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Lunar Exploration Architecture Level Key Drivers and Sensitivities

Strategic level analysis of the integrated behavior of lunar transportation and lunar surface systems architecture options is performed to assess the benefit, viability, affordability, and robustness of system design choices. This analysis employs both deterministic and probabilistic modeling techniques so that the extent of potential future uncertainties associated with each option are properly characterized. The results of these analyses are summarized in a predefined set of high-level Figures of Merit (FOMs) so as to provide senior NASA Constellation Program (CxP) and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) management with pertinent information to better inform strategic level decision making. The strategic level exploration architecture model is designed to perform analysis at as high a level as possible but still capture those details that have major impacts on system performance. The strategic analysis methodology focuses on integrated performance, affordability, and risk analysis, and captures the linkages and feedbacks between these three areas. Each of these results leads into the determination of the high-level FOMs. This strategic level analysis methodology has been previously applied to Space Shuttle and International Space Station assessments and is now being applied to the development of the Constellation Program point-of-departure lunar architecture. This paper provides an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and the lunar exploration architecture analyses to date. In studying these analysis results, the strategic analysis team has identified and characterized key drivers affecting the integrated architecture behavior. These key drivers include inclusion of a cargo lander, mission rate, mission location, fixed-versus- variable costs/return on investment, and the requirement for probabilistic analysis. Results of sensitivity analysis performed on lunar exploration architecture scenarios are also presented.

Goodliff, Kandyce↗

Comparison of Electrical Output Format Options for the Analysis of Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data

Fundamental characteristics of three gage output formats are discussed that may be used to both interpret and analyze wind tunnel strain-gage balance data. The first output format uses raw outputs, i.e., absolute voltage measurements, for the analysis. This choice requires an intercept term in the regression model of the outputs if the Iterative Method is chosen for the load prediction. Raw outputs can be used for the analysis of all known output characteristics as long as the Iterative Method is applied. However, raw outputs cannot be used to analyze data of a balance with bi-directional outputs if the Non-Iterative Method is chosen for the analysis. The second output format, i.e., difference type 1, uses the difference between raw outputs and the natural zeros of the balance gages for the analysis. In this case, the use of the intercept term becomes optional. Analysis results for difference type 1 will exactly match analysis results obtained by using raw outputs as long as identical math models are used for the regression analysis. In addition, difference type 1 may be used to analyze data of a balance with bi directional outputs if an analyst prefers to process data using the Non-Iterative Method. The third output format, i.e., difference type 2, uses the difference between raw outputs and the outputs of the zero load point of a load series for the data analysis. The application of this format is only recommended if the maximum magnitude of all tare loads of a given balance calibration data set is less than two percent of capacity. Data from the calibration of a force balance is used to illustrate the application of the three gage output formats.

Wind Tunnel Strain-Gage Balance↗

Evaluation of Higher-order Quadrature Schemes in Improving Computational Efficiency for Orientation-averaged Single-Scattering Properties of Nonspherical Ice Particles

We evaluate several high-order quadrature schemes for accuracy and efficacy in obtaining orientation-averaged single-scattering properties (SSPs). We use the highly efficient MIDAS to perform electromagnetic scattering calculations to evaluate the gain in efficiency from these schemes. MIDAS is shown to be superior to DDSCAT, a popular discrete dipole approximation (DDA) method. This study is motivated by the fact that quality physical precipitation retrievals rely on using accurate orientation-averaged SSPs derived from realistic hydrometeors as input to radiative transfer Models (RTMs). The DDA has been a popular choice for single-scattering calculations, due to its versatility with respect to target geometry. However, being iterative-solver-based (ISB), the most used DDA codes, e.g. DDSCAT and ADDA, must solve the scattering problem for each orientation of the target separately. As the size parameter and geometric anisotropy of the hydrometeor increase, the number of orientations needed to obtain accurate orientation-averages can increase drastically and so does the computation cost incurred by the ISB-DDA methods. MIDAS is a Direct-Solver-Based (DSB) code, its decomposition of the original large matrix with a high rank into multiple more manageable smaller matrices of lower ranks makes it much more computationally efficient while maintaining excellent accuracy. In addition, direct solvers consider all requested orientations at once, giving MIDAS further advantage over popular ISB-DDA methods. MIDAS, when combined with high-order quadrature for orientation averaging, can be greater than three orders of magnitude more efficient in obtaining RTM-ready SSPs of complex-shaped hydrometeors than existing ISB-DDA methods, with the native quadrature schemes they offer.

Ines Fenni↗

Quantum surrogate models for uncertainty quantification

Surrogate models are a critical ingredient to computation-based design and validation of many DOE mission-relevant physical systems. When first-principles computation of properties of a physical systems becomes pro hibitive, surrogate models are the only path towards achieving tasks such as uncertainty quantification (UQ), exploration of design space, and validation of design choices. In this project we have developed and demonstrated a new surro gate modeling paradigm for complex models that is data-driven, non-intrusive, and has the potential to be versatile and equipped with performance guaran tees. This combination of features is absent in existing surrogate modeling tools. The framework we have developed in this project exploits a quantum-classical correspondence to establish a quantum system that mimics the dynamics of the classical Hamiltonian system from which data in the form of temporal snapshots is provided. Since quantum dynamics propagates distributions over observables, the framework is naturally suited to propagation of epistemic uncertainties in the form of distributions over initial state and parametric uncertainties. In this project, we take the first step in establishing this novel framework by deriving a quantization and de-quantization procedure, demonstrating the accuracy of the quantum surrogate models these define using two model systems, and defining the next steps in maturing the framework towards a tool applicable to Sandia mission-relevant problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Animal models for osteoporosis

Animal models will continue to be important tools in the quest to understand the contribution of specific genes to establishment of peak bone mass and optimal bone architecture, as well as the genetic basis for a predisposition toward accelerated bone loss in the presence of co-morbidity factors such as estrogen deficiency. Existing animal models will continue to be useful for modeling changes in bone metabolism and architecture induced by well-defined local and systemic factors. However, there is a critical unfulfilled need to develop and validate better animal models to allow fruitful investigation of the interaction of the multitude of factors which precipitate senile osteoporosis. Well characterized and validated animal models that can be recommended for investigation of the etiology, prevention and treatment of several forms of osteoporosis have been listed in Table 1. Also listed are models which are provisionally recommended. These latter models have potential but are inadequately characterized, deviate significantly from the human response, require careful choice of strain or age, or are not practical for most investigators to adopt. It cannot be stressed strongly enough that the enormous potential of laboratory animals as models for osteoporosis can only be realized if great care is taken in the choice of an appropriate species, age, experimental design, and measurements. Poor choices will results in misinterpretation of results which ultimately can bring harm to patients who suffer from osteoporosis by delaying advancement of knowledge.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

Sensitivity of Age-of-Air Calculations to the Choice of Advection Scheme

The age of air has recently emerged as a diagnostic of atmospheric transport unaffected by chemical parameterizations, and the features in the age distributions computed in models have been interpreted in terms of the models' large-scale circulation field. This study shows, however, that in addition to the simulated large-scale circulation, three-dimensional age calculations can also be affected by the choice of advection scheme employed in solving the tracer continuity equation, Specifically, using the 3.0deg latitude X 3.6deg longitude and 40 vertical level version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory SKYHI GCM and six online transport schemes ranging from Eulerian through semi-Lagrangian to fully Lagrangian, it will be demonstrated that the oldest ages are obtained using the nondiffusive centered-difference schemes while the youngest ages are computed with a semi-Lagrangian transport (SLT) scheme. The centered- difference schemes are capable of producing ages older than 10 years in the mesosphere, thus eliminating the "young bias" found in previous age-of-air calculations. At this stage, only limited intuitive explanations can be advanced for this sensitivity of age-of-air calculations to the choice of advection scheme, In particular, age distributions computed online with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (MACCM3) using different varieties of the SLT scheme are substantially older than the SKYHI SLT distribution. The different varieties, including a noninterpolating-in-the-vertical version (which is essentially centered-difference in the vertical), also produce a narrower range of age distributions than the suite of advection schemes employed in the SKYHI model. While additional MACCM3 experiments with a wider range of schemes would be necessary to provide more definitive insights, the older and less variable MACCM3 age distributions can plausibly be interpreted as being due to the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian dynamics employed in the MACCM3. This type of dynamical core (employed with a 60-min time step) is likely to reduce SLT's interpolation errors that are compounded by the short-term variability characteristic of the explicit centered-difference dynamics employed in the SKYHI model (time step of 3 min). In the extreme case of a very slowly varying circulation, the choice of advection scheme has no effect on two-dimensional (latitude-height) age-of-air calculations, owing to the smooth nature of the transport circulation in 2D models. These results suggest that nondiffusive schemes may be the preferred choice for multiyear simulations of tracers not overly sensitive to the requirement of monotonicity (this category includes many greenhouse gases). At the same time, age-of-air calculations offer a simple quantitative diagnostic of a scheme's long-term diffusive properties and may help in the evaluation of dynamical cores in multiyear integrations. On the other hand, the sensitivity of the computed ages to the model numerics calls for caution in using age of air as a diagnostic of a GCM's large-scale circulation field.

Eluszkiewicz, Janusz↗

Technoeconomic analysis of perovskite/silicon tandem solar modules

Tandem photovoltaic (PV) modules offer an opportunity to improve the efficiency and energy yield of available solar resources compared with single-junction devices. Here, we present a cost model and sensitivity analysis of perovskite/silicon (Si) tandem modules to understand how design choices impact overall module costs. We find a minimum sustainable price (MSP) of $\$$0.428/W DC for our baseline two-terminal design and $\$$0.423/W DC for our baseline four-terminal design, each at a module efficiency of 25% and module production of 3 GW per year in the United States. We find that the choice of Si cell architecture, overall module efficiency, and factory throughput have the most significant impacts on cost and competitiveness. The dynamic model provided is designed for researchers, companies, and interested individuals to use and edit as needed to better understand the trade-offs among PV module technologies and enable targeted research to improve module design and fabrication.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Predicting the effects of unmodeled dynamics on an aircraft flight control system design using eigenspace assignment

When using eigenspace assignment to design an aircraft flight control system, one must first develop a model of the plant. Certain questions arise when creating this model as to which dynamics of the plant need to be included in the model and which dynamics can be left out or approximated. The answers to these questions are important because a poor choice can lead to closed-loop dynamics that are unpredicted by the design model. To alleviate this problem, a method has been developed for predicting the effect of not including certain dynamics in the design model on the final closed-loop eigenspace. This development provides insight as to which characteristics of unmodeled dynamics will ultimately affect the closed-loop rigid-body dynamics. What results from this insight is a guide for eigenstructure control law designers to aid them in determining which dynamics need or do not need to be included and a new way to include these dynamics in the flight control system design model to achieve a required accuracy in the closed-loop rigid-body dynamics. The method is illustrated for a lateral-directional flight control system design using eigenspace assignment for the NASA High Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV).

Johnson, Eric N.↗

Panel methods: An introduction

Panel methods are numerical schemes for solving (the Prandtl-Glauert equation) for linear, inviscid, irrotational flow about aircraft flying at subsonic or supersonic speeds. The tools at the panel-method user's disposal are (1) surface panels of source-doublet-vorticity distributions that can represent nearly arbitrary geometry, and (2) extremely versatile boundary condition capabilities that can frequently be used for creative modeling. Panel-method capabilities and limitations, basic concepts common to all panel-method codes, different choices that were made in the implementation of these concepts into working computer programs, and various modeling techniques involving boundary conditions, jump properties, and trailing wakes are discussed. An approach for extending the method to nonlinear transonic flow is also presented. Three appendices supplement the main test. In appendix 1, additional detail is provided on how the basic concepts are implemented into a specific computer program (PANAIR). In appendix 2, it is shown how to evaluate analytically the fundamental surface integral that arises in the expressions for influence-coefficients, and evaluate its jump property. In appendix 3, a simple example is used to illustrate the so-called finite part of the improper integrals.

Erickson, Larry L.↗

Is Bias Correction in Dynamical Downscaling Defensible?

Localized projections of 21st‐century hydroclimate variables obtained from downscaling Global Climate Model (GCM) output are central to informing regional impact assessments and infrastructure planning. Regional GCM biases can be significant and, for dynamical downscaling, can be addressed either before (a priori) or after (a posteriori) downscaling. However, a priori bias correction (APBC) has generally unexplored effects on climate change signals. Here we analyze dynamically downscaled solutions of CMIP6 GCMs over the Western U.S., with and without APBC, and quantify APBC's impact on climate change signals relative to other irreducible uncertainty sources. For temperature and precipitation, the uncertainty introduced by APBC is negligible compared to that arising from GCM choice or internal variability. Furthermore, APBC greatly reduces regional models' unrealistically high snow‐water‐equivalent (SWE) biases that result directly from GCM errors. We leverage this finding to encourage the dynamical downscaling community to adopt APBC as a standard operating procedure.

Risser, Mark D.↗

Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. Each has benefited from 3-dimensional analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive and complete understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features. Recent efforts have been undertaken to update the LDIS through the formal tasking process of NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit. The goals include upgrading LDIS with the latest version of ADAS, incorporating new sources of observational data, and making adjustments to shell scripts written to govern the system. A series of scripts run a complete modeling system consisting of the preprocessing step, the main model integration, and the post-processing step. The preprocessing step prepares the terrain, surface characteristics data sets, and the objective analysis for model initialization. Data ingested through ADAS include (but are not limited to) Level II Weather Surveillance Radar- 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from six Florida radars, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) visible and infrared satellite imagery, surface and upper air observations throughout Florida from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division/Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS), as well as the Kennedy Space Center ICape Canaveral Air Force Station wind tower network. The scripts provide NWS MLB and SMG with several options for setting a desirable runtime configuration of the LDIS to account for adjustments in grid spacing, domain location, choice of observational data sources, and selection of background model fields, among others. The utility of an improved LDIS will be demonstrated through postanalysis warm and cool season case studies that compare high-resolution model output with and without the ADAS analyses. Operationally, these upgrades will result in more accurate depictions of the current local environment to help with short-range weather forecasting applications, while also offering an improved initialization for local versions of the Weather Research and Forecasting model.

Watson, Leela R.↗

Kinetics of the Reactions of Cl((sup 2)P(sub J)) and Br((sup 2)P(sub 3/2)) with O3

A laser flash photolysis-resonance fluorescence technique has been employed to study the kinetics of the important stratospheric reactions Cl((sup 2)P(sub J)) + O3 yields ClO + O2 and Br((sup 2)P(sub 3/2)) + O3 yields BrO + O2 as a function of temperature. The temperature dependence observed for the Cl((sup 2)P(sub J)) + O3 reaction is nonArrhenius, but can be adequately described by the following two Arrhenius expressions (units are cu cm/(molecule.s), errors are 2 sigma and represent precision only): k(sub 1)(T) = (1.19 +/- 0.21) x 10(exp -11) exp[(-33 +/- 37)/T] for T = 189-269 K and k(sub 1)(T) = (2.49 +/- 0.38) x 10(exp -11) exp[(-233 +/- 46)/T] for 269-385 K. At temperatures below 230 K, the rate coefficients determined in this study are faster than any reported previously. Incorporation of our values for k(sub 1)(T) into stratospheric models would increase calculated ClO levels and decrease calculated HCI levels; hence the calculated efficiency of ClO catalyzed ozone destruction would increase. The temperature dependence observed for the Br((sup 2)P(sub 3/2)) + O3 reaction is adequately described by the following Arrhenius expression (units are cu cm/(molecule.s), errors are 2 sigma and represent precision only): k(sub 2)(T) = (1.50 +/- 0.16) x 10(exp -11)exp[(-775 +/- 30)/T for 195-392 K. While not in quantitative agreement with Arrhenius parameters reported in most previous studies, our results almost exactly reproduce the average of all earlier studies and therefore will not affect the choice of k(sub 2)(T) for use in modeling stratospheric BrO2 chemistry.

Nicovich, J. M.↗

Automatic control algorithm effects on energy production

A computer model was developed using actual wind time series and turbine performance data to simulate the power produced by the Sandia 17-m VAWT operating in automatic control. The model was used to investigate the influence of starting algorithms on annual energy production. The results indicate that, depending on turbine and local wind characteristics, a bad choice of a control algorithm can significantly reduce overall energy production. The model can be used to select control algorithms and threshold parameters that maximize long term energy production. The results from local site and turbine characteristics were generalized to obtain general guidelines for control algorithm design.

Mcnerney, G. M.↗

As Investigation at Mach Numbers of 1.41 and 2.01 of the Aerodynamic Characteristics of an 0.025-scale Model of the MX-1712

An investigation of the aerodynamic characteristics of an 0.025-scale model of the MX-1712 configuration has been conducted in the Langley 4- by 4-foot supersonic pressure tunnel. The tests were performed at Mach numbers of 1.41 and 2.01 at a Reynolds number of approximately 2.6 x 10(exp 6) based on the wing mean aerodynamic chord The MX-1712 is a proposed swept-wing, jet-powered supersonic bomber aircraft. The wing is of aspect ratio 3.5, taper ratio 0.2, and thickness ratio 5.5 percent (streamwise) and has 47deg sweep of the quarter-chord line. The longitudinal and lateral force characteristics of the model and various combinations of its components, including several nacelle installations, were investigated. The effects of a modified wing, two horizontal tail positions, and a shortened fuselage were also studied. The results obtained from these investigations are presented in this report. The aerodynamic investigation of this model disclosed no unusual stability characteristics or Mach number effects. The choice of nacelle installations appears to be a major decision, one greatly affecting the performance of the airplane, At M = 1.41 and C(sub L) = 0.1, the buried nacelles increased the drag of the basic model by 9 percent, while the best pod nacelles increased the drag of the basic model by 27 percent.

Smith, Norman F.↗

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project: Phase I Activities by a Global Community of Science

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) was founded in 2010. Its mission is to improve substantially the characterization of world food security as affected by climate variability and change, and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. The objectives of AgMIP are to: Incorporate state-of-the-art climate, crop/livestock, and agricultural economic model improvements into coordinated multi-model regional and global assessments of future climate impacts and adaptation and other key aspects of the food system. Utilize multiple models, scenarios, locations, crops/livestock, and participants to explore uncertainty and the impact of data and methodological choices. Collaborate with regional experts in agronomy, animal sciences, economics, and climate to build a strong basis for model applications, addressing key climate related questions and sustainable intensification farming systems. Improve scientific and adaptive capacity in modeling for major agricultural regions in the developing and developed world, with a focus on vulnerable regions. Improve agricultural data and enhance data-sharing based on their intercomparison and evaluation using best scientific practices. Develop modeling frameworks to identify and evaluate promising adaptation technologies and policies and to prioritize strategies.

farm crops↗

Efficient Computation of Separation-Compliant Speed Advisories for Air Traffic Arriving in Terminal Airspace

A class of problems in air traffic management asks for a scheduling algorithm that supplies the air traffic services authority not only with a schedule of arrivals and departures, but also with speed advisories. Since advisories must be finite, a scheduling algorithm must ultimately produce a finite data set, hence must either start with a purely discrete model or involve a discretization of a continuous one. The former choice, often preferred for intuitive clarity, naturally leads to mixed-integer programs, hindering proofs of correctness and computational cost bounds (crucial for real-time operations). In this paper, a hybrid control system is used to model air traffic scheduling, capturing both the discrete and continuous aspects. This framework is applied to a class of problems, called the Fully Routed Nominal Problem. We prove a number of geometric results on feasible schedules and use these results to formulate an algorithm that attempts to compute a collective speed advisory, effectively finite, and has computational cost polynomial in the number of aircraft. This work is a first step toward optimization and models refined with more realistic detail.

Sadovsky, Alexander V.↗

Classical Benchmarks for Variational Quantum Eigensolver Simulations of the Hubbard Model

Simulating the Hubbard model is of great interest to a wide range of applications within condensed matter physics, however its solution on classical computers remains challenging in dimensions larger than one. The relative simplicity of this model, embodied by the sparseness of the Hamiltonian matrix, allows for its efficient implementation on quantum computers, and for its approximate solution using variational algorithms such as the variational quantum eigensolver. While these algorithms have been shown to reproduce the qualitative features of the Hubbard model, their quantitative accuracy in terms of producing true ground state energies and other properties, and the dependence of this accuracy on the system size and interaction strength, the choice of variational ansatz, and the degree of spatial inhomogeneity in the model, remains unknown. Here we present a rigorous classical benchmarking study, demonstrating the potential impact of these factors on the accuracy of the variational solution of the Hubbard model on quantum hardware, for systems with up to 32 qubits. We find that even when using the most accurate wavefunction ansätze for the Hubbard model, the error in its ground state energy and wavefunction plateaus for larger lattices, while stronger electronic correlations magnify this issue. Concurrently, spatially inhomogeneous parameters and the presence of off-site Coulomb interactions only have a small effect on the accuracy of the computed ground state energies. Our study highlights the capabilities and limitations of current approaches for solving the Hubbard model on quantum hardware, and we discuss potential future avenues of research.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Reducing the non-axisymmetry of a planetary dynamo and an application to Saturn

A simple model for the tendency toward axisymmetrization observed in planets is developed. The model is presented in general but linear form, assuming that the differentially rotating fluid is thin, which means that Lorentz forces or Ohmic dissipation are neglected. Two cases are considered: uniform shear throughout the shell and shear concentrated within a very thin boundary layer. In each case, explicit expressions are obtained for the spatial attenuation of the non-spin-axisymmetric field components. The substantial nonlinear effects which prevent these results from being directly applicable to planets are discussed, with particular emphasis on the Taylor constraint. The model is applied to Saturn and found to give a satisfactory semiquantitative explanation for the near-axisymmetry of the field. The parameter choices required to reproduce the observed tilt are entirely reasonable and potentially testable. The model explains why Jupiter and Saturn are so different.

Stevenson, D. J.↗