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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28
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DOE OSTI2024

EPCAPE-Dalhousie Field Campaign Report

This project supported the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE), which aimed to characterize the extent, radiative properties, aerosol interactions, and precipitation of stratocumulus clouds in the Eastern Pacific coastal region of La Jolla, California. Given the frequent anthropogenic aerosols emitted into this region, characterization of this important coastal cloud region and the aerosol impact on the cloud characteristics will improve the understanding of aerosol indirect effects and its representation in global climate models. This specific project deployed the fog droplet monitor (FM-120, Droplet Measurement Technologies) at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography’s Mt. Soledad site from 16 February 2023 to 15 February 2024. This instrument measured droplet number size spectra between 2 and 50 microns, from which droplet number concentration, liquid water content, and effective diameter were calculated. These measurements will be used to characterize the seasonal variability of clouds at Mt. Soledad and investigate differences in cloud properties under regional polluted and clean marine conditions. The collected data will soon be posted as part of the digital collection for EPCAPE data hosted by the University of California, San Diego (Russell et al. 2023).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deciphering the capricious precipitation response: irrigation impact in the North China Plain

Intensive irrigation in the North China Plain (NCP) raises environmental concerns, yet its climate impacts remain inconsistent among current modeling studies. These inconsistencies may arise from deficiencies in existing models. To better capture irrigation impact, we employed a recently improved irrigation model tailored for the NCP, which significantly enhances simulations of crop growth and irrigation application. Results reveal that irrigation exerts competing effects on precipitation: enhancing it in May and June by increasing rainfall frequency and intensity, while suppressing it in July and August by reducing intensity. Spatial precipitation changes correlate with upper-tropospheric humidity, while inter-annual changes link to geopotential height and wind anomalies. This suggests that irrigation-induced surface cooling and moisturizing modulate atmospheric thermodynamic and dynamic structures, influencing convective precipitation unevenly across regions and time, leading to complex precipitation changes. These findings highlight the complexity of irrigation impacts and emphasize the need for improved land representation in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing South American Water and Climate Science Through Multi-Decadal Convection-Permitting Modeling

The South America Affinity Group (SAAG) was established in early 2019 by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Water Systems Program as a community effort focused on improving hydroclimate science over South America. SAAG supports large research efforts such as the ANDEX Regional Hydroclimate Program as well as individual research groups. The group started with a dozen members and quickly grew to over 100 participants from more than ten countries. For the past four years, the SAAG has been meeting online every two weeks and has organized sessions at international conferences such as the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting and the Convection-Permitting Climate Workshop. At the core of the SAAG effort are two multi-decadal convection permitting (CP) model simulations with 4-km grid spacing for historical and future climates over the South American continent. Additionally, a major observational data collection effort has been undertaken, including in-situ station data from South American meteorological and water services, gridded products, satellite-based observations, and field campaign data. In conclusion, this article discusses the research needs and scientific goals that drive this community of scientists with diverse backgrounds and interests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A database of hourly wind speed and modeled generation for US wind plants based on three meteorological models

Abstract In 2022, wind generation accounted for ~10% of total electricity generation in the United States. As wind energy accounts for a greater portion of total energy, understanding geographic and temporal variation in wind generation is key to many planning, operational, and research questions. However, in-situ observations of wind speed are expensive to make and rarely shared publicly. Meteorological models are commonly used to estimate wind speeds, but vary in quality and are often challenging to access and interpret. The Plant-Level US multi-model WIND and generation (PLUSWIND) data repository helps to address these challenges. PLUSWIND provides wind speeds and estimated generation on an hourly basis at almost all wind plants across the contiguous United States from 2018–2021. The repository contains wind speeds and generation based on three different meteorological models: ERA5, MERRA2, and HRRR. Data are publicly accessible in simple csv files. Modeled generation is compared to regional and plant records, which highlights model biases and errors and how they differ by model, across regions, and across time frames.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A convection-permitting dynamically downscaled dataset over the Midwestern United States

Climate change is expected to have far-reaching effects at both the global and regional scale, but local effects are difficult to determine from coarse-resolution climate studies. Dynamical downscaling can provide insight into future climate projections on local scales. Here, we present a new dynamically downscaled dataset for Indiana and the surrounding regions. Output from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1 is downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Simulations are run with a 24-hr reinitialization strategy and a 12-hr spin-up window. WRF output is bias corrected to the National Centers for Environmental Protection/National Center for Atmospheric Research 40-year Reanalysis project (NCEP) using a modified quantile mapping method. Bias-corrected 2-m air temperature and accumulated precipitation are the initial focus, with additional variables planned for future releases. Regional climate change signals agree well with larger global studies, and local fine-scaled features are visible in the resulting dataset, such as urban heat islands, frontal passages, and orographic temperature gradients. This high-resolution climate dataset could be used for down-stream applications focused on impacts across the domain, such as urban planning, energy usage, water resources, agriculture and public health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wetter California Projected by CMIP6 Models With Observational Constraints Under a High GHG Emission Scenario

As the world's fifth-largest economy entity, California (CA) is vulnerable to climate changes especially the magnitude of winter (wet season) precipitation that is closely linked to regional drought severity, vegetation growth, and wildfire activities. However, the fate of CA precipitation in the future remains highly uncertain, for example, the state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) projected –3% to +42% and –27% to +63% precipitation changes in northern and central-southern CA, respectively, under the high greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario (SSP585). In this work, we applied the Pareto optimality concept and used observed teleconnection patterns (causal relationships between ocean regions and CA precipitation) to mechanistically constrain CMIP6 projected CA precipitations. We estimated that precipitation will robustly increase by 0.4–1.3 mm d –1 (10–34%) over northern CA and increase by 0.1–0.5 mm d –1 (7–32%) over central-southern CA by the end of the 21st century compared with present-day. Up to 71% of ESM projection uncertainties were reduced mainly due to the strong and consistent causal relationship between North American west coast sea level pressure and CA precipitation in both observations and CMIP6 models. Our results suggest that teleconnection patterns are powerful mechanistic constraints that can help explain and reduce uncertainties in ESM projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing concurrent effects of climate change on hydropower supply, electricity demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Basin of China

Hydropower importantly provides flexible low-carbon electricity, however, climate change will affect the hydropower system through altering hydrologic regimes while also affecting electricity demands for heating and cooling that hydropower resources serve. This study assesses the effect of climate change on hydropower and electricity demand in the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) in China on the regional net electric load and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This is accomplished by using climate projections from five global climate models (GCMs) to simultaneously force (1) a physically-based hydrological model and a statistically-based hydropower model to estimate the future generating capacity of 21 large hydropower plants in the UYRB and (2) an empirical electricity demand model accounting for socioeconomic and climatic factors. Under climate change, the projected hydropower generation in the UYRB tends to increase in the 21st century but is far less than the increase in electricity demand, increasing the gap between demand and supply. Future increases in overall electricity demand are driven by GDP growth, but climate change will alter the distribution of the seasonal electricity demand. Climate warming decreases electricity demand for heating in winter and increases electricity demand for cooling in summer, but ultimately increases demand. Meanwhile, there is an increasing mismatch between electricity demand and hydropower supply associated with inter- and intra-annual variations, owing to the temporal climate change and increase in compound climate extremes (droughts and heatwaves). Finally, meeting the gap between supply and demand due to climate change is estimated to contribute 79.0–184.6 and 50.6–316.2 MMT CO 2e /yr of additional GHG emissions by the mid and end of 21st century, respectively.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing Drought Behavior in the Colorado River Basin Using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Drought is a pressing issue for the Colorado River Basin (CRB) due to the social and economic value of water resources in the region and the significant uncertainty of future drought under climate change. Here, we use climate simulations from various Earth System Models (ESMs) to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model and project multiple drought indicators for the sub-watersheds within the CRB. We apply an unsupervised machine learning (ML) based on Non-Negative Matrix Factorization using K-means clustering (NMFk) to synthesize the simulated historical, future, and change in drought indicators. The unsupervised ML approach can identify sub-watersheds where key changes to drought indicator behavior occur, including shifts in snowpack, snowmelt timing, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. While changes in future precipitation vary across ESMs, the results indicate that the Upper CRB will experience increasing evaporative demand and surface-water scarcity, with some locations experiencing a shift from a radiation-limited to a water-limited evaporation regime in the summer. Large shifts in peak runoff are observed in snowmelt-dominant sub-watersheds, with complete disappearance of the snowmelt signal for some sub-watersheds. The work demonstrates the utility of the NMFk algorithm to efficiently identify behavioral changes of drought indicators across space and time and to quickly analyze and interpret hydro climate model results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Precipitation in Northeast Mexico Primarily Controlled by the Relative Warming of Atlantic SSTs

Abstract Reconstructing hydroclimate over the Common Era is essential for understanding the dominant mechanisms of precipitation change and improving climate model projections, which currently suggest Northeast Mexico will become drier in the future. Tree‐ring reconstructions have suggested regional rainfall is primarily controlled by Pacific sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs). However, tree ring records tend to reflect winter‐spring rainfall, and thus may not accurately record total annual precipitation. Using the first multiproxy speleothem record spanning the last millennium, combined with results from an atmospheric general circulation model, we demonstrate mean annual rainfall in Northeast Mexico is highly sensitive to Atlantic SST variability. Our findings suggest future precipitation in Northeast Mexico is more dependent upon the warming of Tropical Atlantic SSTs relative to the Tropical Pacific.

Wright, Kevin T.↗
DOE OSTI2021

The potential land requirements and related land use change emissions of solar energy

Although the transition to renewable energies will intensify the global competition for land, the potential impacts driven by solar energy remain unexplored. In this work, the potential solar land requirements and related land use change emissions are computed for the EU, India, Japan and South Korea. A novel method is developed within an integrated assessment model which links socioeconomic, energy, land and climate systems. At 25–80% penetration in the electricity mix of those regions by 2050, we find that solar energy may occupy 0.5–5% of total land. The resulting land cover changes, including indirect effects, will likely cause a net release of carbon ranging from 0 to 50 gCO 2 /kWh, depending on the region, scale of expansion, solar technology efficiency and land management practices in solar parks. Hence, a coordinated planning and regulation of new solar energy infrastructures should be enforced to avoid a significant increase in their life cycle emissions through terrestrial carbon losses.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Environmental controls on isolated convection during the Amazonian wet season

The Amazon rainforest is a vital component of the global climate system, influencing the hydrological cycle and tropical circulation. However, understanding and modeling the evolution of convection in this region remain a scientific challenge. Here, we assess the environmental conditions associated with shallow, congestus, and isolated deep convection days during the wet season (December to April), employing measurements from the Green Ocean Amazon 2014–2015 (GoAmazon2014/5) experiment and large-scale wind fields from the constrained variational analysis. Composites of deep days show moister than average conditions below 3 km early in the morning. Analyzing the water budget at the surface through observations only, we estimated the water vapor convergence term as a residual of the water balance closure. Convergence remains nearly zero during the deep days until early afternoon (13:00 LST), when it becomes a dominant factor in the water budget. At 14:00 LST, the deep days experience a robust upward large-scale vertical velocity, especially above 4 km, which supports the shallow-to-deep convective transition occurring around 16:00–17:00 LST. In contrast, shallow and congestus days exhibit drier pre-convective conditions, along with diurnal water vapor divergence and large-scale subsidence that extend from the surface to the lower free troposphere. Moreover, afternoon precipitation exhibits the strongest linear correlation (0.6) with large-scale vertical velocity, nearly double the magnitude observed for other environmental factors, even moisture, at different levels and periods of the day. Precipitation also exhibits a moderate increase with low-level wind shear, while upper-level shear has a relatively minor negative impact on convection.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tropical Cirrus in Global Storm-Resolving Models: 1. Role of Deep Convection

Pervasive cirrus clouds in the upper troposphere and tropical tropopause layer (TTL) influence the climate by altering the top-of-atmosphere radiation balance and stratospheric water vapor budget. These cirrus are often associated with deep convection, which global climate models must parameterize and struggle to accurately simulate. By comparing high-resolution global storm-resolving models from the Dynamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) intercomparison that explicitly simulate deep convection to satellite observations, we assess how well these models simulate deep convection, convectively generated cirrus, and deep convective injection of water into the TTL over representative tropical land and ocean regions. The DYAMOND models simulate deep convective precipitation, organization, and cloud structure fairly well over land and ocean regions, but with clear intermodel differences. All models produce frequent overshooting convection whose strongest updrafts humidify the TTL and are its main source of frozen water. Intermodel differences in cloud properties and convective injection exceed differences between land and ocean regions in each model. We argue that, with further improvements, global storm-resolving models can better represent tropical cirrus and deep convection in present and future climates than coarser-resolution climate models. To realize this potential, they must use available observations to perfect their ice microphysics and dynamical flow solvers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fine Ash-Bearing Particles as a Major Aerosol Component in Biomass Burning Smoke

Biomass burning (BB) events are occurring globally with increasing frequency, and their emissions are having more impacts on human health and climate. Large ash particles are recognized as a BB product with major influences on soil and water environments. However, fine-ash particles, which have diameters smaller than several microns and characteristic morphologies and compositions (mainly Ca and Mg carbonates), have not yet been explicitly considered as a major BB aerosol component either in field observations or climate models. This study measured BB aerosol samples using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and ion chromatography during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign. We show that significant amounts of fine ash-bearing particles are transported >100 km from their fire sources. Our environmental chamber experiments suggest that they can act as cloud condensation and ice nuclei. We also found considerable amounts of fine ash-bearing particles in the TEM samples collected during previous campaigns (Biomass Burning Observation Project and Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations). These ash particles are commonly mixed with organic matter and make up ~8% and 5% of BB smoke by number and mass, respectively, in samples collected during the FIREX-AQ campaign. The measured ash-mass concentrations are approximately five times and six times greater than those of BB black carbon and potassium, respectively, scaling to an estimated global emission of 11.6 Tg yr -1 with a range of 8.8–16.3 Tg yr -1 . Better characterization and constraints on these fine ash-bearing particles will improve BB aerosol measurements and strengthen assessments of BB impacts on human health and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2

The development, implementation, and evaluation of a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system for the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) utilizing the four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) method are presented in this study. The 4DEnVar method, based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) approach, replaces the adjoint model with the ensemble technique, thereby reducing computational demands. Monthly mean ocean temperature and salinity data from the EN4.2.1 reanalysis are integrated into the ocean component of E3SMv2 from 1950 to 2021 with the goal of providing realistic initial conditions for decadal predictions and predictability studies. The performance of the WCODA system is assessed using various metrics, including the reduction rate of the cost function, root mean square error (RMSE) differences, correlation differences, and model biases. Results indicate that the WCODA system effectively assimilates the reanalysis data into the climate model, consistently achieving negative reduction rates of the cost function and notable improvements in RMSE and correlation across various ocean layers and regions. Significant enhancements are observed in the upper ocean layers across the majority of global ocean regions, particularly in the north Atlantic, north Pacific, and Indian Ocean. Model biases in sea surface temperature and salinity are also substantially reduced. For sea surface temperature, cold biases in the north Pacific and north Atlantic are diminished by about 1–2 °C, and warm biases in the Southern Ocean are corrected by approximately 1.5–2.5 °C. In terms of salinity, improvements are observed with bias reductions of about 0.5–1 psu in the north Atlantic and north Pacific and up to 1.5 psu in parts of the Southern Ocean. The ultimate goal of the WCODA system is to advance the predictive capabilities of E3SM for subseasonal to decadal climate predictions, thereby supporting research on strategic energy-sector policies and planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Linking the subseasonal variability of the East Asia winter monsoon and the Madden-Julian Oscillation through wave disturbances along the subtropical jet

Despite an urgent demand for reliable subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions to guide disaster preparedness, our current climate models show limited S2S prediction skill, particularly for precipitation, due to an inadequate understanding of the key processes that drive regional S2S variability. Here we demonstrate that the leading subseasonal variability mode of precipitation over the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) region is not only closely tied to the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), but also linked to precipitation and temperature extremes worldwide, influenced by a circumglobal Rossby wave-train along the subtropical westerly jet. Despite a close phase-lock relationship between the MJO and subseasonal EAWM precipitation, our findings indicate that the MJO itself may only play a minor role in the subseasonal EAWM variability. Given its significant impact on the S2S variability of global weather extremes, we call for coordinated community efforts to enhance the understanding and prediction of the circumglobal Rossby wave-train.

Atmospheric science↗
DOE OSTI2024

Local-scale heterogeneity of soil thermal dynamics and controlling factors in a discontinuous permafrost region

In permafrost regions, the strong spatial and temporal variability in soil temperature cannot be explained by the weather forcing only. Understanding the local heterogeneity of soil thermal dynamics and their controls is essential to understand how permafrost systems respond to climate change and to develop process-based models or remote sensing products for predicting soil temperature. In this study, we analyzed soil temperature dynamics and their controls in a discontinuous permafrost region on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. We acquired one-year temperature time series at multiple depths (at 5 or 10 cm intervals up to 85 cm depth) at 45 discrete locations across a 2.3 km 2 watershed. We observed a larger spatial variability in winter temperatures than that in summer temperatures at all depths, with the former controlling most of the spatial variability in mean annual temperatures. We also observed a strong correlation between mean annual ground temperature at a depth of 85 cm and mean annual or winter season ground surface temperature across the 45 locations. We demonstrate that soils classified as cold, intermediate, or warm using hierarchical clustering of full-year temperature data closely match their co-located vegetation (graminoid tundra, dwarf shrub tundra, and tall shrub tundra, respectively). We show that the spatial heterogeneity in soil temperature is primarily driven by spatial heterogeneity in snow cover, which induces variable winter insulation and soil thermal diffusivity. These effects further extend to the subsequent summer by causing variable latent heat exchanges. Finally, we discuss the challenges of predicting soil temperatures from snow depth and vegetation height alone by considering the complexity observed in the field data and reproduced in a model sensitivity analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulator for Hydrologic Unstructured Domains (SHUD v1.0): numerical modeling of watershed hydrology with the finite volume method

Abstract. Hydrologic modeling is an essential strategy for understanding and predicting natural flows, particularly where observations are lacking in either space or time or where complex terrain leads to a disconnect in the characteristic time and space scales of overland and groundwater flow. However, significant difficulties remain for the development of efficient and extensible modeling systems that operate robustly across complex regions. This paper introduces the Simulator for Hydrologic Unstructured Domains (SHUD), an integrated, multiprocess, multiscale, flexible-time-step model, in which hydrologic processes are fully coupled using the finite volume method. SHUD integrates overland flow, snow accumulation/melt, evapotranspiration, subsurface flow, groundwater flow, and river routing, thus allowing physical processes in general watersheds to be realistically captured. SHUD incorporates one-dimensional unsaturated flow, two-dimensional groundwater flow, and a fully connected river channel network with hillslopes supporting overland flow and baseflow. The paper introduces the design of SHUD, from the conceptual and mathematical description of hydrologic processes in a watershed to the model's computational structures. To demonstrate and validate the model performance, we employ three hydrologic experiments: the V-catchment experiment, Vauclin's experiment, and a model study of the Cache Creek Watershed in northern California. Ongoing applications of the SHUD model include hydrologic analyses of hillslope to regional scales (1 m2 to 106 km2), water resource and stormwater management, and interdisciplinary research for questions in limnology, agriculture, geochemistry, geomorphology, water quality, ecology, climate and land-use change. The strength of SHUD is its flexibility as a scientific and resource evaluation tool where modeling and simulation are required.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating AI with physics-based hydrological models and observations for insightinto changing climate and anthropogenic impacts

Focal Areas: Advanced computational methods that integrate AI, physics, and observations to provide predictive landscape hydrological modeling over large areas (regional, continental, worldwide) while incorporating increasingly available high-resolution data from drones, lidar and satellite. Science Challenge: Landscape data is available at finer scales than can be used in physics-based hydrological (PBH) models for regional or continental terrestrial water modeling. Thus, we throw away observable detail to achieve computability. We argue that integration of AI with PBH models and observed data can be used to provide upscaling for predictive models that are computable, retain physical conservation properties, and represent the fine-scale features that affect complex flow physics through both natural and urban environments. Developing such next-generation capabilities requires outside-the-box thinking that melds the different approaches of AI modeling, PBH modeling, and observation across multiple scales from local drones to satellites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗