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NASA NTRS2026

Physical Parameters of Space Mission Asteroid Targets

Ground-based characterization of asteroids that are planned or potential targets of space missions provides important data on their physical parameters and properties. Knowledge of the properties of mission targets is important especially during mission preparation and planning, as it serves to select best or suitable targets for specific purpose of a given mission, to prepare mission plans, to constrain possible mission scenarios, and to design mission experiments. Such characterization efforts may be particularly critical for flyby missions that take only limited data during the high-speed flybys of their target asteroids, but they also provide very crucial data for targets of rendezvous missions. Moreover, long-term observations taken from Earth also allows the modelling of, or constraining, processes acting on the asteroids over extended time scales. Over the past years and decades we have obtained rich data on physical parameters of 82 asteroids that are planned or potential targets of space missions. Our primary observing technique is time-resolved (lightcurve) photometry, but we use also data obtained with other techniques, such as spectroscopy, thermal or radar observations. 15 of the 82 characterized asteroids are planned or possible targets of several space missions that are in flight or preparation, such as ESA’s Hera, RAMSES and PRIAMOS, NASA’s OSIRIS-APEX, JAXA’s Hayabusa2#, DESTINY+ and Next Generation Sample Return (NGSR), the Emirates Mission to Asteroids (EMA), and Karman+’s High Frontier, but we have also characterized 67 asteroids that are potential targets of space missions for their low delta-V’s and were announced as being “of interest to NASA” in the Small-Bodies-Observations- NASA mailing list or listed on the NHATS page of “Accessible NEAs”. The sample of asteroid targets span 3 orders of magnitude in size, with absolute magnitudes H from 12.57 to 26.8, corresponding to diameters from about 10 m to about 10 km. The sample contains a variety of taxonomic types and physically or dynamically interesting objects. Among them, we have identified 5 binary asteroids and 20 tumblers (i.e., asteroids in excited, non-principal axis rotation states). Rotation periods of the characterized asteroids range from 1.45 min to 280 h, reflecting diversity of their properties and formation/evolution paths. We will present an overview of the data set and highlight several representative cases.

Petr Pravec↗
NASA NTRS1994

(abstract) MEASURE-Jupiter: Low Cost Missions to Explore Jupiter in the Post-Galileo Era

MEASURE-Jupiter is a new mission concept for the exploration of giant planets, with initial application to Jupiter. By flying sets of lightweight spacecraft with highly focused measurement objectives, it is designed to break the apparent impass in giant planet exploration beyond Cassini. The MEASURE-Jupiter concept is characterized by: 1) intensive exploration of a giant planet system, 2) multiple small missions flown in focused waves using spacecraft costing $100M to $200M, and 3) mission sets launched every 2 to 3 years. Why Jupiter? Jupiter is the most complex planetary system in the Solar System with many scientifically intriguing bodies and phenomena to explore. The Galileo mission will scratch the surface of the exploration of Jupiter, posing many questions for the MEASURE-Jupiter missions to address. Jupiter is also the easiest planet in the Outer Solar System to reach, making possible flight times of 2 years and total mission durations of 3 years or less. Concept design studies have uncovered a number of scientifically rewarding, simple, low-cost mission options. These options have the additional attraction of being able to launch on 2-year trajectories to Jupiter with low-cost Delta II expendable launch vehicles. A partial list of mission concepts studied to date include: Io Very Close Flyby, Jupiter Close Polar Pass, Mini-Orbiters, and Galilean Satellite Penetrators. Key to the realization of the MEASURE-Jupiter missions is the judicious use of the new low power consuming advanced technology and applicable systems from the Pluto Fast Flyby mission spacecraft design. Foremost of the new technologies planned for inclusion are the elements of hybrid solar array/battery power systems which make it possible to perform the identified missions without the need for Radioactive Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs). This relieves the mission design of the attendant programmatic complexities, cost, and constraints attendant with the use of RTGs.

MEASURE-Jupiter Jupiter Pluto Fast Flyby low cost ↗
NASA NTRS2020

Preparing for Human Missions to Mars: The role of ISS and Artemis as Analogs for Research and Technology Testing

The hazards of spaceflight to the human system are present in in varying degrees on different spaceflight platforms: altered gravity, isolation and confinement, distance from Earth, radiation, and hostile closed environments. A strategic view of the fidelity of hazards experienced on different platforms can shape the testing plans for human research and technology demonstration related to crew health and performance. Working across the international partnership, the International Space Station (ISS) is planning periods of modified operations to improve the fidelity of Mars simulations. To understand transit durations as an independent variable, a series of 1-year, 6-month and 30-45 day missions are being planned on ISS. Standard measurements across ISS missions of different durations, lunar missions and ground analogs offers the opportunity to distinguish different hazards and their effects in the context of the relevance to future mission concepts. The ISS partnership is planning for additional test cases that are aligned with Mars mission plans. (1) Evaluating crew performance capabilities when transitioning to gravity after long durations in microgravity representative of a Mars transit. (2) Simulating crew medical care under Mars-like autonomous operations. (3) Identification and testing of operations under communications delay and autonomy expected for Mars missions and the linked effects on behavioral health and performance of the crew. Artemis missions serve as a valuable analogs for Mars surface operations, with partial gravity and deep space radiation hazards, but with crewmembers that are probably more physically capable than their counterparts would be after a Mars transit. Getting unobtrusive data from early Artemis missions, and knowledge gained from operational experience as Artemis operations develop can improve engineering design, medical requirements and countermeasures, and ultimately ensure mission success on Mars. Linking Mars architectures with the plans and capabilities for ISS and Artemis allows us to plan to most operationally relevant tests of crew health and performance on current spaceflight missions to inform planning for future missions to Mars. By using human spaceflight platforms as well as ground simulation in an integrated way, the international community can improve exploration readiness, develop countermeasures and reduce risks of future human space missions.

International Space Station↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Depth Modeling and Simulation Analysis of Artemis Missions Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. During an extended simulation modeling phase, IMPACT generated analytical results for medical risks, and the medical resources and capabilities to address those risks, for every segment of every crewed Artemis mission. This presentation will highlight the reliability, consistency and validity of IMPACT’s computational modeling techniques and will showcase the library of analytical outcomes generated for the Artemis missions. OVERVIEW During the early stages of IMPACT’s design, architecture and technical requirements collection, “scenarios” (use cases) - achievement goals required for acceptance testing, were identified by stakeholders. IMPACT successfully completed the scenario testing requirements and undertook an extensive operational run phase utilizing a wide range of input combinations with a goal of delivering a cohesive, trustworthy, reliable, vast, and diverse body of evidence. The intent of these modeling runs was to validate consistency in output, ensure solidity of executable operations and to streamline processes by identifying areas requiring efficiency improvements. Using the many missions of Artemis, IMPACT ran variations of operational runs to assess the output for acceptable, as well as unusual characteristics. This rigorous long-term “shakedown” analysis was implemented to help build a collective body of evidence to aid in securing a high level of confidence, reliability, and validity in the output, whether from the applicational components of IMPACT, or the entirety of the operational process. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION This presentation will discuss the various categories of input criteria; the comparisons in the application of these input criteria to various Artemis missions; the preparation and collection of the body of evidence, and reliability of the computational modeling techniques. This paper serves as an initial analytical overview of IMPACT’s probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk outputs covering Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

Crew Composition↗
NASA NTRS1962

Empire. a study of early manned interplanetary missions final report, may 26 - nov. 25, 1962

This report summarizes the investigations and results of the EMPIRE Study Program undertaken by Aeronutronic Division of Ford Motor Company for the Future Projects Office, Marshall Space Flight Center, under Contract NAS8-5025. The dual planet flyby missions of the Crocco and Symmetric trajectory classes are discussed. The Crocco mission with an August 1971 launch window requires an interplanetary injection velocity increment of i0.i km/sec, has a return velocity of 13.5 km/sec, and takes approximately 400 days. The Symmetric mission with a July 1970 launch window has an injection velocity increment of 5.3 km/sec, a return velocity of 15.8 km/sec, and takes approximately 630 days. Additional results of the trajectory studies and abort trajectories are reported. The guidance and navigation subsystem, midcourse corrections, and planetary approach corrections are discussed. A detailed analysis of the reentry phase of EMPIRE includes consideration of an Apollo-type, a Drag Brake, and a lifting-type reentry vehicle to return the six-man crew at mission completion or in an aborted condition. The High L/D reentry vehicle is used in the missions considered. The various technological areas required for design criteria are developed and several spacecraft designs are considered. The all chemical propulsion Crocco system is discarded due to weight, complexity, and cost. The nuclear injected Crocco is treated in a similar manner. The lower energy injection for the Symmetric Mission leads to the feasibility of a nuclear injected vehicle with an Earth orbit weight of about 180,000 kilograms (400,000 pounds) before interplanetary transit. In addition, two chemical symmetric vehicles are treated. Conservative radiation exposures are derived, for the 630 day mission, of less than 200 REM and a polyethelene radiation shelter is designed. Scientific aspects of the missions are discussed. Mission Success Probabilities are presented for the various missions considered and for Saturn C-5, Nova, and Super-Nova Earth launch vehicles in light of possible development. The need for acceleration of nuclear rocket engine developments and auxiliary power developments is indicated. Definition of a larger nuclear engine of the order of 200,000 pounds thrust and about 800 seconds burning time or 50,000 pound thrust and 3600 seconds burning time is indicated for the Symmetric Mission in 1970 (energy requirements are higher in 1972 and for later launch due to the less favorable position of Mars)_ Immediate development of this advanced nuclear propulsion capability is recommended. A Development Plan and Funding Schedule is given for the 1970 launch window pinpointing the critical development areas and indicating a total program cost of $12.6 billion independent of other programmed R&D costs. In conclusion, technological feasibility for an early manned dual planet Mars-Venus flyby is believed to be demonstrated in this study. Several areas of accelerated development and experimental confirmation of theory are pinpointed. The necessary funding and development of Nova or orbital operations capability with Saturn C-5's is required. The 1970 launch window appears to offer the least expensive Symmetric Mission for several years into the 1980's.

F. P. Dixon↗
NASA NTRS1981

Missions to comets - The perspective in 1980

The design and performance characteristics of deep space missions to study comets are discussed. Following a brief review of the scientific objectives of cometary missions and the problems posed by cometary orbits and the cometary environment to designers of space missions, consideration is given to the spacecraft and planned trajectories of cometary missions either planned or under consideration at one time. The missions include the Gioto mission, a Halley fly-through to be launched by ESA which developed out of the defunct NASA/ESA Halley/Tempel 2 rendezvous mission; the Japanese Planet A and Soviet/French flyby missions to Halley; and the Halley Intercept Mission, studied by NASA but not approved. It is pointed out that although much new information will be obtained from the Halley flyby missions, the second generation of cometary missions will undoubtedly require a rendezvous mission such as the one NASA is still studying.

Wilkening, L. L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Galileo mission planning for Low Gain Antenna based operations

The Galileo mission operations concept is undergoing substantial redesign, necessitated by the deployment failure of the High Gain Antenna, while the spacecraft is on its way to Jupiter. The new design applies state-of-the-art technology and processes to increase the telemetry rate available through the Low Gain Antenna and to increase the information density of the telemetry. This paper describes the mission planning process being developed as part of this redesign. Principal topics include a brief description of the new mission concept and anticipated science return (these have been covered more extensively in earlier papers), identification of key drivers on the mission planning process, a description of the process and its implementation schedule, a discussion of the application of automated mission planning tool to the process, and a status report on mission planning work to date. Galileo enhancements include extensive reprogramming of on-board computers and substantial hard ware and software upgrades for the Deep Space Network (DSN). The principal mode of operation will be onboard recording of science data followed by extended playback periods. A variety of techniques will be used to compress and edit the data both before recording and during playback. A highly-compressed real-time science data stream will also be important. The telemetry rate will be increased using advanced coding techniques and advanced receivers. Galileo mission planning for orbital operations now involves partitioning of several scarce resources. Particularly difficult are division of the telemetry among the many users (eleven instruments, radio science, engineering monitoring, and navigation) and allocation of space on the tape recorder at each of the ten satellite encounters. The planning process is complicated by uncertainty in forecast performance of the DSN modifications and the non-deterministic nature of the new data compression schemes. Key mission planning steps include quantifying resource or capabilities to be allocated, prioritizing science observations and estimating resource needs for each, working inter-and intra-orbit trades of these resources among the Project elements, and planning real-time science activity. The first major mission planning activity, a high level, orbit-by-orbit allocation of resources among science objectives, has already been completed; and results are illustrated in the paper. To make efficient use of limited resources, Galileo mission planning will rely on automated mission planning tools capable of dealing with interactions among time-varying downlink capability, real-time science and engineering data transmission, and playback of recorded data. A new generic mission planning tool is being adapted for this purpose.

Gershman, R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Mission operations management

Redefining the approach and philosophy that operations management uses to define, develop, and implement space missions will be a central element in achieving high efficiency mission operations for the future. The goal of a cost effective space operations program cannot be realized if the attitudes and methodologies we currently employ to plan, develop, and manage space missions do not change. A management philosophy that is in synch with the environment in terms of budget, technology, and science objectives must be developed. Changing our basic perception of mission operations will require a shift in the way we view the mission. This requires a transition from current practices of viewing the mission as a unique end product, to a 'mission development concept' built on the visualization of the end-to-end mission. To achieve this change we must define realistic mission success criteria and develop pragmatic approaches to achieve our goals. Custom mission development for all but the largest and most unique programs is not practical in the current budget environment, and we simply do not have the resources to implement all of our planned science programs. We need to shift our management focus to allow us the opportunity make use of methodologies and approaches which are based on common building blocks that can be utilized in the space, ground, and mission unique segments of all missions.

Rocco, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Integrated Network Architecture for NASA's Orion Missions

NASA is planning a series of short and long duration human and robotic missions to explore the Moon and then Mars. The series of missions will begin with a new crew exploration vehicle (called Orion) that will initially provide crew exchange and cargo supply support to the International Space Station (ISS) and then become a human conveyance for travel to the Moon. The Orion vehicle will be mounted atop the Ares I launch vehicle for a series of pre-launch tests and then launched and inserted into low Earth orbit (LEO) for crew exchange missions to the ISS. The Orion and Ares I comprise the initial vehicles in the Constellation system of systems that later includes Ares V, Earth departure stage, lunar lander, and other lunar surface systems for the lunar exploration missions. These key systems will enable the lunar surface exploration missions to be initiated in 2018. The complexity of the Constellation system of systems and missions will require a communication and navigation infrastructure to provide low and high rate forward and return communication services, tracking services, and ground network services. The infrastructure must provide robust, reliable, safe, sustainable, and autonomous operations at minimum cost while maximizing the exploration capabilities and science return. The infrastructure will be based on a network of networks architecture that will integrate NASA legacy communication, modified elements, and navigation systems. New networks will be added to extend communication, navigation, and timing services for the Moon missions. Internet protocol (IP) and network management systems within the networks will enable interoperability throughout the Constellation system of systems. An integrated network architecture has developed based on the emerging Constellation requirements for Orion missions. The architecture, as presented in this paper, addresses the early Orion missions to the ISS with communication, navigation, and network services over five phases of a mission: pre-launch, launch from T0 to T+6.5 min, launch from T+6.5 min to 12 min, in LEO for rendezvous and docking with ISS, and return to Earth. The network of networks that supports the mission during each of these phases and the concepts of operations during those phases are developed as a high level operational concepts graphic called OV-1, an architecture diagram type described in the Department of Defense Architecture Framework (DoDAF). Additional operational views on organizational relationships (OV-4), operational activities (OV-5), and operational node connectivity (OV-2) are also discussed. The system interfaces view (SV-1) that provides the communication and navigation services to Orion is also included and described. The challenges of architecting integrated network architecture for the NASA Orion missions are highlighted.

Bhasin, Kul B.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Mission Reliability Estimation for Repairable Robot Teams

A mission reliability estimation method has been designed to translate mission requirements into choices of robot modules in order to configure a multi-robot team to have high reliability at minimal cost. In order to build cost-effective robot teams for long-term missions, one must be able to compare alternative design paradigms in a principled way by comparing the reliability of different robot models and robot team configurations. Core modules have been created including: a probabilistic module with reliability-cost characteristics, a method for combining the characteristics of multiple modules to determine an overall reliability-cost characteristic, and a method for the generation of legitimate module combinations based on mission specifications and the selection of the best of the resulting combinations from a cost-reliability standpoint. The developed methodology can be used to predict the probability of a mission being completed, given information about the components used to build the robots, as well as information about the mission tasks. In the research for this innovation, sample robot missions were examined and compared to the performance of robot teams with different numbers of robots and different numbers of spare components. Data that a mission designer would need was factored in, such as whether it would be better to have a spare robot versus an equivalent number of spare parts, or if mission cost can be reduced while maintaining reliability using spares. This analytical model was applied to an example robot mission, examining the cost-reliability tradeoffs among different team configurations. Particularly scrutinized were teams using either redundancy (spare robots) or repairability (spare components). Using conservative estimates of the cost-reliability relationship, results show that it is possible to significantly reduce the cost of a robotic mission by using cheaper, lower-reliability components and providing spares. This suggests that the current design paradigm of building a minimal number of highly robust robots may not be the best way to design robots for extended missions.

Trebi-Ollennu, Ashitey↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be used to help assess risk, develop mitigation strategies, and optimize medical systems for exploration space flight missions.

Kerstman, Eric↗
NASA NTRS2012

Missions to Near-Earth Asteroids: Implications for Exploration, Science, Resource Utilization, and Planetary Defense

Introduction: In 2009 the Augustine Commission identified near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) as high profile destinations for human exploration missions beyond the Earth-Moon system as part of the Flexible Path. More recently the U.S. presidential administration directed NASA to include NEAs as destinations for future human exploration with the goal of sending astronauts to a NEA in the mid to late 2020s. This directive became part of the official National Space Policy of the United States of America as of June 28, 2010. NEA Space-Based Survey and Robotic Precursor Missions: The most suitable targets for human missions are NEAs in Earth-like orbits with long synodic periods. However, these mission candidates are often not observable from Earth until the timeframe of their most favorable human mission opportunities, which does not provide an appropriate amount of time for mission development. A space-based survey telescope could more efficiently find these targets in a timely, affordable manner. Such a system is not only able to discover new objects, but also track and characterize objects of interest for human space flight consideration. Those objects with characteristic signatures representative of volatile-rich or metallic materials will be considered as top candidates for further investigation due to their potential for resource utilization and scientific discovery. Once suitable candidates have been identified, precursor spacecraft are required to perform basic reconnaissance of a few NEAs under consideration for the human-led mission. Robotic spacecraft will assess targets for potential hazards that may pose a risk to the deep space transportation vehicle, its deployable assets, and the crew. Additionally, the information obtained about the NEA's basic physical characteristics will be crucial for planning operational activities, designing in-depth scientific/engineering investigations, and identifying sites on the NEA for sample collection. Human Exploration Considerations: These missions would be the first human expeditions to interplanetary bodies beyond the Earth-Moon system and would prove useful for testing technologies required for human missions to Mars, Phobos and Deimos, and other Solar System destinations. Current analyses of operational concepts suggest that stay times of 15 to 30 days may be possible at a NEA with total mission duration limits of 180 days or less. Hence, these missions would undoubtedly provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while simultaneously conducting detailed investigations of these primitive objects with instruments and equipment that exceed the mass and power capabilities delivered by robotic spacecraft. All of these activities will be vital for refinement of resource characterization/identification and development of extraction/utilization technologies to be used on airless bodies under low- or micro-gravity conditions. In addition, gaining enhanced understanding of a NEA s geotechnical properties and its gross internal structure will assist the development of hazard mitigation techniques for planetary defense. Conclusions: The scientific, resource utilization, and hazard mitigation benefits, along with the programmatic and operational benefits of a human venture beyond the Earth-Moon system, make a piloted sample return mission to a NEA using NASA s proposed human exploration systems a compelling endeavor.

Abell, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Cost Analysis In A Multi-Mission Operations Environment

Spacecraft control centers have evolved from dedicated, single-mission or single missiontype support to multi-mission, service-oriented support for operating a variety of mission types. At the same time, available money for projects is shrinking and competition for new missions is increasing. These factors drive the need for an accurate and flexible model to support estimating service costs for new or extended missions; the cost model in turn drives the need for an accurate and efficient approach to service cost analysis. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides operations services to a variety of customers around the world. HOSC customers range from launch vehicle test flights; to International Space Station (ISS) payloads; to small, short duration missions; and has included long duration flagship missions. The HOSC recently completed a detailed analysis of service costs as part of the development of a complete service cost model. The cost analysis process required the team to address a number of issues. One of the primary issues involves the difficulty of reverse engineering individual mission costs in a highly efficient multimission environment, along with a related issue of the value of detailed metrics or data to the cost model versus the cost of obtaining accurate data. Another concern is the difficulty of balancing costs between missions of different types and size and extrapolating costs to different mission types. The cost analysis also had to address issues relating to providing shared, cloud-like services in a government environment, and then assigning an uncertainty or risk factor to cost estimates that are based on current technology, but will be executed using future technology. Finally the cost analysis needed to consider how to validate the resulting cost models taking into account the non-homogeneous nature of the available cost data and the decreasing flight rate. This paper presents the issues encountered during the HOSC cost analysis process, and the associated lessons learned. These lessons can be used when planning for a new multi-mission operations center or in the transformation from a dedicated control center to multi-center operations, as an aid in defining processes that support future cost analysis and estimation. The lessons can also be used by mature serviceoriented, multi-mission control centers to streamline or refine their cost analysis process.

Newhouse, M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Factors Contributing to Unsuccessful Re-Proposed Missions

JPL often re-proposes unselected missions after technology advancement and mission concept development. Feedback given as major and minor weaknesses and strengths in prior rounds are addressed in later versions of proposals. This feedback provides insight into the factors that affect perceptions of risk and value. My research involved an in-depth case study of an original mission, Mission-A, and the re-proposed mission, Mission-B, after a multi-year technology development effort.In 2002, Mission-A was rated as Category III, with above average science merit (top score) and High Risk. To reduce risk, NASA invested technology development funds. In 2006 the re-formulated Mission-A mission, renamed Mission-B, was rated Category IV, good to very good science, and Medium Risk. While the risk rating improved from Mission-A to Mission-B, the overall results were worse.

risk↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory Mission

The Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission, launched in September 2011, successfully completed its Primary Science Mission in June 2012 and is currently in Extended Mission operations. Competitively selected under a NASA Announcement of Opportunity in December 2007, GRAIL is a Discovery Program mission subject to a mandatory project cost cap. The purpose of the mission is to precisely map the gravitational field of the Moon to reveal its internal structure from crust to core, determine its thermal evolution, and extend this knowledge to other planets. The mission uses twin spacecraft flying in tandem to provide the gravity map. The GRAIL Flight System, consisting of the spacecraft and payload, was developed based on significant heritage from previous missions such an experimental U.S. Air Force satellite, the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) mission, and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. The Mission Operations System (MOS) was based on high-heritage multimission operations developed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Lockheed Martin. Both the Flight System and MOS were adapted to meet the unique challenges posed by the GRAIL mission design. This paper summarizes the implementation challenges and accomplishments of getting GRAIL ready for launch. It also discusses the in-flight challenges and experiences of operating two spacecraft, and mission results.

GRAIL↗
NASA NTRS2016

Utilizing the ISS Mission as a Testbed to Develop Cognitive Communications Systems

The ISS provides an excellent opportunity for pioneering artificial intelligence software to meet the challenges of real-time communications (comm) link management. This opportunity empowers the ISS Program to forge a testbed for developing cognitive communications systems for the benefit of the ISS mission, manned Low Earth Orbit (LEO) science programs and future planetary exploration programs. In November, 1998, the Flight Operations Directorate (FOD) started the ISS Antenna Manager (IAM) project to develop a single processor supporting multiple comm satellite tracking for two different antenna systems. Further, the processor was developed to be highly adaptable as it supported the ISS mission through all assembly stages. The ISS mission mandated communications specialists with complete knowledge of when the ISS was about to lose or gain comm link service. The current specialty mandated cognizance of large sun-tracking solar arrays and thermal management panels in addition to the highly-dynamic satellite service schedules and rise/set tables. This mission requirement makes the ISS the ideal communications management analogue for future LEO space station and long-duration planetary exploration missions. Future missions, with their precision-pointed, dynamic, laser-based comm links, require complete autonomy for managing high-data rate communications systems. Development of cognitive communications management systems that permit any crew member or payload science specialist, regardless of experience level, to control communications is one of the greater benefits the ISS can offer new space exploration programs. The IAM project met a new mission requirement never previously levied against US space-born communications systems management: process and display the orientation of large solar arrays and thermal control panels based on real-time joint angle telemetry. However, IAM leaves the actual communications availability assessment to human judgement, which introduces unwanted variability because each specialist has a different core of experience with comm link performance. Because the ISS utilizes two different frequency bands, dynamic structure can be occasionally translucent at one frequency while it can completely interdict service at the other frequency. The impact of articulating structure on the comm link can depend on its orientation at the time it impinges on the link. It can become easy for a human specialist to cross-associate experience at one frequency with experience at the other frequency. Additionally, the specialist's experience is incremental, occurring one nine-hour shift at a time. Only the IAM processor experiences the complete 24x7x365 communications link performance for both communications links but, it has no "learning capability." If the IAM processor could be endowed with a cognitive ability to remember past structure-induced comm link outages, based on its knowledge of the ISS position, attitude, communications gear, array joint angles and tracking accuracy, it could convey such experience to the human operator. It could also use its learned communications link behaviors to accurately convey the availability of future communications sessions. Further, the tool could remember how accurately or inaccurately it predicted availability and correct future predictions based on past performance. The IAM tool could learn frequency-specific impacts due to spacecraft structures and pass that information along as "experience." Such development would provide a single artificial intelligence processor that could provide two different experience bases. If it also "knew" the satellite service schedule, it could distinguish structure blockage from schedule or planet blockage and then quickly switch to another satellite. Alternatively, just as a human operator could judge, a cognizant comm system based on the IAM model could "know" that the blockage is not going to last very long and continue tracking a comm satellite, waiting for it to track away from structure. Ultimately, once this capability was fully developed and tested in the Mission Control Center, it could be transferred on-orbit to support development of operations concepts that include more advanced cognitive communications systems. Future applications of this capability are easily foreseen because even more dynamic satellite constellations with more nodes and greater capability are coming. Currently, the ISS fully employs its high-data-rate return link for harvesting payload science. In the coming months, it will double that data rate and is forecast to fully utilize that capability. Already there is talk of an upgrade that quadruples the current data rate allocated to ISS payload science before the end of its mission and laser comm links have already been tested from the ISS. Every data rate upgrade mandates more complicated and sensitive communications equipment which implies greater expertise invested in the human operator. Future on-orbit cognizant comm systems will be needed to meet greater performance demands aboard larger, far more complicated spacecraft. In the LEO environment, the old-style one-satellite-per-spacecraft operations concept will give way to a new concept of a single customer spacecraft simultaneously using multiple comm satellites. Much more highly-dynamic manned LEO missions with decades of crew members potentially increase the demand for communications link performance. A cognizant on-board communications system will meet advanced communications demands from future LEO missions and future planetary missions. The ISS has fledgling components of future exploration programs, both LEO and planetary. Further, the Flight Operations Directorate, through the IAM project, has already begun to develop a communications management system that attempts to solve advanced problems ideally represented by dynamic structure impacting scheduled satellite service. With an earnest project to integrate artificial intelligence into the IAM processor, the ISS Program could develop a cognizant communications system that could be adapted and transferred to future on-orbit avionics designs.

Jackson, Dan↗
NASA NTRS2019

Small-Satellite Mission Failure Rates

The purpose of this report is to determine the failure rate of small-satellite missions launched between the years 2000 and 2016. This analysis considers the rates of both partial and total mission failure, as well as the failures attributable to failure of the launch vehicle. This study observed that between the years of 2000 to 2016, 41.3% of all small satellites launched failed or partially failed. Of these small satellite missions, 24.2% were total mission failures, another 11% were partial mission failures, and 6.1% were launch vehicle failures. The small satellite failure data reveals an increase in the failure rate as the yearly launch rate has increased. The period 2000 to 2008 averaged 15 launches per year, during which 28.6% of the small satellite missions failed or partially failed. The period from 2009 to 2016 averaged 48 launches per year, during which 42.6% of the small satellite missions failed or partially failed. The launch vehicle failure rate for both periods was the same at around 6.1%. The implication is that for modern small satellite missions, almost one out of every two small satellite missions will result in either a total or a partial mission failure. Counting the partial mission successes as “successful missions” reduces the failure rate, but only to 38.2% for the period 2009 to 2016.

Small Satellite↗
NASA NTRS2019

Operations of the Optical Communications Demonstration for the Orion EM-2 Mission

The GSFC implementation of an Optical Communication System to demonstrate an operational optical communication link for Orion EM-2. It will serve as a base for providing an operational optical communications capability for future Orion missions. GSFC plans to maintain a development path for the optical communication flight terminal to allow commercialization and implementation on future Orion missions. The Orion optical module part of the optical communications flight terminal and its control electronics have a common architecture with the ILLUMA-T optical terminal provided by GSFC for use on the ISS. The plan is to flow data from Orion through the Optical Communication Fight Terminal to the Optical Communication Ground Terminal and reverse. NASA's Orion spacecraft is an exploratory vehicle designed for longer-duration flights beyond the Moon. Following Orion's Exploration Mission-1 (EM-1), during which the spacecraft will travel beyond the Moon, enter a distant retrograde orbit around the Moon and return to Earth unmanned, Exploration Mission-2 (EM-2) will see a crewed spacecraft complete a slightly different flight path. First crewed test flight of the Orion spacecraft, currently targeting a June 30, 2022 launch. The mission involves: One revolution in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) parking orbit to verify basic Orion systems functionality and deploy solar arrays. A single 42-hour Highly Elliptical Orbit (HEO) intermediate checkout orbit allows characterization of the Orion vehicle system performance prior to committing to a cis-lunar flight. Trans Lunar Injection (TLI) burn using Orion Service Module (SM) main engine, which sends Orion on a lunar flyby and free return. Skip reentry at lunar return velocities to splashdown off the coast of San Diego. Total mission duration is approximately 10 days. EM-2 is the first crewed mission of the Orion Spacecraft that crew brings more video up/downloads, file transfers, and real-time chats with family back home and high-rate communications enables live HD streaming for Crew conferences, Public Affairs Office (PAO) events, and significant mission events. Also still collecting vehicle data on numerous Orion subsystems via Development Flight Instrumentation (DFI) allows large data volume returns sooner for DFI and future science payloads, as opposed to waiting for end-of-mission. O2O is a demonstration of operational utility system tested as a Developmental Test Objective (DTO) and not required to meet mission requirements/success/ Flight Test Objectives (FTO). EM-2 architecture is as close to future mission operational architecture as possible.Orion subsystems (video, DFI, etc.) expected to generate ~250 GB of data in the first 24 hours of flight. Total data generated over the mission estimated to be more than 400 GBUsing S-Band alone, Orion limited to ~ 6GB of data downlink per day. Because of this limitation, Orion is planning to limit live video downlinks on EM-1 in order to downlink high priority fileswith 1 hour/day of Optical Communication, Orion could downlink ~6x more data per day (~ 36GB/day).The optical communication system is capable of multiple data rates up to at least 80 Mbps downlink for the transfer of Orion data to Earth while Orion is operating in the lunar vicinity.

Optical Communication↗