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At least 523 records · Page 29

A Revised Model of Jupiter's Inner Electron Belts: Updating the Divine Radiation Model

In 1983, Divine presented a comprehensive model of the Jovian charged particle environment that has long served as a reference for missions to Jupiter. However, in situ observations by Galileo and synchrotron observations from Earth indicate the need to update the model in the inner radiation zone. Specifically, a review of the model for 1 MeV < E < 100 MeV trapped electrons suggests that, based on the new synchrotron observations, the pitch angle distributions within L < 4 need to be updated by introducing two additional components: one near the Jovian magnetic equator and one at high magnetic latitudes. We report modifications to the model that reproduce these observations. The new model improves the fit to synchrotron emission observations and remains consistent with the original fit to the in situ Pioneer and Voyager data. Further modifications incorporating observations from the Galileo and Cassini spacecraft will be reported in the future.

missions↗

Modeling the Non-Linear Response of Fiber-Reinforced Laminates Using a Combined Damage/Plasticity Model

The present work is concerned with modeling the non-linear response of fiber reinforced polymer laminates. Recent experimental data suggests that the non-linearity is not only caused by matrix cracking but also by matrix plasticity due to shear stresses. To capture the effects of those two mechanisms, a model combining a plasticity formulation with continuum damage has been developed to simulate the non-linear response of laminates under plane stress states. The model is used to compare the predicted behavior of various laminate lay-ups to experimental data from the literature by looking at the degradation of axial modulus and Poisson s ratio of the laminates. The influence of residual curing stresses and in-situ effect on the predicted response is also investigated. It is shown that predictions of the combined damage/plasticity model, in general, correlate well with the experimental data. The test data shows that there are two different mechanisms that can have opposite effects on the degradation of the laminate Poisson s ratio which is captured correctly by the damage/plasticity model. Residual curing stresses are found to have a minor influence on the predicted response for the cases considered here. Some open questions remain regarding the prediction of damage onset.

Schuecker, Clara↗

Observations and Modeling of Composition of Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere (UTILS): Isentropic Mixing Events and Morphology of HNO3 as Observed by HIRDLS and Comparison with Results from Global Modeling Initiative

isentropic exchange of air masses between the tropical upper troposphere and mid-latitude lowermost stratosphere (the so-called "middle world") is an important pathway for stratospheric-tropospheric exchange. A seasonal, global view of this process has been difficult to obtain, in part due to the lack of the vertical resolution in satellite observations needed to capture the laminar character of these events. Ozone observations at a resolution of about 1 km from the High Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) on NASA's Aura satellite show instances of these intrusions. Such intrusions should also be observable in HN03 observations; however, the abundances of nitric acid could be additionally controlled by chemical processes or incorporation and removal into ice clouds. We present a systematic examination of the HIRDLS data on O3 and HNO3 to determine the seasonal and spatial characteristics of the distribution of isentropic intrusions. At the same time, we compare the observed distributions with those calculated by the Global Modeling Initiative combined tropospheric-stratospheric model, which has a vertical resolution of about I km. This Chemical Transport Model (CTM) is driven by meteorological fields obtained from the GEOS-4 system of NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), for the Aura time period, at a vertical resolution of about 1 km. Such comparison brings out the successes and limitations of the model in representing isentropic stratospheric-tropospheric exchange, and the different processes controlling HNO3 in the UTAS.

Rodriquez, J. M.↗

Rough-water Landings of a 0.1-Size Powered Dynamic Model of the XP5Y-1 Flying Boat with Two Types of Afterbody - Langley Tank Model 228 (TED No. NACA DE309)

A 0.1-size powered dynamic model of a large, high-speed flying boat was landed in Langley tank no. 1 into oncoming waves 4 feet high (full size). The model was tested with two afterbodies of differing lengths (4.12 and 6.63 beams). The short afterbody had a constant angle of dead rise of 22.5deg and a keel angle of 6.5deg. The long afterbody had warped dead rise and a keel angle of 8.5deg. The vertical accelerations were slightly greater and the maximum angular accelerations and maxim= trims were slightly less for the model with the long afterbody than for the model with -the short afterbody. A wave length of 210 feet (full size) imposed the highest accelerations on the model with either the long or the short afterbody.

Garrison, Charlie C.↗

Validation of Community Models: Identifying Events in Space Weather Model Timelines

I develop and document a set of procedures which test the quality of predictions of solar wind speed and polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) made by coupled models of the ambient solar corona and heliosphere. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is used to illustrate the application of these validation procedures. I present an algorithm which detects transitions of the solar wind from slow to high speed. I also present an algorithm which processes the measured polarity of the outward directed component of the IMF. This removes high-frequency variations to expose the longer-scale changes that reflect IMF sector changes. I apply these algorithms to WSA model predictions made using a small set of photospheric synoptic magnetograms obtained by the Global Oscillation Network Group as input to the model. The results of this preliminary validation of the WSA model (version 1.6) are summarized.

MacNeice, Peter↗

Microstructural Characterization of Metal Foams: An Examination of the Applicability of the Theoretical Models for Modeling Foams

Establishing the geometry of foam cells is useful in developing microstructure-based acoustic and structural models. Since experimental data on the geometry of the foam cells are limited, most modeling efforts use an idealized three-dimensional, space-filling Kelvin tetrakaidecahedron. The validity of this assumption is investigated in the present paper. Several FeCrAlY foams with relative densities varying between 3 and 15 percent and cells per mm (c.p.mm.) varying between 0.2 and 3.9 c.p.mm. were microstructurally evaluated. The number of edges per face for each foam specimen was counted by approximating the cell faces by regular polygons, where the number of cell faces measured varied between 207 and 745. The present observations revealed that 50 to 57 percent of the cell faces were pentagonal while 24 to 28 percent were quadrilateral and 15 to 22 percent were hexagonal. The present measurements are shown to be in excellent agreement with literature data. It is demonstrated that the Kelvin model, as well as other proposed theoretical models, cannot accurately describe the FeCrAlY foam cell structure. Instead, it is suggested that the ideal foam cell geometry consists of 11 faces with three quadrilateral, six pentagonal faces and two hexagonal faces consistent with the 3-6-2 Matzke cell. A compilation of 90 years of experimental data reveals that the average number of cell faces decreases linearly with the increasing ratio of quadrilateral to pentagonal faces. It is concluded that the Kelvin model is not supported by these experimental data.

Raj, S. V.↗

Medical Updates Number 5 to the International Space Station Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) Model Using the Integrated Medical Model

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project has been developing a probabilistic risk assessment tool, the IMM, to help evaluate in-flight crew health needs and impacts to the mission due to medical events. This package is a follow-up to a data package provided in June 2009. The IMM currently represents 83 medical conditions and associated ISS resources required to mitigate medical events. IMM end state forecasts relevant to the ISS PRA model include evacuation (EVAC) and loss of crew life (LOCL). The current version of the IMM provides the basis for the operational version of IMM expected in the January 2011 timeframe. The objectives of this data package are: 1. To provide a preliminary understanding of medical risk data used to update the ISS PRA Model. The IMM has had limited validation and an initial characterization of maturity has been completed using NASA STD 7009 Standard for Models and Simulation. The IMM has been internally validated by IMM personnel but has not been validated by an independent body external to the IMM Project. 2. To support a continued dialogue between the ISS PRA and IMM teams. To ensure accurate data interpretation, and that IMM output format and content meets the needs of the ISS Risk Management Office and ISS PRA Model, periodic discussions are anticipated between the risk teams. 3. To help assess the differences between the current ISS PRA and IMM medical risk forecasts of EVAC and LOCL. Follow-on activities are anticipated based on the differences between the current ISS PRA medical risk data and the latest medical risk data produced by IMM.

Butler, Doug↗

Toward Realistic Simulation of low-Level Clouds Using a Multiscale Modeling Framework With a Third-Order Turbulence Closure in its Cloud-Resolving Model Component

This study presents preliminary results from a multiscale modeling framework (MMF) with an advanced third-order turbulence closure in its cloud-resolving model (CRM) component. In the original MMF, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.5) is used as the host general circulation model (GCM), and the System for Atmospheric Modeling with a first-order turbulence closure is used as the CRM for representing cloud processes in each grid box of the GCM. The results of annual and seasonal means and diurnal variability are compared between the modified and original MMFs and the CAM3.5. The global distributions of low-level cloud amounts and precipitation and the amounts of low-level clouds in the subtropics and middle-level clouds in mid-latitude storm track regions in the modified MMF show substantial improvement relative to the original MMF when both are compared to observations. Some improvements can also be seen in the diurnal variability of precipitation.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗

Validation of Space Weather Models at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multiagency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather modes. CCMC goal is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. The presentation will demonstrate the recent progress in CCMC metrics and validation activities.

Kuznetsova, M. M.↗

Development of the Transport Class Model (TCM) Aircraft Simulation From a Sub-Scale Generic Transport Model (GTM) Simulation

A six degree-of-freedom, flat-earth dynamics, non-linear, and non-proprietary aircraft simulation was developed that is representative of a generic mid-sized twin-jet transport aircraft. The simulation was developed from a non-proprietary, publicly available, subscale twin-jet transport aircraft simulation using scaling relationships and a modified aerodynamic database. The simulation has an extended aerodynamics database with aero data outside the normal transport-operating envelope (large angle-of-attack and sideslip values). The simulation has representative transport aircraft surface actuator models with variable rate-limits and generally fixed position limits. The simulation contains a generic 40,000 lb sea level thrust engine model. The engine model is a first order dynamic model with a variable time constant that changes according to simulation conditions. The simulation provides a means for interfacing a flight control system to use the simulation sensor variables and to command the surface actuators and throttle position of the engine model.

Hueschen, Richard M.↗

Downscaling Soil Moisture in the Southern Great Plains Through a Calibrated Multifractal Model for Land Surface Modeling Applications

Accounting for small-scale spatial heterogeneity of soil moisture (theta) is required to enhance the predictive skill of land surface models. In this paper, we present the results of the development, calibration, and performance evaluation of a downscaling model based on multifractal theory using aircraft!based (800 m) theta estimates collected during the southern Great Plains experiment in 1997 (SGP97).We first demonstrate the presence of scale invariance and multifractality in theta fields of nine square domains of size 25.6 x 25.6 sq km, approximately a satellite footprint. Then, we estimate the downscaling model parameters and evaluate the model performance using a set of different calibration approaches. Results reveal that small-scale theta distributions are adequately reproduced across the entire region when coarse predictors include a dynamic component (i.e., the spatial mean soil moisture ) and a stationary contribution accounting for static features (i.e., topography, soil texture, vegetation). For wet conditions, we found similar multifractal properties of soil moisture across all domains, which we ascribe to the signature of rainfall spatial variability. For drier states, the theta fields in the northern domains are more intermittent than in southern domains, likely because of differences in the distribution of vegetation coverage. Through our analyses, we propose a regional downscaling relation for coarse, satellite-based soil moisture estimates, based on ancillary information (static and dynamic landscape features), which can be used in the study area to characterize statistical properties of small-scale theta distribution required by land surface models and data assimilation systems.

Mascaro, Giuseppe↗

Unsteady Aerodynamic Modeling in Roll for the NASA Generic Transport Model

Reducing the impact of loss-of-control conditions on commercial transport aircraft is a primary goal of the NASA Aviation Safety Program. One aspect in developing the supporting technologies is to improve the aerodynamic models that represent these adverse conditions. Aerodynamic models appropriate for loss of control conditions require a more general mathematical representation to predict nonlinear unsteady behaviors. In this paper, a more general mathematical model is proposed for the subscale NASA Generic Transport Model (GTM) that covers both low and high angles of attack. Particular attention is devoted to the stall region where full-scale transports have demonstrated a tendency for roll instability. The complete aerodynamic model was estimated from dynamic wind-tunnel data. Advanced computational methods are used to improve understanding and visualize the flow physics within the region where roll instability is a factor.

Murphy, Patrick C.↗

Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Warm Season Deep Convective Initiation Modeling Experiment using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

The initiation of deep convection during the warm season is a forecast challenge in the relative high instability and low wind shear environment of the U.S. Deep South. Despite improved knowledge of the character of well known mesoscale features such as local sea-, bay- and land-breezes, observations show the evolution of these features fall well short in fully describing the location of first initiates. A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center was undertaken during the 2012 warm season to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System. The NASA products were: a 4-km Land Information System data, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with a 9 km outer grid spacing and a 3 km inner nest spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the forecast timing and location of the first initiates, with a focus on the impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

Medlin, Jeffrey M.↗

Multi-model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation Historical and Projected Changes

We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multi-model mean deposition of 50 Tg(N) yr1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching 1300 mg(N) m2 yr1 averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, 3050 larger than the values in any region currently (2000). The new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

Lamarque, J.-F.↗

The Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: A Case Study over the Continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models

Dynamical downscaling is being increasingly used for climate change studies, wherein the climates simulated by a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) for a historical and a future (projected) decade are used to drive a regional climate model (RCM) over a specific area. While previous studies have demonstrated that RCMs can add value to AOGCM-simulated climatologies over different world regions, it is unclear as to whether or not this translates to a better reproduction of the observed climate change therein. We address this issue over the continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF models, a state-of-the-science AOGCM and RCM, respectively. As configured here, the RCM does not effect holistic improvement in the seasonally and regionally averaged surface air temperature or precipitation for the individual historical decades. Insofar as the climate change between the two decades is concerned, the RCM does improve upon the AOGCM when nudged in the domain proper, but only modestly so. Further, the analysis indicates that there is not a strong relationship between skill in capturing climatological means and skill in capturing climate change. Though additional research would be needed to demonstrate the robustness of this finding in AOGCM/RCM models generally, the evidence indicates that, for climate change studies, the most important factor is the skill of the driving global model itself, suggesting that highest priority should be given to improving the long-range climate skill of AOGCMs.

Racherla, P. N.↗

Variations in Modeled Dengue Transmission over Puerto Rico Using a Climate Driven Dynamic Model

Dengue fever is a mosquito‐borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Because of variations in topography, ocean influences and atmospheric processes, temperature and rainfall patterns vary across Puerto Rico and so do dengue virus transmission rates. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input, ground‐based observations for temperature input, and laboratory confirmed dengue cases reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for parameter calibration, we modeled dengue transmission at the county level across Puerto Rico from 2010‐2013 using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations for each county in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. The top 1% of model simulations that best reproduced the reported dengue case data were then analyzed to determine the most important parameters for dengue virus transmission in each county, as well as the relative influence of climate variability on transmission. These results can be used by public health workers to implement dengue control methods that are targeted for specific locations and climate conditions.

Morin, Cory↗

Model Validation for Propulsion - On the TFNS and LES Subgrid Models for a Bluff Body Stabilized Flame

With advances in computational power and availability of distributed computers, the use of even the most complex of turbulent chemical interaction models in combustors and coupled analysis of combustors and turbines is now possible and more and more affordable for realistic geometries. Recent more stringent emission standards have enticed the development of more fuel-efficient and low-emission combustion system for aircraft gas turbine applications. It is known that the NOx emissions tend to increase dramatically with increasing flame temperature. It is well known that the major difficulty, when modeling the turbulence-chemistry interaction, lies in the high non-linearity of the reaction rate expressed in terms of the temperature and species mass fractions. The transport filtered density function (FDF) model and the linear eddy model (LEM), which both use local instantaneous values of the temperature and mass fractions, have been shown to often provide more accurate results of turbulent combustion. In the present, the time-filtered Navier-Stokes (TFNS) approach capable of capturing unsteady flow structures important for turbulent mixing in the combustion chamber and two different subgrid models, LEM-like and EUPDF-like, capable of emulating the major processes occurring in the turbulence-chemistry interaction will be used to perform reacting flow simulations of a selected test case. The selected test case from the Volvo Validation Rig was documented by Sjunnesson.

bluff body↗

Meteoroid Environment Modeling: the Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting

INTRODUCTION: The meteoroid environment is often divided conceptually into meteor showers and the sporadic meteor background. It is commonly but incorrectly assumed that meteoroid impacts primarily occur during meteor showers; instead, the vast majority of hazardous meteoroids belong to the sporadic complex. Unlike meteor showers, which persist for a few hours to a few weeks, sporadic meteoroids impact the Earth's atmosphere and spacecraft throughout the year. The Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has produced two environment models to handle these cases: the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and an annual meteor shower forecast. The sporadic complex, despite its year-round activity, is not isotropic in its directionality. Instead, their apparent points of origin, or radiants, are organized into groups called "sources". The speed, directionality, and size distribution of these sporadic sources are modeled by the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM), which is currently in its second major release version (MEMR2) [Moorhead et al., 2015]. MEM provides the meteoroid flux relative to a user-provided spacecraft trajectory; it provides the total flux as well as the flux per angular bin, speed interval, and on specific surfaces (ram, wake, etc.). Because the sporadic complex dominates the meteoroid flux, MEM is the most appropriate model to use in spacecraft design. Although showers make up a small fraction of the meteoroid environment, they can produce significant short-term enhancements of the meteoroid flux. Thus, it can be valuable to consider showers when assessing risks associated with vehicle operations that are brief in duration. To assist with such assessments, the MEO issues an annual forecast that reports meteor shower fluxes as a function of time and compares showers with the time-averaged total meteoroid flux. This permits missions to do quick assessments of the increase in risk posed by meteor showers.

Moorhead, Althea V.↗