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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28

Cross Sections for Coherent Elastic and Inelastic Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering

The prospects of extracting new physics signals in coherent elastic neutrino–nucleus scattering (CEνNS) processes are limited by the precision with which the underlying nuclear structure physics, embedded in the weak nuclear form factor, is known. We present calculations of charge and weak nuclear form factors and CEνNS cross sections on 12C, 16O, 40Ar, 56Fe and 208Pb nuclei. We obtain the proton and neutron densities, and charge and weak form factors by solving Hartree–Fock (HF) equations with a Skyrme (SkE2) nuclear potential. We validate our approach by comparing 208Pb and 40Ar charge form factor predictions with available elastic electron scattering data. Since CEνNS experiments at stopped-pion sources are also well suited to measure inelastic charged–current and neutral–current neutrino–nucleus cross sections, we also present calculations for these processes, incorporating a continuum Random Phase Approximation (CRPA) description on top of the HF–SkE2 picture of the nucleus. Providing both coherent as well as inelastic cross sections in a consistent framework, we aim at obtaining a reliable and detailed comparison of the strength of these processes in the energy region below 100 MeV. Furthermore, we attempt to gauge the level of theoretical uncertainty pertaining to the description of the 40Ar form factor and CEνNS cross sections by comparing relative differences between recent microscopic nuclear theory and widely-used phenomenological form factor predictions. Future precision measurements of CEνNS will potentially help in constraining these nuclear structure details that will in turn improve prospects of extracting new physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Alert Classification for the ALeRCE Broker System: The Light Curve Classifier

We present the first version of the Automatic Learning for the Rapid Classification of Events (ALeRCE) broker light curve classifier. ALeRCE is currently processing the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) alert stream, in preparation for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. The ALeRCE light curve classifier uses variability features computed from the ZTF alert stream and colors obtained from AllWISE and ZTF photometry. We apply a balanced random forest algorithm with a two-level scheme where the top level classifies each source as periodic, stochastic, or transient, and the bottom level further resolves each of these hierarchical classes among 15 total classes. This classifier corresponds to the first attempt to classify multiple classes of stochastic variables (including core- and host-dominated active galactic nuclei, blazars, young stellar objects, and cataclysmic variables) in addition to different classes of periodic and transient sources, using real data. We created a labeled set using various public catalogs (such as the Catalina Surveys and Gaia DR2 variable stars catalogs, and the Million Quasars catalog), and we classify all objects with ≥6 g-band or ≥6 r-band detections in ZTF (868,371 sources as of 2020 June 9), providing updated classifications for sources with new alerts every day. For the top level we obtain macro-averaged precision and recall scores of 0.96 and 0.99, respectively, and for the bottom level we obtain macro-averaged precision and recall scores of 0.57 and 0.76, respectively. Updated classifications from the light curve classifier can be found at the ALeRCE Explorer website (http://alerce.online).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Characterizing filamentary magnetic structures in counter-streaming plasmas by Fourier analysis of proton images

Proton imaging is a powerful tool for probing electromagnetic fields in a plasma, providing a path-integrated map of the field topology. However, in cases where the field structure is highly inhomogeneous, inferring spatial properties of the underlying field from proton images can be difficult. This problem is exemplified by recent experiments, which used proton imaging to probe the filamentary magnetic field structures produced by the Weibel instability in collisionless counterstreaming plasmas. In this paper, we perform analytical and numerical analyses of proton images of systems containing many magnetic filaments. We find that, in general, the features observed on proton images do not directly correspond to the spacing between magnetic filaments (the magnetic wavelength) as has previously been assumed and that they instead correspond to the filament size. Furthermore, we demonstrate this result by Fourier analysis of synthetic proton images for many randomized configurations of magnetic filaments. Our results help guide the interpretation of experimental proton images of filamentary magnetic structures in plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Numerical solution of the problem of flame propagation by the use of the random element method

A numerical, grid-free algorithm is presented for one-dimensional reaction-diffusion model of laminar flame propagation in premixed gases. It is based on the random element method we developed for the analysis of diffusional processes. The effect of combustion is taken into account by applying the principle of fractional steps to separate the process of diffusion, modeled by the random walk of computational elements, from the exothermic effects of chemical reaction, monitoring their strength. The validity of the algorithm is demonstrated by application to flame propagation problems for which exact solutions exist. The flame speed evaluated by its use oscillates around the exact value at a relatively small amplitude, while the temperature and species concentration profiles are self-correcting in their convergence to the exact solution. A satisfactory resolution is obtained by the use of quite a small number of computational elements which automatically adjust their distribution of fit sharp gradients.

Ghoniem, A. F.↗

Using Markov Models of Fault Growth Physics and Environmental Stresses to Optimize Control Actions

A generalized Markov chain representation of fault dynamics is presented for the case that available modeling of fault growth physics and future environmental stresses can be represented by two independent stochastic process models. A contrived but representatively challenging example will be presented and analyzed, in which uncertainty in the modeling of fault growth physics is represented by a uniformly distributed dice throwing process, and a discrete random walk is used to represent uncertain modeling of future exogenous loading demands to be placed on the system. A finite horizon dynamic programming algorithm is used to solve for an optimal control policy over a finite time window for the case that stochastic models representing physics of failure and future environmental stresses are known, and the states of both stochastic processes are observable by implemented control routines. The fundamental limitations of optimization performed in the presence of uncertain modeling information are examined by comparing the outcomes obtained from simulations of an optimizing control policy with the outcomes that would be achievable if all modeling uncertainties were removed from the system.

Bole, Brian↗

The Fall Speed Variability of Similarly Sized Ice Particle Aggregates

The terminal velocity ( V t ) of ice hydrometeors is of high importance to atmospheric modeling. V t is governed by the physical characteristics of a hydrometeor, including mass and projected area, as well as environmental conditions. When liquid hydrometeors coalesce to form larger hydrometeors, the resulting hydrometeor can readily be characterized by its spherical or near-spherical shape. For ice hydrometeors, it is more complicated because of the variability of ice shapes possible in the atmosphere as well as the inherent randomness in the aggregation process, which leads to highly variable characteristics. The abundance of atmospheric processes affecting ice particle dimensional characteristics creates potential for highly variable V t for ice particles that are predicted or measured to be of the “same size.” In this article we explore the variability of ice hydrometeor V t both theoretically and through the use of experimental observations. Theoretically, the variability in V t is investigated by analyzing the microphysical characteristics of randomly aggregated hexagonal shapes. The modeled dimensional characteristics are then compared to aircraft probe measurements to constrain the variability in atmospheric ice hydrometeor V t . Results show that the spread in V t can be represented with Gaussian distributions relative to a mean. Variability expressed as the full width at half maximum of the normalized Gaussian probability distribution function is around 20%, with somewhat higher values associated with larger particle sizes and warmer temperatures. Field campaigns where mostly convective clouds were sampled displayed low variability, while Arctic and midlatitude winter campaigns showed broader V t spectra.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Software for Generating Strip Maps from SAR Data

Jurassicprok is a computer program that generates strip-map digital elevation models and other data products from raw data acquired by an airborne synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) system. This software can process data from a variety of airborne SAR systems but is designed especially for the GeoSAR system, which is a dual-frequency (P- and X-band), single-pass interferometric SAR system for measuring elevation both at the bare ground surface and top of the vegetation canopy. Jurassicprok is a modified version of software developed previously for airborne-interferometric- SAR applications. The modifications were made to accommodate P-band interferometric processing, remove approximations that are not generally valid, and reduce processor-induced mapping errors to the centimeter level. Major additions and other improvements over the prior software include the following: a) A new, highly efficient multi-stage-modified wave-domain processing algorithm for accurately motion compensating ultra-wideband data; b) Adaptive regridding algorithms based on estimated noise and actual measured topography to reduce noise while maintaining spatial resolution; c) Exact expressions for height determination from interferogram data; d) Fully calibrated volumetric correlation data based on rigorous removal of geometric and signal-to-noise decorrelation terms; e) Strip range-Doppler image output in user-specified Doppler coordinates; f) An improved phase-unwrapping and absolute-phase-determination algorithm; g) A more flexible user interface with many additional processing options; h) Increased interferogram filtering options; and i) Ability to use disk space instead of random- access memory for some processing steps.

Hensley, Scott↗

Processing Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in Experimental Data From Sparse Replicate Tests of Stochastic Systems for Real-Space Model Validation

This paper presents a practical methodology for propagating and processing uncertainties associated with random measurement and estimation errors (that vary from test-to-test) and systematic measurement and estimation errors (uncertain but similar from test-to-test) in inputs and outputs of replicate tests to characterize response variability of stochastically varying test units. Also treated are test condition control variability from test-to-test and sampling uncertainty due to limited numbers of replicate tests. These aleatory variabilities and epistemic uncertainties result in uncertainty on computed statistics of output response quantities. The methodology was developed in the context of processing experimental data for “real-space” (RS) model validation comparisons against model-predicted statistics and uncertainty thereof. The methodology is flexible and sufficient for many types of experimental and data uncertainty, offering the most extensive data uncertainty quantification (UQ) treatment of any model validation method the authors are aware of. It handles both interval and probabilistic uncertainty descriptions and can be performed with relatively little computational cost through use of simple and effective dimension- and order-adaptive polynomial response surfaces in a Monte Carlo (MC) uncertainty propagation approach. A key feature of the progressively upgraded response surfaces is that they enable estimation of propagation error contributed by the surrogate model. Sensitivity analysis of the relative contributions of the various uncertainty sources to the total uncertainty of statistical estimates is also presented. Finally, the methodologies are demonstrated on real experimental validation data involving all the mentioned sources and types of error and uncertainty in five replicate tests of pressure vessels heated and pressurized to failure. Simple spreadsheet procedures are used for all processing operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Equilibration and Diffusion for a Dynamical Lorentz Gas

We consider a model of a dynamical Lorentz gaz: a single particle is moving in ℝ{sup d} through an array of fixed and soft scatterers each possessing an internal degree of freedom coupled to the particle. Assuming the initial velocity is sufficiently high and modelling the parameters of the scatterers as random variables, we describe the evolution of the kinetic energy of the particle by a Markov chain for which each step corresponds to a collision. We show that the momentum distribution of the particle approaches a Maxwell–Boltzmann distribution with effective temperature T such that k{sub B}T corresponds to an average of the scatterers’ kinetic energy.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Survey on stochastic distribution systems: A full probability density function control theory with potential applications

Complex systems seen either in general engineering practice or economics are subjected to ever increased uncertainties that are mostly represented as random variables or parameters, and the characteristics of random variables are represented by their probability density functions (PDFs). Controlling their PDFs means to shape their stochastic distributions and in general it would provide a full treatment for system analysis and operational control and optimization. This leads to the development of stochastic distribution control (SDC) systems theory in the past decades, where the original aim of the controller design is to realize a shape control of the distributions of certain random variables in their PDFs sense for some engineering processes. Indeed, once the PDFs of these random variables or parameters are used to describe their distribution characters, the control task is to obtain control signals so that the output PDFs of stochastic systems are made to follow their target PDFs. The subject of SDC was initially originated for non-Gaussian stochastic control systems design but has found a wide spectrum of applications in general systems in terms of data-driven modeling, analysis, signal processing (filtering), data mining via multivariable statistics, decision-making (optimization) for systems subjected to uncertainties and even in economics. In this context, SDC constitutes an effective primer tool for complex system analysis, control and operational optimizations. In this review paper, a detailed survey of the developments on the research of SDC systems will be made together with their wide spectrum applications and future perspectives.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Characterization and prediction of the electromechanical wear of contact tips during wire arc additive manufacturing of 316L stainless steel

Here, this study seeks to better understand the degradation of the contact tip with respect to WAAM for a 316L wire electrode as well as explore methods of monitoring the contact tip state from process data. The contact tip, a consumable component, positions the wire and serves as the electrical contact surface between the wire electrode and the welding power supply. The wear of the contact tip was characterized in terms of material loss and material contamination for a set of tips worn to discrete levels as measured by the amount of wire fed or arc time. Geometrical characterization found a 49% increase in the bore exit area at 180 meters of wire fed. Machine learning models were developed to predict the relative bore exit area of the contact tip from arc-based process data and a random forest classifier exhibited favorable performance with a cross-validated f1-score of 0.84. The regression architecture implemented a multi-layer perceptron with the ability to predict the relative exit area with an $R^2$ score of 0.75. Key features used in the prediction include the standard deviation of the voltage and the time between shorts.

Contact tip wear↗

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Reverse Osmosis (RO) are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in (ultra-filtration) UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) metric. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent covariates across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is studied for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches across increasing forecast horizons. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing RO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks by accurately estimating membrane fouling trends, thereby enhancing process efficiency and long-term reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Ultra-filtration(UF) units are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square (RMSE) metric. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing CCRO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks that enhance process efficiency and reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗

NuQKD: A Modular Quantum Key Distribution Simulation Framework for Engineering Applications

Abstract An experimental Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) implementation requires advanced costly hardware, unavailable in most research environments, making protocol testing and performance evaluation complicated. This has been a major motivation for the development of QKD simulation frameworks, to allow researchers to obtain insight before proceeding into practical implementations. Several simulators have been introduced over the recent years. However, only four are publicly available, only one of which models equipment imperfections. Currently, no open‐source simulator includes all following capabilities: channel attenuation modelling, equipment imperfections and effects on key rates, estimation of elapsed time during classical and quantum‐ channel processes, use of truly random binary sequences for qubits and measurement bases, shared ‐bit fraction customization. In this paper, we present NuQKD, an open‐ source modular, intuitive simulator, featuring all the above capabilities. NuQKD establishes communication between two computer terminals, accepts custom user inputs (iterations, raw key size, attacker interception rate etc.) and evaluates the sifted key, Quantum Bit Error Rate (QBER), elapsed communication time, and more. NuQKD capabilities include optical fiber and free ‐space simulation, modeling of equipment/channel imperfections, bitstrings from True Random Number Generators, decoy‐state protocol support, and automated evaluation of performance metrics. We expect NuQKD to enable convenient and accurate representation of actual experimental conditions.

Gkouliaras, Konstantinos↗

On an asymptotic viscosity solution property of solutions of discrete Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equations

In this paper, we show that a proper limit of solutions of discrete Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (dHJB) equations in a random walk model becomes a viscosity solution of a Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) variational inequality in a continuous-time geometric Brownian model. HJB variational inequalities are used to analyze singular stochastic control problems in mathematical finance. By our result, with the help of dHJB equations, we can obtain viscosity solutions of HJB variational inequalities which are usually identified with the value functions of the singular stochastic control problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Towards fast and accurate predictions of radio frequency power deposition and current profile via data-driven modelling: applications to lower hybrid current drive

Three machine learning techniques (multilayer perceptron, random forest and Gaussian process) provide fast surrogate models for lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) simulations. A single GENRAY/CQL3D simulation without radial diffusion of fast electrons requires several minutes of wall-clock time to complete, which is acceptable for many purposes, but too slow for integrated modelling and real-time control applications. The machine learning models use a database of more than 16 000 GENRAY/CQL3D simulations for training, validation and testing. Latin hypercube sampling methods ensure that the database covers the range of nine input parameters ( $n_{e0}$ , $T_{e0}$ , $I_p$ , $B_t$ , $R_0$ , $n_{\|}$ , $Z_{{\rm eff}}$ , $V_{{\rm loop}}$ and $P_{{\rm LHCD}}$ ) with sufficient density in all regions of parameter space. The surrogate models reduce the inference time from minutes to $\sim$ ms with high accuracy across the input parameter space.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Global Sensitivity Analysis Using the Ultra‐Low Resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model

Abstract For decades, Arctic temperatures have increased twice as fast as average global temperatures. As a first step toward quantifying parametric uncertainty in Arctic climate, we performed a variance‐based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled, ultra‐low resolution (ULR) configuration of version 1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). Specifically, we quantified the sensitivity of six quantities of interests (QOIs), which characterize changes in Arctic climate over a 75 year period, to uncertainties in nine model parameters spanning the sea ice, atmosphere, and ocean components of E3SMv1. Sensitivity indices for each QOI were computed with a Gaussian process emulator using 139 random realizations of the random parameters and fixed preindustrial forcing. Uncertainties in the atmospheric parameters in the Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) scheme were found to have the most impact on sea ice status and the larger Arctic climate. Our results demonstrate the importance of conducting sensitivity analyses with fully coupled climate models. The ULR configuration makes such studies computationally feasible today due to its low computational cost. When advances in computational power and modeling algorithms enable the tractable use of higher‐resolution models, our results will provide a baseline that can quantify the impact of model resolution on the accuracy of sensitivity indices. Moreover, the confidence intervals provided by our study, which we used to quantify the impact of the number of model evaluations on the accuracy of sensitivity estimates, have the potential to inform the computational resources needed for future sensitivity studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗