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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Impacts of the North Atlantic Warming Hole in Future Climate Projections: Mean Atmospheric Circulation and the North Atlantic Jet

In future climate simulations there is a pronounced region of reduced warming in the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic Ocean known as the North Atlantic warming hole (NAWH). This study investigates the impact of the North Atlantic warming hole on atmospheric circulation and midlatitude jets within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Specifically, a series of large-ensemble atmospheric model experiments with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice are conducted, in which the warming hole is either filled or deepened. Two mechanisms through which the NAWH impacts the atmosphere are identified: a linear response characterized by a shallow atmospheric cooling and increase in sea level pressure shifted slightly downstream of the SST changes, and a transient eddy forced response whereby the enhanced SST gradient produced by the NAWH leads to increased transient eddy activity that propagates vertically and enhances the midlatitude jet. The relative contributions of these two mechanisms and the details of the response are strongly dependent on the season, time period, and warming hole strength. Our results indicate that the NAWH plays an important role in midlatitude atmospheric circulation changes in CESM future climate simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Application of artificial intelligence methods in the international roughness index prediction of rigid and composite pavements: a systematic review

The International Roughness Index (IRI) is a widely adopted metric for quantifying pavement roughness, directly influencing vehicle safety, ride comfort, and overall roadway performance. In recent years, the use of Machine Learning (ML) models for IRI prediction has gained momentum, with the goal of improving the allocation of maintenance and rehabilitation resources by enabling accurate assessments of pavement conditions. Most prior reviews, however, have concentrated on flexible pavements, leaving a notable gap regarding rigid and composite pavements. To address this gap, the present study conducts a systematic review of Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods applied to IRI prediction for rigid and composite pavements. Literature published between 2004 and 2025 is synthesized to highlight prevailing trends, methodological contributions, and directions for future research. Particular attention is given to the types of models employed, the datasets used for training and validation, and the role of input variables and data-processing strategies. Across the included studies, ensemble learning methods (especially gradient boosting variants such as XGBoost), artificial neural networks, and hybrid architectures frequently achieved high predictive skill, with several models reporting test-set coefficients of determination approaching 0.9–0.96, indicating strong potential for capturing the influence of traffic, pavement structure, and climatic factors. Since these results are obtained from heterogeneous datasets and evaluation protocols, they are interpreted qualitatively rather than as strict cross-study rankings. Analysis of input variables revealed that pavement age and initial IRI were included in 91% (21 of 23) and 78% (18 of 23) of studies, respectively. Climatic variables such as the freezing index appeared in 57% (13 of 23), while traffic-related factors were considered in 65% (15 of 23). The findings underscore the importance of standardized, high-quality datasets, such as those from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) program, along with data consistency, model interpretability, computational efficiency, and replicability in enhancing IRI prediction. Future research should focus on incorporating input variable selection techniques to identify the most influential predictors, thereby improving accuracy and robustness. Integrating these approaches with advanced non-linear data-driven models, coupled with robust hyperparameter optimization, holds considerable promise for strengthening the reliability of IRI prediction and supporting resilient pavement management strategies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Consequences of Altered Root Nutrient Uptake for Soil Carbon Stabilization (Final Report)

Objectives: The primary objectives of this project are to improve our understanding of tropical forest belowground processes, and to increase representation of this biome in ecosystem-scale and global C cycle models. Belowground dynamics present a major source of uncertainty inhibiting our ability to predict C cycle responses to climate change. Representation of tropical forests in these models is particularly lacking, even though these ecosystems hold >25% of terrestrial C stocks. While the majority of humid tropical forests exist on relatively infertile soils (i.e. poor in rock-derived nutrients), enormous gradients in soil nutrient availability exist at landscape-scales due to shifts in geology and soil order. Soil fertility is likely to greatly influence how tropical soil C storage will respond to the declines in precipitation predicted for the tropics. In particular, root dynamics vary across soil fertility gradients, with roots representing the major input of C to subsurface soils. Root characteristics related to soil fertility include biomass, turnover, C exudates, tissue chemistry, and nutrient uptake rates, with each of these likely sensitive to changes in moisture. The proposed project will fully integrate field research with an existing ecosystem model to assess potential effects of drying on belowground tropical C dynamics across a range of soil fertilities. Project Description:. This project will identify key linkages among soil fertility, root nutrient uptake, root dynamics, and soil C storage. The hypothesized framework for understanding these linkages is: Tropical rainforest roots in relatively fertile soils have lesser root biomass, faster turnover, fewer exudates, and improved root tissue quality relative to infertile sites, all resulting from increased root nutrient uptake. Ultimately, these root characteristics in fertile soils promote proportionally greater long-term soil C storage in organo-mineral associations. Specifically, lower root exudates and improved root tissue quality in fertile soils reduce microbial respiration of extant soil C (i.e. “priming) and increase microbial C use efficiency, leading to sorption of protein-rich microbial and plant organic matter on soil mineral surfaces. However, the larger pools of mineral-associated C in fertile tropical soils are more vulnerable to decreased rainfall than smaller C pools in infertile soils, in part because of the lesser root biomass, faster turnover, and softer, more labile root tissues. Also, the shallower lateral rooting structures typical in fertile soils experience greater desiccation and death than deeper roots in infertile sites, with little short-term adaptation to drying.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Intraspecific Trait Variation and Phenotypic Plasticity Mediate Alpine Plant Species Response to Climate Change

In a rapidly changing climate, alpine plants may persist by adapting to new conditions. However, the rate at which the climate is changing might exceed the rate of adaptation through evolutionary processes in long-lived plants. Persistence may depend on phenotypic plasticity in morphology and physiology. Here we investigated patterns of leaf trait variation including leaf area, leaf thickness, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf nutrients (C, N, P) and isotopes (δ 13C and δ 15N) across an elevation gradient on Gongga Mountain, Sichuan Province, China. We quantified inter- and intra-specific trait variation and the plasticity in leaf traits of selected species to experimental warming and cooling by using a reciprocal transplantation approach. We found substantial phenotypic plasticity in most functional traits where δ 15N, leaf area, and leaf P showed greatest plasticity. These traits did not correspond with traits with the largest amount of intraspecific variation. Plasticity in leaf functional traits tended to enable plant populations to shift their trait values toward the mean values of a transplanted plants’ destination community, but only if that population started with very different trait values. These results suggest that leaf trait plasticity is an important mechanism for enabling plants to persist within communities and to better tolerate changing environmental conditions under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trade-Offs of Simplified Versus Comprehensive Representation of Mineralogy When Studying Dust Impacts on Earth’s Climate Systems

The intensity and direction of dust impacts on Earth’s climate systems depend on mineral composition. For example, the presence or absence of a few percent of iron oxides in dust will determine if dust is warming or cooling the atmosphere. Similarly, feldspar will enhance ice cloud formation, while acid gases in the atmosphere will react on the surface of dust calcite limiting acid rain. Still, most climate models use a simplified representation of dust mineralogy. They assume a fixed composition at emission which stays invariant during transport and removal. Such simplification assumes spatially and temporally constant physical and chemical properties of dust, and appears to provide satisfactory results when comparing some properties with observations. The trade-off is their lack of spatial gradients, which will fail to induce circulation, cloud and precipitation changes. The two reasons to omit mineral variations are the uncertainty of current atlases of soil mineral composition in arid regions, and, more practically, an improved runtime efficiency. The former reason is losing ground with the recent launch (July 2022) of a dedicated mission (NASA/JPL EMIT) to retrieve global soil mineralogy of dust sources at high spatial resolution. While the EMIT science team is finalizing a satisfactory global map of mineral composition of dust sources, we analyzed the interaction of dust mineralogy on radiation and its impact on the fast temperature response using different representations of mineral composition from detailed and spatially varying to simplified and globally uniform, assuming different hematite contents and methods to calculate optical properties. Our results show that resolving dust mineralogy reduces dust absorption, and results in improved agreement with observation-based single scattering albedo (SSA), radiative fluxes from CERES (the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System), and land surface temperature from CRU (Climatic Research Unit), compared to the baseline bulk dust model version. It also results in distinct radiative impacts on Earth’s climate over North Africa. From our 19-year simulation, we will show that it leads to a reduction of over 50% in net downward radiation at top of atmosphere (TOA) across the Sahara and an approximately 20% reduction over the Sahel. We will explain how the surface temperature response affects the monsoon flow from the Gulf of Guinea. Interestingly, we find similar results by simply fixing the hematite content of dust to a globally uniform value of 0.9% by volume. We will discuss the underlying reasons for such results and show that they may be unrelated to the distribution of soil mineralogy. Still, an accurate representation of soil mineralogy is necessary to better understand dust impacts on the Earth’s climate systems.

dust impacts↗
DOE OSTI2021

Limited thermal acclimation of photosynthesis in tropical montane tree species

Abstract The temperature sensitivity of physiological processes and growth of tropical trees remains a key uncertainty in predicting how tropical forests will adjust to future climates. In particular, our knowledge regarding warming responses of photosynthesis, and its underlying biochemical mechanisms, is very limited. We grew seedlings of two tropical montane rainforest tree species, the early‐successional species Harungana montana and the late‐successional species Syzygium guineense , at three different sites along an elevation gradient, differing by 6.8℃ in daytime ambient air temperature. Their physiological and growth performance was investigated at each site. The optimum temperature of net photosynthesis ( T optA ) did not significantly increase in warm‐grown trees in either species. Similarly, the thermal optima ( T optV and T optJ ) and activation energies ( E aV and E aJ ) of maximum Rubisco carboxylation capacity ( V cmax ) and maximum electron transport rate ( J max ) were largely unaffected by warming. However, V cmax , J max and foliar dark respiration ( R d ) at 25℃ were significantly reduced by warming in both species, and this decline was partly associated with concomitant reduction in total leaf nitrogen content. The ratio of J max / V cmax decreased with increasing leaf temperature for both species, but the ratio at 25℃ was constant across sites. Furthermore, in H . montana , stomatal conductance at 25℃ remained constant across the different temperature treatments, while in S . guineense it increased with warming. Total dry biomass increased with warming in H . montana but remained constant in S . guineense . The biomass allocated to roots, stem and leaves was not affected by warming in H . montana , whereas the biomass allocated to roots significantly increased in S . guineense . Overall, our findings show that in these two tropical montane rainforest tree species, the capacity to acclimate the thermal optimum of photosynthesis is limited while warming‐induced reductions in respiration and photosynthetic capacity rates are tightly coupled and linked to responses of leaf nitrogen.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

From Grain to Floodplain: Evaluating heterogeneity of floodplain hydrostatigraphy using sedimentology, geophysics, and remote sensing

Stratigraphy is a fundamental component of floodplain heterogeneity and hydraulic conductivity and connectivity of alluvial aquifers, which affect hydrologic processes such as groundwater flow and hyporheic exchange. Watershed–scale hydrological models commonly simplify the sedimentology and stratigraphy of floodplains, neglecting natural floodplain heterogeneity and anisotropy. This study, conducted in the upper reach of the East River in the East River Basin, Colorado, USA, combines point–, meander–, and floodplain–scale data to determine key features of alluvial aquifers important for estimating hydrologic processes. We compare stratigraphy of two meanders with disparate geometries to explore floodplain heterogeneity and connectivity controls on flow and transport. Meander shape, orientation, and internal stratigraphy affected residence time estimates of laterally exchanged hyporheic water. Although the two meanders share a sediment source, vegetation, and climate, their divergent river migration histories resulted in contrasting meander hydrofacies. In turn, the extent and orientation of these elements controlled the effective hydraulic conductivity and, ultimately, estimates of groundwater transport and hyporheic residence times. Additionally, the meanders’ orientation relative to the valley gradient impacted the hydraulic gradient across the meanders—a key control of groundwater velocity. In conclusion, we combine our field data with remotely sensed data and introduce a potential approach to estimate key hydrostratigraphic packages across floodplains. Prospective applications include contaminant transport studies, hyporheic models, and watershed models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Future Projections of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific Mean State in CMIP6

Abstract The El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of tropical Pacific atmosphere‐ocean variability that drives teleconnections with weather and climate globally. However, prior studies using state‐of‐the‐art climate models lack consensus regarding future ENSO projections and are often impacted by tropical Pacific sea‐surface temperature (SST) biases. We used 173 simulations from 29 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 6 (CMIP6) to analyze model biases and future ENSO projections. We analyzed two ENSO indices, namely the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI), which measures zonal shifts in tropical Pacific deep convection and accounts for changes in background SST, and the Niño 3.4 index, which measures SST anomalies in the central‐eastern equatorial Pacific. We found that the warm eastern tropical‐subtropical Pacific SST bias typical of previous generations of climate models persists into many of the CMIP6 models. Future projections of ENSO shift toward more El Niño‐like conditions based on ELI in 48% of simulations and 55% of models, in association with a future weakening of the zonal equatorial Pacific SST gradient. On the other hand, none of the models project a significant shift toward La Niña‐like conditions. The standard deviation of the Niño 3.4 index indicates a lack of consensus on whether an increase or decrease in ENSO variability is expected in the future. Finally, we found a possible relationship between historical SST and low‐level cloud cover biases in the ENSO region and future changes in ELI; however, this result may be impacted by limitations in data availability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Organo-mineral interactions in active layer and permafrost soils along aging Arctic landscapes

Rising temperatures are accelerating permafrost thaw, exposing large soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks to microbial decomposition with implications for global climate. Understanding how permafrost carbon is stored and protected through associations with minerals is critical for predicting its vulnerability to decomposition upon thaw. However, how landscape age, substrate chemistry, and soil depth influence mineral associations remain relatively unexplored. We investigated organo-mineral associations in active layer and permafrost soils across a landscape age and geochemical gradient on Alaska’s North Slope, spanning three glaciated (~11,500–125,000 years) and one unglaciated site. Using selective dissolution extractions, X-ray diffraction, and Mössbauer spectroscopy, we characterized minerals and their relationship with SOC. The three recently deglaciated sites had low soil pH that decreased with age and greater abundances of pyrophosphate- and oxalate-extractable Al and Fe, whereas the oldest unglaciated site exhibited near-neutral pH, greater pyrophosphate-extractable Ca, and distinct mineralogy. Across sites, SOC was positively associated with Al and Fe mineral phases, with stronger relationships in acidic soils. Pyrophosphate-extractable Ca also showed strong relationships with SOC at the acidic sites (up to ~10x greater), suggesting that Ca-mediated protection may operate beyond traditionally recognized high-pH soils. Permafrost soils showed depth-related changes in pH, SOC, and Fe mineralogy, suggesting chemically active, heterogeneous layers may shape mineral dynamics and associated carbon. Our results highlight how landscape age, parent material, and depth create distinct geochemical environments that govern mineral-organic associations. As thaw exposes soil to new conditions, these mineral-mediated protection mechanisms may be altered, potentially affecting the permafrost carbon-climate feedback.

Synthetic Biology↗
DOE OSTI2023

What controls the interannual variation of Hadley cell extent in the Northern Hemisphere: physical mechanism and empirical model for edge variation

Abstract The Hadley circulation is the most prominent atmospheric meridional circulation, reducing the radiatively driven equator-to-pole temperature gradient. While the Hadley cell extent varies by several degrees from year to year, the detailed dynamical mechanisms behind such variations have not been well elucidated. During the expanded phase of the Hadley cell, many regions on the periphery of the subtropics experience unfavorable climatic conditions. In this study, using ERA5 reanalysis data, we examine the physical chain of events responsible for the interannual variation of the Hadley cell edge (HCE) latitude in the Northern Hemisphere. This variation is mainly caused by changing eddy activity and wave breaking from both stationary and transient waves. In particular, we show that transient waves cause the HCE to shift poleward by increasing the eddy momentum flux divergence (EMFD) and reducing the baroclinicity over 20°–40°N, shifting the region of peak baroclinicity poleward. El Niño/La Niña and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) account for a significant portion (60%) of the interannual fluctuation of the HCE latitude. Through the poleward displacement of eddy activity, La Niña and a positive AO state are associated with the poleward shift of the HCE. The analysis of 28 CMIP5 models reveals statistical relationships between EMFD, vertical shear, and HCE latitude similar to those observed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projected changes in African easterly wave activity due to climate change

African easterly waves significantly influence regional hydroclimate, making it crucial to understand how global warming will impact their activity. Here, we investigate future changes in wave activity and assess the underlying mechanisms using an ensemble of Earth system models. We find a robust increase in wave activity over the Sahel–Sahara region by the end of the 21st century under two emission scenarios. This intensification is linked to increased baroclinicity associated with a strengthening of the meridional temperature gradient between the Guinea Coast and the Sahara. Our results also indicate that low-level warming enhances the waves by reinforcing monsoon flow, leading to increased convergence and vertical motion along the intertropical discontinuity. These energetic alterations significantly modify the conditions that currently produce these waves. Overall, our findings suggest that changes in wave activity could impact the transport of Saharan dust and mesoscale convective activity over the Sahel.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast—Part 2: Circulation, Boundary Layer, and Clouds

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) is a complex land-ocean-atmosphere system that experiences a wide range of atmospheric phenomena, which in turn drive unique aerosol transport pathways, cloud morphologies, and boundary layer variability. This work, Part 2 of a 2-part paper series, provides an overview of the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three-dimensional cloud structure, and precipitation over the WNAO; the companion paper (Part 1) focused on chemical characterization of aerosol, gas, and wet deposition. Seasonal changes in the circulation and sea surface temperature explain a clear transition in cloud morphologies from small shallow cumulus clouds, convective clouds, and tropical storms in summer, to stratus/stratocumulus and multi-layer cloud systems associated with winter storms. Synoptic variability in cloud fields is estimated using satellite-based weather states, and the role of postfrontal conditions (cold-air outbreaks) in the development of stratiform clouds is further analyzed. Precipitation is persistent over the ocean, with a regional peak over the Gulf Stream path, where offshore sea surface temperature gradients are large and surface fluxes reach a regional peak. Satellite data show a clear annual cycle in cloud droplet number concentration along the coast in winter, and minima in summer, suggesting a marked annual cycle in aerosol-cloud interactions. The performance of four climate models are assessed against satellite cloud retrievals. The models qualitatively reproduce the annual cycle in cloud cover and liquid water path, but with large discrepancies across models, especially in the extra-tropics. The paper concludes with a summary of outstanding issues and recommendations for future work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Final Technical Report for Department of Energy Award DE-SC0010857, “Towards parameterization of root-rock hydrologic interactions in the Earth System Model”

The goal of the project is to understand how plants survive droughts, as the decimation of transpiration could shift the surface energy balance from latent heat to sensible heat, leading to warming of the lower atmosphere and amplification of drought. The hypothesis we investigated is that there is a store of moisture in the weathered bedrock below the organic soil mantle, so that plants that have roots deep enough to access this moisture reservoir could survive drought. We developed a new stochastic parameterization of hydraulic conductivity that introduces heterogeneity into the traditional formulation and captures the preferential flow through the weathered bedrock (Vrettas and Fung, 2015). With the new parameterization in the Richards equation, we succeeded in reproducing the fluctuations of the water table in seven well locations over six years. We also and carried out a series of model experiments that explore how subsurface properties impact evapotranspiration (ET) in a Mediterranean climate where a significant portion of ET is observed to take place in the dry and sunny summer when the precipitation is insufficient to meet the demand. Our results show that hydraulic redistribution is important for sustaining ET in the dry seasons when the vertical gradient in water potential is large. The results highlight the importance of lithology, species composition and root function for ET, especially under dry conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

An analytic study of the Charney problem on the sphere

An analytic study of the Charney (1947) problem is presented, in which a shortwave approximation and a two-scale assumption are adopted to derive approximate solutions for the problem. The solutions contain a second-order turning point whose location is important in determining the properties of baroclinic unstable waves. This turning point is located at the maximum of the meridional temperature gradient. The solutions indicate a close relation between baroclinic instability on the sphere and on a Beta-plane. The solutions have some limitations and are not valid for long waves. It is suggested that the solutions have implications for parameterizations of eddy fluxes in climate modeling.

Lee, Yung-An↗
NASA NTRS1996

A Revised Thermosphere for the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM Version 3.4)

This report describes the newly-revised model thermosphere for the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM, Version 3.4). It also provides descriptions of other changes made to the program since publication of the programmer's guide for Mars-GRAM Version 3.34. The original Mars-GRAM model thermosphere was based on the global-mean model of Stewart. The revised thermosphere is based largely on parameterizations derived from output data from the three-dimensional Mars Thermospheric Global Circulation Model (MTGCM). The new thermospheric model includes revised dependence on the 10.7 cm solar flux for the global means of exospheric temperature, temperature of the base of the thermosphere, and scale height for the thermospheric temperature variations, as well as revised dependence on orbital position for global mean height of the base of the thermosphere. Other features of the new thermospheric model are: (1) realistic variations of temperature and density with latitude and time of day, (2) more realistic wind magnitudes, based on improved estimates of horizontal pressure gradients, and (3) allowance for user-input adjustments to the model values for mean exospheric temperature and for height and temperature at the base of the thermosphere. Other new features of Mars-GRAM 3.4 include: (1) allowance for user-input values of climatic adjustment factors for temperature profiles from the surface to 75 km, and (2) a revised method for computing the sub-solar longitude position in the 'ORBIT' subroutine.

Justus, C. G.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases

Black carbon (BC) aerosols emitted from natural and anthropogenic sources induce positive radiative forcing and global warming, which in turn significantly affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, many aspects of the BC effect on the ASM remain elusive and largely inconsistent among previous studies, which is strongly dependent on different low-level thermal feedbacks over the Asian continent and the surrounding ocean. This study examines the response of the ASM to BC forcing in comparison with the effect of doubled greenhouse gases (GHGs) by analyzing the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) simulations under an extremely high BC level (10 times modern global BC emissions or concentrations, labeled BC×10) from nine global climate models (GCMs). The results show that although BC and GHGs both enhance the ASM precipitation minus evaporation (P–E; a 13.6 % increase for BC forcing and 12.1 % for GHGs from the nine-model ensemble, respectively), there exists a much larger uncertainty in changes in ASM P–E induced by BC than by GHGs. The summer P–E is increased by 7.7 % to 15.3 % due to these two forcings over three subregions, including East Asian, South Asian and western North Pacific monsoon regions. Further analysis of moisture budget reveals distinct mechanisms controlling the increases in ASM P–E induced by BC and GHGs. The change in ASM P–E by BC is dominated by the dynamic effect due to the enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation, whereas the GHG-induced change is dominated by the thermodynamic effect through increasing atmospheric water vapor. Radiative forcing of BC significantly increases the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region to enhance the upper-level meridional land–sea thermal gradient (MLOTG), resulting in a northward shift of the upper-level subtropical westerly jet and an enhancement of the low-level monsoon circulation, whereas radiative forcing of GHGs significantly increases the tropical upper-level temperature, which reduces the upper-level MLOTG and suppresses the low-level monsoonal circulation. Hence, our results indicate a different mechanism of BC climate effects under the extremely high BC level: that BC forcing significantly enhances the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region, determining ASM changes, instead of low-level thermal feedbacks as indicated by previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases

Black carbon (BC) aerosols emitted from natural and anthropogenic sources induce positive radiative forcing and global warming, which in turn significantly affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, many aspects of the BC effect on ASM remain elusive and largely inconsistent among previous studies, which is strongly dependent on different low-level thermal feedbacks over the Asian continent and the surrounding ocean. This study examines the response of ASM to BC forcing in comparison with the effect of doubled greenhouse gases (GHGs) by analyzing the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) simulations under an extreme high BC level (10 times modern global BC emissions or concentrations, labeled by BC $\times$ 10) from nine global climate models (GCMs). The results show that although BC and GHGs both enhance the ASM precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) (a 13.6 % increase for BC forcing and 12.1 % for GHGs from the nine-model ensemble, respectively), there exists a much larger uncertainty in changes in ASM P–E induced by BC than by GHGs. The summer P–E is increased by 7.7 % to 15.3 % due to these two forcings over three sub-regions including East Asian, South Asian, and western North Pacific monsoon regions. Further analysis of moisture budget reveals distinct mechanisms controlling the increases in ASM P–E induced by BC and GHGs. The change in ASM P–E by BC is dominated by the dynamic effect due to the enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation, whereas the GHG-induced change is dominated by the thermodynamic effect through increasing atmospheric water vapor. Radiative forcing of BC significantly increases the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region to enhance the upper-level meridional land-sea thermal gradient (MLOTG), resulting in a northward shift of the upper-level subtropical westerly jet and an enhancement of the low-level monsoon circulation; whereas radiative forcing of GHGs significantly increases the tropical upper-level temperature, which reduces the upper-level MLOTG and suppresses the low-level monsoonal circulation. Hence, our results indicate a different mechanism of BC climate effects under the extreme high BC level, that BC forcing significantly enhances the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region, determining ASM changes, instead of low-level thermal feedbacks as indicated by previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

ENSO Dynamics in the E3SM-1-0, CESM2, and GFDL-CM4 Climate Models

We report that this study examines historical simulations of ENSO in the E3SM-1-0, CESM2, and GFDL-CM4 climate models, provided by three leading U.S. modeling centers as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). These new models have made substantial progress in simulating ENSO’s key features, including: amplitude; timescale; spatial patterns; phase-locking; spring persistence barrier; and recharge oscillator dynamics. However, some important features of ENSO are still a challenge to simulate. In the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the models’ weaker-than-observed subsurface zonal current anomalies and zonal temperature gradient anomalies serve to weaken the nonlinear zonal advection of subsurface temperatures, leading to insufficient warm/cold asymmetry of ENSO’s sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). In the western equatorial Pacific, the models’ excessive simulated zonal SST gradients amplify their zonal temperature advection, causing their SSTA to extend farther west than observed. The models underestimate both ENSO’s positive dynamic feedbacks (due to insufficient zonal wind stress responses to SSTA) and its thermodynamic damping (due to insufficient convective cloud shading of eastern Pacific SSTA during warm events); compensation between these biases leads to realistic linear growth rates for ENSO, but for somewhat unrealistic reasons. The models also exhibit stronger-than-observed feedbacks onto eastern equatorial Pacific SSTAs from thermocline depth anomalies, which accelerates the transitions between events and shortens the simulated ENSO period relative to observations. Implications for diagnosing and simulating ENSO in climate models are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗