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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Comparative Study of Enhanced Geothermal System Supply Curves Across CONUS from Two Temperature Models Using the Renewable Energy Potential Model (reV)

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) have had recent breakthroughs within the geothermal sector. These breakthroughs are reflected in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 2024 Annual Technology Baseline and will result in updated EGS supply curves (i.e., the available resource capacity relative to cost). Our research uses NREL's Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model to compare EGS supply curves across the conterminous United States (CONUS) for two different temperature models: the Stanford temperature model (STM) and the Southern Methodist University temperature model (SMU). The reV model provides the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) at a consistent resolution across CONUS, taking into consideration transmission costs and constraints as well as technical exclusions pertaining to sensitive cultural, ecological, or infrastructure locations. In addition to a countrywide analysis of both models, we also conducted a regional analysis of Texas. We observed the STM had, on average, lower temperatures across different depths, resulting in slightly higher mean and median LCOEs as compared to the SMU temperature model at the same depths. In the regional analysis for Texas, however, when we compared only the common points between the two temperature models, the STM had lower median and mean LCOEs compared to SMU due to higher temperatures at depths greater than 5 km.

enhanced geothermal systems↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantification of modeling uncertainty in the Rayleigh damping model

Understanding and accurately characterizing energy dissipation mechanisms in civil structures during earthquakes is an important element of seismic assessment and design. The most commonly used model is attributed to Rayleigh. This paper proposes a systematic approach to quantify the uncertainty associated with Rayleigh's damping model. Bayesian calibration with embedded model error is employed to treat the coefficients of the Rayleigh model as random variables using modal damping ratios. Through a numerical example, we illustrate how this approach works and how the calibrated model can address modeling uncertainty associated with the Rayleigh damping model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automatic building energy model development and debugging using large language models agentic workflow

Building energy modeling (BEM) is a complex process that demands significant time and expertise, limiting its broader application in building design and operations. While Large Language Models (LLMs) agentic workflow have facilitated complex engineering processes, their application in BEM has not been specifically explored. This paper investigates the feasibility of automating BEM using LLM agentic workflow. Here, we developed a generic LLM-planning-based workflow that takes a building description as input and generates an error-free EnergyPlus building energy model. Our robust workflow includes four core agents: 1) Building Description Pre-Processing, 2) IDF Object Information Extraction, 3) Single IDF Object Generator Suite, and 4) IDF Debugging Agent. These agents divide the complex tasks into manageable sub-steps, enabling LLMs to generate accurate and reliable results at each stage. The case study demonstrates the successful translation of a building description into an error-free EnergyPlus model for the iUnit modular building at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The effectiveness of our workflow surpasses: 1) naive prompt engineering, 2) other LLM-based workflows, and 3) manual modeling, in terms of accuracy, reliability, and time efficiency. The paper concludes with a discussion on the interplay between foundational models and LLM agent planning design, advocating for the use of fine-tuned, specialized models to advance this field.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

The GFDL Global Atmosphere and Land Model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model Description, Sensitivity Studies, and Tuning Strategies

Here, in Part 2 of this two–part paper, documentation is provided of key aspects of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode has been provided in Part 1. Part 2 provides documentation of key components and some sensitivities to choices of model formulation and values of parameters, highlighting the convection parameterization and orographic gravity wave drag. The approach taken to tune the model's clouds to observations is a particular focal point. Care is taken to describe the extent to which aerosol effective forcing and Cess sensitivity have been tuned through the model development process, both of which are relevant to the ability of the model to simulate the evolution of temperatures over the last century when coupled to an ocean model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

An Iterative Local Updating Ensemble Smoother for Estimation and Uncertainty Assessment of Hydrologic Model Parameters With Multimodal Distributions

Abstract Ensemble smoother (ES) has been widely used in inverse modeling of hydrologic systems. However, for problems where the distribution of model parameters is multimodal, using ES directly would be problematic. One popular solution is to use a clustering algorithm to identify each mode and update the clusters with ES separately. However, this strategy may not be very efficient when the dimension of parameter space is high or the number of modes is large. Alternatively, we propose in this paper a very simple and efficient algorithm, i.e., the iterative local updating ensemble smoother (ILUES), to explore multimodal distributions of model parameters in nonlinear hydrologic systems. The ILUES algorithm works by updating local ensembles of each sample with ES to explore possible multimodal distributions. To achieve satisfactory data matches in nonlinear problems, we adopt an iterative form of ES to assimilate the measurements multiple times. Numerical cases involving nonlinearity and multimodality are tested to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. It is shown that overall the ILUES algorithm can well quantify the parametric uncertainties of complex hydrologic models, no matter whether the multimodal distribution exists.

Zhang, Jiangjiang↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine‐learning‐based construction of barrier functions and models for safe model predictive control

Abstract In this paper, we propose a control Lyapunov‐barrier function‐based model predictive control method utilizing a feed‐forward neural network specified control barrier function (CBF) and a recurrent neural network (RNN) predictive model to stabilize nonlinear processes with input constraints, and to guarantee that safety requirements are met for all times. The nonlinear system is first modeled using RNN techniques, and a CBF is characterized by constructing a feed‐forward neural network (FNN) model with unique structures and properties. The FNN model for the CBF is trained based on data samples collected from safe and unsafe operating regions, and the resulting FNN model is verified to demonstrate that the safety properties of the CBF are satisfied. Given sufficiently small bounded modeling errors for both the FNN and the RNN models, the proposed control system is able to guarantee closed‐loop stability while preventing the closed‐loop states from entering unsafe regions in state‐space under sample‐and‐hold control action implementation. We provide the theoretical analysis for bounded unsafe sets in state‐space, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy using a nonlinear chemical process example with a bounded unsafe region.

Chen, Scarlett↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Nonstationary and Non-Gaussian Moving Average Model for Solar Irradiance

Historically, power has flowed from large power plants to customers. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources such as solar power from rooftop photovoltaic has made the distribution network a two-way-street with power being generated at the customer level. The incorporation of renewables introduces additional uncertainty and variability into the power grid. Distribution network operation studies are being adapted to include renewables; however, such studies require high quality solar irradiance data that adequately reflect realistic meteorological variability. Data from satellite-based products are spatially complete, but temporally coarse, whereas solar irradiances exhibit high frequency variation at very fine timescales. We propose a new stochastic method for temporally downscaling global horizontal irradiance (GHI) to 1 min resolution, but we do not consider the spatial aspect due to limited availability of the in situ irradiance measurements. Solar irradiance's first and second-order structures vary diurnally and seasonally, and our model adapts to such nonstationarity. Empirical irradiance data exhibits highly non-Gaussian behavior; we develop a nonstationary and non-Gaussian moving average model that is shown to capture realistic solar variability at multiple timescales. We also propose a new estimation scheme based on Cholesky factors of empirical autocovariance matrices, bypassing difficult and inaccessible likelihood-based approaches. The model is demonstrated for a case study of three locations that are located in diverse climates through the United States. The model is compared against competitors from the literature and is shown to provide better uncertainty and variability quantification on testing data.

Cholesky factor↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling inter‐reader variability in clinical target volume delineation for soft tissue sarcomas using diffusion model

Abstract Background Accurate delineation of the clinical target volume (CTV) is essential in the radiotherapy treatment of soft tissue sarcomas. However, this process is subject to inter‐reader variability due to the need for clinical assessment of risk and extent of potential microscopic spread. This can lead to inconsistencies in treatment planning, potentially impacting treatment outcomes. Most existing automatic CTV delineation methods do not account for this variability and can only generate a single CTV for each case. Purpose This study aims to develop a deep learning‐based technique to generate multiple CTV contours for each case, simulating the inter‐reader variability in the clinical practice. Methods We employed a publicly available dataset consisting of fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG‐PET), x‐ray computed tomography (CT), and pre‐contrast T1‐weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans from 51 patients with soft tissue sarcoma, along with an independent validation set containing five additional patients. An experienced reader drew a contour of the gross tumor volume (GTV) for each patient based on multi‐modality images. Subsequently, two additional readers, together with the first one, were responsible for contouring three CTVs in total based on the GTV. We developed a diffusion model‐based deep learning method that is capable of generating arbitrary number of different and plausible CTVs to mimic the inter‐reader variability in CTV delineation. The proposed model incorporates a separate encoder to extract features from the GTV masks, leveraging the critical role of GTV information in accurate CTV delineation. Results The proposed diffusion model demonstrated superior performance with the highest Dice Index (0.902 compared to values below 0.881 for state‐of‐the‐art models) and the best generalized energy distance (GED) (0.209 compared to values exceeding 0.221 for state‐of‐the‐art models). It also achieved the second‐highest recall and precision metrics among the compared ambiguous image segmentation models. Results from both datasets exhibited consistent trends, reinforcing the reliability of our findings. Additionally, ablation studies exploring different model structures and input configurations highlighted the significance of incorporating prior GTV information for accurate CTV delineation. Conclusions The proposed diffusion model successfully generates multiple plausible CTV contours for soft tissue sarcomas, effectively capturing inter‐reader variability in CTV delineation.

Dong, Yafei [Yale Biomedical Imaging Institute Yal↗
DOE OSTI2021

Teleconnections of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation in a multi–model ensemble of QBO–resolving models

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to in-creased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. Furthermore, the models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific sector subtropical jet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting wind farm operations with machine learning and the P2D‐RANS model: A case study for an AWAKEN site

Abstract The power performance and the wind velocity field of an onshore wind farm are predicted with machine learning models and the pseudo‐2D RANS model, then assessed against SCADA data. The wind farm under investigation is one of the sites involved with the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN). The performed simulations enable predictions of the power capture at the farm and turbine levels while providing insights into the effects on power capture associated with wake interactions that operating upstream turbines induce, as well as the variability caused by atmospheric stability. The machine learning models show improved accuracy compared to the pseudo‐2D RANS model in the predictions of turbine power capture and farm power capture with roughly half the normalized error. The machine learning models also entail lower computational costs upon training. Further, the machine learning models provide predictions of the wind turbulence intensity at the turbine level for different wind and atmospheric conditions with very good accuracy, which is difficult to achieve through RANS modeling. Additionally, farm‐to‐farm interactions are noted, with adverse impacts on power predictions from both models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward real-time optimization through model reduction and model discrepancy sensitivities

Optimization problems arise in a range of scenarios, from optimal control to model parameter estimation. In many applications, such as the development of digital twins, it is essential to solve these optimization problems within wall-clock-time limitations. However, this is often unattainable for complex systems, such as those modeled by nonlinear partial differential equations. One strategy for mitigating this issue is to construct a reduced-order model (ROM) that enables more rapid optimization. In particular, the use of nonintrusive ROMs—those that do not require access to the full-order model at evaluation time—is popular because they facilitate the computation of optimization solutions within the wall-clock time requirements. However, the optimization solution will be unreliable if the iterates move outside the ROM training data. This article proposes the use of hyper-differential sensitivity analysis with respect to model discrepancy (HDSA-MD) as a computationally efficient tool to augment ROM-constrained optimization and improve its reliability. The proposed approach consists of two phases: (i) an offline phase where several full-order model evaluations are computed to train the ROM, and (ii) an online phase where a ROM-constrained optimization problem is solved, a limited number of full-order model evaluations are computed, and HDSA-MD is used to enhance the optimization solution. Numerical results are demonstrated for two examples, atmospheric contaminant control and wildfire ignition location estimation, in which a ROM is trained offline using inaccurate atmospheric data. In conclusion, the HDSA-MD update yields a significant improvement in the ROM-constrained optimization solution using only one full-order model evaluation online with corrected atmospheric data.

PDE-constrained optimization↗
DOE OSTI2018

Importance of filter’s microstructure in dynamic filtration modeling of gasoline particulate filters (GPFs): Inhomogeneous porosity and pore size distribution

The state-of-the-art multiscale modeling of GPFs including channel scale, wall scale, and pore scale is described. The microstructures of two GPFs were experimentally characterized. The pore size distributions of the GPFs were determined by mercury porosimetry. The porosity was measured by X-ray computed tomography (CT) and found to be inhomogeneous across the substrate wall. The significance of pore size distribution with respect to filtration performance was analyzed. The predictions of filtration efficiency were improved by including the pore size distribution in the filtration model. A dynamic heterogeneous multiscale filtration (HMF) model was utilized to simulate particulate filtration on a single channel particulate filter with realistic particulate emissions from a spark-ignition direct-injection (SIDI) gasoline engine. The dynamic evolution of filter’s microstructure and macroscopic filtration characteristics including mass- and number-based filtration efficiencies and pressure drop were predicted and discussed. The microstructure of the GPF substrate including inhomogeneous porosity and pore size distribution is found to significantly influence local particulate deposition inside the substrate and macroscopic filtration performance and is recommended to be resolved in the filtration model to simulate and evaluate the filtration performance of GPFs.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Methodology and Implementation of Automated Emissions Harmonization for Use in Integrated Assessment Models

Emissions harmonization refers to the process used to match greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant results from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) against a common source of historical emissions. To date, harmonization has been performed separately by individual modeling teams. For the hand-over of emission data for the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to climate model groups, a new automated approach based on commonly agreed upon algorithms was developed. This work describes the novel methodology for determining such harmonization methods and an open-source Python software library implementing the methodology. Results are shown for two example scenarios (with and without climate policy cases) using the MESSAGE-GLOBIOM IAM that satisfactorily harmonize over 96% of the total emissions trajectories while having a negligible eect on key long-term climate indicators. This new capability enhances the comparability across dierent models, increases transparency and robustness of results, and allows other teams to easily participate in intercomparison exercises by using the same, openly available harmonization mechanism.

intergrated assessment, climate change, Harmonizat↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of the cytotoxic and cellular proteome impacts of food-grade TiO2 (E171) using simulated gastrointestinal digestions and a tri-culture small intestinal epithelial model

Engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) are widely used in the food industry; however, regulations for ENMs in food are still in the early stages of development due to insufficient health data. This study investigated the cytotoxicity and changes to the proteomic profile in an in vitro small intestinal epithelium model after exposure to digested food models containing the ubiquitous engineered particulate food additive, TiO2 (E171). TiO2 at 0.75% or 1.5% (w/w) concentrations in either a fasting food model (FFM) or a standardized food model (SFM) based on American diet were digested using an in vitro oral-gastric-small intestinal simulator, and the resulting digestas were applied to a small intestinal epithelium tri-culture cellular model. Effects on cell layer integrity, cytotoxicity, and oxidative stress were assessed. In order to explore impact on cellular processes beyond basic cytotoxicity, mass spectrometrybased quantitative proteomic analyses of control and exposed tri-culture cells was performed. TiO2 in FFM, but not in SFM, produced significant, dose-dependent cytotoxicity, and at the higher dose caused significant oxidative stress, indicative of a food matrix effect. No significant perturbations of the cellular proteome were observed with TiO2 in either FFM or SFM food models. However, proteins involved in the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle, gluconeogenesis, and translation were up-regulated by digestas from SFM compared to those from FFM, also indicative of food matrix effects in the case of food models alone. Interestingly, the differences in profiles between the two food models was more pronounced in the presence of TiO2 indicative of food matrix effects. Together, these results indicate that TiO2 in a fasting diet may be slightly cytotoxic, and that ingested TiO2 does not significantly alter the epithelial proteome, whereas the food matrix alone can have a dramatic effect on the proteome.

Cao, Xiaoqiong↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mesoscale Modeling of the Effects of Accelerated Burnup on UO2 Microstructural Evolution

Accelerating the nuclear fuel qualification process will rely on some combination of advanced modeling and simulation techniques with accelerated irradiation testing and separate effects experiments to enable the development of new fuel concepts in a shorter time frame. One of the key challenges to successfully leveraging accelerated irradiation tests will be understanding the artifacts that may be introduced with accelerated accumulation of dose and/or burnup. This work presents phase field (MARMOT) simulations of the evolution of representative 2D UO2 microstructures up to 40 MWd/kgU. Simulations were performed under both commercial light water reactor fuel conditions as well as those that would be expected for highly accelerated (~10x) burnup conditions similar to those used in the MiniFuel irradiations in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s High Flux Isotope Reactor. The phase field model was coupled with a discrete nucleation algorithm to model re- structuring at high burnup. The effect of the different fission rates in both microstructures was investigated at two temperatures: 650?C and 800?C. The lower temperature simulations both showed an onset of restructuring at nearly 60 MWd/kgU. More extensive restructuring was obtained in the MiniFuel microstructure compared with that of the PWR fuel. At 800?C, no restructuring was obtained as a result of the thermally activated diffusion of Xe atoms and U vacancies to fission gas bubbles, which reduces the nucleation driving force. These results highlight the importance of using modeling and simulation tools to inform the environmental conditions during targeted accelerated irradiation tests to extract the most useful fuel performance data.

accelerated fuel qualification, Phase Field, Restr↗
DOE OSTI2018

Radiation Anomaly Detection and Classification with Bayes Model Selection

We present a new method for radiation anomaly detection that is based on Bayes Model Selection (BMS), together with models for gamma-radiation measurements from benign and threat sources. The method estimates the relative odds of pairs of such models, with the aim of supporting related hypotheses about the nature of the underlying source material. We also discuss partial optimization of the parameters in the models. The method allows measurements to be broadly categorized and screened for sources of interest in real time, a property that should improve the efficiency of mobile search or unattended monitoring operations.

Anomaly detection, Gamma-ray spectroscopy, Radiati↗
DOE OSTI2018

Challenges in Modeling Electrochemical Reaction Energetics with Polarizable Continuum Models

A major challenge in the modeling of electrochemical phenomena is the accurate description of the interface between an electrolyte and a charged conductor. Polarizable continuum models (PCM) have been gaining popularity because they offer a computationally inexpensive method of modeling the electrolyte. In this Perspective, we discuss challenges from using one such model which treats the ions using a linearized Poisson–Boltzmann (LPB) distribution. From a physical perspective, this model places charge unphysically close to the surface and adsorbates, and it includes excessively steep ramping of the dielectric constant from the surface to the bulk solvent. Both of these issues can be somewhat mitigated by adjusting parameters built into the model, but in doing so, the resultant capacitance deviates from experimental values. Likewise, hybrid explicit-implicit approaches to the solvent may offer a more realistic description of hydrogen bonding and solvation to reaction intermediates, but the corresponding capacitances also deviate from experimental values. These deviations highlight the need for a careful adjustment of parameters in order to reproduce not only solvation energies but also other physical properties of solid–liquid interfaces. Continuum approaches alone also necessarily do not capture local variations in the electric field from cations at the interface, which can affect the energetics of intermediates with substantial dipoles or polarizability. Finally, since the double-layer charge can be varied continuously, LPB/PCM models provide a way to determine electrochemical barriers at constant potential. However, double-layer charging and the atomic motion associated with reaction events occur on significantly different timescales. As a result, we suggest that more detailed approaches, such as the modified Poisson–Boltzmann model and/or the addition of a Stern layer, may be able to mitigate some but not all of the challenges discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗