Model predictive control simulations with block-hierarchical differential–algebraic process models
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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
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Modeling and simulation of oxygen transport in high burnup LWR fuel
We have developed a formulation for oxygen transport in uranium dioxide nuclear fuel that accounts for the effects of irradiation. The overall simulation combines the evolving isotopic composition, thermochemistry, and oxygen transport in irradiated fuel. The driving forces for oxygen transport are computed from local thermodynamic equilibrium calculations and account for the effects of temperature gradients and composition, including fission products. The proposed method provides a mechanism for including complex thermodynamic models of nuclear fuel in modeling of mass redistribution, and alleviates difficulties associated with the common thermodiffusion formulation. Here, the transport model has been implemented within the nuclear fuel performance code BISON utilizing the thermochemistry code Thermochimica, with burnup calculations provided by the ORIGEN isotopic transmutation code.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Evaluating Pretreatment Strategies with Modeling for Reducing Scaling Potential of Reverse Osmosis Concentrate: Insights from Ion Exchange and Activated Alumina
Reverse osmosis concentrate (ROC) treatment is critical for enhancing water recovery and minimizing concentrate volume for disposal, especially in regions facing water scarcity. This study investigates the application of ion exchange (IX) resins and activated alumina (AA) as pretreatment strategies to mitigate scaling in ROC due to high concentrations of total dissolved solids, hardness (Ca 2+ and Mg 2+ ), and silica. Through a series of Langmuir isotherms, continuous column experiments, and model simulation, two types of strong acid cation IX resins and three types of strong base anion IX resins alongside three types of AA were evaluated. Results indicate that AA exhibits superior performance in silica removal, achieving up to a 65% reduction and maintaining performance for up to 800 bed volume without reaching saturation. Model simulation of a secondary reverse osmosis treating ROC after the IX and AA pretreatment indicated an additional water recovery of ~70% using antiscalants. This study demonstrates the potential for achieving higher water recovery while also identifying opportunities for pretreatment improvement. Challenges such as the limited IX capacity treating ROC, which requires frequent regeneration and increases operational costs, along with the restricted regeneration capacity of AA, underscore the importance of innovation. These findings emphasize the critical need for developing advanced materials and optimized strategies to further enhance the efficiency of ROC treatment processes.
activated alumina↗
Assessment of a Detailed Biomass Pyrolysis Kinetic Scheme in Multiscale Simulations of a Single-Particle Pyrolyzer and a Pilot-Scale Entrained Flow Pyrolyzer
A detailed biomass pyrolysis kinetic scheme was assessed in the multiscale simulations of a single-particle pyrolyzer with slow pyrolysis and a pilot-scale entrained flow pyrolyzer with fast pyrolysis. The detailed kinetic scheme of biomass pyrolysis developed by the CRECK group consists of 32 reactions and 58 species. A multiscale simulation model was developed, where the CRECK kinetics was employed to simulate biomass pyrolysis reactions, a one-dimensional particle model was utilized to simulate the intraparticle transport phenomena, and the particle-in-cell (PIC) model was employed to simulate the hydrodynamics. The multiscale model was first applied to simulate a single-particle pyrolysis experiment. The simulation with nonisothermal particles matched the experimental data better than the simulation with isothermal particles. Then the multiscale model was applied to simulate the pilot-scale entrained flow pyrolyzer. In this case, the simulation with isothermal particles matched the experimental data better than the simulation with nonisothermal particles. The reason for this difference might be that the kinetics itself already partially included the intraparticle transport effect as it was fitted using both TGA data (slow pyrolysis of small size biomass) and fluidized bed data (fast pyrolysis of relatively large size biomass). This study provides some insights into biomass pyrolysis kinetics development and pyrolyzer multiscale simulation for a future study.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Wetter Summers Mitigated Temperature Stress on Rocky Mountain Forests During the Last Interglacial Warm Period
Recent droughts have highlighted concerns of how rising summer temperatures will increase tree mortality rates across the western United States. We analyzed subfossil wood samples from Colorado dating to the last interglacial to assess the response of two common conifers to a previous warm period. The trees experienced comparable growth rates and water use efficiency during the interglacial relative to modern despite evidence from model simulations of a ~30% increase in evaporative demand during the peak of the growing season. High-resolution isotopic analysis of the wood samples show an enrichment in the late season cellulosic δ 18 O relative to modern samples, which we find was associated with increased reliance on summer rain. The data are consistent with model simulations showing the interglacial was associated with wetter summers across the western US. Here, we propose enhanced summer rain during this period compensated for drought stress imposed by higher evaporative demand.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
The Influence of African Easterly Waves on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Landfall in Large Ensembles
African easterly waves (AEWs) are an important precursor or “seed” for Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs), with 60%–80% of major hurricanes observed to originate from AEWs. However, climate model simulations indicate that AEWs are not necessary to maintain annual Atlantic TC frequency. Furthermore, small ensembles suggest that AEWs may impact the spatial distribution and landfall of Atlantic TCs. Here, we investigated the influence of AEWs on the spatial distribution of Atlantic TC tracks and landfall using 50-member ensembles of TC-permitting regional model simulations for five hurricane seasons characterized by different levels of TC activity. The control simulations are seasonal hindcasts in which AEWs were prescribed through the eastern lateral boundary condition using reanalysis. In the experiments, we suppressed AEWs by applying a 2–10 day filter to the eastern lateral boundary condition. In response to AEW suppression, we discovered statistically significant increases in Atlantic TC frequency (10%–26%) and landfall (16%–44%), a westward shift in TC genesis location and tracks with increased landfall over the Caribbean Islands, southwestern Gulf Coast, and southeastern US coast, and increases in mid-tropospheric relative humidity in the main development region. In addition, we evaluated TC genesis mechanisms in the absence of AEWs and found evidence that the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) intensified and extended northward, resulting in ITCZ wave-breaking that shed vortices which served as TC seeds. By uncovering the connections between TC seed types and the likelihood of TC landfall, this research can provide Atlantic coastal and island communities with useful information to prepare for TC impacts.
African easterly waves↗
Implications of different income distributions for future residential energy demand in the U.S.
Abstract Future income distribution will affect energy demand and its interactions with various societal priorities. Most future model simulations assume a single average consumer and thus miss this important demand determinant. We quantify long-term implications of alternative future income distributions for state-level residential energy demand, investment, greenhouse gas, and pollutant emission patterns in the United States (U.S.) by incorporating income quintiles into the residential energy sector of the Global Change Analysis Model with 50-state disaggregation. We find that if the income distribution within each U.S. state becomes more egalitarian than present, what means that the difference on income between the richest and poorest decreases over time, residential energy demand could be 10% (4%–14% across states) higher in 2100. This increase of residential energy demand will directly reduce energy poverty, with a very modest increment on economywide CO 2 emissions (1%–2%). On the other hand, if U.S. states transition to a less equitable income distribution than present, with the difference between richest and poorest increasing over time, residential energy demand could be 19% (12%–26% across states) lower. While this study focuses on a single sector, we conclude that to improve understanding of synergies and tradeoffs across multiple societal goals such as energy access, emissions, and investments, future model simulations should explicitly consider subregional income distribution impacts.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Multiphysics Coupling Methods for Molten Salt Reactor Modeling and Simulation in VERA
New multiphysics coupling capabilities for molten salt reactor (MSR) analysis have been developed in the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA). This development consisted of two main efforts. First, a generic species transport module was added in the CTF code, which is the thermal-hydraulics (TH) code for VERA. This module uses the velocity fields for which CTF solves during the TH calculation to transport species through the core and around the primary loop. Additionally, a gas sparging model has been added to CTF to model the movement of certain species, namely, fission products such as xenon gas, to transport between the molten salt and gas bubbles present in the salt. The second effort in this development was coupling this capability to VERA’s neutron transport code MPACT. This effort focused on coupling the detailed TH transport models in CTF to MPACT to account for feedback effects in the neutron transport calculations. Finally, the thermochemistry code Thermochimica has also been coupled to VERA. Thermochimica performs pointwise calculations for chemical potential and Gibbs free energy and determines what phases are produced by the temperature, pressure, and elemental concentrations at different locations in the primary loop. These capabilities are demonstrated using a model of the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE). Furthermore, this reactor operated at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in the 1960s, providing sources of experimental data that were used to develop the model. Various combinations of species were modeled using VERA’s new multiphysics coupling capabilities. Species distributions and reactivity effects behaved as expected for the MSRE model, demonstrating that the coupling is behaving correctly and causing appropriate feedback. The results of these calculations show the potential for VERA to be used for a wide variety of MSR analyses.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Study of impacts of two types of cellular aging on the yeast bud morphogenesis
Understanding the mechanisms of the cellular aging processes is crucial for attempting to extend organismal lifespan and for studying age-related degenerative diseases. Yeast cells divide through budding, providing a classical biological model for studying cellular aging. With their powerful genetics, relatively short cell cycle, and well-established signaling pathways also found in animals, yeast cells offer valuable insights into the aging process. Recent experiments suggested the existence of two aging modes in yeast characterized by nucleolar and mitochondrial declines, respectively. By analyzing experimental data, this study shows that cells evolving into those two aging modes behave differently when they are young. While buds grow linearly in both modes, cells that consistently generate spherical buds throughout their lifespan demonstrate greater efficacy in controlling bud size and growth rate at young ages. A three-dimensional multiscale chemical-mechanical model was developed and used to suggest and test hypothesized impacts of aging on bud morphogenesis. Experimentally calibrated model simulations showed that during the early stage of budding, tubular bud shape in one aging mode could be generated by locally inserting new materials at the bud tip, a process guided by the polarized Cdc42 signal. Furthermore, the aspect ratio of the tubular bud could be stabilized during the late stage as observed in experiments in this work. The model simulation results suggest that the localization of new cell surface material insertion, regulated by chemical signal polarization, could be weakened due to cellular aging in yeast and other cell types, leading to the change and stabilization of the bud aspect ratio.
Tsai, Kevin↗
Gridded Sub-daily Climate Forcings for North America Based on Daymet and ERA5 (Daymet-ERA5)
To support high spatial and temporal resolution land surface modeling, this dataset provides hourly time step historic weather forcing at 1-km spatial resolution for the entire North America. The latest Daymet V4 data provides gridded historic daily weather observations at 1-km spatial resolution from 1980 to 2024. Using sub-daily temporal information from the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis, Daymet was further temporally downscaled to hourly time steps and provided in the format required for land surface model simulations. The process of temporal downscaling preserves the relative magnitude in each hourly time step from ERA5 while maintaining the total and average values from Daymet for each day. This results in a blended 1980-2024 Daymet-ERA5 dataset. Available variables include surface air temperature, precipitation, specific humidity, shortwave and longwave radiation, wind speed, and pressure. These data can be used as a high-resolution meteorological forcing dataset to support high-resolution land surface modeling where accurate meteorological forcing datasets built from historic observations and/or reanalysis datasets are desirable.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Improving Subsurface Stress Characterization for Carbon Dioxide Storage Projects by Incorporating Machine Learning Techniques
The overall objective of this project is to develop a framework for reliable characterization and prediction of the state of stress in the overburden and underburden (including the basement) in CO 2 storage reservoirs using machine learning and integrated geomechanics and geophysical methods. Specifically, we propose to develop workflow encompassing of technologies and/or methods to predict stress and pressure changes due to CO 2 injection in an active tertiary recovery site and their impacts on subtle fault activation, fractures and occurrence of microseismic events and compare responses to field observations. In this project, we anticipate using dataset from the Farnsworth field Unit (FWU) which is operated by Purdure Petroleum. A novel elastic-waveform VSP inversion technique will be used to estimate high-resolution spatial and temporal changes of elastic moduli in CO 2 storage reservoirs, which will be combined with velocity-stress relationship derived from laboratory tests to obtain subsurface pressure and stress. Clustered microseismic data will be jointly inverted for improved focal mechanisms. Least-squares reverse-time migration of microseismic waveform data will be performed to directly image fracture/fault zones. Additionally, a deep neural network machine learning technique with convolutional and recurrent layers will be used for learning the spectro-temporal structures in microseismic waveforms. The results of this geotechnical data analysis will be integrated to develop a high-resolution 3D mechanical earth model extending from the overburden sealing formations to the underburden including the basement. Mechanical properties will be derived through integration of mechanical logs, tests, available results from chemo-mechanical laboratory tests, and elastic inversion of seismic data using a combination of Bayesian and stochastic methods as well as machine learning technique. Failure features (faults/fractures) will be represented and/or modeled based on seismic and core data analysis. A transient hydrodynamic-geomechanical model will be developed through coupling with the calibrated FWU reservoir simulation model. The full physics coupled model will be used to train a reduced order proxy model using machine learning algorithm for estimating stress which will then be used with appropriate constitutive relationships and forward seismological models to simulate pressure changes and induced microseismicity. An advanced optimization framework will be developed to perform a history match to minimize error between field observations and simulated. The history matched proxy model will be verified against the full-physics equivalent. The field observations that will be used in the coupled model calibration process include pressure/stress inverted from VSP, moment magnitude from microseismic analysis, real time downhole pressure measurements, production and injection data. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis will be performed to characterize the impact of model parameter uncertainty on stress estimates. The proposed project will have significant impact on future field implementation of the proposed technology. Because the project field site is an ongoing CO 2 EOR development, the value of the new technology will be demonstrated in an operational context and evaluated as a viable risk mitigation strategy. Cost/benefit will be evaluated together with the various commercial incentives for CO 2 sequestration available to oil and gas operators. The extensive available dataset and ongoing data acquisition under the SWP Phase III work plan provides flexibility for investigation of multiple approaches and reduces technical risk.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Assessment of CO 2 trapping mechanisms in partially depleted oil-bearing sands
The goal of this work is to evaluate various CO 2 sequestration mechanisms occurring in the Morrow B Sandstone in the Farnsworth Unit. A history-matched numerical simulation model was created using extensive geological, petrophysical, and operational data collected from the field. The numerical model is competent to investigate the impact of residual, structural-stratigraphic, solubility, and mineral trapping mechanisms on the fluid transportation dynamics and petrophysical property variations. The model forecasts the field response of 20 years of WAG injections. Afterward, all wells were shut-in, and the reservoir was allowed to evolve for 1000 years to investigate the fate of injected CO 2 . In this paper, we assess the impacts of various trapping mechanisms on oil recovery and CO 2 storage efficacy. By analyzing the results reported from the numerical simulation model, the in-situ fluid composition and mineralogy changes are also investigated. More importantly, we seek to confirm the petrophysical property variations due to the CO 2 injection with observations from laboratory measurements. The experiences gained from this study provide valuable insights regarding physiochemical storage induced by the CO 2 injection activities and serve as a benchmark case for future CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects involving reactive solute transport.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Spatially dependent modeling and simulation of runaway electron mitigation in DIII-D
New simulations with the Kinetic Orbit Runaway electron (RE) Code (KORC) show RE deconfinement losses to the wall during plasma scrape off are the primary current dissipation mechanism in DIII-D experiments with high-Z impurity injection, and not collisional slowing down. The majority of simulations also exhibit an increase in the RE beam energy due to acceleration by the induced toroidal electric field, even while the RE beam current is decreasing. In this study, KORC integrates RE orbits using the relativistic guiding center equations of motion and incorporates time-sequenced, experimental reconstructions of the magnetic and electric fields and line integrated electron density to construct spatiotemporal models of electron and partially ionized impurity transport in the companion plasma. Comparisons of experimental current evolution and KORC results demonstrate the importance of including Coulomb collisions with partially ionized impurity physics, initial RE energy, pitch angle, and spatial distributions, and spatiotemporal electron and partially ionized impurity transport. The research presented here provides an initial quantification of the efficacy of RE mitigation via injected impurities and identification of the critical role played by loss of confinement due to plasma scrape off on the inner wall as compared to the relatively slow collisional damping.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Enhanced Data Efficiency Using Deep Neural Networks and Gaussian Processes for Aerodynamic Design Optimization
Adjoint-based optimization methods are attractive for aerodynamic shape design primarily due to their computational costs being independent of the dimensionality of the input space and their ability to generate high-fidelity gradients that can then be used in a gradient-based optimizer. This makes them very well suited for high-fidelity simulation based aerodynamic shape optimization of highly parametrized geometries such as aircraft wings. However, the development of adjoint-based solvers involve careful mathematical treatment and their implementation require detailed software development. Furthermore, they can become prohibitively expensive when multiple optimization problems are being solved, each requiring multiple restarts to circumvent local optima. In this work, we propose a machine learning enabled, surrogate-based framework that replaces the expensive adjoint solver, without compromising on predicting predictive accuracy. Specifically, we first train a deep neural network (DNN) from training data generated from evaluating the high-fidelity simulation model on a model-agnostic design of experiments on the geometry shape parameters. The optimum shape may then be computed by using a gradient-based optimizer coupled with the trained DNN. Subsequently, we also perform a gradient-free Bayesian optimization, where the trained DNN is used as the prior mean. We observe that the latter framework (DNN-BO) improves upon the DNN-only based optimization strategy for the same computational cost. Overall, this framework predicts the true optimum with very high accuracy, while requiring far fewer high-fidelity function calls compared to the adjoint-based method. Furthermore, we show that multiple optimization problems can be solved with the same machine learning model with high accuracy, to amortize the offline costs associated with constructing our models. Our methodology finds applications in the early stages of aerospace design. (C) 2021 Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.
Renganathan, S. Ashwin↗
Stoichiometrically coupled carbon and nitrogen cycling in the MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization model version 1.0 (MIMICS-CN v1.0)
Explicit consideration of microbial physiology in soil biogeochemical models that represent coupled carbon–nitrogen dynamics presents opportunities to deepen understanding of ecosystem responses to environmental change. The MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization (MIMICS) model explicitly represents microbial physiology and physicochemical stabilization of soil carbon (C) on regional and global scales. Here we present a new version of MIMICS with coupled C and nitrogen (N) cycling through litter, microbial, and soil organic matter (SOM) pools. The model was parameterized and validated against C and N data from the Long-Term Inter-site Decomposition Experiment Team (LIDET; six litter types, 10 years of observations, and 13 sites across North America). The model simulates C and N losses from litterbags in the LIDET study with reasonable accuracy (C: R 2 =0.63; N: R 2 =0.29), which is comparable with simulations from the DAYCENT model that implicitly represents microbial activity (C: R 2 =0.67; N: R 2 =0.30). Subsequently, we evaluated equilibrium values of stocks (total soil C and N, microbial biomass C and N, inorganic N) and microbial process rates (soil heterotrophic respiration, N mineralization) simulated by MIMICS-CN across the 13 simulated LIDET sites against published observations from other continent-wide datasets. We found that MIMICS-CN produces equilibrium values in line with measured values, showing that the model generates plausible estimates of ecosystem soil biogeochemical dynamics across continental-scale gradients. MIMICS-CN provides a platform for coupling C and N projections in a microbially explicit model, but experiments still need to identify the physiological and stoichiometric characteristics of soil microbes, especially under environmental change scenarios.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
A kinetic model for simulating non-equilibrium mass transport in oxides applied to hematite growth under irradiation
We propose an approach to simulating the dynamic evolution and transport of charged point defects within and through the oxide scales that form during corrosion. The method follows the cluster dynamics formalism widely adopted for radiation damage in solids, which can apply in both quasi-static and far from equilibrium conditions, such as in radiation environments. By treating each charged defect as a cluster of an atomic defect and associated unit charges, the proposed model flexibly allows charge state transitions and shifts in the Fermi level by absorption and emission of charge carriers from point defects in a reaction network with rates constrained by local equilibrium. Applying this model to hematite predicts changes in self-diffusion and oxidation kinetics in irradiation environments, surprisingly showing reduced oxidation rates in many conditions, despite enhanced self-diffusion. In conclusion, the origin of this effect lies in a change in Fermi level induced by excess vacancies formed under irradiation, which in turn suppresses the transport of cation interstitials which facilitate hematite growth.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Evaluating pulse-shaping capabilities of next-generation pulsed power architectures
This project evaluated the pulse shaping capabilities of next-generation pulsed power (NGPP) architectures. NGPP architectures share several common attributes including multiple independent pulse-generation lines, a radial water-insulated impedance transformer, and a central vacuum insulated load region. A multi-module circuit model was developed, incorporating independent pulse-generation lines and a 2-D transmission line mesh of the radial impedance transformer to assess the effects of azimuthal asymmetry in pulse-shaped experiments. Circuit model simulations demonstrated that NGPP architectures are able to produce the the desired current pulse shapes for exemplar NGPP experiments. Additionally, the project explored automated methods for experiment design, including derivative -ree optimization and machine learning. Pulse-shaped experiments require designers to determine machine parameters that reliably produce the desired current pulse at the load, a process that typically relies on expert knowledge and iterative adjustments using the Z circuit model. Given the increased complexity of NGPP systems, this manual approach may be impractical. While the evaluated methods do not eliminate the need for manual iteration, they can reduce the time required for experiment design. Derivative-free optimization automates much of the trial-and-error process, providing a close starting point for manual adjustments or making small modifications to near-final designs. Meanwhile, deep neural network methods can generate a good qualitative match to the desired current pulse in under one second without requiring circuit model simulations.
42 ENGINEERING↗
A Pacific Tropical Decadal Variability Challenge for Climate Models
Understanding and forecasting Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability (TPDV) strongly rely on climate model simulations. Using a Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) diagnostic approach, we reveal Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models have significant challenges in reproducing the spatial structure and dominant mechanisms of TPDV. Specifically, while the models' ensemble mean pattern of TPDV resembles that of observations, the spread across models is very large and most models show significant differences from observations. In observations, removing the coupling between extratropics and tropics reduces TPDV by ~60%–70%, and removing the tropical thermocline variability makes the central tropical Pacific a key center of action for TPDV and El Niño Southern Oscillation variability. These characteristics are only confirmed in a subset of models. Differences between observations and simulations are outside the range of natural internal TPDV noise and pose important questions regarding our ability to model the impacts of natural internal low-frequency variability superimposed on long-term climate change.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗