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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1975

A study of application of remote sensing to river forecasting. Volume 1: Executive summary

A project is described whose goal was to define, implement and evaluate a pilot demonstration test to show the practicability of applying remotely sensed data to operational river forecasting in gaged or previously ungaged watersheds. A secondary objective was to provide NASA with documentation describing the computer programs that comprise the streamflow forecasting simulation model used. A computer-based simulation model was adapted to a streamflow forecasting application and implemented in an IBM System/360 Model 44 computer, operating in a dedicated mode, with operator interactive control through a Model 2250 keyboard/graphic CRT terminal. The test site whose hydrologic behavior was simulated is a small basin (365 square kilometers) designated Town Creek near Geraldine, Alabama.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1977

The use of snowcovered area in runoff forecasts

Long-term snowcovered area data from aircraft and satellite observations have proven useful in reducing seasonal runoff forecast error on the Kern river watershed. Similar use of snowcovered area on the Kings river watershed produced results that were about equivalent to methods based solely on conventional data. Snowcovered area will be most effective in reducing forecast procedural error on watersheds with: (1) a substantial amount of area within a limited elevation range; (2) an erratic precipitation and/or snowpack accumulation pattern not strongly related to elevation; and (3) poor coverage by precipitation stations or snow courses restricting adequate indexing of water supply conditions. When satellite data acquisition and delivery problems are resolved, the derived snowcover information should provide a means for enhancing operational streamflow forecasts for areas that depend primarily on snowmelt for their water supply.

Rango, A.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Objective tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting technique using conventional and Nimbus-5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer measurements

The ADAPT empirical analysis programs, based on finding an optimal representation of the data in the Karhunen-Loeve sense, were applied to 120 observations of twenty-nine 1973 and 1974 Pacific tropical cyclones. Each observation consists of NIMBUS-5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer (ESMR) radiation measurements at 267 grid points covering and surrounding the tropical cyclone plus nine other non-satellite derived descriptors. Analysis and forecast algorithms to estimate storm motion and intensity were developed for times ranging from the observation time up to 72 hours later. The 24 hr wind speed forecasts with an accuracy of 11.7 knots and position forecasts with accuracies 15% better than persistence were demonstrated using independent tests.

Hunter, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Future freeze forecasting

Real time GOES thermal data acquisition, an energy balance minimum temperature prediction model and a statistical model are incorporated into a minicomputer system. These components make up the operational "Satellite Freeze Forecast System" being used to aid NOAA, NWS forecasters in developing their freeze forecasts. The general concept of the system is presented in this paper. Specific detailed aspects of the system can be found in the reference cited.

Bartholic, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Sensitivity of Forecast Skill to Different Objective Analysis Schemes

Numerical weather forecasts are characterized by rapidly declining skill in the first 48 to 72 h. Recent estimates of the sources of forecast error indicate that the inaccurate specification of the initial conditions contributes substantially to this error. The sensitivity of the forecast skill to the initial conditions is examined by comparing a set of real-data experiments whose initial data were obtained with two different analysis schemes. Results are presented to emphasize the importance of the objective analysis techniques used in the assimilation of observational data.

Baker, W. E.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Effect of subjectively enhancing the initial vorticity field in a short-range numerical forecast

The paper tests a simple method to incorporate subsynoptic-scale information into the initial conditions of a forecast model. The amplitude, orientation and vertical structure of the vorticity field associated with the subsynoptic-scale disturbance are estimated subjectively; this is done using a combination of climatological and physical models together with all available data. The initial values of geopotential are then obtained in the vicinity of the subsynoptic-scale disturbance, as over the rest of the domain, through the balance equation. Two sets of initial conditions are tested in 12-hr forecasts using a six-layer version of a primitive equation forecast model (Anthes and Warner, 1978). The analysis schemes consisted of (1) a careful subjective analysis of radiosonde data with a high-resolution objective interpolation, and (2) the same preceding analysis but including data derived from the enhanced vorticity fields in the vicinity of the subsynoptic-scale disturbance. The results are discussed in some detail.

Fried, G. D.↗
NASA NTRS1979

The forecasting center of Meudon, France

Main features of solar activity are described in relation to solar and geophysical forecasting. Spectroheliograms, radio and X-ray data, white light coronal observations, particles data, photospheric images, and photospheric magnetic fields are among the types of data used to identify the active centers and flares of the Sun. Forecasting and identification of geomagnetic activity is also discussed. The forecasting technique is described along with the types of users.

Simon, P.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Soviet short-term forecasts of active region evolution and flare activity

The structure and strength of the magnetic fields of the Sun's active regions were studied to obtain information for short term forecasting. Intensity forecasts were then made using the information obtained on the gradients of the magnetic fields between sunspots of opposite polarity. A comparison of flare forecasting methods is presented.

Severny, A. B.↗
NASA NTRS1979

A review of short-term flare forecasting activities at Toyokawa

Short-term forecasting of solar activity conducted at Toyokawa is briefly reviewed. The forecasts are based on microwave observations of the slowly varying component of solar radiation associated with active regions. It was found that for proton flares which take place in intense active regions, it is possible to predict their occurrence with certain accuracy, but for a certain class of proton flares which occur in a small active region or which are associated with an active region, which evolves very rapidly, or for whose which occur behind the limb, it is almost impossible to forecast their occurrence.

Enome, S.↗
NASA NTRS1979

The use of ionospheric indices to make real- and near-real-time forecasts of foF2 around Australia

Two computer programs are used to forecast foF2 at points around Australia from daily and hourly ionospheric indices. It is found that for forecasts one day ahead, the most accurate results are obtained using the past variations of foF2 at several stations to determine a latitudinal-average daily ionospheric index. Forecasts made with lead times of zero to three hours do not offer significant improvements over those made one day ahead.

Mcnamara, L. F.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Forecasts of geomagnetic activity by Ottawa Magnetic Observatory: Their reliabilty and application

A 27 day forecast of geomagnetic activity based on the forecasts from two locations is presented. To evaluate the reliability of the forecasts, the predicted activity was compared with the actual geomagnetic activity at five geomagnetic observatories located in different magnetic zones: Ottawa (57.0N, 351.5E); Meanook (61.8N, 301.0E); Fort Churchill (68.8N, 322.5E); Cambridge Bay (76.7N, 294.0E); and Resolute Bay (83.1N, 287.7E). Results indicate that the percentage of correct predictions varies with the geomagnetic latitude of the observatory used for comparison. The percentage is on the average highest for lower latitude stations and lowest for the northern stations. The number of incorrect predictions ranges from 4.7% for Ottawa to 8.4% for Churchill.

Hruska, J.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Possible future directions in crop yield forecasting

This paper examines present and future possible applications of remote sensing to crop yield forecasting. It is concluded that there are ways in which Landsat data could be used to assist in crop yield forecasting using present technology. A framework for global crop yield forecasting which uses remote sensing, meteorological, field and ancillary data, as available, is proposed for the future.

Colwell, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Global crop forecasting

The needs for and remote sensing means of global crop forecasting are discussed, and key results of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) are presented. Current crop production estimates provided by foreign countries are shown often to be inadequate, and the basic elements of crop production forecasts are reviewed. The LACIE project is introduced as a proof-of-concept experiment designed to assimilate remote sensing technology, monitor global wheat production, evaluate key technical problems, modify the technique accordingly and demonstrate the feasibility of a global agricultural monitoring system. The global meteorological data, sampling and aggregation techniques, Landsat data analysis procedures and yield forecast procedures used in the experiment are outlined. Accuracy assessment procedures employed to evaluate LACIE technology performance are presented, and improvements in system efficiency and capacity during the three years of operation are pointed out. Results of LACIE estimates of Soviet, U.S. and Canadian wheat production are presented which demonstrate the feasibility and accuracy of the remote-sensing approach for global food and fiber monitoring.

Macdonald, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS1980

The program of the Techniques Development Laboratory in aviation weather forecasting

Some operational and experimental products developed for aviation weather forecasting are briefly described. Experimental products include surface dew point, obstructions to vision, boundary layer model, computer-worded terminal forecasts, terminal alerting procedure, generalized equivalent Markov, and radar forecasts (0-2 hours).

Klein, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Approach to forecasting daily maximum ozone levels in St. Louis

Measurements taken in 1976 from the St. Louis Regional Air Pollution Study (RAPS) data base, conducted by EPA, were analyzed to determine an optimum set of air-quality and meteorological variables for predicting maximum ozone levels for each day in 1976. A 'leaps and bounds' regression analysis was used to identify the best subset of variables. Three particular variables, the 9 a.m. ozone level, the forecasted maximum temperature, and the 6-9 a.m. averaged wind speed, have useful forecasting utility. The trajectory history of air masses entering St. Louis was studied, and it was concluded that transport-related variables contribute to the appearance of very high ozone levels. The final empirical forecast model predicts the daily maximum ozone over 341 days with a standard deviation of 11 ppb, which approaches the estimated error.

Prior, E. J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

The growth of prognostic differences between GLAS model forecasts from SAT and NOSAT initial conditions

A study has been conducted to determine the cause of a major synoptic difference in the 72 h GLAS model forecasts from 0000 GMT 19 February 1976 that resulted from the inclusion of satellite data. The prognostic differences that resulted in diverging cyclone paths between the forecast that included satellite temperature soundings (SAT) and the forecast that excluded satellite sounding data (NOSAT) have been traced to initial state differences in the upper level wind and temperature patterns. These modifications enhanced the variation of thermal vorticity and thermal advection across the cyclone center and in the SAT case, gave a greater initial rate of movement of the upper-level vorticity maximum associated with the surface cyclone.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Satellite fixed communications service: A forecast of potential domestic demand through the year 2000. Volume 3: Appendices

Voice applications, data applications, video applications, impacted baseline forecasts, market distribution model, net long haul forecasts, trunking earth station definition and costs, trunking space segment cost, trunking entrance/exit links, trunking network costs and crossover distances with terrestrial tariffs, net addressable forecasts, capacity requirements, improving spectrum utilization, satellite system market development, and the 30/20 net accessible market are considered.

Kratochvil, D.↗