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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of All Solid Cancer Mortality and Incidence Dose-Response in the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors, 1958–2009

Recent analysis of all solid cancer incidence (1958–2009) in the Life Span Study (LSS) revealed evidence of upward curvature in the radiation dose response among males but not females. Upward curvature in sex-averaged excess relative risk (ERR) for all solid cancer mortality (1950–2003) was also observed in the 0–2 Gy dose range. As reasons for non-linearity in the LSS are not completely understood, we conducted dose response analyses for all solid cancer mortality and incidence applying similar methods (1958–2009 follow-up, DS02R1 doses, including subjects notin-city (NIC) at the time of the bombing) and statistical models. Incident cancers were ascertained from Hiroshima and Nagasaki cancer registries, while cause of death was ascertained from death certificates over entire Japan. The study included 105,444 LSS subjects who were alive and not known to have cancer before Jan 1, 1958 (80,205 with dose estimates and 25,239 NIC subjects). Between 1958 and 2009, there were 3.1 million person-years (PY) and 22,538 solid cancers for incidence analysis and 3.8 million PY and 15,419 solid cancer deaths for mortality analysis. We fitted sex-specific ERR models adjusted for smoking to both types of data. Over the entire range of doses, solid cancer mortality dose response exhibited a borderline significant upward curvature among males (P=0.062) and significant upward curvature among females (P=0.010); for solid cancer incidence, as before, we found a significant upward curvature among males (P=0.001) but not among females (P=0.624). The sex difference in magnitude of dose response curvature was statistically significant for cancer incidence (P=0.017) but not for cancer mortality (P=0.781). The results of analyses in the 0–2 Gy range and restricted lower dose ranges generally supported inferences made about the sex-specific dose response shape over the entire range of doses for each outcome. Patterns of sex-specific curvature by calendar period (1958–1987 vs 1988–2009) and age at exposure (0–19 vs 20–83) varied between mortality and incidence data, particularly among females, although for each outcome there was an indication of curvature among 0–19 year old male survivors in both calendar periods and among 0–19 year old female survivors in the recent period. Collectively, our findings indicate that the upward curvature in all solid cancer dose response in the LSS is neither specific to males nor to incidence data; it appears to depend on composition of case series and age at exposure or time. Further follow-up and site-specific analyses of cancer mortality and incidence will be important to confirm the emerging trend in dose response curvature among young survivors and unveil the contributing factors and sites.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
NASA NTRS1975

The global characteristics of atmospheric emissions in the lower thermosphere and their aeronomic implications

The green line (555.7 nm) of atomic oxygen and the Herzberg bands of molecular oxygen (measured between 250 and 280 nm) as observed from the Ogo 4 airglow photometer from August 1967 through January 1968 are discussed in terms of their spatial and temporal distributions and their relation to the atomic oxygen content in the lower thermosphere. Daily maps of the distribution of emissions show considerable structure (cells, patches, and bands) with appreciable changes from day to day. When data are averaged over periods of several days in length, the resulting patterns have only occasional tendencies to follow geomagnetic parallels. The seasonal variation is characterized by maxima in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in October, the Northern Hemisphere having substantially higher emission rates. These maxima tend to move toward the poles, leaving very low values of emission at low latitudes in December and January. Noting the similarity of the atomic oxygen profiles in the lower thermosphere to the profile of a Chapman distribution, formulae are derived relating the vertical column emission rates of the green line and the Herzberg bands to the atomic oxygen peak density.

Reed, E. I.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Effects of electric fields and other processes upon the nighttime high-latitude F layer

The dynamics of the nighttime high-latitude F region is studied with special emphasis on the formation of the electron-density trough region which lies equatorward of the auroral oval. It is found that the absence of photoionization together with ordinary ionic recombination and slow plasma convection velocity can give a deep trough over a period of many hours. However, the normal global pattern of electric fields has regions of plasma convection sufficiently rapid to affect the rate of O(+) + N2 reactions and to speed the rate of ionospheric decay. In addition, the escape of thermal plasma via the polar winds as well as N2 vibrational excitation and enhanced N2 densities act to deplete the ionosphere. In combination, these destructive processes can readily account for the great variety of troughs found by experimentation. Thus, it appears that there is no single cause for the observed troughs, but that at various times, different processes act together to create density depressions of substantial magnitude.

Schunk, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Annual cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation, and Southern Oscillation in global precipitation

Using 80 years (1901-1980) of global station rainfall data, the spatial and temporal variations in global precipitation associated with the annual cycle (AC), the tropospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and southern oscillation (SO, defined as the background 3- to 7-year fluctuation in which the El Nino events are embedded) were investigated. It was found that the dominant global precipitation pattern fluctuates irregularly, with 2- to 5-year periods associated with the SO. The temporal variation shows, in addition to the SO time scale, a distinct QBO signal. The best correlation occurred during the El Nino SO, with an apparent phase locking between the QBO and SO. The role of the possible influence of the AC and other factors involved in the QBO interaction is discussed.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Cosmic Microwave Background Polarization and Inflation

Measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) offer a means to explore the universe at a very early epoch. Specifically, if the universe went through a brief period of exponential expansion called inflation as current data suggest, gravitational waves from this period would polarize the CMB in a specific pattern. At GSFC, we are currently working towards two experiments that work in concert to measure this polarization pattern in search of evidence for inflation. The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) will measure the polarization at frequencies between 40 and 150 GHz from the Atacama Desert in Chile. The Primordial Inflation Polarization Explorer (PIPER) is a balloon-borne experiment that will make similar measurements at frequencies between 200 and 600 GHz.

Chuss, David T.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Can We Infer Ocean Dynamics from Altimeter Wavenumber Spectra?

The wavenumber spectra of sea surface height (SSH) and kinetic energy (KE) have been used to infer the dynamics of the ocean. When quasi-geostrophic dynamics (QG) or surface quasi-geostrophic (SQG) turbulence dominate and an inertial subrange exists, a steep SSH wavenumber spectrum is expected with k-5 for QG turbulence and a flatter k-11/3 for SQG turbulence. However, inspection of the spectral slopes in the mesoscale band of 70 to 250 km shows that the altimeter wavenumber slopes typically are much flatter than the QG or SQG predictions over most of the ocean. Comparison of the altimeter wavenumber spectra with the spectra estimated from the output of an eddy resolving global ocean circulation model (the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM, at 1/25 resolution), which is forced by high frequency winds and includes the astronomical forcing of the sun and the moon, suggests that the flatter slopes of the altimeter may arise from three possible sources, the presence of internal waves, the lack of an inertial subrange in the 70 to 250 km band and noise or submesoscales at small scales. When the wavenumber spectra of SSH and KE are estimated near the internal tide generating regions, the resulting spectra are much flatter than the expectations of QG or SQG theory. If the height and velocity variability are separated into low frequency (periods greater than 2 days) and high frequency (periods less than a day), then a different pattern emerges with a relatively flat wavenumber spectrum at high frequency and a steeper wavenumber spectrum at low frequency. The stationary internal tides can be removed from the altimeter spectrum, which steepens the spectral slopes in the energetic internal wave regions. Away from generating regions where the internal waves

Richman, James↗
NASA NTRS2019

Changes in Vegetation Cover of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Estimated from MODIS Greenness Trends, 2000 to 2018

The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) was established in 1980 and covers 19 million acres (77,000 km2) in northeast Alaska. Wildlife habitats in the ANWR are vulnerable to long-lasting effects from any disturbance, in part because short growing seasons in the arctic provide limited time for species to recover. Trends and transitions in the growing season MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series at 250-m resolution were analyzed for the period from 2000 to 2018 to understand recent patterns of vegetation change in all ecoregions of the ANWR. Statistical analysis of changes in each MODIS pixel NDVI time series was conducted using the "Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend" method (BFAST) to map regional change rates. Results suggested that most negative NDVI anomalies in the tundra-covered river drainages of the Brooks Range Mountains and coastal plain have been associated with early spring thawing and elevated levels of surface moisture in low elevation drainages of the northern ANWR ecoregions.

Arctic National Wildlife Refuge↗
NASA NTRS2019

Changes in Vegetation Cover of Yukon River Drainages in Interior Alaska Estimated from MODIS Greenness Trends, 2000 to 2018

Trends and transitions in the growing season MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series at 250-m resolution were analyzed for the period from 2000 to 2018 to understand recent patterns of vegetation change in ecosystems of the Yukon River basin in interior Alaska. Statistical analysis of changes in the NDVI time series was conducted using the "Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend" method (BFAST). This structural change analysis indicated that NDVI breakpoints and negative 18-yr trends in vegetation greenness over the years since 2000 could be explained in large part by the impacts of severe wildfires, commonly affecting shrubland and forested ecosystems at relatively low elevations (< 300 m).

Potter, Christopher↗
NASA NTRS2020

Forecasting Global Fire Emissions on Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Time Scales

Fire emissions of gases and aerosols alter atmospheric composition and have substantial impacts on climate, ecosystem function, and human health. Warming climate and human expansion in fire‐prone landscapes exacerbate fire impacts and call for more effective management tools. Here we developed a global fire forecasting system that predicts monthly emissions using past fire data and climate variables for lead times of 1 to 6 months. Using monthly fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) as the prediction target, we fit a statistical time series model, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with eXogenous variables (ARIMAX), in over 1,300 different fire regions. Optimized parameters were then used to forecast future emissions. The forecast system took into account information about region‐specific seasonality, long‐term trends, recent fire observations, and climate drivers representing both large‐scale climate variability and local fire weather. We cross‐validated the forecast skill of the system with different combinations of predictors and forecast lead times. The reference model, which combined endogenous and exogenous predictors with a 1 month forecast lead time, explained 52% of the variability in the global fire emissions anomaly, considerably exceeding the performance of a reference model that assumed persistent emissions during the forecast period. The system also successfully resolved detailed spatial patterns of fire emissions anomalies in regions with significant fire activity. This study bridges the gap between the efforts of near‐real‐time fire forecasts and seasonal fire outlooks and represents a step toward establishing an operational global fire, smoke, and carbon cycle forecasting system.

vapor pressure↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Springtime SEA Air Is Consistently Both Smoky and Humid, but This Relationship (and Its Radiative Effects) Varies Spatially and Seasonally

The atmosphere over the southeast Atlantic Ocean (SEA) sees a consistent springtime biomass burning (BB) smoke from widespread agricultural fires on the African continent. This smoke layer is initially lofted high in a continental mixed layer (~5-6km) and is then transported westward in the free troposphere, where it overlies and ultimately mixes into the SEA stratocumulus-topped oceanic boundary layer. Coincident with this smoke is an elevated humidity signal which is present from the time a given airmass is over the continental source region. ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) was a NASA Earth Venture Suborbital mission with the goal of measuring aerosol, cloud, and atmospheric properties over this region during three deployments in September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018. A previous study discussed the spatial characteristics of the water vapor-BB plume observations in the September 2016 flight data and their degree of agreement with several atmospheric reanalyses and models. In the present work, we first discuss atmospheric chemistry, structure, and aerosol results from all three ORACLES deployments to place these results in a broader seasonal context. Despite the differing locations and season of each deployment, we show that there continues to be good agreement between the airborne ORACLES dataset and large-scale reanalyses, specifically the ECMWF ERA5 and CAMS reanalyses. Other reanalyses (specifically NASA's MERRA-2) preserved the observed correlation between meteorology and biomass burning conditions, but, as was seen for 2016, was frequently displaced spatially relative to the observations. The CAMS reanalysis performs better with water vapor than with CO. Results comparing CAMS column AOD to the field measurements show slight overestimates, consistent with previous analysis, but the good relationship observed between AOD and inlet-based aerosol extinction demonstrates this metric's utility to broader studies. The good ERA5/CAMS/ORACLES agreement allows us to next examine the multi-year seasonal patterns and trends beyond the three ORACLES deployment periods. Looking at seven years of reanalysis data for the BB season, we find distinct variations between each month/deployment in terms of vertical smoke distribution and correlation to atmospheric specific humidity, due to changing conditions through the BB season. Using k-means clustering of these climatological reanalysis, we identify six canonical atmospheric profile types of varying total atmospheric humidity and vertical structure and describe their changing incidence spatially and throughout the season, and six analogous profile types for carbon monoxide, allowing us to characterize the atmospheric structure of both vapor and BB over time throughout the SEA region. This classification will allow for a more complete analysis of the broader radiative and dynamical effects of humid aerosols overlying stratocumulus clouds.

Kristina Marie Myers Pistone↗
DOE OSTI2019

Energy Spread Measurements for 400 MeV Linac Beam at Fermilab Booster Using a Laser Notcher System

To mitigate 8 GeV beam losses at extraction in the Fermilab Booster synchrotron, a LASER chopper system for multiturn injection that produces a beam free gap, aka “notch” in the LINAC beam pulse at 750 keV is developed. These notches in the LINAC pulse are spaced with the 400 MeV injection revolution period of the Booster. Recently, a dedicated notching pattern that keeps a single 201 MHz LINAC bunch in the middle of a notch is developed to measure the beam energy spread by studying the time evolution of this bunch in the Booster. A method complementary to this has also been realized by injecting <2 Booster turn beam and studying the time evolution of the multiple 201 MHz LINAC bunches. In this paper we present the general principle of the method and results from our measurements.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS1978

Heat transfer characteristics for inline and staggered arrays of circular jets with crossflow of spent air

Heat transfer characteristics were measured for two dimensional arrays of jets impinging on a surface parallel to the jet orifice plate. The impinging flow was constrained to exit in a single direction along the channel formed by the jet plate and the heat transfer surface. Both mean Nusselt numbers and streamwise Nusselt number profiles are presented as a function of Reynolds number and geometric parameters. These are the streamwise and transverse hole spacings ranging from 5 to 10 and 4 to 8 jet orifice diameters, respectively; the channel height ranging from 1 to 6 diameters; and the hole pattern which includes both inline and staggered arrays. The results show that significant periodic variations occur in the streamwise Nusselt number profiles, persisting downstream for at least ten rows of jet holes. Channel height can have a significant effect on the chordwise profiles, smoothed across the periodic variations. For the smaller channel heights, Nusselt numbers first decrease and then increase downstream. Where significant differences exist, inline hole patterns provide better heat transfer than staggered ones. These and other effects of the geometric parameters are presented and discussed.

Metzger, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Patterns in Crew-Initiated Photography of Earth from ISS - Is Earth Observation a Salutogenic Experience?

To provide for the well-being of crewmembers on future exploration missions, understanding how space station crewmembers handle the inherently stressful isolation and confinement during long-duration missions is important. A recent retrospective survey of previously flown astronauts found that the most commonly reported psychologically enriching aspects of spaceflight had to do with their Perceptions of Earth. Crewmembers onboard the International Space Station (ISS) photograph Earth through the station windows. Some of these photographs are in response to requests from scientists on the ground through the Crew Earth Observations (CEO) payload. Other photographs taken by crewmembers have not been in response to these formal requests. The automatically recorded data from the camera provides a dataset that can be used to test hypotheses about factors correlated with self-initiated crewmember photography. The present study used objective in-flight data to corroborate the previous questionnaire finding and to further investigate the nature of voluntary Earth-Observation activity. We examined the distribution of photographs with respect to time, crew, and subject matter. We also determined whether the frequency fluctuated in conjunction with major mission events such as vehicle dockings, and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs, or spacewalks), relative to the norm for the relevant crew. We also examined the influence of geographic and temporal patterns on frequency of Earth photography activities. We tested the hypotheses that there would be peak photography intensity over locations of personal interest, and on weekends. From December 2001 through October 2005 (Expeditions 4-11) crewmembers took 144,180 photographs of Earth with time and date automatically recorded by the camera. Of the time-stamped photographs, 84.5% were crew-initiated, and not in response to CEO requests. Preliminary analysis indicated some phasing in patterns of photography during the course of a mission (significant quadratic and trimodal models). There was also a small but significant increase in photo activity on the weekends. In contrast, fewer photos were taken during major station events and for a period of time immediately preceding those events. Data on photography patterns presented here represent a relatively objective group-level measure of Earth observing activities on ISS. Crew Earth Observations offers a self-initiated positive activity that may be important in salutogenesis (maintenance of well-being) of astronauts on long-duration missions. Consideration should be given to developing substitute activities for crewmembers in future exploration missions where there will not be the opportunity to look at Earth, such as on long-duration transits to Mars.

Robinson, Julie A.↗
DOE OSTI2015

REPEATED, DELAYED TORQUE VARIATIONS FOLLOWING X-RAY FLUX ENHANCEMENTS IN THE MAGNETAR 1E 1048.1–5937

We report on two years of flux and spin evolution monitoring of 1E 1048.1–5937, a 6.5 s X-ray pulsar identified as a magnetar. Using Swift X-Ray Telescope data, we observed an X-ray outburst consisting of an increase in the persistent 1-10 keV flux by a factor of 6.3 ± 0.2, beginning on 2011 December 31 (MJD 55926). Following a delay of ∼100 days, the magnetar entered a period of large torque variability, with ν-dot reaching a factor of 4.55 ± 0.05 times the nominal value, before decaying in an oscillatory manner over a timescale of months. We show by comparing to previous outbursts from the source that this pattern of behavior may repeat itself with a quasi-period of ∼1800 days. We compare this phenomenology to periodic torque variations in radio pulsars, finding some similarities that suggest a magnetospheric origin for the behavior of 1E 1048.1–5937.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2011

Climate Teleconnections and Recent Patterns of Human and Animal Disease Outbreaks

Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya) in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Extremes in rainfall (drought and flood) during the period 2004 - 2009 have privileged different disease vectors. Chikungunya outbreaks occurred during the severe drought from late 2004 to 2006 over coastal East Africa and the western Indian Ocean islands and in the later years India and Southeast Asia. The chikungunya pandemic was caused by a Central/East African genotype that appears to have been precipitated and then enhanced by global-scale and regional climate conditions in these regions. Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred following excessive rainfall period from late 2006 to late 2007 in East Africa and Sudan, and then in 2008 - 2009 in Southern Africa. The shift in the outbreak patterns of Rift Valley fever from East Africa to Southern Africa followed a transition of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena from the warm El Nino phase (2006-2007) to the cold La Nina phase (2007-2009) and associated patterns of variability in the greater Indian Ocean basin that result in the displacement of the centres of above normal rainfall from Eastern to Southern Africa. Understanding the background patterns of climate variability both at global and regional scale and their impacts on ecological drivers of vector borne-diseases is critical in long-range planning of appropriate response and mitigation measures.

Anyamba, Assaf↗
DOE OSTI2016

High‐frequency daily temperature variability in China and its relationship to large‐scale circulation

ABSTRACT Two measures of intra‐seasonal variability, indicated respectively by standard deviations ( SD ) and day‐to‐day ( DTD ) fluctuations denoted by absolute differences between adjacent 2‐day periods, as well as their relationships with large‐scale circulation patterns were investigated in China during 1962–2008 on the basis of homogenized daily temperature records from 549 local stations and reanalysis data. Our results show that both the SD and DTD of daily minimum temperatures ( T min ) in summer as well as the minimum and maximum temperatures in winter have been decreasing, while the daily maximum temperature ( T max ) variability in summer is fluctuating more, especially over southern China. In summer, an attribution analysis indicates that the intensity of the Western Pacific Subtropical High ( WPSH ) and high‐level East Asian Subtropical Jet stream ( EASJ ) are positively correlated with both SD and DTD , but the correlation coefficients are generally greater with the SD than with the DTD of the daily maximum temperature, T max . In contrast, the location of the EASJ shows the opposite correlation pattern, with intensity regarding the correlation with both SD and DTD . In winter, the Arctic Oscillation ( AO ) is negatively correlated with both the SD and DTD of the daily minimum temperature, but its intra‐seasonal variability exhibits good agreement with the SD of the T min . The Siberian High acts differently with respect to the SD and DTD of the T min , demonstrating a regionally consistent positive correlation with the SD . Overall, the large‐scale circulation can well explain the intra‐seasonal SD, but DTD fluctuations may be more local and impacted by local conditions, such as changes in the temperature itself, the land surface, and so on.

Wu, Fu‐Ting↗
NASA NTRS1985

Neutral parcel transport in the high latitude F-region

The NCAR Thermospheric General Circulation model (TGCM) is used together with a 'post-processor' diagnostic package to analyze neutral parcel transport in the high latitude F-region. The diagnostic package includes a feature that enables individual parcels of neutral gas to be tracked by interpolation through the TGCM model grid in time and space. Various trajectories have been calculated to illustrate the predicted loci of neutral gas parcels that encounter large ion-drag forces due to the ionospheric mapping of the magnetospheric convection electric field. The trajectories, calculated for a 'steady state', diurnally reproducible run of the TGCM, show that the cusp region plays an exceedingly important regulatory or nozzle role for the overall flow pattern and has great influence on the energization of the F-region polar cap. In particular, it is found that the trajectory of a 'typical' F-region neutral gas parcel passes through the cusp region at least once and sometimes twice in a 24 hour period due to the convergent geometry of the ion convection pattern.

Killeen, T. L.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The problem of controlling the directivity of low directivity antennas on spacecraft in flight

Interests exist in the creation of antennas allowing adjustment of the radiation pattern and directivity in flight without using complex switching and matching circuits. Results are presented of certain experimental tests performed with log-periodic conical helical antennas to determine the possibilities of regulation of their radiation patterns without changing the structure of the current-carrying elements, supply connections, etc.

Mashkov, V. I.↗