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NASA NTRS2014

The Development of a Long-Term, Continually Updated Global Solar Resource at 10 km Resolution: Preliminary Results From Test Processing and Continuing Plans

Background: Considering the likelihood of global climatic weather pattern changes and the global competition for energy resources, there is an increasing need to provide improved and continuously updated global Earth surface solar resource information. Toward this end, a project was funded under the NASA Applied Science program involving the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the State University of New York/Albany (SUNY) and the NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) to provide NREL with a global long-term advanced global solar mapping production system for improved depiction of historical solar resources and variability and to provide a mechanism for continual updates of solar resource information. This new production system is made possible by the efforts of NOAA and NASA to completely reprocess the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data set that provides satellite visible and infrared radiances together with retrieved cloud and surface properties on a 3-hourly basis beginning from July 1983. The old version of the ISCCP data provided this information for all the world TMs available geosynchronous satellite systems and NOAA TMs AVHRR data sets at a 30 km effective resolution. This new version aims to provide a new and improved satellite calibration at an effective 10 km resolution. Thus, working with SUNY, NASA will develop and test an improved production system that will enable NREL to continually update the Earth TM solar resource. Objective and Methods: In this presentation, we provide a general overview of this project together with samples of the new solar irradiance mapped data products and comparisons to surface measurements at various locations across the world. An assessment of the solar resource values relative to calibration uncertainty and assumptions are presented. Errors resulting assumptions in snow cover and background aerosol amount are described. These uncertainties and the statistics of the agreement between the measurements and new satellite estimates are also reviewed and compared to other solar data sets. Findings and Conclusions: Preliminary results show that insolation values show an overall small bias (less than 1%) with a RMS of 25% relative to surface measurements. Exceptions at certain locations were found and will be discussed relative to the uncertainties identified above. Lastly, we will identify the next steps in the development and improvement of this production system including some accuracy goals in preparation for ultimate delivery to NREL.

Stackhouse, P.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Rapid Turnaround of Costing/Designing of Space Missions Operations

The Ground Segment Team (GST), at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, provides high-level mission operations concepts and cost estimates for projects that are in the formulation phase. GST has developed a tool to track costs, assumptions, and mission requirements, and to rapidly turnaround estimates for mission operations, ground data systems, and tracking for deep space and near Earth missions. Estimates that would often take several weeks to generate are now generated in minutes through the use of an integrated suite of cost models. The models were developed through interviews with domain experts in areas of Mission Operations, including but not limited to: systems engineering, payload operations, tracking resources, mission planning, navigation, telemetry and command, and ground network infrastructure. Data collected during interviews were converted into parametric cost models and integrated into one tool suite. The tool has been used on a wide range of missions from small Earth orbiters, to flagship missions like Cassini. The tool is an aid to project managers and mission planners as they consider different scenarios during the proposal and early development stages of their missions. The tool is also used for gathering cost related requirements and assumptions and for conducting integrated analysis of multiple missions.

Cost estimation↗
NASA NTRS1974

Wind energy developments in the 20th century

Wind turbine systems for generating electrical power have been tested in many countries. Representative examples of turbines which have produced from 100 to 1250 kW are described. The advantages of wind energy consist of its being a nondepleting, nonpolluting, and free fuel source. Its disadvantages relate to the variability of wind and the high installation cost per kilowatt of capacity of wind turbines when compared to other methods of electric-power generation. High fuel costs and potential resource scarcity have led to a five-year joint NASA-NSF program to study wind energy. The program will study wind energy conversion and storage systems with respect to cost effectiveness, and will attempt to estimate national wind-energy potential and develop techniques for generator site selection. The studies concern a small-systems (50-250 kW) project, a megawatt-systems (500-3000 kW) project, supporting research and technology, and energy storage. Preliminary economic analyses indicate that wind-energy conversion can be competitive in high-average-wind areas.

Vargo, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS1997

The ASAC Flight Segment and Network Cost Models

To assist NASA in identifying research art, with the greatest potential for improving the air transportation system, two models were developed as part of its Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). The ASAC Flight Segment Cost Model (FSCM) is used to predict aircraft trajectories, resource consumption, and variable operating costs for one or more flight segments. The Network Cost Model can either summarize the costs for a network of flight segments processed by the FSCM or can be used to independently estimate the variable operating costs of flying a fleet of equipment given the number of departures and average flight stage lengths.

Kaplan, Bruce J.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Characterization of Forested Landscapes From Remotely Sensed Data Using Fractals and Spatial Autocorrelation

The characterization of forested areas is frequently required in resource management practice. Passive remotely sensed data, which are much more accessible and cost effective than are active data, have rarely, if ever, been used to characterize forest structure directly, but rather they usually focus on the estimation of indirect measurement of biomass or canopy coverage. In this study, some spatial analysis techniques are presented that might be employed with Landsat TM data to analyze forest structure characteristics. A case study is presented wherein fractal dimensions, along with a simple spatial autocorrelation technique (Moran s I), were related to stand density parameters of the Oakmulgee National Forest located in the southeastern United States (Alabama). The results of the case study presented herein have shown that as the percentage of smaller diameter trees becomes greater, and particularly if it exceeds 50%, then the canopy image obtained from Landsat TM data becomes sufficiently homogeneous so that the spatial indices reach their lower limits and thus are no longer determinative. It also appears, at least for the Oakmulgee forest, that the relationships between the spatial indices and forest class percentages within the boundaries can reasonably be considered linear. The linear relationship is much more pronounced in the sawtimber and saplings cases than in samples dominated by medium sized trees (poletimber). In addition, it also appears that, at least for the Oakmulgee forest, the relationships between the spatial indices and forest species groups (Hardwood and Softwood) percentages can reasonably be considered linear. The linear relationship is more pronounced in the forest species groups cases than in the forest classes cases. These results appear to indicate that both fractal dimensions and spatial autocorrelation indices hold promise as means of estimating forest stand characteristics from remotely sensed images. However, additional work is needed to confirm that the boundaries identified for Oakmulgee forest and the linear nature of the relationship between image complexity indices and forest characteristics are generally evident in other forests. In addition, the effects of other parameters such ,as topographic relief and image distortion due to sun angle and cloud cover, for example, need to be examined.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Monitoring Coastal Marshes for Persistent Flooding and Salinity Stress

Our objective is to provide NASA remote sensing products that provide inundation and salinity information on an ecosystem level to support habitat switching models. Project born out of need by the Coastal Restoration Monitoring System (CRMS), joint effort by Louisiana Department of Natural Resources and the U.S. Geological Survey, for information on persistence of flooding by storm surge and other flood waters. The results of the this work support the habitat-switching modules in the Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem Assessment and Restoration (CLEAR) model, which provides scientific evaluation for restoration management. CLEAR is a collaborative effort between the Louisiana Board of Regents, the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources (LDNR), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). Anticipated results will use: a) Resolution enhanced time series data combining spatial resolution of Landsat with temporal resolution of MODIS for inundation estimates. b) Potential salinity products from radar and multispectral modeling. c) Combined inundation and salinity inputs to habitat switching module to produce habitat switching maps (shown at left)

Kalcic, Maria↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Super Tuesday Outbreak: Forecast Sensitivities to Single-Moment Microphysics Schemes

Forecast precipitation and radar characteristics are used by operational centers to guide the issuance of advisory products. As operational numerical weather prediction is performed at increasingly finer spatial resolution, convective precipitation traditionally represented by sub-grid scale parameterization schemes is now being determined explicitly through single- or multi-moment bulk water microphysics routines. Gains in forecasting skill are expected through improved simulation of clouds and their microphysical processes. High resolution model grids and advanced parameterizations are now available through steady increases in computer resources. As with any parameterization, their reliability must be measured through performance metrics, with errors noted and targeted for improvement. Furthermore, the use of these schemes within an operational framework requires an understanding of limitations and an estimate of biases so that forecasters and model development teams can be aware of potential errors. The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Spring Experiments have produced daily, high resolution forecasts used to evaluate forecast skill among an ensemble with varied physical parameterizations and data assimilation techniques. In this research, high resolution forecasts of the 5-6 February 2008 Super Tuesday Outbreak are replicated using the NSSL configuration in order to evaluate two components of simulated convection on a large domain: sensitivities of quantitative precipitation forecasts to assumptions within a single-moment bulk water microphysics scheme, and to determine if these schemes accurately depict the reflectivity characteristics of well-simulated, organized, cold frontal convection. As radar returns are sensitive to the amount of hydrometeor mass and the distribution of mass among variably sized targets, radar comparisons may guide potential improvements to a single-moment scheme. In addition, object-based verification metrics are evaluated for their utility in gauging model performance and QPF variability.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Comparison of Groundwater Storage Using GRACE Data, Groundwater Levels, and a Hydrological Model in Californias Central Valley

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) measures changes in total water storage (TWS) remotely, and may provide additional insight to the use of well-based data in California's agriculturally productive Central Valley region. Under current California law, well owners are not required to report groundwater extraction rates, making estimation of total groundwater extraction difficult. As a result, other groundwater change detection techniques may prove useful. From October 2002 to September 2009, GRACE was used to map changes in TWS for the three hydrological regions (the Sacramento River Basin, the San Joaquin River Basin, and the Tulare Lake Basin) encompassing the Central Valley aquifer. Net groundwater storage changes were calculated from the changes in TWS for each of the three hydrological regions and by incorporating estimates for additional components of the hydrological budget including precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snow pack, and surface water storage. The calculated changes in groundwater storage were then compared to simulated values from the California Department of Water Resource's Central Valley Groundwater- Surface Water Simulation Model (C2VSIM) and their Water Data Library (WDL) Geographic Information System (GIS) change in storage tool. The results from the three methods were compared. Downscaling GRACE data into the 21 smaller Central Valley sub-regions included in C2VSIM was also evaluated. This work has the potential to improve California's groundwater resource management and use of existing hydrological models for the Central Valley.

Department of Water Resources↗
NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Medical Model Project - Overview and Summary of Historical Application

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project. Methods: Figure 1 [see document] illustrates the IMM modeling system and scenario process. As illustrated, the IMM computational architecture is based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques. Nineteen assumptions and limitations define the IMM application domain. Scenario definitions include crew medical attributes and mission specific details. The IMM forecasts probabilities of loss of crew life (LOCL), evacuation (EVAC), quality time lost during the mission, number of medical resources utilized and the number and type of medical events by combining scenario information with in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical information stored in the iMED. In addition, the metrics provide the integrated information necessary to estimate optimized in-flight medical kit contents under constraints of mass and volume or acceptable level of mission risk. Results and Conclusions: Historically, IMM simulations support Science and Technology planning, Exploration mission planning, and ISS program operations by supplying simulation support, iMED data information, and subject matter expertise to Crew Health and Safety and the HRP. Upcoming release of IMM version 4.0 seeks to provide enhanced functionality to increase the quality of risk decisions made using the IMM through a more accurate representation of the real world system.

Myers, J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Compiling a Comprehensive EVA Training Dataset for NASA Astronauts

Training for a spacewalk or extravehicular activity (EVA) is considered a hazardous duty for NASA astronauts. This places astronauts at risk for decompression sickness as well as various musculoskeletal disorders from working in the spacesuit. As a result, the operational and research communities over the years have requested access to EVA training data to supplement their studies. The purpose of this paper is to document the comprehensive EVA training data set that was compiled from multiple sources by the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) epidemiologists to investigate musculoskeletal injuries. The EVA training dataset does not contain any medical data, rather it only documents when EVA training was performed, by whom and other details about the session. The first activities practicing EVA maneuvers in water were performed at the Neutral Buoyancy Simulator (NBS) at the Marshall Spaceflight Center in Huntsville, Alabama. This facility opened in 1967 and was used for EVA training until the early Space Shuttle program days. Although several photographs show astronauts performing EVA training in the NBS, records detailing who performed the training and the frequency of training are unavailable. Paper training records were stored within the NBS after it was designated as a National Historic Landmark in 1985 and closed in 1997, but significant resources would be needed to identify and secure these records, and at this time LSAH has not pursued acquisition of these early training records. Training in the NBS decreased when the Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas, opened the Weightless Environment Training Facility (WETF) in 1980. Early training records from the WETF consist of 11 hand-written dive logbooks compiled by individual workers that were digitized at the request of LSAH. The WETF was integral in the training for Space Shuttle EVAs until its closure in 1998. The Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) at the Sonny Carter Training Facility near JSC opened in March 1997 and is the current site for US EVA training. Other space agencies also have used water to simulate weightlessness and train for EVAs. Russia has a training facility similar to the NBL named the Hydro Lab. The Hydro Lab began operations at the Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center (GCTC) in 1980 and has been used extensively to the present. Although a majority of training in the Hydro Lab uses the Russian Orlan suit, a small number of sessions have been conducted using a NASA suit. The Japanese Weightlessness Environment Test System (WETS) went into service at the Tsukuba Space Center in 1997 but was closed in 2011 due to extensive earthquake damage. Several sessions were performed using a NASA suit, but these sessions were short and considered "development" runs. LSAH has assembled records from the WETF, NBL and Hydro Lab. Recording of the EVA training data has changed considerably from 1967 to present. The goal of early record keeping was to track use of hardware components, and the person involved was treated as a suited operator, not as a focus of interest. Records from the past two decades are fairly precise with the person, date, suit type and size noted. On occasion the length of the session was listed, but this data is not included on all records. Records were merged from data sources and extensive cleaning of the records was required since the multiple sources frequently overlapped and duplicated records. To date the LSAH EVA training dataset includes over 12,500 EVA training sessions performed by NASA astronauts since 1981. The following variables are included for most records: Name, Sex, Event date, Event name, HUT type, HUT size, Facility, and Estimated run time. For a smaller subset of records, the following variables are available: Actual run time, Time inverted, and the suit components Waist bearing type, Shoulder harness, Shoulder pads, and Teflon inserts. The LSAH dataset is currently the most complete resource for data regarding EVA training sessions performed by NASA astronauts. However, it is not 100 percent complete since the WETS (Japan) and NBS (Marshall) training facility data were not included. This dataset has been compiled by LSAH to study the relationship of EVA training to musculoskeletal injuries but has many other non-medical applications. This dataset can be provided to other groups in order to respond to program and research questions with appropriate board approvals.

Laughlin, M. S.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Inventory and analysis of natural vegetation and related resources from space and high altitude photography

A multiple sampling technique was developed whereby spacecraft photographs supported by aircraft photographs could be used to quantify plant communities. Large scale (1:600 to 1:2,400) color infrared aerial photographs were required to identify shrub and herbaceous species. These photos were used to successfully estimate a herbaceous standing crop biomass. Microdensitometry was used to discriminate among specific plant communities and individual plant species. Large scale infrared photography was also used to estimate mule deer deaths and population density of northern pocket gophers.

Poulton, C. E.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Relative Impacts of Mitigation, Temperature, and Precipitation on 21st-Century Megadrought Risk in the American Southwest

Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would impose unprecedented stress on the limited water resources of the area, making it critical to evaluate future risks not only under different climate change mitigation scenarios but also for different aspects of regional hydroclimate. We find that changes in the mean hydroclimate state, rather than its variability, determine megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Estimates of megadrought probabilities based on precipitation alone tend to underestimate risk. Furthermore, business-as-usual emissions of greenhouse gases will drive regional warming and drying, regardless of large precipitation uncertainties. We find that regional temperature increases alone push megadrought risk above 70, 90, or 99% by the end of the century, even if precipitation increases moderately, does not change, or decreases, respectively. Although each possibility is supported by some climate model simulations, the latter is the most common outcome for the American Southwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 generation models. An aggressive reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions cuts megadrought risks nearly in half.

risk↗
NASA NTRS2017

Nano Icy Moons Propellant Harvester

As one of just a few bodies identified in the solar system with a liquid ocean, Europa has become a top priority in the search for life outside of Earth. However, cost estimates for exploring Europa have been prohibitively expensive, with estimates of a NASA Flagship class orbiter and lander approaching $5 billion. ExoTerra's NIMPH offers an affordable solution that can not only land, but return a sample from the surface to Earth. NIMPH combines solar electric propulsion (SEP) technologies being developed for the asteroid redirect mission and microsatellite electronics to reduce the cost of a full sample return mission below $500 million. A key to achieving this order-of-magnitude cost reduction is minimizing the initial mass of the system. The cost of any mission is directly proportional to its mass. By keeping the mission within the constraints of an Atlas V 551 launch vehicle versus an SLS, we can significantly reduce launch costs. To achieve this we reduce the landed mass of the sample return lander, which is the largest multiplier of mission mass, and shrink propellant mass through high efficiency SEP and gravity assists. The NIMPH projects first step in reducing landed mass focuses on development of a micro-In Situ Resource Utilization (micro-ISRU) system. ISRU allows us to minimize landed mass of a sample return mission by converting local ice into propellants. The project reduces the ISRU system to a CubeSat-scale package that weighs just 1.74 kg and consumes just 242 W of power. We estimate that use of this ISRU vs. an identical micro-lander without ISRU reduces fuel mass by 45 kg. As the dry mass of the lander grows for larger missions, these savings scale exponentially. Taking full advantage of the micro-ISRU system requires the development of a micro-liquid oxygen-liquid hydrogen engine. The micro-liquid oxygen-liquid hydrogen engine is tailored for the mission by scaling it to match the scale of the micro-lander and the low gravity of the target moon. We also tailor the engine for a near stoichiometric mixture ratio of 7.5. Most high-performance liquid oxygen-liquid hydrogen engines inject extra liquid hydrogen to lower the average molecular weight of the exhaust, which improves specific impulse. However, this extra liquid hydroden requires additional power and processing time on the surface for the ISRU to create. This increases mission cost, and on missions within high radiation environments such as Europa, increases radiation shielding mass. The resulting engine weighs just 1.36 kg and produces 71.5 newton of thrust at 364 s specific impulse. Finally, the mission reduces landed mass by taking advantage of the SEP modules solar power to beam energy to the surface using a collimated laser. This allows us to replace an 45 kg MMRTG with a 2.5 kg resonant array. By using the combination of ISRU, a liquid oxygen-liquid hydrogen engine, and beamed power, we reduce the initial mass of the lander to just 51.5 kg. When combined with an SEP module to ferry the lander to Europa the initial mission mass is just 6397 kg - low enough to be placed on an Earth escape trajectory using an Atlas V 551 launch vehicle. By comparison, we estimate a duplicate lander using an MMRTG and semi-storable propellants such as liquid oxygen-methane would result in an order of magnitude increase in initial lander mass to 445 kg. Attempting to perform the trajectory with a 450 s liquid oxygen-liquid hydrogen engine would increase initial mass to approximately 135,000 kg. Using an Atlas V 1 U.S. Dollar per kg rate to Earth escape value of $27.7k per kg, just the launch savings are over $3.5 billion.

liquid↗
NASA NTRS1986

Recent concepts in missions to Mars - Extraterrestrial processes

This paper presents some recent concepts in Mars Sample Return (MSR) missions that utilize extraterrestrial resources. The concepts examined include the power and energy needs of this mission. It is shown that solar energy is not especially attractive. Radioisotopic power generator and a Rankine cycle use are seen to be viable options. Quantitative estimates, taking into consideration state-of-the-art and projected technologies indicate that the power/energy per se is not critical to the mission - but reliability is. Hence, various modern options for the components of the power generation and utilization are discussed. The dramatic savings in Shuttle (or other) vehicle launches are quantitatively plotted. The basic system that is discussed here is the production of hydrocarbon (methane) fuel and oxygen from Martian atmosphere. For the simplest mission, it is seen that earth-carried methane burned with oxygen produced on site provides the best system.

Ramohalli, K. N.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth's carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Curreri, Peter A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth s carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Curreri, Peter A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth s carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O'Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Curreri, Peter A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV): Flight Rationale for the Space Shuttle Program

Each Orbiter Vehicle (Space Shuttle Program) contains up to 24 Kevlar49/Epoxy Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV) for storage of pressurized gases. In the wake of the Columbia accident and the ensuing Return To Flight (RTF) activities, Orbiter engineers reexamined COPV flight certification. The original COPV design calculations were updated to include recently declassified Kevlar COPV test data from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and to incorporate changes in how the Space Shuttle was operated as opposed to orinigially envisioned. 2005 estimates for the probability of a catastrophic failure over the life of the program (from STS-1 through STS-107) were one-in-five. To address this unacceptable risk, the Orbiter Project Office (OPO) initiated a comprehensive investigation to understand and mitigate this risk. First, the team considered and eventually deemed unfeasible procuring and replacing all existing flight COPVs. OPO replaced the two vessels with the highest risk with existing flight spare units. Second, OPO instituted operational improvements in ground procedures to signficiantly reduce risk, without adversely affecting Shuttle capability. Third, OPO developed a comprehensive model to quantify the likelihood of occurrance. A fully-instrumented burst test (recording a lower burst pressure than expected) on a flight-certified vessel provided critical understanding of the behavior of Orbiter COPVs. A more accurate model was based on a newly-compiled comprehensive database of Kevlar data from LLNL and elsewhere. Considering hardware changes, operational improvements and reliability model refinements, the mean reliability was determined to be 0.998 for the remainder of the Shuttle Program (from 2007, for STS- 118 thru STS-135). Since limited hardware resources precluded full model validation through multiple tests, additional model confidence was sought through the first-ever Accelerated Stress Rupture Test (ASRT) of a flown flight article. A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to interpret possible test results. Since the lifetime observed in the ASRT exceeded initial estimates by one to two orders of magnitude, the Space Shuttle Program deemed there was significant conservatism in the model and accepted continued operation with existing flight hardware. Given the variability in tank-to-tank original prooftest response, a non-destructive evaluation (NDE) technique utilizing Raman Spectroscopy was developed to directly measure COPV residual stress state. Preliminary results showed that patterns of low fiber elastic strains over the outside vessel surface, together with measured permanent volume growth during proof, could be directly correlated to increased fiber stress ratios on the inside fibers adjacent to the liner, and thus reduced reliability.

Kezirian, Michael T.↗