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Results for “Bayesian Optimization”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Surrogates for numerical simulations; optimization of eddy-promoter heat exchangers

Although the advent of fast and inexpensive parallel computers has rendered numerous previously intractable calculations feasible, many numerical simulations remain too resource-intensive to be directly inserted in engineering optimization efforts. An attractive alternative to direct insertion considers models for computational systems: the expensive simulation is evoked only to construct and validate a simplified, input-output model; this simplified input-output model then serves as a simulation surrogate in subsequent engineering optimization studies. A simple 'Bayesian-validated' statistical framework for the construction, validation, and purposive application of static computer simulation surrogates is presented. As an example, dissipation-transport optimization of laminar-flow eddy-promoter heat exchangers are considered: parallel spectral element Navier-Stokes calculations serve to construct and validate surrogates for the flowrate and Nusselt number; these surrogates then represent the originating Navier-Stokes equations in the ensuing design process.

Patera, Anthony T.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Optimizing observing sequence design for periodic and non-periodic phenomena : a Bayesian approach

In this paper we report on our progress on addressing these issues. We have developed an approximate expression for the uniformity of phase coverage that can be used when scheduling to assess candidate sample times. We describe the results obtained using this estimator, and compare them with detailed simulations. We describe our progress and plans for integrating optimizing criteria for both periodic and non-periodic observations into a single observation sequence.

Bayesian↗
DOE OSTI2021

Particle transport constraints via Bayesian spectral fitting of multiple atomic lines

Optimized operation of fusion devices demands detailed understanding of plasma transport, a problem that must be addressed with advances in both measurement and data analysis techniques. In this work, we adopt Bayesian inference methods to determine experimental particle transport, leveraging opportunities from high-resolution He-like ion spectra in a tokamak plasma. The Bayesian spectral fitting code is used to analyze resonance (w), forbidden (z), intercombination (x, y), and satellite (k, j) lines of He-like Ca following laser blow-off injections on Alcator C-Mod. This offers powerful transport constraints since these lines depend differently on electron temperature and density, but also differ in their relation to Li-like, He-like, and H-like ion densities, often the dominant Ca charge states over most of the C-Mod plasma radius. Using synthetic diagnostics based on the AURORA package, we demonstrate improved effectiveness of impurity transport inferences when spectroscopic data from a progressively larger number of lines are included.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Particle transport constraints via Bayesian spectral fitting of multiple atomic lines

Optimized operation of fusion devices demands detailed understanding of plasma transport, a problem that must be addressed with advances in both measurement and data analysis techniques. In this work, we adopt Bayesian inference methods to determine experimental particle transport, leveraging opportunities from high-resolution He-like ion spectra in a tokamak plasma. The Bayesian spectral fitting code is used to analyze resonance (w), forbidden (z), intercombination (x, y), and satellite (k, j) lines of He-like Ca following laser blow-off injections on Alcator C-Mod. This offers powerful transport constraints since these lines depend differently on electron temperature and density, but also differ in their relation to Li-like, He-like, and H-like ion densities, often the dominant Ca charge states over most of the C-Mod plasma radius. Using synthetic diagnostics based on the AURORA package, we demonstrate improved effectiveness of impurity transport inferences when spectroscopic data from a progressively larger number of lines are included.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

MADLens, a python package for fast and differentiable non-Gaussian lensing simulations

Here, we present MADLens a python package for producing non-Gaussian lensing convergence maps at arbitrary source redshifts with unprecedented precision. MADLens is designed to achieve high accuracy while keeping computational costs as low as possible. A MADLens simulation with only particles produces convergence maps whose power agrees with theoretical lensing power spectra up to within the accuracy limits of HaloFit. This is made possible by a combination of a highly parallelizable particle-mesh algorithm, a sub-evolution scheme in the lensing projection, and a machine-learning inspired sharpening step. Further, MADLens is fully differentiable with respect to the initial conditions of the underlying particle-mesh simulations and a number of cosmological parameters. These properties allow MADLens to be used as a forward model in Bayesian inference algorithms that require optimization or derivative-aided sampling. Another use case for MADLens is the production of large, high resolution simulation sets as they are required for training novel deep-learning-based lensing analysis tools. We make the MADLens package publicly available under a Creative Commons License

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Model Selection as a Continuous-Variable Helmholtz Machine

We show that Bayesian model selection is equivalent to optimization of a suitably defined free energy. The entropy term in the free energy is defined over the space of possible model selections and model parameters for a given model. Bayesian model selection thus follows a minimum description length principle.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inferring Type II-P Supernova Progenitor Masses from Plateau Luminosities

Abstract Connecting observations of core-collapse supernova explosions to the properties of their massive star progenitors is a long-sought, and challenging, goal of supernova science. Recently, Barker et al. presented bolometric light curves for a landscape of progenitors from spherically symmetric neutrino-driven core-collapse supernova (CCSN) simulations using an effective model. They find a tight relationship between the plateau luminosity of the Type II-P CCSN light curve and the terminal iron-core mass of the progenitor. Remarkably, this allows us to constrain progenitor properties with photometry alone. We analyze a large observational sample of Type II-P CCSN light curves and estimate a distribution of iron-core masses using the relationship of Barker et al. The inferred distribution matches extremely well with the distribution of iron-core masses from stellar evolutionary models and namely, contains high-mass iron cores that suggest contributions from very massive progenitors in the observational data. We use this distribution of iron-core masses to infer minimum and maximum masses of progenitors in the observational data. Using Bayesian inference methods to locate optimal initial mass function parameters, we find M min = 9.8 − 0.27 + 0.37 and M max = 24.0 − 1.9 + 3.9 solar masses for the observational data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Multi-Armed Bayesian Ordinal Outcome Utility-Based Sequential Trial with a Pairwise Null Clustering Prior

A multi-armed trial based on ordinal outcomes is proposed that leverages a flexible non-proportional odds cumulative logit model and numerical utility scores for each outcome to determine treatment optimality. This trial design uses a Bayesian clustering prior on the treatment effects that encourages the pairwise null hypothesis of no differences between treatments. A group sequential design is proposed to determine which treatments are clinically different with an adaptive decision boundary that becomes more aggressive as the sample size or clinical significance grows, or the number of active treatments decreases. A simulation study is conducted for 3 and 5 treatment arms, which shows that the design has superior operating characteristics (family wise error rate, generalized power, average sample size) compared to utility designs that do not allow clustering, a frequentist proportional odds model, or a permutation test based on empirical mean utilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the design of integrated methane sensing networks

Abstract While methane is the second largest contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide, it has a larger warming effect over a much shorter lifetime. Despite accelerated technological efforts to radically reduce global carbon dioxide emissions, rapid reductions in methane emissions are needed to limit near-term warming. Being primarily emitted as a byproduct from agricultural activities and energy extraction, methane is currently monitored via bottom–up (i.e. activity level) or top–down (via airborne or satellite retrievals) approaches. However, significant methane leaks remain undetected and emission rates are challenging to characterize with current monitoring frameworks. In this paper, we study the design of a layered monitoring approach that combines bottom–up and top–down approaches as an integrated sensing network. By recognizing that varying meteorological conditions and emission rates impact the efficacy of bottom–up monitoring, we develop a probabilistic approach to optimal sensor placement in its bottom–up network. Subsequently, we derive an inverse Bayesian framework to quantify the improvement that a design-optimized integrated framework has on emission-rate quantifications and their uncertainties. We find that under realistic meteorological conditions, the overall error in estimating the true emission rates is approximately 1.3 times higher, with their uncertainties being approximately 2.4 times higher, when using a randomized network over an optimized network, highlighting the importance of optimizing the design of integrated methane sensing networks. Further, we find that optimized networks can improve scenario coverage fractions by more than a factor of 2 over experimentally-studied networks, and identify a budget threshold beyond which the rate of optimized-network coverage improvement exhibits diminishing returns, suggesting that strategic sensor placement is also crucial for maximizing network efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal Estimation Retrievals and Their Uncertainties: What Every Atmospheric Scientist Should Know

Remote sensing instruments are heavily used to provide observations for both the operational and research communities. These sensors do not provide direct observations of the desired atmospheric variables, but instead, retrieval algorithms are necessary to convert the indirect observations into the variable of interest. It is critical to be aware of the underlying assumptions made by many retrieval algorithms, including that the retrieval problem is often ill posed and that there are various sources of uncertainty that need to be treated properly. In short, the retrieval challenge is to invert a set of noisy observations to obtain estimates of atmospheric quantities. The problem is often complicated by imperfect forward models, by imperfect prior knowledge, and by the existence of nonunique solutions. Optimal estimation (OE) is a widely used physical retrieval method that combines measurements, prior information, and the corresponding uncertainties based on Bayes’s theorem to find an optimal solution for the atmospheric state. Furthermore, OE also allows the relative contributions of the different sources of error to the uncertainty in the final retrieved atmospheric state to be understood. Here, we provide a novel Python library to illustrate the use of OE for inverse problems in the atmospheric sciences. We introduce two example problems: how to retrieve drop size distribution parameters from radar observations and how to retrieve the temperature profile from ground-based microwave sensors. Using these examples, we discuss common pitfalls, how the various error sources impact the retrieval, and how the quality of the retrieval results can be quantified.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Decentralized Signal Processing and Distributed Control of Collaborative Autonomous Networks (17-ERD-101 LDRD Final Report)

Intelligent autonomous sensor networks, often comprised of large numbers of sensors, must be capable of jointly exploiting data collected at each agent in the network, and using that data to optimize their future actions towards multiple mission objectives. Centralized signal processing and optimization solutions process all data and determine all future actions at a single agent, and the resulting information and commands are disseminated back to the network. The communications bandwidth this requires and the single point of failure the central agent represents often make these solutions untenable for national security applications. In this project, several fundamental algorithms for solving both the decentralized signal processing and network optimization were developed, as well as simulation software to validate the results of these algorithms at scale. Specifically, novel algorithms for Bayesian decentralized estimation and decentralized detection and optimization based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) were developed for autonomous sensor networks and published in the literature. The first large scale simulation of autonomous sensor networks (1000 agents) was conducted on this project, validating the performance of the developed algorithms. These algorithms and simulation tools are critical components of any decentralized autonomous network and have current and future national security applications, including distributed sensor networks for detection, estimation, and tracking problems, and large decentralized cyber-physical infrastructure such as the power grid.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

An Efficient Bayesian Method for Advancing the Application of Deep Learning in Earth Science

Despite their wide and successful applications, deep learning (DL) models are prone to overfitting for small training datasets, produce a poor predictive performance for uncertain data, and provide point estimations without any indication of the accuracy and credibility. These limitations of the deterministic DL models hinder their effective application in Earth system science where the labelled data are sparse, noisy and incomplete with large uncertainty and where the predictive uncertainty quantification is needed for scientific understanding and policy decision making. Integration of Bayesian inference into DL models adds an estimate of uncertainty and regularization in the predictions. However, traditional Bayesian methods are computationally unaffordable and inflexible for high-dimensional problems, which limits their application to DL systems that typically have millions of model parameters. In this effort, we propose an efficient and general-purpose Bayesian inference method to advance DL model optimization and uncertainty quantification, so as to facilitate the adoption of DL in Earth sciences. In a demonstration, we integrate the proposed Bayesian method with a feedforward neural network (NN) to build a fast-to-evaluate surrogate of the complex Energy Exascale Earth System Land Model for efficient modeling. The formulated Bayesian NN, using a small number of training data, produces an accurate prediction with high credibility, whereas with the same small training size, the deterministic NN cannot yield a reasonable estimation and does not provide confidence information. The proposed Bayesian method is computationally efficient and flexible, capable of integration with diverse network variants such as convolutional NNs and recurrent NNs to advance the application of DL in Earth sciences.

Lu, Dan↗
NASA NTRS2005

Bayesian Retrieval of Complete Posterior PDFs of Oceanic Rain Rate From Microwave Observations

This paper presents a new Bayesian algorithm for retrieving surface rain rate from Tropical Rainfall Measurements Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) over the ocean, along with validations against estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). The Bayesian approach offers a rigorous basis for optimally combining multichannel observations with prior knowledge. While other rain rate algorithms have been published that are based at least partly on Bayesian reasoning, this is believed to be the first self-contained algorithm that fully exploits Bayes Theorem to yield not just a single rain rate, but rather a continuous posterior probability distribution of rain rate. To advance our understanding of theoretical benefits of the Bayesian approach, we have conducted sensitivity analyses based on two synthetic datasets for which the true conditional and prior distribution are known. Results demonstrate that even when the prior and conditional likelihoods are specified perfectly, biased retrievals may occur at high rain rates. This bias is not the result of a defect of the Bayesian formalism but rather represents the expected outcome when the physical constraint imposed by the radiometric observations is weak, due to saturation effects. It is also suggested that the choice of the estimators and the prior information are both crucial to the retrieval. In addition, the performance of our Bayesian algorithm is found to be comparable to that of other benchmark algorithms in real-world applications, while having the additional advantage of providing a complete continuous posterior probability distribution of surface rain rate.

Chiu, J. Christine↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improved Bayesian regularization of inverse problems in vibrations and acoustics using noise-only measurements

Here, this paper studies Tikhonov regularization (ridge regression) parameter selection for problems in vibrations and acoustics. The selection method is based on a popular Bayesian method, but it incorporates measurements of sensor noise. The regularization parameter is closely related to the ratio of system input energy to noise energy, so noise measurements inform the inference procedure and improve parameter identification. In cases where standard Bayesian regularization identifies zero as the optimal regularization parameter, noise measurements guarantee a unique nonzero optimum. Sufficient theoretical criteria are developed for this guarantee. The method is verified in even-determined and under-determined configurations in an acoustic source localization simulation and a vibration load identification experiment. It is shown to yield significant improvements over existing empirical Bayesian regularization. Improvements are larger in the even-determined case and smaller in the under-determined case, wherein the inverse solution is less sensitive to the regularization parameter.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Multidimensional sum-up rounding for integer programming in optimal experimental design

Here we present a numerical method for approximating the solution of convex integer programs stemming from optimal experimental design. The statistical setup consists of a Bayesian framework for linear inverse problems for which the direct relationship is described by a discretized integral equation. Specifically, we aim to find the optimal sensor placement from a set of candidate locations where data are collected with measurement error. The convex objective function is a measure of the uncertainty, described here by the trace or log-determinant of the posterior covariance matrix, for the discretized linear inverse problem solution. The resulting convex integer program is relaxed, producing a lower bound. An upper bound is obtained by extending the sum-up rounding approach to multiple dimensions. For this extension, we analyze its accuracy as a function of the discretization mesh size for a rectangular domain. We show asymptotic optimality of the integer solution defining the upper bound for different experimental design criteria (A- and D-optimal), by proving the convergence to zero of the gap between the upper and lower bounds as the mesh size goes to zero. The technique is illustrated on a two-dimensional gravity surveying problem for both A-optimal and D-optimal sensor placement where our designs yield better results compared with a thresholding rounding approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Optimization of process models for determining volatility distribution and viscosity of organic aerosols from isothermal particle evaporation data

The composition of organic aerosol under different ambient conditions as well as their phase state have been a subject of intense study in recent years. One way to study particle properties is to measure the particle size shrinkage in a diluted environment at isothermal conditions. From these measurements it is possible to separate the fraction of low-volatility compounds from high-volatility compounds. In this work, we analyse and evaluate a method for obtaining particle composition and viscosity from measurements using process models coupled with input optimization algorithms. Two optimization methods, the Monte Carlo genetic algorithm and Bayesian inference, are used together with process models describing the dynamics of particle evaporation. The process model optimization scheme in inferring particle composition in a volatility-basis-set sense and composition-dependent particle viscosity is tested with artificially generated data sets and real experimental data. Optimizing model input so that the output matches these data yields a good match for the estimated quantities. Both optimization methods give equally good results when they are used to estimate particle composition to artificially test data. Finally, the timescale of the experiments and the initial particle size are found to be important in defining the range of values that can be identified for the properties from the optimization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forward and inverse modeling of fault transmissibility in subsurface flows

Characterizing physical properties of faults, such as their transmissibility, is crucial for performing predictive numerical simulation of subsurface flows, such as those encountered in petroleum engineering and remediation of subsurface contamination. Here, this paper provides a complete investigation of the inverse problem for fault transmissibility in subsurface flow models, under appropriate assumptions on fault structure. In particular, the following aspects are considered: 1) fault modeling and well-posedness of the forward problem; 2) finite element (FEM) discretizations of the forward problem and their rigorous a priori convergence analysis; 3) Well-posedness of the Bayesian inverse problem, FEM discretization of the infinite dimensional Bayesian inverse formulation, and its rigorous a priori analysis. Moreover, computation of the maximum a posteriori (MAP) point via fast inexact Newton-conjugate gradient optimization and a Laplace approximation of the Bayesian posterior are also presented. Numerical results illustrate the use of the proposed fault model in forward and inverse problems for subsurface flows in two dimensional domains with multiple faults.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian inversion and the Tomita–Takesaki modular group

We show that conditional expectations, optimal hypotheses, disintegrations and adjoints of unital completely positive maps are all instances of Bayesian inverses. We study the existence of the latter by means of the Tomita–Takesaki modular group and we provide extensions of a theorem of Takesaki as well as a theorem of Accardi and Cecchini to the setting of not necessarily faithful states on finite-dimensional C* -algebras.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗