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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Partially Ionized Plasma Physics and Technological Applications

Partially ionized plasma physics has attracted increased attention recently due to numerous technological applications made possible by the increased sophistication of computer modelling, the depth of the theoretical analysis, and the technological applications to a vast field of manufacturing for computer components. Partially ionized plasma is characterized by a significant presence of neutral particles in contrast to the fully ionized plasma. The theoretical analysis is based upon solutions of the kinetic Boltzmann equation, yielding the non-Maxwellian electron energy distribution function (EEDF), thereby emphasizing the difference with a fully ionized plasma. The impact of the effect on discharges in inert and molecular gases is described in detail, yielding the complex nonlinear phenomena resulting in plasma selforganization. A few examples of such phenomena are given, including the non-monotonic EEDFs in the discharge afterglow in a mixture of argon with the molecular gas NF3; the explosive generation of cold electron populations in capacitive discharges, hysteresis of EEDF in inductively coupled plasmas. Recently, highly advanced computer codes were developed in order to address the outstanding challenges in plasma technology. These developments are briefly described in general terms.

non-Maxwellian electron energy distribution functi↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving Chirped Fiber Bragg Grating Resolution for Position-Sensitive Sensors in Shock- and Detonation-Driven Experiments

Chirped fiber Bragg gratings (CFBGs) are robust diagnostic sensors that are widely used to track detonation-driven and shock wave propagation. CFBGs are inscribed with a linearly chirped periodic index of refraction changes that alter the Bragg wavelength along the length of the probe. The light return of each individual Bragg element is captured by a detector at a unique time to map the full reflected spectrum. The CFBG spectrum is measured with a dispersive Fourier transform of the reflected light that temporally stretches the spectrum to increase spatial resolution and make a one-to-one map of the wavelength on a time axis. Here, we propose an improvement of CFBG temporal resolution by incorporating two co-linear laser pulses with orthogonal polarization states and a 5 ns time offset. The two separate signals were split and tracked by two separate detectors. An oscilloscope captured good separation in the signals, and two separate spectrograms were generated and interleaved in the post-processing of the data. This novel technique doubled the CFBG temporal resolution and led to a doubled location resolution. As a proof-of-concept of this technique, the resolution improvement was compared between standard CFBG measurements and the two polarization states method on a position-sensitive CFBG sensor. CFBG resolution doubling will advance sensor capabilities and will have a direct impact on improving capture and analysis in dynamic, high-explosive experiments.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rocket Launch Detection with Smartphone Audio and Transfer Learning

Rocket launches generate infrasound signatures that have been detected at great distances. Due to the sparsity of the networks that have made these detections, however, most signals are detected tens of minutes to hours after the rocket launch. In this work, a method of near-real-time detection of rocket launches using data from a network of smartphones located 10–70 km from launch sites is presented. A machine learning model is trained and tested on the open-access Aggregated Smartphone Timeseries of Rocket-generated Acoustics (ASTRA), Smartphone High-explosive Audio Recordings Dataset (SHAReD), and ESC-50 datasets, resulting in a final accuracy of 97% and a false positive rate of <1%. The performance and behavior of the model are summarized, and its suitability for persistent monitoring applications is discussed.

acoustics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Can the Solar Atmosphere Generate Very-High-Energy Cosmic Rays?

The origin and acceleration of high-energy particles, constituting cosmic rays, is likely to remain an important topic in modern astrophysics. Among the two categories galactic and solar cosmic rays, the latter are much less investigated. The primary source of solar cosmic ray particles are impulsive explosions of the magnetized plasma, known as solar flares and coronal mass ejections. These particles, however, are characterized by relatively low energies compared to their galactic counterparts. In this work, we explore the resonance wave–wave (RWW) interaction between the polarized electromagnetic radiation emitted by the solar active regions and the quantum waves associated with high-energy, relativistic electrons generated during solar flares. Mathematically, the RWW interaction problem boils down to analyzing a Klein–Gordon Equation (spinless electrons) embedded in the electromagnetic field. We find that RWW could accelerate the relativistic electrons to enormous energies even comparable to energies in the galactic cosmic rays.

acceleration of particles↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neutrino-driven Outflows and the Elemental Abundance Patterns of Very Metal-poor Stars

Abstract The elemental abundances between strontium and silver ( Z = 38–47) observed in the atmospheres of very metal-poor stars in the Galaxy may contain the fingerprint of the weak r -process and ν p -process occurring in early core-collapse supernovae explosions. In this work, we combine various astrophysical conditions based on a steady-state model to cover the richness of the supernova ejecta in terms of entropy, expansion timescale, and electron fraction. The calculated abundances based on different combinations of conditions are compared with stellar observations, with the aim of constraining supernova ejecta conditions. We find that some conditions of the neutrino-driven outflows consistently reproduce the observed abundances of our sample. In addition, from the successful combinations, the neutron-rich trajectories better reproduce the observed abundances of Sr–Zr ( Z = 38–40), while the proton-rich ones, Mo–Pd ( Z = 42–47).

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear Uncertainties Associated with the Nucleosynthesis in Ejecta of a Black Hole Accretion Disk

Abstract The simulation of heavy element nucleosynthesis requires input from yet-to-be-measured nuclear properties. The uncertainty in the values of these off-stability nuclear properties propagates to uncertainties in the predictions of elemental and isotopic abundances. However, for any given astrophysical explosion, there are many different trajectories, i.e., temperature and density histories, experienced by outflowing material, and thus different nuclear properties can come into play. We consider combined nucleosynthesis results from 460,000 trajectories from a black hole accretion disk and find the spread in elemental predictions due solely to unknown nuclear properties to be a factor of a few. We analyze this relative spread in model predictions due to nuclear variations and conclude that the uncertainties can be attributed to a combination of properties in a given region of the abundance pattern. We calculate a cross-correlation between mass changes and abundance changes to show how variations among the properties of participating nuclei may be explored. Our results provide further impetus for measurements of multiple quantities on individual short-lived neutron-rich isotopes at modern experimental facilities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Kink Instability of Flux Ropes in Partially Ionized Plasmas

In the solar atmosphere, flux ropes are subject to current-driven instabilities that are crucial in driving plasma eruptions, ejections, and heating. A typical ideal magnetohydrodynamics instability developing in flux ropes is the helical kink, which twists the flux rope axis. The growth of this instability can trigger magnetic reconnection, which can explain the formation of chromospheric jets and spicules, but its development has never been investigated in a partially ionized plasma (PIP). Here, we study the kink instability in PIP to understand how it develops in the solar chromosphere, where it is affected by charge-neutral interactions. Partial ionization speeds up the onset of the nonlinear phase of the instability, as the plasma β of the isolated plasma is smaller than the total plasma β of the bulk. The distribution of the released magnetic energy changes in fully ionized plasma and PIP, with a larger increase in internal energy associated with the PIP cases. The temperature in PIP increases faster also due to heating terms from the two-fluid dynamics. PIP effects trigger kink instability on shorter time scales, which is reflected in more explosive chromospheric flux rope dynamics. These results are crucial to understanding the dynamics of small-scale chromospheric structures—minifilament eruptions—that thus far have been largely neglected but could significantly contribute to chromospheric heating and jet formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiwavelength Afterglow Analysis of GRB 221009A: Unveiling the Evolution of a Cooling Break in a Wind-like Medium

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are the most energetic explosions in the Universe, and their afterglow emission provides an opportunity to probe the physics of relativistic shock waves in an extreme environment. Several key pieces for completing the picture of GRB afterglow physics are still missing, including jet properties, the emission mechanism, and particle acceleration. Here, we present a study of the afterglow emission of GRB 221009A, the most energetic GRB ever observed. Using optical, X-ray, and gamma-ray data up to approximately 2 days after the trigger, we trace the evolution of the multiwavelength spectrum and the physical parameters behind the emission process. The broadband spectrum is consistent with the synchrotron emission emitted by relativistic electrons with its index of p = 2.29 ± 0.02. We identify a break energy at keV and an exponential cutoff at GeV in the observed multiwavelength spectrum. The break energy increases in time from $16.0^{+7.1}_{-4.9}$ keV at 0.65 days to $46.8^{+25.0}_{-15.5}$ keV at 1.68 days, favoring a stellar-wind-like profile of the circumburst medium with k = 2.4 ± 0.1 as in ρ(r) ∝ r -k . The high-energy attenuation at around 0.4 to 4 GeV is attributed to the maximum of the particle acceleration in the relativistic shock wave. This study confirms that the synchrotron process can explain the multiwavelength afterglow emission and its evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrodynamic Predictions for the Next Outburst of T Coronae Borealis: It Will Be the Brightest Classical or Recurrent Nova Ever Observed in X-Rays*

T Coronae Borealis (TCrB) is a recurrent nova with recorded outbursts in 1866 and 1946 and possible outbursts in 1217 and 1787. It is predicted to explode again in 2025 or 2026 based on multiple observational studies. The system consists of a massive ( M wd ≳ 1.35 M ⊙ ) white dwarf (WD) and a red giant (M3–M4 III). We have performed 1D hydrodynamic simulations with NOVA to predict the behavior of the next outburst. These simulations consist of a range of mass accretion rates onto ∼1.35 M ⊙ WDs, designed to bound the conditions necessary to achieve ignition of an explosion after an ≈80 yr interoutburst period. We have used both carbon–oxygen and oxygen–neon initial compositions, in order to include the possible ejecta abundances to be measured in the observations of the next outburst. As the WD in the TCrB system is observed to be massive, theoretical predictions reported here imply that the WD is growing in mass as a consequence of the thermonuclear runaway. Therefore, the secular evolution of the WD may allow it to approach the Chandrasekhar limit and either explode as a Type Ia supernova or undergo accretion-induced collapse, depending on its underlying composition. We have followed the evolution of just the WD, after removing the ejected matter from the surface layers. Our intent is to illuminate the mystery of the unique, second maximum in the two well-observed outbursts and we have found conditions that bracket the predictions.

Cataclysmic variable stars↗
DOE OSTI2025

The BTSbot-nearby Discovery of SN 2024jlf: Rapid, Autonomous Follow-up Probes Interaction in an 18.5 Mpc Type IIP Supernova

We present observations of the Type IIP supernova (SN) SN 2024jlf, including spectroscopy beginning just 0.7 days (∼17 hr) after first light. Rapid follow-up was enabled by the new BTSbot-nearby program, which involves autonomously triggering target-of-opportunity requests for new transients in Zwicky Transient Facility data that are coincident with nearby (D < 60 Mpc) galaxies and identified by the BTSbot machine learning model. Early photometry and nondetections shortly prior to first light show that SN 2024jlf initially brightened by >4 mag day −1 , quicker than ∼90% of Type II SNe. Early spectra reveal weak flash ionization features: narrow, short-lived (1.3 < τ[days] < 1.8) emission lines of Hα, He II , and C IV . Assuming a wind velocity of v w = 50 km s −1 , these properties indicate that the red supergiant progenitor exhibited enhanced mass loss in the last year before explosion. We constrain the mass-loss rate to $1{0}^{-4}\lt \dot{M}\,[{M}_{\odot }\,{\mathrm{yr}}^{-1}]\lt 1{0}^{-3}$ by matching observations to model grids from two independent radiative hydrodynamics codes. BTSbot-nearby automation minimizes spectroscopic follow-up latency, enabling the observation of ephemeral early-time phenomena exhibited by transients.

core-collapse supernovae↗
DOE OSTI2025

The DECam MAGIC Survey: Spectroscopic Follow-up of the Most Metal-poor Stars in the Distant Milky Way Halo *

In this work, we present high-resolution spectroscopic observations for six metal-poor stars with [Fe/H] < –3 (including one with [Fe/H] < –4), selected using narrowband Ca ii HK photometry from the DECam MAGIC Survey. The spectroscopic data confirm the accuracy of the photometric metallicities and allow for the determination of chemical abundances for 16 elements, from carbon to barium. The program stars have chemical abundances consistent with the [Fe/H] < –3 range. A kinematic/dynamical analysis suggests that all program stars belong to the distant Milky Way halo population (heliocentric distances 35 < d helio /kpc ≲ 55), including three with high-energy orbits that might have been associated with the Magellanic system and one, J0026−5445, having parameters consistent with being a member of the Sagittarius stream. The remaining two stars show kinematics consistent with the Gaia-Sausage/Enceladus dwarf galaxy merger. J0433−5548, with [Fe/H] = –4.12, is a carbon-enhanced ultra metal-poor star, with [C/Fe] = +1.73. This star is believed to be a bona fide second-generation star, and its chemical abundance pattern was compared with yields from metal-free supernova models. Results suggest that J0433−5548 could have been formed from a gas cloud enriched by a single supernova explosion from an ∼11 M ⊙ star in the early Universe. The successful identification of such objects demonstrates the reliability of photometric metallicity estimates, which can be used for target selection and statistical studies of faint targets in the Milky Way and its satellite population. These discoveries illustrate the power of measuring chemical abundances of metal-poor Milky Way halo stars to learn more about early galaxy formation and evolution.

CEMP stars↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of the Latest 22 Ne+ α Reaction Rates on Nucleosynthesis in Massive Stars and Galactic Chemical Evolution

In massive stars (initial mass of ≳9 M ⊙ ), the weak s- (slow neutron capture) process produces elements between Fe and Zr, enriching the Galaxy with these elements through core-collapse supernova explosions. The weak s-process nucleosynthesis is driven by neutrons produced in the 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg reaction during convective He core and C shell burning. The yields of heavy elements thus depend on the 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg and the competitive 22 Ne(α, γ) 26 Mg reaction rates, which are dominated by several narrow-resonance reactions. While the accuracy of these rates has been under debate for decades, recent experimental efforts, including ours, drastically reduced these uncertainties. In this work, we use a set of 280 massive star nucleosynthesis models calculated using different 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg and 22 Ne(α, γ) 26 Mg rates and a galactic chemical evolution (GCE) study to probe their impact on the weak s-process elemental abundances in the Galaxy. The GCE was computed with the OMEGA+ code, using the new sets of stellar yields with different 22 Ne+α rates. From GCE, we find that these rates are causing up to 0.45 dex of variations in the [Cu/Fe], [Ga/Fe], and [Ge/Fe] ratios predicted at solar metallicity. The greatest impact on the stellar nucleosynthesis and GCE results derives from uncertainties in the (α, n) strength (ωγ (α,n) ) of the E x = 11.32 MeV resonance. We show that variations observed in the GCE calculations for weak s-process elements become negligibly smaller than dispersions found in observations once the ωγ (α,n) is accurately determined within the uncertainty of 10%–20% (typically reported experimental errors for the resonance) in future nuclear physics experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Updated Picture of Presolar History from Short-lived Radioactive Isotopes and Inferences on the Birth of the Sun

We examine the origin of the short-lived radionuclides (SLRs; defined as having half-lives between 0.1 and 100 Ma) present in the early solar system (ESS) by investigating how predictions of their abundances in the interstellar medium (ISM) from steady-state equilibrium relate to their ESS values. For this, we take into account the non-negligible time t iso elapsed between the isolation of the presolar molecular cloud and the formation of the ESS, during which the SLRs decayed freely. We also consider the alternative scenario in which the presolar molecular cloud remained partially mixed with the ISM, with a mixing timescale t mix . We find that the ESS abundances of 107 Pd and 182 Hf produced by slow neutron captures (s-process) and of 53 Mn and 60 Fe produced by explosive nucleosynthesis can be consistently explained within these scenarios. Their required tiso is 9–12 Ma and their required tmix is 11–14 Ma (with one potential exception of t mix = 38 Ma), depending on galactic uncertainties, such as the galactic star formation history and efficiency and the star-to-gas mass ratio. Another s -process SLR, 205 Pb, has a more uncertain ESS value and falls within only some of these time values. The same applies to the SLRs produced by the p -process ( 92 Nb and 146 Sm), depending on the latter’s half-life. In agreement with previous studies, we find that the ESS abundances of the rapid neutron-capture isotopes ( 129 I, 244 Pu, and 247 Cm) and of the most short-lived radionuclides ( 26 Al, 36 Cl, and 41 Ca) cannot be explained by assuming steady-state equilibrium in the ISM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neutrino and Electromagnetic Signatures from Superluminous Supernovae: A Case Study for SN 2017egm

Superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) are rare transients that are ∼10–100 times more luminous than ordinary stellar explosions, reaching peak optical luminosities ∼10 44 –10 45 erg s −1 . The energy source powering SLSNe remains uncertain. In this work, we explore the multiwavelength and multimessenger signatures of the scenario in which SLSNe are powered by a newly born millisecond magnetar. We model the dynamical evolution and emission from the coupled system comprised of the magnetar, wind, nebula, and supernova ejecta, consistently evaluating the pair multiplicity of the wind and nebula regions, and the bulk wind Lorentz factor governing the e + − e − injection spectra in the nebula. We compute the thermal and nonthermal electromagnetic signatures, neutrino signatures, and investigate their detection prospects. For SN 2017egm, the nearest observed SLSNe, our prediction for high-energy gamma rays matches the recent detection by the Fermi Large Area Telescope. For neutrinos, using SN 2017egm a canonical SLSNe, we find that in the era of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, a stacking analysis with upcoming neutrino observatories can lead to 3σ detection significance of neutrino events from a population of SLSNe within a decade of operation.

Mukhopadhyay, Mainak [Fermi National Accelerator L↗
DOE OSTI2024

A JWST Survey of the Supernova Remnant Cassiopeia A

We present initial results from a James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) survey of the youngest Galactic core-collapse supernova remnant, Cassiopeia A (Cas A), made up of NIRCam and MIRI imaging mosaics that map emission from the main shell, interior, and surrounding circumstellar/interstellar material (CSM/ISM). We also present four exploratory positions of MIRI Medium Resolution Spectrograph integral field unit spectroscopy that sample ejecta, CSM, and associated dust from representative shocked and unshocked regions. Surprising discoveries include (1) a weblike network of unshocked ejecta filaments resolved to ~0.01 pc scales exhibiting an overall morphology consistent with turbulent mixing of cool, low-entropy matter from the progenitor's oxygen layer with hot, high-entropy matter heated by neutrino interactions and radioactivity; (2) a thick sheet of dust-dominated emission from shocked CSM seen in projection toward the remnant's interior pockmarked with small (~1'') round holes formed by ≲0$^"_•$1 knots of high-velocity ejecta that have pierced through the CSM and driven expanding tangential shocks; and (3) dozens of light echoes with angular sizes between ~0$^"_•$1 and 1' reflecting previously unseen fine-scale structure in the ISM. NIRCam observations place new upper limits on infrared emission (≲20 nJy at 3 μm) from the neutron star in Cas A's center and tightly constrain scenarios involving a possible fallback disk. These JWST survey data and initial findings help address unresolved questions about massive star explosions that have broad implications for the formation and evolution of stellar populations, the metal and dust enrichment of galaxies, and the origin of compact remnant objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

EP 250108a/SN 2025kg: Observations of the Most Nearby Broad-line Type Ic Supernova Following an Einstein Probe Fast X-Ray Transient

With a small sample of fast X-ray transients (FXTs) with multiwavelength counterparts discovered to date, their progenitors and connections to γ-ray bursts (GRBs) and supernovae (SNe) remain ambiguous. Here, we present photometric and spectroscopic observations of SN 2025kg, the SN counterpart to the FXT EP 250108a. At z = 0.17641, this is the closest known SN discovered following an Einstein Probe (EP) FXT. We show that SN 2025kg’s optical spectra reveal the hallmark features of a broad-lined Type Ic SN. Its light-curve evolution and expansion velocities are comparable to those of GRB-SNe, including SN 1998bw, and two past FXT-SNe. We present JWST/NIRSpec spectroscopy taken around SN 2025kg’s maximum light, and find weak absorption due to He I 1.0830 μm and 2.0581 μm and a broad, unidentified emission feature at ∼4–4.5 μm. Further, we observe broadened Hα in optical data at 42.5 days that is not detected at other epochs, indicating interaction with H-rich material. From its light curve, we derive a 56 Ni mass of 0.2–0.6 M ⊙ . Together with our companion Letter, our broadband data are consistent with a trapped or low-energy (≲10 51 erg) jet-driven explosion from a collapsar with a zero-age main-sequence mass of 15–30 M ⊙ . Finally, we show that the sample of EP FXT-SNe supports past estimates that low-luminosity jets seen through FXTs are more common than successful (GRB) jets, and that similar FXT-like signatures are likely present in at least a few percent of the brightest Type Ic-BL SNe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Strontium-84 Enrichments in Presolar Grains Provide First Evidence of p -process Nucleosynthesis in Core-collapse Supernovae

This study reports detection of rare p-process isotopes within presolar grains. Presolar grains are relic dust grains from dying stars. These microscopic dust particles are found in primitive solar system materials. Their distinct isotopic compositions record the nucleosynthetic processes in their parent stars and the Galactic chemical environment in which these stars formed. We studied presolar graphite grains of high-density type from the Murchison meteorite and found five grains with subgrains that show enrichments in 84 Sr compared to the solar abundance. 84 Sr is the neutron-deficient isotope of strontium that can be produced in the deep oxygen-rich interior of high-mass stars that end their lives as core-collapse supernovae. The observed 84 Sr excesses cannot be produced in low-mass asymptotic giant branch stars, the source of most high-density presolar graphites found in meteorites. High-density graphites with embedded 84 Sr excesses are, instead, compatible with a core-collapse supernovae origin. The graphite subgrains condensed from carbon-rich materials in the outer layers of core-collapse supernovae, where 84 Sr was destroyed by neutron captures during hydrostatic evolution of the stars and their final explosion. Based on current theoretical stellar models, a few percent of contribution from the inner regions of core-collapse supernovae, which are enriched in p-process nuclides, to the outer carbon-rich regions is the most likely explanation for the observed enrichment of 84 Sr in the subgrains of the high-density graphites. In this study, we present the first observational evidence that core-collapse supernovae produce and eject isotopes made by the p-process.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations

Stratospheric aerosols, most of which originate from explosive volcanic sulfur emissions into the stratosphere, are a key natural driver of climate variability. They are thus a forcing provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Forcings Task Team to climate modelling groups participating in phase 7 of CMIP. For the historical period, we provide two datasets covering 1750–2023: (i) a volcanic upper tropospheric-stratospheric sulfur emission dataset, documented in a companion paper; and (ii) a stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical property dataset, documented in this paper. For the satellite era (from 1979 onwards), stratospheric aerosol optical properties are derived from the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) dataset. For the pre-satellite era (1750–1978), optical properties are derived from our volcanic SO 2 emission dataset using a new version of the reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model Easy Volcanic Aerosol (Height) (EVA_H v2). A background, non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1998–2001 period with a trend over 1850–1978 accounting for increasing anthropogenic aerosols. A monthly stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1850–2021 average for both pre-industrial and scenario (future) simulations, with a 9-year ramp over 2022–2030 for scenario simulations to ensure a smooth transition from the historical period. CMIP7 simulations should use version 2.2.1 of our pre-industrial and historical datasets, and version 2.2.2 of our scenario dataset. Our methodology to produce historical aerosol optical properties significantly differs from CMIP6 for the pre-satellite era, and the resulting forcings in turn largely differ. In particular, the CMIP6 dataset was mostly based on the sparse and uncertain pyrheliometer record, which resulted in strongly underrepresented emissions from small-to-moderate magnitude eruptions. The resulting bias is addressed in CMIP7, which is entirely emission-derived in the pre-satellite era and uses more recent ice-core-based volcanic sulfur emission inventories than CMIP6. Our approach results in an overall larger volcanic aerosol forcing for CMIP7, with the 1850–2014 mean mid-visible global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) in CMIP7 (0.0138) being 29 % higher than in CMIP6 (0.0107). The pre-industrial mean of the same variable is 26 % higher in CMIP7 (0.0135, derived from the historical 1850–2021) than CMIP6 (0.0107, derived from the historical 1850–2014 mean). Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we simulate a global mean surface temperature that is 0.07 °C colder for 1850–1900 when using the CMIP7 dataset instead of CMIP6, whereas 2000–2014 is 0.03 °C warmer in CMIP7. Our dataset also exhibits lower forcing for 1960–1980, resulting in temperatures 0.06 °C warmer when averaged over 1960–1990, a period for which CMIP6 climate models exhibit a cold bias. Given the large uncertainties characterizing the dataset, in particular for the pre-satellite era, we advise against treating the CMIP7 or CMIP6 dataset as uniquely superior for any specific year and highlight the need for further evaluation. We conclude the study by discussing sources of uncertainty for the dataset, future research avenues to improve it, as well as requirements to operationalize the production of the dataset, i.e. extend it and update it on an annual basis instead of every 5–7 years following CMIP cycles.

Aubry, Thomas J. [Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United K↗