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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2019

Challenges in Vehicle Safety and Occupant Protection for Autonomous Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) Vehicles

The burgeoning electric Vertical Take-off and Landing (eVTOL) vehicle industry has generated a significant level of enthusiasm amongst aviation designers, manufacturers and researchers. This industry is determined to change the urban transportation paradigm from traditional ground-based vehicles (cars, taxis, buses) to air-based eVTOL vehicles which can be summoned, much like how conventional taxi services work currently. These new eVTOL vehicles are designed to be small and lightweight and operate autonomously without user intervention. There are many unknowns as to how the industry will mature. The logistics of creating a completely new category of vehicle along with its own set of rules are complex, and there are many known - and unknown - barriers to overcome. Some (of many) known barriers include airspace management, ground logistics, physical space, and, the vehicle design itself. There are many eVTOL vehicle manufacturers and organizations working these problems presently. This report will focus on one major barrier: the level of safety as it pertains to the framework of eVTOL vehicles. A high level of safety is necessary for the vehicles to gain acceptance as the public adapts to these autonomous ride-sharing services. An overview of current levels of transportation safety and some extrapolation into how eVTOL vehicles might compare is first presented. Next, a discussion categorizing the major differences between Crash Prevention and Crash Mitigation as it pertains to eVTOL vehicle safety is included with identification of current deficiencies. The report then expands into a framework for specific ideas that could use Crash Mitigation to improve vehicle safety through a crashworthy systems level approach with several designs highlighted. Finally, a brief discussion into the regulatory approach and potential guidelines as they pertain to new eVTOL vehicles is presented. Accordingly, much of the supplemental data will be taken from sources pertaining to either General Aviation (GA) aircraft, rotorcraft, or transport category aircraft, due to the lack of overarching data from eVTOL vehicles. As of this writing, the European Aviation Safety Agency has released a draft version of a VTOL Special Condition, with a comment period closing in late 2018. It is assumed that eventual expected operations and anticipated future regulations for VTOL vehicles will consist of some combination of these (and other) sources.

Littell, Justin D.↗
NASA NTRS2019

How Much Testing is Needed to Manage Supportability Risks for Beyond-LEO Missions?

Supportability will be a significantly greater driver of cost and risk for future deep-space crewed missions than it has been in the past. Spares requirements and maintenance risk mitigation in particular present an unprecedented challenge for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), since, for the first time in human spaceflight history, crews will be weeks or months away from resupply or a safe return to Earth in the event of an abort. Under these conditions, failure rates are a critical parameter that must be well-understood in order to manage logistics and risk effectively. However, failure rates cannot be measured directly, and can only be estimated based on past experience and test results. Previous research has shown that International Space Station (ISS) operational experience has provided significant benefits to future missions by reducing uncertainty and improving accuracy in failure rate estimates, resulting in significant reductions in mass and risk for beyond-LEO missions. This paper updates and expands on that research and quantifies the potential value of continued testing for future mission supportability. Frequentist and Bayesian models for evaluating, validating, and updating failure rate estimates are described, and are combined with supportability models to examine potential impacts of additional operating experience for future missions in terms of logistics mass reduction. The implications of these results for technology development, system design, and program planning are discussed along with lessons learned and recommendations for future system development. In the end, there is no simple answer to the question of how much testing is required, but the models described in this paper provide a way to evaluate the potential impacts of testing in order to inform test planning.

Andrew C Owens↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Space Manufacturing and Planetary Surface Construction: A "Make It, Don't Take It" Approach to Long Duration Human Exploration

This presentation will focus on technology development efforts at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) related to the long term sustainability of human spaceflight operations. NASA’s in-space manufacturing (ISM) project is developing approaches for on-demand manufacturing of metals, printed electronics, and recycling. These technologies will be demonstrated onboard the International Space Station (ISS) before transitioning to more logistically remote platforms such as Gateway or a foundational lunar surface habitat. Based on quantitative analyses, the operations and logistics approach used for ISS (which relies on storage of a large volume of spares and frequent cargo resupply), will not be transferrable to long duration, long endurance missions beyond low earth orbit. The deployment of manufacturing and recycling technologies on crewed platforms will enable on-demand manufacturing of spares at the point of use and conversion of nuisance materials to manufacturing feedstock, reducing both launch mass and waste material. This talk will also include information on NASA’s 3D Printed Habitat Centennial Challenge, which concluded in 2019 and served to advance the state of the art for large scale 3D printing with indigenous materials similar to those which would be available on a planetary surface. MSFC also recently began work on the Moon-to-Mars Planetary Autonomous Construction Technologies (MMPACT) project, which seeks to demonstrate capabilities for the creation of infrastructure on the lunar surface via construction of landing pads and habitats with lunar regolith based materials.

materials↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design Reference Mission Development for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Enabled Science Missions

Nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) presents a distinct alternative in the advanced propulsion landscape, providing “medium” efficiencies relative to the “high” efficiency of electric propulsion and the “low” efficiency of chemical propulsion. In exchange for this medium efficiency, NTP provides high acceleration, enabling much shorter operating times than the higher efficiency alternatives, often resulting in shorter trip times. This compromise has led to NTP’s frequent consideration in human missions, where crew health and logistics benefit significantly from the schedule advantages provided by NTP. However, the logistics and timeliness of science return from science missions also potentially stand to benefit from reduced schedules, as many of the high energy missions exceed a decade in trip time. Presented here are the results of analysis looking at three missions: A mission to Neptune’s moon, Triton, a solar polar orbiter, and a mission to interstellar space. Comparisons to results found in literature for conventional, and future propulsion technologies are presented.

Stephen Edwards↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ISS Payload Operations Training During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Impacts and Solutions

Introduction: The onset and the protracted duration of the COVID-19 pandemic brought a dramatic and rapid transformation to almost every aspect of humanity in 2020. The world’s space agencies and their missions were not immune to the unpredictable and wide-sweeping changes. One discipline principally affected was mission operations and the various groups supporting that critical function. Mission support teams, especially for complex and crewed missions like the International Space Station (ISS) were forced to rapidly rethink how and where control center staff performed their vital work. Operations training – an essential element to mission ops, had unique hurdles to overcome. Operations training is responsible for preparing astronaut crews for their scientific missions, providing recurring proficiency and currency material to flight controllers, as well as ensuring new team members are ready to join their colleagues on console. Every element of training was impacted by COVID restrictions. From orientation and introductory classes for new controllers, training for scientists and payload developers, to simulations and advanced lessons, critical On the Job Training (OJT) and final evaluations; all aspects faced new challenges. Operations trainers at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama, were forced to rethink, retool, and become more efficient with trainees and training resources in order to continue supporting payload operations on the ISS. Impacts and Barriers to Operations Training: The pandemic started in the United States in early March 2020. Immediately, NASA mandated that the support for ISS real-time operations was critical. As a result, physical access to the ISS Payload Operations Center was restricted to only those people supporting console operations. Thus, use of on-site NASA facilities and any trainer to trainee face-to-face interaction was not authorized. Trainers and trainees had to quickly shift to 100% remote learning. In the short term, this was not a problem since NASA had already prepared Information Technology (IT) resources that facilitated remote access to mission resources like classes, documents and teleconferences. However, instructors quickly discovered the classes that they were accustomed to delivering in a large classroom environment did not translate well to remote teaching. The lack of non-verbal communication with the class became a major barrier to instruction. Another significant hurdle to operations training was the mandate that all simulations could only be held remotely. The logistics of planning and executing even small simulations proved to be challenging, almost impossible, due to IT technology and public internet limitations. With simulations essentially stopped, as well as the restrictions on most OJT training, trainees were essentially stopped in their advancement towards certification. An additional barrier that had to be overcome was the formal documentation of the curriculum objectives. Even though NASA had been deliberately transitioning to electronic documents for years, some organizations were still relying on “pen and ink” documents to formalize training completion. The logistics of implementing secure and controlled e-signature documents in a standardized, NASA approved format had to be addressed. Lesson Learned and Efficiencies: Once the various limitations were identified, ISS trainers at MSFC discussed, proposed, and prioritized new options and techniques. Transitioning to all electronic learning materials and certifications was a relevantly easy fix. Teaching courses to large and diverse groups took additional shifts in the NASA training paradigm. Likewise, methods and procedures for preparing astronauts for their missions were forced to be revised. Simulation supervisors and their teams were also forced to find more efficient techniques to provide realistic training experience. Communication and approvals from management was essential. In every case, the ISS payload operations instructors found novel and efficient solutions to all functions listed above. This paper will discuss the factors and solutions payloads operations trainers found to keep scientific research on the ISS flying forward to mission success.

ISS Operations↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Safe Haven Concept for the Common Habitat in Moon, Mars, and Transit Environments

The safe haven for the Common Habitat architectures, both the Deep Space Exploration Vehicle and the Moon/Mars surface basecamps, consists of the airlock, logistics modules, and in-space or surface pressurized rovers. These elements are repositioned to dock together and form a secondary habitable environment. The multiple elements that compose the safe haven and its ability to share utilities across docking ports give it multiple subsystem options to sustain the crew. In the safe haven configuration, the two logistics modules dock to the side hatches of the airlock outer chamber, one pressurized rover docks to the outermost airlock hatch, and the second pressurized rover docks to the first. This configuration provides no less than thirty days of habitation for the eight-person crew. It also allows the airlock inner chamber to be used for EVAs to both the exterior surface and the Common Habitat interior, which may have lost pressure during the event that triggered the need for a safe haven. These EVAs enable the crew to work to repair the habitat and restore habitation capability.

Base camp↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Down-Selection of Four Common Habitat Variants

The Common Habitat is a large habitat that uses the Space Launch System core stage liquid oxygen tank as its primary structure. It has a gravity-independent internal architecture, such that identical units can be used on the lunar surface, Mars surface, and in microgravity. In developing the habitat, two key architectural questions emerged. Should the internal layout use a vertical or horizontal orientation of the tank? Should the crew size be four or eight? This led to the design of four variants: a four-crew horizontal, four-crew vertical, eight-crew horizontal, and eight-crew vertical. The primary consideration applied for down-selection was the crew experience living and working in the habitat, inclusive of crew productivity, well-being, and survivability. Based on this consideration, a series of seven assessments was performed to compare the four variants. A stowage assessment developed a standard logistics module and then considered the amounts of water to be stored in each variant. It then estimated how much stowage could be carried onboard each Common Habitat and how many logistics modules are required by each variant for a given mission duration. A functional analysis identified and compared the living and working functions across the four habitat, ranking them relative to each other. A crew time assessment first estimated the total crew time, building a weekly crew timeline for both four and eight-person crews. It then allocated time to activities linked to living and working functions, comparing how much time was available for each function in each variant. A science productivity assessment developed a relative metric using crew time, science stowage, and assumed rates of experiment consumables use to analytically compare the four variants. It also comparatively ranked the habitats with respect to a number of subjective parameters and a workstation acceptability rating. A maintenance capacity assessment identified and compared eleven generic maintenance capabilities across the four variants and also ranked the variants for their predicted ability to complete twelve fabrication, maintenance, and repair scenarios. A contingency responsiveness analysis examined twelve serious in-flight contingencies. For each scenario, the number of crew needed to respond was predicted and acceptability of various aspects of contingency response was evaluated, comparing the four variants against each other. Finally, in a habitability assessment, 120 habitability characteristics reflecting 13 major categories were evaluated for each habitat. These results were compared to identify the most acceptable habitat in each category. Ultimately, the data was shown to favor the horizontal orientation over the vertical and an eight-person crew over four. Implications of selecting this variant are discussed, including specific architectural challenges that result from the use of the full SLS liquid oxygen tank.

Habitability↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gateway Program Status and Overview

This paper provides an overview and status of the Gateway, which will be an outpost orbiting the Moon that provides vital support for a sustainable, long-term human return to the lunar surface and a steppingstone to Mars as part of the Artemis program. Gateway is a destination for deep space crew expeditions and science investigations, as well as a port for deep space transportation – for landers en route to the lunar surface or spacecraft embarking to destinations beyond the Earth-Moon system. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) leads the Program and serves as the integrator of the spaceflight capabilities and contributions of U.S. commercial partners and international partners to develop the Gateway. This paper will provide an overview of each component of the Gateway: The Power and Propulsion Element, the Habitation and Logistics Outpost; Deep Space Logistics; the International Habitation module; External Robotics System; European System Providing Refueling, Infrastructure and Telecommunications; an Airlock; and Exploration ExtraVehicular Activity (xEVA). Expanding on the successful partnership that has provided over 20 years of continuous crew operations in low-Earth orbit on ISS, the Gateway is an evolution of this extraordinary partnership that leverages the capabilities of each partner to expand humankind’s sustained exploration deeper into the cosmos. Highlighting the international program with participation from multiple international partners, this paper will also provide a status of the Gateway multilateral governance structure and international agreements.

Gateway↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lunar Surface Cargo Offloading Concepts

A sustainable presence on the lunar surface will serve as a vital training ground and technology demonstration test site in preparation for future human missions to Mars. Robotic lunar surface campaigns will focus on the exploration of resources providing information on the availability and extraction of usable resources, such as oxygen and water, and prepare the surface for a sustained human presence. Landers, outfitted with sensor packages, will be used to conduct risk-reduction activities and aid in the development of technologies prior to the crewed lunar missions that drive the need to for a logistics supply chain that requires offloading. A series of landers will be required on other planetary surfaces to build up the capabilities, capitalizing on those resources, required for sustained human presence. In each of those landers will be cargo including ascent vehicles, habitats, supplies, science packages, spare parts, fluids commodities for fuel and life support, and others varying in volume and ranging from mass in hundreds of kilograms to an estimated 6-14 metric tons to support Human Landing Systems and surface logistics requirements. This paper will examine the challenge of offloading examples of these cargo elements from different categories of landers on the lunar surface using a variety of methodologies. Challenges on the lunar surface arise with the conditions present (thermal, lighting, communications, regolith consistency), the desire to minimize mass of all landed systems, the desire to perform much of the activities with limited to minimal human interaction, and the overall configuration of the landers that are responsible for landing the cargo.

Lunar↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gateway Program Progress and Overview

This paper provides an overview and status of the Gateway, which will be a small, human-tended space station in orbit around the Moon. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) leads the Program and serves as the integrator of the spaceflight capabilities and contributions of U.S. commercial partners and international partners to develop the Gateway. Gateway is the cornerstone of sustainable deep space human exploration and is an essential element of the infrastructure necessary for the execution of the Artemis missions to the Moon. This paper will outline the current planned configuration and deployment of the station, describing the concept of operations and how Gateway supports both lunar surface missions and also serves as the springboard for exploration deeper in space. Calendar year 2022 will see the accomplishments of major milestones such as over twenty systems preliminary design reviews (PDRs), a Program-wide PDR-informed synchronization review, and NASA Key Decision Point marking the evolution of the program as a whole from the formulation phase and into implementation. This paper will provide a progress update for each major component of the Gateway: The Power and Propulsion Element; the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO); Deep Space Logistics; the International Habitation module; the European System Providing Refueling, Infrastructure, and Telecommunications (ESPRIT), which includes a Refueler Module and the HALO Lunar Communications System; External Robotics System; and an Airlock with both science and crew capabilities. For each component, the paper will describe the current maturity of the modules, acquisition strategy, contracts, and if applicable, international partnership status. This paper will also outline the integration function the Gateway Program Office performs at the NASA Johnson Space Center, including the multilateral governance structure and cross-program interfaces across Artemis.

Gateway↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lunar Surface Cargo Offloading Concepts

A sustainable presence on the lunar surface will serve as a vital training ground and technology demonstration test site in preparation for future human missions to Mars. Robotic lunar surface campaigns will focus on the exploration of resources providing information on the availability and extraction of usable resources, such as oxygen and water, and prepare the surface for a sustained human presence. Landers, outfitted with sensor packages, will be used to conduct risk-reduction activities and aid in the development of technologies prior to the crewed lunar missions that drive the need to for a logistics supply chain that requires offloading. A series of landers will be required on other planetary surfaces to build up the capabilities, capitalizing on those resources, required for sustained human presence. In each of those landers will be cargo including ascent vehicles, habitats, supplies, science packages, spare parts, fluids commodities for fuel and life support, and others varying in volume and ranging from mass in hundreds of kilograms to an estimated 6-14 metric tons to support Human Landing Systems and surface logistics requirements. This paper will examine the challenge of offloading examples of these cargo elements from different categories of landers on the lunar surface using a variety of methodologies. Challenges on the lunar surface arise with the conditions present (thermal, lighting, communications, regolith consistency), the desire to minimize mass of all landed systems, the desire to perform much of the activities with limited to minimal human interaction, and the overall configuration of the landers that are responsible for landing the cargo.

Lunar↗
NASA NTRS2022

Will scavenging liquid oxygen from the propellant of lunar landers reduce net delivered mass?

Baseline oxygen (O2) needs for astronauts on lunar surface missions are satisfied through delivery in logistics landers. Supplying O2 through resources already present on the lunar surface could reduce the logistics load mass as well as the cost. The propellant tanks on the landers are the most abundantly accessible source for supplying the needed O2 to the crew. Calculations and analysis were performed on both 28-day missions and year-long missions to determine the amount of O2 able to be scavenged from propellant.

Angelina Rossini↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gateway Program Status and Overview

This paper provides an overview and status of Gateway, which will be an outpost orbiting the Moon that provides vital support for a sustainable, long-term human return to the lunar surface and a steppingstone to Mars as part of the Artemis program. Gateway is a destination for deep space crew expeditions and science investigations, as well as a port for deep space transportation – for landers en route to the lunar surface or spacecraft embarking to destinations beyond the Earth-Moon system. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) leads the Program and serves as the integrator of the spaceflight capabilities and contributions of U.S. commercial partners and international partners to develop Gateway. This paper will provide an overview of each component of Gateway: The Power and Propulsion Element, the Habitation and Logistics Outpost; Deep Space Logistics; the International Habitation module; External Robotics System; European System Providing Refueling, Infrastructure and Telecommunications; an Airlock; and Exploration ExtraVehicular Activity (xEVA). Expanding on the successful partnership that has provided over 20 years of continuous crew operations in low-Earth orbit on ISS, Gateway is an evolution of this extraordinary partnership that leverages the capabilities of each partner to expand humankind’s sustained exploration deeper into the cosmos. Highlighting the international program with participation from multiple international partners, this paper will also provide a status of Gateway multilateral governance structure and international agreements.

Gateway↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Influence of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Landslide Susceptibility in the Lower Mekong River Basin

The Lower Mekong River Basin in Southeast Asia experiences frequent rainfall-triggered landslides especially during the monsoon season. In this study, the influence of land use and land cover change and other causative factors on landslide susceptibility is evaluated in the Lower Mekong Basin. Frequency ratio analysis is performed to quantify the relationship between LULC change and susceptibility. Detailed landslide inventory maps are used for analysis with yearly LULC maps. The LULC change is used as a contributing variable in a logistic regression-based susceptibility model with other variables including distance to roads, slope, aspect, forest loss, and soil properties. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and Area Under the Curve are estimated for the model trained by each landslide inventory. The models show good performance, with AUC values ranging from 0.697 to 0.958 and an average AUC equal to 0.820. Both the Frequency Ratio analysis and the Logistic Regression models indicate LULC change from agricultural land to forest has a positive correlation with landslide occurrence. The most significant factors in the models are found to be distance to roads, slope, and aspect. A better understanding of the effects of LULC on landslide susceptibility can be useful for local land and disaster management and for the implementation of LULC as a factor in future susceptibility models. Using datasets that are unique to the Lower Mekong region, this study provides additional insights into the relationship between causative factors and landslide activity to better inform regional and global landslide susceptibility modeling.

River Basin↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gateway at the Crossroads of Sustainable Lunar Exploration

The Gateway Program has made substantial design and development progress toward delivering a small, human-tended lunar space station purposefully designed to enable sustainable human exploration. The Program integrates partners and providers organizationally and physically as part of the spacecraft. The Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) and the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO) with the European System Providing Refueling, Infrastructure and Telecommunications (ESPRIT) HALO Lunar Communications System (HLCS) have begun manufacturing the long lead components and will be launched first as a Co-Manifested Vehicle (CMV). The International Habitat (I-Hab) and ESPRIT Refueling Module (ERM) are passing life cycle milestones and include capabilities key for human crewmembers, such as windows, private sleeping quarters, and galley functions. The Logistics Module (LM) may provide a variety of services to Gateway depending on each mission. Requirements for the airlock have been developed, including requests that it support the integrated spacecraft with functions like augmenting heat rejection capabilities, and interfaces with new spacesuits will soon be developed in more detail. As a critical element of the architecture for solar system exploration, Gateway implements key tenets and features of international interoperability standards necessary to operate with multiple visiting vehicles and lunar assets, especially avionics, communications, and docking. Specific choices such as software architecture and standards, power standards, and robotics standards make it possible to utilize heritage or proprietary technology, yet still operate as one spacecraft. Engineering teams are evaluating many possible future missions to be executed at or utilizing the Gateway. The system architecture protects for an evolvable, extensible, and flexible capability. Designing systems robust enough to serve as a cornerstone of exploration activities for decades while remaining adaptable is not without its challenges. The detailed integration activities have revealed challenges and the need to mature key technologies. Refueling is a key component of achieving long life for Gateway, with unique operations to plan, safety concerns to mitigate, and risk reduction activities to conduct to better understand the system. The constraints and impacts of the design of visiting vehicles is also an important concern, with orientation constraints, control of attitude and orbit of the Gateway with docked visiting vehicles. Tradeoffs between robust maintainable systems and lightweight, compact systems must be balanced. Opportunities still exist for adding additional advanced capabilities to increase and extend Gateway’s benefits, such as intravehicular robotics, autonomous Guidance Navigation and Control (GN&C), and augmented control propulsion, heat rejection, or other services.

Molly S Anderson↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gateway Program Development Progress

This paper provides an overview and status of Gateway, humanity’s first space station to orbit the Moon providing vital support for a sustained, long-term human return to the lunar surface and a steppingstone to Mars as part of the Artemis missions. As a lunar outpost, Gateway is a destination for deep space crew expeditions and science investigations, a port for deep space transportation, including landers transiting to the lunar surface or spacecraft embarking to deep space destinations beyond the Earth-Moon system. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) leads the Program and is the integrator of the spaceflight capabilities and contributions of U.S. commercial partners and international partners to develop Gateway. This paper will provide an overview of Gateway’s major components in various stages of development. The entire Gateway spacecraft is at preliminary design level of maturity, with some components at or near critical design review. Gateway’s major components are the Power and Propulsion Element; the Habitation and Logistics Outpost; Deep Space Logistics; the International Habitation module; Gateway External Robotics System; European System Providing Refueling, Infrastructure and Telecommunications; and an Airlock. This paper will also provide an update on the status of the integration activities necessary to fly and operate this complex, next-generation integrated spacecraft for a minimum 15 year design life, including systems engineering integrated analysis cycles, the autonomous Vehicle System Manager software, verification and validation labs, and common vehicle equipment. Expanding on the successful partnership that has provided over 20 years of continuous crew operations in low-Earth orbit on the International Space Station, Gateway is an evolution of this extraordinary partnership leveraging the capabilities of each contributor to expand humankind’s sustained exploration deeper into the cosmos. Highlighting the international program with participation from multiple space agencies, this paper will also provide a status of Gateway multilateral governance structure and international agreements.

Sean M Fuller↗
NASA NTRS2022

Projecting Power Converter Specific Power Through 2050 for Aerospace Applications

In order to analyze the potential fuel burn benefit from the electrification of aircraft powertrains, it is important to quantify the amount of weight that will be added to the aircraft for each additional component of the electric powertrain. This paper provides a projection of the specific power and efficiency of power converters, (AC-DC, DC-AC, or DC-DC), through the year 2050. Data was first collected on state of the art power converters in multiple application areas, creating a power converter database. Relevant specific powers were added to a set of historical data from 1976-2020, and then three different logistic curves were fit through the historical data to represent S-curve shaped growth through the year 2050. The three curves were differentiated by conservative, nominal, and aggressive assumptions for the year in which the logistic curve begins to bend down towards slower growth. With a 30% knockdown factor accounting for the additional weight required for a high altitude converter, projections range from the aggressive specific power projection of 52.9 kW/kg in 2050 to a much more conservative specific power of 12 kW/kg in which growth is limited due to certifiability concerns. Little historical data was found on converter efficiencies to project efficiency based on historical trends. Projections are based on expert opinion on yearly decreases in converter losses. 2050 projections range from 0.987 to 0.997.

fuel burn↗
NASA NTRS2023

Accounting for Dose Uncertainty in Dose-Response Curve Estimation Using Hierarchical Bayes Models

As part of their development of the technology for low-boom supersonic flight, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is planning to conduct a set of supersonic aircraft annoyance surveys in select communities in the United States, to measure public perception of the reduced sonic boom. The relationship between a noise exposure level of a supersonic flight event and the probability of an individual being highly annoyed by the event is quantified by a dose-response curve, which is usually based on logistic regression modeling. Unavoidable amounts of estimation error are expected in the upcoming noise measurements, which can bias the results of the logistic regression if ignored. Hence, the development of an estimation approach that accounts for such error when estimating the dose-response curve is imperative. In this paper, an evaluation study is conducted to assess the impact of measurement error on dose-response curve estimation. For this, hierarchical Bayes models using different specifications are fit to data collected by NASA in 2018, as part of a risk-reduction study of supersonic flights affecting Galveston, Texas. It is observed that the estimated dose-response curve appears sensitive to uncertainty in dose measurements, being subject to attenuation bias.

community response↗