Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Estimation method”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Toward Complete Leading-Order Predictions for Neutrinoless Double β Decay

The amplitude for the neutrinoless double β (0νββ) decay of the two-neutron system nn → ppe – e – constitutes a key building block for nuclear-structure calculations of heavy nuclei employed in large-scale 0νββ searches. Assuming that the 0νββ process is mediated by a light-Majorana-neutrino exchange, a systematic analysis in chiral effective field theory shows that already at leading order a contact operator is required to ensure renormalizability. Here, we develop a method to estimate the numerical value of its coefficient (in analogy to the Cottingham formula for electromagnetic contributions to hadron masses) and validate the result by reproducing the charge-independence-breaking contribution to the nucleon-nucleon scattering lengths. Our central result, while derived in dimensional regularization, is given in terms of the renormalized amplitude Aν(|p|, |p'|) , matching to which will allow one to determine the contact-term contribution in regularization schemes employed in nuclear-structure calculations. Our results thus greatly reduce a crucial uncertainty in the interpretation of searches for 0νββ decay.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards the extraction of the crystal cell parameters from pair distribution function profiles

The approach based on atomic pair distribution function (PDF) has revolutionized structural investigations by X-ray/electron diffraction of nano or quasi-amorphous materials, opening up the possibility of exploring short-range order. However, the ab initio crystal structural solution by the PDF is far from being achieved due to the difficulty in determining the crystallographic properties of the unit cell. A method for estimating the crystal cell parameters directly from a PDF profile is presented, which is composed of two steps: first, the type of crystal cell is inferred using machine-learning approaches applied to the PDF profile; second, the crystal cell parameters are extracted by means of multivariate analysis combined with vector superposition techniques. The procedure has been validated on a large number of PDF profiles calculated from known crystal structures and on a small number of measured PDF profiles. The lattice determination step has been benchmarked by a comprehensive exploration of different classifiers and different input data. The highest performance is obtained using the k -nearest neighbours classifier applied to whole PDF profiles. Descriptors calculated from the PDF profiles by recurrence quantitative analysis produce results that can be interpreted in terms of PDF properties, and the significance of each descriptor in determining the prediction is evaluated. The cell parameter extraction step depends on the cell metric rather than its type. Monometric, dimetric and trimetric cells have top-1 estimates that are correct 40, 20 and 5% of the time, respectively. Promising results were obtained when analysing real nanocrystals, where unit cells close to the true ones are found within the top-1 ranked solution in the case of monometric cells and within the top-6 ranked solutions in the case of dimetric cells, even in the presence of a crystalline impurity with a weight fraction up to 40%.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Virtual Synchronous Generator Control of Multi-port Autonomous Reconfigurable Solar Plants (MARS)

Multi-port autonomous reconfigurable solar power plant (MARS) is an integrated concept for integration of solar photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage systems (ESS) to transmission alternating current (ac) grid and high-voltage direct current (HVdc) links. The integrated development incorporates advanced control methods to provide enhanced grid ancillary services such as fast frequency responses and dynamic voltage support. In this paper, the virtual synchronous generator (VSG) control algorithm of MARS is discussed. The proposed VSG-based control enables enhanced synthetic inertial response and flexible frequency response characteristics of hybrid PV and ESS power plants in accordance with grid ancillary service requirements. Multi-port power electronics interface allows controlled emergency power support from MARS to local transmission ac grid and remote grid through the HVdc link. The performance of VSG control is validated using a reduced-order model of MARS in Simulink. Methods for estimating grid ancillary service capabilities of MARS are also discussed.

Pan, Jiuping↗
DOE OSTI2021

Penetration Through Slots in Overmoded Cavities

A resonant cavity undergoes three distinct behaviors with increasing frequency: 1) fundamental modes, localized in frequency with well defined modal distribution; 2) undermoded region, where modes are still separated, but are sufficiently perturbed by small imperfections that their spectral positions (and distributions) are statistical in nature; and 3) overmoded region, where modes overlap, field distributions follow stochastic distributions, and the slot acts as if in free space. Understanding the penetration through slots in the overmoded region is of great interest, and is the focus of this article. Since full-wave solvers may not be able to provide a timely answer for very high frequencies due to a lack of memory and/or computation resources, we develop bounding methods to estimate worst-case average and maximum fields within the cavity. Finally, after discussing the bounding formulation, we compare its results to full-wave simulations at the first, second, and third resonance supported by the slot in the case of a cylindrical cavity. Note that the bounding formulation indicates that results are nearly independent of cavity shape: only the cavity volume, frequency, and cavity quality factor affect the overmoded region, making this formulation a powerful tool to assess electromagnetic interference and electromagnetic compatibility effects within cavities.

overmoded cavity↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Buried Object Brightness and Visibility for Ground Penetrating Radar

Comparing the observed brightness of various buried objects is a straightforward way to characterize the performance of a ground penetrating radar (GPR) system. However, a limitation arises. A simple comparison of buried object brightness values does not disentangle the effects of the GPR system itself from the system's operating environment and the objects being observed. Therefore, with brightness values exhibiting an unknown synthesis of systemic, environmental, and object factors, GPR system analysis becomes a convoluted affair. In this work, we use an experimentally collected dataset of over 25,000 object observations from five different multistatic radar arrays to develop models of buried object brightness and control for these various effects. Additionally, our modeling efforts provide a means for quantifying the relative brightness of GPR systems, the objects they detect, and the physical properties of those objects that influence observed brightness. To evaluate the models' performance on new object observations, we repeatedly simulate fitting them to half the dataset and predicting the observed brightness values of the unseen half. In addition, we introduce a method for estimating the probability that individual observations constitute a visible object, which aids in failure analysis, performance characterization, and dataset cleaning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ocelot: An Interactive, Efficient Distributed Compression-As-a-Service Platform With Optimized Data Compression Techniques

Large volumes of data generated by scientific simulations, genome sequencing, and other applications need to be moved among clusters for data collection/analysis. Data compression techniques have effectively reduced data storage and transfer costs. However, users' requirements on interactively controlling both data quality and compression ratios are non-trivial to fulfill. Here, we propose a novel Compression-as-a-Service (CaaS) platform called Ocelot with four important contributions: (1) It offers real-time visualization, interactive compression, and transfer of scientific datasets. (2) It incorporates new strategies for compressing diverse types of datasets more effectively than traditional methods. (3) It provides an effective method for estimating the compression ratio and execution time of compression tasks. (4) Experiments on multiple real-world datasets on geographically distributed computers show that Ocelot can significantly improve data transfer efficiency with a performance gain of more than 10x in computing clusters with relatively slow networks.

compression as a service (CaaS)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Continental Scale Hydrostratigraphy: Comparing Geologically Informed Data Products to Analytical Solutions

Abstract This study synthesizes two different methods for estimating hydraulic conductivity (K) at large scales. We derive analytical approaches that estimate K and apply them to the contiguous United States. We then compare these analytical approaches to three‐dimensional, national gridded K data products and three transmissivity (T) data products developed from publicly available sources. We evaluate these data products using multiple approaches: comparing their statistics qualitatively and quantitatively and with hydrologic model simulations. Some of these datasets were used as inputs for an integrated hydrologic model of the Upper Colorado River Basin and the comparison of the results with observations was used to further evaluate the K data products. Simulated average daily streamflow was compared to daily flow data from 10 USGS stream gages in the domain, and annually averaged simulated groundwater depths are compared to observations from nearly 2000 monitoring wells. We find streamflow predictions from analytically informed simulations to be similar in relative bias and Spearman's rho to the geologically informed simulations. R ‐squared values for groundwater depth predictions are close between the best performing analytically and geologically informed simulations at 0.68 and 0.70 respectively, with RMSE values under 10 m. We also show that the analytical approach derived by this study produces estimates of K that are similar in spatial distribution, standard deviation, mean value, and modeling performance to geologically‐informed estimates. The results of this work are used to inform a follow‐on study that tests additional data‐driven approaches in multiple basins within the contiguous United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Discrete-Direct Model Calibration and Uncertainty Propagation Method Confirmed on Multi-Parameter Plasticity Model Calibrated to Sparse Random Field Data

A discrete direct (DD) model calibration and uncertainty propagation approach is explained and demonstrated on a 4-parameter Johnson-Cook (J-C) strain-rate dependent material strength model for an aluminum alloy. The methodology's performance is characterized in many trials involving four random realizations of strain-rate dependent material-test data curves per trial, drawn from a large synthetic population. The J-C model is calibrated to particular combinations of the data curves to obtain calibration parameter sets which are then propagated to “Can Crush” structural model predictions to produce samples of predicted response variability. These are processed with appropriate sparse-sample uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to estimate various statistics of response with an appropriate level of conservatism. This is tested on 16 output quantities (von Mises stresses and equivalent plastic strains) and it is shown that important statistics of the true variabilities of the 16 quantities are bounded with a high success rate that is reasonably predictable and controllable. The DD approach has several advantages over other calibration-UQ approaches like Bayesian inference for capturing and utilizing the information obtained from typically small numbers of replicate experiments in model calibration situations—especially when sparse replicate functional data are involved like force–displacement curves from material tests. The DD methodology is straightforward and efficient for calibration and propagation problems involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in calibration experiments, models, and procedures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coexistent quantum channel characterization using quantum process tomography with spectrally resolved detection

The coexistence of classical and quantum signals over the same optical fiber is critical for quantum networks operating within the existing communications infrastructure. Here, we characterize the quantum channel that results from distributing approximate single-photon polarization-encoded qubits simultaneously with classical light of varying intensities through a 25 km fiber-optic channel. We use spectrally resolved quantum process tomography with a newly developed Bayesian reconstruction method to estimate the quantum channel from experimental data, both with and without classical noise. Furthermore, we show that the coexistent fiber-based quantum channel has high process fidelity with an ideal depolarizing channel if the noise is dominated by Raman scattering. These results aid future development of quantum repeater designs and quantum error-correcting codes which benefit from realistic channel error models.

Chapman, Joseph↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning–based extreme event attribution

The observed increase in extreme weather has prompted recent methodological advances in extreme event attribution. We propose a machine learning–based approach that uses convolutional neural networks to create dynamically consistent counterfactual versions of historical extreme events under different levels of global mean temperature (GMT). We apply this technique to one recent extreme heat event (southcentral North America 2023) and several historical events that have been previously analyzed using established attribution methods. We estimate that temperatures during the southcentral North America event were 1.18° to 1.42°C warmer because of global warming and that similar events will occur 0.14 to 0.60 times per year at 2.0°C above preindustrial levels of GMT. Additionally, we find that the learned relationships between daily temperature and GMT are influenced by the seasonality of the forced temperature response and the daily meteorological conditions. Our results broadly agree with other attribution techniques, suggesting that machine learning can be used to perform rapid, low-cost attribution of extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of the electric potential and the magnetic field in the shifted analysing plane of the KATRIN experiment

The projected sensitivity of the effective electron neutrino-mass measurement with the KATRIN experiment is below 0.3 eV (90 % CL) after 5 years of data acquisition. The sensitivity is affected by the increased rate of the background electrons from KATRIN’s main spectrometer. A special shifted-analysing-plane (SAP) configuration was developed to reduce this background by a factor of two. The complex layout of electromagnetic fields in the SAP configuration requires a robust method of estimating these fields. We present in this paper a dedicated calibration measurement of the fields using conversion electrons of gaseous 83m Kr, which enables the neutrino-mass measurements in the SAP configuration.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

ENnUI : Exemplar Navigator Using Inertial Sensors

SAND2025-04794O ENnUI: Exemplar Navigator Using Inertial Sensors helps users understand and compare different navigation algorithms that rely on inertial sensors. This reference library offers a collection of reference mechanization equations and methods for estimating the position and movement of vehicles over time. Rather than aiming for the highest precision or performance, ENnUI focuses on creating a user-friendly framework that allows users to benchmark their own algorithms against a standard set of tools. It is useful for post-processing data and real-time navigation solutions. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Walker II, Michael [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA),↗
DOE OSTI2022

Radar Retrieval Evaluation and Investigation of Dendritic Growth Layer Polarimetric Signatures in a Winter Storm

Abstract This study evaluates ice particle size distribution and aspect ratio φ Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) dual-polarization radar retrievals through a direct comparison with two legs of observational aircraft data obtained during a winter storm case from the Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) campaign. In situ cloud probes, satellite, and MRMS observations illustrate that the often-observed K dp and Z DR enhancement regions in the dendritic growth layer can either indicate a local number concentration increase of dry ice particles or the presence of ice particles mixed with a significant number of supercooled liquid droplets. Relative to in situ measurements, MRMS retrievals on average underestimated mean volume diameters by 50% and overestimated number concentrations by over 100%. IWC retrievals using Z DR and K dp within the dendritic growth layer were minimally biased relative to in situ calculations where retrievals yielded −2% median relative error for the entire aircraft leg. Incorporating φ retrievals decreased both the magnitude and spread of polarimetric retrievals below the dendritic growth layer. While φ radar retrievals suggest that observed dendritic growth layer particles were nonspherical (0.1 ≤ φ ≤ 0.2), in situ projected aspect ratios, idealized numerical simulations, and habit classifications from cloud probe images suggest that the population mean φ was generally much higher. Coordinated aircraft radar reflectivity with in situ observations suggests that the MRMS systematically underestimated reflectivity and could not resolve local peaks in mean volume diameter sizes. These results highlight the need to consider particle assumptions and radar limitations when performing retrievals. significance statement Developing snow is often detectable using weather radars. Meteorologists combine these radar measurements with mathematical equations to study how snow forms in order to determine how much snow will fall. This study evaluates current methods for estimating the total number and mass, sizes, and shapes of snowflakes from radar using images of individual snowflakes taken during two aircraft legs. Radar estimates of snowflake properties were most consistent with aircraft data inside regions with prominent radar signatures. However, radar estimates of snowflake shapes were not consistent with observed shapes estimated from the snowflake images. Although additional research is needed, these results bolster understanding of snow-growth physics and uncertainties between radar measurements and snow production that can improve future snowfall forecasting.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Economic Valuation of Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) Projections in the United States in Response to Climate Change

Coccidioidomycosis, or valley fever, is an infectious fungal disease currently endemic to the southwestern United States. Symptoms of valley fever range in severity from flu-like illness to severe morbidity and mortality. Warming temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns may cause the area of endemicity to expand northward throughout the western United States, putting more people at risk for contracting valley fever. This may increase the health and economic burdens from this disease. We developed an approach to describe the relationship between climate conditions and valley fever incidence using historical data and generated projections of future incidence in response to both climate change and population trends using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We also developed a method to estimate economic impacts of valley fever that is based on case counts. For our 2000–15 baseline time period, we estimated annual medical costs, lost income, and economic welfare losses for valley fever in the United States were 400,000 USD per case, and the annual average total cost was 3.9 billion USD per year. For a high greenhouse gas emission scenario and accounting for population growth, we found that total annual costs for valley fever may increase up to 164% by year 2050 and up to 380% by 2090. By the end of the twenty-first century, valley fever may cost 620,000 USD per case and the annual average total cost may reach $18.5 billion per year. This work contributes to the broader effort to monetize climate change–attributable damages in the United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimization of a Mixed Fleet of Aerial Drones for Medical Supplies: A Case Study of Blood Delivery Logistics

Aerial drones have emerged as an innovative solution for faster transportation of time-sensitive items (e.g., emergency medical supplies), potentially reducing the transmission of contagious diseases and enhancing healthcare availability through contactless autonomous delivery. We study fleet sizing and efficient scheduling of a mixed fleet of drones for delivering time-sensitive medical items having distinct release and due times to minimize the required fleet size and fleet composition, the required number of additional batteries, and the total energy consumption. We continuously track the remaining battery energy of drones to determine the optimal timing for battery replacement, rather than replacing the battery at each node. Using actual drone flight test data, we employed a machine learning (ML) method to estimate the energy consumption of different drone types during flight segments for different operating parameters. We present a novel mixed-integer programming model to efficiently formulate the problem that integrates the estimated energy consumption functions from ML. We propose a new greedy heuristic (GH) algorithm and a customized genetic algorithm (GA) for solving large-scale instances of this problem faster. Results demonstrate that the GH algorithm is substantially faster than the accelerated CPLEX and the GA, while sacrificing the solution quality by a small amount. Results based on an actual blood sample delivery case study from Pendleton, Oregon, United States, show that using a mixed fleet of drones reduces the total cost and total energy consumption up to 18.18% and 28.7%, respectively, compared to using a homogeneous fleet.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Propagation from Experiment Measurements to Modeling Approaches: A Case for SMR Steam Entrainment Testing

To license new and advanced reactor designs, regulators must be convinced that their unique safety cases—relative to existing large scale reactors—have been adequately addressed by the designed reactor protection systems. In water cooled small modular reactors (SMRs), droplet entrainment in steam flow has significant implications on the progression of accident scenarios due to its compact design features, which requires representative test data applicable to SMR designs. Computer code, modeling and simulation (M&S) tools and models require adequate verification, assessment, and qualification. This includes M&S results validation against scaled empirical data within allowable uncertainty bands to gain regulatory approvals during the various stages of reactor system design, demonstration, and commercialization. However, measurement uncertainty within the empirical datasets and test data applicability ranges requires careful consideration of M&S inputs (i.e., boundary conditions, and initial conditions), and verification and validation efforts. This study focuses on uncertainty quantification in designing scaled test facilities for SMR applications with appropriate measurements and a standard data-reduction method to estimate thermal hydraulics characteristics parameters that incorporate physics phenomena of interest. In addition, this study supports the evaluation model development and assessment process using M&S that interfaces with advanced computing tools and digital twin capabilities. This will allow synchronization between experiment and modeling approaches for droplet entrainment testing and analysis, improving diagnostics, prognostics, and decision-making to accelerate regulatory approval.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning for Improved Availability of the SNS Klystron High Voltage Converter Modulators

Beam availability has increased at the SNS, however, the targeted availability is greater than 95 %, while the SNS has failed to meet lower targets in the past. The HVCM used to power the linac klystrons have been one source of lost beam time and was chosen to explore using AI/ML techniques to improve reliability. Among the possibilities being explored are automating the tuning of HVCMs and predicting component failures such as capacitor aging, rectifier assemblies containing hundreds of diodes, and insulating oil degradation. The methodology pursued includes data cleaning, de-noising, post-analysis data labeling, and machine learning model development. We explore using Long Short-Term Memory and autoencoders for anomaly detection and prognostication used to schedule maintenance. We evaluate the use of model regularizers and constraints to improve the performance of the model and investigate methods to estimate the uncertainty of the models to provide a robust prediction with statistical interoperability. This paper describes the operational experience and known failures of the HVCMs and the proposed ML methodology and the preliminary results of training the AI/ML algorithms.

Pappas, G. C.↗