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A multiple objective optimization approach to quality control

The use of product quality as the performance criteria for manufacturing system control is explored. The goal in manufacturing, for economic reasons, is to optimize product quality. The problem is that since quality is a rather nebulous product characteristic, there is seldom an analytic function that can be used as a measure. Therefore standard control approaches, such as optimal control, cannot readily be applied. A second problem with optimizing product quality is that it is typically measured along many dimensions: there are many apsects of quality which must be optimized simultaneously. Very often these different aspects are incommensurate and competing. The concept of optimality must now include accepting tradeoffs among the different quality characteristics. These problems are addressed using multiple objective optimization. It is shown that the quality control problem can be defined as a multiple objective optimization problem. A controller structure is defined using this as the basis. Then, an algorithm is presented which can be used by an operator to interactively find the best operating point. Essentially, the algorithm uses process data to provide the operator with two pieces of information: (1) if it is possible to simultaneously improve all quality criteria, then determine what changes to the process input or controller parameters should be made to do this; and (2) if it is not possible to improve all criteria, and the current operating point is not a desirable one, select a criteria in which a tradeoff should be made, and make input changes to improve all other criteria. The process is not operating at an optimal point in any sense if no tradeoff has to be made to move to a new operating point. This algorithm ensures that operating points are optimal in some sense and provides the operator with information about tradeoffs when seeking the best operating point. The multiobjective algorithm was implemented in two different injection molding scenarios: tuning of process controllers to meet specified performance objectives and tuning of process inputs to meet specified quality objectives. Five case studies are presented.

Seaman, Christopher Michael↗

The Wide-Field Imaging Interferometry Testbed: Recent Results

We present recent results from the Wide-Field Imaging Interferometry Testbed (WIIT). The data acquired with the WIIT is "double Fourier" data, including both spatial and spectral information within each data cube. We have been working with this data, and starting to develop algorithms, implementations, and techniques for reducing this data. Such algorithms and tools are of great importance for a number of proposed future missions, including the Space Infrared Interferometric Telescope (SPIRIT), the Submillimeter Probe of the Evolution of Cosmic Structure (SPECS), and the Terrestrial Planet Finder Interferometer (TPF-I)/Darwin. Recent results are discussed and future study directions are described.

Rinehart, Stephen↗

Relating Convective and Stratiform Rain to Latent Heating

The relationship among surface rainfall, its intensity, and its associated stratiform amount is established by examining observed precipitation data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR). The results show that for moderate-high stratiform fractions, rain probabilities are strongly skewed toward light rain intensities. For convective-type rain, the peak probability of occurrence shifts to higher intensities but is still significantly skewed toward weaker rain rates. The main differences between the distributions for oceanic and continental rain are for heavily convective rain. The peak occurrence, as well as the tail of the distribution containing the extreme events, is shifted to higher intensities for continental rain. For rainy areas sampled at 0.58 horizontal resolution, the occurrence of conditional rain rates over 100 mm/day is significantly higher over land. Distributions of rain intensity versus stratiform fraction for simulated precipitation data obtained from cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations are quite similar to those from the satellite, providing a basis for mapping simulated cloud quantities to the satellite observations. An improved convective-stratiform heating (CSH) algorithm is developed based on two sources of information: gridded rainfall quantities (i.e., the conditional intensity and the stratiform fraction) observed from the TRMM PR and synthetic cloud process data (i.e., latent heating, eddy heat flux convergence, and radiative heating/cooling) obtained from CRM simulations of convective cloud systems. The new CSH algorithm-derived heating has a noticeably different heating structure over both ocean and land regions compared to the previous CSH algorithm. Major differences between the new and old algorithms include a significant increase in the amount of low- and midlevel heating, a downward emphasis in the level of maximum cloud heating by about 1 km, and a larger variance between land and ocean in the new CSH algorithm.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Next-Generation Aura/OMI NO2 and SO2 Products

The measurement of both SO2 and NO2 gases are recognized as an essential component of atmospheric composition missions. We describe current capabilities and limitations of the operational Aura/OMI NO2 and SO2 data that have been used by a large number of researchers. Analyses of the data and validation studies have brought to light a number of areas in which these products can be expanded and improved. Major improvements for new NASA standard (SP) NO2 product include more accurate tropospheric and stratospheric column amounts, along with much improved error estimates and diagnostics. Our approach uses a monthly NO2 climatology based on the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry-transport model and takes advantage of OMI data from cloudy scenes to find clean areas where the contribution from the trap NO2 column is relatively small. We then use a new filtering, interpolation and smoothing techniques for separating the stratospheric and tropospheric components of NO2, minimizing the influence of a priori information. The new algorithm greatly improves the structure of stratospheric features relative to the original SP. For the next-generation OMI SO2 product we plan to implement operationally the offline iterative spectral fitting (ISF) algorithm and re-process the OMI Level-2 SO2 dataset using a priori SO2 and aerosol profiles, clouds, and surface reflectivity appropriate for observation conditions. This will improve the ability to detect and quantify weak tropospheric SO2 loadings. The new algorithm is validated using aircraft in-situ data during field campaigns in China (2005 and 2008) and in Maryland (Frostburg, 2010 and DISCOVER-AQ in July 2011). The height of the SO2 plumes will also be estimated for high SO2 loading cases (e.g., volcanic eruptions). The same SO2 algorithm will be applied to the data from OMPS sensor to be launched on NPP satellite later this year. The next-generation NO2 and SO2 products will provide critical information (e.g., averaging kernels) for evaluation of chemistry-transport models, for data assimilation, and to impose top-down constraints on the SO2 and NO2 emission sources.

Krotkov, Nickolay↗

Analyzing the Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle using GPM, TROPICS, and other Spaceborne Observations

Tropical cyclones (TCs) exhibit a distinct diurnal cycle of high clouds and rainfall, marked by an expansion of the TC cirrus canopy during the day and enhanced rainfall overnight. Recent modeling work also has uncovered a diurnal cycle of low-level radial and tangential winds in simulated storms, marked by an expansion of the surface wind field overnight and into the morning, along with increasing maximum wind speed in the eyewall. These results suggest that diurnal changes in radiative heating tendencies not only affect upper-level cirrus clouds and precipitating convection, but also the low-level circulation. This presentation will characterize expansions of the TC rain field using the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission’s Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) half-hourly precipitation estimates. The Level 3 IMERG-Final rainfall data are azimuthally averaged about TC center positions in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins, accounting for asymmetries due to vertical wind shear and storm motion. Preliminary results indicate that the TC rain field expands overnight and through the morning, reaching its maximum extent during the afternoon. This evolution is considerably asymmetric, however, with expansion favored downshear of the storm center. The results are broadly consistent with previous work that characterized the TC diurnal cycle using other observations and simulations. A similar analysis is performed using microphysical retrievals from the GPM Goddard Profiling algorithm and lightning data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper to understand the relationship between the diurnal cycle, ice microphsyics, and lightning. Finally, with the ongoing Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission, we will discuss our plans to leverage TROPICS for enhanced observation of the TC diurnal cycle.

Patrick Duran↗

Reaction Wheel Disturbance Model Extraction Software - RWDMES

The RWDMES is a tool for modeling the disturbances imparted on spacecraft by spinning reaction wheels. Reaction wheels are usually the largest disturbance source on a precision pointing spacecraft, and can be the dominating source of pointing error. Accurate knowledge of the disturbance environment is critical to accurate prediction of the pointing performance. In the past, it has been difficult to extract an accurate wheel disturbance model since the forcing mechanisms are difficult to model physically, and the forcing amplitudes are filtered by the dynamics of the reaction wheel. RWDMES captures the wheel-induced disturbances using a hybrid physical/empirical model that is extracted directly from measured forcing data. The empirical models capture the tonal forces that occur at harmonics of the spin rate, and the broadband forces that arise from random effects. The empirical forcing functions are filtered by a physical model of the wheel structure that includes spin-rate-dependent moments (gyroscopic terms). The resulting hybrid model creates a highly accurate prediction of wheel-induced forces. It accounts for variation in disturbance frequency, as well as the shifts in structural amplification by the whirl modes, as the spin rate changes. This software provides a point-and-click environment for producing accurate models with minimal user effort. Where conventional approaches may take weeks to produce a model of variable quality, RWDMES can create a demonstrably high accuracy model in two hours. The software consists of a graphical user interface (GUI) that enables the user to specify all analysis parameters, to evaluate analysis results and to iteratively refine the model. Underlying algorithms automatically extract disturbance harmonics, initialize and tune harmonic models, and initialize and tune broadband noise models. The component steps are described in the RWDMES user s guide and include: converting time domain data to waterfall PSDs (power spectral densities); converting PSDs to order analysis data; extracting harmonics; initializing and simultaneously tuning a harmonic model and a wheel structural model; initializing and tuning a broadband model; and verifying the harmonic/broadband/structural model against the measurement data. Functional operation is through a MATLAB GUI that loads test data, performs the various analyses, plots evaluation data for assessment and refinement of analysis parameters, and exports the data to documentation or downstream analysis code. The harmonic models are defined as specified functions of frequency, typically speed-squared. The reaction wheel structural model is realized as mass, damping, and stiffness matrices (typically from a finite element analysis package) with the addition of a gyroscopic forcing matrix. The broadband noise model is realized as a set of speed-dependent filters. The tuning of the combined model is performed using nonlinear least squares techniques. RWDMES is implemented as a MATLAB toolbox comprising the Fit Manager for performing the model extraction, Data Manager for managing input data and output models, the Gyro Manager for modifying wheel structural models, and the Harmonic Editor for evaluating and tuning harmonic models. This software was validated using data from Goodrich E wheels, and from GSFC Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) wheels. The validation testing proved that RWDMES has the capability to extract accurate disturbance models from flight reaction wheels with minimal user effort.

Blaurock, Carl↗

Classifying Forest Type in the National Forest Inventory Context with Airborne Hyperspectral and Lidar Data

Forest structure and composition regulate a range of ecosystem services, including biodiversity, water and nutrient cycling, and wood volume for resource extraction. Forest type is an important metric measured in the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program, the national forest inventory of the USA. Forest type information can be used to quantify carbon and other forest resources within specific domains to support ecological analysis and forest management decisions, such as managing for disease and pests. In this study, we developed a methodology that uses a combination of airborne hyperspectral and lidar data to map FIA-defined forest type between sparsely sampled FIA plot data collected in interior Alaska. To determine the best classification algorithm and remote sensing data for this task, five classification algorithms were tested with six different combinations of raw hyperspectral data, hyperspectral vegetation indices, and lidar-derived canopy and topography metrics. Models were trained using forest type information from 632 FIA subplots collected in interior Alaska. Of the thirty model and input combinations tested, the random forest classification algorithm with hyperspectral vegetation indices and lidar-derived topography and canopy height metrics had the highest accuracy (78% overall accuracy). This study supports random forest as a powerful classifier for natural resource data. It also demonstrates the benefits from combining both structural (lidar) and spectral (imagery) data for forest type classification.

random forest↗

NASA GPM GV Science Requirements

An important scientific objective of the NASA portion of the GPM Mission is to generate quantitatively-based error characterization information along with the rainrate retrievals emanating from the GPM constellation of satellites. These data must serve four main purposes: (1) they must be of sufficient quality, uniformity, and timeliness to govern the observation weighting schemes used in the data assimilation modules of numerical weather prediction models; (2) they must extend over that portion of the globe accessible by the GPM core satellite to which the NASA GV program is focused - (approx.65 degree inclination); (3) they must have sufficient specificity to enable detection of physically-formulated microphysical and meteorological weaknesses in the standard physical level 2 rainrate algorithms to be used in the GPM Precipitation Processing System (PPS), i.e., algorithms which will have evolved from the TRMM standard physical level 2 algorithms; and (4) they must support the use of physical error modeling as a primary validation tool and as the eventual replacement of the conventional GV approach of statistically intercomparing surface rainrates fiom ground and satellite measurements. This approach to ground validation research represents a paradigm shift vis-&-vis the program developed for the TRMM mission, which conducted ground validation largely as a statistical intercomparison process between raingauge-derived or radar-derived rainrates and the TRMM satellite rainrate retrievals -- long after the original satellite retrievals were archived. This approach has been able to quantify averaged rainrate differences between the satellite algorithms and the ground instruments, but has not been able to explain causes of algorithm failures or produce error information directly compatible with the cost functions of data assimilation schemes. These schemes require periodic and near-realtime bias uncertainty (i.e., global space-time distributed conditional accuracy of the retrieved rainrates) and local error covariance structure (i.e., global space-time distributed error correlation information for the local 4-dimensional space-time domain -- or in simpler terms, the matrix form of precision error). This can only be accomplished by establishing a network of high quality-heavily instrumented supersites selectively distributed at a few oceanic, continental, and coastal sites. Economics and pragmatics dictate that the network must be made up of a relatively small number of sites (6-8) created through international cooperation. This presentation will address some of the details of the methodology behind the error characterization approach, some proposed solutions for expanding site-developed error properties to regional scales, a data processing and communications concept that would enable rapid implementation of algorithm improvement by the algorithm developers, and the likely available options for developing the supersite network.

Smith, E.↗

MIMO system identification using frequency response data

A solution to the problem of obtaining a multi-input, multi-output statespace model of a system from its individual input/output frequency responses is presented. The Residue Identification Algorithm (RID) identifies the system poles from a transfer function model of the determinant of the frequency response data matrix. Next, the residue matrices of the modes are computed guaranteeing that each input/output frequency response is fitted in the least squares sense. Finally, a realization of the system is computed. Results of the application of RID to experimental frequency responses of a large space structure ground test facility are presented and compared to those obtained via the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm.

Medina, Enrique A.↗

Experimental Verification of Identification Algorithms for Control of Flexible Structures

An on going simple laboratory experiment, referred to as the Beam Control Experiment (BCE) is described which has the essential features of a large flexible structure. The experiment is used to develop and evaluate identification and control algorithms which lock promising in the active control of high performance large space structures. Some results on the maximum likelihood identification of the parameters of the beam actuator sensor assembly from experimental data is presented.

Sridher, B.↗

MAMS: High resolution atmospheric/surface properties

The Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS) has been used for a number of investigations over the last 8 years. It has served as the basis for retrieval technique development, for atmospheric process studies, and to retrieve geophysical parameters at the surface (land and ocean). It was used most recently to collect high resolution visible and infrared imagery for the CaPE and STORMFEST experiments during FY91 and FY92. The Wildfire spectrometer (similar to MAMS but with different infrared channels) was also used during STORMFEST. The goals of MAMS during CaPE were: (1) to collect MAMS data to support the overall CaPE science objectives; (2) refine techniques for the retrieval of atmospheric moisture and surface geophysical parameters; (3) map the moisture distributions associated with the sea breeze front over Florida with MAMS ancillary satellite data on a case study basis; (4) identify surface features which may serve as local sources of heat and moisture and influence preferential convective regions over Florida, and (5) process MAMS data and derived relevant geophysical parameters to support other CaPE investigators. For STORMFEST both the MAMS and Wildfire spectrometers were used to collect unique multispectral data to study atmospheric processes. The Wildfire objectives were: (1) to collect high quality Wildfire data in conjunction with other in situ and remote measurements available during the STORMFEST field phase (1 February - 15 March 1992); (2) to develop algorithms to retrieve total ozone content and compare with those from TOMS and HIRS (IR); and (3) along with water vapor imagery, use the ozone data to better understand the 3-dimensional structure and dynamics of jet streaks and frontal systems in a case study investigation. The MAMS objectives were: (1) collect MAMS data to support a GSFC investigation of gravity waves; and (2) process the MAMS data to locate gravity wave features, and produce various moisture products in support of the gravity wave investigation. The research activities over the last year are presented and they focused on analyzing the CaPE data sets and collecting and starting preliminary analysis of the STORMFEST MAMS and Wildfire data.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

BOREAS AFM-12 1-km AVHRR Seasonal Land Cover Classification

The Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) Airborne Fluxes and Meteorology (AFM)-12 team's efforts focused on regional scale Surface Vegetation and Atmosphere (SVAT) modeling to improve parameterization of the heterogeneous BOREAS landscape for use in larger scale Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This regional land cover data set was developed as part of a multitemporal one-kilometer Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) land cover analysis approach that was used as the basis for regional land cover mapping, fire disturbance-regeneration, and multiresolution land cover scaling studies in the boreal forest ecosystem of central Canada. This land cover classification was derived by using regional field observations from ground and low-level aircraft transits to analyze spectral-temporal clusters that were derived from an unsupervised cluster analysis of monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) image composites (April-September 1992). This regional data set was developed for use by BOREAS investigators, especially those involved in simulation modeling, remote sensing algorithm development, and aircraft flux studies. Based on regional field data verification, this multitemporal one-kilometer AVHRR land cover mapping approach was effective in characterizing the biome-level land cover structure, embedded spatially heterogeneous landscape patterns, and other types of key land cover information of interest to BOREAS modelers.The land cover mosaics in this classification include: (1) wet conifer mosaic (low, medium, and high tree stand density), (2) mixed coniferous-deciduous forest (80% coniferous, codominant, and 80% deciduous), (3) recent visible bum, vegetation regeneration, or rock outcrops-bare ground-sparsely vegetated slow regeneration bum (four classes), (4) open water and grassland marshes, and (5) general agricultural land use/ grasslands (three classes). This land cover mapping approach did not detect small subpixel-scale landscape features such as fens, bogs, and small water bodies. Field observations and comparisons with Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) suggest a minimum effective resolution of these land cover classes in the range of three to four kilometers, in part, because of the daily to monthly compositing process. In general, potential accuracy limitations are mitigated by the use of conservative parameterization rules such as aggregation of predominant land cover classes within minimum horizontal grid cell sizes of ten kilometers. The AFM-12 one-kilometer AVHRR seasonal land cover classification data are available from the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884).

Steyaert, Lou↗

Shape Servoing of Deformable Objects Using Model Estimation and Barrier Lyapunov Function

An adaptive shape servoing control method is presented in this article to manipulate a deformable object into a desired shape in 3-D. A finite-point-based representation of the deformable object is used and the deformation Jacobian matrix is approximated using Fourier series basis functions. The unknown parameters of the deformation Jacobian are learned by using the velocity applied to a control point on the object and corresponding change of positions of the points describing the entire object. An integral concurrent learning (ICL)-based parameter update law is designed along with a constrained controller to satisfy the state constraints on the motion of the control point using Barrier Lyapunov function analysis. ICL-based parameter update law uses data history of velocity and corresponding positions of the points along with their current values. An efficient algorithm to update the history stack using singular value maximization is proposed based on the structure of the regressor matrix. Simulations using a physical simulator and experiments using a robot platform are performed to validate the performance of the proposed controller on two different deformable objects.

Vrithik Raj Guthikonda↗

Spatial Modulation Improves Performance in CTIS

Suitably formulated spatial modulation of a scene imaged by a computed-tomography imaging spectrometer (CTIS) has been found to be useful as a means of improving the imaging performance of the CTIS. As used here, "spatial modulation" signifies the imposition of additional, artificial structure on a scene from within the CTIS optics. The basic principles of a CTIS were described in "Improvements in Computed- Tomography Imaging Spectrometry" (NPO-20561) NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 24, No. 12 (December 2000), page 38 and "All-Reflective Computed-Tomography Imaging Spectrometers" (NPO-20836), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 11 (November 2002), page 7a. To recapitulate: A CTIS offers capabilities for imaging a scene with spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution. The spectral disperser in a CTIS is a two-dimensional diffraction grating. It is positioned between two relay lenses (or on one of two relay mirrors) in a video imaging system. If the disperser were removed, the system would produce ordinary images of the scene in its field of view. In the presence of the grating, the image on the focal plane of the system contains both spectral and spatial information because the multiple diffraction orders of the grating give rise to multiple, spectrally dispersed images of the scene. By use of algorithms adapted from computed tomography, the image on the focal plane can be processed into an image cube a three-dimensional collection of data on the image intensity as a function of the two spatial dimensions (x and y) in the scene and of wavelength (lambda). Thus, both spectrally and spatially resolved information on the scene at a given instant of time can be obtained, without scanning, from a single snapshot; this is what makes the CTIS such a potentially powerful tool for spatially, spectrally, and temporally resolved imaging. A CTIS performs poorly in imaging some types of scenes in particular, scenes that contain little spatial or spectral variation. The computed spectra of such scenes tend to approximate correct values to within acceptably small errors near the edges of the field of view but to be poor approximations away from the edges. The additional structure imposed on a scene according to the present method enables the CTIS algorithms to reconstruct acceptable approximations of the spectral data throughout the scene.

Bearman, Gregory H.↗

Validation of MODIS FLH and In Situ Chlorophyll a from Tampa Bay, Florida (USA)

Satellite observation of phytoplankton concentration or chlorophyll-a (chla) is an important characteristic, critically integral to monitoring coastal water quality. However, the optical properties of estuarine and coastal waters are highly variable and complex and pose a great challenge for accurate analysis. Constituents such as suspended solids and dissolved organic matter and the overlapping and uncorrelated absorptions in the blue region of the spectrum renders the blue-green ratio algorithms for estimating chl-a inaccurate. Measurement of suninduced chlorophyll fluorescence, on the other hand, which utilizes the near infrared portion of the electromagnetic spectrum may, provide a better estimate of phytoplankton concentrations. While modelling and laboratory studies have illustrated both the utility and limitations of satellite algorithms based on the sun induced chlorophyll fluorescence signal, few have examined the empirical validity of these algorithms or compared their accuracy against bluegreen ratio algorithms . In an unprecedented analysis using a long term (2003-2011) in situ monitoring data set from Tampa Bay, Florida (USA), we assess the validity of the FLH product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer against a suite of water quality parameters taken in a variety of conditions throughout this large optically complex estuarine system. . Overall, the results show a 106% increase in the validity of chla concentration estimation using FLH over the standard chla estimate from the blue-green OC3M algorithm. Additionally, a systematic analysis of sampling sites throughout the bay is undertaken to understand how the FLH product responds to varying conditions in the estuary and correlations are conducted to see how the relationships between satellite FLH and in situ chlorophyll-a change with depth, distance from shore, from structures like bridges, and nutrient concentrations and turbidity. Such analysis illustrates that the correlations between FLH and in situ chla measurements increases with increasing distance between monitoring sites and structures like bridges and shore. Due probably to confounding factors, expected improvement in the FLH- chla relationship was not clearly noted when increasing depth and distance from shore alone (not including bridges). Correlations between turbidity and nutrient concentrations are discussed further and principle component analyses are employed to address the relationships between the multivariate data sets. A thorough understanding of how satellite FLH algorithms relate to in situ water quality parameters will enhance our understanding of how MODIS s global FLH algorithm can be used empirically to monitor coastal waters worldwide.

Fischer, Andrew↗

A generalized multiple-input, multiple-output modal parameter estimation algorithm

A new method for experimental determination of the modal parameters of a structure is presented. The method allows for multiple input forces to be applied simultaneously, and for an arbitrary number of acceleration response measurements to be employed. These data are used to form the equations of motion for a damped linear elastic structure. The modal parameters are then obtained through an eigenvalue technique. In conjunction with the development of the equations, an extensive computer simulation study was performed. The results of the study show a marked improvement in the mode shape identification for closely-spaced modes as the number of applied forces is increased. Also demonstrated is the influence of noise on the method's ability to identify accurate modal parameters. Here again, an increase in the number of exciters leads to a significant improvement in the identified parameters.

Craig, R. R., Jr.↗

HIV drug resistance during antiretroviral therapy scale-up in Uganda, 2012–19: a population-based, longitudinal study

Background With scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, increasing pretreatment HIV drug resistance has been reported; however, the broader effect of ART expansion on population-level resistance patterns remains insufficiently quantified. We aimed to estimate the longitudinal prevalence of drug resistance and resistance-conferring mutations. Methods This study used data collected as part of the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS), an open population-based census and cohort study conducted in southern Uganda. At each survey round, residents aged 15–49 years are invited to participate and receive a structured questionnaire that obtains sociodemographic, behavioural, and health information, including self-reported past and current ART use. Voluntary HIV testing is conducted using a rapid test algorithm and a venous blood sample. People with HIV provide samples for viral load quantification and deep sequencing. We analysed RCCS survey, HIV viral load, and deep sequencing (which was used to predict resistance) data from five survey rounds. The key outcomes were the population prevalence of viraemic people with HIV with non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI), protease inhibitor, or multiclass resistance among all participants (regardless of HIV serostatus) in the 2015 and 2017 surveys. Prevalence of class-specific resistance and resistance-conferring substitutions were estimated using robust log-Poisson regression. Findings Between Aug 10, 2011, and Nov 4, 2020, there were 43 361 participants in the RCCS and 7923 (18·27%) people with HIV. Over five survey rounds, 93 622 participant visits occurred, among which 17 460 (18·65%) were from people with HIV. Over the analysis period, the median age of study participants remained similar (28 years [22–35] in 2012 and 29 years [21–38] in 2019). Sufficient data were available to reliably genotype 4072 (90·03%) of 4523 participant visits from 3407 people with HIV for at least one drug. Overall population prevalence of resistance contributed by viraemic pretreatment people with HIV decreased between 2012 and 2017 from 0·56% (95% CI 0·42–0·75) to 0·25% (0·18–0·33) for NNRTI and from 0·24% (0·15–0·37) to 0·05% (0·02–0·10) for NRTI (prevalence ratio 0·44 [0·29–0·68] for NNRTI and 0·21 [0·09–0·47] for NRTI). Between 2012 and 2017, NNRTI resistance among viraemic pretreatment people with HIV increased from 4·86% (3·69–6·42) to 9·61% (7·27–12·7; prevalence ratio 1·98 [1·34–2·91]). The prevalence of NNRTI and NRTI resistance was substantially higher among viraemic treatment-experienced people with HIV (51·49% [46·24–57·34] for NNRTI and 36·46% [30·06–44·22] for NRTI in 2017) than among pretreatment people with HIV. NNRTI and NRTI resistance was predominantly attributable to rtK103N and rtM184V. inT97A was observed at a similar prevalence among viraemic treatment-experienced (9·96% [6·41–15·48]) and viraemic pretreatment (10·56% [8·01–13·93]) people with HIV; no major dolutegravir resistance mutations were observed. Interpretation Despite rising NNRTI resistance among pretreatment people with HIV, overall population prevalence of pretreatment HIV drug-resistant viraemia decreased due to increasing ART uptake and viral suppression. This finding underscores the crucial role of achieving and maintaining high ART coverage in reducing transmission of drug-resistant HIV. The high prevalence of mutations conferring resistance to components of first-line ART regimens among viraemic people with HIV is potentially concerning. Funding National Institutes of Health, Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Adaptation of a Fast Optimal Interpolation Algorithm to the Mapping of Oceangraphic Data

A fast, recently developed, multiscale optimal interpolation algorithm has been adapted to the mapping of hydrographic and other oceanographic data. This algorithm produces solution and error estimates which are consistent with those obtained from exact least squares methods, but at a small fraction of the computational cost. Problems whose solution would be completely impractical using exact least squares, that is, problems with tens or hundreds of thousands of measurements and estimation grid points, can easily be solved on a small workstation using the multiscale algorithm. In contrast to methods previously proposed for solving large least squares problems, our approach provides estimation error statistics while permitting long-range correlations, using all measurements, and permitting arbitrary measurement locations. The multiscale algorithm itself, published elsewhere, is not the focus of this paper. However, the algorithm requires statistical models having a very particular multiscale structure; it is the development of a class of multiscale statistical models, appropriate for oceanographic mapping problems, with which we concern ourselves in this paper. The approach is illustrated by mapping temperature in the northeastern Pacific. The number of hydrographic stations is kept deliberately small to show that multiscale and exact least squares results are comparable. A portion of the data were not used in the analysis; these data serve to test the multiscale estimates. A major advantage of the present approach is the ability to repeat the estimation procedure a large number of times for sensitivity studies, parameter estimation, and model testing. We have made available by anonymous Ftp a set of MATLAB-callable routines which implement the multiscale algorithm and the statistical models developed in this paper.

Menemenlis, Dimitris↗