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NASA NTRS2017

Requirement Development Process and Tools

Requirements capture the system-level capabilities in a set of complete, necessary, clear, attainable, traceable, and verifiable statements of need. Requirements should not be unduly restrictive, but should set limits that eliminate items outside the boundaries drawn, encourage competition (or alternatives), and capture source and reason of requirement. If it is not needed by the customer, it is not a requirement. They establish the verification methods that will lead to product acceptance. These must be reproducible assessment methods.

Tools↗

NASA NTRS2019

Indoor Ground Testing of a Small UAS Sense and Avoid Airborne Doppler Radar

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) project is researching prototype technologies needed to ensure safe integration of UAS operations into the National Airspace System (NAS). Within the UTM Concept of Operations, UAS would be equipped with on-board Sense and Avoid (SAA) technology to continually monitor for manned and unmanned aircraft in its vicinity while operating beyond visual line of sight in uncontrolled airspace. To support this effort, a candidate commercially available 24.5 GHz Doppler radar was selected and evaluated to determine if the technology could reliably support minimum requirements for SAA applications of small UAS (sUAS). Indoor ground tests were conducted inside the NASA Langley Research Center’s Experimental Test Range (ETR) from a stationary platform to evaluate the Doppler radar performance characteristics and gain operational proficiency before the radar was authorized to transmit outdoors. A high speed linear rail system was developed for the radar evaluation and was shown to be an effective method to generate Doppler radar targets of known radar cross section. The accuracy of the range and velocity reported by the radar was shown to be dependent on the Kalman filter state variance parameter settings. Antenna measurements were collected with the radar installed both on and off a sUAS to quantify the relative antenna gain, beam width and side lobe levels of the radar’s Metamaterial Electronically Scanning Array (MESA) antennas at boresight and extreme field of view pointing vectors. The relative antenna gain measured 2.6 dB lower at extreme field view angles compared to the boresight radiation pattern.

Szatkowski, George N.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Highly Accurate Quartic Force Field and Rovibrational Spectroscopic Constants for the Azirinyl Cation (c-C2NH2+) and Its Isomers

Azirinyl cation is an aromatic cyclic molecule that is isoelectronic with cyclopropenylidene, c-C3H2, and c-C3H3+. Cyclopropenylidene has been shown to be ubiquitous, existing in many different astrophysical environments. Given the similar chemistry between C and N, and the relative abundances between C and N in astrophysical environments, it is expected that there should be aromatic ringed molecules that incorporate N in the ring, but as yet, no such molecule has been identified. To address this issue, the present study uses high levels of electronic structure theory to compute a highly accurate quartic force field (QFF) for azirinyl cation and its two lowest lying isomers, the cyanomethyl and isocyanomethyl cations. The theoretical approach uses the singles and doubles coupled-cluster method that includes a perturbative correction for connected triple excitations, CCSD(T), together with extrapolation to the one-particle basis set limit and corrections for scalar relativity and core-correlation. The QFF is then used in a second order vibrational perturbation theory analysis (VPT2) to compute the fundamental vibrational frequencies and rovibrational spectroscopic constants for all three C2NH2+ isomers. The reliability of the VPT2 vibrational frequencies is tested by comparison to vibrational configuration interaction (VCI) calculations and excellent agreement is found between the two approaches. Fundamental vibrational frequencies and rovibrational spectroscopic constants for all singly substituted 13C, 15N, and D isotopologues are also reported. It is expected that the highly accurate spectroscopic data reported herein will be useful in the identification of these cations in high resolution experimental or astronomical observations.

Partha P Bera↗

NASA NTRS2006

Towards Robust Designs Via Multiple-Objective Optimization Methods

Fabricating and operating complex systems involves dealing with uncertainty in the relevant variables. In the case of aircraft, flow conditions are subject to change during operation. Efficiency and engine noise may be different from the expected values because of manufacturing tolerances and normal wear and tear. Engine components may have a shorter life than expected because of manufacturing tolerances. In spite of the important effect of operating- and manufacturing-uncertainty on the performance and expected life of the component or system, traditional aerodynamic shape optimization has focused on obtaining the best design given a set of deterministic flow conditions. Clearly it is important to both maintain near-optimal performance levels at off-design operating conditions, and, ensure that performance does not degrade appreciably when the component shape differs from the optimal shape due to manufacturing tolerances and normal wear and tear. These requirements naturally lead to the idea of robust optimal design wherein the concept of robustness to various perturbations is built into the design optimization procedure. The basic ideas involved in robust optimal design will be included in this lecture. The imposition of the additional requirement of robustness results in a multiple-objective optimization problem requiring appropriate solution procedures. Typically the costs associated with multiple-objective optimization are substantial. Therefore efficient multiple-objective optimization procedures are crucial to the rapid deployment of the principles of robust design in industry. Hence the companion set of lecture notes (Single- and Multiple-Objective Optimization with Differential Evolution and Neural Networks ) deals with methodology for solving multiple-objective Optimization problems efficiently, reliably and with little user intervention. Applications of the methodologies presented in the companion lecture to robust design will be included here. The evolutionary method (DE) is first used to solve a relatively difficult problem in extended surface heat transfer wherein optimal fin geometries are obtained for different safe operating base temperatures. The objective of maximizing the safe operating base temperature range is in direct conflict with the objective of maximizing fin heat transfer. This problem is a good example of achieving robustness in the context of changing operating conditions. The evolutionary method is then used to design a turbine airfoil; the two objectives being reduced sensitivity of the pressure distribution to small changes in the airfoil shape and the maximization of the trailing edge wedge angle with the consequent increase in airfoil thickness and strength. This is a relevant example of achieving robustness to manufacturing tolerances and wear and tear in the presence of other objectives.

Man Mohan, Rai↗

DOE OSTI2026

A search for microscopic black holes, string balls, and sphalerons in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

A search for microscopic black holes, string balls, and electroweak sphalerons using proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV recorded with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC during the 2016–2018 data taking, and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 , is presented. Two search strategies based on control samples in data are used. Model-independent limits on the cross section of physics phenomena with multiple energetic jets, leptons, and photons are set using a method that relies on the shape invariance of the scalar sum of the transverse momenta of all objects in the event. Model-dependent limits on black hole and sphaleron production are set using a newly introduced method that has been developed for the identification of collider events with distinct kinematic features by separating them into classes based on phase space proximity. In the context of models with large extra dimensions, semiclassical black holes and string balls with masses below 8.4–11.4 TeV and 9.0–10.7 TeV, respectively, are excluded at 95% confidence level, significantly extending the reach beyond previous searches. Results of a dedicated search for electroweak sphalerons are used to derive an upper limit of 0.0034 at 95% confidence level on the fraction of quark-quark interactions, with a center-of-mass energy above the nominal sphaleron transition energy threshold of 9 TeV, that result in a sphaleron transition.

Beyond Standard Model↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved Guarantees for Optimal Nash Equilibrium Seeking and Bilevel Variational Inequalities

We consider a class of hierarchical variational inequality (VI) problems that subsumes VI-constrained optimization and several other problem classes, including the optimal solution selection problem and the optimal Nash equilibrium (NE) seeking problem. Our main contribution is threefold. (i) We consider bilevel VIs with monotone and Lipschitz continuous mappings and devise a single-timescale iteratively regularized extragradient method, named IR-EG 𝚖,𝚖 . We improve the existing iteration complexity results for addressing both bilevel VI and VI-constrained convex optimization problems. (ii) Under the strong monotonicity of the outer-level mapping, we develop a method named IR-EG 𝚜,𝚖 and derive faster guarantees than those in (i). We also study the iteration complexity of this method under a constant regularization parameter. These results appear to be new for both bilevel VIs and VI-constrained optimization. (iii) To our knowledge, complexity guarantees for computing the optimal NE in nonconvex settings do not exist. Motivated by this lacuna, we consider VI-constrained nonconvex optimization problems and devise an inexactly projected gradient method, named IPR-EG, where the projection onto the unknown set of equilibria is performed using IR-EG 𝚜,𝚖 with a prescribed termination criterion and an adaptive regularization parameter. We obtain new complexity guarantees in terms of a residual map and an infeasibility metric for computing a stationary point. Here, we validate the theoretical findings using preliminary numerical experiments for computing the best and the worst NEs.

bilevel optimization↗

DOE OSTI2026

Fermilab Booster loss modelling and rebalancing using Bayesian methods

To meet PIP-II upgrade requirements, Fermilab Booster losses need to be reduced by 50% compared to present levels. So far, simulations are not good enough to predict loss patterns. Thus, an extensive Booster tune up will be necessary to achieve required performance. In this paper we present an effort to build a data-driven loss model using Bayesian techniques, and subsequently to rebalance losses for higher trip margins. We first created several sets of spatially and temporally isolated orbit and optics knobs, and trained Gaussian process models for each beam loss monitor as well as beam current. Novel techniques of uncertainty constraints and approximate GP fitting were introduced to handle safety and timing requirements. We then performed single and multi-objective tuning using scalarized objectives comprised of critical beam loss locations. We achieved significant rebalancing of losses, increasing margins by 25%, as well as an overall improvement in transmission efficiency of 0.4%. Automated data collection is being developed so that more accurate surrogate models can be trained over time.

Kuklev, N. [Fermilab]↗

NASA NTRS1981

The development and utilization of solar photovoltaic cells: An assessment of the potential for a new energy technology

The Government set the goal of accelerating the adaptation of photovoltaics by reducing system costs to a competitive level and overcoming the technical, institutional, legal, environmental, and social barriers impeding the diffusion of photovoltaic technology. The technology of silicon solar arrays was examined and the status of development efforts are reviewed. The political, legal, economic, social, and environmental issues are discussed, and several methods for selecting development projects are described. A number of market forecasting techniques, including time trend, judgemental, and econometric methods, were reviewed, and the results of these models are presented.

Cyr, K. J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Molecular cloud cores and bimodal star formation

The phenomenon of bimodal star formation is reviewed in the context of supercritical and subcritical states for molecular clouds that are supported against their self-gravitation by magnetic fields. The governing set of equations is derived subject to the quasi-static and axisymmetric approximations. The method of numerical solution and tests of the resultant computer code are outlined. The results of the evolutionary calculations are discussed, emphasizing time scales, masses, and typical sizes of modeled cores that can be compared with observations. For a fixed mass, it is found that the level or turbulent support determines whether a dense core forms or not. This is used to generalize the concept of a critical mass to account for the contributions of turbulence and thermal pressures to the support of a cloud.

Lizano, Susana↗

NASA NTRS1992

Theoretical study of transition-metal ions bound to benzene

Theoretical binding energies are reported for all first-row and selected second-row transition metal ions (M+) bound to benzene. The calculations employ basis sets of at least double-zeta plus polarization quality and account for electron correlation using the modified coupled-pair functional method. While the bending is predominantly electrostatic, the binding energies are significantly increased by electron correlation, because the donation from the metal d orbitals to the benzene pi* orbitals is not well described at the self-consistent-field level. The uncertainties in the computed binding energies are estimated to be about 5 kcal/mol. Although the calculated and experimental binding energies generally agree to within their combined uncertainties, it is likely that the true binding energies lie in the lower portion of the experimental range. This is supported by the very good agreement between the theoretical and recent experimental binding energies for AgC6H6(+).

Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Applicability of PM3 to transphosphorylation reaction path: Toward designing a minimal ribozyme

A growing body of evidence shows that RNA can catalyze many of the reactions necessary both for replication of genetic material and the possible transition into the modern protein-based world. However, contemporary ribozymes are too large to have self-assembled from a prebiotic oligonucleotide pool. Still, it is likely that the major features of the earliest ribozymes have been preserved as molecular fossils in the catalytic RNA of today. Therefore, the search for a minimal ribozyme has been aimed at finding the necessary structural features of a modern ribozyme (Beaudry and Joyce, 1990). Both a three-dimensional model and quantum chemical calculations are required to quantitatively determine the effects of structural features of the ribozyme on the reaction it catalyzes. Using this model, quantum chemical calculations must be performed to determine quantitatively the effects of structural features on catalysis. Previous studies of the reaction path have been conducted at the ab initio level, but these methods are limited to small models due to enormous computational requirements. Semiempirical methods have been applied to large systems in the past; however, the accuracy of these methods depends largely on a simple model of the ribozyme-catalyzed reaction, or hydrolysis of phosphoric acid. We find that the results are qualitatively similar to ab initio results using large basis sets. Therefore, PM3 is suitable for studying the reaction path of the ribozyme-catalyzed reaction.

Manchester, John I.↗

NASA NTRS2017

S-band Fence Study Phase 1: Estimating the Increased Level of Screening Volume Incursions

Motivation: CARA assesses collision risk for a set of high-value satellites. Deploying the S-band Fence (SBF) radar system will significantly increase the number of conjunctions to process, possibly overloading the current CARA system.Phase 1 study objective: Estimate changes in screening volume incursion rates caused by the SBF deploymentPhase 2 study objective: Estimate associated changes in serious conjunction rates (e.g., Pc > 10-4) Phase 3 study objective: Develop methods for filtering and prioritizing the increased tasking, as requiredAll to be discussed today are Phase I results

conjunction assessment operations↗

NASA NTRS2009

Probabilistic Models for Solar Particle Events

Probabilistic Models of Solar Particle Events (SPEs) are used in space mission design studies to provide a description of the worst-case radiation environment that the mission must be designed to tolerate.The models determine the worst-case environment using a description of the mission and a user-specified confidence level that the provided environment will not be exceeded. This poster will focus on completing the existing suite of models by developing models for peak flux and event-integrated fluence elemental spectra for the Z>2 elements. It will also discuss methods to take into account uncertainties in the data base and the uncertainties resulting from the limited number of solar particle events in the database. These new probabilistic models are based on an extensive survey of SPE measurements of peak and event-integrated elemental differential energy spectra. Attempts are made to fit the measured spectra with eight different published models. The model giving the best fit to each spectrum is chosen and used to represent that spectrum for any energy in the energy range covered by the measurements. The set of all such spectral representations for each element is then used to determine the worst case spectrum as a function of confidence level. The spectral representation that best fits these worst case spectra is found and its dependence on confidence level is parameterized. This procedure creates probabilistic models for the peak and event-integrated spectra.

Adams, James H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Uncertainty Models for the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method of Uncertainty Quantification; Analysis

There is some level of uncertainty in every finite element model (FEM), which flows to a level of uncertainty in predicted results. The purpose of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is to provide statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. This is distinct from model updating, which attempts to modify models to improve their accuracy. UQ does not improve the accuracy of models, but accepts that the models are inherently inaccurate and attempts to quantify the impact of that inaccuracy on predicted results. Previously, an alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method, was applied to Space Launch System (SLS) Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components to predict system-level statistics for launch vehicle attitude control transfer functions and core stage section loads due to buffet. The HPV method combines a parametric variation of the HCB fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method that randomly varies the HCB mass and stiffness matrices as Wishart random matrix distributions using random matrix theory (RMT). Alternatively, the most common method for modeling uncertainty in the structural dynamics community is a parametric approach, which varies physical parameters in the model. However, there are several disadvantages associated with the parametric method. Determining a reduced set of parameters that have a significant impact on the system response can be time consuming, and the selected parameter probability distributions are rarely reliably known. Therefore, in practice, the parameters are surrogates for the actual errors, and the link to parameter uncertainty is unknown. Another major drawback is that the uncertainty that can be represented is limited to the form of the nominal FEM. It is the experience of the authors that based on numerous aerospace programs, almost all FEM errors are in form rather than parameter values. This hypothesis is supported by the observation of the authors that it is almost never possible to ‘tune’ a FEM to match modal test results by only modifying model parameters. Model-form uncertainty cannot be directly represented by FEM input parameters nor included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using RMT, where a probability distribution is developed for the matrix ensemble of interest. The major advantage of the NPV method is that it covers errors in model form. The HPV method anchors uncertainty at the HCB component level to component modal test results by matching the HCB and test modes based on mode descriptions or other methods, and then applying differing levels of frequency variation. The specific variations depend on the confidence to which a component FEM has been validated through modal testing. The NPV method is layered on the frequency variation to match modal test self-orthogonality and cross-orthogonality (XO) results. Once the component uncertainty models are identified, they are assembled, and the uncertainty is propagated to the system level using a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis approach that generates statistics for system-level predictions This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The second example is an application to a component that is design specific to the SLS. Based on this work and other assessments, the HPV method provides another tool to the toolset used for complex system UQ analysis. From experience gathered to date using the HPV method, additional design specific applications must be investigated to provide further confidence in the validity of the HPV method of UQ analysis.

Uncertainty quantification↗

DOE OSTI2026

Methods for evaluation and treatment of data shift

This is a code repository for a set of tools for detecting and mitigating data shifts in machine learning. The goal of the tools is to provide capabilities for determining when new data sets differ from training data sets and for adapting existing models to new data or correcting data shifts (via domain adaptation). The components will be written in Python, a high-level programming language that takes advantage of the Python ecosystem of high-quality open-source packages for machine learning and signal processing.

Parikh, Nidhi↗

DOE OSTI2025

Neighborhood sociome factors and pediatric asthma exacerbations: Protective role of tree crown density and importance of pharmacy access in Chicago's south side

Abstract Background Pediatric asthma exacerbations remain a critical public health concern, particularly in historically underserved urban settings. Objective This study investigates sociome factors—the social context of disease—associated with asthma exacerbations among children living in Chicago's South Side, leveraging clinical and publicly available generalizable census tract‐level datasets from agencies including ChiVes, the City of Chicago Data Portal, EPA, Census Bureau, HUD, NOAA, and more. The aim is to uncover novel hypotheses for potential new interventions. Methods A generalized linear model assessed associations with the outcome of asthma exacerbations while accounting for clustering at the patient level. Predictors included all variables from the Sociome Data Commons, including social, environmental, behavioral, economic, housing, and school variables. Results Predictors of decreased risk included patient age (+4.8 years, −22%), tree crown density (+6% coverage, −17%), parks per acre (+0.41, −8%), and labor market engagement (+0.8 points, −9%). Conversely, predictors of increased risk included increased distance to the nearest pharmacy (+0.28 miles, +12%), limited English skills (+2.3%, +10%), higher inequality (+0.08 points, +8%), and visits in the Spring (+11%) and Fall (+20%). Conclusion The results suggest that tree crown density, a novel finding in the context of asthma exacerbations, may play a protective role. Limited access to health care facilities such as pharmacies continues to complicate care. Clinical Implications These findings provide hypotheses for future interventions for long‐standing asthma disparities.

Allergy↗

NASA NTRS1992

Decentralized control of large flexible structures by joint decoupling

A decentralized control design method is presented for large complex flexible structures by using the idea of joint decoupling. The derivation is based on a coupled substructure state-space model, which is obtained from enforcing conditions of interface compatibility and equilibrium to the substructure state-space models. It is shown that by restricting the control law to be localized state feedback and by setting the joint actuator input commands to decouple joint 'degrees of freedom' (dof) from interior dof, the global structure control design problem can be decomposed into several substructure control design problems. The substructure control gains and substructure observers are designed based on modified substructure state-space models. The controllers produced by the proposed method can operate successfully at the individual substructure level as well as at the global structure level. Therefore, not only control design but also control implementation is decentralized. Stability and performance requirement of the closed-loop system can be achieved by using any existing state feedback control design method. A two-component mass-spring damper system and a three-truss structure are used as examples to demonstrate the proposed method.

Su, Tzu-Jeng↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Creating Portfolio Management Concepts for Highly Agile and Innovative Government Research Programs Using Design Thinking and Lean Startup Methodologies

Managing a research and development (R&D) portfolio presents numerous challenges, such as prioritizing research areas, remaining agile, strategic workforce planning, and measuring return on investment, impact, and innovation. One government R&D program is charged with producing a high degree of innovative, transformational breakthroughs in aviation technology. A practical, structured methodology for strategically prioritizing emerging aviation R&D in such an environment is lacking. The existing multi-criteria decision aid tools are primarily utilized at an enterprise level, take months to set up and collect data, require large teams of experts, are used on an infrequent basis, and are not conducive to a highly innovative, high-risk portfolio. Prior to audaciously creating a new portfolio prioritization process, the exact challenges with portfolio management for R&D projects were identified using the design thinking and lean start-up methods. A key part of this discovery process was interviewing stakeholders, as well as other managers of organizations charged with producing innovative portfolios. These interviews, as well as additional techniques, were used to develop a deeper understanding of the challenges and, subsequently, lay the foundation for development of an effective portfolio prioritization process. Four potential concepts that represent key findings emerged: carefully selected criteria for portfolio assessment and selection, targeted portfolio turnover rate, dynamic portfolio prioritization framework, and streamlined transition or commercialization of R&D. Acting on any one of the resulting portfolio management concepts will increase the transparency and confidence in portfolio decisions and, ideally, result in a greater degree of transformational breakthroughs in aviation technology.

project portfolio management↗