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At least 523 records · Page 29

Beyond Population and Environment: Household Life Cycle Demography and Land Use Allocation among Small Farm Colonists in the Amazon

Most research featuring demographic factors in environmental change has focused on processes operating at the level of national or global populations. This paper focuses on household-level demographic life cycles among colonists in the Amazon, and evaluates the impacts on land use allocation. The analysis goes beyond prior research by including a broader suite of demographic variables, and by simultaneously assessing their impacts on multiple land uses with different economic and ecological implications. We estimate a system of structural equations that accounts for endogeneity among land uses, and the findings indicate stronger demographic effects than previous work. These findings bear implications for modeling land use, and the place of demography in environmental research.

Perz, Stephen G.↗

Reduced streamflow in water-stressed climates consistent with CO 2 effects on vegetation

Global environmental change has implications for the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources, but quantifying its effects remains a challenge. The impact of vegetation responses to increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations on the hydrologic cycle is particularly poorly constrained. In this study, we combine remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data and long-term water-balance evapotranspiration (ET) measurements from 190 unimpaired river basins across Australia during 1982-2010 to show that the precipitation threshold for water limitation of vegetation cover has significantly declined during the past three decades, whereas sub-humid and semi-arid basins are not only greening but also consuming more water, leading to significant (24-28%) reductions in streamflow. In contrast, wet and arid basins show nonsignificant changes in NDVI and reductions in ET. These observations are consistent with expected effects of elevated CO 2 on vegetation. Finally, they suggest that projected future decreases in precipitation are likely to be compounded by increased vegetation water use, further reducing streamflow in water-stressed regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Abrupt climate change and extinction events

There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.

Crowley, Thomas J.↗

Impact of COVID-19-related Air Traffic Reductions on the Coverage and Radiative Effects of Linear Persistent Contrails over Conterminous United States and Surrounding Oceanic Routes

The radiative effects of the large-scale air traffic slowdown during Apr and May 2020 due to the international response to the COVID-19 pandemic are estimated by comparing the coverage (CC), optical properties, and radiative forcing of persistent linear contrails over the conterminous United States and two surrounding oceanic air corridors during the slowdown period and a similar baseline period during 2018 and 2019 when air traffic was unrestricted. The detected CC during the slowdown period decreased by an area-averaged mean of 41% for the three analysis boxes. The retrieved contrail optical properties were mostly similar for both periods. Total shortwave contrail radiative forcings during the slowdown were 34 and 42% smaller for Terra and Aqua, respectively. The corresponding differences for longwave contrail radiative forcing were 33% for Terra and 40% for Aqua. To account for the impact of any changes in the atmospheric environment between baseline and slowdown periods on detected CC amounts, the contrail formation potential (CFP) was computed from reanalysis data. In addition, a filtered CFP (fCFP) was also developed to account for factors that may affect contrail formation and visibility of persistent contrails in satellite imagery. The CFP and fCFP were combined with air traffic density data to create empirical models that estimated CC during the baseline and slowdown periods and were compared to the detected CC. The models confirm that decreases in CC and radiative forcing during the slowdown period were mostly due to the reduction in air traffic, and partly due to environmental changes.

contrails↗

CLMcrop yields and water requirements: avoided impacts by choosing RCP 4.5 over 8.5

Here, we perform CLMcrop simulations of the 20th and 21st centuries to assess potential avoided impacts in (a) crop yield losses and (b) water demand increases if humanity were to choose the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 instead of 8.5. RCP 8.5 imposes more extreme climatic changes on CLMcrop, while simultaneously exposing the crops to higher CO2 fertilization than RCP 4.5. As a result CLMcrop simulates global to regional scale changes in yield and water requirements for RCP 8.5 that exceed and sometimes more than double the RCP 4.5 changes relative to today. Under RCP 4.5 then, human societies may confront easier adaptation to changes in crop yields and water requirements. Under both RCPs, CLMcrop projects declining global yields for C3 crops (e.g., wheat, soybean, rice) without CO 2 fertilization and C4 crops (corn, sugarcane) without irrigation. Yield declines of 3 t ha -1 stand out in parts of tropical and subtropical Africa and South America (presently areas of rapid agricultural expansion) and are due to increasing plant respiration and decreasing soil moisture, both due to rising temperatures. Irrigation and CO 2 fertilization mitigate yield losses and in some cases lead to gains, so irrigation may help maintain or increase current yields through the 21st century. However, simulated global irrigation requirements increase: as much as 23 % for C4 crops without CO 2 fertilization under RCP 8.5 and as little as 3 % for C4 crops with CO 2 fertilization under RCP4.5. Nitrogen fertilized crops display greater vulnerability to climate and environmental change than unfertilized crops in our simulations; still relative to unfertilized crops, they deliver significantly higher yields and remain indispensable in supporting a more populous and affluent humanity. These CLMcrop results broadly agree with previously published outcomes for the 21st century. We describe in this article a new version of CLMcrop that represents prognostic crop behavior not only in the mid-latitudes but also the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Genomic insights into redox-driven microbial processes for carbon decomposition in thawing Arctic soils and permafrost

Climate change is rapidly transforming Arctic landscapes where increasing soil temperatures speed up permafrost thaw. This exposes large carbon stocks to microbial decomposition, possibly worsening climate change by releasing more greenhouse gases. Understanding how microbes break down soil carbon, especially under the anaerobic conditions of thawing permafrost, is important to determine future changes. Here, we studied the microbial community dynamics and soil carbon decomposition potential in permafrost and active layer soils under anaerobic laboratory conditions that simulated an Arctic summer thaw. The microbial and viral compositions in the samples were analyzed based on metagenomes, metagenome-assembled genomes, and metagenomic viral contigs (mVCs). Following the thawing of permafrost, there was a notable shift in microbial community structure, with fermentative Firmicutes and Bacteroidota taking over from Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria over the 60-day incubation period. The increase in iron and sulfate-reducing microbes had a significant role in limiting methane production from thawed permafrost, underscoring the competition within microbial communities. We explored the growth strategies of microbial communities and found that slow growth was the major strategy in both the active layer and permafrost. Our findings challenge the assumption that fast-growing microbes mainly respond to environmental changes like permafrost thaw. Instead, they indicate a common strategy of slow growth among microbial communities, likely due to the thermodynamic constraints of soil substrates and electron acceptors, and the need for microbes to adjust to post-thaw conditions. The mVCs harbored a wide range of auxiliary metabolic genes that may support cell protection from ice formation in virus-infected cells.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Processing Tomato Production Is Expected to Decrease By 2050 Due to the Projected Increase in Temperature

The global processing tomato production is concentrated in a small number of regions where climate change will have a significant impact on the future supply. Process-based tomato models project that the production in the three main producing countries (the United States, Italy, and China, representing 65% of global production) will decrease 6% by 2050, compared to the baseline period of 1980-2009. The predicted reduction in processing tomato production is due to a simulated increase in air temperature. Under an ensemble of projected climate scenarios, California and Italy might not be able to sustain the current levels of processing tomato production due to water resources constraints. Cooler producing regions, such as China and the northern parts of California, stand to improve their competitive advantage. The projected environmental changes indicate that the main growing regions of processing tomatoes might change in the coming decades.

Tomato production↗

Building a better foundation: improving root-trait measurements to understand and model plant and ecosystem processes

Trait-based approaches provide a useful framework to investigate plant strategies for resource acquisition, growth, and competition, as well as plant impacts on ecosystem processes. Despite significant progress capturing trait variation within and among stems and leaves, identification of trait syndromes within fine-root systems and between fine roots and other plant organs is limited. Here we discuss three underappreciated areas where focused measurements of fine-root traits can make significant contributions to ecosystem science. These include assessment of spatiotemporal variation in fine-root traits, integration of mycorrhizal fungi into fine-root-trait frameworks, and the need for improved scaling of traits measured on individual roots to ecosystem-level processes. Progress in each of these areas is providing opportunities to revisit how below-ground processes are represented in terrestrial biosphere models. Targeted measurements of fine-root traits with clear linkages to ecosystem processes and plant responses to environmental change are strongly needed to reduce empirical and model uncertainties. Further identifying how and when suites of root and whole-plant traits are coordinated or decoupled will ultimately provide a powerful tool for modeling plant form and function at local and global scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing sustainability in agricultural landscapes: a review of approaches

Research and development agencies, as well as policy makers and agri-food enterprises, need reliable data to support informed decisions that can improve the sustainability of agricultural landscapes. We present a review of agricultural sustainability assessment frameworks (ASAF) that identifies the features most relevant to monitoring progress towards sustainability goals for agricultural landscapes. This qualitative review considers a variety of approaches for defining goals and for selecting stakeholders, spatial and temporal boundaries, indicators, and analytical approaches. We focused on assessment frameworks that ( i ) include environmental, social, and economic implications of agriculture; ( ii ) are applicable to multiple, non-specified farm system types; ( iii ) are described in an English language, peer-reviewed publication; ( iv ) have been developed for use at a farm system to regional spatial scale; ( v ) engage stakeholders; ( vi ) provide case studies; and ( vii ) could be used in a variety of contexts across the globe. Based on the review, we provide recommendations for further development and use of assessment frameworks to better address the needs of agricultural research, extension, and development organizations. We recommend an agro-ecosystem approach to help stakeholders identify appropriate indicators for their situation. Assessment methods need to be flexible enough for adaptation to a spectrum of agricultural landscapes and changing environmental conditions, and remain relevant as farmers and other stakeholders acquire new information, resources, and different management techniques. We find that to address information gaps across different scales from farm to region will require creativity and some reliance on local knowledge systems to support adaptive management. Assessment results should communicate relationships among ecosystem services and socio-economic activities affected by agricultural landscapes. Furthermore visualization tools can facilitate understanding of trade-offs and synergies among sustainability goals as reflected by individual indicators.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scale-dependent enhancement of productivity and stability in xenic Nannochloropsis cultures

Although bacterial amendments can enhance algal productivity and stability, the development of algal-bacteria consortia for commercial-scale utilization is limited. Here, for this work, we used an established high-throughput approach to generate algal-bacteria consortia, and tested consortia performance at spatial scales from microplates to 320 L raceway ponds. We used both lab and field-reared strains of Nannochloropsis oceanica to build consortia. In some experiments, we imposed environmental perturbations to test the ability of bacteria to enhance algal culture stability. In repeated assays at the scale of well plates, flasks, and bioreactors, strong effects of bacterial amendments on N. oceanica were observed. These effects were most dramatic when cultures experienced stressors such as temperature perturbations or removal of CO 2 augmentation. Isolates that were advanced for field testing included species in the genera Algoriphagus, Oceanicaulis, and Marinobacter. When consortia were generated in the field, positive effects of bacterial amendments were not observed. The amended bacteria were outcompeted, and bacterial community composition across treatments converged after the first grow out. These results highlight the complexity of using consortia in open systems, where interactions between the existing bacterial community, inoculated bacteria, and changing environmental conditions are layered upon other differences in scale and cultivation regimes. Moreover, functionally redundant bacteria are likely present in the field. Following this work, we hypothesize that tight interactions (e.g., obligate relationships between partners) will scale more predictably to outdoor systems. We suggest relying on true synthetic ecological approaches in which the relationships between bacteria and algae partners are well understood, or synthetic ecological approaches coupled with high throughput approaches to design and test consortia. We also recommend future work to examine the effect of algae-bacteria inoculation ratios on productivity and stability, track dynamics of partners through time, and manage ponds to retain beneficial symbioses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Genotype–environment associations across spatial scales reveal the importance of putative adaptive genetic variation in divergence

Abstract Identifying areas of high evolutionary potential is a judicious strategy for developing conservation priorities in the face of environmental change. For wide‐ranging species occupying heterogeneous environments, the evolutionary forces that shape distinct populations can vary spatially. Here, we investigate patterns of genomic variation and genotype–environment associations in the hermit thrush ( Catharus guttatus ), a North American songbird, at broad (across the breeding range) and narrow spatial scales (at a hybrid zone). We begin by building a genoscape or map of genetic variation across the breeding range and find five distinct genetic clusters within the species, with the greatest variation occurring in the western portion of the range. Genotype–environment association analyses indicate higher allelic turnover in the west than in the east, with measures of temperature surfacing as key predictors of putative adaptive genomic variation rangewide. Since broad patterns detected across a species' range represent the aggregate of many locally adapted populations, we investigate whether our broadscale analysis is consistent with a finer scale analysis. We find that top rangewide temperature‐associated loci vary in their clinal patterns (e.g., steep clines vs. fixed allele frequencies) across a hybrid zone in British Columbia, suggesting that the environmental predictors and the associated candidate loci identified in the rangewide analysis are of variable importance in this particular region. However, two candidate loci exhibit strong concordance with the temperature gradient in British Columbia, suggesting a potential role for temperature‐related barriers to gene flow and/or temperature‐driven ecological selection in maintaining putative local adaptation. This study demonstrates how patterns identified at the broad (macrogeographic) scale can be validated by investigating genotype–environment correlations at the local (microgeographic) scale. Furthermore, our results highlight the importance of considering the spatial distribution of putative adaptive variation when assessing population‐level sensitivity to climate change and other stressors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Subsurface Biogeochemical Variability in a High Altitude Watershed During Winter Isolation

Shallow subsurface microbial and geochemical processes in watersheds are dynamic and responsive to seasonal and long-term environmental change. At high elevation or latitude, such changes may occur during winter months when normal sampling is impossible, impractical, unsafe, or may actually alter the processes being studied. Yet accurate modeling of biogeochemical parameters in these environments requires sampling that can capture events and persistent cold climate trends. Gaps in current models exist where data have not been collected during extended snow- or ice-covered periods. The goals of our exploratory study were to examine the biogeochemical processes occurring in a well-studied high altitude watershed during winter when the system is largely inaccessible. We tested the hypothesis that during snow cover in the East River (ER) watershed, episodic excursions of microbial community structure and biogeochemical processes and concentrations fluctuated from values extrapolated from pre- and post-snow time periods. Through our research we identified previously unresolved subsurface-surface transport phenomena and a heretofore under-appreciated methane cycle occurring during wintertime months, thus providing valuable insight into watershed processes. Our research showed that autonomous sampling techniques, first used in marine systems, is extremely versatile and can be adapted for use in harsh continental settings to examine temporal changes in freshwater chemistry and microbial community assemblage. Further, we found that by sampling during periods when systems are hard to access, will lend insight and better accountability for global budgets for methane, an important greenhouse gas. By strengthening our knowledge of wintertime biogeochemical relationships in high altitude watersheds our research leads to more complete descriptions of cryptic processes and ultimately will inform and improve the reactive transport models that simulate processes in these systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A comprehensive data acquisition and management system for an ecosystem-scale peatland warming and elevated CO 2 experiment

Ecosystem-scale manipulation experiments represent large science investments that require well-designed data acquisition and management systems to provide reliable, accurate information to project participants and third party users. The SPRUCE project (Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change, http://mnspruce.ornl.gov ) is such an experiment funded by the Department of Energy's (DOE), Office of Science, Terrestrial Ecosystem Science (TES) Program. The SPRUCE experimental mission is to assess ecosystem-level biological responses of vulnerable, high carbon terrestrial ecosystems to a range of climate warming manipulations and an elevated CO 2 atmosphere. SPRUCE provides a platform for testing mechanisms controlling the vulnerability of organisms, biogeochemical processes, and ecosystems to climatic change (e.g., thresholds for organism decline or mortality, limitations to regeneration, biogeochemical limitations to productivity, and the cycling and release of CO 2 and CH 4 to the atmosphere). The SPRUCE experiment will generate a wide range of continuous and discrete measurements. In order to successfully manage SPRUCE data collection, achieve SPRUCE science objectives, and support broader climate change research, the research staff has designed a flexible data system using proven network technologies and software components. The primary SPRUCE data system components are the following; 1. data acquisition and control system – set of hardware and software to retrieve biological and engineering data from sensors, collect sensor status information, and distribute feedback to control components; 2. data collection system – set of hardware and software to deliver data to a central depository for storage and further processing; and 3. data management plan – set of plans, policies, and practices to control consistency, protect data integrity, and deliver data. This publication presents our approach to meeting the challenges of designing and constructing an efficient data system for managing high volume sources of in situ observations in a remote, harsh environmental location. Finally, the approach covers data flow starting from the sensors and ending at the archival/distribution points, discusses types of hardware and software used, examines design considerations that were used to choose them, and describes the data management practices chosen to control and enhance the value of the data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Molecular Mechanism of Action of the Cyanobacterial Orange Carotenoid Protein

All photosynthetic organisms contain a light-harvesting antenna system, which expands the solar spectrum utilization and supplies excitations to reaction center complexes where photochemistry takes place and the energy is stored ultimately in reduced carbon of biomass. Photosynthetic antenna complexes are extremely diverse, both in terms of structural organization and type of pigment utilized. Equally diverse are the photoprotection mechanisms through which the excitation energy transfer from light harvesting complexes to the reaction centers is modulated to cope with fluctuating light and other environmental conditions. This project centers on the Orange Carotenoid Protein (OCP) that is found in cyanobacteria and quenches excited states in the phycobilisome (PBS) antenna complex. The OCP is a soluble photoactive protein and the first identified photoactive protein that binds a carotenoid molecule as the pigment. The OCP is found in an inactive orange form in the dark but is converted into a red form by excess light. The red form binds to the PBS and quenches excited states of the bilin chromophores, providing photoprotection. The goal of this research project is to give us a much-improved understanding of the photoactivation and mechanism of action of this important photoprotection process at the molecular level and also improve our understanding of its physiological roles in cyanobacterial adaptation to changing environmental conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2

Abstract. The potential for multiyear prediction of impactful Earth system change remains relatively underexplored compared to shorter (subseasonal to seasonal) and longer (decadal) timescales. In this study, we introduce a new initialized prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) that is specifically designed to probe potential and actual prediction skill at lead times ranging from 1 month out to 2 years. The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) consists of a collection of 2-year-long hindcast simulations, with four initializations per year from 1970 to 2019 and an ensemble size of 20. A full suite of output is available for exploring near-term predictability of all Earth system components represented in CESM2. We show that SMYLE skill for El Niño–Southern Oscillation is competitive with other prominent seasonal prediction systems, with correlations exceeding 0.5 beyond a lead time of 12 months. A broad overview of prediction skill reveals varying degrees of potential for useful multiyear predictions of seasonal anomalies in the atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice. The SMYLE dataset, experimental design, model, initial conditions, and associated analysis tools are all publicly available, providing a foundation for research on multiyear prediction of environmental change by the wider community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Changes in root architecture under elevated concentrations of CO 2 and nitrogen reflect alternate soil exploration strategies

Summary Predicting the response of fine roots to increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration has important implications for carbon (C) and nutrient cycling in forest ecosystems. Root architecture is known to play an important role in how trees acquire soil resources in changing environments. However, the effects of elevated CO 2 on the fine‐root architecture of trees remain unclear. We investigated the architectural response of fine roots exposed to 14 yr of CO 2 enrichment and 6 yr of nitrogen (N) fertilization in a Pinus taeda (loblolly pine) forest. Root traits reflecting geometry, topology and uptake function were measured on intact fine‐root branches removed from soil monoliths and the litter layer. CO 2 enrichment resulted in the development of a fine‐root pool that was less dichotomous and more exploratory under N‐limited conditions. The per cent mycorrhizal colonization did not differ among treatments, suggesting that root growth and acclimation to elevated CO 2 were quantitatively more important than increased mycorrhizal associations. Our findings emphasize the importance of architectural plasticity in response to environmental change and suggest that changes in root architecture may allow trees to effectively exploit larger volumes of soil, thereby pre‐empting progressive nutrient limitations.

Beidler, Katilyn V.↗

Multispectral UAV imagery of experimental freshwater wetlands under 5 ppt saltwater intrusion, Louisiana, 2023 and 2024

Multispectral imagery was collected using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to evaluate how freshwater vegetation responds to short-term simulated saltwater intrusion events. The purpose of this data collection was to understand how plant health changes in response to acute salinity exposure, which is increasingly relevant in coastal wetland ecosystems facing sea level rise and storm surge events, such as in coastal Louisiana. Three experimental saltwater intrusions were conducted at a salinity of approximately 5 parts per thousand (ppt) for durations of 6-days, 10-days, and 17-days. UAV flights occurred both before and after each treatment. The resulting imagery was processed using Pix4DMapper software to georeference the images and generate orthomosaics. The multispectral sensor used in this study captures reflectance in five bands: blue, green, red, red-edge, and near-infrared. The uploaded data consist of georeferenced .tif orthomosaics for each spectral band, which are compatible with GIS software for vegetation analysis. This imagery can be utilized in investigations into vegetation stress, remote sensing of freshwater wetland ecosystems, and modeling of plant response to environmental changes.

EARTH SCIENCE > BIOSPHERE > ECOSYSTEMS↗

Space-Based Ornithology: On the Wings of Migration and Biophysics

Understanding bird migration and avian biodiversity is one of the most compelling and challenging problems of modern biology with major implications for human health and conservation biology. Migration and conservation efforts cross national boundaries and are subject to numerous international agreements and treaties. Public interest is high with concerns about avian flu, Katrina and its impacts, and the recent sightings of the ivory-billed woodpecker. Space based technology gives us new opportunities to shed light on the distribution and movement of organisms on the planet and their sensitivity to human disturbances and environmental changes. Together with the USGS and other agencies, we are creating ecological forecasting tools for science and application users to address the consequences of loss of wetlands, flooding, drought or other natural disasters such as hurricanes on avian biodiversity and bird migration. In our work, we use individual organism biophysical models of energy and water balance and drive these models with satellite measurements of spatio-temporal gradients in climate and habitat. Dynamic state variable modeling provides an additional tool for studying bird migration across multiple scales and can be linked to our mechanistic models describing the time and energy budget states of migrating birds. Such models yield an understanding of how a migratory flyway and its component habitats function as a whole and link stop-over ecology with biological conservation and management. We also build upon the canopy done by the Environmental Laboratory over the past few years.

Smith, James A.↗