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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Unlocking the benefits of transparent and reusable science for climate-risk management

People around the world seek climate-risk information to guide their decisions. For instance, projections about future flood risk inform where households choose to live, how lenders manage credit risks, and which communities receive federal funding. Yet data limitations and fundamental validation challenges raise important concerns about the reliability of such projections. The principles of transparency and reusability help address these concerns by enabling scrutiny of assumptions and methods, development of foundational data and tools, and consistent application of evaluation standards. While there is ongoing debate about how much transparency commercial climate-risk services should provide, many expect non-commercial actors to lead the way on operationalizing transparency and reusability to fulfill their knowledge-building role in the climate-risk ecosystem. However, despite prominent success stories, we find a substantial gap between principles and practice: only four percent of the most-cited peer-reviewed climate-risk studies in recent years fully share their data and code despite this being a widely accepted minimum standard for transparency. We highlight low-cost measures that non-commercial researchers can take now to improve transparency and reusability. We also emphasize that transformative progress requires substantial investment, cross-sector collaboration, and careful consideration of tradeoffs, data rights, and multiple perspectives on equity. We hope this perspective accelerates both immediate actions and longer-term conversations to improve the ability of science to effectively support timely, evidence-based, and sound climate-risk management.

Open Science↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Project Lifetime Approach to the Management of Induced Seismicity Risk at Geologic Carbon Storage Sites

The geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is one method that can help reduce atmospheric CO 2 by sequestering it into the subsurface. Large-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage, however, may be accompanied by induced seismicity. We present a project lifetime approach to address the induced seismicity risk at these geologic storage sites. This approach encompasses both technical and nontechnical stakeholder issues related to induced seismicity and spans the time period from the initial consideration phase to postclosure. These recommendations are envisioned to serve as general guidelines, setting expectations for operators, regulators, and the public. They contain a set of seven actionable focus areas, the purpose of which are to deal proactively with induced seismicity issues. Although each geologic carbon storage site will be unique and will require a custom approach, these general best practice recommendations can be used as a starting point to any site-specific plan for how to systematically evaluate, communicate about, and mitigate induced seismicity at a particular reservoir.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vulnerabilities in Satellite Communications Underscore Threat to Critical Infrastructure

INL analysts assess critical infrastructure sectors leveraging satellite communications (SATCOM) are likely inadvertently increasing the attack surface caused by inherent vulnerabilities in equipment and communications pathways. A lack of ownership regarding security in SATCOM ecosystems creates pervasive information security risk, and the obfuscation of patching responsibility means the mitigation of publicly and privately disclosed vulnerabilities is difficult to track. With these factors in consideration, INL analysts assess the number of attacks against SATCOM is likely to increase in the next decade as threat actors exploit these vulnerabilities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Potential for Sonic Boom Reduction of the 2.4-H5085 Arrow Wing HSCT

Preliminary human acceptability studies of sonic booms indicate that supersonic flight is unlikely to be acceptable even at noise levels significantly below 1994 low boom designs (reference 1, p. 288). Further, these low boom designs represent considerable changes to baseline configurations, and changes translate into additional effort and uncertain structural weight penalties that may provide no annoyance benefit, increasing the risk of including low boom technology. Since over land sonic boom designs were so risky (and yet the acceptability studies highlight how annoying sonic booms are), boom softening studies were undertaken to reduce the boom of baseline configurations using minor modifications that would not significantly change the designs. The goal of this work is to reduce boom levels over water. Even though Concorde over water boom has not been found to have any adverse environmental impact, boom levels for baseline HSCT designs are 50% higher in overpressure than the Concorde (due to a doubling in configuration weight with only a 50% increase in length),

Morgenstern, John M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

p53 deficiency alters the yield and spectrum of radiation-induced lacZ mutants in the brain of transgenic mice

Exposure to heavy particle radiation in the galacto-cosmic environment poses a significant risk in space exploration and the evaluation of radiation-induced genetic damage in tissues, especially in the central nervous system, is an important consideration in long-term manned space missions. We used a plasmid-based transgenic mouse model system, with the pUR288 lacZ transgene integrated in the genome of every cell of C57Bl/6(lacZ) mice, to evaluate the genetic damage induced by iron particle radiation. In order to examine the importance of genetic background on the radiation sensitivity of individuals, we cross-bred p53 wild-type lacZ transgenic mice with p53 nullizygous mice, producing lacZ transgenic mice that were either hemizygous or nullizygous for the p53 tumor suppressor gene. Animals were exposed to an acute dose of 1 Gy of iron particles and the lacZ mutation frequency (MF) in the brain was measured at time intervals from 1 to 16 weeks post-irradiation. Our results suggest that iron particles induced an increase in lacZ MF (2.4-fold increase in p53+/+ mice, 1.3-fold increase in p53+/- mice and 2.1-fold increase in p53-/- mice) and that this induction is both temporally regulated and p53 genotype dependent. Characterization of mutants based on their restriction patterns showed that the majority of the mutants arising spontaneously are derived from point mutations or small deletions in all three genotypes. Radiation induced alterations in the spectrum of deletion mutants and reorganization of the genome, as evidenced by the selection of mutants containing mouse genomic DNA. These observations are unique in that mutations in brain tissue after particle radiation exposure have never before been reported owing to technical limitations in most other mutation assays.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2018

Use of Multi-Spectral High Repetition Rate LED Systems for High Bandwidth Underwater Optical Communications, and Communications to Surface and Aerial Systems

A variety of both existing and developing sensors would benefit from near real time communication of high bandwidth data. To cite just one example, sensors that could more accurately report real-time positions of marine mammals would be useful in reducing whale-ship collisions. Similar considerations are relevant for maritime port and harbor security, including detection and alerts for divers or autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) that could pose a risk to ships. Especially in ports and harbors, field experiments have confirmed that acoustic communication in these cluttered and noisy shallow water environments, compounded with vertical reflecting surfaces formed by piers and pilings, can limit the reliability and utility of underwater acoustic communications. Moreover, many sensors have greater bandwidth requirements than acoustic communications are able to provide. We here discuss the development of high repetition rate multispectral LED optical systems initially developed for imaging, but also capable of simultaneous data transmission at rates of approximately100 kilobits per second. Results are discussed for the multispectral images from coral reefs in Guam, and data transmission experiments from underwater to surface vessels. Subsequent field efforts will extend data transmission from AUVs to unmanned aircraft systems (UAS).

Underwater↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Alternative Jettison Design Concepts for Deep-space Missions

The management of waste generated onboard spacecraft during future long-duration, deep-space missions will require different solutions from those currently implemented on the International Space Station, which consist exclusively of collecting, storing, and returning the waste to Earth. Alternative options for managing spacecraft waste are to process it for recycling and recovering resources, and to jettison it overboard. The waste generated during a deep-space mission is derived mainly from spacecraft logistics supplies, food and beverage residues, personal or scientific items used by the crew, and unused spare components. Uncontained and unprocessed trash is a health hazard and a habitat volume liability, which makes onboard long-term storage a nonviable option. Jettison of solid, processed waste appear, on the other hand, to be an effective solution for crewed deep-space missions, leading not only to volume reduction and habitat safening, but also to considerable mass savings in the spacecraft’s propulsion system. However, the disposal of trash overboard also creates a navigation hazard for spacecraft and the risk of collisions with planetary bodies. This paper investigates alternative jettison design concepts for L2 libration orbit, Mars conjunction-class, and Mars opposition-class missions.

Jurek Parodi↗
NASA NTRS2011

C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Standards Development. Phase II Final Report. Volume 1: Concepts of Use, Initial System Requirements, Architecture, and AeroMACS Design Considerations

This report is provided as part of ITT s NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: New ATM Requirements-Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development and was based on direction provided by FAA project-level agreements for New ATM Requirements-Future Communications. Task 7 included two subtasks. Subtask 7-1 addressed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface data communications standards development, systems engineering, test bed and prototype development, and tests and demonstrations to establish operational capability for the Aeronautical Mobile Airport Communications System (AeroMACS). Subtask 7-2 focused on systems engineering and development support of the L-band digital aeronautical communications system (L-DACS). Subtask 7-1 consisted of two phases. Phase I included development of AeroMACS concepts of use, requirements, architecture, and initial high-level safety risk assessment. Phase II builds on Phase I results and is presented in two volumes. Volume I (this document) is devoted to concepts of use, system requirements, and architecture, including AeroMACS design considerations. Volume II describes an AeroMACS prototype evaluation and presents final AeroMACS recommendations. This report also describes airport categorization and channelization methodologies. The purposes of the airport categorization task were (1) to facilitate initial AeroMACS architecture designs and enable budgetary projections by creating a set of airport categories based on common airport characteristics and design objectives, and (2) to offer high-level guidance to potential AeroMACS technology and policy development sponsors and service providers. A channelization plan methodology was developed because a common global methodology is needed to assure seamless interoperability among diverse AeroMACS services potentially supplied by multiple service providers.

Hall, Edward↗
DOE OSTI2022

Compounding Risks from Natural Phenomena Hazards at U.S. Department of Energy Facilities

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) facilities are exposed to adverse effects of natural phenomena hazards (NPHs). While the DOE Standard (STD) 1020-2016 provides criteria and guidance for assessing these effects, certain gaps exist, particularly related to combinations of NPHs that can compound the risk to DOE facility assets. This report describes a methodology to systematically consider compounding NPHs, identified gaps in DOE-STD-1020-2016, and recommends ways to update the standard. At any given DOE facility, NPH effects depend on the site-specific hydrometeorologic and geoseismic conditions. Therefore, compounding NPHs should be determined using site-specific assessments. DOE facility assets generally are assessed using site-specific NPHs with the assessment usually limited to the DOE site extents. However, an inventory analysis of a selected DOE facility also revealed that some assets may have off-site dependencies. These dependencies may be part of threat pathways that can lead to on-site asset failures because of off-site effects of the same NPHs that also affect the DOE site. These threat pathways usually are not accounted for in traditional NPH analyses. The report also describes the effects of duration of NPH effects. Duration of disruption, particularly for off-site dependencies can lead to on-site asset failures, disruption of evacuation roadways, and consequent human health and safety effects. Finally, the report recommends some considerations for updating DOE-STD-1020-2016 to include explicit consideration of compounding NPHs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding the Effects of Vehicle Platoons on Crash Type and Severity

Crash type is an informative indicator to infer driving behaviors and conditions that cause a crash. For example, rear-end and side-swipe crashes are typically caused by improper vehicle interaction such as sudden lane-changing or speed control while hit-object crashes are likely the result of a single driver’s mistake. This study investigated the impact of vehicles travelling as a group (platoon) and its configuration (i.e., types of vehicles consisting of the platoon) on crash type and severity since the vehicles could affect each other when travelling in close proximity. This study applied Generalized Structure Equation Modeling (GSEM) to capture the complex relationships among the various crash factors such as traffic condition, driver characteristics, environmental conditions, and vehicle interaction to the crash attributes including type and severity. This study collected over 3 million individual vehicle data from 39 traffic count sites in California to estimate the vehicle interactions and driving behaviors. The microscopic traffic data are matched to 1417 crash reports. Results showed that vehicles traveling in platoons are associated with more rear-end and side-swipe crashes. Speed difference in the platoon had a positive effect on hit-object crashes if the platoon comprises vehicles of homogeneous type – either trucks or non-trucks. In addition, human factors such as age and gender were identified as significant influential factors in all type of crashes, however truck involvement particularly played an important role amongst side-swipe crashes. Crash severity was negatively affected by total flow, and rear-end crashes were more likely to be severe compared with hit-object crashes. Based on findings, this study suggests practical operational strategies to reduce traffic instability associated with platooned vehicle patterns. Understanding the high-risk factors for different crash types and severities would provide valuable insights for decision-makers and transportation engineers to develop targeted intervention strategies in consideration of road users and traffic conditions such as fleet mix and speed.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gasification of Coal and Biomass: The Route to Net-Negative-Carbon Power and Hydrogen

One promising process that is a candidate for meeting the goals of the US Department of Energy’s 21st Century Power Plant initiative is to gasify a mixture of coal and biomass to yield a syngas, which can have CO2 removed and then be used to produce hydrogen as well as an off-gas that can be used to flexibly produce power. This concept would overall be carbon net-negative and readily meet the 21st Century Power Plant initiative targets of smaller scale MW generation, high ramp rates and turndown, feedstock flexibility, and high efficiency—at a reasonable cost. Moreover, adding the large-scale production of “ultra-green” hydrogen yields a system tailored for the coming hydrogen economy, providing long-term energy storage and an attractive co-product for sale. The objective of the work being led by the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. (EPRI), with support by Bechtel Corporation (Bechtel), Gas Technology Institute (GTI), Hamilton Mauer International, Inc. (HMI), Nebraska Public Power District (NPPD), NexantECA, Inc. (Nexant), and Wärtsilä, is to perform a front-end design and engineering (FEED) study on an oxygen-blown gasification system coupled with water-gas shift, pre-combustion CO2 capture, and pressure-swing adsorption working off a coal/biomass mix to yield high-purity hydrogen and a fuel off-gas that can generate power. Several designs are being considered that will be capable of producing 50 MW net from a flexible generator, over 8500 kg/hr of hydrogen, and net-negative CO2 emissions, at an efficiency of 50% net HHV. The plant would be hosted at an NPPD site, where opportunities for enhanced oil recovery and sequestration have been investigated and the need for low-carbon power and hydrogen is imminent. The principal biomass to be used is corn stover—prevalent in Nebraska where the plant will be located—mixed with Powder River Basin (PRB) coal, necessitating a gasifier that can use this feedstock and be flexible to allow other types. Waste plastics will also be reviewed for use. Two oxygen-blown gasifiers have been identified as candidates that have done testing with biomass including corn stover: the GTI gasifier—a high-pressure, fluidized-bed type—and HMI’s, a lower pressure moving-bed type. Both have relative advantages that are being investigated in the Phase I design study, with a resultant down select of one system for which the FEED will be performed in Phase II. The technical tasks for the proposed project are: • Design Development: Completion of design activities necessary to provide inputs for the FEED study. Multiple design cases will be assessed with the selection of the optimal one for the FEED. • Investment Case Preparation: Development of the draft investment case for the proposed process with business cases performed for the proposed host site and two other locations. • Host Site Selection: Evaluation of the two potential host sites within NPPD’s portfolio to select the preferred candidate based on technical, economic, and environmental considerations. • Environmental Information Volume (EIV) Development: Completion of the EIV for the host site. • FEED Study: Completion of a FEED study based on the design selected in Phase I. A Greenhouse Gas Life Cycle Analysis will also be performed for the process. • Update Investment Case: Finalization of the investment case based on findings from the FEED. The advantages of the proposed project are significant. Having an engaged U.S. power utility willing to provide a host site that will produce energy from coal plus a deep and experienced team is critical; the process meets all the goals of DOE’s 21st Century Power Plant initiative at an estimated total plant cost of ~$880M and a production cost of hydrogen of ~$2/kg-H2 while producing net-negative carbon power. If developed, this process has real commercial potential in the United States—supported by EPRI’s initial review of the considerable interest from selected U.S. utilities—and elsewhere around the globe. The process has fewer environmental hurdles compared to other concepts, lowering regulatory and protest risks—providing a pathway to preserving the viability of a critical indigenous energy source by transforming its use to match a changing world. This presentation will outline the motivation for the effort, summarize project plans, work completed to date, results of the Design Development task, and detailed work scope for the remainder of the project.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Gasification of Coal and Biomass: The Route to Net-Negative-Carbon Power and Hydrogen

One promising process that is a candidate for meeting the goals of the US Department of Energy’s 21st Century Power Plant initiative is to gasify a mixture of coal and biomass to yield a syngas, which can have CO2 removed and then be used to produce hydrogen as well as an off-gas that can be used to flexibly produce power. This concept would overall be carbon net-negative and readily meet the 21st Century Power Plant initiative targets of smaller scale MW generation, high ramp rates and turndown, feedstock flexibility, and high efficiency—at a reasonable cost. Moreover, adding the large-scale production of “ultra-green” hydrogen yields a system tailored for the coming hydrogen economy, providing long-term energy storage and an attractive co-product for sale. The objective of the work being led by the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. (EPRI), with support by Bechtel Corporation (Bechtel), Gas Technology Institute (GTI), Hamilton Mauer International, Inc. (HMI), Nebraska Public Power District (NPPD), NexantECA, Inc. (Nexant), and Wärtsilä, is to perform a front-end design and engineering (FEED) study on an oxygen-blown gasification system coupled with water-gas shift, pre-combustion CO2 capture, and pressure-swing adsorption working off a coal/biomass mix to yield high-purity hydrogen and a fuel off-gas that can generate power. Several designs are being considered that will be capable of producing 50 MW net from a flexible generator, over 8500 kg/hr of hydrogen, and net-negative CO2 emissions, at an efficiency of 50% net HHV. The plant would be hosted at an NPPD site, where opportunities for enhanced oil recovery and sequestration have been investigated and the need for low-carbon power and hydrogen is imminent. The principal biomass to be used is corn stover—prevalent in Nebraska where the plant will be located—mixed with Powder River Basin (PRB) coal, necessitating a gasifier that can use this feedstock and be flexible to allow other types. Waste plastics will also be reviewed for use. Two oxygen-blown gasifiers have been identified as candidates that have done testing with biomass including corn stover: the GTI gasifier—a high-pressure, fluidized-bed type—and HMI’s, a lower pressure moving-bed type. Both have relative advantages that were investigated in the Phase I design study, with a resultant down select of one system for which the FEED will be performed in Phase II. The technical tasks for the project are: • Design Development: Completion of design activities necessary to provide inputs for the FEED study. Multiple design cases will be assessed with the selection of the optimal one for the FEED. • Investment Case Preparation: Development of the draft investment case for the proposed process with business cases performed for the proposed host site and two other locations. • Host Site Selection: Evaluation of the two potential host sites within NPPD’s portfolio to select the preferred candidate based on technical, economic, and environmental considerations. • Environmental Information Volume (EIV) Development: Completion of the EIV for the host site. • FEED Study: Completion of a FEED study based on the design selected in Phase I. A Greenhouse Gas Life Cycle Analysis will also be performed for the process. • Update Investment Case: Finalization of the investment case based on findings from the FEED. The advantages of the proposed project are significant. Having an engaged U.S. power utility willing to provide a host site that will produce energy from coal plus a deep and experienced team is critical; the process meets all the goals of DOE’s 21st Century Power Plant initiative at an estimated total plant cost of ~$880M and a production cost of hydrogen of ~$2/kg-H2 while producing net-negative carbon power. If developed, this process has real commercial potential in the United States—supported by EPRI’s initial review of the considerable interest from selected U.S. utilities—and elsewhere around the globe. The process has fewer environmental hurdles compared to other concepts, lowering regulatory and protest risks—providing a pathway to preserving the viability of a critical indigenous energy source by transforming its use to match a changing world. This presentation outlines the motivation for the effort, summarizes project plans, work completed to date, results of the Phase I effort and, and detailed work scope for the remainder of the project in the Phase II FEED effort.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS1995

A perspective on the Human-Rating process of US spacecraft: Both past and present

The purpose of this report is to characterize the process of Human-Rating as employed by NASA for human spaceflight. An Agency-wide committee was formed in November 1992 to develop a Human-Rating Requirements Definition for Launch Vehicles based on conventional (historical) methods. The committee members were from NASA Headquarters, Marshall Space Flight Center, Kennedy Space Center, Stennis Space Center, and Johnson Space Center. After considerable discussion and analysis, committee members concluded that Human-Rating is the process of satisfying the mutual constraints of cost, schedule, mission performance, and risk while addressing the requirements for human safety, human performance, and human health management and care.

Zupp, George↗
NASA NTRS2002

SRM-Assisted Trajectory for the GTX Reference Vehicle

A goal of the GTX effort has been to demonstrate the feasibility of a single stage-to-orbit (SSTO) vehicle that delivers a small payload to low earth orbit. The small payload class was chosen in order to minimize the risk and cost of development of this revolutionary system. A preliminary design study by the GTX team has resulted in the current configuration that offers considerable promise for meeting the stated goal. The size and gross lift-off weight resulting from scaling the current design to closure however may be considered impractical for the small payload. In lieu of evolving the project' reference vehicle to a large-payload class, this paper offers the alternative of using solid-rocket motors in order to close the vehicle at a practical scale. This approach offers a near-term, quasi-reusable system that easily evolves to reusable SSTO following subsequent development and optimization. This paper presents an overview of the impact of the addition of SRM's to the GTX reference vehicle#s performance and trajectory. The overall methods of vehicle modeling and trajectory optimization will also be presented. A key element in the trajectory optimization is the use of the program OTIS 3.10 that provides rapid convergence and a great deal of flexibility to the user. This paper will also present the methods used to implement GTX requirements into OTIS modeling.

Riehl, John↗
NASA NTRS2002

SRM-Assisted Trajectory for the GTX Reference Vehicle

A goal of the GTX effort has been to demonstrate the feasibility of a single stage- to- orbit (SSTO) vehicle that delivers a small payload to low earth orbit. The small payload class was chosen in order to minimize the risk and cost of development of this revolutionary system. A preliminary design study by the GTX team has resulted in the current configuration that offers considerable promise for meeting the stated goal. The size and gross lift-off weight resulting from scaling the current design to closure however may be considered impractical for the small payload. In lieu of evolving the project's reference vehicle to a large-payload class, this paper offers the alternative of using solid-rocket motors in order to close the vehicle at a practical scale. This approach offers a near-term, quasi-reusable system that easily evolves to reusable SSTO following subsequent development and optimization. This paper presents an overview of the impact of the addition of SRM's to the GTX reference vehicle's performance and trajectory. The overall methods of vehicle modeling and trajectory optimization will also be presented. A key element in the trajectory optimization is the use of the program OTIS 3.10 that provides rapid convergence and a great deal of flexibility to the user. This paper will also present the methods used to implement GTX requirements into OTIS modeling.

Riehl, John↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Review of Existing Policies Affecting the Jettison of Waste in Low Earth Orbit and Deep Space

The management of waste generated onboard spacecraft during future long-duration deep-space missions will require different solutions from those currently implemented on the International Space Station which consist exclusively of collecting, storing, and returning the waste to Earth. Alternative options for managing spacecraft waste are to process it for recycling and recovery of resources, and to jettison it overboard in a solid form (such as a compacted tile) or in a gaseous form after torrefaction or other trash-to-gas technologies. The waste generated during a deep-space mission is derived mainly from spacecraft logistics supplies, food and beverage residues, personal or scientific items used by the crew, human metabolic waste, and unused spare components. Uncontained and unprocessed trash is a potential health hazard and a habitat volume liability, which makes onboard long-term storage an inefficient and non-optimal option. However, the jettison of solid, processed waste appears to be an effective solution for crewed deep-space missions, leading not only to volume reduction and habitat safening, but also to considerable mass savings in the spacecraft’s propulsion system. However, the disposal of trash overboard also creates a navigation hazard for spacecraft and the potential risk of contamination of planetary bodies, interfering with the search for life. This paper investigates the requirements covered by existing policies that could affect the jettison concept of operations and system design.

Jettison↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of multi-criteria decision analysis techniques and decision support framework for informing select agent designation for agricultural animal pathogens

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Division of Agricultural Select Agents and Toxins (DASAT) established a list of biological agents and toxins (Select Agent List) that potentially threaten agricultural health and safety, the procedures governing the transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the USDA DASAT reviews the Select Agent List, using subject matter experts (SMEs) to perform an assessment and rank the agents. To assist the USDA DASAT biennial review process, we explored the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and a Decision Support Framework (DSF) in a logic tree format to identify pathogens for consideration as select agents, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its robustness and generality. We conducted a literature review of 41 pathogens against 21 criteria for assessing agricultural threat, economic impact, and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings to support this assessment. The most prominent data gaps were those for aerosol stability and animal infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. The MCDA analysis supported the intuitive sense that select agents should rank high on the relative risk scale when considering agricultural health consequences of a bioterrorism attack. However, comparing select agents with non-select agents indicated that there was not a clean break in scores to suggest thresholds for designating select agents, requiring subject matter expertise collectively to establish which analytical results were in good agreement to support the intended purpose in designating select agents. The DSF utilized a logic tree approach to identify pathogens that are of sufficiently low concern that they can be ruled out from consideration as a select agent. In contrast to the MCDA approach, the DSF rules out a pathogen if it fails to meet even one criteria threshold. Both the MCDA and DSF approaches arrived at similar conclusions, suggesting the value of employing the two analytical approaches to add robustness for decision making.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2010

Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

Graber, Robert R.↗