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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29

Mitigation of spatial nonstationarity with vision transformers

Spatial nonstationarity, the location variance of features’ statistical distributions, is ubiquitous in many natural settings. For example, in geological reservoirs rock matrix porosity varies vertically due to geomechanical compaction trends, in mineral deposits grades vary due to sedimentation and concentration processes, in hydrology rainfall varies due to the atmosphere and topography interactions, and in metallurgy crystalline structures vary due to differential cooling. Conventional geostatistical modeling workflows rely on the assumption of stationarity to be able to model spatial features for geostatistical inference. Nevertheless, this is often not a realistic assumption when dealing with nonstationary spatial data and this has motivated a variety of nonstationary spatial modeling workflows such as trend and residual decomposition, cosimulation with secondary features, and spatial segmentation and independent modeling over stationary subdomains. The advent of deep learning technologies has enabled new workflows for modeling spatial relationships. However, there is a paucity of demonstrated best practice and general guidance on mitigation of spatial nonstationarity with deep learning in the geospatial context. We demonstrate the impact of two common types of geostatistical spatial nonstationarity on deep learning model prediction performance and propose the mitigation of such impacts using self-attention (vision transformer) models. We demonstrate the utility of vision transformers for the mitigation of nonstationarity with relative errors as low as 10%, exceeding the performance of alternative deep learning methods such as convolutional neural networks. We establish best practice by demonstrating the ability of self-attention networks for modeling large-scale spatial relationships in the presence of commonly observed geospatial nonstationarity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Analytical models of hydrogen transport in graphite

The importance of graphite-hydrogen chemical reactions to fusion, fission, and hydrogen storage applications, combined with the rapidly evolving knowledge on the underlying mechanisms, has led to the development of multiple models to describe hydrogen transport in graphite. Significant differences exist among these models, resulting from discrepancies in the modeling assumptions, intended degree of fidelity, and conditions of applicability. This paper attempts at reconciling these apparent differences by providing a comprehensive description of the constitutive equations governing hydrogen transport in graphite at high-temperature, identifying outstanding gaps in knowledge, illustrating how these different models approach them, and proposing alternative analytical formulations grounded on experimental results from hydrogen-graphite studies. Governing equations, closing relations, and simplifying assumptions are discussed for hydrogen transport at the inter-granular and intra-granular level, accompanied by compiled experimental data and illustrated energy diagrams associated to the proposed transport mechanisms. Analytical formulations are provided to reproduce competing hypotheses on the mechanisms, supporting the development of a range of computational models that can enable resolution of outstanding knowledge gaps through comparative testing against experimental data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A new approach to study adsorption on shales and other microporous solids via the thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) technique

Measuring the adsorption of gases in microporous solids like the shales requires accurate knowledge of the solid’s skeletal volume. Helium (He) is commonly used to determine the sample’s skeletal volume based on the assumption that it does not adsorb in these porous media. The validity of such an assumption for microporous solids has been questioned in recent years, and in this study, we show that it is not applicable for the shale sample studied. We present a new method to measure the adsorption of shale-gas components in shales, which does not require the use of He to measure the solid’s skeletal volume. Since the proposed analysis method relies on the use of dynamic adsorption data, we also propose here a new zero-point correction method for the magnetic suspension balance, which is better suited for the analysis of such data. Here, we employ the new technique to the study of Argon adsorption in Marcellus Shales.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Sublimation and oxidation measurements of graphite and carbon black at high temperatures in a shock tube using absorption imaging and thermal emission

Surface mass loss rates due to sublimation and oxidation at temperatures of 3000–7000 K have been measured in a shock tube for graphite and carbon black (CB) particles. Diagnostics are presented for measuring surface mass loss rates by diffuse backlit illumination extinction imaging and thermal emission. Here, the surface mass loss rate is found by regression fitting extinction and emission signals with an independent spherical primary particle assumption. Measured graphite sublimation and oxidation rates are reported to be an order of magnitude greater than CB sublimation and oxidation rates. It is speculated that the difference between CB and graphite surface mass loss rates is largely due to the primary particle assumption of the presented technique which misrepresents the effective surface area of an aggregate particle where primary particles overlap and shield inner particles. Measured sublimation rates are compared to sublimation models in the literature, and it is seen graphite shows fair agreement with the models while CB underestimates, likely a result of the particle shielding affect not being considered in the sublimation model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Empirical evidence that mean soil contaminant concentration is not a conservative indicator of external exposure to wildlife

Adequate information on external exposure is often a limiting factor in ecological risk assessments because of a lack of exposure data for free-ranging animals as they interact with a heterogeneous distribution of contaminants. Instead, most wildlife exposure data are estimated from model simulations. However, empirical exposure data are rarely available to verify model results, or to test fundamental assumptions inherent in exposure assessments. We used novel, GPS-coupled radiation dosimeters on reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) to quantify their external exposure for five months in a Chernobyl fallout affected mountainous area of Norway. The exposure data were then used to test a fundamental assumption in screening-level risk assessments: Mean soil contaminant concentrations can be used to conservatively estimate chronic external exposures to representative animals. External exposure and GPS coordinates were obtained hourly and compared to model simulations of exposure based on airborne surveys of 137 Cs soil contamination. Our objectives were to determine 1) if modelled dose estimates based on mean 137 Cs soil concentrations were conservative, and 2) if modelled dose estimates could be improved by adjusting for spatial–temporal heterogeneity of contaminants using 137 Cs concentrations within reindeers’ GPS-defined home ranges and core areas. We found that external exposure modelled from mean soil contaminant concentrations underestimated exposure by 70% compared to empirical measurements from GPS-dosimeter collars worn on individual animals. Using area-weighted mean contaminant levels within the animals’ home range improved the model estimates, but still underestimated the field dosimeter data by 53%. The best estimate of external exposure was obtained when high-use areas within their home range, along with spatial heterogeneity of the contaminant, was accounted for by using area-weighted mean soil contaminant levels within GPS-derived core areas. Accounting for temporal use of core areas within animals’ home range provided a 24% improvement. Here, a comparison of our analyses to similar work performed on Chernobyl wolves found the two studies concur that risk assessors should be cautious in relying on the paradigm of using averaged soil contaminant levels to provide conservative estimates of external exposure to representative individuals. Results of modelled external exposure based on mean soil contaminant concentrations could misguide assessors and cause inappropriate management decisions.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 37 study on deep decarbonization and high electrification analyzed a set of scenarios that achieve economy-wide net-zero carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in North America by mid-century, exploring the implications of different technology evolutions, policies, and behavioral assumptions affecting energy supply and demand. Here, for this paper, 16 modeling teams reported resulting emissions projections, energy system evolution, and economic activity. This paper provides an overview of the study, documents the scenario design, provides a roadmap for complementary forthcoming papers from this study, and offers an initial summary and comparison of results for net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios in the United States. We compare various outcomes across models and scenarios, such as emissions, energy use, fuel mix evolution, and technology adoption. Despite disparate model structure and sources for input assumptions, there is broad agreement in energy system trends across models towards deep decarbonization of the electricity sector coupled with increased end-use electrification of buildings, transportation, and to a lesser extent industry. All models deploy negative emissions technologies (e.g., direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in addition to land sinks to achieve net-zero CO 2 emissions. Important differences emerged in the results, showing divergent pathways among end-use sectors with deep electrification and grid decarbonization as necessary but not sufficient conditions to achieve net zero. These differences will be explored in the papers complementing this study to inform efforts to reach net-zero emissions and future research needs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Incorporating two-dimensional conduction modeling techniques into an energy simulation program: The EnergyPlus radiant system example

Due to the inherent complexity of multi-dimensional solutions for transient conduction in a multilayered building element, most heat balance-based algorithms assume that conduction occurs only in one dimension—through the building element between the inside and outside environments. Usually, since the length and width of the elements are much greater than the thickness of the element, this is a valid assumption. However, there are some cases such as hydronic radiant slabs where this assumption may not lead to an accurate estimate of the energy consumption of the system. In a hydronic radiant slab, water tubes are embedded in a slab, and hot or chilled water is circulated to meet any heating or cooling loads. The energy consumption of such a system will depend highly on the temperature of the water being sent to the slab (i.e., produced by the boiler or chiller). The temperature of the water that must be sent to the slab will depend on the spacing of the tubes, the multilayer construction of the building element, and the boundary conditions to which the construction is exposed. Thus, to accurately predict the energy consumption of such a system, a transient two-dimensional heat conduction model must be integrated with a heat balance-based simulation. This paper demonstrates the potential loss of accuracy associated with the one-dimensional radiant system models by providing a comparison of one- and two-dimensional solutions using EnergyPlus.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A real-time multiphysics model of a pressurized solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) for cyber-physical simulation

Solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOEC) can play important roles in integrated energy systems (IES) as the hydrogen production hub and the resilience energy hub. When tied to a microgrid with high renewable penetration, the SOEC is subjected to rapid load transitions in response to the intermittent renewable generations that occur not only in diurnal cycles but also in short timeframes (e.g., sub-minute). The cyber-physical simulation approach can derisk operability research but requires a real-time dynamic SOEC model. In the present work, a real-time multiphysics model for pressurized SOEC is developed and validated in the pressure range from 1.4 to 8bar. Further, the accuracy of the single repeating unit (SRU) assumption in SOEC stack simulation is quantified. A guidance of more than 45 cells in one SOEC stack is recommended to safely apply the SRU assumption. Modeling results suggest that at a given current density, more power is consumed by SOEC at elevated operating pressures. The anode air and cathode stream have major impacts on thermal management, highlighting the potential benefit of integrating SOEC with other thermal processes in IES. To achieve high hydrogen production efficiency, the SOEC could operate at the maximum endothermic point to maximize the use of thermal energy. The real-time execution of the developed SOEC model is also demonstrated, which only takes 0.1% of the fixed time step of 5ms. The developed model establishes the basis for cyber-physical simulation of SOEC hybrid systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Insights for Canadian electricity generation planning from an integrated assessment model: Should we be more cautious about hydropower cost overruns?

Hydropower accounts for approximately 60% of electricity generation in Canada, with growth expected in the coming decades as part of renewable energy transitions; however, frequent cost overruns threaten the viability of this growth. Here, using the integrated assessment model GCAM, we develop an endogenous representation of hydropower for Canada that accounts for market dynamics, thus permitting analysis of hydropower competition with other electricity generation technologies, both with and without cost overruns. Results show that modelling hydropower resources endogenously increases Canadian hydropower deployment relative to an assumption of fixed hydropower production, from 417 to 495 TWh annually by 2050. In scenarios that apply cost overruns at historical levels, hydropower loses market share to more easily scalable technologies like wind power. When including high cost overrun assumptions, the model determines that hydropower falls from about 73% to 65% of Canadian electricity generation by 2050, while wind power increases from about 8% to 11%. Countries may be better able to achieve electrification and renewable energy targets at lower cost by avoiding large-scale, overrun-prone hydropower and nuclear generation projects. Model results support that cost overruns are important considerations for policy decisions related to electricity sector development in Canada and elsewhere.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impact of operating reserve rules on electricity prices with high penetrations of renewable energy

In competitive wholesale electricity markets, significant effort is devoted to designing markets that set efficient prices for maintaining supply-demand balance. One factor that can impact prices is administratively-set scarcity pricing, which sets prices to a preset level when the market is not able to meet operating reserve or energy requirements. When energy and operating reserves are co-optimized, assumptions surrounding operating reserve requirements and scarcity pricing can impact system-wide price outcomes for both operating reserves and energy. This study uses production cost modeling of an ERCOT-like system to evaluate the impact of operating reserve eligibility, scarcity pricing, and quantity rules on electricity prices, and therefore also on generator revenues. Results reveal economic and operational benefits with allowing open participation in reserve markets, as this enables greater access to the full set of capable resources at lowest cost. Furthermore, both energy and reserve prices are strongly impacted by reserve scarcity pricing events, which reveals that reserve scarcity pricing assumptions can impact price outcomes even for units not providing reserves. This study highlights the importance of operating reserve scarcity pricing rules because of the strong coupling between energy and reserve prices and because these rules serve as proxies for true price responsive demand.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A research agenda for the science of actionable knowledge: Drawing from a review of the most misguided to the most enlightened claims in the science-policy interface literature

Linking science with action affords a prime opportunity to leverage greater societal impact from research and increase the use of evidence in decision-making. Success in these areas depends critically upon processes of producing and mobilizing knowledge, as well as supporting and making decisions. For decades, scholars have idealized and described these social processes in different ways, resulting in numerous assumptions that now variously guide engagements at the interface of science and society. We systematically catalog these assumptions based on prior research on the science-policy interface, and further distill them into a set of 26 claims. We then elicit expert perspectives (n = 16) about these claims to assess the extent to which they are accurate or merit further examination. Out of this process, we construct a research agenda to motivate future scientific research on actionable knowledge, prioritizing areas that experts identified as critical gaps in understanding of the science-society interface. The resulting agenda focuses on how to define success, support intermediaries, build trust, and evaluate the importance of consensus and its alternatives – all in the diverse contexts of science-society-decision-making interactions. We further raise questions about the centrality of knowledge in these interactions, discussing how a governance lens might be generative of efforts to support more equitable processes and outcomes. We offer these suggestions with hopes of furthering the science of actionable knowledge as a transdisciplinary area of inquiry.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

From zonal to nodal capacity expansion planning: Spatial aggregation impacts on a realistic test-case

Solving power system capacity expansion planning (CEP) problems at realistic spatial resolutions is computationally challenging. Thus, a common practice is to solve CEP over zonal models with low spatial resolution rather than over full-scale nodal power networks. Due to improvements in solving large-scale stochastic mixed integer programs, these computational limitations are becoming less relevant, and the assumption that zonal models are realistic and useful approximations of nodal CEP is worth revisiting. Here, this work is the first to conduct a systematic computational study on the assumption that spatial aggregation can reasonably be used for ISO-scale CEP. By considering a realistic, large-scale test network based on the state of California with over 8000 buses, we find that well-designed small spatial aggregations can yield good approximations but that coarser zonal models may result in large distortions of investment decisions, e.g., capacity under-investment of up to 41% for the lowest resolution model considered.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A scoping study of far-SOL main-wall protection limiters for steady-state operation of compact pilot plant tokamaks

We present a novel method for handling steady-state heat fluxes incident on the main wall of pilot plant-scale magnetic fusion devices, based on the utilization of protection limiters in the far scrape-off layer (SOL). This method helps avoid large plasma-wall gaps, without excessively compromising blanket performance. We present an optimization algorithm for determining the appropriate size and scale of these protection limiters given (1) probability distributions of SOL plasma parameters and (2) assumed risk tolerance. As part of this optimization, we have developed an analytic description of parallel heat fluxes across limiter shadows, and an objective cost function (the ‘Far-SOL Marginal Cost’) to quantify the impact that different main-wall thermal management design choices have on reactor capital cost. Applying the model to a midscale fusion pilot plant concept shows that making use of far-SOL protection limiters can reduce capital costs on the order of $500 M, relative to naively increasing the plasma-wall gap. Our analysis demonstrates that the far-SOL power decay length is the highest-leverage plasma assumption for thermal loading of the first wall, and the primary cost driver for main wall thermal management. The relative cost efficiency of protection limiters increases as assumptions on the far-SOL heat flux become more pessimistic. The concepts described in this paper motivate the further development of far-SOL protection limiters as part of larger efforts to design economical core-edge-wall compatible solutions for a fusion pilot plant.

Design under uncertainty↗

Triple oxygen isotope compositions of globally distributed soil carbonates record widespread evaporation of soil waters

The stable isotopic composition of pedogenic carbonates is central to many studies of past climate and topography, providing a basis for our understanding of Earth's terrestrial history. A core assumption of many applications of oxygen isotope values (δ 18 O) of pedogenic carbonate is that they reflect the δ 18 O value of precipitation (rain/snow). Here, this assumption is violated if soil carbonates form in evaporated soil waters. In this work, we develop a means to identify evaporation in ancient soils using the triple oxygen isotope composition ( 16 O- 17 O- 18 O) of pedogenic carbonates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Designing a repository in domal salt: The influence of design variants in different modelling environments

To understand the long-term environmental impact of disposing radioactive waste of in a deep geological repository and to optimise its design, performance assessments are used. In this study, four teams (COVRA, GRS, Quintessa, and DOE) modified the previously developed generic repository of DECOVALEX task F2 to identify commonalities and differences between the teams for specific changes in repository design. The teams tested six design modifications: (1) Replacing concrete abutments with run-of-mine salt; (2) Replacing the salt seal with a concrete abutment and using run-of-mine salt instead for the two concrete abutments in each drift seal; (3) Halving the size of the infrastructure area; (4) Using run-of-mine salt instead of gravel for backfilling the infrastructure area; (5) Disposal of spent nuclear fuel without the POLLUX-10 containers (6); Lower initial saturation of the spent nuclear fuel and vitrified waste disposal drifts. Despite different modelling strategies used, models agreed that a smaller infrastructure area has a limited effect on radionuclide transport. Responses to the absence of the two concrete abutments in each seal, the use of single large concrete abutments (200 m each), or the use of run-of-mine salt in the infrastructure area differ between teams due to differing modelling assumptions. Based on these results, the estimated efficacy of containment depends strongly on the model assumptions of each team. More specifically, it appears to depend on the compaction model used and therefore on the backfill material used in different areas of the repository. However, the drift seal appears to be a critical design element in all models, effectively limiting radionuclide transport by hydrologically disconnecting sections of the repository. Additional beneficial design choices include the use of dry salt in disposal drifts to limit radionuclide transport and reducing the infrastructure area costs and minimizing host rock damage.

DECOVALEX↗

Statistical chronometry of meteorites. I. A Test of 26 Al homogeneity and the Pb-Pb age of the solar system’s $t=0$

Here, we use rapidly cooled achondrites to test the assumption of 26 Al homogeneity in the solar nebula, by checking if there is a single value of t SS , the absolute “Pb-Pb” age of the Solar System’s t=0, that makes concordant their ages from the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb systems. We find that values t SS =4568.42 ± 0.24 Myr do make these ages concordant, and therefore the hypothesis of homogeneous 26 Al is not falsified. This age, defined to be when the solar nebula had ( 26 Al/ 27 Al) = 5.23 × 10 –5 , is significantly older than the ≈ 4567.3 Myr inferred from direct measurements of Pb-Pb ages in CAIs. Discrepancies between the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb chronometers in chondrules and CAIs have previously been interpreted as arising from heterogeneities in 26 Al, under the presumption that the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb systems in CAIs closed simultaneously. We examine this assumption and show that resetting is to be expected in CAIs. In particular, we quantitatively demonstrate that it is plausible that Pb-Pb ages of CAIs were reset at late times, without resetting the earlier Al-Mg ages, if they were transiently heated in the same manner as chondrules. We critically examine Pb-Pb isochrons, refining data and suggesting best practices for their calculation and reporting. We advocate reporting chronometry as times of formation after t=0 rather than absolute ages, as only the former is useful for astrophysical models of the solar nebula. We advocate averaging of multiple samples, rather than anchoring to individual meteorites, to improve precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Unifying Energy-Management Problems for Inverter-Based Power Networks

This paper outlines a suite of energy-management problems for inverter-based power networks from the vantage point of optimal control and (non)linear optimization. The problems are categorized based on timescales dictated by the network dynamics, and organized methodologically based on the problem complexity. A growing body of literature has addressed problems in this domain, albeit, with poorly motivated assumptions and behavioral models that obscure precise device behavior. With a combination of circuit- and control-theoretic lenses, we establish appropriate dynamic models for the networked resources, illustrate how common engineering assumptions arise, uncover how problems are linked, and postulate open challenges.

(non)linear optimization↗