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We have developed a maximum likelihood method to estimate a set of data uncertainty adjustment parameters, iccluding scaling factors and additive variances and covariances, for multivariate Earth rotation series.
In this paper, we propose and investigate the performance of two novel shrinkage estimators for bioburden density estimation in planetary protection. The estimators are based on the regularized differentiation of a cumulative count of colony forming units collected throughout the data collecting session or the life cycle of the entire mission. The regularized differentiation recasts the problem of bioburden density estimation as a linear least squares problem. The least squares problem is then solved through regularization techniques, such as truncated singular value decomposition and penalized least squares. The regularization is necessary to avoid noise amplification during the differentiation of noisy data. The two regularization estimators are compared with four other commonly used estimators to simultaneously evaluate the means of multivariable independent Poisson distributions: the maximum likelihood, noninformative Bayes estimator with Jeffreys prior, Empirical Bayes using conjugate gamma-Poisson model with gamma parameters selected by method of moments, and the Clevenson-Zidek estimator. It is shown through computer-simulated data that the regularized differentiation based on ridge regression has the smallest mean-squared error among all estimators. The analysis of shrinkage mechanism implemented by regularized differentiation is performed, and it is shown that the regularized differentiation amounts to performing a weighted averaging of all the samples. The weights are determined by the regularization parameter automatically selected by the L-curve technique. Since the method of least squares makes no distributional assumptions about the data, it presents an attractive technique for bioburden density estimation when there are concerns about the misspecification of the distributional model. The paper concludes with the analysis of the bioburden data collected during InSight mission and directions for future work.
Observations of the chlorofluorocarbon CFCl3 obtained several times daily over the period July 1978 to June 1981 at Adrigole, Ireland; Ragged Point, Barbados; Point Matatula, American Samoa; and Cape Grim, Tasmania are reported. In addition, observations at Cape Meares, Oregon are given for the period January 1980 to June 1981. On January 1, 1980, the average mixing ratio of CFCl3 in the lower troposphere is esimated to have been 168 pptv, and this is calculated to have been increasing 5.7 percent annually. Assuming that the only destruction of CFCl3 occurs in the stratosphere, the lifetime, on January 1, 1980, estimated by a trend technique is 83 + 73, or -27 years; the lifetime estimated from the global inventory of CFCl3 is to + 89 or -25 years. The maximum likelihood current lifetime estimate obtained by combining the estimates from both analysis techniques is 78 years.
The problem of estimating parameters of dynamic systems is addressed in order to present the theoretical basis of system identification and parameter estimation in a manner that is complete and rigorous, yet understandable with minimal prerequisites. Maximum likelihood and related estimators are highlighted. The approach used requires familiarity with calculus, linear algebra, and probability, but does not require knowledge of stochastic processes or functional analysis. The treatment emphasizes unification of the various areas in estimation in dynamic systems is treated as a direct outgrowth of the static system theory. Topics covered include basic concepts and definitions; numerical optimization methods; probability; statistical estimators; estimation in static systems; stochastic processes; state estimation in dynamic systems; output error, filter error, and equation error methods of parameter estimation in dynamic systems, and the accuracy of the estimates.
Methods for the recovery of winds near the surface of the ocean from measurements of the normalized radar backscattering cross section must recognize and make use of the statistics (i.e., the sampling variability) of the backscatter measurements. Radar backscatter values from a scatterometer are random variables with expected values given by a model. A model relates backscatter to properties of the waves on the ocean, which are in turn generated by the winds in the atmospheric marine boundary layer. The effective wind speed and direction at a known height for a neutrally stratified atmosphere are the values to be recovered from the model. The probability density function for the backscatter values is a normal probability distribution with the notable feature that the variance is a known function of the expected value. The sources of signal variability, the effects of this variability on the wind speed estimation, and criteria for the acceptance or rejection of models are discussed. A modified maximum likelihood method for estimating wind vectors is described. Ways to make corrections for the kinds of errors found for the Seasat SASS model function are described, and applications to a new scatterometer are given.
A software system for autonomous operation of a Mars rover is composed of several key algorithms that enable the rover to accurately follow a designated path, compensate for slippage of its wheels on terrain, and reach intended goals. The techniques implemented by the algorithms are visual odometry, full vehicle kinematics, a Kalman filter, and path following with slip compensation. The visual-odometry algorithm tracks distinctive scene features in stereo imagery to estimate rover motion between successively acquired stereo image pairs, by use of a maximum-likelihood motion-estimation algorithm. The full-vehicle kinematics algorithm estimates motion, with a no-slip assumption, from measured wheel rates, steering angles, and angles of rockers and bogies in the rover suspension system. The Kalman filter merges data from an inertial measurement unit (IMU) and the visual-odometry algorithm. The merged estimate is then compared to the kinematic estimate to determine whether and how much slippage has occurred. The kinematic estimate is used to complement the Kalman-filter estimate if no statistically significant slippage has occurred. If slippage has occurred, then a slip vector is calculated by subtracting the current Kalman filter estimate from the kinematic estimate. This slip vector is then used, in conjunction with the inverse kinematics, to determine the wheel velocities and steering angles needed to compensate for slip and follow the desired path.
The prior distribution of CLASSY component purities is studied, and this information incorporated into maximum likelihood crop proportion estimators. The method is tested on Transition Year spring small grain segments.
A document describes a multi-field wavefront control (WFC) procedure for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) on-orbit optical telescope element (OTE) fine-phasing using wavefront measurements at the NIRCam pupil. The control is applied to JWST primary mirror (PM) segments and secondary mirror (SM) simultaneously with a carefully selected ordering. Through computer simulations, the multi-field WFC procedure shows that it can reduce the initial system wavefront error (WFE), as caused by random initial system misalignments within the JWST fine-phasing error budget, from a few dozen micrometers to below 50 nm across the entire NIRCam Field of View, and the WFC procedure is also computationally stable as the Monte-Carlo simulations indicate. With the incorporation of a Kalman Filter (KF) as an optical state estimator into the WFC process, the robustness of the JWST OTE alignment process can be further improved. In the presence of some large optical misalignments, the Kalman state estimator can provide a reasonable estimate of the optical state, especially for those degrees of freedom that have a significant impact on the system WFE. The state estimate allows for a few corrections to the optical state to push the system towards its nominal state, and the result is that a large part of the WFE can be eliminated in this step. When the multi-field WFC procedure is applied after Kalman state estimate and correction, the stability of fine-phasing control is much more certain. Kalman Filter has been successfully applied to diverse applications as a robust and optimal state estimator. In the context of space-based optical system alignment based on wavefront measurements, a KF state estimator can combine all available wavefront measurements, past and present, as well as measurement and actuation error statistics to generate a Maximum-Likelihood optimal state estimator. The strength and flexibility of the KF algorithm make it attractive for use in real-time optical system alignment when WFC alone cannot effectively align the system.
Maximum likelihood parameter identification is used to estimate the aerodynamic coefficients of a 'flying' aircraft model which is mounted in a transonic wind tunnel by a system of cables and pulleys. The model's motion is governed by both cable and aerodynamic forces, where the parameters to be identified are functions of the aerodynamic forces but cable forces greatly predominate. The test data were successfully processed assuming a linear equation model in the identification procedure. In one instance, the procedure was able to detect a failing measurement instrument. The final parameter estimates are compared to estimates obtained in independent tests of a similar aircraft model.
We present a Gibbs sampling solution to the mapmaking problem for cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements that builds on existing destriping methodology. Gibbs sampling breaks the computationally heavy destriping problem into two separate steps: noise filtering and map binning. Considered as two separate steps, both are computationally much cheaper than solving the combined problem. This provides a huge performance benefit as compared to traditional methods and it allows us, for the first time, to bring the destriping baseline length to a single sample. Here, we applied the Gibbs procedure to simulated Planck 30 GHz data. We find that gaps in the time-ordered data are handled efficiently by filling them in with simulated noise as part of the Gibbs process. The Gibbs procedure yields a chain of map samples, from which we are able to compute the posterior mean as a best-estimate map. The variation in the chain provides information on the correlated residual noise, without the need to construct a full noise covariance matrix. However, if only a single maximum-likelihood frequency map estimate is required, we find that traditional conjugate gradient solvers converge much faster than a Gibbs sampler in terms of the total number of iterations. The conceptual advantages of the Gibbs sampling approach lies in statistically well-defined error propagation and systematic error correction. This methodology thus forms the conceptual basis for the mapmaking algorithm employed in the BEYONDPLANCK framework, which implements the first end-to-end Bayesian analysis pipeline for CMB observations.
There is a necessity of having an automatic procedure for reliable estimation of the quality of the measurement of particle size from QELS (Quasi-Elastic Light Scattering). Getting the measurement itself, before any error estimates can be made, is a problem because it is obtained by a very indirect measurement of a signal derived from the motion of particles in the system and requires the solution of an inverse problem. The eigenvalue structure of the transform that generates the signal is such that an arbitrarily small amount of noise can obliterate parts of any practical inversion spectrum. This project uses the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) as a framework to generate a theory and a functioning set of software to oversee the measurement process and extract the particle size information, while at the same time providing error estimates for those measurements. The theory involved verifying a correct form of the covariance matrix for the noise on the measurement and then estimating particle size parameters using a modified histogram approach.
A real-time digital signal combining system for use with array feeds is proposed. The combining system attempts to compensate for signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) loss resulting from antenna deformations induced by gravitational and atmospheric effects. The combining weights are obtained directly from the observed residual carrier samples in each channel using a 'sliding-window' implementation of a maximum-likelihood (ML) parameter estimator. It is shown that with averaging times of about 0.1 s, combining loss for a seven-element array can be limited to about 0.1 dB in a realistic operational environment. This result suggests that the real-time combining system proposed here is capable of recovering virtually all of the signal power captured by the array feed, even in the presence of severe wind gusts and similar disturbances.
Kinetic rates at different temperatures and the associated Arrhenius parameters, whenever Arrhenius law is obeyed, are efficiently estimated by applying maximum likelihood analysis to waiting times collected using the temperature programmed molecular dynamics method. When transitions involving many activated pathways are available in the dataset, their rates may be calculated using the same collection of waiting times. Arrhenius behaviour is ascertained by comparing rates at the sampled temperatures with ones from the Arrhenius expression. Three prototype systems with corrugated energy landscapes, namely, solvated alanine dipeptide, diffusion at the metal-solvent interphase, and lithium diffusion in silicon, are studied to highlight various aspects of the method. The method becomes particularly appealing when the Arrhenius parameters can be used to find rates at low temperatures where transitions are rare. Systematic coarse-graining of states can further extend the time scales accessible to the method. Good estimates for the rate parameters are obtained with 500-1000 waiting times.
This study describes the identification, modelling, and removal of previously unexplained systematic effects in the polarization data of the Planck High Frequency Instrument (HFI) on large angular scales, including new mapmaking and calibration procedures, new and more complete end-to-end simulations, and a set of robust internal consistency checks on the resulting maps. These maps, at 100, 143, 217, and 353 GHz, are early versions of those that will be released in final form later in 2016. The improvements allow us to determine the cosmic reionization optical depth τ using, for the first time, the low-multipole EE data from HFI, reducing significantly the central value and uncertainty, and hence the upper limit. Two different likelihood procedures are used to constrain τ from two estimators of the CMB E- and B-mode angular power spectra at 100 and 143 GHz, after debiasing the spectra from a small remaining systematic contamination. These all give fully consistent results. A further consistency test is performed using cross-correlations derived from the Low Frequency Instrument maps of the Planck 2015 data release and the new HFI data. For this purpose, end-to-end analyses of systematic effects from the two instruments are used to demonstrate the near independence of their dominant systematic error residuals. The tightest result comes from the HFI-based τ posterior distribution using the maximum likelihood power spectrum estimator from EE data only, giving a value 0.055 ± 0.009. Finally, in a companion paper these results are discussed in the context of the best-fit PlanckΛCDM cosmological model and recent models of reionization.
We use a sample of satellite galaxies to demonstrate the existence of extended massive dark halos around spiral galaxies. Isolated spirals with rotation velocities near 250 km/s have a typical halo mass within 200 kpc of 1.5-2.6 x 10(exp 12) solar mass (90% confidence range for H(sub 0) = 75 km/s/Mpc). This result is most easily derived using standard mass estimator techniques, but such techniques do not account for the strong observational selection effects in the sample, nor for the extended mass distributions that the data imply. These complications can be addressed using scale-free models similar to those previously employed to study binary galaxies. When satellite velocities are assumed isotropic, both methods imply massive and extended halos. However, the derived masses depend sensitively on the assumed shape of satellite orbits. Furthermore, both methods ignore the fact that many of the satellites in the sample have orbital periods comparable to the Hubble time. The orbital phases of such satellites cannot be random, and their distribution in radius cannot be freely adjusted; rather these properties reflect ongoing infall onto the outer halos of their primaries. We use detailed dynamical models for halo formation to evaluate these problems, and we devise a maximum likelihood technique for estimating the parameters of such models from the data. The most strongly constrained parameter is the mass within 200-300 kpc, giving the confidence limits quoted above. The eccentricity, e, of satellite orbits is also strongly constrained, 0.50 less than e less than 0.88 at 90% confidence, implying a near-isotropic distribution of satellite velocities. The cosmic density parameter in the vicinity of our isolated halos exceeds 0.13 at 90% confidence, with preferred values exceeding 0.3.
A challenge common to many constituent data assimilation applications is the fact that one observes a much smaller fraction of the phase space that one wishes to estimate. For example, remotely sensed estimates of the column average concentrations are available, while one is faced with the problem of estimating 3D concentrations for initializing a prognostic model. This problem is exacerbated in the case of aerosols because the observable Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is not only a column integrated quantity, but it also sums over a large number of species (dust, sea-salt, carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols. An aerosol transport model when driven by high-resolution, state-of-the-art analysis of meteorological fields and realistic emissions can produce skillful forecasts even when no aerosol data is assimilated. The main task of aerosol data assimilation is to address the bias arising from inaccurate emissions, and Lagrangian misplacement of plumes induced by errors in the driving meteorological fields. As long as one decouples the meteorological and aerosol assimilation as we do here, the classic baroclinic growth of error is no longer the main order of business. We will describe an aerosol data assimilation scheme in which the analysis update step is conducted in observation space, using an adaptive maximum-likelihood scheme for estimating background errors in AOD space. This scheme includes e explicit sequential bias estimation as in Dee and da Silva. Unlikely existing aerosol data assimilation schemes we do not obtain analysis increments of the 3D concentrations by scaling the background profiles. Instead we explore the Lagrangian characteristics of the problem for generating local displacement ensembles. These high-resolution state-dependent ensembles are then used to parameterize the background errors and generate 3D aerosol increments. The algorithm has computational complexity running at a resolution of 1/4 degree, globally. We will present the result of assimilating AOD retrievals from MODIS (on both Aqua and TERRA satellites) from AERONET for validation. The impact on the GEOS-5 Aerosol Forecasting will be fully documented.
The next generation of dark-energy imaging surveys — so called “Stage-IV” surveys, such as that of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) — will cross a threshold in the number density of detected sources on the sky that requires qualitatively different image analysis and measurement techniques compared to the current generation of Stage-III surveys. In Stage-IV surveys, a significant amount of the cosmologically useful information is due to sources whose images overlap with those of other sources on the sky. Here, we focus on the weak gravitational lensing probe, for which we expect the largest impact since the cosmic shear signal is primarily encoded in the estimated shapes of observed galaxies and thus directly impacted by overlaps. We introduce a framework based on the Fisher formalism to analyze the effect of the overlapping sources (“blending”) on the estimation of cosmic shear. This method gives concrete predictions for the minimum loss of information due to noise and blending for any choice of “deblending” scheme and shape-measurement algorithm. Our studies account for undetected sources but do not address their full effects and biases they may introduce. We use simulated images and predict this impact of blending for three surveys: the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Hyper-Suprime Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP), and the Rubin LSST. Our methodology successfully estimates the statistical sensitivity to weak lensing for DES and HSC early results. For LSST, we present the expected loss in statistical sensitivity for the ten-year survey due to blending. We find that for approximately 62% of galaxies that are likely to be detected in full-depth LSST images, at least 1% of the flux in their pixels is from overlapping sources. We also find that the statistical correlations between measures of overlapping galaxies and, to a much lesser extent (0.2%) the higher shot noise level due to their presence, decrease the effective number density of galaxies, N eff , by ~ 18%. We calculate an upper limit on N eff of 39.4 galaxies per arcmin 2 in r band. We study the impact of stars on as a function of stellar density and illustrate the diminishing returns of extending the survey into lower Galactic latitudes. We extend the simulation-based Fisher formalism to predict the expected increase in pixel-noise bias due to blending for maximum-likelihood (ML) shape estimators. We find that noise bias depends sensitively on the particular shape estimator and measure of ensemble-average shape that is used, and properties of the galaxy that include redshift-dependent quantities such as size and luminosity. The source code for these studies is available online.[The documented software developed for the catalog-level studies are available in the open-source LSST DESC github repository https://github.com/LSSTDESC/WeakLensingDeblending. The software for analyzing one or two galaxies with user-defined parameters is in the open-source github repository https://github.com/ismael-mendoza/ShapeMeasurementFisherFormalism.]
A maximum-likelihood output-error parameter estimation technique has been used to obtain stability and control derivatives for the NASA F-18B Systems Research Aircraft. This work has been performed to support flight testing of the active aeroelastic wing (AAW) F-18A project. The goal of this research is to obtain baseline F-18 stability and control derivatives that will form the foundation of the aerodynamic model for the AAW aircraft configuration. Flight data have been obtained at Mach numbers between 0.85 and 1.30 and at dynamic pressures ranging between 600 and 1500 lbf/sq ft. At each test condition, longitudinal and lateral-directional doublets have been performed using an automated onboard excitation system. The doublet maneuver consists of a series of single-surface inputs so that individual control-surface motions cannot be correlated with other control-surface motions. Flight test results have shown that several stability and control derivatives are significantly different than prescribed by the F-18B aerodynamic model. This report defines the parameter estimation technique used, presents stability and control derivative results, compares the results with predictions based on the current F-18B aerodynamic model, and shows improvements to the nonlinear simulation using updated derivatives from this research.