Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “variable”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Evaluation of a Variable-Impedance Ceramic Matrix Composite Acoustic Liner

As a result of significant progress in the reduction of fan and jet noise, there is growing concern regarding core noise. One method for achieving core noise reduction is via the use of acoustic liners. However, these liners must be constructed with materials suitable for high temperature environments and should be designed for optimum absorption of the broadband core noise spectrum. This paper presents results of tests conducted in the NASA Langley Liner Technology Facility to evaluate a variable-impedance ceramic matrix composite acoustic liner that offers the potential to achieve each of these goals. One concern is the porosity of the ceramic matrix composite material, and whether this might affect the predictability of liners constructed with this material. Comparisons between two variable-depth liners, one constructed with ceramic matrix composite material and the other constructed via stereolithography, are used to demonstrate this material porosity is not a concern. Also, some interesting observations are noted regarding the orientation of variable-depth liners. Finally, two propagation codes are validated via comparisons of predicted and measured acoustic pressure profiles for a variable-depth liner.

Jones, M. G.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evaluation of Variable-Depth Liner Configurations for Increased Broadband Noise Reduction

This paper explores the effects of variable-depth geometry on the amount of noise reduction that can be achieved with acoustic liners. Results for two variable-depth liners tested in the NASA Langley Grazing Flow Impedance Tube demonstrate significant broadband noise reduction. An impedance prediction model is combined with two propagation codes to predict corresponding sound pressure level profiles over the length of the Grazing Flow Impedance Tube. The comparison of measured and predicted sound pressure level profiles is sufficiently favorable to support use of these tools for investigation of a number of proposed variable-depth liner configurations. Predicted sound pressure level profiles for these proposed configurations reveal a number of interesting features. Liner orientation clearly affects the sound pressure level profile over the length of the liner, but the effect on the total attenuation is less pronounced. The axial extent of attenuation at an individual frequency continues well beyond the location where the liner depth is optimally tuned to the quarter-wavelength of that frequency. The sound pressure level profile is significantly affected by the way in which variable-depth segments are distributed over the length of the liner. Given the broadband noise reduction capability for these liner configurations, further development of impedance prediction models and propagation codes specifically tuned for this application is warranted.

Jones, M. G.↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Assessment of Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100 Using NASA's MERRA and CMIP5 Simulations

Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile statistics to provide an assessment of potential building climate zone changes relative to the uncertainties demonstrated using MERRA. Findings and Conclusions: These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and a tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones in some limited regions. The CMIP analysis shows that models vary from relatively little building climate zone change for the least sensitive and conservation assumptions to a warming of at most 3 zones for certain areas, particularly the north central US by the end of the 21st century.

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Role of Updraft Velocity in Temporal Variability of Global Cloud Hydrometeor Number

Understanding how dynamical and aerosol inputs affect the temporal variability of hydrometeor formation in climate models will help to explain sources of model diversity in cloud forcing, to provide robust comparisons with data, and, ultimately, to reduce the uncertainty in estimates of the aerosol indirect effect. This variability attribution can be done at various spatial and temporal resolutions with metrics derived from online adjoint sensitivities of droplet and crystal number to relevant inputs. Such metrics are defined and calculated from simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model Version 5.1 (CAM5.1). Input updraft velocity fluctuations can explain as much as 48% of temporal variability in output ice crystal number and 61% in droplet number in GEOS-5 and up to 89% of temporal variability in output ice crystal number in CAM5.1. In both models, this vertical velocity attribution depends strongly on altitude. Despite its importance for hydrometeor formation, simulated vertical velocity distributions are rarely evaluated against observations due to the sparsity of relevant data. Coordinated effort by the atmospheric community to develop more consistent, observationally based updraft treatments will help to close this knowledge gap.

cloud condensation nuclei↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Soft State of Cygnus X-1 Observed with NuSTAR: A Variable Corona and a Stable Inner Disk

We present a multi-epoch hard X-ray analysis of Cygnus X-1 in its soft state based on four observations with the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR). Despite the basic similarity of the observed spectra, there is clear spectral variability between epochs. To investigate this variability, we construct a model incorporating both the standard disk-corona continuum and relativistic reflection from the accretion disk, based on prior work on Cygnus X-1, and apply this model to each epoch independently. We find excellent consistency for the black hole spin and the iron abundance of the accretion disk, which are expected to remain constant on observational timescales. In particular, we confirm that Cygnus X-1 hosts a rapidly rotating black hole, 0.93 < approx. a* < approx. 0.96, in broad agreement with the majority of prior studies of the relativistic disk reflection and constraints on the spin obtained through studies of the thermal accretion disk continuum. Our work also confirms the apparent misalignment between the inner disk and the orbital plane of the binary system reported previously, finding the magnitude of this warp to be approx.10deg-15deg. This level of misalignment does not significantly change (and may even improve) the agreement between our reflection results and the thermal continuum results regarding the black hole spin. The spectral variability observed by NuSTAR is dominated by the primary continuum, implying variability in the temperature of the scattering electron plasma. Finally, we consistently observe absorption from ionized iron at approx. 6.7 keV, which varies in strength as a function of orbital phase in a manner consistent with the absorbing material being an ionized phase of the focused stellar wind from the supergiant companion star.

black hole physics↗
NASA NTRS2017

Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability

The causes of regional climate trends cannot be understood without considering the impact of variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation and an assessment of the role of internally generated climate variability. There are contributions to regional climate trends from changes in large-scale latitudinal circulation, which is generally organized into three cells in each hemisphere-Hadley cell, Ferrell cell and Polar cell-and which determines the location of subtropical dry zones and midlatitude jet streams. These circulation cells are expected to shift poleward during warmer periods, which could result in poleward shifts in precipitation patterns, affecting natural ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. In addition, regional climate can be strongly affected by non-local responses to recurring patterns (or modes) of variability of the atmospheric circulation or the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. These modes of variability represent preferred spatial patterns and their temporal variation. They account for gross features in variance and for teleconnections which describe climate links between geographically separated regions. Modes of variability are often described as a product of a spatial climate pattern and an associated climate index time series that are identified based on statistical methods like Principal Component Analysis (PC analysis), which is also called Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (EOF analysis), and cluster analysis.

Perlwitz, J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

VLTI-GRAVITY Measurements of Cool Evolved Stars I. Variable Photosphere and Extended Atmosphere of the Mira Star R Peg

Context. Dynamic model atmospheres of Mira stars predict variabilities in the photospheric radius and in atmospheric molecular layers which are not yet strongly constrained by observations. Aim. Here we measure the variability of the oxygen-rich Mira star R Peg in near-continuum and molecular bands. Methods. We used near-infrared K-band spectro-interferometry with a spectral resolution of about 4000 obtained at four epochs between post-maximum and minimum visual phases employing the newly available GRAVITY beam combiner at the Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI). Results. Our observations show a continuum radius that is anti-correlated with the visual lightcurve. Uniform disc (UD) angular diameters at a near-continuum wavelength of 2.24 m are steadily increasing with values of 8.7 0.1 mas, 9.4 0.1 mas, 9.8 0.1 mas, and 9.9 0.1 mas at visual phases of 0.15, 0.36, 0.45, 0.53, respectively. UD diameters at a bandpass around 2.05 m, dominated by water vapour, follow the near-continuum variability at larger UD diameters between 10.7 mas and 11.7 mas. UD diameters at the CO 2-0 bandhead, instead, are correlated with the visual lightcurve and anti-correlated with the near-continuum UD diameters, with values between 12.3 mas and 11.7 mas. Conclusions. The observed anti-correlation between continuum radius and visual lightcurve is consistent with an earlier study of the oxygen-rich Mira S Lac, and with recent 1D CODEX dynamic model atmosphere predictions. The amplitude of the variation is comparable to the earlier observations of S Lac, and smaller than predicted by CODEX models. The wavelength-dependent visibility variations at our epochs can be reproduced by a set of CODEX models at model phases between 0.3 and 0.6. The anti-correlation of water vapour and CO contributions at our epochs suggests that these molecules undergo different processes in the extended atmosphere along the stellar cycle. The newly available GRAVITY instrument is suited to conducting longer time series observations, which are needed to provide strong constraints on the model-predicted intra- and inter-cycle variability.

photospheric radius↗
NASA NTRS2016

An Examination of LADEE UVS Spectral Variability Associated with the Geminid Meteor Shower

The Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) was an orbital lunar science mission designed to address the goals of the 2003 National Research Council decadal survey, the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group Roadmap, and the “Scientific Context for Exploration of the Moon” (SCEM) report, and has been recommended for execution by the 2011 Planetary Missions Decadal Survey. The LADEE mission goal was to determine the composition of the lunar atmosphere and investigate the processes that control its distribution and variability, including sources, sinks, and surface interactions. LADEE monitored variations in known gasses, such as sodium, potassium, argon and helium, and searched for other, as-yet-undetected gasses of both lunar and extralunar origin. LADEE also examined whether dust is present in the lunar exosphere, and revealed the processes that contribute to its sources and variability. LADEE launched September 6, 2013, entered lunar orbit on October 6, 2013 and operated until April 17, 2014. Examined here are spectral variability at around the time of the Geminid meteor shower (at around December 13-14, 2014). UVS made standard limb observations at the Sunrise and Sunset terminators, as well as observation looking anti-sun on the dark side of the moon (the so called “Sodium-Tail” observation type). The before, during and after spectra are compared to look for variability in line emissions.

Ultraviolet and Visible Spectrometer (UVS)↗
NASA NTRS2018

Multidecadal Changes in Lower Stratospheric Ozone: Variability Vs. Trends

As upper stratospheric ozone appears to be recovering as a result of decreasing chlorine loading following the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments and in agreement with model projections, several recent studies report an apparent decline of ozone concentrations in the lower stratosphere in the last two decades, particularly in the extratropics. Our previous work as well as at least two other studies provide evidence that this decline results from transport changes rather than an intensification of chemical depletion. It remains unclear whether these changes represent long-term internal variability or are a consequence of a climate forcing. Here we perform free-running ensembles of the recent past (1980-2016) using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) at the cubed sphere C180 (approximately half degree) resolution. Two suites of 10-member ensembles are performed, one in which observed sea surface temperature (SSTs) are fully prescribed, and the other in which the linear SST trend over the recent past is removed so as to only retain internal variability. We evaluate the trends in both ozone as well as two idealized tracers with prescribed uniform loss that are used to isolate the role of transport from chemistry and emissions. Probability-distribution-functions of the trends in both ozone and idealized tracers are compared among ensemble members and with observed trends in order to evaluate the likelihood of recent observed declines in lower stratospheric ozone, relative to large internal variability. Moreover, comparisons among simulations with and without imposed SST trends indicate the extent to which dynamically-driven ozone trends reflect forced trends or internal variability in lower stratospheric dynamics.

Wargan, Krzysztof↗
NASA NTRS2015

Towards Characterizing the Variability in the Loading Demands of an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

This paper presents a computational methodology to characterize and quantify the variability in the power demands during the take-off of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). A lithium-ion battery-based power system is used to power the unmanned aerial vehicle, and the capabilities of the unmanned aerial vehicle are driven by the amount of charge in this battery. In order to design the power system, it is necessary to analyze the power and charge requirements of the UAV. This paper focuses on the take-off segment, and aims to quantify the amount of charge that is required for this particular segment. Sparse data is available through different flight tests and this data is used to analyze the flight profile and the charge requirement during take-off. The amount of charge required for take-off depends on several factors that are not only variable but cannot be controlled in reality, and hence, the entire flight profile and the corresponding charge requirement are variable in nature. The information available through flight tests is converted into multi-dimensional sparse data and a new method is developed in this paper for variability characterization using multi-dimensional sparse data. This analysis is useful for prognostics and health management where it is necessary to anticipate future charge requirements in order to compute the end-of-discharge of the battery, and hence, the remaining useful life of the power system.

unmanned aerial vehicle↗
NASA NTRS2018

Variability of Disk Emission in Pre-Main-Sequence and Related Stars. IV. Investigating the Structural Changes in the Inner Disk Region of MWC 480

We present five epochs of near-IR observations of the protoplanetary disk around MWC 480 (HD 31648) obtained with the SpeX spectrograph on NASA’s Infrared Telescope Facility between 2007 and 2013, inclusive. Using the measured line fluxes in the Pa β and Br γ lines, we found the mass accretion rates to be (1.26–2.30) x 10(exp −7) Solar Mass/yr and (1.4–2.01) x 10(exp −7) Solar Mass/yr, respectively, but which varied by more than 50% from epoch to epoch. The spectral energy distribution reveals a variability of about 30% between 1.5 and 10 μm during this same period of time. We investigated the variability using of the continuum emission of the disk in using the Monte- Carlo Radiative Transfer Code HOCHUNK3D. We find that varying the height of the inner rim successfully produces a change in the NIR flux but lowers the far-IR emission to levels below all measured fluxes. Because the star exhibits bipolar flows, we utilized a structure that simulates an inner disk wind to model the variability in the near-IR, without producing flux levels in the far-IR that are inconsistent with existing data. For this object, variable near-IR emission due to such an outflow is more consistent with the data than changing the scale height of the inner rim of the disk.

Fernandes, Rachel B.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Random Variables with Moment-Matching Staircase Density Functions

This paper proposes a family of random variables for uncertainty modeling. The variables of interest have a bounded support set, and prescribed values for the first four moments. We present the feasibility conditions for the existence of any of such variables, and propose a class of variables that conforms to such constraints. This class is called staircase because the density of its members is a piecewise constant function. Convex optimization is used to calculate their distributions according to several optimality criteria, including maximal entropy and maximal log-likelihood. The flexibility and efficiency of staircases enable modeling phenomena having a possibly skewed and/or multimodal response at a low computational cost. Furthermore, we provide a means to account for the uncertainty in the distribution caused by estimating staircases from data. These ideas are illustrated by generating empirical staircase predictor models. We consider the case in which the predictor matches the sample moments exactly (a setting applicable to large datasets), as well as the case in which the predictor accounts for the sampling error in such moments (a setting applicable to sparse datasets). A predictor model for the dynamics of an aeroelastic airfoil subject to flutter instability is used as an example. The resulting predictor not only describes the system's response accurately, but also enables carrying out a risk analysis for safe flight.

Luis G. Crespo↗
NASA NTRS2019

How Do UTLS Jet and Tropopause Dynamics Influence Ozone Variability? Investigations Supporting the SPARC OCTAV-UTLS Activity

Understanding changes in UTLS ozone is exceptionally challenging because of large spatial and temporal variability and because of the difficulty of satellite measurements in the UTLS. It is also exceptionally important: for example, to understand climate impacts of radiatively active substances and to understand physical and biological effects of pollution transport and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). Multi-decadal global observations of UTLS ozone are now available from numerous satellite platforms, as well as local and regional observations from aircraft, balloons, and lidar. The upper tropospheric (UT) jets and tropopauses are important drivers of composition variability in the UTLS, acting as transport barriers and controlling STE and long-range transport. We report here on investigations of relationships between extratropical UTLS ozone variability and dynamical diagnostics of mixing / transport barriers, Rossby Wave breaking, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange. We will view these relationships in the context of ozone mapped into dynamical coordinates with respect to the UTLS jets and / or the tropopause. This work will help provide direction for analyses within the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Observed Composition Trends and Variability in the UTLS (OCTAV-UTLS) activity, which aims to use dynamical coordinate mapping to help detect and attribute observed UTLS composition trends, and to project future data needs to better quantify those trends. The work we report on here will focus on satellite ozone observations (primarily from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder, additionally from ACE-FTS and OSIRIS) and assimilated ozone and dynamical fields (from multiple reanalyses); we will also provide some examples of comparisons with aircraft and balloon observations.

Manney, Gloria L.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Length Scales of Hydrological Variability as Inferred from SMAP Soil Moisture Retrievals

Hydrological variability at a given location is characterized in part by a horizontal length scale – a measure of how far one can travel from that location and still see similar time variations of a hydrological variable of interest. Here, using Level-2 soil moisture retrievals produced by the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, we compute global distributions of these length scales for the Northern Hemisphere warm and cold seasons (May-September and November-March, respectively). The length scales show significant spatial and seasonal variability, with, as expected, much larger values (e-folding scales of greater than 500 km) often seen in the cold season, when convective rainfall is less prominent. The SMAP-derived length scales are found to be largely consistent with those derived directly, where possible, from precipitation measurements. This suggests a unique value of the retrievals: outside of well-instrumented areas, satellite-based soil moisture datasets have the potential to provide otherwise unattainable estimates of the horizontal length scales of hydrological variability.

Hydrology↗
NASA NTRS2020

Computationally Efficient Modeling and Data Assimilation of Near-Surface Variability

Near-surface (< 20m) ocean exhibits high variability due to coupled interactions, for e.g., with the atmosphere, sea ice, land, etc. Here we focus on atmospheric heat and momentum (wind) forcing, which are known to cause diurnal variability within the mixed layer. Only recently with a combination of sufficiently high vertical/horizontal resolution (75L, 1/4deg) and sub-daily atmospheric forcing fields, ocean models are starting to resolve this diurnal variability. However, the computation expense of such a high vertical resolution is burdensome in the context of coupled modeling and data assimilation. An alternative approach is to parameterize this diurnal variability with a prognostic model, that is embedded into the ocean model.In the first part of this presentation, we will demonstrate results with the above two approaches, by comparing them to profiles of near-surface temperature and salinity. In the context of data assimilation and reanalysis, this modeling capability opens the door to re-examine and perhaps improve specification of background (or, ensemble) error characteristics. The second half of this talk will focus on illustrating diurnally varying errors within an ensemble DA, and possible approaches to improve localization (horizontal/vertical) to extract maximum possible observational information content from in-situ and satellite observations of sea surface temperature.

Akella, Santha↗
NASA NTRS2018

Smeared Impedence Model for Variable Depth Liners

Noise from modern aircraft engines has a significant broadband component, which has motivated the need for broadband acoustic engine liners. A promising broadband design, called a variable depth liner, is composed of groups of resonators tuned for different frequencies. The accuracy of commonly used smeared impedance models, however, has not been thoroughly assessed for this type of liner. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to assess, and if necessary develop, semi-analytical impedance models for variable depth designs. The impedance prediction is complicated by the fact that the radiation loading on individual resonators within the array can be different. While the radiation loading can be neglected on conventional engine liners that consist of a dense array of uniform resonators, the same is not true for variable depth liners. To better understand and model this effect, nine liner samples are tested in the NASA Langley normal incidence tube. Comparisons of predicted and measured data for relatively simple non-uniform samples confirm that the radiation loading can be approximated using mass end correction terms. Semi-analytical impedance models that incorporate the proposed end corrections provide favorable comparisons with measured impedance spectra for variable depth liner samples.

Schiller, Noah H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Understanding the Uncertainty and Variability of Earth’s Radiation Budget Components Over the Past 3 Decades from the NASA’s GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Release 4 Integrated Product

The NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project produced a 30+ year time series of 3-hourly Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative flux components at a 1x1 degree resolution. This SRB Release 4 Integrated Productare derived using imager data products from the cross-calibrated from ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) “HSeries” radiance, cloud and surface property data products. The ISCCP HXS product replaces ISCCP DX with a ninefold increase in pixel count (10km instead of 30km). ISCCP also provides an atmospheric temperature and moisture dataset known as nnHIRS which we use and discuss radiative flux sensitivities to in this presentation. Total solar irradiance is now variable consistent with SORCE measurements. Sea surface (SeaFlux v2.0) and land surface products (LandFlux) are utilized to achieve an radiative flux estimatesintegrated with global data sets from these GEWEX projects. The variable aerosol composition are specified using a detailed aerosol history from the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology (MAC) also used for background aerosol in the ISCCP HX. Numerous other improvements were made to the SW and LW algorithms including improved cloud optical property treatments and specification of surface spectral albedo and emissivity for various surface conditions. Here we analyze the new SWand LWSRB datasets, comparing them to the previous Release 3, BSRN, GEBA and PMEL surface measurements, and ERBE and CERES satellite datasets. For surface flux validation besides ensemble comparisons, we show the variability of SRB vs surface measurements from BSRN beginning in 1992 and GEBA SW from 1983. We assess the variability of the surface flux anomalies, particularly the net fluxes and the cloud radiative effects, over the entire time period including the period containing CERES overlap. For the TOA fluxes, the anomalies of the fluxes in the early period are compared to the MEaSURES ERBE and the latter period to CERES EBAF/SYN1Deg datasets for a benchmark. Long-term changes in the surface radiation budget components and cloud radiative effects are shown and discussed relative to CERES and surface measurements. This includes a change point analysis that helps associate various changes in the ISCCP GEO/LEO configurations and other inputs to variations in the radiative budget components.

Earth Radiation Budget↗
NASA NTRS2021

A Phenomenon-Based Decomposition of Model-Based Estimates of Boreal Winter ENSO Variability

Climate models are now routinely being used to simulate and predict climate variability on time scales ranging from sub-seasonal to seasonal and longer. As such, there are now long histories of such simulations and predictions spanning multiple decades and multiple ensemble members, both of which are crucial for separating climate signal from climate noise. A key focus of such runs has been the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), spurred by recent improvements in our ability to predict such events, though questions remain as to how well climate models do beyond simply always predicting the “canonical” atmospheric response to an ENSO event—something simple statistical models already do reasonably well. This is a critical issue that needs addressing, given the importance of event-to-event differences for predicting regional impacts of ENSO teleconnections, and the need to justify the expense of running sophisticated climate models. Unfortunately, current diagnostic tools are not well suited for quantifying the different sources of variability associated with specific phenomena such as ENSO. More generally, while much effort has focused on addressing model bias, less has been done to address errors in second moment statistics—an issue whose importance is gaining increased attention particularly as we build climate prediction systems capable of taking advantage of forecasts of opportunity—a capability that requires reliable estimates of forecast uncertainty. In this report, we outline a phenomenon-based statistical decomposition of climate variance(in essence a detailed variance budget)that is specifically tailored to address the above questions by separating the variability (both the signal and noise) into that tied to the long-term average impact of a particular phenomenon(the composite mean) and the event-to-event(E2E) variability about the composite mean. In addition, we provide related decompositions of the correlations that allow us to quantify how much of the agreement with observations (the skill) comes from the composite mean as opposed to from the E2Evariability. As an example, we present the results of such a decomposition for ENSO based on simulations with the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), with a focus on the monthly mean impacts over North America during boreal winter(December –March). Here we take advantage of existing GEOS AGCM simulations that were produced as companion simulations to MERRA-2for the period 1980-2016. Comparisons are made throughout with MERRA-2.

ENSO↗