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At least 523 records · Page 29

Major Solar Eruptions and High-Energy Particle Events During Solar Cycle 24

We report on a study of all major solar eruptions that occurred on the frontside of the Sun during the rise to peak phase of cycle 24 (first 62 months) in order to understand the key factors affecting the occurrence of large solar energetic particle events (SEPs) and ground level enhancement (GLE) events. The eruptions involve major flares with soft X-ray peak flux greater than or equal to 5.0 x10(exp−5) Wm(exp−2) (i.e., flare size greater than or equal to M5.0) and accompanying coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The selection criterion was based on the fact that the only front-side GLE in cycle 24 (GLE 71) had a flare size of M5.1. Only approximately 37% of the major eruptions from the western hemisphere resulted in large SEP events. Almost the same number of large SEP events was produced in weaker eruptions (flare size less than M5.0), suggesting that the soft X-ray flare is not a good indicator of SEP or GLE events. On the other hand, the CME speed is a good indicator of SEP and GLE events because it is consistently high supporting the shock acceleration mechanism. We found the CME speed, magnetic connectivity to Earth (in longitude and latitude), and ambient conditions as the main factors that contribute to the lack of high-energy particle events during cycle 24. Several eruptions poorly connected to Earth (eastern-hemisphere or behind-the-west-limb events) resulted in very large SEP events detected by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft. Some very fast CMEs, likely to have accelerated particles to GeV energies, did not result in a GLE event because of poor latitudinal connectivity. The stringent latitudinal requirement suggests that the highest-energy particles are likely accelerated in the nose part of shocks, while the lower energy particles are accelerated at all parts. There were also well-connected fast CMEs, which did not seem to have accelerated high-energy particles due to possible unfavorable ambient conditions (high Alfven speed, overall reduction in acceleration efficiency in cycle 24).

Flares↗

Connecting Satellite Observations with Water Cycle Variables Through Land Data Assimilation: Examples Using the NASA GEOS-5 LDAS

A land data assimilation system (LDAS) can merge satellite observations (or retrievals) of land surface hydrological conditions, including soil moisture, snow, and terrestrial water storage (TWS), into a numerical model of land surface processes. In theory, the output from such a system is superior to estimates based on the observations or the model alone, thereby enhancing our ability to understand, monitor, and predict key elements of the terrestrial water cycle. In practice, however, satellite observations do not correspond directly to the water cycle variables of interest. The present paper addresses various aspects of this seeming mismatch using examples drawn from recent research with the ensemble-based NASA GEOS-5 LDAS. These aspects include (1) the assimilation of coarse-scale observations into higher-resolution land surface models, (2) the partitioning of satellite observations (such as TWS retrievals) into their constituent water cycle components, (3) the forward modeling of microwave brightness temperatures over land for radiance-based soil moisture and snow assimilation, and (4) the selection of the most relevant types of observations for the analysis of a specific water cycle variable that is not observed (such as root zone soil moisture). The solution to these challenges involves the careful construction of an observation operator that maps from the land surface model variables of interest to the space of the assimilated observations.

Land data assimilation↗

The Study of TeV Variability and the Duty Cycle of Mrk 421 from 3 Yr of Observations with the Milagro Observatory

TeV-flaring activity with timescales as short as tens of minutes and an orphan TeV flare have been observed from the blazar Markarian 421 (Mrk 421). The TeV emission from Mrk 421 is believed to be produced by leptonic synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) emission. In this scenario, correlations between the X-ray and the TeV fluxes are expected, TeV orphan flares are hardly explained, and the activity (measured as duty cycle) of the source at TeV energies is expected to be equal to or less than that observed in X-rays if only SSC is considered. To estimate the TeV duty cycle of Mrk 421 and to establish limits on its variability at different timescales, we continuously observed Mrk 421 with the Milagro observatory. Mrk 421 was detected by Milagro with a statistical significance of 7.1 standard deviations between 2005 September 21 and 2008 March 15. The observed spectrum is consistent with previous observations by VERITAS. We estimate the duty cycle of Mrk 421 for energies above 1 TeV for different hypotheses of the baseline flux and for different flare selections and we compared our results with the X-ray duty cycle estimated by Resconi et al. The robustness of the results is discussed.

observations↗

Helioseismic Observations of Torsional Oscillations Inside the Sun and Their Potential for Predicting Solar Cycles

The helioseismic analysis of torsional oscillations of the Sun, obtained in 1996-2018 from SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) and SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), reveals the spatio-temporal dynamics associated with the dynamo process. The data reveal new relationships between the migrating magnetic field patterns observed in synoptic magnetograms and the dynamics of torsional oscillations near the surface and in the interior. In particular, it is found that the evolution of torsional oscillations in the deep convection zone is ahead of the surface magnetic evolution by several years, and that it is related to the extended solar cycle phenomenon previously observed in the solar corona. The data show substantial differences in the torsional oscillation properties between Cycles 23 and 24 indicating fundamental changes in the dynamo regime, and also reveal initiation of Cycle 25. The helioseismology observations of the torsional oscillations open new perspectives for understanding the global dynamo processes inside the Sun, and for predicting the next solar cycle.

Oscillations↗

Impact of a Cold Pool Parameterization on the Diurnal Cycle and Intraseasonal Variability in the GEOS AGCM

A gradual transition from shallow to deep convection may be important both to the continental diurnal cycle of precipitation and to the tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, many existing convection parameterizations transition too readily, with corresponding diurnal and intraseasonal biases. High entrainment rates can be used to delay deep convection, but typically produce mean state biases; this is the "entrainment dilemma." Cold pools and sub-grid organization offer a potential solution to this dilemma, and recent work shows parameterized cold pools can effectively modulate deep convection, with improvements to the diurnal cycle and intraseasonal variability. Here we investigate the effects of a simple prognostic cold pool scheme coupled to the Grell-Freitas convection parameterization, in a set of global simulations with the NASA GEOS model. Air detrained from parameterized downdrafts is maintained in vertically resolved cold pools, which evolve with simplified dynamics. We test several options for cold pool feedbacks on convection, including modifications to deep convective entrainment rates, convective source air properties, and thermodynamic profiles, based on the level of cold pool activity. Cold pool impacts on the diurnal cycle are evaluated against TRMM, and moisture and moist static energy budgets are used to understand changes in tropical intraseasonal variability. Preliminary results show delays in the diurnal cycle of precipitation.

Arnold, Nathan↗

Solar Array (Radiated/Non-Radiated): Materials Characterization and Cryogenic Thermal Cycling Qualification for the Planned Europa Clipper Mission (ECM)

Two special instruments were custom built for our critical study and manufactured and employed to test the SA materials of interest to cryogenic temperature conditions. We have procured custom manufactured two independent systems such as Thermo -Mechanical Analyzer (TMA) with Three Point Bend Probe (TPBP) module and Dilatometer. TMA can be used to measure Young’ s modulus or elastic modulus (e -modulus). Dilatometer can be used to measure Co -efficient of Thermal Expansion (CTE). We have optimized the materials configuration to measure physical properties of radiated and non -radiated materials for CTE and e -modulus, which will be useful to assess materials and processes reliability for cryogenic temperature applications. We have successfully implemented for some materials that are of interest to solar panels for the planned ECM project to measure CTE and Young's modulus. Also a separate study was undertaken to thermal cycle qualify SAs for ECM project. One can do thermal cycling to temperatures of 50 K and 133 K using liquid Helium (Lq He). This is in reality exorbitantly too expensive and is also inefficient. Furthermore, this is not technically controllable test to 133 K and 50 K temperatures. This is also too expensive to accomplish. Therefore, a vacuum set -up was made along with a cryostat successfully. This is a closed loop system where we do not lose the Helium gas. We were able to get to 35 K for a given test coupon size. These temperatures are lower than what we would intend to qualify the solar array technologies. This will allow to have some margin at cold temperatures. We successfully completed the qualification of solar array technologies down to 50 K temperatures. This is the first time we are reporting this accomplishment. In this paper, we will present the solar array materials properties for cryogenic temperatures down to 20 K temperatures and the thermal cycling qualification test results from 133 K to 50 K for three times the mission life of 120 thermal cycles to meet JPL Design.

Ramesham, Rajeshuni↗

On the Coronal Mass Ejection Detection Rate during Solar Cycles 23 and 24

The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission's white light coronagraphs have observed more than25,000 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from 1996 January to the end of 2015 July. This period of time covers almost two solar cycles (23 and 24). The basic attributes of CMEs, reported in the SOHO/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) catalog, during these solar cycles were statistically analyzed. The question of the CME detection rate and its connection to the solar cycles was considered in detail. Based on the properties and detection rate, CMEs can be divided into two categories: regular and specific events. The regular events are pronounced and follow the pattern of sunspot number. On the other hand, the special events are poorer and more correlated with the general conditions of heliosphere and corona. Nevertheless, both groups of CMEs are the result of the same physical phenomenon, viz. release of magnetic energy from closed field regions. It was demonstrated that the enhanced CME rate, since the solar cycle 23 polar-field reversal, is due to a significant decrease of total(magnetic and plasma) heliospheric pressure as well as the changed magnetic pattern of solar corona. CMEs expel free magnetic energy and helicity from the Sun; therefore, they are related to complex solar magnetic field structure. It is also worth emphasizing that the CMEs listed in the SOHO/LASCO catalog are real ejections (not false identification). Their detection rate reflects the global evolution of the magnetic field on the Sun, and not only changes in the magnetic structures associated with sunspots.

Michalek, Grzegorz↗

Digital Prototyping Methods to Enable Product Development Analysis Cycle Compression in Aerospace Systems

Historically, the product development life cycle (spanning from origination of a systems concept to initial delivery or fielding) for large-scale aerospace systems is 10-25 years. Examples of recent programs exhibiting this timeline are the Space Shuttle (13 years), , International Space Station (18 years), NASA Hubble telescope (16 years), USAF F-35 Strike Fighter (22 years), Missile Defense Agency THAAD (21 years), USAF V-22 Osprey (26 years), USAF B-2 Spirt (19 years), US Army RAH-66 Comanche (22 years, cancelled prior to fielding), James Webb Space Telescope (25 years), Space Launch System (10 years). This list illustrates the challenges of developing and fielding a modern integrated multi-disciplinary aerospace system. These development timelines are often preceded by significant research and development programs and followed by multiple increments, blocks, or spirals to reach planned operational capability. In the modern era of aerospace system acquisition, there is significant pressure to reduce system development timelines to meet system objectives and enable competitiveness in the current industry and landscape. Across the aerospace industry, a range of rapid acquisition and prototyping programs are seeking to achieve system development within timelines considerably less than 10 years. Notably, in September of 2019, NASA issued a solicitation for the development and demonstration of a Human Landing System (HLS) to deliver humans to the lunar surface by 2024 (5 years) and for the development and demonstration of a more sustainable HLS by 2026 (7 years). Lengthy product development cycle timelines are a product of multiple factors ranging from programmatic, sociological, technical, and systems engineering issues. New approaches in systems engineering provide new ways to enable these compressed development timelines. These approaches employ expanded application of advanced systems engineering methods and cross-cutting digital tools to accelerate system development, utilizing digital prototyping to connect maturing sub-system or component technologies into system or system-of-systems hardware prototypes. Approaches such as the use of system integrating physics relationships to reduce the number of design analysis cycle iterations and state analysis modeling to reduce necessary software testing (and improving coverage of system execution scenarios) represent steps forward in reducing the engineering time needed to field new systems. In addition to cost, schedule and performance benefits, expanded digital exploration and demonstration reduce risk in live system test and demonstration. This incremental demonstration approach, where digital prototyping and demonstration leads and informs full system test and demonstration, could be more important for space applications because of the increased difficulty of test and demonstration of space systems and architectures. The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at Marshall Space Flight Center merges traditional multi-disciplinary concept definition methods with modern, cross-cutting systems engineering concepts to enable iterative design and analysis of space architectures and systems through coordinated, strategic management of human capital, technical processes, and technology. This paper provides an overview of that approach, including recent examples and a strategic path forward to enabling continued reduction of aerospace system product development life cycles.

Michael D Watson↗

STEREO Observations of Stream Interaction Regions in 2007-2016:Relationship with Heliospheric Current Sheets, Solar Cycle Variations, and Dual Observations

We have conducted a survey of 575 slow-to-fast stream interaction regions (SIRs) using STEREOA/B data in 2007-2016 (Jian et al., 2019). Among 518 well-defined SIRs, 54% are associated with heliospheric current sheet (HCS) crossings, and 34% are without any HCS crossing. The other 12% of the SIRs often occur in association with magnetic sectors shorter than 3 days. The SIRs with HCS crossings have slightly slower speeds but higher maximum number densities, magnetic field strengths, dynamic pressures, and total pressures than the SIRs without an HCS. The iron charge state is higher throughout the SIRs with an HCS than the SIRs without an HCS, by about 1/3 charge unit. In contrast with the comparable phases of solar cycle 23,slightly more SIRs and higher recurrence rates are observed in the years 2009-2016 of cycle 24,with a lower HCS association rate, possibly attributed to persistent equatorial coronal holes and more pseudostreamers in this recent cycle. The solar wind speed, peak magnetic field and pressures of SIRs are all lower in this cycle, but the weakening is less than for the comparable background solar wind parameters. Before STEREO B lost contact in 2014 October, 151 SIR pairs were observed by the twin spacecraft. Of the dual observations, the maximum speed is the best correlated of the plasma parameters. We have obtained a sample of plasma parameter differences analogous to those that would be observed for a mission at Lagrange point 4 or 5.By studying several cases with large discrepancies between the dual observations, we have also investigated the effects of HCS relative location, tilt of stream interface, and small transients on the SIR properties.

Lan K Jian↗

Importance of Different Parameterization Changes for the Updated Dust Cycle Modeling in the Community Atmosphere Model (Version 6.1)

The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM6.1), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM; version 2.1), simulates the life cycle (emission, transport, and deposition) of mineral dust and its interactions with physio-chemical components to quantify the impacts of dust on climate and the Earth system. The accuracy of such quantifications relies on how well dust-related processes are represented in the model. Here we update the parameterizations for the dust module, including those on the dust emission scheme, the aerosol dry deposition scheme, the size distribution of transported dust, and the treatment of dust particle shape. Multiple simulations were undertaken to evaluate the model performance against diverse observations, and to understand how each update alters the modeled dust cycle and the simulated dust direct radiative effect. The model–observation comparisons suggest that substantially improved model representations of the dust cycle are achieved primarily through the new more physically-based dust emission scheme. In comparison, the other modifications induced small changes to the modeled dust cycle and model–observation comparisons, except the size distribution of dust in the coarse mode, which can be even more influential than that of replacing the dust emission scheme. We highlight which changes introduced here are important for which regions, shedding light on further dust model developments required for more accurately estimating interactions between dust and climate.

mineral dust parameterizations↗

Preliminary Results Cycling GEOS-JEDI with GSI-based Background Errors

The first phase of transitioning the NASA GMAO GEOS atmospheric data assimilation capabilities to JEDI involves the replacement of the Grid-point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) with a corresponding JEDI analysis. This includes taking JEDI's Unified Observation Operator (UFO), its underlying dependencies, and the JEDI solver that enables a hybrid 4DEnVar strategy similar to what is used in the current GEOS-GSI system. Variational analysis involves at least two main components associated with the observation and background cost function terms. The first is directly related to the UFO, which is being carefully validated in a joint collaboration between GMAO and NCEP to demonstrate consistency with corresponding observations usage in GSI. The second component is the background term, which in a hybrid system involves the ability to set up both a climatologically-based term and an ensemble-based term. JEDI provides the means to implement both terms through its BUMP component. Use of BUMP would require a complete re-tune of both climatological and ensemble, which is a non-trivial exercise we would prefer to avoid. As an alternative, the work here studies the results of interfacing the GSI-background error capability (GSIBEC) into JEDI through SABER. With this, the exact same background error covariance formulation used in GSI can be employed in JEDI without need for re-tuning. This brief summary covers the work done to interface GSIBEC into JEDI and shows preliminary results where the background error covariances of the control (GEOS-GSI) and experiment (GEOS-JEDI) are identical in corresponding cycling experiments. The cycling exercise is obviously preliminary and so much can be expected from GEOS-JEDI when compared to GEOS-GSI. There is still a number of features that need closer attention and although in some cases in principle ready to cycle have been intentionally either turned off or not fully exercised (e.g., VarBC is applied but not cycled). Other features are still pending implementation, one such example is the implementation of the Tangent Linear Normal Mode Constraint. Still, results are quite encouraging as hopefully the discussion here illustrates.

Ricardo Todling↗

Very High Cycle Fatigue Testing of AMS 6308 Steel

Lightweight and reliable gearboxes are required for helicopters and future electrical vertical take-off and landing aircraft. Mechanical gears in these applications experience more than 10 7 million fatigue cycles over their operating life and between maintenance intervals. Fatigue data for gear steels above 10 7 cycles is rare due to the testing time required to reach these cycle counts with traditional methods. In this paper, ultrasonic fatigue testing is used to collect mechanical fatigue data on AMS 6308 steel in the 10 7 to 1010 cycle regime.

Thomas Tallerico↗

The Coupled Mars Dust and Water Cycles: Understanding How Clouds Affect the Vertical Distribution and Meridional Transport of Dust and Water.

The dust and water cycles are crucial to the current Martian climate, and they are coupled through cloud formation. Dust strongly impacts the thermal structure of the atmosphere and thus greatly affects atmospheric circulation, while clouds provide radiative forcing and control the hemispheric exchange of water through the modification of the vertical distributions of water and dust. Recent improvements in the quality and sophistication of both observations and climate models allow for a more comprehensive understanding of how the interaction between the dust and water cycles (through cloud formation) affects the dust and water cycles individually. We focus here on the effects of clouds on the vertical distribution of dust and water, and how those vertical distributions control the net meridional transport of water. For this study, we utilize observations of temperature, dust and water ice from the Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) combined with the NASA ARC Mars Global Climate Model (MGCM). We demonstrate that the magnitude and nature of the net meridional transport of water between the northern and southern hemispheres during NH summer is sensitive to the vertical structure of the simulated aphelion cloud belt. We further examine how clouds influence the atmospheric thermal structure and thus the vertical structure of the cloud belt. Our goal is to identify and understand the importance of radiative/dynamic feedbacks due to the physical processes involved with cloud formation and evolution on the current climate of Mars.

Martian climate↗

The brayton cycle for space power

This paper reviews the basic features of the Brayton cycle and discusses the selection of such cycle parameters as working fluid, pressure, and temperature. System performance, weight, and reliability characteristics are then considered in order to determine the suitability of this type of system for the intended space applications. It is shown that the Brayton cycle can be considered suitable for low-power solar and intermediate-power nuclear applications where low specific weight is not a critical requirement. To achieve the low specific weights required for electrical propulsion missions, turbine-inlet temperatures in the 3000 R region at power levels in the 500–1000 kw range appear to be necessary.

ELECTRIC PROPULSION↗

Thermal Cycle Reliability and Failure Mechanisms of CCGA and PBGA Assemblies with and without Corner Staking

Area array packages (AAPs) with 1.27 mm pitch have been the packages of choice for commercial applications; they are now starting to be implemented for use in military and aerospace applications. Thermal cycling characteristics of plastic ball grid array (PBGA) and chip scale package assemblies, because of their wide usage for commercial applications, have been extensively reported on in literature. Thermal cycling represents the on-off environmental condition for most electronic products and therefore is a key factor that defines reliability.However, very limited data is available for thermal cycling behavior of ceramic packages commonly used for the aerospace applications. For high reliability applications, numerous AAPs are available with an identical design pattern both in ceramic and plastic packages. This paper compares assembly reliability of ceramic and plastic packages with the identical inputs/outputs(I/Os) and pattern. The ceramic package was in the form of ceramic column grid array (CCGA) with 560 I/Os peripheral array with the identical pad design as its plastic counterpart.

plastic ball grid array (PBGA)↗

Spin-Up and Tuning of the Global Carbon Cycle Model Inside the GISS ModelE2 GCM

Planetary carbon cycle involves multiple phenomena, acting at variety of temporal and spacial scales. The typical times range from minutes for leaf stomata physiology to centuries for passive soil carbon pools and deep ocean layers. So, finding a satisfactory equilibrium state becomes a challenging and computationally expensive task. Here we present the spin-up processes for different configurations of the GISS Carbon Cycle model from the model forced with MODIS observed Leaf Area Index (LAI) and prescribed ocean to the prognostic LAI and to the model fully coupled to the dynamic ocean and ocean biology. We investigate the time it takes the model to reach the equilibrium and discuss the ways to speed up this process. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS ModelE2) is currently equipped with all major algorithms necessary for the simulation of the Global Carbon Cycle. The terrestrial part is presented by Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM), which includes leaf biophysics, prognostic phenology and soil biogeochemistry module (based on Carnegie-Ames-Stanford model). The ocean part is based on the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM). The transport of atmospheric CO2 is performed by the atmospheric part of ModelE2, which employs quadratic upstream algorithm for this purpose.

Climate model↗

Updates on Modeling the Water Cycle with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model

Global Circulation Models (GCMs) have made steady progress in simulating the current Mars water cycle. It is now widely recognized that clouds are a critical component that can significantly affect the nature of the simulated water cycle. Two processes in particular are key to implementing clouds in a GCM: the microphysical processes of formation and dissipation, and their radiative effects on heating/ cooling rates. Together, these processes alter the thermal structure, change the dynamics, and regulate inter-hemispheric transport. We have made considerable progress representing these processes in the NASA Ames GCM, particularly in the presence of radiatively active water ice clouds. We present the current state of our group's water cycle modeling efforts, show results from selected simulations, highlight some of the issues, and discuss avenues for further investigation.­

Global Circulation Models (GCMs)↗

The Ocean Carbon States Database: A Proof-of-Concept Application of Cluster Analysis in the Ocean Carbon Cycle

In this paper, we present a database of the basic regimes of the carbon cycle in the ocean, the 'ocean carbon states', as obtained using a data mining/pattern recognition technique in observation-based as well as model data. The goal of this study is to establish a new data analysis methodology, test it and assess its utility in providing more insights into the regional and temporal variability of the marine carbon cycle. This is important as advanced data mining techniques are becoming widely used in climate and Earth sciences and in particular in studies of the global carbon cycle, where the interaction of physical and biogeochemical drivers confounds our ability to accurately describe, understand, and predict CO2 concentrations and their changes in the major planetary carbon reservoirs. In this proof-of-concept study, we focus on using well-understood data that are based on observations, as well as model results from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model. Our analysis shows that ocean carbon states are associated with the subtropical-subpolar gyre during the colder months of the year and the tropics during the warmer season in the North Atlantic basin. Conversely, in the Southern Ocean, the ocean carbon states can be associated with the subtropical and Antarctic convergence zones in the warmer season and the coastal Antarctic divergence zone in the colder season. With respect to model evaluation, we find that the GISS model reproduces the cold and warm season regimes more skillfully in the North Atlantic than in the Southern Ocean and matches the observed seasonality better than the spatial distribution of the regimes. Finally, the ocean carbon states provide useful information in the model error attribution. Model air-sea CO2 flux biases in the North Atlantic stem from wind speed and salinity biases in the subpolar region and nutrient and wind speed biases in the subtropics and tropics. Nutrient biases are shown to be most important in the Southern Ocean flux bias.

carbon cycle↗