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DOE OSTI2024

Seance de formation n4: Modelisation de la resilience et du secteur de l'electricite - Partie I [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-88838 for the English translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Seance de formation n4: Modelisation de la resilience et du secteur de l'electricite - Partie II [Slides]

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Model data for infrastructure-aware simulation of compound flooding at Alligator Bayou Watershed, southeast Texas

This dataset supports infrastructure-aware hydrologic modeling and flood scenario analysis for the Alligator Bayou Watershed, a highly managed urban watershed in Southeast Texas. It includes Jupyter notebooks for figure reproduction, model configuration files, simulation outputs, and derived products used to quantify the influence of engineered stormwater infrastructure on flood behavior across multiple spatial scales. The dataset was generated using the Watershed Workflow Python package and the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), enabling integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic simulations on a channel-aligned mesh with explicit representations of pump stations, gate structures, detention basins, and impervious surfaces. Outputs include time series of gate and pump flows, stage observations, and water balance components, as well as spatially explicit fields of peak ponded depth and flood duration across multiple infrastructure scenarios spanning a single-location detention basin expansion, distributed drainage limitations, and compound coastal flooding. These data facilitate full reproducibility of the manuscript figures and support further research on urban flood dynamics and the role of stormwater infrastructure in shaping watershed-scale flood response.

EARTH SCIENCE > OCEANS > COASTAL PROCESSES↗

DOE OSTI2020

High-throughput screening tools facilitate calculation of a combined exposure-bioactivity index for chemicals with endocrine activity

High-throughput and computational tools provide a new opportunity to calculate combined bioactivity of exposure to diverse chemicals acting through a common mechanism. We used high throughput in vitro bioactivity data and exposure predictions from the U.S. EPA’s Toxicity and Exposure Forecaster (ToxCast and ExpoCast) to estimate combined estrogen receptor (ER) agonist activity of non-pharmaceutical chemical exposures for the general U.S. population. High-throughput toxicokinetic (HTTK) data provide conversion factors that relate bioactive concentrations measured in vitro (µM), to predicted population geometric mean exposure rates (mg/kg/day). These data were available for 22 chemicals with ER agonist activity and were estimated for other ER bioactive chemicals based on the geometric mean of HTTK values across chemicals. For each chemical, ER bioactivity across ToxCast assays was compared to predicted population geometric mean exposure at different levels of in vitro potency and model certainty. Dose additivity was assumed in calculating a Combined Exposure-Bioactivity Index (CEBI), the sum of exposure/bioactivity ratios. Combined estrogen bioactivity was also calculated in terms of the percent maximum bioactivity of chemical mixtures in human plasma using a concentration-addition model. Estimated CEBIs vary greatly depending on assumptions used for exposure and bioactivity. In general, CEBI values were <1 when using median of the estimated general population chemical intake rates, while CEBI were ≥1 when using the upper 95th confidence bound for those same intake rates for all chemicals. Concentration-addition model predictions of mixture bioactivity yield comparable results. Based on current in vitro bioactivity data, HTTK methods, and exposure models, combined exposure scenarios sufficient to influence estrogen bioactivity in the general population cannot be ruled out. Future improvements in screening methods and computational models could reduce uncertainty and better inform the potential combined effects of estrogenic chemicals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Progress on the Development of a Simulation Environment for Optical Communications

Deep space laser communications require extremely accurate beam pointing to take advantage of the narrow beams achievable at optical wavelengths. This pointing accuracy must be achieved in the presence of spacecraft basebody motion which may exceed laser pointing requirements by orders of magnitude.In this paper a model of an optical band transceiver pointing control system is developed that can be used to predict performance under various operating scenarios. The transceiver model consists of an electro-mechanical model of the telescope platform and isolator. A novel photon counting detector array is used in the simulation as the focal plane detector. In the simulation we are able to inject various cases of spacecraft basebody motion based on both flight data and future mission spacecraft jitter requirements. Various models of uplink beacon flux levels and atmospheric scintillation are also available for analysis.Using these models, detector processing and control functions are implemented in the simulation. A complete acquisition sequence is demonstrated with blind acquisition and tracking of the modulated uplink beam and positioning of the downlink beam on the focal plane array. These simulations predict that pointing requirements will be met with representative disturbance models and uplink beam scintillation.

pointing control↗

DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from quantitative models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as those about technology and infrastructure deployment, and global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require model designers to balance coverage and resolution (i.e., breadth versus depth). Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses with less resolution than models that focus on a single sector's energy use. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers projecting prices using internal calculations for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This globally comprehensive model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy of the United States: Pathways to Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050, which the White House released in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide climate change mitigation discussions and strategy development for decades. Unlike GCAM, sectoral models focus on a portion of the energy sector and with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects electricity system capacity expansion and operation with high-fidelity representation of emerging technologies for deep decarbonization, such as variable renewable energy and energy storage, and integration of these technologies into the electric grid. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices, with a focus on adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of electrification and energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in the United States. The integrated multisector and sector-specific modeling approaches represented by GCAM and these sectoral models are complementary. The integrated multisector approach calculates energy pricing and resource allocation within the model, which is important for consistency when future conditions substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios. The sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and trade-offs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and it addresses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probing extended scalar sectors with precision e + e - → Zh and Higgs diphoton studies

We compute the one-loop corrections to σ(e + e - → Zh) arising from representative extended Standard Model scalar sector scenarios. According to the new scalar SU(2)L representations, we consider the inert doublet, real and complex triplet, quintuplet, and septuplet models. With the sub-percent level precision expected for prospective future e + e - collider measurements of σ(e + e - → Zh), studies of the Higgsstrahlung process will probe extended scalar sector particle spectrum and interactions in a manner complementary to direct searches at the Large Hadron Collider and possible future pp colliders. We also compare with the sensitivity of future Higgs diphoton decay rate measurements. We find that the σ(e + e - → Zh) and Γ(h → γγ) complementarity is particularly pronounced for the complex triplet model.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS2010

CME Initiation and Reconnection

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most massive explosions in the heliosphere, and the primary drivers of geoeffective space weather. This talk will be focused on fast CMEs, which travel at Alfvenic speeds as high as 2500 km/s. These ejections are associated with solar flares, prominence eruptions, and energetic particles accelerated near the Sun and in interplanetary space. CMEs require sufficient energy storage, in the form of magnetic stress, and rapid release of this energy. Although it is generally agreed that magnetic reconnection is the key to fast CME initiation, different models incorporate reconnection in different ways. One promising model --- the breakout scenario --- involves reconnection in two distinct yet interconnected locations: breakout reconnection ahead of the CME, and flare reconnect ion behind it. This model has been validated through 2D and 3D MHD simulations and favorable comparison with the observed properties of many fast CMEs. I will discuss what we have learned about the onset and evolution of breakout and flare reconnect ion from recent high-resolution 2D simulations of CME initiation with adaptive mesh refinement and numerical resistivity.

Karpen, Judy T.↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Unknown Hydrogen Exosphere: Space Weather Implications

Recent studies suggest that the hydrogen (H) density in the exosphere and geocorona might differ from previously assumed values by factors as large as 2. We use the SAMI3 (Sami3 is Also a Model of the Ionosphere) and Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere models to evaluate scenarios where the hydrogen density is reduced or enhanced, by a factor of 2, relative to values given by commonly used empirical models. We show that the rate of plasmasphere refilling following a geomagnetic storm varies nearly linearly with the hydrogen density. We also show that the ring current associated with a geomagnetic storm decays more rapidly when H is increased. With respect to these two space weather effects, increased exosphere hydrogen density is associated with reduced threats to space assets during and following a geomagnetic storm.

Krall, J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

NREL Price Series Developed for the ARPA-E FLECCS Program

The price data for four regions (CAISO, ERCOT, MISO-W, and PJM-W) are developed using the ReEDS to PLEXOS conversion as described in (Gagnon et al. 2020). The reference ReEDS case chosen is based on the 2020 Standard Scenario Mid-case, which uses the 2020 ReEDS model version (Cole et al. 2020; Ho et al. 2021). All ReEDS model inputs use 2020 Standard Scenarios Mid-case assumptions except for CO2 prices, which are implemented as linearly increasing CO2 price trajectories beginning at $0/tCO2 in 2020 and ending at either $100/tCO2 or $150/tCO2 in 2035 to dive capacity expansion towards a low-carbon system that could support CCS deployment. However, these scenarios also prohibit CCS deployment in this time frame so that resulting price data are not influenced by the deployment and operation of CCS itself. Implementing the ReEDS to PLEXOS conversion tool, PLEXOS is then simulated using the 2035 ReEDS infrastructure for both CO2 price scenarios, with the following model version and setup: PLEXOS Version: 8.2 Solver: Xpress-MP 35.01.01 Mixed integer optimization relative gap 1% System configuration: • Total number of nodes: 134 (consistent with ReEDS balancing areas) • Line losses enforced using piecewise linear approximation • Energy dump was enabled Price data is aggregated to the ISO/RTO level using load-weighted averages. References: Cole, Wesley, Sean Corcoran, Nathaniel Gates, Daniel Mai, Trieu, and Paritosh Das. 2020. “2020 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook.” NREL/TP-6A20-77442. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/77442.pdf. Gagnon, Pieter, Will Frazier, Elaine Hale, and Wesley Cole. 2020. “Cambium Documentation: Version 2020.” NREL/TP-6A20-78239. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States). https://doi.org/10.2172/1734551. Ho, Jonathan, Jonathon Becker, Maxwell Brown, Patrick Brown, Ilya (ORCID:0000000284917814) Chernyakhovskiy, Stuart Cohen, Wesley (ORCID:000000029194065X) Cole, et al. 2021. “Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) Model Documentation: Version 2020.” NREL/TP-6A20-78195. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. https://doi.org/10.2172/1788425.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensitivity Study of Impact Risk Model Results to Thermal Radiation Damage Model for Large Objects

NASA’s Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessment model assesses the likelihood of potential damage for asteroid impact scenarios. Fast-running models are used to capture the effects of different hazards. This paper looks specifically at local ground damage hazards, including blast overpressure and thermal radiation damage, for large object impact scenarios. A sensitivity study is conducted to determine which parameters, and over what ranges, cause impact risks to become sensitive to thermal damage. Two additional thermal models with different approaches are used for comparison. The study determined the current thermal model is most sensitive to the luminous efficiency parameter that reflects the model’s uncertainty in the amount of energy contributing to the thermal radiation damage. This sensitivity was most apparent for the highest severity damage levels. Comparisons of the three models showed that in addition to sensitivities within the models, the impact risks are also sensitive to the choice of thermal model. The study results were applied to the 2023 PDC hypothetical asteroid impact scenario and parameter ranges of interest determined. At the serious damage level, luminous efficiencies above 0.006 showed a small chance of thermal playing an important role, while luminous efficiencies above 0.0008 led to thermal playing a significant role at the unsurvivable damage severity level. Study results are used to identify key areas where additional model refinement and better knowledge of asteroid properties may be important for improving damage estimates.

SMD↗

NASA NTRS2024

Sensitivity Study of Impact Risk Model Results to Thermal Radiation Damage Model for Large Objects

NASA’s Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessment model assesses the likelihood of potential damage for asteroid impact scenarios. Fast-running models are used to capture the effects of different hazards. This paper looks specifically at local ground damage hazards, including blast overpressure and thermal radiation damage, for large object impact scenarios. A sensitivity study is conducted to determine which parameters, and over what ranges, cause impact risks to become sensitive to thermal damage. Two additional thermal models with different approaches are used for comparison. The study determined the current thermal model is most sensitive to the luminous efficiency parameter that reflects the model’s uncertainty in the amount of energy contributing to the thermal radiation damage. This sensitivity was most apparent for the highest severity damage levels. Comparisons of the three models showed that in addition to sensitivities within the models, the impact risks are also sensitive to the choice of thermal model. The study results were applied to the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference hypothetical asteroid impact scenario and parameter ranges of interest determined. At the serious damage level, luminous efficiencies above 0.006 showed a small chance of thermal playing an important role, while luminous efficiencies above 0.0008 led to thermal playing a significant role at the unsurvivable damage severity level. Study results are used to identify key areas where additional model refinement and better knowledge of asteroid properties may be important for improving damage estimates.

SMD↗

DOE OSTI2022

Storage Futures Study: Grid Operational Impacts of Widespread Storage Deployment

This report, the fifth in the Storage Futures Study series, uses cost-driven scenarios from the ReEDS model as a starting point to examine the operational impacts of grid-scale storage deployment and relationships between this deployment and the contribution of variable renewable energy. We use commercial production cost modeling software to evaluate hourly operation of five scenarios that reach between 210 gigawatts (GW) and 930 GW of installed storage by 2050. We find that storage plays an important role in these power systems between now and 2050 - by storing the lowest-marginal cost generation (often, overgeneration from solar or wind plants) and generating energy during the highest net load periods of the day and year. Storage helps with the integration of variable renewable energy and by providing an important resource to provide continued reliable power.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2012

Constraints on the Nature of CID-42: Recoil Kick or Supermassive Black Hole Pair?

The galaxy CXOC J100043.1+020637, also known as CID-42, is a highly unusual object. An apparent galaxy merger remnant, it displays signatures of both an inspiraling, kiloparsecscale active galactic nucleus (AGN) pair and of a recoiling AGN with a kick velocity approximately greater than 1300 km s(exp -1). Among recoiling AGN candidates, CID-42 alone has both spatial offsets (in optical and X-ray bands) and spectroscopic offsets. In order to constrain the relative likelihood of both scenarios, we develop models using hydrodynamic galaxy merger simulations coupled with radiative transfer calculations. Our gas-rich, major merger models are generally well matched to the galactic morphology and to the inferred stellar mass and star formation rate. We show that a recoiling supermassive black hole (SMBH) in CID-42 should be observable as an AGN at the time of observation. However, in order for the recoiling AGN to produce narrow-line emission, it must be observed shortly after the kick while it still inhabits a dense gaseous region, implying a large total kick velocity (vk approximately greater than 2000 km s(exp -1)). For the dual AGN scenario, an unusually large broad-line offset is required, and the best match to the observed morphology requires a galaxy that is less luminous than CID-42. Further, the lack of X-ray emission from one of the two optical nuclei is not easily attributed to an intrinsically quiescent SMBH or to a Compton-thick galactic environment. While the current data do not allow either the recoiling or the dual AGN scenario for CID-42 to be excluded, our models highlight the most relevant parameters for distinguishing these possibilities with future observations. In particular, high-quality, spatially-resolved spectra that can pinpoint the origin of the broad and narrow line features will be critical for determining the nature of this unique source.

Blecha, Laura↗

DOE OSTI2023

Search for dark matter produced in association with a Higgs boson decaying to tau leptons at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for dark matter produced in association with a Higgs boson in final states with two hadronically decaying τ-leptons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis uses 139 fb -1 of proton-proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV collected by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider between 2015 and 2018. No evidence of physics beyond the Standard Model is found. The results are interpreted in terms of a 2HDM+a model featuring two scalar Higgs doublets and a pseudoscalar singlet field. Exclusion limits on the parameters of the model in selected benchmark scenarios are derived at 95% confidence level. Model-independent limits are also set on the visible cross-section for processes beyond the Standard Model producing missing transverse momentum in association with a Higgs boson decaying into τ-leptons.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

No Escaping Helium from 55 Cnc e

We search for escaping helium from the hot super-Earth 55 Cnc e by taking high-resolution spectra of the 1083 nm line during two transits using Keck/NIRSPEC. We detect no helium absorption down to a 90% upper limit of 250 ppm in excess absorption or 0.27 mÅ in equivalent width. This corresponds to a mass-loss rate of less than ∼10{sup 9} g s{sup −1} assuming a Parker wind model with a plausible exosphere temperature of 5000–6000 K, although the precise constraint is heavily dependent on model assumptions. We consider both hydrogen- and helium-dominated atmospheric compositions and find similar bounds on the mass-loss rate in both scenarios. Our hydrodynamical models indicate that if a lightweight atmosphere exists on 55 Cnc e, our observations would have easily detected it. Together with the nondetection of Lyα absorption by Ehrenreich et al., our helium nondetection indicates that 55 Cnc e either never accreted a primordial atmosphere in the first place or lost its primordial atmosphere shortly after the dissipation of the gas disk.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2020

ROMAN CGI Testbed WFSC Modeling and Validation

Optical diffraction and wavefront sensing and control (WFSC) models validated against the high-fidelity Roman Space Telescope Coronagraph Instrument (CGI) testbed play a key role in mask design selection and the verification of many requirements that cannot be accomplished until the observatory is in orbit. We have been steadily improving our model fidelity for the as-built CGI testbed system, demonstrating recently good agreement between measurements and model predictions while validating the Hybrid Lyot Coronagraph’s (HLC) performance using the in-orbit high order wavefront sensing and control (HOWFSC) operational scenario. We present modeling and testbed validation results that explain the reason many testbed WFSC iterations were needed for HLC in the past. A new, direct application of model-generated deformable mirror (DM) solutions has since been successfully demonstrated on the testbed with significant speed and performance improvement. The benefit of using such a solution opens up new model-based WFSC approaches for CGI. This can greatly reduce flight risk from potentially insufficient ground solution generation due to schedule or cost constraints or from unexpected post-delivery changes.

Poberezhskiy, Ilya↗

DOE OSTI2022

Storage Futures Study: Grid Operational Impacts of Widespread Storage Deployment

battery↗