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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Fermi-GBM GRBs with Characteristics Similar to GRB 170817A

We present a search for gamma-ray bursts in the Fermi-GBM (Gamma Burst Monitor) 10-year catalog that show similar characteristics to GRB170817A, the first electromagnetic counterpart to a GRB (Gamma-Ray Burst) identified as a binary neutron star (BNS) merger via gravitational wave observations. Our search is focused on a nonthermal pulse, followed by a thermal component,as observed for GRB 170817A. We employ search methods based on the measured catalog parameters and Bayesian Block analysis. Our multipronged approach, which includes examination of the localization and spectral properties of the thermal component, yields a total of 13 candidates, including GRB170817A and the previously reported similar burst, GRB 150101B. The similarity of the candidates is likely caused by the same processes that shaped the gamma-ray signal of GRB170817A, thus providing evidence of a nearby sample of short GRBs resulting from BNS merger events. Some of the newly identified counterparts were observed by other space telescopes and ground observatories, but none of them have a measured redshift. We present an analysis of this subsample, and we discuss two models. From uncovering 13 candidates during a time period of 10 years we predict that Fermi-GBM will trigger on-board on about one burst similar to GRB170817A per year.

von Kienlin, A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The X-Ray Halo Scaling Relations of Supermassive Black Holes

We carry out a comprehensive Bayesian correlation analysis between hot halos and direct masses of supermassive black holes (SMBHs), by retrieving the X-ray plasma properties (temperature, luminosity, density, pressure, and masses) over galactic to cluster scales for 85 diverse systems. We find new key scalings, with the tightest relation being −, followed by −. The tighter scatter (down to 0.2 dex) and stronger correlation coefficient of all the X-ray halo scalings compared with the optical counterparts (as the −) suggest that plasma halos play a more central role than stars in tracing and growing SMBHs (especially those that are ultramassive). Moreover, correlates better with the gas mass than dark matter mass. We show the important role of the environment, morphology, and relic galaxies/coronae, as well as the main departures from virialization/self-similarity via the optical/X-ray fundamental planes. We test the three major channels for SMBH growth: hot/Bondi-like models have inconsistent anticorrelation with X-ray halos and too low feeding; cosmological simulations find SMBH mergers as subdominant over most of cosmic time and too rare to induce a central-limit-theorem effect; the scalings are consistent with chaotic cold accretion, the rain of matter condensing out of the turbulent X-ray halos that sustains a long-term self-regulated feedback loop. The new correlations are major observational constraints for models of SMBH feeding/feedback in galaxies, groups, and clusters (e.g., to test cosmological hydrodynamical simulations), and enable the study of SMBHs not only through X-rays, but also via the Sunyaev–Zel'dovich effect (Compton parameter), lensing (total masses), and cosmology (gas fractions).

Supermassive black holes↗
NASA NTRS2019

A High Binary Fraction for the Most Massive Close-in Giant Planets and Brown Dwarf Desert Members

Stellar multiplicity is believed to influence planetary formation and evolution, although the precise nature and extent of this role remain ambiguous. We present a study aimed at testing the role of stellar multiplicity in the formation and/or evolution of the most massive, close-in planetary and substellar companions. Using past and new direct imaging observations, as well as the Gaia DR2 catalogue, we searched for wide binary companions to 38 stars hosting massive giant planets or brown dwarfs (M > 7 MJup) on orbits shorter than ∼1 au. We report the discovery of a new component in the WASP-14 system, and present an independent confirmation of a comoving companion to WASP-18. From a robust Bayesian statistical analysis, we derived a binary fraction of per cent between 20 and 10 000 au for our sample, twice as high as for field stars with a 3σ significance. This binary frequency was found to be larger than for lower-mass planets on similar orbits, and we observed a marginally higher binary rate for inner companions with periods shorter than 10 d. These results demonstrate that stellar companions greatly influence the formation and/or evolution of these systems, suggesting that the role played by binary companions becomes more important for higher-mass planets, and that this trend may be enhanced for systems with tighter orbits. Our analysis also revealed a peak in binary separation at 250 au, highlighting a shortfall of close binaries among our sample. This indicates that the mechanisms affecting planet and brown dwarf formation or evolution in binaries must operate from wide separations, although we found that the Kozai–Lidov mechanism is unlikely to be the dominant underlying process. We conclude that binarity plays a crucial role in the existence of very massive short-period giant planets and brown dwarf desert inhabitants, which are almost exclusively observed in multiple systems.

C Fontanive↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Time Safety Assessment & Risk Prediction for Unmanned Aerial Systems

One of the critical challenges in emerging autonomous systems is timely mitigation of hazards encountered during operation which may not be known or accounted for at the time of design. Efficient execution of unmanned systems therefore demands a paradigm shift from scheduled periodic maintenance to predictive risk analysis that includes condition-based-monitoring, real-time reliability assessment and hazard mitigation. Particularly, the state-of-health parameters needs to be computed at the component level, unit level as well as the integrated system level. While in the former two levels, the physics of health propagation may be based on underlying electro-mechanical properties, system level prognostics often relies on data-driven models. Further, uncertainty from model, measurements and input sources should be accurately quantified to generate meaningful prediction results that can be fed into reliable decision making processes. Finally, the expected risk and time to failure has to be computed based on the current state-of-health of the overall system. This talk presents a conceptual design of such an in-time safety assurance approach for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) operating at low altitudes near and over populated areas. Typical in-flight hazard incidents include unplanned detour, proximity to obstacles, mid-flight component faults, limited battery life and poor quality of GPS measurements. Safety assessment therefore comprises trajectory generation and re-plan, battery RUL computation, distributed fault diagnostics and uncertainty management of predicted trajectory based on GPS measurement noise. The entire monitoring framework will be demonstrated on simulated as well as real UAV flight experiments conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center. This tutorial will therefore guide the audience through a step-by-step tracking of an autonomous system with focus on in-time risk prediction in the presence of unforeseen hazards and uncertain environment.

diagnostics↗
DOE OSTI2016

Multiple objective optimization in reliability demonstration test

Reliability demonstration tests are usually performed in product design or validation processes to demonstrate whether a product meets specified requirements on reliability. For binomial demonstration tests, the zero-failure test has been most commonly used due to its simplicity and use of minimum sample size to achieve an acceptable consumer’s risk level. However, this test can often result in unacceptably high risk for producers as well as a low probability of passing the test even when the product has good reliability. This paper explicitly explores the interrelationship between multiple objectives that are commonly of interest when planning a demonstration test and proposes structured decision-making procedures using a Pareto front approach for selecting an optimal test plan based on simultaneously balancing multiple criteria. Different strategies are suggested for scenarios with different user priorities and graphical tools are developed to help quantify the trade-offs between choices and to facilitate informed decision making. As a result, potential impacts of some subjective user inputs on the final decision are studied to offer insights and useful guidance for general applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate and Timely Forecasts of Geologic Carbon Storage using Machine Learning Methods

Carbon capture and storage is one strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. One approach to storing the captured CO2 is to inject it into deep saline aquifers. However, dynamics of the injected CO2 plume is uncertain and the potential for leakage back to the atmosphere must be assessed. Thus, accurate and timely forecasts of CO2 storage via real-time measurements integration becomes very crucial. This study proposes a learning-based, inverse-free prediction method that can accurately and rapidly forecast CO2 movement and distribution with uncertainty quantification based on limited simulation and observation data. The machine learning techniques include dimension reduction, multivariate data analysis, and Bayesian learning. The outcome is expected to provide CO2 storage site operators with an effective tool for real-time decision making.

Lu, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2023

A VOI Web Application for Distinct Geothermal Domains: Statistical Evaluation of Different Data Types within the Great Basin

The Great Basin region contains different domains that have different structural and hydrothermal flow patterns. Depending on the characteristics of these patterns, certain data types may be more successful at detecting hidden geothermal resources. In this paper, we quantitatively evaluate if certain data types are more successful in certain domains. Given different aquifer, strain and structural conditions, we explore which data types statistically reveal positively labeled geothermal sites. We utilize value of information (VOI) metrics to help quantify the reliability of data types to discriminate against "positive" and "negative" labeled geothermal sites. We also evaluate how kernel density estimation can help generalize the statistics that inform VOI, which is necessary given the limited data in geothermal exploration. Except for the Carbonate Aquifer, the highest ranking of the Vimperfect is the Local Structural Setting. Next, the slip and dilation tendency is first for Carbonate Aquifer and second for Central Nevada Seismic Belt and Western Great Basin. For the Carbonate Aquifer, heat flow is has the lowest Vimperfect value compared to the other three domains, which is consistent with the understanding of how heat flow measurements are masked by regional groundwater flow.

Bayesian analysis↗
DOE OSTI2018

Long-term Prediction of Spent Fuel Storage Canisters - Issues and Approaches - 18112

The considerations involved in aging management of stainless steel canisters used in dry cask storage of spent fuel are discussed in this paper in a probabilistic framework. The two important modes of degradation in the long-term performance of the casks are localized corrosion and stress corrosion cracking initiating from the external surface. These degradation modes are determined by the evolution of the electrochemical behavior and the strain rate of the stainless steel. Laboratory data suggest that Type 304L/316L stainless steels should suffer from localized corrosion and SCC under salt deposits. However, field inspection of the canisters has not indicated extensive pitting or stress corrosion cracking. This discrepancy can be understood in terms of the joint probabilities of various factors that must come together to cause these failure modes. A Bayesian network approach is suggested as the framework for modeling the probability of failure of canisters and long-term management of aging. The gaps in knowledge to conduct a Bayesian network analysis are discussed. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Model Inadequacy in TRISO Nuclear Fuel Fission Products Release Models: Empirical and Mechanistic Approaches

The increasing use of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel in both advanced and existing reactors necessitates a thorough evaluation of uncertainties and shortcomings in TRISO fission product release models. These inadequacies arise from the simplifications made in computational models compared to experimental data. Utilizing the BISON fuel performance code and experimental data from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program provides a unique chance to rigorously assess these inadequacies within a Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. This study contrasts the standard Bayesian framework with the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) framework, which explicitly accounts for modeling inadequacies, in the context of UQ for TRISO silver release models. It examines both the traditional Arrhenius equation and a more advanced lower-length-scale (LLS)-informed model that incorporates microstructure information. The inverse UQ process applied to AGR-2 and AGR-3/4 datasets identified modeling inadequacy as the primary source of uncertainty, with experimental noise also being significant, while model parameter uncertainty was minimal. Both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models showed similar levels of modeling inadequacy. For forward predictive UQ using the AGR-1 dataset, the KOH framework enhanced the accuracy and quality of quantified uncertainties by approximately 30% and 40%, respectively, compared to the standard Bayesian framework. This improvement was observed for both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models. At the engineering scale, both models performed similarly, but the LLS-informed model outperformed the Arrhenius equation at the mesoscale. These findings underscore the importance of explicitly considering modeling inadequacy in the UQ process and highlight the need for ongoing refinement of physics-based models to address these shortcomings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Developing a Validation Methodology for Expert-Informed Bayesian Network Models Supporting Nuclear Nonproliferation Analysis

Under the auspices of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Signature Discovery Initiative (SDI), the research team developed a series of Bayesian Network models to assess multi-source signatures of nuclear programs. A Bayesian network is a mathematical model that can be used to marshal evidence to assess competing hypotheses. The purpose of the models was to allow non-expert analysts to benefit from the use of expert-informed mathematical models to assess nuclear programs, because such assessments require significant technical expertise ranging from the nuclear fuel cycle, construction and engineering, imagery analysis, and so forth. One such model developed under this research was aimed at assessing the consistency of open-source information about a nuclear facility with the facility’s declared use. The model incorporates factors such as location, security and safety features among others identified by subject matter experts as crucial to their assessments. The model includes key features, observables and their relationships. The model also provides documentation, which serves as training materials for the non-experts.

White, Amanda M.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Advanced Statistical Methods in Spacecraft Flight Software Cost Estimation: Bayesian Regression and Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis to Support System Engineering in the Early Project Lifecycle

This paper provides an overview of the new features and model updates in the upcoming release of the NASA Analogy Software Cost Tool (ASCoT). ASCoT, hosted within the Online NASA Space Estimation Tools (ONSET) on the One NASA Cost Engineering (ONCE) Database, is a web-based tool that provides a suite of estimation tools to support early lifecycle NASA flight software cost analysis. In addition to the traditional parametric flight software costing method COCOMO II, ASCoT contains a Bayesian linear regression to predict total flight software development cost as a function of total spacecraft cost, as well as four analogic methods: k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) and Clustering models to predict Effort (in work-months) and total source lines of code (SLOC). These methods are designed to work primarily with system-level inputs such as mission type (orbiter, lander, etc.), mission destination (Earth, Inner Planetary, etc.), and the number of instruments and deployables. Nonlinear principal components analysis (NLPCA) is performed to find the principal features of the data composed of both categorical and numerical variables and is necessary prior to defining our analogic methods. Sensitivity analyses and in- and out-of-sample model performance results are presented for the Bayesian CER and the analogic models.

Johnson, James K.↗
DOE OSTI2013

A Bayesian technique for improving the sensitivity of the atmospheric neutrino L/E analysis

This paper outlines a method for improving the precision of atmospheric neutrino oscillation measurements. One experimental signature for these oscillations is an observed deficit in the rate of ν μ charged-current interactions with an oscillatory dependence on L ν / E ν , where L ν is the neutrino propagation distance and E mrow is="true"> ν is the neutrino energy. For contained-vertex atmospheric neutrino interactions, the L ν / E ν resolution varies significantly from event to event. The precision of the oscillation measurement can be improved by incorporating information on L ν / E ν resolution into the oscillation analysis. In the analysis presented here, a Bayesian technique is used to estimate the L ν / E ν resolution of observed atmospheric neutrinos on an event-by-event basis. By separating the events into bins of L ν / E ν resolution in the oscillation analysis, a significant improvement in oscillation sensitivity can be achieved.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2003

Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis

Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using Bayesian Methodology to Estimate Liquefied Natural Gas Leak Frequencies

This analysis provides estimates on the leak frequencies of nine components found in liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities. Data was taken from a variety of sources, with 25 different data sets included in the analysis. A hierarchical Bayesian model was used that assumes that the log leak frequency follows a normal distribution and the logarithm of the mean of this normal distribution is a linear function of the logarithm of the fractional leak area. This type of model uses uninformed prior distributions that are updated with applicable data. Separate models are fit for each component listed. Five order-of-magnitude fractional leak areas are considered, based on the flow area of the component. Three types of supporting analyses were performed: sensitivity of the model to the data set used, sensitivity of the leak frequency estimates to differences in the model structure or prior distributions, and sufficiency of sample sized used for convergence. Recommended leak frequency distributions for all component types and leak sizes are given. These leak frequency predictions can be used for quantitative risk assessments in the future.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Particle image velocimetry analysis with simultaneous uncertainty quantification using Bayesian neural networks

Particle image velocimetry (PIV) is an effective tool in experimental fluid mechanics for extracting flow fields from images. Recently, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been used to perform PIV analysis with accuracy on par with classical methods. Here we extend the use of CNNs to analyze PIV data while providing simultaneous uncertainty quantification on the inferred flow field. The method we apply in this paper is a Bayesian convolutional neural network (BCNN) which learns distributions of the CNN weights through variational Bayes. In order to demonstrate the utility of BCNNs for the PIV task, we compare the performance of three distinct BCNN models with simple architectures. The first network estimates flow velocity from image interrogation regions only. Our second model learns to infer velocity from both the image interrogation regions and interrogation region cross-correlation maps. Finally, our best performing network infers velocities from interrogation region cross-correlation maps only. We find that BCNNs using interrogation region cross-correlation maps as inputs perform better than those using interrogation windows only as inputs and discuss reasons why this may be the case. Additionally, we test the best performing BCNN on a full synthetic test image pair and a real image pair from the 1st International PIV Challenge. We show that ~98% of true particle displacements from the full synthetic image pair can be captured within the BCNN's 95% confidence intervals, and that the BCNN's performance on the real image pair is quantitatively similar to that of algorithms tested in the 1st International PIV Challenge. Finally, we show that BCNNs can be generalized to be used with multi-pass PIV algorithms with a moderate loss in accuracy, which may be overcome by future work on finetuning and training schemes. So to our knowledge, this is the first use of Bayesian neural networks to perform PIV.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Human reliability analysis studies from simulator experiments using Bayesian inference

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of complex facilities is performed to arrive at the risk posed by them. PSA also accounts for the contribution of the human errors towards the overall risk through Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) in terms of Human Error Probability (HEP). Human operators are part of the system and do not work in isolation. Their performance is influenced by the context in which the actions are performed. As a result, quantification of HEP requires operator performance data under the given context. Some good sources of operator performance data are plant‘s operation data, simulator data and expert judgement. The plant operation data pertaining to HRA is generally sparse. In this situation, a full scope plant simulator provides a good alternative for operator performance data generation. Many of the currently practiced HRA methods have been developed by combining the empirical evidence with expert judgement and contain a lot of uncertainty in their estimates. Bayesian inference is suitable for updating the prior HRA estimates with the simulator evidence to obtain the posterior HEP. Here, posterior HEP has been calculated for postulated accident scenarios in advanced reactor (first of its kind) at design stage, using plant simulator.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗