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DOE OSTI2024

Making It Happen: On-Site Renewable Energy and Storage Challenges and Solutions for Commercial Buildings: Preprint

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Better Climate Challenge invites organizations to partner with DOE to set ambitious, portfolio-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction goals. To better understand the barriers to these goals and to demonstrate successful emissions reduction pathways, organizations can access working groups as one form of technical assistance from leading experts. One working group focus was the use of on-site renewable energy and storage - a key decarbonization strategy after energy efficiency. Members of the Better Climate Challenge onsite renewable energy and storage working group first identified barriers to implementing these technologies. Solutions were then brainstormed to support portfolio building owners to move from single systems to widespread implementation. Example insights include improving understandings of installation processes and location decisions, making the business case to relevant stakeholders, discussing unanticipated challenges throughout the process, and replicating these technologies across portfolios. This paper details valuable market feedback and highlights pathways to move toward widespread deployment of renewable energy and storage solutions.

building decarbonization strategies↗
DOE OSTI2024

Realizing the Residential Electrification Opportunity: One Heat Pump at a Time

Space and water heating in residential buildings is a major contributor of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States. Advanced electric heat pumps (HP) and heat pump water heaters (HPWH) are poised to provide a low carbon alternative to traditional fossil-based space and water heating. Widespread deployment of heat pumps could help address the significant portion of building emissions and primary energy used in American households, however much work needs to be done to close the knowledge gap between like-for-like fossil equipment replacement and switching to HPs for the average contractor. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been working on closing this knowledge gap through the development of decision tools and resources targeted towards contractors and installers. Developed in coordination with stakeholders and experienced contractors from a variety of geographic regions, these tools help streamline the process of sizing and selecting residential HPs and HPWHs for key use cases. Along with the complementary Retrofit Decision Tool developed by PNNL, the decision tools will help contractors understand the importance of whole building considerations when choosing HPs including envelope upgrades, duct assessments, and electrical assessments to ensure optimal selection and performance of the HP or HPWH. They also provide direct links to resources and best practices developed by PNNL as well as external entities to further help contractor education and training. This paper describes the development of these tools, and their role in moving the existing space and water heating market towards HPs to help realize the country’s decarbonization goals.

heat pump, heat pump water heater, Residential bui↗
DOE OSTI2024

Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform - 4P Model

Global momentum is building towards a circular economy capable of keeping plastics in use and out of waste streams. Given that 79% of all plastic produced since 1950 has accumulated in landfills or the natural environment,rapid implementation of various end-of-life (EoL) management technologies will be needed to reach this target. However, it can be challenging to develop an effective plastic EoL strategy when the available options - chemical or molecular recycling, energy recovery, upcycling, downcycling, closed-loop (plastic-to-plastic) or open-loop (plastic-to-x) recycling, among others - can generate products ranging from low-grade to virgin-quality plastic and from fuels to value-added chemicals. We present a flexible material flow model capable of analyzing the effects of both plastic-to-plastic and plastic-to-x EoL management strategies on the U.S. PET economy. This Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) assesses the environmental impacts, costs, and circularity of a PET system in which waste is managed through six potential EoL pathways: landfill, incineration with energy recovery, pyrolysis to fuel oil, upcycling to glass fiber reinforced plastic (GFRP), mechanical recycling to low-grade PET, and chemical recycling (glycolysis) to bottle-grade PET. We compare the pathways across multiple metrics using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and then use a brute force algorithm to predict an optimal combination of EoL pathways to minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs and maximize circularity. This work highlights the need to implement a diverse portfolio of EoL strategies in parallel to enable a PET economy that meets environmental, economic, and circularity requirements simultaneously.

downcycling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Direct Air Capture and Utilization System (DACUS): FEED Study of CarbonCapture Inc. DAC and CarbonCure Utilization Technologies Using United States Steel’s Gary Works Plant Waste Heat

The effects of climate change are drastically perceived through the alarming rates of severe events such as flooding, hurricanes, wildfires, global temperature rise, sea-level rise, and ocean acidification etc., which has prompted the nations across the globe to control & reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, by massive adoption of electric vehicles, switching to renewal energy sources and promoting sustainable green products. However, recent climate studies have shown that such efforts will not be enough to keep the global temperature rising under 1.5° Celsius by the year 2050, which lead to the development of multiple Direct Air Capture (DAC) technologies. A DAC system extracts CO2 directly from the atmosphere, which is either stored underground for long term or utilized in other processes. The DACUS proposed at U.S. Steel Corporation’s Gary Works Plant in Gary, Indiana, will include an innovative DAC technology from CarbonCapture Inc. (CCI), which will be collocated and powered by waste heat from the steel plant to capture CO2 from ambient air, and CarbonCure CO2 utilization technology- which is a commercial technology that is already installed and in use by early adopters in more than 150 concrete mixing plants across North America and Asia. The University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign spearheaded this Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) study project, which was funded by US Department of Energy (DOE), aimed at designing a state-of-the art DACU system that can remove minimum of 5,000 tonne/year net CO2 from air (based on cradle-to-gate LCA) and converting the captured CO2 into low carbon intensity products. The off takers of the low Carbon product produced by the DACUS have also been identified near the steel plant in the Indiana, Illinois & Wisconsin Region. This creates a full CO2 value chain and provides a means to assess the impact of this holistic approach on job creation, regional economic impact, and environmental justice. DACUS is a promising new technology for reducing greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Operation costs are minimized by locating CCI’s innovative DAC collector at United States Steel's Gary Works site where waste heat is utilized. Carbon emissions are minimized in CO2 transportation. The captured CO2 will be permanently sequestered in concrete used as construction material. This DOE funded FEED study demonstrates a full CO2 value chain for a DACU system, supported by an industrial facility. If this project were constructed, it would have a very positive and lasting impact on both the environment and the community.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recent Advancements and Prospects of Chemical Heat Pumps for Temperature Amplification for Nuclear Process Heat Applications

The energy economy is continually evolving, particularly in terms of primary energy sources, their conversions to useful forms such as electricity and heat, and their utilization in different sectors, in response to socio-political factors. Because nuclear energy source is a clean and non-carbon-emitting energy source, it is crucial to consider its role in the evolution of the energy economy. Integrated Energy Systems (IES) are collaboratively controlled systems that can dynamically apportion thermal and/or electrical energy to promote the production of various energy products and have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, improve energy efficiency, improve electrical grid dependability, and enhance energy economics. To realize the benefits of IES with the current reactor fleets, selection and development of a complimentary temperature upgrading technology are necessary for providing process heat and improving economics.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Supply Chain Sustainability Analysis of Renewable Hydrocarbon Fuels via Indirect Liquefaction, Ex Situ Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis, Hydrothermal Liquefaction, Combined Algal Processing, and Biochemical Conversion: Update of the 2019 State-of-Technology Cases

This technical report describes the supply chain sustainability analysis (SCSAs) for the production of renewable hydrocarbon transportation fuels via a range of conversion technologies: (1) renewable high octane gasoline (HOG) via indirect liquefaction (IDL) of woody lignocellulosic biomass (note that the IDL pathway in this SCSA represents the syngas conversion design in the 2019 SOT); (2) renewable gasoline (RG) and diesel (RD) blendstocks via ex situ catalytic fast pyrolysis of woody lignocellulosic biomass; (3) RD via hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of wet sludge from a wastewater treatment plant; (4) renewable hydrocarbon fuels via biochemical conversion of herbaceous lignocellulosic biomass; (5) renewable diesel via HTL of a blend of algae and woody biomass; and (6) renewable diesel via combined algae processing (CAP). This technical report focuses on the environmental performance of these six biofuel production pathways in their 2019 SOT cases. The results of these renewable hydrocarbon fuel pathways in these SCSA analyses update those for the respective 2018 SOT cases. They also provide an opportunity to examine the impact of technology improvements in both biomass feedstock production and biofuel production that have been achieved in 2019 SOTs on the sustainability performance of these renewable transportation fuels, and they reflect updates to Argonne National Laboratory’s Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET®) model, which was released in October 2019. These GREET updates include the production of natural gas, electricity, and petroleum-based fuels that can influence biofuels’ supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) (CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O) emissions, water consumption, and air pollutant emissions. GHG emissions, water consumption, and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) emissions are the main sustainability metrics assessed in this analysis. In this analysis, we define water consumption as the amount of water withdrawn from a freshwater source that is not returned (or returnable) to a freshwater source at the same level of quality. Life-cycle fossil energy consumption and net energy balance, which is the life-cycle fossil energy consumption deducted from the renewable biofuel energy produced, are also assessed.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supply Chain Sustainability Analysis of Renewable Hydrocarbon Fuels via Indirect Liquefaction, Ex Situ Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis, Hydrothermal Liquefaction, Combined Algal Processing, and Biochemical Conversion: Update of the 2020 State-of-Technology Cases

This technical report describes the SCSAs for the production of renewable hydrocarbon transportation fuels via a range of conversion technologies in the 2020 SOTs: (1) renewable high octane gasoline (HOG) via indirect liquefaction (IDL) of woody lignocellulosic biomass (note that the IDL pathway in this SCSA represents the syngas conversion design); (2) renewable gasoline (RG) and diesel (RD) blendstocks via ex situ catalytic fast pyrolysis of woody lignocellulosic biomass; (3) RD via hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of wet sludge from a wastewater treatment plant; (4) renewable hydrocarbon fuels via biochemical conversion of herbaceous lignocellulosic biomass; (5) renewable diesel via HTL of a blend of algae and woody biomass; and (6) renewable diesel via combined algae processing (CAP). This technical report focuses on the environmental performance of these six biofuel production pathways in their 2020 SOT cases. The results of these renewable hydrocarbon fuel pathways in these SCSA analyses update those for the respective 2019 SOT cases. They also provide an opportunity to examine the impact of technology improvements in both biomass feedstock production and biofuel production that have been achieved in 2020 SOTs on the sustainability performance of these renewable transportation fuels. The SCSA results also reflect updates to Argonne National Laboratory’s Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET ® ) model, which was released in October 2020. These GREET updates include the production of natural gas, electricity, and petroleum-based fuels that can influence biofuels’ supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) (CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O) emissions, water consumption, and air pollutant emissions. GHG emissions, water consumption, and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) emissions are the main sustainability metrics assessed in this analysis. In this analysis, we define water consumption as the amount of water withdrawn from a freshwater source that is not returned (or returnable) to a freshwater source at the same level of quality. Life-cycle fossil energy consumption and net energy balance, which is the life-cycle fossil energy consumption deducted from the renewable biofuel energy produced, are also assessed.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supply Chain Sustainability Analysis of Renewable Hydrocarbon Fuels via Indirect Liquefaction, Ex Situ Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis, Hydrothermal Liquefaction, Combined Algal Processing, and Biochemical Conversion: Update of the 2020 State-of-Technology Cases

The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) aims to develop and deploy technologies to transform renewable biomass resources into commercially viable, high-performance biofuels, bioproducts, and biopower through public and private partnerships (U.S. Department of Energy, 2016). BETO and its national laboratory teams conduct in-depth techno-economic assessments (TEA) of biomass feedstock supply and logistics and conversion technologies to produce biofuels. There are two general types of TEAs: A design case outlines a target case (future projection) for a particular biofuel pathway. It enables identification of data gaps and research and development needs and provides goals and benchmarks against which technology progress is assessed. A state of technology (SOT) analysis assesses progress within and across relevant technology areas based on actual results at current experimental scales relative to technical targets and cost goals from design cases, and includes technical, economic, and environmental criteria as available. In addition to developing a TEA for a pathway of interest, BETO also performs a supply chain sustainability analysis (SCSA). The SCSA takes the life-cycle analysis approach that BETO has been supporting for about 20 years. It enables BETO to identify energy consumption, environmental, and sustainability issues that may be associated with biofuel production. Approaches to mitigate these issues can then be developed. Additionally, the SCSA allows for comparison of energy and environmental impacts across biofuel pathways in BETO’s research and development portfolio. This technical report describes the SCSAs for the production of renewable hydrocarbon transportation fuels via a range of conversion technologies in the 2020 SOTs: (1) renewable high octane gasoline (HOG) via indirect liquefaction (IDL) of woody lignocellulosic biomass (note that the IDL pathway in this SCSA represents the syngas conversion design [Harris et al. 2021]); (2) renewable gasoline (RG) and diesel (RD) blendstocks via ex situ catalytic fast pyrolysis of woody lignocellulosic biomass [Abhijit et al. 2021]; (3) RD via hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of wet sludge from a wastewater treatment plant; (4) renewable hydrocarbon fuels via biochemical conversion of herbaceous lignocellulosic biomass (Davis et al. 2021; Lin et al. 2021); (5) renewable diesel via HTL of a blend of algae (Davis and Klein, 2021) and woody biomass (Hartley et al. 2020); and (6) renewable diesel via combined algae processing (CAP) (Wiatrowski and Davis, 2021). This technical report focuses on the environmental performance of these six biofuel production pathways in their 2020 SOT cases. The results of these renewable hydrocarbon fuel pathways in these SCSA analyses update those for the respective 2019 SOT cases (Cai et al. 2020). They also provide an opportunity to examine the impact of technology improvements in both biomass feedstock production and biofuel production that have been achieved in 2020 SOTs on the sustainability performance of these renewable transportation fuels. The SCSA results also reflect updates to Argonne National Laboratory’s Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET®) model, which was released in October 2020 (Wang et al. 2020). These GREET updates include the production of natural gas, electricity, and petroleum-based fuels that can influence biofuels’ supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) (CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O) emissions, water consumption, and air pollutant emissions. GHG emissions, water consumption, and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) emissions are the main sustainability metrics assessed in this analysis. In this analysis, we define water consumption as the amount of water withdrawn from a freshwater source that is not returned (or returnable) to a freshwater source at the same level of quality. Life-cycle fossil energy consumption and net energy balance, which is the life-cycle fossil energy consumption deducted from the renewable biofuel energy produced, are also assessed.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2013

Analyzing Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions in California Using Airborne Measurements and Model Simulations

Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations have increased over the past decades and are linked to global temperature increases and climate change. These changes in climate have been suggested to have varying effects, and uncertain consequences, on agriculture, water supply, weather, sea-level rise, the economy, and energy. To counteract the trend of increasing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs, the state of California has passed the California Global Warming Act of 2006 (AB-32). This requires that by the year 2020, GHG (e.g., carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)) emissions will be reduced to 1990 levels. To quantify GHG fluxes, emission inventories are routinely compiled for the State of California (e.g., CH4 emissions from the California Greenhouse Gas Emissions Measurement (CALGEM) Project). The major sources of CO2 and CH4 in the state of California are: transportation, electricity production, oil and gas extraction, cement plants, agriculture, landfills/waste, livestock, and wetlands. However, uncertainties remain in these emission inventories because many factors contributing to these processes are poorly quantified. To alleviate these uncertainties, a synergistic approach of applying air-borne measurements and chemical transport modeling (CTM) efforts to provide a method of quantifying local and regional GHG emissions will be performed during this study. Additionally, in order to further understand the temporal and spatial distributions of GHG fluxes in California and the impact these species have on regional climate, CTM simulations of daily variations and seasonality of total column CO2 and CH4 will be analyzed. To assess the magnitude and spatial variation of GHG emissions and to identify local “hot spots”, airborne measurements of CH4 and CO2 were made by the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in January and February 2013 during the Discover-AQ-CA study. High mixing ratios of GHGs were observed in-flight with a high degree of spatial variability. To provide an additional method to quantify GHG emissions, and analyze AJAX measurement data, the GEOS-Chem CTM is used to simulate SFBA/SJV GHG measurements. A nested-grid version of GEOS-Chem will be applied and utilizes varying emission inventories and model parameterizations to simulate GHG fluxes/emissions. The model considers CO2 fluxes from fossil fuel use, biomass/biofuel burning, terrestrial and oceanic biosphere exchanges, shipping and aviation, and production from the oxidation of carbon monoxide, CH4, and non-methane volatile organic carbons. The major sources of CH4 simulated in GEOS-Chem are domesticated animals, rice fields, natural gas leakage, natural gas venting/flaring (oil production), coal mining, wetlands, and biomass burning. Preliminary results from the comparison between available observations (e.g., AJAX and CALGEM CH4 emission maps) and GEOS-Chem results will be presented, along with a discussion of CO2 and CH4 source apportionment and the use of the GEOS-Chem-adjoint to perform inverse GHG modeling.

Johnson, Matthew S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Well-to-wheels greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions from battery electric vehicles in China

Electric vehicles (EVs) play a crucial role in addressing climate change and urban air quality concerns. China has emerged as the global largest EV market with 1.2 million EVs sold in 2018. This study established a novel life cycle energy use and emission inventory collecting up-to-date data including the electricity generation mix, emission controls in the power and industrial sectors, and the energy use in the fuel transport to estimate the well-to-wheels (WTW) greenhouse gas (GHG), and air pollutant emissions for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and gasoline passenger vehicles in China. The results show that an average BEV has 35% lower WTW GHG emissions than an average gasoline car. BEVs reduce volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOX) emissions by 98% and 34%, respectively, but have comparable or slightly higher primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions. Compact and small-size vehicles generally have lower GHG and air pollutant emissions than mid- and large-size vehicles. Class A vehicles contribute the most in the absolute amount of GHG and air pollutant emissions and therefore have the biggest potential for emission reduction. Our results suggest that global policymakers should continue to promote the transition to clean power sources, emission control, and fuel economy regulations, which are critical to enhancing emission mitigation benefits of BEVs. We also suggest EV development strategies should be formulated targeting vehicle class with the biggest emission mitigation potentials.

Air pollutant emissions↗
DOE OSTI2025

Biochemical Conversion of Herbaceous Biomass to Renewable Diesel: Net Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Trade-offs

This study examines greenhouse gas (GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CAP) emissions trade-offs for renewable diesel across 12 scenarios, involving different biochemical conversion designs, biorefinery scales, and feedstocks. A conventional design uses lignin for on-site heat and power, which exports excess power to the grid. An alternative design exports lignin pellets, offsetting other pellet production methods but requiring grid electricity to meet biorefinery power demands. Net emissions were quantified in Iowa and Georgia, selected considering feedstock availability, coproduct displacement, and regional power grids, assuming grid-exported power avoids coal or low-carbon electricity. Results for the conventional design remained consistent across the electricity displacement scenarios. When comparing lignin utilization strategies, pelletizing lignin reduces sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and volatile organic compounds (net emissions –0.66 mg MJ –1 , 25 mg MJ –1 , 25 mg MJ –1 , 7.8 mg MJ –1 , respectively). However, lignin pelletization increases net particulate matter (fine and coarse) and ammonia (net emissions of 4.7 mg MJ –1 , 13 mg MJ –1 , and 0.26 mg MJ –1 , respectively), alongside indirect GHG emissions due to grid electricity dependence. Additionally, processing 2000 tonnes corn stover daily minimizes emissions for both designs. Only lignin pelletization with renewable electricity and additional particulate matter and ammonia controls reduces all CAP and GHG emissions simultaneously.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Biofuel Options for Marine Applications: Technoeconomic and Life-Cycle Analyses

This study performed technoeconomic and life-cycle analyses to assess the economic feasibility and emission benefits and tradeoffs of various biofuel production pathways as an alternative to conventional marine fuels. We analyzed production pathways for (1) Fischer-Tropsch diesel from biomass and cofeeding biomass with natural gas or coal, (2) renewable diesel via hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids from yellow grease and cofeeding yellow grease with heavy oil, and (3) bio-oil via fast pyrolysis of low-ash woody feedstock. We also developed a new version of the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) marine fuel module for the estimation of life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CAP) emissions of conventional and biobased marine fuels. The alternative fuels considered have a minimum fuel selling price between 2.36 and 4.58 $/heavy fuel oil gallon equivalent (HFOGE), and all exhibit improved life-cycle GHG emissions compared to heavy fuel oil (HFO), with reductions ranging from 40 to 93%. The alternative fuels also exhibit reductions in sulfur oxides and particulate matter emissions. Additionally, when compared with marine gas oil and liquified natural gas, they perform favorably across most emission categories except for cases where carbon and sulfur emissions are increased by the cofed fossil feedstocks. The pyrolysis bio-oil offers the most promising marginal CO2 abatement cost at less than $100/tonne CO2e for HFO prices >$1.09/HFOGE followed by Fischer-Tropsch diesel from biomass and natural gas pathways, which fall below $100/tonne CO2e for HFO prices >$2.25/HFOGE. Pathways that cofeed fossil feedstocks with biomass do not perform as well for marginal CO2 abatement cost, particularly at low HFO prices. This study indicates that biofuels could be a cost-effective means of reducing GHG, sulfur oxide, and particulate matter emissions from the maritime shipping industry and that cofeeding biomass with natural gas could be a practical approach to smooth a transition to biofuels by reducing alternative fuel costs while still lowering GHG emissions, although marginal CO2 abatement costs are less favorable for the fossil cofeed pathways.

Greenhouse gas, life cycle assessment, techno-econ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of Water Table Fluctuation on Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Wetland Soils in the Peruvian Amazon

Amazonian swamp forests remove large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) but produce methane (CH 4 ). Both are important greenhouse gases (GHG). Drought and cultivation cut the CH 4 emissions but may release CO 2 . Varying oxygen content in nitrogen-rich soil produces nitrous oxide (N 2 O), which is the third most important GHG. Despite the potentially tremendous changes, GHG emissions from wetland soils under different land uses and environmental conditions have rarely been compared in the Amazon. We measured environmental characteristics, and CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from the soil surface with manual opaque chambers in three sites near Iquitos, Peru from September 2019 to March 2020: a pristine peat swamp forest, a young forest and a slash-and-burn manioc field. The manioc field showed moderate soil respiration and N 2 O emission. The peat swamp forests under slight water table drawdown emitted large amounts of CO 2 and CH 4 . A heavy post-drought shower created a hot moment of N 2 O in the pristine swamp forest, likely produced by nitrifiers. All in all, even small changes in soil moisture can create hot moments of GHG emissions from Amazonian wetland soils, and should therefore be carefully monitored.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Response of the North American Monsoon to Increased Greenhouse Gas Forcing

[1] We analyze the response of the North American Monsoon (NAM) to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing (emissions scenario RCP 8.5) using new simulations available through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5). Changes in total monsoon season rainfall with GHG warming are small and insignificant. The models do, however, show significant declines in early monsoon season precipitation (June-July) and increases in late monsoon season (September-October) precipitation, indicating a shift in seasonality toward delayed onset and withdrawal of the monsoon. Early in the monsoon season, tropospheric warming increases vertical stability, reinforced by reductions in available surface moisture, inhibiting precipitation and delaying the onset of the monsoon. By the end of the monsoon season, moisture convergence is sufficient to overcome the warming induced stability increases, and precipitation is enhanced. Even with no change in total NAM rainfall, shifts in the seasonal distribution of precipitation within the NAM region are still likely to have significant societal and ecological consequences, reinforcing the need to not only understand the magnitude, but also the timing, of future precipitation changes.

rain↗
DOE OSTI2021

Response to “how robust are reductions in modeled estimates from GTAP-BIO of the indirect land use change induced by conventional biofuels?”

Malins et al. (2020) recently published "How robust are reductions in modeled estimates from GTAP-BIO of the indirect land use change induced by conventional biofuels?", provided their narrative from the model improvements in GTAP-BIO over time, made several critical points regarding this model, and argued that the implemented improvements in this model tended to decrease Induce Land Use Changes (ILUC) emissions. Furthermore, they also provided several critical points regarding the Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB) emissions model. In this response to Malins et al. we address these critiques point-by-point by providing our detailed responses to key issues: 1) the GTAP-BIO model and its improvements over time; 2) the inclusion of cropland pasture in the model; 3) the observed land use changes in the US that have been the bases for improvements in GTAP-BIO model, 4) the time trends in corn price and yield to challenge the concept of the yield to price response; 5) some sources of land intensification in crop production; 6) the FAO notifications with respect to the comparison between harvested area and arable land; and 7) the GTAP-BIO results for multiple cropping. We also provided responses to Malins et al. critical points regarding the CCLUB emissions model. We hope that this response letter will open more constructive discussion among the LUC modeling community to remain focused on the big picture regarding agriculture's role as a very effective GHG mitigation tool that can shape the new policies to govern the production and consumption of biofuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Life Cycle Assessment of Methanol from Fossil, Biomass, and Waste Sources, and Its Use as a Marine Fuel in Dual-Fuel Engines

Methanol is gaining interest in the marine sector from energy security and reducing emissions perspective. This study provides a comparative life cycle assessment of methanol as a marine fuel, across GHG and criteria air pollutant emission metrics, when it is used in a dual-fuel engine. Twelve methanol pathways from four different feedstock categories were considered, including (1) cellulosic biomass forest residues and clean pine mix, corn stover, switchgrass, and miscanthus; (2) organic wastes renewable natural gas from wastewater sludge, swine manure, food waste, and landfill gas; (3) fossil resources coal and natural gas (NG); and (4) e-methanol using captured carbon dioxide. When used in a dual-fuel engine with pilot fuel, life cycle GHG emissions for woody biomass-based methanol were approximately 19 gCO 2 e MJ −1 , while emissions from waste-based sources ranged between −154 and 31 gCO 2 e MJ −1 . Methanol from renewable sources showed a GHG reduction potential between 58 and 226% compared to conventional NG-based methanol (122 gCO 2 e MJ −1 ), primarily due to the avoided emissions from conventional waste management. When carbon from process emissions were captured, the reduction could be up to 327%. All pathways exhibited lower NO X , and particulate matter emissions compared to the baseline marine fuel (MGO 0.1% sulfur), while woody biomass and coal pathways had higher SO X emissions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗