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DOE OSTI2014

W.A. Parish Post-Combustion CO{sub 2} Capture and Sequestration Project Phase 1 Definition

For a secure and sustainable energy future, the United States (U.S.) must reduce its dependence on imported oil and reduce its emissions of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs). To meet these strategic challenges, the U.S. wiU have to create fundamentally new technologies with performance levels far beyond what is now possible. Developing advanced post-combustion clean coal technologies for capturing CO{sub 2} from existing coal-fired power plants can play a major role in the country's transition to a sustainable energy future, especially when coupled with CO{sub 2}-enhanced oil recovery (CO{sub 2}-EOR). Pursuant to these goals, NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) submitted an application and entered into a cost-shared collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Round 3 of the Clean Coal Power Initiative (CCPI) to advance low-emission coal technologies. The objective of the NRG W A Parish Post-Combustion CO{sub 2} Capture and Sequestration Demonstration Project is to establish the technical feasibility and economic viability of post-combustion CO{sub 2} capture using flue gas from an existing pulverized coal-fired boiler integrated with geologic sequestration via an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) process. To achieve these objectives, the project will be executed in three phases. Each phase represents a distinct aspect of the project execution. The project phases are: • Phase I. Project Definition/Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) • Phase ll. Detailed Engineering, Procurement & Construction • Phase III. Demonstration and Monitoring The purpose of Phase I is to develop the project in sufficient detail to facilitate the decision-making process in progressing to the next stage of project delivery. Phase n. This report provides a complete summary of the FEED study effort, including pertinent project background information, the scope of facilities covered, decisions, challenges, and considerations made regarding configuration and performance of the facility, along with the conceptual design and estimate results. The findings of this report should be considered conceptual in nature and are conditioned on the statements contained herein. The cost of preparing this report (including the FEED study described herein) was funded in part by a $167-million grant provided by the U.S. DOE.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Brigham City Hydro Generation Project

Brigham City owns and operates its own municipal power system which currently includes several hydroelectric facilities. This project was to update the efficiency and capacity of current hydro production due to increased water flow demands that could pass through existing generation facilities. During 2006-2012, this project completed efficiency evaluation as it related to its main objective by completing a feasibility study, undergoing necessary City Council approvals and required federal environmental reviews. As a result of Phase 1 of the project, a feasibility study was conducted to determine feasibility of hydro and solar portions of the original proposal. The results indicated that the existing Hydro plant which was constructed in the 1960’s was running at approximately 77% efficiency or less. Brigham City proposes that the efficiency calculations be refined to determine the economic feasibility of improving or replacing the existing equipment with new high efficiency equipment design specifically for the site. Brigham City completed the Feasibility Assessment of this project, and determined that the Upper Hydro that supplies the main culinary water to the city was feasible to continue with. Brigham City Council provided their approval of feasibility assessment’s results. The Upper Hydro Project include removal of the existing powerhouse equipment and controls and demolition of a section of concrete encased penstock, replacement of penstock just upstream of the turbine inlet, turbine bypass, turbine shut-off and bypass valves, turbine and generator package, control equipment, assembly, start-up, commissioning, Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA), and the replacement of a section of conductors to the step-up transformer. Brigham City increased the existing 575 KW turbine and generator with an 825 KW turbine and generator. Following the results of the feasibility assessment Brigham City pursued required environmental reviews with the DOE and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services (USFWS) concurring with the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) It was determined that Brigham City’s Upper Hydroelectric Power Plant upgrade would have no effect to federally listed or candidate species. However Brigham City has contributed a onetime lump sum towards Bonneville cutthroat trout conservation in the Northern Bonneville Geographic Management Unit with the intention to offset any impacts from the Upper Hydro Project needed to move forward with design and construction and is sufficient for NEPA compliance. No work was done in the river or river bank. During construction, the penstock was disconnected and water was diverted through and existing system around the powerhouse and back into the water system. The penstock, which is currently a 30-inch steel pipe, would be removed and replaced with a new section of 30-inch pipe. Brigham City worked with the DOE and was awarded a new modification and the permission to proceed with Phase III of our Hydro Project in Dec. 2013; with the exception to the modification of the award for the construction phase. Brigham City developed and issued a Request for Proposal for Engineer and Design vendor. Sunrise Engineering was selected for the Design and throughout the Construction Phase of the Upper Hydroelectric Power Plant. Brigham City conducted a Kickoff Meeting with Sunrise June 28, 2013 and received a Scope of Work Brigham City along with engineering firm sent out a RFP for Turbine, Generator and Equipment for Upper Hydro. We select Turbine/Generator Equipment from Canyon Industries located in Deming, WA. DOE awarded Brigham City a new modification and the permission to proceed with Phase III Construction of our Hydro Project. Brigham City Crews removed existing turbine/generator and old equipment alone with feeder wires coming into the building basically giving Caribou Construction an empty shell to begin demolition. Brigham City contracted with Caribou Construction from Jerome, Idaho for the Upper Power Plant construction. A kickoff meeting was June 24, 2014 and demolition was immediately started on building. Because of a delivery delay of Turbine, Generator and Equipment from Canyon Brigham City had to request another extension for the final date of completion. DOE awarded modification (.007) to Brigham City with a new completion date of August 1, 2015. The Turbine has had a few adjustments to help with efficiency; but the Generator had a slight vibration when generator got hot so Canyon Industries had U S Motor’s that manufactured the generator come to check out the issue. The other Equipment seems to be running normal. Brigham City, Sunrise Engineering and Canyon Industries met to determine what the vibration in the generator was and how to solve the issue Us Motor’s found some welds that failed: they have been repaired. U S Motor’s delivered the repaired generator Feb. 17, 2015. Canyon Industries arranged for a crane to installed generator in Power Plant. U S Motor’s balanced and wired generator. Plant Operators put the generator back on line. Canyon Industries returned and gave their approval to keep Hydro online. After Hydro was put back into operations it kept going off line because of overheating issues. Canyon Industries returned and replaced sensors and adjusted them to the proper settings for normal operations. Brigham City added additional steel screens to windows to increase air flow in Power Plant Building. After construction phase of the Upper Hydro Plant some landscaping has been restored around the building additional gravel brought in and leveled out and the road that was cut through for conduits to run wires. A retaining wall was installed to protect penstock. The Upper Hydro Plant is complete and in full operations. The final reimbursement was submitted.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

15 MW HArdware-in-the-loop Grid Simulation Project

The 15MW Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) Grid Simulator project was to (1) design, (2) construct and (3) commission a state-of-the-art grid integration testing facility for testing of multi-megawatt devices through a ‘shared facility’ model open to all innovators to promote the rapid introduction of new technology in the energy market to lower the cost of energy delivered. The 15 MW HIL Grid Simulator project now serves as the cornerstone of the Duke Energy Electric Grid Research, Innovation and Development (eGRID) Center. This project leveraged the 24 kV utility interconnection and electrical infrastructure of the US DOE EERE funded WTDTF project at the Clemson University Restoration Institute in North Charleston, SC. Additionally, the project has spurred interest from other technology sectors, including large PV inverter and energy storage testing and several leading edge research proposals dealing with smart grid technologies, grid modernization and grid cyber security. The key components of the project are the power amplifier units capable of providing up to 20MW of defined power to the research grid. The project has also developed a one of a kind solution to performing fault ride-through testing by combining a reactive divider network and a large power converter into a hybrid method. This unique hybrid method of performing fault ride-through analysis will allow for the research team at the eGRID Center to investigate the complex differences between the alternative methods of performing fault ride-through evaluations and will ultimately further the science behind this testing. With the final goal of being able to perform HIL experiments and demonstration projects, the eGRID team undertook a significant challenge with respect to developing a control system that is capable of communicating with several different pieces of equipment with different communication protocols in real-time. The eGRID team developed a custom fiber optical network that is based upon FPGA hardware that allows for communication between the key real-time interfaces and reduces the latency between these interfaces to acceptable levels for HIL experiments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2014

Budget Period 1 Summary Report: Hywind Maine Project

In accordance with the Statement of Project Objectives (SOPO) agreed to between the Department of Energy (“DOE”) and Statoil for the Hywind Maine project, Statoil hereby submits a Budget Period 1 Summary Report which includes accomplishments for the project. The report includes summaries of the other submitted reports (see Section 1.2-2) and progress regarding innovations leading to potential reductions in the Cost of Energy (see Section 3). The Hywind Demo project, the world’s first full-scale 2.3 megawatts (MW) floating wind turbine, installed at a water depth of 200 meter (m), 10 kilometer (km) off the coast of Norway, has proven that the Hywind floating substructure is a suitable platform for conventional multi- MW turbines. A principal goal of the Hywind Maine Project was to leverage that experience, both to demonstrate the commercial feasibility of the technology and to further develop and optimize the technology all in order to bring the costs down in a larger scale development. With the Hywind Maine Project, Statoil planned to deploy four turbines of 3 MW in approximately 140 meters water depth. Although the project in Maine will not move forward, much value was gained through the BP1 work package. Advanced modeling related to the design basis, which will have applicability beyond the Maine project, was completed. In addition, initial supply chain analyses were conducted, which will help assist with development of updated cost of energy models. Geophysical and various environmental surveys were also conducted, the results of which Statoil has committed to share publicly, and which will help build a database of information that future developers may be able to access. Finally, Statoil gained a greater understanding of the US offshore wind industry and related markets, which will assist the company as it looks for full-scale, commercial opportunities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Final report for project "Effects of Low-Dose Irradiation on NFkB Signaling Networks and Mitochondria"

Low dose ionizing radiation effects are difficult to study in human population because of the numerous confounding factors such as genetic and lifestyle differences. Research in mammalian model systems and in vitro is generally used in order to overcome this difficulty. In this program project three projects have joined together to investigate effects of low doses of ionizing radiation. These are doses at and below 10 cGy of low linear energy transfer ionizing radiation such as X-ray and gamma rays. This project was focused on cellular signaling associated with nuclear factor kappa B (NFkB) and mitochondria - subcellular organelles critical for cell aging and aging-like changes induced by ionizing radiation. In addition to cells in culture this project utilized animal tissues accumulated in a radiation biology tissue archive housed at Northwestern University (http://janus.northwestern.edu/janus2/index.php). Major trust of Project 1 was to gather all of the DoE sponsored irradiated animal (mouse, rat and dog) data and tissues under one roof and investigate mitochondrial DNA changes and micro RNA changes in these samples. Through comparison of different samples we were trying to delineate mitochondrial DNA quantity alterations and micro RNA expression differences associated with different doses and dose rates of radiation. Historic animal irradiation experiments sponsored by DoE were done in several national laboratories and universities between 1950’s and 1990’s; while these experiments were closed data and tissues were released to Project 1. Project 2 used cells in culture to investigate effects that low doses or radiation have on NFκB and its target genes manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD) and genes involved in cell cycle: Cyclins (B1 and D1) and cyclin dependent kinases (CDKs). Project 3 used cells in culture such as “normal” human cells (breast epithelial cell line MCF10A cells and skin keratinocyte cells HK18) and mouse embryo fibroblast (mef) cells to focus on role of NFkB protein and several other proteins such as survivin (BIRC5) in radiation dependent regulation of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) and its downstream signaling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Benefits Analysis of Smart Grid Projects. White paper, 2014-2016

Smart grids are rolling out internationally, with the United States (U.S.) nearing completion of a significant USD4-plus-billion federal program funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA-2009). The emergence of smart grids is widespread across developed countries. Multiple approaches to analyzing the benefits of smart grids have emerged. The goals of this white paper are to review these approaches and analyze examples of each to highlight their differences, advantages, and disadvantages. This work was conducted under the auspices of a joint U.S.-China research effort, the Climate Change Working Group (CCWG) Implementation Plan, Smart Grid. We present comparative benefits assessments (BAs) of smart grid demonstrations in the U.S. and China along with a BA of a pilot project in Europe. In the U.S., we assess projects at two sites: (1) the University of California, Irvine campus (UCI), which consists of two distinct demonstrations: Southern California Edison’s (SCE) Irvine Smart Grid Demonstration Project (ISGD) and the UCI campus itself; and (2) the Navy Yard (TNY) area in Philadelphia, which has been repurposed as a mixed commercial-industrial, and possibly residential, development. In China, we cover several smart-grid aspects of the Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city (TEC) and the Shenzhen Bay Technology and Ecology City (B-TEC). In Europe, we look at a BA of a pilot smart grid project in the Malagrotta area west of Rome, Italy, contributed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. The Irvine sub-project BAs use the U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. DOE) Smart Grid Computational Tool (SGCT), which is built on methods developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The TEC sub-project BAs apply Smart Grid Multi-Criteria Analysis (SG-MCA) developed by the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with fuzzy logic. The B-TEC and TNY sub-project BAs are evaluated using new approaches developed by those project teams. JRC has adopted an approach similar to EPRI’s but tailored to the Malagrotta distribution grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

DOE NETL Gas Hydrate Project FWP 65213: Kinetic Parameters for the Exchange of Hydrate Formers (Final Report)

This report documents the research activities sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the gas hydrate project entitled, “Kinetic Parameters for the Exchange of Hydrate Formers.” This project started June 1, 2013 and concluded December 31, 2018, and comprised five budget periods, under FWP-65213. The overarching goal of this project was to gain an improved understanding of the dynamic processes of gas hydrate accumulations in geologic media by combining laboratory studies, numerical simulation, and analysis of shipboard infrared imaging of hydrate core samples. This project comprised four principal components: 1) fundamental laboratory investigations, 2) numerical simulator development and verification, 3) hydrate core characterization and analysis, and 4) applied laboratory and numerical investigations. Laboratory and field experiments have demonstrated the four core methodologies for producing natural gas hydrates from geologic formations: 1) depressurization, 2) thermal stimulation, 3) inhibitor injection, and 4) guest molecule exchange. Converting these methodologies into viable commercial technologies remains challenging, either from an economic or technical perspective. This project was largely focused with the technical challenges associated with the guest molecule exchange method, which is often referred to as gas swapping. Previous research by PNNL had shown that gas swapping with pure CO 2 was not feasible, as first originally thought, principally due to the formation of secondary hydrates, which clogged or reduced the effective permeability of the hydrate-bearing formation. This research was directed at discovering the potential for using mixtures of gases to affect the gas swapping methodology at commercial scales. The Ignik Sikumi Gas Hydrate Field Trial demonstrated the injection of a N 2 -CO 2 gas mixture into a natural gas hydrate bearing layer, and exchange behavior with the CH 4 hydrate former or guest molecules. The original concept behind the use of a N 2 -CO 2 was to maintain gas conditions at the reservoir state. Pure CO 2 would have existed under supercritical conditions, with an associated density closer to a liquid than gas. One of the key outcomes from this research project has been the discovery, through laboratory experiments and numerical simulation, that gas mixtures, especially those with components having different gas hydrate equilibria conditions provide a control option for the guest molecule exchange methodology. For example, the dissociation or formation of hydrate could be controlled by adjusting the composition of the gas mixture. This research project was dynamic in that the discoveries during each budget period would set the course of research during successive budget periods. Therefore, this report is arranged in chronological order progressing through the five budget periods of the project.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy Annual Report for FY 2014

This report presents a summary of the activities of the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) during Fiscal Year 2014 (FY2014). In FY2014, ARPA-E issued funding solicitations and selected projects for three new programs covering a broad array of energy technologies, including: 27 million dollars to develop next-generation power switching devices that improve energy efficiency in a wide range of applications; 30 million dollars for hybrid solar energy beyond current photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) technologies; and 33 million dollars for electrochemical technologies to enable low-cost distributed power generation. ARPA-E released three additional funding opportunities in FY2014 with project selections that were ultimately announced in FY2015. These programs include: 30 million dollars for localized heating and cooling devices to expand temperature ranges within buildings reducing energy consumption; 30 million dollars for low-cost, high-sensitivity systems to detect and measure methane emissions; and 30 million dollars for low-cost tools to aid in the future development of fusion power. ARPA-E also continued the use of a rolling open solicitation to quickly support innovative applied energy research that has the potential to lead to new focused programs. In addition to these new programs, ARPA-E hosted the fifth annual Energy Innovation Summit from February 24-26, 2014. The Summit brought together leaders from academia, government, and business to discuss the foremost energy issues, showcase the latest technology innovations, and cultivate relationships to help advance cutting-edge technologies to market. The event drew over 2,100 attendees and featured over 120 speakers and keynote addresses. At the Summit, ARPA-E announced at least 24 ARPA-E project teams that have formed new companies and more than 16 ARPA-E projects, which have partnered with other government agencies for further development. Additionally, 22 ARPA-E projects have attracted more than 625 million dollars in private-sector follow-on funding after ARPA-E’s investment of approximately 95 million dollars. Lastly, ARPA-E continued to focus on providing awardees with practical training and critical business information as part of the Agency’s Technology-to-Market program. This support equips projects with a clear understanding of market needs to guide technical development and help projects succeed the marketplace.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Annual Scientific Focus Area Report for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Project: Phase II

The project's long-term goal is to assert and maintain an international scientific leadership position in the development of Earth system models that address the grand challenge of actionable predictions of Earth system variability and change, with an emphasis on the most critical scientific questions facing the nation and DOE. The grand challenge will be addressed by overcoming three major limitations: Pushing the high-resolution frontier of Earth system modeling through a combination of strategic model development and computational advances targeting exascale computers and beyond. Bridging the gap in scales and processes by developing a new class of models that couple the natural, managed, and man-made systems across scales to address energy sector vulnerability to variability and change. The project will achieve its goal through four intersecting project elements: A series of prediction and simulation experiments addressing scientific questions and mission needs; A well-documented and tested, continuously advancing, evolving, and improving system of model codes that comprise the E3SM Earth system model; The ability to use effectively leading (and “bleeding”) edge computational facilities soon after their deployment at DOE national laboratories; and An infrastructure to support code development, hypothesis testing, simulation execution, and analysis of results. To achieve the Grand Challenge of actionable Earth system predictions to address the most critical scientific questions facing our nation and DOE, the E3SM project defined its strategy in a fifteen-year roadmap with four intersecting project elements: A series of prediction and simulation experiments addressing scientific questions and mission needs; A well-documented and tested, continuously advancing, evolving, and improving system of model codes that comprise the E3SM Earth system model ; The ability to use effectively leading (and “bleeding”) edge computational facilities soon after their deployment at DOE national laboratories; and An infrastructure to support code development, hypothesis testing, simulation execution, and analysis of results. Figure 1 depicts the E3SM Project Roadmap, showing the relationships among the first three major project elements: the simulations, the modeling system to perform those simulations, and the machines on which they will be executed. Unlike the other three elements that have distinct but overlapping phases, the fourth element, the infrastructure, will evolve continuously based on the requirements imposed by project needs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparing Offshore Wind Energy Procurement and Project Revenue Sources Across U.S. States

The pace of offshore wind energy procurement in the United States has rapidly accelerated in recent years. U.S. states along the Atlantic Coast have set procurement goals for offshore wind energy to meet renewable portfolio standards and serve state policy needs. By the end of 2019, projects with a total capacity of 6.4 gigawatts (GW) had established long-term contracts (or equivalent regulatory requirements) with utility off-takers. The prices established in these contracts since 2017 have been well below expectations from many industry observers, prompting stakeholders to compare price levels across U.S. states and globally. However, comparing procurement prices across projects and jurisdictions is often challenging because of differences in project parameters, support regimes, supply chains, and the applicable tax and regulatory environment. These characteristics provide critical context for understanding project revenue streams, delivery obligations, and risk allocation, which need to be accounted for when comparing across different projects. In combination, variation in these characteristics between projects results in measurable differences in project costs and revenues and, consequently, in different offer bids. In this report, we systematically analyze offshore wind energy support regimes across U.S. states. Because offshore wind energy procurement prices from U.S. projects are often compared not only among states but also with European tenders, this report also provides an overview of support regimes and taxonomy used in European offshore wind markets. The content of this report was derived from a literature review, primarily regulatory filings and summary reports, and 16 interviews with leading industry experts from state agencies, energy sector consultancies, and law practices. The comparison between U.S. states focuses on several dimensions, including statutory authority, solicitation procedures, procurement goals and awards, and the structuring of physical and transactional delivery of energy services.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energy Storage Financing: Project and Portfolio Valuation

This study investigates the issues and challenges surrounding energy storage project and portfolio valuation and provide insights in to improving visibility into the process for developers, capital providers, and customers so they can make more informed choices. Energy storage project valuation methodology is typical of power sector projects through evaluating various revenue and cost assumptions in a project economic model. The difference is that energy storage projects have many more design and operational variables to incorporate, and the governing market rules that control these variables are still evolving. This makes project valuation for energy storage more difficult. As the number of operating projects grow, portfolios of these projects are being developed, garnering the interest of larger investors. Valuation challenges of these portfolios can be even more challenging as market role and geographical diversity can actually exacerbate the variability, not mitigate it. By proposing additional visibility of key factors and drivers for industry participants, the US DOE can reduce investment risk, expanding both the number and types of investors, plus helping emerging energy storage technology into sustained commercialization.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

DARHT : Enduring Lessons from a Technical Project in a National Laboratory Context [Slides]

The Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is the world’s first flash x-ray facility able to take multiple high-resolution radiographs of the interior features of fast-moving dense objects during a single experiment. DARHT’s radiography and complimentary diagnostics makes it an important diagnostic tool in support of the US Department of Energy’s (DOE)/National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)’s stewardship of the US nuclear deterrent. The project to construct DARHT ran from 1988 through 2003. Initial Operating Capability along a single axis began in 1999. A technical issue delayed Critical Decision 4 for the full dual-axis capability until 2008. DARHT was characterized by several directed changes resulting from an environmental impact study, changes to the global security context resulting from the end of underground nuclear testing, and rapid evolution of applicable technology. Conventional building and lab-space construction were part of the project, but the project was dominated by Special Facility Equipment that, together with the mission to support the nuclear weapons program, required the project to be completed by national laboratories. Although the project pre-dated implementation of DOE Order 413.3, several important lessons for national laboratory projects remain applicable today and will be discussed here, including projects appropriate for the national laboratory environment, scope stability, risk acceptance and mitigation, communication, and collaboration. Finally, considerations for DOE contractor project managers are offered based upon the DARHT experience.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Systematic Framework for Projecting the Future Cost of Offshore Wind Energy

Offshore wind costs are expected to decline rapidly in the short and medium term future as the industry grows and gains experience in manufacturing, installing, and operating commercial scale projects. Estimating the future costs of offshore wind energy is critical for evaluating the technology's economic performance, how it can fit into a broader clean energy economy, and how R&D investment can be allocated to advance the technology. We present a newly developed approach for forecasting these costs which focuses on an empirically-derived learning rate for capital costs and prescribed cost and performance improvements for operational costs and capacity factor. We establish baseline costs for a series of reference fixed-bottom and floating projects in 2021 and project cost trajectories to 2035, presenting both an average cost trajectory as well as describing the range of potential future costs associated with site-specific cost variations and uncertainty in the estimate of the learning rate. We also conduct sensitivity analyses showing the impact of different global deployments by 2035 and variations in the prescribed operational costs and capacity factors. The results show that fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind capital costs could decrease to around $\$$2,400/kW and $\$$3,300/kW by 2035, respectively, with ranges of $\$$2,100/kW - $\$$2,750/kW for fixed-bottom projects and $\$$2,850/kW - $\$$5,500/kW for floating projects. The levelized cost of energy of fixed-bottom and floating wind projects could decrease to $\$$53.1/MWh and $\$$63.9/MWh by 2035, with ranges of $\$$48.4/MWh - $\$$59.7/MWh for fixed-bottom projects and $\$$46.5/MWh - $\$$99.9/MWh for floating projects. By presenting the uncertainty associated with the forecast we provide a transparent description of the spectrum of potential cost trajectories for offshore wind.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of Low-Cost, High-Performance, Easy-To-Apply, Non-Flammable, Inorganic Phase Change Material (PCM) Technology (Project Final Report)

This report describes a 45-months long research program focused on the development of novel, easy-to-apply, non-flammable, and high-performance inorganic phase change materials (PCMs) for building and industrial applications. The University of Massachusetts Lowell (UML) formed a world-class team consisting of researchers form InsolCorp (only N. American manufacturer of inorganic PCM systems for building applications), and a group of industrial advisors, to develop a universal/multipurpose, simple-to-manufacture and cost-effective PCM technology. The project team expects that the results of this work will spur in the future the adoption of thermal storage materials – a key building energy saving technology as identified by DOE BTO – for a variety of building envelope applications. The main goal of this project was to demonstrate a suite of low-cost, multipurpose, and durable inorganic PCM formulations with phase transition temperatures encompassing typical building applications (between +5 o C and +55 o C). The first objective was to design, fabricate, and experimentally validate a performance of inexpensive, durable, highly efficient, non-flammable, and easy to manufacture PCMs. To allow a variety of building applications, the project team focused on formulations that exhibit repeatable phase transitions between +5 o C and +55 o C. To follow the DOE BTO cost efficiency target without compromising thermal performance, our work was based on inorganic compounds (mostly salt hydrates) and their blends, which represent a fraction of the cost of most of organic PCMs with about twice as high density as well as significantly higher thermal conductivity and phase change enthalpy. The second objective was to develop easy-to-manufacture and -install packaging/encapsulation designs that are 1) a superior barrier to current state-of-the-art macro-packaging, which significantly reduces the risk of loss of hydration water and PCM leak, and 2) optimal in enhancing the heat exchange rates with the surroundings and within the PCM core to ensure complete charging/discharging of the entire PCM within the product. Finally, the project’s intend was to scale-up the fabrication process to demonstrate installation on system-scale applications, and to validate the performance under field conditions. This work aimed at developing low-cost, high-energy storage, and reliable latent heat storage technology for building applications. This development was realized by formulating and integrating the following two technology components: 1) inorganic salt hydrate based PCMs that have high latent enthalpies and are low-cost and durable, and 2) PCM encapsulation (packaging) technology that maximizes PCM concentration and enhances heat transport characteristics in the product and with the external environment/materials. High thermal storage capacity, low cost and fire resistance are key to the building market entry for PCM technology. Therefore, the project’s focus was on salt-hydrate-based formulations which satisfy all these criteria. Packaging and/or encapsulation of PCM is a key processing step. The project team recognized that a low-cost and simple-to-manufacture salt hydrate-based PCM technology holds the best chance to be successful in the building construction market, a market which is traditionally extremely sensitive to cost and where commodity thermal insulations are the benchmark for envelope-related energy saving measures. That is why, in this project, the main intention was to minimize the production cost and maximize the product energy storage density without sacrificing the PCM performance. It was achieved through: 1. Minimizing the non-PCM components (plastics, additives, packaging/encapsulation materials, etc.) because they are significantly more expensive than salt hydrates, 2. Using highly thermally conductive and lightweight PCM carrier (packaging material) to facilitate more complete phase cycling, and 3. Optimizing the thickness and minimizing air spaces in product design (such as in pouched PCM). For this purpose, our approach was to enable an easy system design, including selection of the PCM operating temperatures, optimizing the necessary heat storage capacity (by stacking together several layers of PCM products), and if needed, a synchronized usage of PCM products of different temperatures. A specially designed, robust, highly thermally conducting and highly impermeable packaging (to retain salt hydrate water during phase transition cycles) was designed and tested to increase the overall system thermal performance and durability. All PCM products developed during this project were tested in both lab scale and in full scale field conditions. It is expected that, after further developments and commercialization, the developed PCM technologies may be also applied in space conditioning, energy storage technologies, and heat transfer applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

CarbonSAFE Phase II: Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County, Alabama (Project OASIS), Milestone M3 - Site Specific Drilling Report

The Phase II Storage Complex Feasibility project, entitled "Optimizing Alabama's CO 2 Storage in Shelby County, Alabama (Project OASIS)," is a part of the DOE/NETL's CarbonSAFE initiative. The Project is managed by the Southern States Energy Board (SSEB), and includes participation from Advanced Resources International, Inc. (ARI), Crescent Resource Innovation, Southern Company, Alabama A&M University, Auburn University, and Oklahoma State University. Project OASIS is working to establish the foundation for a commercial-scale geologic storage complex for CO 2 captured from Plant Gaston (home of the National Carbon Capture Center) and surrounding industrial sources of CO 2 located in Shelby County, Alabama. The Project objectives are: • Demonstrate that the subsurface saline formations at the storage complex can store commercial volumes of CO 2 safely and permanently. • Develop a comprehensive Community Benefits Plan. • Develop the infrastructure framework for a CO 2 storage hub. • Develop a rigorous risk registry and to conduct a comprehensive risk assessment. • Develop a monitoring plan. • Develop a comprehensive site characterization plan to support an Underground Injection Control Class VI Permit in a future Phase III program. • Evaluate the commercial viability of the project. Project OASIS is about 30 miles southeast of Birmingham, Alabama within a geologic province called the Valley and Ridge (Figure 1.1). The Valley and Ridge Province comprises a sequence of Paleozoic carbonate and clastic rocks that underwent structural deformation during the Alleghanian Orogeny. Storage prospects occur in relatively flat lying structural panels located between thrust faults. Available geologic studies related to hydrocarbon exploration suggest that Cambro-Ordovician carbonates and Cambrian clastic units offer multiple potential storage intervals, and that regional confining systems are present, such as the tectonically thickened Floyd-Parkwood Shale. The surface property is owned by a timber and land stewardship company, The Westervelt Company, Inc., who worked with the Project Team to select and prepare adequate sites for geologic assessment. The purpose of drilling the Westover Stratigraphic Test Well #2 was to collect geologic data to model the feasibility of commercial scale CO 2 injection and storage. This includes geological and geophysical evaluations, reservoir engineering analyses, and risk assessments.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Final DOE-ASR Report for the Project “Using LASSO to bridge the gap between model and observations and to learn about atmospheric convection”

Atmospheric convection spans a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and involves complex interactions with the surrounding dynamic and thermodynamic environment, particularly over tropical continental regions. These processes remain a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate models, including persistent biases in the diurnal cycle of convective precipitation that directly affect estimates of climate sensitivity. Addressing these challenges requires the combined use of high-resolution observations and cloud-resolving modeling frameworks. In this context, the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program’s Large-Eddy Simulation ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) activity provides a powerful platform that pairs comprehensive observations with numerical simulations to enable process-level understanding of atmospheric convection. Within this context, this Research and Development Partnership Pilot (RDPP) project was designed to initiate and expand DOE ARM/ASR research capacity at minority-serving institutions, while advancing scientific understanding of convective processes over the Amazon rainforest. Consistent with the RDPP mission, the project emphasized partnership development, training, and workforce capacity building alongside exploratory research activities. On the scientific side, the project produced two peer-reviewed journal articles, and one manuscript currently under review (see list in section 3.1). Together, these studies combine long-term ARM observations and cloud-resolving and convection-permitting modeling to investigate the environmental controls on the shallow-to-deep convective transition during the Amazon wet season. The results demonstrate the central role of early-day moisture preconditioning and large-scale dynamical forcing in regulating isolated deep convection, provide mechanistic insight into convective evolution, and establish physically informed modeling frameworks for future sensitivity experiments. These scientific outcomes are described in sections 2.1 to 2.3 and were disseminated in 8 conference presentations (see section 3.2) and 5 invited talks (see section 3.3), reflecting broad engagement with our community. Equally important, the project achieved its RDPP capacity-building objectives (see section 2.4). A sustained research partnership was established among the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC), Morgan State University (MSU), and Howard University (HU), and extended to include collaboration with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The project organized multiple multi-day training events focused on ARM data, LASSO simulations, and quantitative analysis methods, directly engaging students, postdoctoral researchers, and faculty across institutions. These activities broadened participation in ASR research and led to independent adoption of LASSO workflows by students beyond the immediate project team. Finally, the project successfully positioned the participating institutions to pursue future DOE research. Preliminary scientific results, coupled with strengthened partnerships and technical capacity, enabled the submission of follow-on proposals to DOE ASR funding opportunities. In this way, the project fulfilled the RDPP goal of seeding durable research capacity and laying the foundation for larger-scale, sustained engagement with DOE ARM and ASR programs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Empirical Estimation of the Energy Impacts of Projects Installed through Residential Property Assessed Clean Energy Financing Programs in California

We examine the energy use impacts of energy efficiency and solar PV projects financed by residential property assessed clean energy (R-PACE) programs in California. We leverage household-level interval meter data to apply normalized metered energy consumption (NMEC) methods at significant scale—more than 25,000 electric meters and more than 15,000 gas meters. We develop a comparison group to account for non-project-related changes in usage. The projects include homes that replaced existing HVAC equipment with higher-efficiency units and homes that installed central heating or air conditioning equipment for the first time. We have limited information on pre-project household equipment stock so we develop a method to infer new installations. We find that projects that installed energy efficiency technologies reduce electricity consumption by approximately 3% and gas consumption by approximately 3.5% on average. When we remove homes that installed new cooling and heating equipment for the first time, savings rise to approximately 5% for electricity and approximately 6% for gas. Given the California climate and the results of an existing study of similar California projects, these results are in line with expectations. Solar PV projects produce electricity that offsets approximately 69% of household electricity consumption on average. We estimate that California R-PACE projects installed through the end of 2019 produce annual reductions in grid-tied electricity consumption of 506 GWh (equivalent to the electricity consumption of approximately 74,000 California households) and gas consumption reductions of 2 million therms (equivalent to the gas consumption of approximately 4700 California households) in a typical weather year.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗