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NASA NTRS2011

Validation of Space Weather Models at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multiagency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather modes. CCMC goal is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. The presentation will demonstrate the recent progress in CCMC metrics and validation activities.

Kuznetsova, M. M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modelling the Sensitivity of Yukon River Biogeochemical Dynamics to Environmental and Chemical Drivers: Implications for Dissolved Organic Carbon

Riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a critical biogeochemical component that transmits information from Arctic soils to the Arctic Ocean, significantly influencing carbon dynamics in this unique ecosystem. As DOC travels downstream, it undergoes transformations that alter its composition and fate. The Yukon River serves as an effective testbed for modelling these dynamics, offering sufficient scale to capture key biogeochemical processes while having a simpler hydrology than other major Arctic rivers, as well as long-term DOC observational data for model validation. To investigate DOC transformations during transit in the Yukon River, we adapted our Arctic Riverine Organic Macromolecular Model by applying regional-specific parameterisations. Our model simulates the transport and transformation of 15 organic macromolecules, including CDOM (coloured dissolved organic matter), proteins, polysaccharides, lipids, lignin phenols, and humic substances. Initial DOC concentrations were derived from observed soil organic carbon stocks in the surrounding watershed, while chemical transformations and hydrological dynamics were modelled along the river's course. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were conducted using a Monte Carlo approach under two experimental setups. Results revealed that variability in DOC and CDOM concentrations at the river mouth were predominantly driven by initial DOC concentration (~70% of variability explained) and dilution at confluence points (~10%). The refractory fraction of DOC explained 21%–88% of the variability in 14 macromolecular concentrations and ranked in the top five sensitive parameters for all outputs when a uniform parameter distribution was assumed. However, when a more likely variability was applied to this parameter, its influence on DOC and CDOM decreased. Given that refractory DOC accounts for ~80% of total DOC in Arctic Rivers, this suggests that most DOC resists degradation and retains its chemical composition during transport to the coastal environment. River velocity, which determines residence time, explained 8%–47% of the variability in protein, polysaccharide, lipid, pigments, and lignin phenols at the river mouth. In contrast, chemical turnover times contributed only 1%–5% to output variability. Our findings underscore the need for improved land-specific headwater observations, including seasonal soil moisture and lateral transport dynamics that control the initial tributary-specific DOC inputs. With accelerated permafrost thaw and increasing river discharge, extending our model to other Arctic River systems and seasons will enhance understanding of Arctic riverine carbon fluxes and their contributions to the Arctic Ocean.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Technical, economic, and load-following capabilities assessment of grid-connected geothermal and geothermal-solar hybrid systems

The technical and economic performance as well as the load-following capabilities of grid-connected geothermal hybrid systems were assessed in this work. The analyzed geothermal hybrid configuration is composed of a binary geothermal plant integrated with a concentrating solar-thermal system and underground thermal energy storage (UTES) through a primary heat exchanger. Physics-based models for the hybrid system for plant generation capacities of 1, 25, and 50 MW were developed from validated models for each subsystem. Also, an economic model was developed that accounts for different hybrid system capabilities, solar field sizes, and thermal storage duration. The advantage of the geothermal hybrid system was assessed by comparing the performance with the baseline benchmark geothermal plant with a similar configuration and generation capacity. It was found that hybridizing geothermal plants with concentrating solar and thermal energy storage not only improves the thermal efficiency by up to 8 percentage points when additional heat from the solar-UTES loop rises the evaporator temperatures from 70 to 125 °C, but also enhances the load-following capability for the geothermal plant, which can meet a typical residential load profile with a power rate of change 0.25 kW/s with an absolute error under 13 kW for a 1 MW plant. Other benefits of hybridization include resource preservation and a potential LCOE reduction of up to 56% for a 50 MW geothermal hybrid plant having a 50% solar share, a 1.4 solar multiple, and 24-h storage capacity. The results presented in this work demonstrate that hybridizing geothermal systems transforms them into a flexible and cost-effective solution for addressing the dynamic requirements of modern electric grids.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Effects of Atmosphere and Ocean Horizontal Model Resolution on Tropical Cyclone and Upper-Ocean Response Forecasts in Four Major Hurricanes

A coupled atmosphere–ocean model is necessary for tropical cyclone (TC) prediction to accurately characterize ocean feedback on atmospheric processes within the TC environment. Here, the ECMWF coupled global model is run at horizontal resolutions from 9 to 1.4 km in the atmosphere, as well as 25 and 8 km in the ocean, to identify how resolution impacts forecast accuracy of four observed major TCs in the Atlantic: Irma, Florence, Teddy, and Ida. Most of the resolutions used here are unprecedented for global models. GOES-16 and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images and best track data are used for atmospheric validation. Salinity and temperature observations from Air-Launched Autonomous Micro-Observer (ALAMO) floats are used to validate modeled upper-ocean response, including mixed layer deepening, sea surface cooling, and near-inertial waves in the wakes of TCs. Increasing atmospheric resolution leads to more realistic TC structure and stronger winds, significantly improving TC intensity forecasts and modestly improving track errors. Ocean resolution impacts the upper-ocean response but does not influence atmospheric forecasts for the fast-moving TCs considered here. Stronger mixing, sea surface cooling, and near-inertial oscillations are found for both higher atmosphere and ocean resolutions, provided the initial upper-ocean state is the same for the two ocean resolutions. Whether this agrees better with the ALAMO observations also depends on the realism of the initial upper-ocean state in the model, emphasizing the importance of ocean initialization for the accurate upper-ocean response. Overall, the model at all resolutions correctly predicts stronger mixing, surface cooling, and near-inertial oscillation amplitudes to the right of a TC center, as observed by ALAMO floats.

Atmosphere-ocean interaction↗

NASA NTRS2018

High Accuracy Coronagraph Flight Model For WFIRST–CGI Raw Contrast Sensitivity Analysis

A high-accuracy high-fidelity flight wavefront control (WFC) model is developed for detailed raw contrast sensitivity analysis of WFIRST-CGI. Built upon features of recently testbed validated model, it is further refined to combine a full Fresnel propagation diffraction model for high accuracy contrast truth evaluation, and an economical compact model for WFC purposes. Extensive individual raw contrast error sensitivities are evaluated systematically, both as known imperfections and as unknown calibration errors, for both spectroscopy mode and wide field-of-view mode with shaped pupil coronagraph. More than 90 distinct error items were identified, including system aberrations, optical misalignment, component manufacturing error, telescope interface related errors, etc. The result forms the basis for raw contrast error budget flow down to a sub-system level, where detailed specifications needed to aid in component design and manufacturing, mechanical alignment and instrument integration, and verification and validation operations. Evaluations are mostly automated, making it relatively easy for repeat runs of revised design or at new desired error quantity. Top error sensitivities and contrast floor contributors are discussed and several observations are noted.

Poberezhskiy, Ilya↗

NASA NTRS1984

NTF Modeling Program

The National Transonic Facility presents a design for and assessment of a transonic wind tunnel. Among the topics covered in viewgraph format are: aerodynamic validation models, scale models of wind tunnel components, performance evaluations of various wind tunnel parameters, and drive systems.

McKinney, L. Wayne↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Lake Biogeochemistry Model for Global Methane Emissions: Model Development, Site‐Level Validation, and Global Applicability

Abstract Lakes are important sentinels of climate change and may contribute over 30% of natural methane (CH 4 ) emissions; however, no earth system model (ESM) has represented lake CH 4 dynamics. To fill this gap, we refined a process‐based lake biogeochemical model to simulate global lake CH 4 emissions, including representation of lake bathymetry, oxic methane production (OMP), the effect of water level on ebullition, new non‐linear CH 4 oxidation kinetics, and the coupling of sediment carbon pools with in‐lake primary production and terrigenous carbon loadings. We compiled a lake CH 4 data set for model validation. The model shows promising performance in capturing the seasonal and inter‐annual variabilities of CH 4 emissions at 10 representative lakes for different lake types and the variations in mean annual CH 4 emissions among 106 lakes across the globe. The model reproduces the variations of the observed surface CH 4 diffusion and ebullition along the gradients of lake latitude, depth, and surface area. The results suggest that OMP could play an important role in surface CH 4 diffusion, and its relative importance is higher in less productive and/or deeper lakes. The model performance is improved for capturing CH 4 outgassing events in non‐floodplain lakes and the seasonal variability of CH 4 ebullition in floodplain lakes by representing the effect of water level on ebullition. The model can be integrated into ESMs to constrain global lake CH 4 emissions and climate‐CH 4 feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A dynamic 2D Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) model for enhanced computational efficiency

Progressing toward a future increasingly reliant on renewable energy sources, the development of effective, durable energy storage solutions becomes essential to balance supply and demand fluctuations. Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) is a long-duration thermal energy storage technology that captures excess heat generated from renewable energy sources and stores it underground for later use, enabling the efficient utilization of sustainable energy. This approach is particularly valuable in district energy networks when integrated with Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHP) to provide stable heating and cooling. However, traditional three-dimensional (3D) numerical models of BTES systems demand extensive computational resources, limiting their practicality for real-time and large-scale applications. This study introduces a novel two-dimensional (2D) modeling approach that reduces computational costs while maintaining high accuracy. By employing a radial ring-based discretization method, the model simulates heat injection, retention, and retrieval dynamics over seasonal cycles. A new thermal-mass weighted-average temperature parameter is introduced to evaluate the performance of BTES systems. Model validation against FEFLOW simulations demonstrates a 17-fold improvement in computational speed compared to traditional Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models while achieving a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2 % during charging and 4 % during discharging. Additionally, a trade-off analysis between computational efficiency and accuracy is conducted, ensuring the model's applicability for real-world scenarios. The findings of this research contribute to the development of computationally efficient BTES models, facilitating better optimization, control, and integration into renewable energy systems. This work provides a foundation for further studies in techno-economic analysis, multi-year performance evaluation, and real-time operational strategies for BTES applications, supporting a more sustainable energy future.

2D modeling↗

NASA NTRS1998

Simulation of Long Lived Tracers Using an Improved Empirically-Based Two-Dimensional Model Transport Algorithm

We have developed a new empirically-based transport algorithm for use in our GSFC two-dimensional transport and chemistry assessment model. The new algorithm contains planetary wave statistics, and parameterizations to account for the effects due to gravity waves and equatorial Kelvin waves. We will present an overview of the new algorithm, and show various model-data comparisons of long-lived tracers as part of the model validation. We will also show how the new algorithm gives substantially better agreement with observations compared to our previous model transport. The new model captures much of the qualitative structure and seasonal variability observed methane, water vapor, and total ozone. These include: isolation of the tropics and winter polar vortex, the well mixed surf-zone region of the winter sub-tropics and mid-latitudes, and the propagation of seasonal signals in the tropical lower stratosphere. Model simulations of carbon-14 and strontium-90 compare fairly well with observations in reproducing the peak in mixing ratio at 20-25 km, and the decrease with altitude in mixing ratio above 25 km. We also ran time dependent simulations of SF6 from which the model mean age of air values were derived. The oldest air (5.5 to 6 years) occurred in the high latitude upper stratosphere during fall and early winter of both hemispheres, and in the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere during late winter and early spring. The latitudinal gradient of the mean ages also compare well with ER-2 aircraft observations in the lower stratosphere.

Fleming, Eric L.↗

NASA NTRS2002

IMAGE EUV and RPI Derived Distributions of Plasmaspheric Plasma and Plasmaspheric Modeling

The global modeling of plasmaspheric plasma has remained fairly rudimentary over the last 30-years, owing to our limited ability to validate model results experimentally. The realization that voids and filamentary structures covering a range of scales sizes are formed in the distribution of thermal plasma has only been possible with global imaging and enables entirely new advances in modeling the near Earth space environment. Advances in modeling in the context of these new observations will be presented and discussed.

Gallagher, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Advanced UVOIR Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) for Very Large Space Telescopes

ASTRO2010 Decadal Survey stated that an advanced large-aperture ultraviolet, optical, near-infrared (UVOIR) telescope is required to enable the next generation of compelling astrophysics and exoplanet science; and, that present technology is not mature enough to affordably build and launch any potential UVOIR mission concept. AMTD is the start of a multiyear effort to develop, demonstrate and mature critical technologies to TRL-6 by 2018 so that a viable flight mission can be proposed to the 2020 Decadal Review. AMTD builds on the state of art (SOA) defined by over 30 years of monolithic & segmented ground & space-telescope mirror technology to mature six key technologies: (1) Large-Aperture, Low Areal Density, High Stiffness Mirror Substrates: Both (4 to 8 m) monolithic and (8 to 16 m) segmented primary mirrors require larger, thicker, and stiffer substrates. (2) Support System: Large-aperture mirrors require large support systems to ensure that they survive launch and deploy on orbit in a stress-free and undistorted shape. (3) Mid/High Spatial Frequency Figure Error: Very smooth mirror is critical for producing high-quality point spread function (PSF) for high contrast imaging. (4) Segment Edges: The quality of segment edges impacts PSF for high-contrast imaging applications, contributes to stray light noise, and affects total collecting aperture. (5) Segment to Segment Gap Phasing: Segment phasing is critical for producing high-quality temporally-stable PSF. (6) Integrated Model Validation: On-orbit performance is driven by mechanical & thermal stability. Compliance cannot be 100% tested, but relies on modeling. AMTD is pursuing multiple design paths to provide the science community with options to enable either large aperture monolithic or segmented mirrors with clear engineering metrics traceable to science requirements.

Postman, Marc↗

NASA NTRS2013

Cold-end Subsystem Testing for the Fission Power System Technology Demonstration Unit

The Fission Power System (FPS) Technology Demonstration Unit (TDU) consists of a pumped sodium-potassium (NaK) loop that provides heat to a Stirling Power Conversion Unit (PCU), which converts some of that heat into electricity and rejects the waste heat to a pumped water loop. Each of the TDU subsystems is being tested independently prior to full system testing at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The pumped NaK loop is being tested at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center; the Stirling PCU and electrical controller are being tested by Sunpower Inc.; and the pumped water loop is being tested at Glenn. This paper describes cold-end subsystem setup and testing at Glenn. The TDU cold end has been assembled in Vacuum Facility 6 (VF 6) at Glenn, the same chamber that will be used for TDU testing. Cold-end testing in VF 6 will demonstrate functionality; validated cold-end fill, drain, and emergency backup systems; and generated pump performance and system pressure drop data used to validate models. In addition, a low-cost proof-of concept radiator has been built and tested at Glenn, validating the design and demonstrating the feasibility of using low-cost metal radiators as an alternative to high-cost composite radiators in an end-to-end TDU test.

Briggs, Maxwell↗

NASA NTRS2014

Overview and Summary of Advanced UVOIR Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) Project

ASTRO2010 Decadal Survey stated that an advanced large-aperture ultraviolet, optical, near-infrared (UVOIR) telescope is required to enable the next generation of compelling astrophysics and exoplanet science; and, that present technology is not mature enough to affordably build and launch any potential UVOIR mission concept. AMTD is a multiyear effort to develop, demonstrate and mature critical technologies to TRL-6 by 2018 so that a viable flight mission can be proposed to the 2020 Decadal Review. AMTD builds on the state of art (SOA) defined by over 30 years of monolithic & segmented ground & space-telescope mirror technology to mature six key technologies: center dotLarge-Aperture, Low Areal Density, High Stiffness Mirror Substrates: Both (4 to 8 m) monolithic and (8 to 16 m) segmented telescopes require larger and stiffer mirrors. center dotSupport System: Large-aperture mirrors require large support systems to ensure that they survive launch, deploy on orbit, and maintain a stable, undistorted shape. center dotMid/High Spatial Frequency Figure Error: Very smooth mirror is critical for producing high-quality point spread function (PSF) for high contrast imaging. center dotSegment Edges: The quality of segment edges impacts PSF for high-contrast imaging applications, contributes to stray light noise, and affects total collecting aperture. center dotSegment to Segment Gap Phasing: Segment phasing is critical for producing high-quality temporally-stable PSF. center dotIntegrated Model Validation: On-orbit performance is driven by mechanical & thermal stability. Compliance cannot be 100% tested, but relies on modeling. Because we cannot predict the future, AMTD is pursuing multiple design paths to provide the science community with options to enable either large aperture monolithic or segmented mirrors with clear engineering metrics traceable to science requirements

Stahl, H. Philip↗

NASA NTRS2013

Cold-End Subsystem Testing for the Fission Power System Technology Demonstration Unit

The Fission Power System (FPS) Technology Demonstration Unit (TDU) consists of a pumped sodiumpotassium (NaK) loop that provides heat to a Stirling Power Conversion Unit (PCU), which converts some of that heat into electricity and rejects the waste heat to a pumped water loop. Each of the TDU subsystems is being tested independently prior to full system testing at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The pumped NaK loop is being tested at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center; the Stirling PCU and electrical controller are being tested by Sunpower Inc.; and the pumped water loop is being tested at Glenn. This paper describes cold-end subsystem setup and testing at Glenn. The TDU cold end has been assembled in Vacuum Facility 6 (VF 6) at Glenn, the same chamber that will be used for TDU testing. Cold-end testing in VF 6 will demonstrate functionality; validated coldend fill, drain, and emergency backup systems; and generated pump performance and system pressure drop data used to validate models. In addition, a low-cost proof-of concept radiator has been built and tested at Glenn, validating the design and demonstrating the feasibility of using low-cost metal radiators as an alternative to highcost composite radiators in an end-to-end TDU test.

Briggs, Mazwell↗

NASA NTRS2014

Analytical Model for Steady Flow through a Finite Channel with One Porous Wall with Arbitrary Variable Suction or Injection

This paper presents an exact solution of two-dimensional laminar flow through a finite length channel with one porous wall. It improves upon previous solutions by (1) satisfying the no-slip boundary condition at the channel dead end, (2) adding a turbulent term to the porous wall boundary condition, (3) allowing for arbitrary variable suction or injection across the porous wall, and (4) model validation against new cryogenic liquid hydrogen and oxygen experimental data. Of particular interest in the current work is the modeling of cryogenic propellant flow through a porous liquid acquisition device (LAD) screen and channel inside a propellant tank. First, a detailed review of the literature is presented for previously attempted solutions to channel flow with one porous wall. Next, the governing equations, boundary conditions, and model assumptions are used to derive the analytical flow solution and present general model results for pressure and velocity fields within the channel. Then, the model solution is compared with horizontal LAD channel flow data in liquid oxygen as well as vertical LAD channel flow data in an inverted outflow configuration in liquid hydrogen. Model results are used to update the static cryogenic bubble point pressure model with a dynamic bubble point term which factors in enhanced convection and cooling at the screen during propellant outflow. Convective heat transfer at the LAD screen during outflow is also quantified by comparing model and data. The new analytical flow solution with the dynamic bubble point model is shown to compare well with available cryogenic experimental data

Navier Stokes Equations↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Open Science Practices at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

Open Science is defined as “the principle and practice of making research products and processes available to all, while respecting diverse cultures, maintaining security and privacy, and fostering collaborations, reproducibility, and equity” by Federal Agencies. The CCMC has been practicing open science based on FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable) principle by providing access to the state-of -the art space science and space weather models to users around the world through various simulation services such as Runs-on-Request, Instant Runs, Real time runs on iSWA system. The CCMC also provides a wide range of tools and framework to help users easily utilize modeled data. One of the tools is the official NASA open-sourced software called Kamodo. Kamodo allows users to work with complex space weather models and data with little or no coding experience. Additionally, to support transparent model validation efforts, the CCMC is providing an integrated and flexible framework called CAMEL. CAMEL allows users to seamlessly compare model outputs with observational data sets. Currently, we are working on a user-friendly database of the papers and research that used CCMC services, so that the future users will have open access to previously performed research by other users and its details. In this presentation, we will show the open tools and resources provided by the CCMC. Furthermore, we will share our new efforts to support open data and open science results.

Ja Soon Shim↗

NASA NTRS2015

CFD Validation Experiment of a Mach 2.5 Axisymmetric Shock-Wave/Boundary-Layer Interaction

Experimental investigations of specific flow phenomena, e.g., Shock Wave Boundary-Layer Interactions (SWBLI), provide great insight to the flow behavior but often lack the necessary details to be useful as CFD validation experiments. Reasons include: 1.Undefined boundary conditions Inconsistent results 2.Undocumented 3D effects (CL only measurements) 3.Lack of uncertainty analysis While there are a number of good subsonic experimental investigations that are sufficiently documented to be considered test cases for CFD and turbulence model validation, the number of supersonic and hypersonic cases is much less. This was highlighted by Settles and Dodsons [1] comprehensive review of available supersonic and hypersonic experimental studies. In all, several hundred studies were considered for their database.Of these, over a hundred were subjected to rigorous acceptance criteria. Based on their criteria, only 19 (12 supersonic, 7 hypersonic) were considered of sufficient quality to be used for validation purposes. Aeschliman and Oberkampf [2] recognized the need to develop a specific methodology for experimental studies intended specifically for validation purposes.

Turbulence Modeling↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data and script associated with “Shifts in Rain-Snow Partitioning Drive Faster Water Transit Times in the US Pacific Northwest”

This data package contains the data and code to use and run the Water Tracer enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic model (WT-WRF-Hydro) with the Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) framework. It is associated with the publication “Shifts in Rain-Snow Partitioning Drive Faster Water Transit Times in the US Pacific Northwest” published in Scientific Reports (Butler et al., 2026; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-46539-1). We use the Continental U.S. (CONUSII; Rasmussen et al., 2021) dataset to force the model with an historical climate (2006–2013) and a future climate (2086–2093) with a representative carbon pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. We use the model to calculate water transit times in five headwater catchments within the U.S. Pacific Northwest. We also show key hydrologic and environmental variables that affect water transit times and changes in the future. Finally, we use observed data to validate the model such as stream water isotopes, snowpack characteristics, and stream discharge. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. The data package consists of 11 folders: (1) "Figures" contains the exported figures used in the manuscript; (2) "Model_Isotope_Date" contains the WT-WRF-Hydro isotope date used in model validation; (3) “Model_Outputs_Future” contains the WT-WRF-Hydro future climate outputs; (4) “Model_Outputs_Historical” contains the WT-WRF-Hydro historical climate outputs; (5) “Model_Outputs_Weights_Areas” contains the WT-WRF-Hydro weights per catchment used to calculate water transit times and isotopes in stream water; (6) “MODIS_data_scripts” contains data used to validate snow conditions in the study area; (7) “Observed_Flow_Data” contains the observed streamflow data used in model validation; (8) “Observed_Isotope_Data” contains the observed stream water isotope data used in model validation; (9) “Scripts” contains the Python scripts used to general results and the figures; (10) “Statistic_Outputs” contains the water transit time statistical outputs reported in this manuscript; (11) “Validation_SNOTEL” contains the SNOTEL data used in model validation. The files in this data package have the following file extensions: .tif, .txt, .csv, .pdf, .py, .jpg, and .png.

American River↗