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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Emulating Simulations of Cosmic Dawn for 21 cm Power Spectrum Constraints on Cosmology, Reionization, and X-Ray Heating

Current and upcoming radio interferometric experiments are aiming to make a statistical characterization of the high-redshift 21 cm fluctuation signal spanning the hydrogen reionization and X-ray heating epochs of the universe. However, connecting 21 cm statistics to the underlying physical parameters is complicated by the theoretical challenge of modeling the relevant physics at computational speeds quick enough to enable exploration of the high-dimensional and weakly constrained parameter space. In this work, we use machine learning algorithms to build a fast emulator that can accurately mimic an expensive simulation of the 21 cm signal across a wide parameter space. We embed our emulator within a Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework in order to perform Bayesian parameter constraints over a large number of model parameters, including those that govern the Epoch of Reionization, the Epoch of X-ray Heating, and cosmology. As a worked example, we use our emulator to present an updated parameter constraint forecast for the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array experiment, showing that its characterization of a fiducial 21 cm power spectrum will considerably narrow the allowed parameter space of reionization and heating parameters, and could help strengthen Planck's constraints on σ{sub 8}. We provide both our generalized emulator code and its implementation specifically for 21 cm parameter constraints as publicly available software.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficient high-fidelity TRISO statistical failure analysis using Bison: Applications to AGR-2 irradiation testing

The ability of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel to contain fission products is largely dictated by the quality of the manufacturing process, since most of the fission product release is expected to occur due to coating layer failure in a small number of particles containing defects. The Bison fuel performance code has capabilities to predict failure in individual particles, accounting for the presence of defects, and to apply statistical analysis methods to compute the probability of failure in a set of fuel particles. Bison has recently undergone significant development both to improve its physical representations of fuel particle behavior and to improve the efficiency of its statistical failure calculations. Physical model improvements include new capabilities to account for the pressure generated by fission gases on inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) crack surfaces and to use local material coordinate orientation to accurately incorporate the anisotropy in the material properties in aspherical particles. To improve statistical modeling efficiency, a direct integration approach which involves directly integrating the failure probability function associated with statistically varying parameters has been developed. The direct integration approach is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo (MC) schemes commonly employed, and allows Bison to directly run high-dimensional fuel performance models, which improves the accuracy of failure probability calculations. Finally, a set of benchmark problems is considered here to compare the MC and direct integration approaches, and a statistical failure analysis of compacts in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-2 experiments is performed using the direct integration approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Substructure in the stellar halo near the Sun: I. Data-driven clustering in integrals-of-motion space

Context. Merger debris is expected to populate the stellar haloes of galaxies. In the case of the Milky Way, this debris should be apparent as clumps in a space defined by the orbital integrals of motion of the stars. Aims. Our aim is to develop a data-driven and statistics-based method for finding these clumps in integrals-of-motion space for nearby halo stars and to evaluate their significance robustly. Methods. We used data from Gaia EDR3, extended with radial velocities from ground-based spectroscopic surveys, to construct a sample of halo stars within 2.5 kpc from the Sun. We applied a hierarchical clustering method that makes exhaustive use of the single linkage algorithm in three-dimensional space defined by the commonly used integrals of motion energy E, together with two components of the angular momentum, L z and L ⊥ . To evaluate the statistical significance of the clusters, we compared the density within an ellipsoidal region centred on the cluster to that of random sets with similar global dynamical properties. By selecting the signal at the location of their maximum statistical significance in the hierarchical tree, we extracted a set of significant unique clusters. By describing these clusters with ellipsoids, we estimated the proximity of a star to the cluster centre using the Mahalanobis distance. Additionally, we applied the HDBSCAN clustering algorithm in velocity space to each cluster to extract subgroups representing debris with different orbital phases. Results. Our procedure identifies 67 highly significant clusters (> 3σ), containing 12% of the sources in our halo set, and 232 subgroups or individual streams in velocity space. In total, 13.8% of the stars in our data set can be confidently associated with a significant cluster based on their Mahalanobis distance. Inspection of the hierarchical tree describing our data set reveals a complex web of relations between the significant clusters, suggesting that they can be tentatively grouped into at least six main large structures, many of which can be associated with previously identified halo substructures, and a number of independent substructures. This preliminary conclusion is further explored in a companion paper, in which we also characterise the substructures in terms of their stellar populations. Conclusions. Our method allows us to systematically detect kinematic substructures in the Galactic stellar halo with a data-driven and interpretable algorithm. The list of the clusters and the associated star catalogue are provided in two tables available at the CDS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-D-BRB-01: A Comparison of Learning Methods for Knowledge Based Dose Prediction for Coplanar and Non-Coplanar Liver Radiotherapy

Purpose: The predictive power of knowledge based planning (KBP) has considerable potential in the development of automated treatment planning. Here, we examine the predictive capabilities and accuracy of previously reported KBP methods, as well as an artificial neural networks (ANN) method. Furthermore, we compare the predictive accuracy of these methods on coplanar volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) and non-coplanar 4π radiotherapy. Methods: 30 liver SBRT patients previously treated using coplanar VMAT were selected for this study. The patients were re-planned using 4π radiotherapy, which involves 20 optimally selected non-coplanar IMRT fields. ANNs were used to incorporate enhanced geometric information including liver and PTV size, prescription dose, patient girth, and proximity to beams. The performance of ANN was compared to three methods from statistical voxel dose learning (SVDL), wherein the doses of voxels sharing the same distance to the PTV are approximated by either taking the median of the distribution, non-parametric fitting, or skew-normal fitting. These three methods were shown to be capable of predicting DVH, but only median approximation can predict 3D dose. Prediction methods were tested using leave-one-out cross-validation tests and evaluated using residual sum of squares (RSS) for DVH and 3D dose predictions. Results: DVH prediction using non-parametric fitting had the lowest average RSS with 0.1176(4π) and 0.1633(VMAT), compared to 0.4879(4π) and 1.8744(VMAT) RSS for ANN. 3D dose prediction with median approximation had lower RSS with 12.02(4π) and 29.22(VMAT), compared to 27.95(4π) and 130.9(VMAT) for ANN. Conclusion: Paradoxically, although the ANNs included geometric features in addition to the distances to the PTV, it did not perform better in predicting DVH or 3D dose compared to simpler, faster methods based on the distances alone. The study further confirms that the prediction of 4π non-coplanar plans were more accurate than VMAT. NIH R43CA183390 and R01CA188300.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Quantitative characterization of genetic parts and circuits for plant synthetic biology

Plant synthetic biology promises immense technological benefits and hopes of developing a sustainable bio-based economy. Synthetic biology enables predictive design of synthetic genetic networks based on quantitatively characterized standardized genetic parts. This presents a significant practical barrier since stable transformation of plants is very time consuming, especially when testing large numbers of components. An attractive alternative is the use of transient protoplast assays. We describe a method for rapid quantitative characterization of genetic components in Arabidopsis thaliana, using plant protoplasts and dual luciferase outputs. Here we found that transient protoplast assays are marked by significant experimental variability. We developed a mathematical model to describe, and statistical normalization methods to account for this variability, allowing us to extract quantitative parameters. Over 120 synthetic genetic components were built and characterized using our Arabidopsis protoplasts quantitative testing platform. We validate our method by comparing transient expression of genetic components with stably transformed plants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advances in Kriging-Based Autonomous X-Ray Scattering Experiments

Autonomous experimentation is an emerging paradigm for scientific discovery, wherein measurement instruments are augmented with decision-making algorithms, allowing them to autonomously explore parameter spaces of interest. We have recently demonstrated a generalized approach to autonomous experimental control, based on generating a surrogate model to interpolate experimental data, and a corresponding uncertainty model, which are computed using a Gaussian process regression known as ordinary Kriging (OK). We demonstrated the successful application of this method to exploring materials science problems using x-ray scattering measurements at a synchrotron beamline. Here, we report several improvements to this methodology that overcome limitations of traditional Kriging methods. The variogram underlying OK is global and thus insensitive to local data variation. We augment the Kriging variance with model-based measures, for instance providing local sensitivity by including the gradient of the surrogate model. As with most statistical regression methods, OK minimizes the number of measurements required to achieve a particular model quality. However, in practice this may not be the most stringent experimental constraint; e.g. the goal may instead be to minimize experiment duration or material usage. We define an adaptive cost function, allowing the autonomous method to balance information gain against measured experimental cost. We provide synthetic and experimental demonstrations, validating that this improved algorithm yields more efficient autonomous data collection.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Upper subcritical calculations based on correlated data - 14427

The American National Standards Institute and American Nuclear Society standard for Validation of Neutron Transport Methods for Nuclear Criticality Safety Calculations defines the upper subcritical limit (USL) as 'a limit on the calculated k-effective value established to ensure that conditions calculated to be subcritical will actually be subcritical'. Often, USL calculations are based on statistical techniques that infer information about a nuclear system of interest from a set of known/well-characterized similar systems. The work in this paper is part of an active area of research to investigate the way traditional trending analysis is used in the nuclear industry, and in particular, the research is assessing the impact of the underlying assumption that the experimental data being analyzed for USL calculations are statistically independent. In contrast, the multiple experiments typically used for USL calculations can be correlated because they are often performed at the same facilities using the same materials and measurement techniques. This paper addresses this issue by providing a set of statistical inference methods to calculate the bias and bias uncertainty based on the underlying assumption that the experimental data are correlated. Methods to quantify these correlations are the subject of a companion paper and will not be discussed here. The newly proposed USL methodology is based on the assumption that the integral experiments selected for use in the establishment of the USL are sufficiently applicable and that experimental correlations are known. Under the assumption of uncorrelated data, the new methods collapse directly to familiar USL equations currently used. We will demonstrate our proposed methods on real data and compare them to calculations of currently used methods such as USLSTATS and NUREG/CR-6698. Lastly, we will also demonstrate the effect experiment correlations can have on USL calculations. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Stochastic level-set method for shape optimisation

We present a new method for stochastic shape optimisation of engineering structures. The method generalises an existing deterministic scheme, in which the structure is represented and evolved by a level-set method coupled with mathematical programming. The stochastic element of the algorithm is built on the methods of statistical mechanics and is designed so that the system explores a Boltzmann–Gibbs distribution of structures. In non-convex optimisation problems, the deterministic algorithm can get trapped in local optima: the stochastic generalisation enables sampling of multiple local optima, which aids the search for the globally-optimal structure. The method is demonstrated for several simple geometrical problems, and a proof-of-principle calculation is shown for a simple engineering structure.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2017

Precision and Accuracy in PDV and VISAR

This is a technical report discussing our current level of understanding of a wide and varying distribution of uncertainties in velocity results from Photonic Doppler Velocimetry in its application to gas gun experiments. Using propagation of errors methods with statistical averaging of photon number fluctuation in the detected photocurrent and subsequent addition of electronic recording noise, we learn that the velocity uncertainty in VISAR can be written in closed form. For PDV, the non-linear frequency transform and peak fitting methods employed make propagation of errors estimates notoriously more difficult to write down in closed form expect in the limit of constant velocity and low time resolution (large analysis-window width). An alternative method of error propagation in PDV is to use Monte Carlo methods with a simulation of the time domain signal based on results from the spectral domain. A key problem for Monte Carlo estimation for an experiment is a correct estimate of that portion of the time-domain noise associated with the peak-fitting region-of-interesting in the spectral domain. Using short-time Fourier transformation spectral analysis and working with the phase dependent real and imaginary parts allows removal of amplitude-noise cross terms that invariably show up when working with correlation-based methods or FFT power spectra. Estimation of the noise associated with a given spectral region of interest is then possible. At this level of progress, we learn that Monte Carlo trials with random recording noise and initial (uncontrolled) phase yields velocity uncertainties that are not as large as those observed. In a search for additional noise sources, a speckleinterference modulation contribution with off axis rays was investigated, and was found to add a velocity variation beyond that from the recording noise (due to random interference between off axis rays), but in our experiments the speckle modulation precision was not as important as the recording noise precision. But from these investigations we do appreciate that the velocity-uncertainty itself has a wide distribution of values that varies with signal-amplitude modulation (is not a single value). To provide a rough rule of thumb for the velocity uncertainty, we computed the average of the relative standard deviation distributions from 60 recorded traces (with distributions of uncertainties roughly between 0.1 % to 1 % in each trace) and found a mean of the distribution of uncertainties for our experiments is not better than 0.4 % at an analysis window width of 5 ns (although for brief intervals it can be as good as 0.1 %). Further imagination and testing may be needed to reveal other possible hydrodynamics-related sources of velocity error in PDV.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2015

A MAGNIFIED GLANCE INTO THE DARK SECTOR: PROBING COSMOLOGICAL MODELS WITH STRONG LENSING IN A1689

In this paper we constrain four alternative models to the late cosmic acceleration in the universe: Chevallier–Polarski–Linder (CPL), interacting dark energy (IDE), Ricci holographic dark energy (HDE), and modified polytropic Cardassian (MPC). Strong lensing (SL) images of background galaxies produced by the galaxy cluster Abell 1689 are used to test these models. To perform this analysis we modify the LENSTOOL lens modeling code. The value added by this probe is compared with other complementary probes: Type Ia supernovae (SN Ia), baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO), and cosmic microwave background (CMB). We found that the CPL constraints obtained for the SL data are consistent with those estimated using the other probes. The IDE constraints are consistent with the complementary bounds only if large errors in the SL measurements are considered. The Ricci HDE and MPC constraints are weak, but they are similar to the BAO, SN Ia, and CMB estimations. We also compute the figure of merit as a tool to quantify the goodness of fit of the data. Our results suggest that the SL method provides statistically significant constraints on the CPL parameters but is weak for those of the other models. Finally, we show that the use of the SL measurements in galaxy clusters is a promising and powerful technique to constrain cosmological models. The advantage of this method is that cosmological parameters are estimated by modeling the SL features for each underlying cosmology. These estimations could be further improved by SL constraints coming from other galaxy clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

A comparison of Redlich-Kister polynomial and cubic spline representations of the chemical potential in phase field computations

Free energies play a central role in many descriptions of equilibrium and non-equilibrium properties of solids. Continuum partial differential equations (PDEs) of atomic transport, phase transformations and mechanics often rely on first and second derivatives of a free energy function. The stability, accuracy and robustness of numerical methods to solve these PDEs are sensitive to the particular functional representations of the free energy. In this communication we investigate the influence of different representations of thermodynamic data on phase field computations of diffusion and two-phase reactions in the solid state. First-principles statistical mechanics methods were used to generate realistic free energy data for HCP titanium with interstitially dissolved oxygen. While Redlich-Kister polynomials have formed the mainstay of thermodynamic descriptions of multi-component solids, they require high order terms to fit oscillations in chemical potentials around phase transitions. Here, we demonstrate that high fidelity fits to rapidly fluctuating free energy functions are obtained with spline functions. As a result, spline functions that are many degrees lower than Redlich-Kister polynomials provide equal or superior fits to chemical potential data and, when used in phase field computations, result in solution times approaching an order of magnitude speed up relative to the use of Redlich-Kister polynomials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thoughts on Analyzing Neutron Multiplicity Data

Bayesian methods offer many advantages for analyzing neutron multiplicity data. Ideally one would make nonparametric estimates of the the posterior distributions, the probabilities - given the data - for unknowns to take on particular values. Once one has the posterior, uncertainty quantification is very natural. We describe how different ways of formulating the statistical theory of fission chains are mathematically equivalent. When confronted with actual data and the burden of finite statistics, different methods of expressing the theory offer advantages for understanding the underlying source parameters from an information theory standpoint.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

α -decay energies of superheavy nuclei: Systematic trends

Background: New superheavy nuclei are often identified through their characteristic α -decay energies, which requires accurate calculations of Q α values. While many Q α predictions are available, little is known about their uncertainties, and this makes it difficult to carry out extrapolations to as-yet-unknown systems. Purpose: This work aims to analyze several models, compare their predictions to available experimental data, and study their performance for the unobserved α-decay chains of 296 120 and 298 120, which are of current experimental interest. Our quantified results will also serve as a benchmark for future, more sophisticated statistical studies. Methods: We use nuclear superfluid density functional theory (DFT) with several Skyrme energy density functionals (EDFs). To estimate systematic model uncertainties, we employ uniform model averaging. Results: We investigated the Q α values for even-even nuclei from Fm to Z = 120 . For well-deformed nuclei between Fm and Ds, we find excellent consistency between different model predictions, and a good agreement with experimental results. For transitional nuclei beyond Ds, intermodel differences grow, resulting in an appreciable systematic error. In particular, our models underestimate Q α for the heaviest nucleus 294 Og. Conclusions The robustness of DFT predictions for well-deformed superheavy nuclei supports the idea of using experimental Q α values, together with theoretical predictions, as reasonable ( Z, A ) indicators. Unfortunately, this identification method is not projected to work well in the region of deformed-to-spherical shape transition as one approaches N = 184 . The use of Q α values in the identification of new superheavy nuclei will benefit greatly from progress in developing both new spectroscopic-quality EDFs and more sophisticated statistical techniques of uncertainty quantification.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

A practical method to test the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in logit-based multinomial choice models of travel behavior

Most multinomial choice models (e.g., the multinomial logit model) adopted in practice assume an extreme-value Gumbel distribution for the random components (error terms) of utility functions. This distributional assumption offers a closed-form likelihood expression when the utility maximization principle is applied to model choice behaviors. As a result, model coefficients can be easily estimated using the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. However, maximum likelihood estimators are consistent and efficient only if distributional assumptions on the random error terms are valid. It is therefore critical to test the validity of underlying distributional assumptions on the error terms that form the basis of parameter estimation and policy evaluation. In this paper, a practical yet statistically rigorous method is proposed to test the validity of the distributional assumption on the random components of utility functions in both the multinomial logit (MNL) model and multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model. Based on a semi-nonparametric approach, a closed-form likelihood function that nests the MNL or MDCEV model being tested is derived. The proposed method allows traditional likelihood ratio tests to be used to test violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the proposed test yields acceptable Type-I and Type-II error probabilities at commonly available sample sizes. The test is then applied to three real-world discrete and discrete-continuous choice models. For all three models, the proposed test rejects the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in most utility functions, calling for the development of robust choice models that overcome adverse effects of violations of distributional assumptions on the error terms in random utility functions.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Enhanced legume root growth with pre-soaking in α-Fe 2 O 3 nanoparticle fertilizer

The rising demand for food and energy crops has triggered interest in the use of nanoparticles for agronomy. Specifically, iron oxide-based engineered nanoparticles are promising candidates for next-generation iron-deficiency fertilizers. We used iron oxide and hybrid Pt-decorated iron oxide nanoparticles, at low and high concentrations, and at varied pHs, to model seed pre-soaking solutions for investigation of their effect on embryonic root growth in legumes. This is an environmentally friendly approach, as it uses less fertilizer, therefore less nanoparticles in contact with the soil. Analysis from varied material characterization techniques combined with a statistical analysis method found that iron oxide nanoparticles could enhance root growth by 88–366% at low concentrations (5.54 × 10 -3 mg L -1 Fe). Hybrid Pt-decorated iron oxide nanoparticles and a higher concentration of iron oxide nanoparticles (27.7 mg L -1 Fe) showed reduced root growth. The combined materials characterization and statistical analysis used here can be applied to address many environmental factors to finely tune the development of vital nanofertilizers for high efficiency food production.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anomaly Detection and Approximate Similarity Searches of Transients in Real-time Data Streams

Abstract We present Lightcurve Anomaly Identification and Similarity Search ( LAISS ), an automated pipeline to detect anomalous astrophysical transients in real-time data streams. We deploy our anomaly detection model on the nightly Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) Alert Stream via the ANTARES broker, identifying a manageable ∼1–5 candidates per night for expert vetting and coordinating follow-up observations. Our method leverages statistical light-curve and contextual host galaxy features within a random forest classifier, tagging transients of rare classes ( spectroscopic anomalies), of uncommon host galaxy environments ( contextual anomalies), and of peculiar or interaction-powered phenomena ( behavioral anomalies). Moreover, we demonstrate the power of a low-latency (∼ms) approximate similarity search method to find transient analogs with similar light-curve evolution and host galaxy environments. We use analogs for data-driven discovery, characterization, (re)classification, and imputation in retrospective and real-time searches. To date, we have identified ∼50 previously known and previously missed rare transients from real-time and retrospective searches, including but not limited to superluminous supernovae (SLSNe), tidal disruption events, SNe IIn, SNe IIb, SNe I-CSM, SNe Ia-91bg-like, SNe Ib, SNe Ic, SNe Ic-BL, and M31 novae. Lastly, we report the discovery of 325 total transients, all observed between 2018 and 2021 and absent from public catalogs (∼1% of all ZTF Astronomical Transient reports to the Transient Name Server through 2021). These methods enable a systematic approach to finding the “needle in the haystack” in large-volume data streams. Because of its integration with the ANTARES broker, LAISS is built to detect exciting transients in Rubin data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗