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DOE OSTI2023

A Scalable Transmission and Distribution Co-simulation Platform for IBR-heavy Power Systems

The integration of Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs) into power systems, including both transmission and distribution networks, poses challenges for studying grid dynamic behaviours under various operating conditions and system events. This paper addresses the urgent need to investigate the influence of IBRs on grid dynamics, and their potential to enhance power system reliability and resilience. We propose a flexible, scalable transmission and distribution co-simulation platform, using opensource tools only for assessing the impact of grid-following (GFL) and grid-forming (GFM) IBRs on dynamic stability at various renewable penetration levels (up to 100%). This platform enables researchers to explore different contingencies at transmission, distribution, or both, providing a comprehensive evaluation of grid status. A series of case studies, including both small and large T&D systems with varying GFL/GFM configurations and contingencies, have been conducted. The results not only robustly validate our co-simulation framework, but also provide invaluable insights for effective IBR management in the power grid.

grid management↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating Protection System Performance for a Real-World Weak Grid Area With High Inverter-Based Resources: Preprint

This paper evaluates an existing protection scheme implemented in a real-world weak grid area with a high penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs). The study aims to assess the reliability and adequacy of protection schemes originally designed for traditional synchronous machine systems and determine whether they can continue to operate reliably in systems with high levels of IBRs. Hardware relays are tested using a controller-hardware-in-the-loop setup. PSCAD electromagnetic transient simulation with an IBR original equipment manufacturer black-box model is used to perform fault studies and generate COMTRADE data, which are replayed by a real-time digital simulator (RTDS) to feed input to the hardware relays. Three scenarios are analyzed: normal operation, an N-1 contingency, and an IBR-only scenario. The evaluation results reveal the following: 1) the protection scheme remains reliable under normal conditions and N-1 contingencies and 2) in IBR-only scenarios, differential protection (87L) continues to operate reliably, whereas local protection elements, such as distance and directional elements, fail because of the lack of regulated negative sequence current contributed by IBRs. These findings provide utilities with valuable insights for improving their protection systems in high-IBRs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impact of climate change on adaptive management decisions in the face of water scarcity

Reoccurring drought through the early 2000s has caused a serious water scarcity issue in the Colorado River Basin. Previous modeling studies have focused on the impact of climate change without considering the adaptive behaviors of farmers and under-utilized Indian water rights. Here, we use a coupled agent-based water resource model (ABM) to investigate how the adaptive decisions of farmers can affect water resource management under both climate change impacts and fully utilized Indian water right conditions. We used five General Circulation Model projections with RCP8.5 scenarios for the study. The results of farm-level decision-making showed different responses in irrigated areas that were changing due to climate change impact. While winter precipitation changes might partially explain the behavior changes, no specific pattern could be concluded based on their location. Also, farmers’ responses about annual water diversion showed more significant inter-year variation compared to irrigated areas. Basin-level metrics showed that climate change impacts will generally worsen water scarcity issues as measured in Navajo Reservoir storage, flow to Lake Powell, and instream flow requirement. But these basin-level water scarcity metrics cannot reflect individual farm-level impacts under climate change, which is why modeling the bottom-up management actions is necessary. When the under-utilized Indian water rights are fully used, it is more likely to trigger the shortage sharing agreement due to the higher tribal water depletion. Evaluation of model uncertainty and a more realistic setup for adaptive actions under drought contingency plans are suggested for future research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Quantifying Transmission Fault Voltage Influence and its Potential Impact on Distributed Energy Resources

With increasing shares of distributed energy resources (DERs) on the electric grid, the power system is transitioning from having fewer large generators with relatively simple dynamics to many small generators with aggregate responses to system disturbances that are difficult to predict. In particular, voltage fluctuations might cause large losses of generation via DER operation/interconnection compliance. To understand orchestral DER dynamics, a first step is to determine the influence of a disturbance on the overall bulk power system. This work introduces metrics that allow for the classification and comparison of a variety of system faults with respect to their influences on voltage profiles. These metrics are applied to standardized fault simulations on the Western Interconnection Paths with a full-scale Positive Sequence Load Flow model. The results are presented with a highlight on Path 61, which has the potential for DER generation reduction exceeding the current credible contingency of a double Palo Verde loss.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data Privacy for the Grid: Toward a Data Privacy Standard for Inverter-Based and Distributed Energy Resources

The traditional approach to planning the distribution grid has focused on reliability in the context of gradual and reasonably predictable load growth. Forecasts of load growth, combined with asset management practices, were used by system planners to identify upgrades to the system to maintain or improve reliability. The decisions, typically based within load flow analysis tools, included considerations about contingency scenarios and corporate forecasts (i.e., top-down predictions at a summary level of what would happen in a particular area that could impact load growth and behavior). As a result, today, this traditional approach no longer fits all purposes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

How Can Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts Be Used to Lower Costs and Improve Reliability in Power Spot Markets? A Review and Application to Flexiramp Requirements

Net load uncertainty in electricity spot markets is rapidly growing. There are five general approaches by which system operators and market participants can use probabilistic forecasts of wind, solar, and load to help manage this uncertainty. These include operator situation awareness, resource risk hedging, reserves procurement, definition of contingencies, and explicit stochastic optimization. We review these approaches, and then provide a case study in which a method for using probabilistic solar forecasts to define needs for reserves is developed and evaluated. The case study has three parts. First, we describe building blocks for enhancing the Watt-Sun solar forecasting system to produce probabilistic irradiance and power forecasts. Second, relationships between Watt-Sun forecasts for multiple sites in California and the system's need for flexible ramp capability (flexiramp) are defined by machine learning and statistical methods. Third, the performance of present methods to defining flexiramp requirements, which are not conditioned on weather and renewables forecasts, is compared with that of probabilistic solar forecast-based requirements, using a multi-timescale production costing model with an 1820-bus representation of the WECC power system. Significant potential savings in fuel and flexiramp procurement costs from using solar-informed reserve requirements are found.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Representation and Impact of Water Head on Power System Planning and Operation

Representing water head information in power system model files, can provide a more realistic model of the system and thereby inform operation and planning personnel in the decision-making process. This article describes a procedure for modifying the power system model files (steady-state and dynamic) to represent water head information. Additionally, the impact of representing the water head on power system reliability studies including contingency analysis, cascading failure analysis and dynamic frequency response analysis has been investigated, using the modified power system models. This paper considers the detailed Western Electricity Coordination Council model during summer and winter conditions as the test system for the impact analysis. Results show that under reduced water head: 1) the number of critical voltage and branch flow violations increases; 2) chances of cascading failure and island formation increases; and 3) frequency nadir decreases as compared to those of the base cases where the water head information is not represented.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Wildfire Risk Evaluation Framework for Grid Operations and Planning

The United States (US) environmental protection agency's (EPA's) climate change indicators for wildfires show a long-term trend of increased annual wildfire activity, larger wildfire size, and more variable dynamics in wildfire behavior. This has caused more frequent preemptive public safety power shutoff (PSPS) events in the regions with recognized high wildfire risk. These preemptive power shutoffs attempt to prevent the ignition of a wildfire but it nonetheless renders the transmission line non-operational, which often sheds load of downstream communities. As wildfires and PSPS events become more frequent, it is crucial to find the communities most at risk of load shedding. To that end, this paper proposes the wildfire risk evaluation of the system (WiRES) framework, which is a performance-based framework that translates extreme weather-related and PSPS event probabilities into a cumulative probability of a non-operational transmission line. This study also provides a geospatial visualization tool that breaks down the entire western electrical coordinating council (WECC) region into 50 km grid cells which can be used to 1) filter out transmission lines with higher than a threshold outage probability, and 2) graphically discover the affected regions and their biophysical and socioeconomic metrics. %such as the social vulnerability index, population density, gross domestic product, etc. Lastly, an impact assessment study is conducted which connects the results of the proposed framework to python and powerworld-based contingency analysis to highlight the applicability of the framework.

Wildfire, Resilience, Extreme Events, Grid Reslien↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems, e.g., emergency asset management. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000-bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. We perform statistical analysis of damages and discuss topological effects on the example synthetic grid. Also, we include a cursory evaluation of impacts using simplified operational models. Finally, we discuss how our method can be extended to use even higher-fidelity meteorological data sets and suggest directions for future work.

contingencies↗

DOE OSTI2016

How willing are landowners to supply land for bioenergy crops in the Northern Great Lakes Region?

Abstract Land to produce biomass is essential if the United States is to expand bioenergy supply. Use of agriculturally marginal land avoids the food vs. fuel problems of food price rises and carbon debt that are associated with crop and forestland. Recent remote sensing studies have identified large areas of US marginal land deemed suitable for bioenergy crops. Yet the sustainability benefits of growing bioenergy crops on marginal land only pertain if land is economically available. Scant attention has been paid to the willingness of landowners to supply land for bioenergy crops. Focusing on the northern tier of the Great Lakes, where grassland transitions to forest and land prices are low, this contingent valuation study reports on the willingness of a representative sample of 1124 private, noncorporate landowners to rent land for three bioenergy crops: corn, switchgrass, and poplar. Of the 11% of land that was agriculturally marginal, they were willing to make available no more than 21% for any bioenergy crop (switchgrass preferred on marginal land) at double the prevailing land rental rate in the region. At the same generous rental rate, of the 28% that is cropland, they would rent up to 23% for bioenergy crops (corn preferred), while of the 55% that is forestland, they would rent up to 15% for bioenergy crops (poplar preferred). Regression results identified deterrents to land rental for bioenergy purposes included appreciation of environmental amenities and concern about rental disamenities. In sum, like landowners in the southern Great Lakes region, landowners in the Northern Tier are reluctant to supply marginal land for bioenergy crops. If rental markets existed, they would rent more crop and forestland for bioenergy crops than they would marginal land, which would generate carbon debt and opportunity costs in wood product and food markets.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS2023

Pilots’ Perspectives on Urban Air Mobility Safety Challenges and Potential Solutions

As electric vertical takeoff and landing air taxis make their way to urban airspace operations within the United States National Airspace System, many research efforts are underway to identify and understand pertinent issues needed to support the influx of new, passenger-carrying, air vehicles over highly dense, urban communities. The primary focus of the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Pilot/Provider of Services for UAM Information Exchange and Contingency Airspace Management Procedures study was to gather subjective data from subject matter experts concerning current-day airspace operations to identify potential gaps and improvements needed to support and sustain near-term UAM operations. These potential gaps and improvements will form the foundation for the development of initial information exchange requirements between the on-board pilot in command and other key entities. This paper focuses on the in-flight incapacitated pilot scenario from Phase I of the study, which gathered data from helicopter and general aviation fixed-wing pilots.

Urban Air Mobility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pilots’ Perspectives on Urban Air Mobility Safety Challenges and Potential Solutions

Urban Air Mobility↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources: Preprint

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

contingencies↗

DOE OSTI2025

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Applications in Modern Power Systems

Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms offer valuable tools for the analysis and interpretation of large datasets. These tools have the capability to uncover insights that may not be readily apparent within these datasets. In recent years, the integration of ML and AI has become increasingly prevalent in various applications within the power system domain. One of the earliest instances of machine learning in power systems can be traced back to demand forecasting, where artificial neural networks were employed for short-term load forecasting. In contemporary power systems, an abundance of high-resolution geospatial and temporal data is generated at various time intervals, ranging from sub-seconds (Phasor Measurement Units or PMUs) to seconds (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition or SCADA), minutes (Process Information or PI), and extending to days, months, and years. These datasets contain valuable information concerning system reliability and performance. This information holds the potential to offer critical insights into system operations, as well as solutions for predicting and mitigating contingencies to prevent cascading outages. Despite the immense power of machine learning tools, system operators, planners, and utilities often exhibit hesitancy in fully embracing AI-enabled system operations and planning. This cautious approach persists, even as numerous diverse applications of machine learning continue to emerge in the realm of power systems. In this chapter, our focus will delve deep into ML and AI applications tailored for power systems. These applications aim to furnish system operators with enhanced situational awareness and augment their decision-making capabilities, especially during challenging operating conditions. Specific areas of interest encompass root cause analyses of electricity market datasets and the strategic selection of representative samples from vast power system databases for training ML/AI models. Finally, the chapter will conclude with a short discussion on the future of ML/AI in power systems and possible directions that the industry is moving towards.

power system applications, machine learning (ML), ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrating Emerging Polymer Chemistries for the Advancement of Recyclable, Biodegradable, and Biocompatible Electronics

Abstract Through advances in molecular design, understanding of processing parameters, and development of non‐traditional device fabrication techniques, the field of wearable and implantable skin‐inspired devices is rapidly growing interest in the consumer market. Like previous technological advances, economic growth and efficiency is anticipated, as these devices will enable an augmented level of interaction between humans and the environment. However, the parallel growing electronic waste that is yet to be addressed has already left an adverse impact on the environment and human health. Looking forward, it is imperative to develop both human‐ and environmentally‐friendly electronics, which are contingent on emerging recyclable, biodegradable, and biocompatible polymer technologies. This review provides definitions for recyclable, biodegradable, and biocompatible polymers based on reported literature, an overview of the analytical techniques used to characterize mechanical and chemical property changes, and standard policies for real‐life applications. Then, various strategies in designing the next‐generation of polymers to be recyclable, biodegradable, or biocompatible with enhanced functionalities relative to traditional or commercial polymers are discussed. Finally, electronics that exhibit an element of recyclability, biodegradability, or biocompatibility with new molecular design are highlighted with the anticipation of integrating emerging polymer chemistries into future electronic devices.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2017

Annual climate variation modifies nitrogen induced carbon accumulation of Pinus sylvestris forests

We report results from long-term simulated external nitrogen (N) input experiments in three northern Pinus sylvestris forests, two of moderately high and one of moderately low productivity, assessing effects on annual net primary production (NPP) of woody mass and its interannual variation in response to variability in weather conditions. A sigmoidal response of wood NPP to external N inputs was observed in the both higher and lower productivity stands, reaching a maximum of ~65% enhancement regardless of the native site productivity, saturating at an external N input of 4–5 g N·m -2 ·yr -1 . The rate of increase in wood NPP and the N response efficiency (REN, increase in wood NPP per external N input) were maximized at an external N input of ~3 g N·m -2 ·yr -1 , regardless of site productivity. The maximum REN was greater in the higher productivity than the lower productivity stand (~20 vs. ~14 g C/g N). The N-induced enhancement of wood NPP and its REN were, however, markedly contingent on climatic variables. In both of the higher and lower productivity stands, wood NPP increased with growing season precipitation (P), but only up to ~400 mm. The sensitivity of the response to P increased with increasing external N inputs. Increasing growing season temperature (T) somewhat increased the N-induced drought effect, whereas decreasing T reduced the drought effect. These responses of wood NPP infused a large temporal variation to REN, making the use of a fixed value unadvisable. Based on these results, we suggest that regional climate conditions and future climate scenarios should be considered when modeling carbon sequestration in response to N deposition in boreal P. sylvestris, and possibly other forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The impact of plant‐derived fire management prescriptions on fire‐responsive bird species

Abstract In fire‐prone regions, the occurrence of some faunal species is contingent on the presence of resources that arise through post‐fire plant succession. Through planned burning, managers can alter resource availability and aim to provide the conditions required to promote biodiversity. Understanding how species occurrence changes at different spatial and temporal scales after fire is essential to achieve this goal. However, many fire prescriptions are guided primarily by the responses of fire‐sensitive plants when setting tolerable fire intervals. This approach assumes that maintaining floristic diversity will satisfy the requirements of fauna. We surveyed bird species in two semi‐arid vegetation types across an environmental gradient in south‐eastern Australia. We conducted four surveys at each of 253 sites across a 75‐year chronosequence of time since fire and used generalized additive mixed models to examine changes in the occurrence of birds in response to time since fire. Model predictions were compared to plant‐derived fire prescriptions currently guiding fire management in the region. Time since fire was a significant predictor for 18 of 28 species modeled, in at least one vegetation type, over a gradient of 1.3° of latitude. We detected considerable variation in the responses of some species, both between vegetation types and geographically within a vegetation type. Our evaluation of plant‐derived fire prescriptions suggests that the intervals considered acceptable for maintaining floristic diversity may not be sustainable for populations of birds requiring longer unburnt vegetation, with 6 of the 12 species assessed attaining a mean occurrence probability of 20.3% by the minimum tolerable fire interval, and 57.3% by the maximum tolerable fire interval, in their respective vegetation types. Our findings highlight the potential vulnerability of fire‐responsive bird species if fire prescriptions are applied in a manner that fails to account for the slow development of habitat resources needed by some species, and the variation detected within the responses of species. This highlights the need for species‐specific data collected at an appropriate spatial scale to inform management plans.

Makdissi, Rhys↗

DOE OSTI2020

Past and present disturbances generate spatial variation in seed predation

Seed survival is a key process for plant populations; variation in the activity and abundance of animals that consume seeds can lead to dramatic shifts in seed fate. Because granivores may respond to contemporary disturbance as well as to enduring changes in habitats caused by past disturbances, understanding seed fate requires studies capable of evaluating how past and present disturbances modify granivore communities, foraging activity, and ultimately, seed predation. Historic agricultural land use and contemporary canopy harvesting are widespread disturbances that could generate large-scale patterns of seed fate by modifying environmental characteristics that determine granivore identity and behavior. Here, to evaluate whether land-use history and canopy harvesting affect seed–animal interactions, we conducted an experiment distributed across 80,000 ha of longleaf pine woodlands that coupled large-scale canopy harvesting at seven 4-ha sites containing both post-agricultural land use and nonagricultural land use in South Carolina, United States. We deployed a total of 28,000 nail-tagged seeds and recovered the tags to quantify seed fate. Past agricultural land use and contemporary canopy harvesting interacted to affect the rate of seed predation. Seed predation rates in harvested sites depended on land-use history: Seed predation was 30% lower in post-agricultural plots than in nonagricultural plots. This interaction was driven by the differential effect of land-use history and canopy harvesting on rodent activity. Camera traps revealed that Sigmodon hispidus only foraged in harvested plots and was most active in nonagricultural plots. In harvested plots, seed removal increased with S. hispidus activity. In unharvested plots, seed removal increased with Sciurus niger activity, but S. niger was not affected by land-use history. In finding that land-use history and canopy harvesting determine the outcomes of seed–animal interactions, we show that understanding patterns of seed predation is contingent upon the interplay of disturbances in both the distant past and recent past. These results suggest that patterns of past land use and present land use may help reconcile the considerable variation in seed fate observed in ecological communities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗