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At least 505 records · Page 28

Using ARM Observations to Evaluate Climate Model Simulations of Land-Atmosphere Coupling on the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Several independent measurements of warm-season soil moisture and surface atmospheric variables recorded at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) research facility are used to estimate the terrestrial component of land-atmosphere coupling (LAC) strength and its regional uncertainty. The observations reveal substantial variation in coupling strength, as estimated from three soil moisture measurements at a single site, as well as across six other sites having varied soil and land cover types. The observational estimates then serve as references for evaluating SGP terrestrial coupling strength in the Community Atmospheric Model coupled to the Community Land Model. These coupled model components are operated in both a free-running mode and in a controlled configuration, where the atmospheric and land states are reinitialized daily, so that they do not drift very far from observations. Although the controlled simulation deviates less from the observed surface climate than its free-running counterpart, the terrestrial LAC in both configurations is much stronger and displays less spatial variability than the SGP observational estimates. Preliminary investigation of vegetation leaf area index (LAI) substituted for soil moisture suggests that the overly strong coupling between model soil moisture and surface atmospheric variables is associated with too much evaporation from bare ground and too little from the vegetation cover. Lastly, these results imply that model surface characteristics such as LAI, as well as the physical parameterizations involved in the coupling of the land and atmospheric components, are likely to be important sources of the problematical LAC behaviors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Long-Term Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations Using Satellite Radiance Observations and Multi-Frequency Satellite Simulators

This paper proposes a methodology known as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Triple-Sensor Three-step Evaluation Framework (T3EF) for the systematic evaluation of precipitating cloud types and microphysics in a cloud-resolving model (CRM). T3EF utilizes multi-frequency satellite simulators and novel statistics of multi-frequency radiance and backscattering signals observed from the TRMM satellite. Specifically, T3EF compares CRM and satellite observations in the form of combined probability distributions of precipitation radar (PR) reflectivity, polarization-corrected microwave brightness temperature (Tb), and infrared Tb to evaluate the candidate CRM. T3EF is used to evaluate the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model for cases involving the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) and Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX). This evaluation reveals that the GCE properly captures the satellite-measured frequencies of different precipitating cloud types in the SCSMEX case but underestimates the frequencies of deep convective and deep stratiform types in the KWAJEX case. Moreover, the GCE tends to simulate excessively large and abundant frozen condensates in deep convective clouds as inferred from the overestimated GCE-simulated radar reflectivities and microwave Tb depressions. Unveiling the detailed errors in the GCE s performance provides the best direction for model improvements.

Matsui, Toshihisa↗

A fluid model simulation of a simplified plasma limiter based on spectral-element time-domain method

A simplified plasma limiter prototype is proposed and the fluid model coupled with Maxwell's equations is established to describe the operating mechanism of plasma limiter. A three-dimensional (3-D) simplified sandwich structure plasma limiter model is analyzed with the spectral-element time-domain (SETD) method. The field breakdown threshold of air and argon at different frequency is predicted and compared with the experimental data and there is a good agreement between them for gas microwave breakdown discharge problems. Numerical results demonstrate that the two-layer plasma limiter (plasma-slab-plasma) has better protective characteristics than a one-layer plasma limiter (slab-plasma-slab) with the same length of gas chamber.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Evaluating ecosystem water use efficiency and recovery dynamics during flash droughts: insights from observations and model simulations

Flash droughts (FD), rapidly emerging in a warming future, disrupt ecosystems, agriculture, and water security. Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE), the ratio of gross primary production (GPP) to actual evapotranspiration (AET), balances carbon assimilation and water loss. FD rapidly disrupts this balance, making WUE critical for assessing plant stress and recovery. Here, this study investigates the dynamics of landscape-scale WUE, and the components of GPP and AET under FD utilizing both observed data from the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux site (US-MOz) and version 2 of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Earth, Energy, Exascale System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELMv2). Observations and simulations reveal GPP as dominant for WUE during earlier FD events (2005, 2007, 2012), shifting to AET in recent events (2014, 2018). This agreement indicates that the ELM can capture the shifting dynamics of GPP and AET in regulating WUE under FD conditions. However, the ELM systematically underestimates both GPP and AET and does so in a manner that does not preserve their ratio. As a result, WUE is also underestimated, suggesting that GPP is more strongly underestimated than AET. Furthermore, the ELM also underestimates the speed of GPP recovery, producing an artificially prolonged GPP recovery time following FD events. Observed environmental drivers such as vapor pressure deficit (VPD), soil moisture (SM), and predawn leaf water potential (PLWP) effectively predict WUE, but ELM primarily highlights SM, underestimating VPD’s role. This study demonstrates that relying solely on soil moisture fails to capture the rapid hydraulic recovery observed in PLWP, underscoring the necessity of integrating plant hydraulics into land surface models to improve flash drought predictability.

Evapotranspiration↗

Generic solar photovoltaic system dynamic simulation model specification

This document is intended to serve as a specification for generic solar photovoltaic (PV) system positive-sequence dynamic models to be implemented by software developers and approved by the WECC MVWG for use in bulk system dynamic simulations in accordance with NERC MOD standards. Two specific dynamic models are included in the scope of this document. The first, a Central Station PV System model, is intended to capture the most important dynamic characteristics of large scale (> 10 MW) PV systems with a central Point of Interconnection (POI) at the transmission level. The second, a Distributed PV System model, is intended to represent an aggregation of smaller, distribution-connected systems that comprise a portion of a composite load that might be modeled at a transmission load bus.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Matrix-Model Simulations Using Quantum Computing, Deep Learning, and Lattice Monte Carlo

Matrix quantum mechanics plays various important roles in theoretical physics, such as a holographic description of quantum black holes, and it underpins the only practical numerical approach to the study of complex high-dimensional supergravity theories. Understanding quantum black holes and the role of entanglement in a holographic setup is of paramount importance for the realization of a quantum theory of gravity. Moreover, a complete numerical understanding of the holographic duality and the emergence of geometric space-time features from microscopic degrees of freedom could pave the way for new discoveries in quantum information science. Euclidean lattice Monte Carlo simulations are the de facto numerical tool for understanding the spectrum of large matrix models and have been used to test the holographic duality. However, they are not tailored to extract dynamical properties or even the quantum wave function of the ground state of matrix models. Quantum computing and deep learning provide potentially useful approaches to study the dynamics of matrix quantum mechanics. If successful in the context of matrix models, these rapidly improving numerical techniques could become the new Swiss army knife of quantum gravity practitioners. In this paper, we perform the first systematic survey for quantum computing and deep-learning approaches to matrix quantum mechanics, comparing them to lattice Monte Carlo simulations. These provide baseline benchmarks before addressing more complicated problems. In particular, we test the performance of each method by calculating the low-energy spectrum.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

High-Resolution Tropical Channel Model Simulations of Tropical Cyclone Climatology and Intraseasonal-to-Interannual Variability

We tailored a tropical channel configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to study tropical cyclone (TC) activity and associated climate variabilities. This tropical channel model (TCM) covers from 30°S to 50°N at 27-km horizontal resolution, with physics parameterizations carefully selected to achieve more realistic simulations of TCs and large-scale climate mean states. In this work we performed 15-member ensembles of retrospective simulations from 1982 to 2016 hurricane seasons. A thorough comparison with observations demonstrates that the TCM yields significant skills in simulating TC activity climatology and variabilities in each basin, as well as TC physical structures. The correlation of the ensemble averaged accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) with observations in the western North Pacific (WNP), eastern North Pacific (ENP), and North Atlantic (NAT) is 0.80, 0.64, and 0.61, respectively, but is insignificant in the north Indian Ocean (NIO). Moreover, the TCM-simulated modulations of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on the large-scale environment and TC genesis also agree well with observations. To examine the TCM’s potential for seasonal TC prediction, the model is used to forecast the 2017 and 2018 hurricane seasons, using bias-corrected sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the CFSv2 seasonal prediction results. The TCM accurately predicts the hyperactive 2017 NAT hurricane season and near-normal WNP and ENP hurricane seasons when initialized in May. In addition, the TCM accurately predicts TC activity in the NAT and WNP during the 2018 season, but underpredicts ENP TC activity, in association with a poor ENSO forecast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A modular BLSS simulation model

The coordination of material flows in earth's biosphere is largely made possible by the buffering effect of huge material reservoirs. Without similarly-sized buffers, a bioregenerative life support system (BLSS) for extraterrestrial use will be faced with coordination problems more acute than those in any ecosystem found on earth. A related problem in BLSS design is providing an interface between the various life-support processors, one that will allow for their coordination while still allowing for system expansion. A modular model is presented of a BLSS that interfaces system processors only with the material storage reservoirs, allowing those reservoirs to act as the principal buffers in the system and thus minimizing difficulties with processor coordination. The modular nature of the model allows independent development of the detailed submodels that exist within the model framework. Using this model, BLSS dynamics were investigated under normal conditions and under various failure modes. Partial and complete failures of various components, such as the waste processor or the plants themselves, drive transient responses in the model system, allowing examination of the effectiveness of the system reservoirs as buffers. The results from simulations of this sort will help to determine control strategies and BLSS design requirements. An evolved version of this model could be used as an interactive control aid in a future BLSS.

Rummel, John D.↗

Theoretical Tools and Software for Modeling, Simulation and Control Design of Rocket Test Facilities

A rocket test stand and associated subsystems are complex devices whose operation requires that certain preparatory calculations be carried out before a test. In addition, real-time control calculations must be performed during the test, and further calculations are carried out after a test is completed. The latter may be required in order to evaluate if a particular test conformed to specifications. These calculations are used to set valve positions, pressure setpoints, control gains and other operating parameters so that a desired system behavior is obtained and the test can be successfully carried out. Currently, calculations are made in an ad-hoc fashion and involve trial-and-error procedures that may involve activating the system with the sole purpose of finding the correct parameter settings. The goals of this project are to develop mathematical models, control methodologies and associated simulation environments to provide a systematic and comprehensive prediction and real-time control capability. The models and controller designs are expected to be useful in two respects: 1) As a design tool, a model is the only way to determine the effects of design choices without building a prototype, which is, in the context of rocket test stands, impracticable; 2) As a prediction and tuning tool, a good model allows to set system parameters off-line, so that the expected system response conforms to specifications. This includes the setting of physical parameters, such as valve positions, and the configuration and tuning of any feedback controllers in the loop.

Richter, Hanz↗

A New Look at Stratospheric Sudden Warmings. Part II: Evaluation of Numerical Model Simulations

The simulation of major midwinter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) in six stratosphere-resolving general circulation models (GCMs) is examined. The GCMs are compared to a new climatology of SSWs, based on the dynamical characteristics of the events. First, the number, type, and temporal distribution of SSW events are evaluated. Most of the models show a lower frequency of SSW events than the climatology, which has a mean frequency of 6.0 SSWs per decade. Statistical tests show that three of the six models produce significantly fewer SSWs than the climatology, between 1.0 and 2.6 SSWs per decade. Second, four process-based diagnostics are calculated for all of the SSW events in each model. It is found that SSWs in the GCMs compare favorably with dynamical benchmarks for SSW established in the first part of the study. These results indicate that GCMs are capable of quite accurately simulating the dynamics required to produce SSWs, but with lower frequency than the climatology. Further dynamical diagnostics hint that, in at least one case, this is due to a lack of meridional heat flux in the lower stratosphere. Even though the SSWs simulated by most GCMs are dynamically realistic when compared to the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, the reasons for the relative paucity of SSWs in GCMs remains an important and open question.

Charlton, Andrew J.↗

ETARA PC version 3.3 user's guide: Reliability, availability, maintainability simulation model

A user's manual describing an interactive, menu-driven, personal computer based Monte Carlo reliability, availability, and maintainability simulation program called event time availability reliability (ETARA) is discussed. Given a reliability block diagram representation of a system, ETARA simulates the behavior of the system over a specified period of time using Monte Carlo methods to generate block failure and repair intervals as a function of exponential and/or Weibull distributions. Availability parameters such as equivalent availability, state availability (percentage of time as a particular output state capability), continuous state duration and number of state occurrences can be calculated. Initial spares allotment and spares replenishment on a resupply cycle can be simulated. The number of block failures are tabulated both individually and by block type, as well as total downtime, repair time, and time waiting for spares. Also, maintenance man-hours per year and system reliability, with or without repair, at or above a particular output capability can be calculated over a cumulative period of time or at specific points in time.

Hoffman, David J.↗

A new method to construct a horizontal resolution-dependent wind speed adjustment factor for tropical cyclones in global climate model simulations

A new method to construct a horizontal resolution-dependent wind speed adjustment factor for evaluating tropical cyclones (TCs) in global climate models (GCMs) is presented here. In contrast to the previous studies that used idealized axisymmetric wind fields, this study analyzes 48 hours of 10-second surface wind fields from 1-km TC simulations. The adjustment factor is derived from filtering the simulated TC wind fields onto various horizontal grid spacings typical of those used in GCMs. The new adjustment factor leads to TCs with greater intensity than the existing adjustment factors for horizontal grid spacings smaller than 30 km. This difference is attributed to more realistic wind fields in the TC simulations that contain highly asymmetric, localized patches of higher wind speeds instead of axisymmetric wind fields. Applying the new adjustment factor to select GCM simulations suggests the common interpretation of low-intensity bias in GCM-simulated TCs might be slightly exaggerated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Variable Lidar Ratios for Marine and Dusty Marine Using MODIS AOD Constrained Retrievals and GOCART Model Simulations and their Impact on Level 2 CALIPSO Data Products in Version 5

The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) onboard CALIPSO provided global measurements of attenuated backscatter profiles of various tropospheric aerosol species from June 2006 through June 2023. Extinction profiles are retrieved from these backscatter measurements by assuming a value for the extinction-to-backscatter or lidar ratio (LR). Up until version V4.51 of the data products, only a constant global value for each of the species has been used, spatially and temporally. However, it has been well known from various ground-based measurements that LRs of each aerosol species can potentially vary spatially as well seasonally. For the forthcoming Version 5 of the CALIPSO products, the CALIPSO team will implement variable lidar ratios at 532 nm for the species classified as “marine” and “dusty marine”. Here we present the essential elements of this scheme, which involves estimating lidar ratios by constraining Fernald solutions for the CALIOP particulate backscatter profiles using aerosol optical depths (AOD) from collocated MODIS retrievals. To account for the lack of measurements in various regions and seasons (e.g., Arctic winters), we leverage collocated model sea-salt volume fractions (SSVF) simulated by the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model and use an empirical relationship between the SSVF and LR to build hybrid climatological maps for the entire globe, i.e., using the modelled values when reliable values of the constrained LRs are not available. Initial evaluation of the resulting extinction profiles and corresponding AODs, both globally and in specific regions are presented using a limited amount of data. The primary improvement in AOD occurs in the coastal areas, like the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The estimated marine LR values in these regions are significantly higher than the constant value of 23 sr used in previous data releases, likely due to mixing with offshore pollution which results in higher AODs. Initial validation results using the CALIPSO Ocean Derived Column Optical Depth (ODCOD) retrievals and ground-based AERONET AOD measurements are presented.

CALIPSO↗

Tropical temperature trends in Atmospheric General Circulation Model simulations and the impact of uncertainties in observed SSTs

Abstract The comparison of trends in various climate indices in observations and models is of fundamental importance for judging the credibility of climate projections. Tropical tropospheric temperature trends have attracted particular attention as this comparison may suggest a model deficiency. One can think of this problem as composed of two parts: one focused on tropical surface temperature trends and the associated issues related to forcing, feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake and a second part focusing on connections between surface and tropospheric temperatures and the vertical profile of trends in temperature. Here we focus on the atmospheric component of the problem. We show that two ensembles of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory HiRAM model runs (similar results are shown for National Center for Atmospheric Research's CAM4 model) with different commonly used prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), namely, the HadISST1 and “Hurrell” data sets, have a difference in upper tropical tropospheric temperature trends (∼0.1 K/decade at 300 hPa for the period 1984–2008) that is about a factor 3 larger than expected from moist adiabatic scaling of the tropical average SST trend difference. We show that this surprisingly large discrepancy in temperature trends is a consequence of SST trend differences being largest in regions of deep convection. Further, trends, and the degree of agreement with observations, not only depend on SST data set and the particular atmospheric temperature data set but also on the period chosen for comparison. Due to the large impact on atmospheric temperatures, these systematic uncertainties in SSTs need to be resolved before the fidelity of climate models' tropical temperature trend profiles can be assessed.

Flannaghan, T. J.↗

Model simulations of rainout and washout from a warm stratiform cloud

Calculations utilizing a one-dimensional, time-dependent stratiform cloud model with parameterized microphysics to study the washout and rainout of soluble trace gases are presented. It is shown that the in-cloud concentrations of relatively insoluble species remain essentially unaffected by the presence of cloudwater and rainwater, while the concentrations of highly soluble species are rapidly depleted within the cloud. Due to this depletion it is shown that for highly soluble species the below-cloud scavenging via washout can dominate over in-cloud scavenging via rainout; in-cloud, aqueous-phase cloudwater and rainwater concentrations can differ considerably and, near the cloudbase, cloudwater concentrations can exceed rainwater concentrations by factors of two to ten.

Xing, Lin↗

Overview of Proposal on High Resolution Climate Model Simulations of Recent Hurricane and Typhoon Activity: The Impact of SSTs and the Madden Julian Oscillation

This talk gives an update on the progress and further plans for a coordinated project to carry out and analyze high-resolution simulations of tropical storm activity with a number of state-of-the-art global climate models. Issues addressed include, the mechanisms by which SSTs control tropical storm. activity on inter-annual and longer time scales, the modulation of that activity by the Madden Julian Oscillation on sub-seasonal time scales, as well as the sensitivity of the results to model formulation. The project also encourages companion coarser resolution runs to help assess resolution dependence, and. the ability of the models to capture the large-scale and long-terra changes in the parameters important for hurricane development. Addressing the above science questions is critical to understanding the nature of the variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon and its regional impacts, and thus CLIVAR RAMP fully endorses the proposed tropical storm simulation activity. The project is open to all interested organizations and investigators, and the results from the runs will be shared among the participants, as well as made available to the broader scientific community for analysis.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

Observations and wind-forced model simulations of the mean seasonal cycle in tropical Pacific sea surface topography

This paper quantitatively evaluates simulations of the mean seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean, using a multiple vertical-mode version of the Busalacchi and O'Brien (1980) linear model. The period studied (1979-1981) includes several coincident oceanic and surface wind data sets, as well as a fairly regular seasonal cycle leading into the 1982-1983 El Nino. Simulated mean seasonal cycles in dynamic height and sea level are compared with observed variations in expendable bathythermograph and island tide gauge data averaged over the same period. It was found that, although all simulations show characteristic features of the mean meridional ridge-trough structure in surface topography, simulated north and south equatorial ridges at 20 deg N and 20 deg S are much higher than those observed. Only weak equatorial ridges were generated near 4 N, and none of the simulations exhibited a significant equatorial trough. These discrepancies are attributed to limitations in model physics and to the wind forcing.

Mcphaden, Michael J.↗