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At least 523 records · Page 29

Lightning Behavior and its Dependence on Storm Kinematic and Precipitation Processes in Northern Alabama

Numerous case studies and recent modeling studies have found that various metrics of updraft intensity appear to be reasonably well correlated to lightning production in thunderstorms, particularly severe thunderstorms. Indeed, the relationship between updraft and lightning flash rate is hypothesized to be the physical connection between a lightning "jump" signature and manifestations of severe weather such as tornadic activity. This study further examines this connection using a combination of dual Doppler wind retrievals made with the UAH ARMOR dual polarimetric and KHTX WSR 88D Doppler radar pair, together with northern Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) data. The dual Doppler data were used to construct three dimensional wind fields and the retrieved vertical velocity fields were subsequently compared to collocated total lightning flash rates observed by the LMA. Particular attention was paid to the timing of updraft pulses relative to changes in the flash rate, with the goal of assessing impacts on warning decision lead time. Results from the analysis of severe and non severe thunderstorms in Northern Alabama will be presented including the EF 4 tornado producing supercell on 6 February 2008.

Johnson, Elsie V.↗

Applications of the International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model

Recently the International Space Station (ISS) has incorporated more Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) in the decision making process for significant issues. Future PRAs will have major impact to ISS and future spacecraft development and operations. These PRAs will have their foundation in the current complete ISS PRA model and the current PRA trade studies that are being analyzed as requested by ISS Program stakeholders. ISS PRAs have recently helped in the decision making process for determining reliability requirements for future NASA spacecraft and commercial spacecraft, making crew rescue decisions, as well as making operational requirements for ISS orbital orientation, planning Extravehicular activities (EVAs) and robotic operations. This paper will describe some applications of the ISS PRA model and how they impacted the final decision. This paper will discuss future analysis topics such as life extension, requirements of new commercial vehicles visiting ISS.

Grant, Warren↗

Development of the Vibration Isolation System for the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device

This paper describes the development of the Vibration Isolation System for the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device from conceptual design to lessons learned. Maintaining a micro-g environment on the International Space Station requires that experiment racks and major vibration sources be isolated. The challenge in characterizing exercise loads and testing the system in the presence of gravity led to a decision to qualify the system by analysis. Available data suggests that the system is successful in attenuating loads, yet there has been a major component failure and several procedural issues during its 3 years of operational use.

Niebuhr, Jason H.↗

Estimating the Risk of Renal Stone Events During Long-Duration Spaceflight

Introduction: Given the bone loss and increased urinary calcium excretion in the microgravity environment, persons participating in long-duration spaceflight may have an increased risk for renal stone formation. Renal stones are often an incidental finding of abdominal imaging studies done for other reasons. Thus, some crewmembers may have undiscovered, asymptomatic stones prior to their mission. Methods: An extensive literature search was conducted concerning the natural history of asymptomatic renal stones. For comparison, simulations were done using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is an evidence-based decision support tool that provides risk analysis and has the capability to optimize medical systems for missions by minimizing the occurrence of adverse mission outcomes such as evacuation and loss of crew life within specified mass and volume constraints. Results: The literature of the natural history of asymptomatic renal stones in the general medical population shows that the probability of symptomatic event is 8% to 34% at 1 to 3 years for stones < 7 mm. Extrapolated to a 6-month mission, for stones < 5 to 7 mm, the risk for any stone event is about 4 to 6%, with a 0.7% to 4% risk for intervention, respectively. IMM simulations compare favorably with risk estimates garnered from the terrestrial literature. The IMM forecasts that symptomatic renal stones may be one of the top drivers for medical evacuation of an International Space Station (ISS) mission. Discussion: Although the likelihood of a stone event is low, the consequences could be severe due to limitations of current ISS medical capabilities. Therefore, these risks need to be quantified to aid planning, limit crew morbidity and mitigate mission impacts. This will be especially critical for missions beyond earth orbit, where evacuation may not be an option.

Reyes, David↗

Estimating the Risk of Renal Stone Events during Long-Duration Spaceflight

Introduction: Given the bone loss and increased urinary calcium excretion in the microgravity environment, persons participating in long-duration spaceflight may have an increased risk for renal stone formation. Renal stones are often an incidental finding of abdominal imaging studies done for other reasons. Thus, some crewmembers may have undiscovered, asymptomatic stones prior to their mission. Methods: An extensive literature search was conducted concerning the natural history of asymptomatic renal stones. For comparison, simulations were done using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is an evidence-based decision support tool that provides risk analysis and has the capability to optimize medical systems for missions by minimizing the occurrence of adverse mission outcomes such as evacuation and loss of crew life within specified mass and volume constraints. Results: The literature of the natural history of asymptomatic renal stones in the general medical population shows that the probability of symptomatic event is 8% to 34% at 1 to 3 years for stones < 7 mm. Extrapolated to a 6-month mission, for stones < 5 to 7 mm, the risk for any stone event is about 4 to 6%, with a 0.7% to 4% risk for intervention, respectively. IMM simulations compare favorably with risk estimates garnered from the terrestrial literature. The IMM forecasts that symptomatic renal stones may be one of the top drivers for medical evacuation of an International Space Station (ISS) mission. Discussion: Although the likelihood of a stone event is low, the consequences could be severe due to limitations of current ISS medical capabilities. Therefore, these risks need to be quantified to aid planning, limit crew morbidity and mitigate mission impacts. This will be especially critical for missions beyond earth orbit, where evacuation may not be an option.

Reyes, David↗

The Large UV/Optical/Infrared Surveyor Decadal Mission Concept Thermal System Architecture

The Large Ultraviolet/Optical/Infrared (LUVOIR) Surveyor is one of four large strategic mission concept studies commissioned by NASA for the 2020 Decadal Survey in Astronomy and Astrophysics. Slated for launch to the second Lagrange point (L2) in the mid-to-late 2030s, LUVOIR seeks to directly image habitable exoplanets around sun-like stars, characterize their atmospheric and surface composition, and search for biosignatures, as well as study a large array of astrophysics goals including galaxy formation and evolution. Two observatory architectures are currently being considered which bound the trade-off between cost, risk, and scientific return: a 15-meter diameter segmented aperture primary mirror in a three-mirror anastigmat configuration, and an 8-meter diameter unobscured segmented aperture design. To achieve its science objectives, both architectures require milli-Kelvin level thermal stability over the optics, structural components, and interfaces to attain picometer wavefront RMS stability. A 270 Kelvin operational temperature was chosen to balance the ability to perform science in the near-infrared band and the desire to maintain the structure at a temperature with favorable material properties and lower contamination accumulation. This paper will focus on the system-level thermal designs of both LUVOIR observatory architectures. It will detail the various thermal control methods used in each of the major components - the optical telescope assembly, the spacecraft bus, the sunshade, and the suite of accompanying instruments - as well as provide a comprehensive overview of the analysis and justification for each design decision. It will additionally discuss any critical thermal challenges faced by the engineering team should either architecture be prioritized by the Astro2020 Decadal Survey process to proceed as the next large strategic mission for development.

Yang, Kan↗

The Large UV/Optical/Infrared Surveyor Decadal Mission Concept Thermal System Architecture

The Large Ultraviolet/Optical/Infrared (LUVOIR) Surveyor is one of four large strategic mission concept studies commissioned by NASA for the 2020 Decadal Survey in Astronomy and Astrophysics. Slated for launch to the second Lagrange point (L2) in the mid-to-late 2030s, LUVOIR seeks to directly image habitable exoplanets around sun-like stars, characterize their atmospheric and surface composition, and search for biosignatures, as well as study a large array of astrophysics goals including galaxy formation and evolution. Two observatory architectures are currently being considered which bound the trade-off between cost, risk, and scientific return: a 15-meter diameter segmented aperture primary mirror in a three-mirror anastigmat configuration, and an 8-meter diameter unobscured segmented aperture design. To achieve its science objectives, both architectures require milli-Kelvin level thermal stability over the optics, structural components, and interfaces to attain picometer wavefront RMS stability. A 270 Kelvin operational temperature was chosen to balance the ability to perform science in the near-infrared band and the desire to maintain the structure at a temperature with favorable material properties and lower contamination accumulation. This paper will focus on the system-level thermal designs of both LUVOIR observatory architectures. It will detail the various thermal control methods used in each of the major components - the optical telescope assembly, the spacecraft bus, the sunshade, and the suite of accompanying instruments - as well as provide a comprehensive overview of the analysis and justification for each design decision. It will additionally discuss any critical thermal challenges faced by the engineering team should either architecture be prioritized by the Astro2020 Decadal Survey process to proceed as the next large strategic mission for development.

Yang, Kan↗

Air Pollutant Emissions and Regulatory Implications of Co-Processing Raw Bio-Oil in U.S. Petroleum Refineries

Pyrolysis oil, often referred as bio-oil or biocrude, has attracted considerable attention because it has higher energy density and carbon content compared to the raw biomass. Using pyrolysis oil derived from low cost and underutilized biomass to produce renewable hydrocarbon fuels provides a viable link between the agriculture/forestry and (petro-) chemical industry. Co-processing bio-oil with vacuum gas oil (VGO) in petroleum refinery is appealing due to the relatively low capital requirement to retrofit refinery and the compatibility of fuel products with existing infrastructure. In order to implement co-processing, a petroleum refinery would need to consider several process modifications and therefore could be subject to varying levels of air permitting requirements based on bio-oil co-processing ratio, co-processing capacity in existing units, the amount of regulated pollutants expected to be emitted, among other factors. This analysis considers co-processing 5% (by weight) of raw bio-oil with VGO in the fluidized catalytic cracking (FCC) unit(s) in a petroleum refinery. We estimate the potential increase in emissions of regulated air pollutants resulting from the modifications required to implement bio-oil co-processing and evaluate the regulatory and permitting implications for three FCC size categories in the U.S. refineries, which could co-processes raw bio-oil to produce partially renewable transportation fuels. We also assess technically feasible emission control options petroleum refineries could adopt to avoid being subject to major source permitting requirements if the estimated increase in regulated air pollutant emission exceeds the applicable threshold for major modifications. Insights from our analysis can help overcome challenges and risks associated with timely obtaining air permits required to implement bio-oil co-processing in existing refineries. Our analysis also provides needed information for decision makers (e.g., local air quality agencies) to understand the potential air quality implications for retrofitting refineries to co-process bio-oil, particularly in areas with high concentration of petroleum refineries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Building the Case for Hybrid Energy Developments: Webinar Recording Day 2

INL, PNNL, and NREL, with support from our academic and industry partners, hosted a 2-day webinar to learn more about the benefits of hybrid energy systems, considerations for designing the right system for communities, and practical tools that can help with the design and development process. In Day 2 of this webinar, the focus was on tools that can be used to help inform design decisions for hybrid systems, including resource analysis, siting, resilience, valuation, and resource optimization. Day 2 also highlighted funding opportunities for hybrid systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Building the Case for Hybrid Energy Developments: Webinar Recording Day 2

INL, PNNL, and NREL, with support from our academic and industry partners, hosted a 2-day webinar to learn more about the benefits of hybrid energy systems, considerations for designing the right system for communities, and practical tools that can help with the design and development process. In Day 2 of this webinar, the focus was on tools that can be used to help inform design decisions for hybrid systems, including resource analysis, siting, resilience, valuation, and resource optimization. Day 2 also highlighted funding opportunities for hybrid systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Identification of Crew-Systems Interactions and Decision Related Trends

NASA Vehicle System Safety Technology (VSST) project management uses systems analysis to identify key issues and maintain a portfolio of research leading to potential solutions to its three identified technical challenges. Statistical data and published safety priority lists from academic, industry and other government agencies were reviewed and analyzed by NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) systems analysis personnel to identify issues and future research needs related to one of VSST's technical challenges, Crew Decision Making (CDM). The data examined in the study were obtained from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Aviation Accident and Incident Data System, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Accident/Incident Data System and the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). In addition, this report contains the results of a review of safety priority lists, information databases and other documented references pertaining to aviation crew systems issues and future research needs. The specific sources examined were: Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Safety Enhancements Reserved for Future Implementation (SERFIs), Flight Deck Automation Issues (FDAI) and NTSB Most Wanted List and Open Recommendations. Various automation issues taxonomies and priority lists pertaining to human factors, automation and flight design were combined to create a list of automation issues related to CDM.

Jones, Sharon Monica↗

Visualization Component of Vehicle Health Decision Support System

The visualization front-end of a Decision Support System (DSS) also includes an analysis engine linked to vehicle telemetry, and a database of learned models for known behaviors. Because the display is graphical rather than text-based, the summarization it provides has a greater information density on one screen for evaluation by a flight controller.This tool provides a system-level visualization of the state of a vehicle, and drill-down capability for more details and interfaces to separate analysis algorithms and sensor data streams. The system-level view is a 3D rendering of the vehicle, with sensors represented as icons, tied to appropriate positions within the vehicle body and colored to indicate sensor state (e.g., normal, warning, anomalous state, etc.). The sensor data is received via an Information Sharing Protocol (ISP) client that connects to an external server for real-time telemetry. Users can interactively pan, zoom, and rotate this 3D view, as well as select sensors for a detail plot of the associated time series data. Subsets of the plotted data can be selected and sent to an external analysis engine to either search for a similar time series in an historical database, or to detect anomalous events. The system overview and plotting capabilities are completely general in that they can be applied to any vehicle instrumented with a collection of sensors. This visualization component can interface with the ISP for data streams used by NASA s Mission Control Center at Johnson Space Center. In addition, it can connect to, and display results from, separate analysis engine components that identify anomalies or that search for past instances of similar behavior. This software supports NASA's Software, Intelligent Systems, and Modeling element in the Exploration Systems Research and Technology Program by augmenting the capability of human flight controllers to make correct decisions, thus increasing safety and reliability. It was designed specifically as a tool for NASA's flight controllers to monitor the International Space Station and a future Crew Exploration Vehicle.

Jacob, Joseph↗

Case Study: Hybrid Carbon Conversion Using Low-Carbon Energy Sources in Coal-Producing States

The demand for more carbon efficient power sources and a decrease in natural gas prices has decreased the desire for coal power. This decrease in demand has led to massive job losses in coal mining regions over the past decade. The purpose of this project is to develop a hybrid energy system utilizing both a coal power plant and advanced reactor, which is competitive with natural gas by improving on profitability and decreasing carbon emissions. This report details the problem with a summary of the impact on the coal industry and the availability of renewable energy sources in the Appalachian region. Because of the geography of the region, variable renewable energy sources are not available without significant size and siting restrictions. However, biomass in the form of wood waste is abundant and can be used as a carbon neutral energy source. Combining biomass and coal processing, in addition to thermal power plants, can increase system profits and efficiency by providing peaking power and conversion opportunities for secondary markets. The electric load is based on publicly available demand data from Appalachian Power, which services the western Virginia and southern West Virginia in the Appalachian region. The demand information is combined by service, normalized, and scaled to an average demand of 1000 kW, which will be the basis for sizing the hybrid energy system. A traditional screening curve analysis for a coal plant and advanced reactor shows that the least cost design varies significantly based on the assumed discount rate and capital recovery period. An optimization program to size the design in TEAL based on the load curve gives 10 optimal designs, all with a negative resulting net present value (NPV) and a coal plant capacity of less than 15%. Including profits from selling captured carbon at a flat rate results in a positive NPV; however, the coal capacity factor only increases to about 40%. There are limitations with this optimization as well since the price of CO2 is likely to decrease as more is sold to the conversion market. The suggested design will combine coal power, an advanced reactor, and coal and biomass coprocessing to produce a variety of products that can be sold to the conversion market while increasing system efficiency. The analysis of conversion pathways for coal and biomass reveals that multiple options will need to be included in the analysis to produce the optimal system design. Three systems will be optimized and compared to determine the best design based on the figures of merit of total NPV and cost of carbon avoided. The first system will include a coal power plant and an advanced reactor that will sell electricity to the grid to meet demand and sell captured carbon to the conversion market. The second system adds a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant, which will utilize electricity during times of low demand to produce hydrogen and sell it to the conversion market. The third system adds biomass and coal processing with options for hydrocarbon oils, syngas to be produced for the conversion market, and electricity generation to power components within the system or provide peaking power. This analysis will be based on a new approach that combines traditional screening curve methods with a dispatch algorithm that optimizes the system based on the opportunity cost of different production options. The resulting optimization algorithm should provide results with less processing time than HERON’s decision tree method. The results from this analysis will determine an optimal design and reinforce the benefits of coal power when used in a hybrid energy system. The initial results show that the addition of a secondary market for carbon sales could result in a positive NPV and increases the capacity factor of the coal plant as compared to a design with only sales to the electricity market. The addition of more markets and additional coal consumption from biomass coprocessing could increase NPV further, replace carbon in other markets through the sale of biomass-derived hydrocarbons, and demonstrate the value of coal power technology.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Immersive Digital Twins and Decision Making

This work focuses on developing and implementing immersive digital twins to support decision-making processes in construction automation and energy simulation analysis. The use of digital twins enables users to explore and interact with virtual replicas of physical systems, providing a unique and valuable perspective for problem-solving. In the context of construction automation, we present two case studies that integrate immersive visualization and worker-machine interaction. In the context of energy simulation analysis using digital twins, we describe our digital twin framework that combines interactive visualization with machine learning techniques to approximate computationally expensive simulations, allowing for faster and more efficient analysis of complex energy systems. Through these research endeavors, we demonstrate the potential of immersive digital twins in decision-making across various domains.

digital twins↗

Affordability Engineering: Bridging the Gap Between Design and Cost

Affordability is a commonly used term that takes on numerous meanings depending on the context used. Within conceptual design of complex systems, the term generally implies comparisons between expected costs and expected resources. This characterization is largely correct, but does not convey the many nuances and considerations that are frequently misunderstood and underappreciated. In the most fundamental sense, affordability and cost directly relate to engineering and programmatic decisions made throughout development programs. Systems engineering texts point out that there is a temporal aspect to this relationship, for decisions made earlier in a program dictate design implications much more so than those made during latter phases. This paper explores affordability engineering and its many sub-disciplines by discussing how it can be considered an additional engineering discipline to be balanced throughout the systems engineering and systems analysis processes. Example methods of multidisciplinary design analysis with affordability as a key driver will be discussed, as will example methods of data visualization, probabilistic analysis, and other ways of relating design decisions to affordability results.

Reeves, J. D.↗

Mapping of wildlife habitat in Farmington Bay, Utah

Mapping was accomplished through the interpretation of high-altitude color infrared photography. The feasibility of utilizing LANDSAT digital data to augment the analysis was explored; complex patterns of wildlife habitat and confusion of spectral classes resulted in the decision to make limited use of LANDSAT data in the analysis. The final product is a map which delineates wildlife habitat at a scale of 1:24,000. The map is registered to and printed on a screened U.S.G.S. quadrangle base map. Screened delineations of shoreline contours, mapped from a previous study, are also shown on the map. Intensive field checking of the map was accomplished for the Farmington Bay Waterfowl Management Area in August 1981; other areas on the map received only spot field checking.

Jaynes, R. A.↗

Use of the Tool to Support Renewable Energy Project Development (RE Data Explorer)

The Renewable Energy (RE) Data Explorer is a user-friendly, geospatial analysis tool for analyzing renewable energy potential and informing decisions. Developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), RE Data Explorer performs visualization and analysis of renewable energy potential that can be customized for different scenarios. RE Data Explorer can support prospecting, integrated planning, policymaking, and other decision-making activities to accelerate renewable energy deployment. This document provides information on how the RE Data Explorer can support private sector utility-scale renewable energy project development.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗