Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “predictive modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28

Parameter identification of material constants in a composite shell structure

One of the basic requirements in engineering analysis is the development of a mathematical model describing the system. Frequently comparisons with test data are used as a measurement of the adequacy of the model. An attempt is typically made to update or improve the model to provide a test verified analysis tool. System identification provides a systematic procedure for accomplishing this task. The terms system identification, parameter estimation, and model correlation all refer to techniques that use test information to update or verify mathematical models. The goal of system identification is to improve the correlation of model predictions with measured test data, and produce accurate, predictive models. For nonmetallic structures the modeling task is often difficult due to uncertainties in the elastic constants. A finite element model of the shell was created, which included uncertain orthotropic elastic constants. A modal survey test was then performed on the shell. The resulting modal data, along with the finite element model of the shell, were used in a Bayes estimation algorithm. This permitted the use of covariance matrices to weight the confidence in the initial parameter values as well as confidence in the measured test data. The estimation procedure also employed the concept of successive linearization to obtain an approximate solution to the original nonlinear estimation problem.

Martinez, David R.↗

Tensile Strength of Carbon Nanotubes Under Realistic Temperature and Strain Rate

Strain rate and temperature dependence of the tensile strength of single-wall carbon nanotubes has been investigated with molecular dynamics simulations. The tensile failure or yield strain is found to be strongly dependent on the temperature and strain rate. A transition state theory based predictive model is developed for the tensile failure of nanotubes. Based on the parameters fitted from high-strain rate and temperature dependent molecular dynamics simulations, the model predicts that a defect free micrometer long single-wall nanotube at 300 K, stretched with a strain rate of 1%/hour, fails at about 9 plus or minus 1% tensile strain. This is in good agreement with recent experimental findings.

Wei, Chen-Yu↗

AIR Model Preflight Analysis

The atmospheric ionizing radiation (AIR) ER-2 preflight analysis, one of the first attempts to obtain a relatively complete measurement set of the high-altitude radiation level environment, is described in this paper. The primary thrust is to characterize the atmospheric radiation and to define dose levels at high-altitude flight. A secondary thrust is to develop and validate dosimetric techniques and monitoring devices for protecting aircrews. With a few chosen routes, we can measure the experimental results and validate the AIR model predictions. Eventually, as more measurements are made, we gain more understanding about the hazardous radiation environment and acquire more confidence in the prediction models.

Tai, H.↗

Atomic Oxygen Interactions With Silicone Contamination on Spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit Studied

Silicones have been widely used on spacecraft as potting compounds, adhesives, seals, gaskets, hydrophobic surfaces, and atomic oxygen protective coatings. Contamination of optical and thermal control surfaces on spacecraft in low Earth orbit (LEO) has been an ever-present problem as a result of the interaction of atomic oxygen with volatile species from silicones and hydrocarbons onboard spacecraft. These interactions can deposit a contaminant that is a risk to spacecraft performance because it can form an optically absorbing film on the surfaces of Sun sensors, star trackers, or optical components or can increase the solar absorptance of thermal control surfaces. The transmittance, absorptance, and reflectance of such contaminant films seem to vary widely from very transparent SiOx films to much more absorbing SiOx-based films that contain hydrocarbons. At the NASA Glenn Research Center, silicone contamination that was oxidized by atomic oxygen has been examined from LEO spacecraft (including the Long Duration Exposure Facility and the Mir space station solar arrays) and from ground laboratory LEO simulations. The findings resulted in the development of predictive models that may help explain the underlying issues and effects. Atomic oxygen interactions with silicone volatiles and mixtures of silicone and hydrocarbon volatiles produce glassy SiOx-based contaminant coatings. The addition of hydrocarbon volatiles in the presence of silicone volatiles appears to cause much more absorbing (and consequently less transmitting) contaminant films than when no hydrocarbon volatiles are present. On the basis of the LDEF and Mir results, conditions of high atomic oxygen flux relative to low contaminant flux appear to result in more transparent contaminant films than do conditions of low atomic oxygen flux with high contaminant flux. Modeling predictions indicate that the deposition of contaminant films early in a LEO flight should depend much more on atomic oxygen flux than it does later in a mission.

Banks, Bruce A.↗

A Dual-Plane PIV Study of Turbulent Heat Transfer Flows

Thin film cooling is a widely used technique in turbomachinery and rocket propulsion applications, where cool injection air protects a surface from hot combustion gases. The injected air typically has a different velocity and temperature from the free stream combustion flow, yielding a flow field with high turbulence and large temperature differences. These thin film cooling flows provide a good test case for evaluating computational model prediction capabilities. The goal of this work is to provide a database of flow field measurements for validating computational flow prediction models applied to turbulent heat transfer flows. In this work we describe the application of a Dual-Plane Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) technique in a thin film cooling wind tunnel facility where the injection air stream velocity and temperatures are varied in order to provide benchmark turbulent heat transfer flow field measurements. The Dual-Plane PIV data collected include all three components of velocity and all three components of vorticity, spanning the width of the tunnel at multiple axial measurement planes.

Turbulent heat transfer↗

Applications of Parallel-Element, Embedded Mesh-Cap Acoustic Liner Concepts

This study explores progress achieved with 2DOF, 3DOF, and MDOF acoustic liners constructed with mesh caps embedded within a honeycomb core. These liner configurations offer potential for broadband noise reduction, and are suitable for conventional aircraft implementation. Samples for each configuration are tested in the NASA normal incidence tube and grazing flow impedance tube, with and without a wire mesh facesheet. Impedances based on these measured data compare favorably with those predicted using a transmission line impedance prediction model. Predicted impedances are then used as input for an aeroacoustic propagation code to compute axial acoustic pressure distributions in the grazing flow tube. These predicted distributions compare favorably with the corresponding measured distributions at frequencies away from the frequency of peak attenuation, but suffer slight degradation for frequencies very near the peak attenuation frequency, where the predicted results are sensitive to input impedance changes. As expected, the noise reduction frequency range increases as more degrees of freedom are included. Although the specific results achieved herein may differ from those that would be achieved with other 2DOF, 3DOF, and MDOF liners, this comparison highlights some of the key features that can be exploited in the design of parallel-element, embedded mesh-cap liners.

Jones, M. G.↗

Spatiotemporal Monitoring of Hydrilla [Hydrilla verticillata (L. f.) Royle] to Aid Management Actions

Hydrilla is an invasive aquatic plant that has rapidly spread through many inland water bodies across the globe by outcompeting native aquatic plants. Drinking water supply, power generation, and recreational use of lakes are threatened by the spread of this invasive species. Moreover, hydrilla serves as a host for an epiphytic, toxic cyanobacteria known to be the causative agent of the neurodegenerative disease called avian vacuolar myelinopathy, which affects waterfowl, raptors, and amphibians. The early detection of hydrilla infestation is very important to reduce the costs associated with control and removal efforts of this invasive species. Therefore, this study was aimed at developing a rapid, frequent, and large-scale tool for monitoring and predicting spatial extent of hydrilla habitat. This was achieved by integrating in situ and Landsat 8 OLI satellite data for Lake J. Strom Thurmond, the largest US Army Corps of Engineers Lake east of the Mississippi River located on the Georgia/South Caroline border. The predictive model incorporated remote sensing reflectance, Secchi disk depth (SDD), light attenuation coefficient (Kd), maximum depth of colonization (Zc), and percentage of light available through water column (PLW). The model predicted ideal habitat for hydrilla featuring high SDD, low values of Kd, high Zc and PLW. Final analysis showed that hydrilla starts growing in April, reaches peak around October, begins retreating in the following months, and disappears in February. Additionally, physical meteorological factors were analyzed and were found to be closely associated with hydrilla extent. Management agencies can use these results to not only to plan future removal efforts, but also evaluate and adapt their current mitigation efforts.

Percentage of light available through the water co↗

Comparison of the Nimbus-4 BUV ozone data with the Ames two-dimensional model

Predictions by the Ames two-dimensional model of altitude, latitude and seasonal variations in ozone distribution are compared with the first two years of Nimbus 4 backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) measurements in a preliminary attempt at model verification. The ozone observations consist of mixing ratios on the 1-, 2-, 5-, and 10-mbar pressure surfaces zonally and time averaged to obtain seasonal means for 1970 and 1971. The model is based on chemical reaction and photolysis rate constants recommended by the NASA Panel for Data Evaluation (1979), diurnally averaged for latitudes from 80 deg N to 80 deg S and altitudes from 0 to 60 km with 5 deg horizontal and 2.5 km vertical grid spacings. The large altitude, latitude and seasonal variations observed in the data are found to agree well with model predictions. Examination of the sensitivity of the model predictions to various assumed parameters indicates that improvements in agreement may be obtained by variations of the odd chlorine mixing ratio, odd-nitrogen level and transport parameters.

Borucki, W. J.↗

Microgravity Geyser and Flow Field Prediction

Modeling and prediction of flow fields and geyser formation in microgravity cryogenic propellant tanks was investigated. A computational simulation was used to reproduce the test matrix of experimental results performed by other investigators, as well as to model the flows in a larger tank. An underprediction of geyser height by the model led to a sensitivity study to determine if variations in surface tension coefficient, contact angle, or jet pipe turbulence significantly influence the simulations. It was determined that computational geyser height is not sensitive to slight variations in any of these items. An existing empirical correlation based on dimensionless parameters was re-examined in an effort to improve the accuracy of geyser prediction. This resulted in the proposal for a re-formulation of two dimensionless parameters used in the correlation; the non-dimensional geyser height and the Bond number. It was concluded that the new non-dimensional geyser height shows little promise. Although further data will be required to make a definite judgement, the reformulation of the Bond number provided correlations that are more accurate and appear to be more general than the previously established correlation.

Hochstein, J. I.↗

Leveraging public AI tools to explore systems biology resources in mathematical modeling

Predictive mathematical modeling is an essential part of systems biology and is interconnected with information management. Systems biology information is often stored in specialized formats to facilitate data storage and analysis. These formats are not designed for easy human readability and thus require specialized software to visualize and interpret results. Therefore, comprehending modeling and underlying networks and pathways is contingent on mastering systems biology tools, which is particularly challenging for users with no or little background in data science or system biology. To address this challenge, we investigated the usage of public Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools in exploring systems biology resources in mathematical modeling. We tested public AI’s understanding of mathematics in models, related systems biology data, and the complexity of model structures. Our approach can enhance the accessibility of systems biology for non-system biologists and help them understand systems biology without a deep learning curve.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Generating synthetic signaling networks for in silico modeling studies

Predictive models of signaling pathways have proven to be difficult to develop. Reasons include the uncertainty in the number of species, the complexity in species’ interactions, and the sparseness and uncertainty in experimental data. Traditional approaches to developing mechanistic models rely on collecting experimental data and fitting a single model to that data. This approach works for simple systems but has proven unreliable for complex systems such as biological signaling networks. For example, uncertainty and sparseness of the data often result in overfitted models that have little predictive value beyond recapitulating the experimental data itself. Thus, there is a need to develop new approaches to create predictive mechanistic models of complex systems. However, to determine the effectiveness of any new algorithm, a baseline model is needed to test its performance. To meet this need, we developed a method for generating artificial synthetic networks that are reasonably realistic and thus can be treated as ground truth models. These synthetic models can then be used to generate synthetic data for developing and testing algorithms designed to recover the underlying network topology and associated parameters. Here, we describe a simple approach for generating synthetic signaling networks that can be used for this purpose.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Audible Noise Modeling of Hydrogen Release Sonic Hazards in Rail Maintenance Facilities

This study implemented validated literature models to predict audible noise due to pressurized gaseous hydrogen releases through a thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) and attached vent stack. A literature survey discovered limited hydrogen-specific noise prediction models validated by experiments. However, empirical noise prediction models for air flowing through pipes and valves were identified. These empirical models were used to predict noise levels and compared against hydrogen noise data reported in two studies: one experimental study of noise from hydrogen leaking through a pipe and another which modeled hydrogen flowing through a solenoid valve during a fuel cell vehicle refueling. The valve flow model was then applied to predict noise for hydrogen releases through a TPRD. Results show that hydrogen releases through a TPRD can produce harmful noise levels varying from 134 to 150 dB. However, further model validation and additional experimental data are needed to improve prediction confidence and accuracy.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A predictive pilot model for STOL aircraft landing

An optimal control approach has been used to model pilot performance during STOL flare and landing. The model is used to predict pilot landing performance for three STOL configurations, each having a different level of automatic control augmentation. Model predictions are compared with flight simulator data. It is concluded that the model can be effective design tool for studying analytically the effects of display modifications, different stability augmentation systems, and proposed changes in the landing area geometry.

Kleinman, D. L.↗

Predictive performance models and multiple task performance

Five models that predict how performance of multiple tasks will interact in complex task scenarios are discussed. The models are shown in terms of the assumptions they make about human operator divided attention. The different assumptions about attention are then empirically validated in a multitask helicopter flight simulation. It is concluded from this simulation that the most important assumption relates to the coding of demand level of different component tasks.

Wickens, Christopher D.↗

The Use of Behavior Models for Predicting Complex Operations

Modeling and simulation (M&S) plays an important role when complex human-system notions are being proposed, developed and tested within the system design process. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) as an agency uses many different types of M&S approaches for predicting human-system interactions, especially when it is early in the development phase of a conceptual design. NASA Ames Research Center possesses a number of M&S capabilities ranging from airflow, flight path models, aircraft models, scheduling models, human performance models (HPMs), and bioinformatics models among a host of other kinds of M&S capabilities that are used for predicting whether the proposed designs will benefit the specific mission criteria. The Man-Machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) is a NASA ARC HPM software tool that integrates many models of human behavior with environment models, equipment models, and procedural / task models. The challenge to model comprehensibility is heightened as the number of models that are integrated and the requisite fidelity of the procedural sets are increased. Model transparency is needed for some of the more complex HPMs to maintain comprehensibility of the integrated model performance. This will be exemplified in a recent MIDAS v5 application model and plans for future model refinements will be presented.

Gore, Brian F.↗

Direction angle sensitivity of agricultural field backscatter with Airsar data

The direction angle sensitivity of agricultural field backscatter is studied. The direction angle is defined as the angle between the incident plane and the perpendicular to the row direction. Maximum backscatter power from an angricultural field is expected to occur when the furrow induced slopes are oriented towards the radar, i.e., for a 0 deg direction angle. This effect is known as the cardinal effect. Because of the way the looks are formed in the NASA/JPL airborne synthetic aperture radar (AIRSAR) processor, each look corresponds to a slightly different squint angle. This provides a unique data set to analyze the cardinal effect, as it allows simultaneous observations of the backscatter of a field for sixteen different direction angles. The backscatter variations of the agricultural fields with direction angle at P-, L-, and C-bands is described. The observed variations in backscatter are compared with model predictions. The model predicts that the maximum backscatter occurs for a 0 deg direction angle, but underestimates the backscatter variations with direction angle by more than 10 dB.

Dubois, Pascale C.↗

Ocean-Science Mission Needs: Real-Time AUV Data for Command, Control, and Model Inputs

Predictive models for tides, hydrodynamics, and bio-optical properties affecting the visibility and buoyancy of coastal waters are needed to evaluate the safety of personnel and equipment engaged in maritime operations under potentially hazardous conditions. Predicted currents can be markedly different for two-layer systems affected by terrestrial runoff than for well-mixed conditions because the layering decouples the surface and bottom Ekman layers and rectifies the current response to oscillatory upwelling-and downwelling-favorable winds. Standard ocean models (e.g. Princeton Ocean Model) require initial-and boundary data on the physical and optical properties of the multilayered water column to provide accurate simulations of heat budgets and circulation. Two observational systems are designed to measure vertically structured conditions on the West Florida Shelf (WFS): a tethered buoy network and an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) observational system. The AUV system is described with a focus on the observational systems that challenge or limit the communications command and control network for various types of measurement programs. These include vertical oscillatory missions on shelf transects to observe the optical and hydrographic properties of the water column, and bottom-following missions for measuring the bottom albedo. Models of light propagation, absorption, and conversion to heat as well as determination of the buoyancy terms for physical models require these measurements. High data rates associated with video bottom imagery are the most challenging for the real-time, command and control communications system, but they are met through a combination of loss-less and lossy data-compression methods, depending upon the data-rate of the radio links.

Carder, Kendall L.↗

An Initial Vibro-Acoustic Model for Predicting Electric Motor Noise

A system-level tool to predict electric motor noise, suitable for trade studies of eVTOL and UAM aircraft, does not exist. This work describes the ongoing effort to develop such a tool. It utilizes a 3 phase prediction routine that models the electro-magnetic interactions of the electric motor, the resulting structural vibrations of the motor rotor, and finally the acoustic propagation generated by those structural vibrations.

Electric Motor Noise↗