification in Texas

In this experiment, we explore long term patterns in electricity demand driven by the dual effects of full electrification of space heating in Texas (by adoption of electric heat pumps), and climate change. We use a predictive model of electricity demand, climate projections, and an open source nodal power system (DC Optimal Power Flow) model of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. Heat pumps are a more energy efficient way of providing space heating and cooling in homes. We attempt to exhaustively investigate the impacts of full residential space heating electrification by adoption of heat pumps for the segment of Texas households that currently rely on fossil fuels (about 40%), while simultaneously incorporating climate change meteorological variables. We explore a range of scenarios of heat pump efficiency and climate uncertainty over a long period of future years (2020-2099). In total, the simulation experiment generates 1,280 simulation years of hourly data. We report and analyze results in form of impacts on residential load, total load, peak load, seasonality of peaking, and reliability measured by occurrence and frequency of loss of load events. While the experiment is for ERCOT, the insights and approach can be applied to other regions. The results from the analysis can inform system planners on a range of potential capacity requirements/ reliability implications and/or risks of full space heating electrification via the adoption of electric heat pumps, given the uncertainty in the scenarios/ climate futures. The dataset includes model output for residential, non residential and total load, and the results from the GO ERCOT model runs for 4 RCP Scenarios (RCP 4.5 Cooler, RCP 4.5 Hotter, RCP 8.5 Cooler, RCP 8.5 Hotter), 4 Heating electrification Scenarios (Base , Standard Efficiency HP, High Efficiency HP, Ultra-High Efficiency HP) over 80 years (2020-2099). The metrological variables at BA scale were weighted weighted using population projections consistent with the SSP3 scenario.

Climate Change↗