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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Radiative Flux Measurements from ARISE: A Comparison with CERES Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Fluxes

Uncertainty in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation fluxes observations are larger in the Arctic than in other regions. These uncertainties are due to the low sun angles and the highly reflective, anisotropic, and heterogeneous surface conditions. Quantifying, attributing, and reducing Arctic TOA radiative flux uncertainty enables a better understanding of the rapidly changing Arctic. To advance this goal, we compare the Cloud and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) TOA radiative fluxes with Arctic Radiation-IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) campaign measurements collected in September 2014. We compare CERES TOA and aircraft radiative flux measurements using two complementary approaches: grid box average fluxes and instantaneously matched footprints. The grid box mean flux comparison indicates an agreement between CERES and aircraft measurements within 2 uncertainty (calibration and inversion) in the longwave for all five grid boxes and for four-of-five grid boxes in the shortwave; shortwave and longwave mean differences are -7.9 and +2.3 Wm‑2, respectively. The comparison of 36 instantaneously matched footprints with aircraft measurements reveals mean differences of -10.5 and 0.4 Wm‑2 in the shortwave and longwave, respectively. To further explore the persistent negative difference in the shortwave, we further quantify the effects of temporal and spatial sampling differences, angular distribution models, and scene identification to CERES-aircraft differences. Our analysis indicates that sampling differences (including scene evolution) account for an additional 1.8 and 1.7% uncertainty in the shortwave and longwave, respectively and indicates no bias. After accounting for this sampling uncertainty, all CERES-aircraft grid box mean fluxes agree within 2 uncertainty. Scene identification errors due to sea ice concentration data set differences exhibit no bias in the shortwave flux difference and indicate the possibility of substantial differences in the CERES fluxes in specific cases with large spatial heterogeneity. Considering the instantaneously matched footprints, we find that the angular distribution models account may account for up to ‑7.3 Wm-2 of the persistent CERES-aircraft shortwave flux difference due to systematic differences in the anisotropy for sea ice partly cloudy scenes. Additional analysis using a special scan model with the CERES FM2 instrument suggests a significant view zenith angle dependence of the CERES fluxes for sea ice partly cloudy scenes where shortwave fluxes systematically decrease with increasing view zenith angle; no dependence is found for other scene types. We conclude that (1) spatial heterogeneity and scene temporal evolution substantially limit our ability to use aircraft measurements to place strong constraints on CERES TOA fluxes and (2) that the representation of anisotropy in sea ice partly cloudy scenes is a significant factor contributing to the persistent negative CERES-aircraft shortwave flux difference in this comparison and require additional data to analysis fully quantify the potential bias.

Patrick C Taylor↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A comparison between CERES TOA Radiative Fluxes and Airborne Radiative Flux Measurements from ARISE

Uncertainty in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation fluxes observations are larger in the Arctic than in other regions. These uncertainties are due to the low sun angles and the highly reflective, anisotropic, and heterogeneous surface conditions. Quantifying, attributing, and reducing Arctic TOA radiative flux uncertainty enables a better understanding of the rapidly changing Arctic. To advance this goal, we compare the Cloud and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) TOA radiative fluxes with Arctic Radiation-IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) campaign measurements collected in September 2014. We compare CERES TOA and aircraft radiative flux measurements using two complementary approaches: grid box average fluxes and instantaneously matched footprints. The grid box mean flux comparison indicates an agreement between CERES and aircraft measurements within 2σ uncertainty (calibration and inversion) in the longwave for all five grid boxes and for four-of-five grid boxes in the shortwave; shortwave and longwave mean differences are -7.9 and +2.3 Wm 2, respectively. The comparison of 36 40 instantaneously matched footprints with aircraft measurements reveals mean differences of -120.25 and -1.00.4 Wm 2 in the shortwave and longwave, respectively. To further explore the persistent negative difference in the shortwave, Wwe further quantify the effects of temporal and spatial sampling differences, angular distribution models, and scene identification to CERES-aircraft differences. Our analysis indicates that sampling differences (including scene evolution) account for an additional 1.8 and 1.7% uncertainty in the shortwave and longwave, respectively and , but indicates no bias. After accounting for this sampling uncertainty, all CERES-aircraft grid box mean fluxes agree within 2σ uncertainty. Scene identification errors due to sea ice concentration data set differences exhibit no bias in the shortwave flux difference and indicate the possibility of substantial differences in the CERES fluxes in specific cases with large spatial heterogeneity. Considering the instantaneously matched footprints, we find that the angular distribution models account may account for up to 7.3 Wm-2 of the persistent CERES-aircraft shortwave flux difference due to systematic differences in the anisotropy for sea ice partly cloudy scenes. Additional analysis using a special programmable scan model with the CERES FM2 instrument suggests a significant view zenith angle dependence of the CERES fluxes for sea ice partly cloudy scenes where shortwave fluxes systematically decrease with increasing view zenith angle; no dependence is found for other scene types. We conclude that (1) spatial heterogeneity and scene temporal evolution substantially limit our ability to use aircraft measurements to place strong constraints on CERES TOA fluxes and (2) that the representation of anisotropy in sea ice partly cloudy scenes is likely a significant factor contributing to the persistent negative CERES-aircraft shortwave flux difference in this comparison and require additional data to analysis fully quantify the potential bias.

Patrick C. Taylor↗
NASA NTRS1988

Machine intelligence and autonomy for aerospace systems

The present volume discusses progress toward intelligent robot systems in aerospace applications, NASA Space Program automation and robotics efforts, the supervisory control of telerobotics in space, machine intelligence and crew/vehicle interfaces, expert-system terms and building tools, and knowledge-acquisition for autonomous systems. Also discussed are methods for validation of knowledge-based systems, a design methodology for knowledge-based management systems, knowledge-based simulation for aerospace systems, knowledge-based diagnosis, planning and scheduling methods in AI, the treatment of uncertainty in AI, vision-sensing techniques in aerospace applications, image-understanding techniques, tactile sensing for robots, distributed sensor integration, and the control of articulated and deformable space structures.

Heer, Ewald↗
NASA NTRS1989

Aerobrake heating rate sensitivity study for the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE)

The sensitivities associated with the prediction of the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE) vehicle's aerothermodynamic environment are presently evaluated in order to assess the heating-rate uncertainties of the AFE's aerobrake component, as a function of time in various trajectories, and as a function of distance around the aerobrake. Relative importance is evaluated by means of the Boundary Layer Integral Matrix Procedure for such areas of uncertainty as the trajectory parameters, the catalycity of the thermal-protection tiles, the nose radius variation/surface pressure distribution, and viscous interaction effects.

Rochelle, W. C.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Stellar population of NGC 1850 in the LMC

Results are presented of a study of the stellar population of the young globular cluster NGC 1850 in the LMC based on observations made on the HST. The observed magnitude range corresponds to main-sequence stars with masses in the interval 0.8-13 solar masses. The main sequence has a finite width, definitely larger than the spread produced by the measurement uncertainties, suggesting either a spread in ages (20 percent) or the effect of binary systems with a flat distribution of mass ratios.

Gilmozzi, Roberto↗
NASA NTRS2001

A New "Cloud Mode" for the AERONET

A key to predicting climate change is to observe an understand the global distribution of clouds and their physical properties such as optical thickness and droplet size. Since clouds change rapidly over short time and space intervals, they are difficult to simulate in computer models. But it is essential that global climate models predict realistic spatial and temporal distribution of cloud optical depth. The best way to verify these distributions is to infer optical depth from global coverage satellite data. However, satellite methods have many sources of uncertainty; thus, independent and reliable ground-based estimates are essential for validation. For aerosol, there is the AERONET - a ground based monitoring network that consists of identical multi-channel radiometers for assessing aerosol optical properties and validating their satellite retrievals. In addition to AEROSOL, we want the network monitoring CLOUD optical properties. It will use AERONET "time" (inappropriate for aerosol studies) to make basic new measurements related to cloud physics. In the presentation we will report on a new technique that retrieves cloud optical thickness for even broken clouds above green vegetation from surface measurements of zenith radiance in the visible (VIS) and near-IR (NIR) spectral regions. The idea of the method is simple: since green vegetation reflects 40-50% of incoming radiation in the NIR and only 5-10% in the VIS region, ground measurements under thin clouds have little spectral contrast between VIS and NIR, while thick clouds reflect much more of the surface-reflected radiation in the NIR than in VIS. Based on this idea, we use a combination of measurements (spectral indices) in VIS and NIR to estimate cloud optical thickness. By analogy with NDVI, the simplest index that can be defined is the Normalized Difference Cloud Index (NDCI) which is a ratio between the difference and the sum of two radiances measured for two narrow spectral bands in VIS and NIR.

Marshak, Alexander↗
NASA NTRS2011

Multiple Damage Progression Paths in Model-Based Prognostics

Model-based prognostics approaches employ domain knowledge about a system, its components, and how they fail through the use of physics-based models. Component wear is driven by several different degradation phenomena, each resulting in their own damage progression path, overlapping to contribute to the overall degradation of the component. We develop a model-based prognostics methodology using particle filters, in which the problem of characterizing multiple damage progression paths is cast as a joint state-parameter estimation problem. The estimate is represented as a probability distribution, allowing the prediction of end of life and remaining useful life within a probabilistic framework that supports uncertainty management. We also develop a novel variance control mechanism that maintains an uncertainty bound around the hidden parameters to limit the amount of estimation uncertainty and, consequently, reduce prediction uncertainty. We construct a detailed physics-based model of a centrifugal pump, to which we apply our model-based prognostics algorithms. We illustrate the operation of the prognostic solution with a number of simulation-based experiments and demonstrate the performance of the chosen approach when multiple damage mechanisms are active

Daigle, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Cosmic-Ray and Gas Content of the Cygnus Region as Measured in Gamma Rays by the Fermi Large Area Telescope

Context. The Cygnus region hosts a giant molecular-cloud complex which actively forms massive stars. Interactions of cosmic rays with interstellar gas and radiation fields make it shine at y-ray energies. Several gamma-ray pulsars and other energetic sources are seen in this direction. Aims. In this paper we analyse the gamma-ray emission measured by the Fermi Large Area Telescope in the energy range from 100 Me V to 100 Ge V in order to probe the gas and cosmic-ray content over the scale of the whole Cygnus complex. The gamma-ray emission on the scale of the central massive stellar clusters and from individual sources is addressed elsewhere. Methods. The signal from bright pulsars is largely reduced by selecting photons in their off-pulse phase intervals. We compare the diffuse gamma-ray emission with interstellar gas maps derived from radio/mm-wave lines and visual extinction data. and a global model of the region, including other pulsars and gamma-ray sources, is sought. Results. The integral H I emissivity above 100 MeV averaged over the whole Cygnus complex amounts to 12.06 +/- 0.11 (stat.) (+0.15 -0.84) (syst.J] x 10(exp -26) photons /s / sr / H-atom, where the systematic error is dominated by the uncertainty on the H I opacity to calculate its column densities. The integral emissivity and its spectral energy distribution are both consistent within the systematics with LAT measurements in the interstellar space near the solar system. The average X(sub co) N(H2)/W(sub co) ratio is found to be [1.68 +/- 0.05 (stat.) (H I opacity)] x 1020 molecules cm-2 (K km/s /r, consistent with other LAT measurements in the Local Arm. We detect significant gamma-ray emission from dark neutral gas for a mass corresponding to approx 40% of that traced by CO. The total interstellar mass in the Cygnus complex inferred from its gamma-ray emission amounts to 8(+5 -1) x 10(exp 6) Solar M at a distance of 1.4 kpc. Conclusions. Despite the conspicuous star formation activity and large masses of the interstellar clouds, the cosmic-ray population in the Cygnus complex averaged over a few hundred parsecs is similar to that of the local interstellar space.

Ackermann, M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Compositional and Microstructural Evolution of Olivine Under Multiple-Cycle Pulsed Laser Irradiation as Revealed by FIB/Field-Emission TEM

The use of pulsed laser irradiation to simulate the short duration, high-energy conditions characteristic of micrometeorite impacts is now an established approach in experimental space weathering studies. The laser generates both melt and vapor deposits that contain nanophase metallic Fe (npFe(sup 0)) grains with size distributions and optical properties similar to those in natural impact-generated melt and vapor deposits. There remains uncertainty, however, about how well lasers simulate the mechanical work and internal (thermal) energy partitioning that occurs in actual impacts. We are currently engaged in making a direct comparison between the products of laser irradiation and experimental/natural hypervelocity impacts. An initial step reported here is to use analytical SEM and TEM is to attain a better understanding of how the microstructure and composition of laser deposits evolve over multiple cycles of pulsed laser irradiation.

Christoffersen, R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-35172-DND

The wide field of view instrument on Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) took measurements from November 1984 through September 1999. It provides top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflected shortwave and emitted longwave irradiance at a 10 degree by 10 degree spatial resolution. We have recently re-processed ERBS wide field of view data with algorithms similar to those used in the CERES process (Shrestha et al. 2019). We also calibrated ERBS shortwave and longwave irradiance with CERES-derived irradiances. Combining ERBS and CERES data, we analyze the time series of global mean net TOA irradiance from 1985. The change of TOA net radiation over 30 years derived from ERBS and CERES data is larger than the change derived by Allan et al. (2014). The difference in the net irradiance change from two data sets is, however, within the uncertainty of ocean heating rates derived from ocean temperature measurements in 80?s. We also investigate the spatial distribution of changes in reflected shortwave irradiances derived from ERBS and CERES periods. The spatial distribution of reflected shortwave irradiance changes over the tropics and sub-tropical regions derived from our data set is qualitatively consistent with the result of Norris et al. (2016).

Antonio Viudez-Mora↗
NASA NTRS2012

Probabilistic Simulation of Multi-Scale Composite Behavior

A methodology is developed to computationally assess the non-deterministic composite response at all composite scales (from micro to structural) due to the uncertainties in the constituent (fiber and matrix) properties, in the fabrication process and in structural variables (primitive variables). The methodology is computationally efficient for simulating the probability distributions of composite behavior, such as material properties, laminate and structural responses. Bi-products of the methodology are probabilistic sensitivities of the composite primitive variables. The methodology has been implemented into the computer codes PICAN (Probabilistic Integrated Composite ANalyzer) and IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures). The accuracy and efficiency of this methodology are demonstrated by simulating the uncertainties in composite typical laminates and comparing the results with the Monte Carlo simulation method. Available experimental data of composite laminate behavior at all scales fall within the scatters predicted by PICAN. Multi-scaling is extended to simulate probabilistic thermo-mechanical fatigue and to simulate the probabilistic design of a composite redome in order to illustrate its versatility. Results show that probabilistic fatigue can be simulated for different temperature amplitudes and for different cyclic stress magnitudes. Results also show that laminate configurations can be selected to increase the redome reliability by several orders of magnitude without increasing the laminate thickness--a unique feature of structural composites. The old reference denotes that nothing fundamental has been done since that time.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Utilizing the Vertical Variability of Precipitation to Improve Radar QPE

Characteristics of the melting layer and raindrop size distribution can be exploited to further improve radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). Using dual-polarimetric radar and disdrometers, we found that the characteristic size of raindrops reaching the ground in stratiform precipitation often varies linearly with the depth of the melting layer. As a result, a radar rainfall estimator was formulated using D(sub m) that can be employed by polarimetric as well as dual-frequency radars (e.g., space-based radars such as the GPM DPR), to lower the bias and uncertainty of conventional single radar parameter rainfall estimates by as much as 20%. Polarimetric radar also suffers from issues associated with sampling the vertical distribution of precipitation. Hence, we characterized the vertical profile of polarimetric parameters (VP3)-a radar manifestation of the evolving size and shape of hydrometeors as they fall to the ground-on dual-polarimetric rainfall estimation. The VP3 revealed that the profile of ZDR in stratiform rainfall can bias dual-polarimetric rainfall estimators by as much as 50%, even after correction for the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR). The VP3 correction technique that we developed can improve operational dual-polarimetric rainfall estimates by 13% beyond that offered by a VPR correction alone.

Precipitation↗
NASA NTRS1973

Satellite ultraviolet measurements of nitric oxide fluorescence with a diffusive transport model.

Twilight measurements of fluorescence in the (1, 0) gamma band of nitric oxide were made from June 1967 to January 1969 by an ultraviolet scanning spectrometer on board the polar orbiting satellite Ogo 4. Nitric oxide vertical column emission rates were measured between solar zenith angles of 93 and 98 deg. Seasonal and latitudinal variations were found to be less than a factor of 1.3, the scatter and uncertainty in the data prohibiting more precise determinations from being made. Time independent chemical diffusion models for the vertical distribution of nitric oxide agree well with profiles measured from sounding rockets. The column emission rates calculated from the theoretical models are larger than the satellite measurements by a factor of 3.

Rusch, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Astrometric results of 1978-1985 Deep Space Network radio interferometry - The JPL 1987-1 extragalactic source catalog

An astrometric radio reference frame has been determined from intercontinental dual-frequency radio interferometric measurements. These measurements were carried out on a regular basis during 1978-1985 between NASA's Deep Space Network stations in California, Spain, and Australia. Analysis of 6800 pairs of delay and delay-rate observations made during 51 sessions produced estimates of 1300 parameters. The most significant of these are geophysical quantities and positions of extragalactic sources. The source catalog resulting from this analysis includes 106 sources fairly uniformly distributed over the celestial sphere, north of -45 deg declination. Almost all of the resulting source positions have formal uncertainties between 0.5 and 3 milliarcseconds (mas), with rms values of 2 mas in both angular coordinates. Internal consistency checks, as well as comparisons with independently determined source catalogs of comparable quality, indicate that relative source coordinates determined by VLBI contain systematic errors at the level of 1 to 2 mas.

Sovers, O. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

An information theory approach for evaluating earth radiation budget (ERB) measurements - Nonuniform sampling of diurnal longwave flux variations

Satellite measurements are subject to a wide range of uncertainties due to their temporal, spatial, and directional sampling characteristics. An information-theory approach is suggested to examine the nonuniform temporal sampling of ERB measurements. The information (i.e., its entropy or uncertainty) before and after the measurements is determined, and information gain (IG) is defined as a reduction in the uncertainties involved. A stochastic model for the diurnal outgoing flux variations that affect the ERB is developed. Using Gaussian distributions for the a priori and measured radiant exitance fields, the IG is obtained by computing the a posteriori covariance. The IG for the monthly outgoing flux measurements is examined for different orbital parameters and orbital tracks, using the Earth Observing System orbital parameters as specific examples. Variations in IG due to changes in the orbit's inclination angle and the initial ascending node local time are investigated.

Halyo, Nesim↗
NASA NTRS1994

Location and characteristics of the reconnection X-line deduced from low-altitude satellite and radar observations

We present an analysis of a cusp ion step observed between two poleward-moving events of enhanced ionospheric electron temperature. From the computed variation of the reconnection rate and the onset times of the associated ionospheric events, the distance between the satellite and the X-line can be estimated, but with a large uncertainty due to that in the determination of the low-energy cut-off of the ion velocity distribution function, f(E). Nevertheless, analysis of the time series f(t) shows the reconnection site to be on the dayside magnetopause, consistent with the pulsating cusp model, and the best estimate of the X-line location is 13 R(E) from the satellite. The ion precipitation is used to reconstruct the field-parallel part of the Cowley-D ion distribution function injected into the open low latitude boundary layer (LLBL) in the vicinity of the X-line. From this the Alfven speed, plasma density, magnetic field, parallel ion temperature, and flow velocity of the magnetosheath near the X-line can be derived.

Lockwood, M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Spectral eclipse mapping of the accretion disk in the nova-like variable UX Ursae Majoris

We analyze narrow-band eclipse light curves of the nova-like cataclysmic variable UX UMa, obtained from low-resolution spectra spanning lambda lambda 3600-9800 A . The light curves for narrow bands in the continuum as well as those for individual spectral lines are treated independently, and are used to construct images of the accretion disk's brightness distribution using the maximum-entropy eclipse-mapping technique. Particular attention is paid to the propagation of statistical uncertainties in the data and to how the analysis may introduce systematic errors in the final result. From the many narrrow band images we have reconstructed the spectra from isolated parts of the accretion disk. These spectra reveal that the inner disk radiates a continuum spectrum which peaks in the near UV and has the hydrogen Balmer lines in absorption (with the exception of H-alpha), whereas the outer disk is much fainter, has a much redder spectrum, and has Balmer emission lines. Our analysis reveals the presence of an uneclipsed component of the total light, whose spectrum is very red and has Balmer lines in emission. This unexpected feature of the eclipse mapping technique offers a new tool for an independent assessment of the secondary star's spectrum in eclipsing cataclysmic variables.

Rutten, R. G. M.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Computation of vertical profiles of longwave radiative cooling over the equatorial Pacific

An important quantity whose magnitude has not been throughly examined is the vertical distribution of heating in the Tropics. The details of the vertical distribution of heating have a significant impact on a number of phenomena, including the 30-60 day oscillation, sometimes known as the intraseasonal oscillation. Prior attempts to establish the structure of the heating relied on limited field data or assimilated data, coupled with climatological radiative heating parameters. The availability of high quality global-scale datasets has made it possible to make more accurate calculations than were possible a few years ago. An important component of the apparent heat budget is the longwave radiative cooling, which in this paper is found by using the ECMWF/WCRP/TOGA Archive 2 and ISCCP C1 datasets, together with a well-established parameterization scheme. A method is developed that can be used to estimate the vertical structure of cloud amounts based on top-of-atmosphere cloud observations, and the results are used with a wide-band longwave parameterization to produce longwave cooling rates over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Outgoing longwave radiation is calculated and compared the ERBE results. The calculated values are generally higher than those from ERBE, though the spatial distributions are similar. Some significant problems exist with the ECMWF upper-tropospheric water vapor amounts, which could imply uncertainties of 0.5 C/day in the calculated cooling rates. This is comparable to the differences associated with the minimum or random overlap assumptions used to generate cloud profiles.

Ramsey, Perry G.↗