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At least 523 records · Page 29

Modeling Radiolysis and Chemical Reactions during Dry Storage of Aluminum-clad Spent Nuclear Fuel

After aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) is removed from the reactor, it is initially stored in spent fuel pools, which are specially designed water-filled basins that provide temporary cooling to reduce the temperature of the fuel assemblies and provide radiation shielding. ASNF continues to generate heat due to the radioactive decay of elements within the fuel, which persists for many years post-shutdown as the residual radioactive products decay into more stable elements. During the wet storage period, an oxyhydroxide layer composed of boehmite/bayerite forms on the surfaces of the aluminum cladding from exposure to water in the pools. Road-ready packaging for long-term disposition of the ASNF involves dry storage in helium backfilled DOE standard canisters (DSCs). When the ASNF is removed from water storage and dried, most of the water is removed, but some physisorbed and chemisorbed water remains in the oxyhydroxide layers. This residual water can produce hydrogen when exposed to radiation from the ASNF during dry storage. Predicting hydrogen accumulation over time in the DSCs is critical for long-term storage considerations. Previous modeling efforts have developed coupled computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-chemical models to simulate temperature, pressure, and gas phase concentrations within the DSCs. These models use the thermal field predicted by CFD as input to a radiolysis model for the gas phase and the surface oxyhydroxide layer chemistry. Given the long storage period of the DSCs and the impracticality of long-term experiments, a simulation-based approach is necessary to assess chemical evolution within the canisters. This study advances the development of a modeling framework designed to simulate the chemical evolution of spent fuel canisters. Both thermal and radiation-driven reactions are considered, with radiation kinetics quantified using G-values. Sensitivity analysis identifies key parameters influencing species composition. Reaction pathway diagrams offer insight into dominant species formation routes, enabling more effective comparisons between model predictions and experimental observations, particularly regarding the production of hydrogen. Results show that the model predicts significant hydrogen gas production with minimal oxygen generation, primarily due to hydrogen formation via boehmite pathways. These findings underscore the importance of accurately characterizing surface-bound species and radiolysis kinetics. A deeper understanding of these mechanisms is critical for evaluating the long-term safety of nuclear waste storage.

12 - MGMT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTE↗

Autonomous Landing and Ingress of Micro-Air-Vehicles in Urban Environments Based on Monocular Vision

Unmanned micro air vehicles (MAVs) will play an important role in future reconnaissance and search and rescue applications. In order to conduct persistent surveillance and to conserve energy, MAVs need the ability to land, and they need the ability to enter (ingress) buildings and other structures to conduct reconnaissance. To be safe and practical under a wide range of environmental conditions, landing and ingress maneuvers must be autonomous, using real-time, onboard sensor feedback. To address these key behaviors, we present a novel method for vision-based autonomous MAV landing and ingress using a single camera for two urban scenarios: landing on an elevated surface, representative of a rooftop, and ingress through a rectangular opening, representative of a door or window. Real-world scenarios will not include special navigation markers, so we rely on tracking arbitrary scene features; however, we do currently exploit planarity of the scene. Our vision system uses a planar homography decomposition to detect navigation targets and to produce approach waypoints as inputs to the vehicle control algorithm. Scene perception, planning, and control run onboard in real-time; at present we obtain aircraft position knowledge from an external motion capture system, but we expect to replace this in the near future with a fully self-contained, onboard, vision-aided state estimation algorithm. We demonstrate autonomous vision-based landing and ingress target detection with two different quadrotor MAV platforms. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of onboard, vision-based autonomous landing and ingress algorithms that do not use special purpose scene markers to identify the destination.

micro air vehicles (MAVs)↗

Comparing Tropopause-Penetrating Convection Identifications Derived from NEXRAD and GOES over the Contiguous United States

Overshooting cloud tops (OTs) are a result of powerful updrafts that rapidly transport air from the troposphere to the lower stratosphere. Aside from the well-known relationships between strong updrafts and severe weather, the boundaries of updrafts, including the OT, are turbulent, which leads to irreversible mixing of air between the stratosphere and troposphere, altering the composition of both layers. In order to better understand the impact of OTs, knowing precisely when and where they occur is vital. Within the last decade remote-sensing observations from satellites and radars have been used to identify OTs, but the results thus far have not been entirely consistent due to challenges with accurately identifying OTs with these sensor datasets. This study compares OTs identified using NEXRAD reflectivity data from the GridRad dataset with an approach that uses GOES infrared (IR) data. The GridRad method estimates the altitude of echo tops directly from the radar pointing geometry, merging a combination of radars that enables products every 5 mins, with 2 km spatial and 1 km vertical grid spacing. The GOES satellite method uses spatial patterns in tropopause-relative IR brightness temperature to derive an OT likelihood. The study region covers a large part of the contiguous United States during selected active convection dates in 2017 and includes data from GOES-13/16. A large sample of OTs observed by NEXRAD and GOES-13/16 satellites are analyzed to better understand NEXRAD and IR observations of OTs, quantify agreement between the OT detection methods, and demonstrate how the 4x increase in spatial resolution from GOES-13 to GOES-16 impacts OT algorithm detection performance. The results show that for nearly time-matched scenes, with many severe storms, GOES-13 and -16 detection accuracy is quite comparable; however, some missed detections are attributed to poorer GOES-13 image resolution. It was found that GOES-13 OT regions are ~2 K warmer than GOES-16 on average, but such differences exceed 5 K for the most intense OT regions. It is found that false GOES IR-based detections are unavoidable, given that cold cloud pixels significantly colder than the tropopause from nearby or recently decayed OTs can persist within anvils for 15 minutes or more.

John W. Cooney↗

Uncertainty Determination for Aeroheating in Uranus and Saturn Probe Entries by the Monte Carlo Method

The 2013-2022 Decaedal survey for planetary exploration has identified probe missions to Uranus and Saturn as high priorities. This work endeavors to examine the uncertainty for determining aeroheating in such entry environments. Representative entry trajectories are constructed using the TRAJ software. Flowfields at selected points on the trajectories are then computed using the Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) Computational Fluid Dynamics Code. A Monte Carlo study is performed on the DPLR input parameters to determine the uncertainty in the predicted aeroheating, and correlation coefficients are examined to identify which input parameters show the most influence on the uncertainty. A review of the present best practices for input parameters (e.g. transport coefficient and vibrational relaxation time) is also conducted. It is found that the 2(sigma) - uncertainty for heating on Uranus entry is no more than 2.1%, assuming an equilibrium catalytic wall, with the uncertainty being determined primarily by diffusion and H(sub 2) recombination rate within the boundary layer. However, if the wall is assumed to be partially or non-catalytic, this uncertainty may increase to as large as 18%. The catalytic wall model can contribute over 3x change in heat flux and a 20% variation in film coefficient. Therefore, coupled material response/fluid dynamic models are recommended for this problem. It was also found that much of this variability is artificially suppressed when a constant Schmidt number approach is implemented. Because the boundary layer is reacting, it is necessary to employ self-consistent effective binary diffusion to obtain a correct thermal transport solution. For Saturn entries, the 2(sigma) - uncertainty for convective heating was less than 3.7%. The major uncertainty driver was dependent on shock temperature/velocity, changing from boundary layer thermal conductivity to diffusivity and then to shock layer ionization rate as velocity increases. While radiative heating for Uranus entry was negligible, the nominal solution for Saturn computed up to 20% radiative heating at the highest velocity examined. The radiative heating followed a non-normal distribution, with up to a 3x variation in magnitude. This uncertainty is driven by the H(sub 2) dissociation rate, as H(sub 2) that persists in the hot non-equilibrium zone contributes significantly to radiation.

Palmer, Grant↗

Femoral Head Bone Loss Following Short and Long-Duration Spaceflight

Exposure to mechanical unloading during spaceflight is known to have significant effects on the musculoskeletal system. Our ongoing studies with the mouse bone model have identified the failure of normal stem cell-based tissue regeneration, in addition to tissue degeneration, as a significant concern for long-duration spaceflight, especially in the mesenchymal and hematopoietic tissue lineages. The 30-day BionM1 and the 37-day Rodent Research 1 (RR1) missions enabled the possibility of studying these effects in long-duration microgravity experiments. We hypothesized that the inhibition of stem cell-based tissue regeneration in short-duration spaceflight would continue during long-duration spaceflight and furthermore would result in significant tissue alterations. MicroCT analysis of BionM1 femurs revealed 31% decrease in bone volume ratio, a 14% decrease in trabecular thickness, and a 20% decrease in trabecular number in the femoral head of space-flown mice. Furthermore, high-resolution MicroCT and immunohistochemical analysis of spaceflight tissues revealed a severe disruption of the epiphyseal boundary, resulting in endochondral ossification of the femoral head and perforation of articular cartilage by bone. This suggests that spaceflight in microgravity may cause rapid induction of an aging-like phenotype with signs of osteoarthritic disease in the hip joint. However, mice from RR1 exhibited significant bone loss in the femoral head but did not exhibit the severe aging and disease-like phenotype observed during BionM1.This may be due to increased physical activity in the RH hardware. Immunohistochemical analysis of the epiphyseal plate and investigation of cellular proliferation and differentiation pathways within the marrow compartment and whole bone tissue is currently being conducted to determine alterations in stem cell-based tissue regeneration between these experiments. Our results show that the observed inhibition of stem cell-based tissue regeneration persists during long-duration spaceflight. Furthermore, spaceflight femurs from BionM1 indicate onset of an accelerated aging-like phenotype with signs of osteoarthritic disease shown by disruption of the epiphyseal boundary and endochondral ossification. These effects are likely caused by a failure of stem cells to regenerate degraded tissues and may have significant implications for bone and cartilage health following extensive periods of mechanical unloading during long-duration spaceflight.

microgravity↗

BRCore: an R package implementing flexible selection of core taxa using contribution to Bray-Curtis dissimilarity and neutral model fitting

Identifying core taxa in microbial ecology highlights groups likely to participate in a broad range of potential ecological interactions. Here, we present BRCore, an R package to identify core taxa using abundance-occupancy distributions and beta-diversity contributions across ecological niches, and predict stochastic and deterministic taxa.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Femoral Head Bone Loss Following Short and Long-Duration Spaceflight

Exposure to mechanical unloading during spaceflight is known to have significant effects on the musculoskeletal system. Our ongoing studies with the mouse bone model have identified the failure of normal stem cell-based tissue regeneration, in addition to tissue degeneration, as a significant concern for long-duration spaceflight, especially in the mesenchymal and hematopoietic tissue lineages. The 30-day BionM1 and the 37-day Rodent Research 1 (RR1) missions enabled the possibility of studying these effects in long-duration microgravity experiments. We hypothesized that the inhibition of stem cell-based tissue regeneration in short-duration spaceflight would continue during long-duration spaceflight and furthermore would result in significant tissue alterations. MicroCT analysis of BionM1 femurs revealed 31 decrease in bone volume ratio, a 14 decrease in trabecular thickness, and a 20 decrease in trabecular number in the femoral head of space-flown mice. Furthermore, high-resolution MicroCT and immunohistochemical analysis of spaceflight tissues revealed a severe disruption of the epiphyseal boundary, resulting in endochondral ossification of the femoral head and perforation of articular cartilage by bone. This suggests that spaceflight in microgravity may cause rapid induction of an aging-like phenotype with signs of osteoarthritic disease in the hip joint. However, mice from RR1 exhibited significant bone loss in the femoral head but did not exhibit the severe aging and disease-like phenotype observed during BionM1. This may be due to increased physical activity in the RH hardware. Immunohistochemical analysis of the epiphyseal plate and investigation of cellular proliferation and differentiation pathways within the marrow compartment and whole bone tissue is currently being conducted to determine alterations in stem cell-based tissue regeneration between these experiments. Our results show that the observed inhibition of stem cell-based tissue regeneration persists during long-duration spaceflight. Furthermore, spaceflight femurs from BionM1 indicate onset of an accelerated aging-like phenotype with signs of osteoarthritic disease shown by disruption of the epiphyseal boundary and endochondral ossification. These effects are likely caused by a failure of stem cells to regenerate degraded tissues and may have significant implications for bone and cartilage health following extensive periods of mechanical unloading during long-duration spaceflight.

stem cells↗

A Gravity Analysis of the Subsurface Structure of the Utopia Impact Basin

The large, shallow, circular depression in Utopia Planitia has been identified as a huge impact basin, based on both geological evidence and detailed analysis of MOLA topography. Its diameter (approximately 3000 km) is equivalent to that of the Hellas basin, as is its inferred age (early Noachian). However, there the similarity ends. Their appearance, both surficially and geophysically, are virtually polar opposites. Whereas Hellas is extremely deep with rough terrain and large slopes, high-precision MOLA measurements were required to unambiguously define the smooth, shallow, almost imperceptible bowl of the Utopia basin. Conversely, Utopia displays one of the largest (non-Tharsis-related) positive geoid anomalies on Mars, in contrast to a more subdued negative anomaly over Hellas. As these two features presumably formed roughly contemporaneously by similar mechanisms, it is reasonable to assume that they were originally quite similar, and that their differences are due largely to different paths of subsequent modification. The obvious source for these differences is in their elevations: Hellas is located in the southern highlands at a rim elevation of about 3km, whereas Utopia is in the lowlying northern plains, at an average elevation of 4 km. Thus Utopia has been in an especially gravitationally favorable position to be subjected to infilling, for example, by lava flows, sedimentation, or water. In fact, its floor was almost certainly the lowest point on the planet at one time, and it would have been the termination point for down-slope drainage from over two-thirds of Mars. Thus the nature of the material filling this basin has strong connections to the sedimentary and/or volcanic processes acting on Mars in the Noachian and Early Hesperian periods. In particular, it may be able to shed some light on amount and persistence of water on early Mars in general and in the Utopia basin in particular. In this study I will use the inferred early correspondence between Hellas and Utopia to investigate Utopia's subsurface structure.

Barnerdt, W. B.↗

Unraveling the Hsp70-ROS-autophagy axis in pentachlorophenol-challenged lung and liver epithelial cells

Pentachlorophenol (PCP) was extensively utilized as an organochlorine pesticide and wood preservative in the United States from the 1930s until the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) imposed restrictions due to concerns about its toxicity and potential carcinogenic properties. Although it is no longer widely used, PCP remains a concern due to its environmental persistence and potential for long-term health effects. Significant occupational and environmental exposures have likely occurred, with the health and economic costs of PCP exposure potentially being substantial given its known toxicity. Notably, PCP exhibits rapid absorption through both the skin and respiratory system and has been shown to cause hepatotoxicity, developmental toxicity, immunotoxicity, irritation, and carcinogenicity in laboratory animal studies. PCP exposure induces oxidative stress, a key mechanism underlying its inflammatory and toxic effects, which can activate cellular stress responses including upregulation of heat shock protein 70 (Hsp70). Previous studies in lung and liver epithelial cells have shown that Hsp70 and oxidative stress play pivotal roles in triggering autophagy. This study establishes the critical role of the Hsp70-reactive oxygen species (ROS)-autophagy axis in regulating cellular responses to PCP exposure in human alveolar (A549) and liver carcinoma (HepG2) epithelial cells. Our research elucidated the molecular mechanisms underlying PCP's cellular effects, demonstrating that its exposure resulted in increased expression of autophagy-related proteins (Beclin-1, LC3B, ATG12, and ATG16), subunits of NADPH oxidase (NCF-1, NCF-2, NOX2, and Rac), and antioxidant proteins (SOD and GPx) in both lung and liver cell types. Notably, PCP augmented the interaction between Hsp70 and the autophagy regulator Beclin-1. Pretreatment with the ROS inhibitor N-acetylcysteine or Hsp70 knockdown markedly reversed PCP-induced responses. Our in-silico protein–protein docking analysis and molecular dynamics simulation studies revealed enhanced interactions and/or stable confirmations maintained throughout the simulations for TLR4-Hsp70 and Hsp70-Beclin-1 complexes in the presence of PCP. These findings provide a strong foundation for future studies, employing in vivo experimental models and human populations to identify promising targets for PCP-induced toxicity and cellular injury. As a result, these findings may have far-reaching implications for public health and environmental policy, ultimately leading to the identification of biomarkers and the development of more effective interventions for environmentally induced toxicity and diseases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Proliferated Resilient Economical Half-Meter Aperture Space Telescopes (PREEMPT)

The PREEMPT LDRD was motivated by a major national need for better space-based imaging systems that are both high performing and affordable for the US Government. Current optical payloads for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and space domain awareness (SDA) missions can cost hundreds of millions of dollars and take years to develop, which makes it difficult to build the large constellations required for persistent, world-wide coverage. To address this, the team aimed to advance a different kind of large-aperture (>25 cm) telescope, called a monolithic telescope, in which key optical surfaces are built into a single piece of fused silica. This design greatly reduces payload and spacecraft complexity, the need for precision focus actuators, improves mechanical and thermal robustness, and lowers cost when compared with traditional Cassegrain telescopes that rely on many precisely aligned components. The project focused on five primary thrusts. The first thrust was to advance the concept of a V10, 25 cm, monolithic telescope forward from optical design to flight-ready stage. This was accomplished in partnership with Optimax, who delivered the first test unit in the early stages of the LDRD. The team developed several technologies necessary for this optic to be integrated into a flight demonstration. These include carbon fiber housings, highly detailed structural and thermal models and stress-reducing elastic averaging Hirth groove designs. These technologies resulted in a successful maturation of the optic, which is now slated to fly in late 2026/early 2027 for a demonstration mission. The second thrust was to advance the manufacturability of these optics. In collaboration with NIF’s optical manufacturing shop, we reduced polishing time from 480 hours to 65 hours through the implementation of optimized processes and new tools. The NIF team utilized a conceptual V8 (18 cm) optic to demonstrate this optimization, though it can be applied to the rest of the monolithic optic portfolio. Third, the team developed the first conceptual V20 (50 cm) payload, which is slated to be the next generation of LLNL optical payload systems. A set of structural, dynamic and thermal simulations were performed to identify potential challenges in the future development of this payload. Early-stage simulations suggest the payload is feasible, though thermal management will be the key focus area to maintain optimal performance. Fourth, a non-linear model of Viton was developed, to further enhance the reliability of our structural and dynamic models for future payloads. Viton acts as the primary interface material between the optic and its housing. Lastly, the team focused on successfully displaying the feasibility of using additively manufactured metal composites for optical space payloads. The team successfully demonstrated layer by layer deposition of Al-SiC composites, which have highly tunable structural and coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) properties. These are crucial for optical payloads because CTE mismatch is one of the causes for degraded optical performance for telescopes in orbit. Overall, the work showed that monolithic telescopes could become a practical, lower-cost path to high-resolution space imaging for both national security and scientific missions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

2025 Status Report - Fiberboard Properties and Degradation Rates for Storage of 9975 Shipping Package in KAC

Fiberboard assemblies in the 9975 package were identified as susceptible to aging and degradation under long-term storage conditions. Thermal, mechanical, and physical properties have been measured on fiberboard samples aging for up to 20 years at accelerated conditions. The aging environments include elevated temperature up to 250 ºF (the maximum allowed service temperature for fiberboard in 9975 packages) and elevated humidity. Accelerated aging results have been analyzed and used to build aging models. Correlations relating several properties (thermal conductivity, energy absorption, weight, dimensions, and density) to their rate of change in potential storage environments have been developed. Combined with an estimate of the actual conditions the fiberboard experiences in K-Area Complex (KAC), these models allow development of service life predictions. KAC completed calculations that supported extending the service life of 9975 packages with 3013 containers in storage from 20 years to 40 years. These calculations addressed the potential for degraded fiberboard properties following 40 years in storage using degradation models. The 40 year storage evaluations assumed the degradation rates from initial values for density, dimensional, and thermal properties were 0.5% per year (i.e., after 40 years, the density, dimensional, and thermal properties of fiberboard were 80% of its initial values). The updated degradation models developed in this report were compared to the assumptions in those calculations, and the current results for fiberboard dimensions, density, axial and radial thermal conductivities, and energy absorption remain consistent with those calculations. Additional data will continue to be collected to permit future refinements to the models and assumptions. Some of the predicted degradation rates presented in this report are purposely high to accelerate aging. These rates relate to environments that do not exist within KAC or are postulated to only occur as upset conditions that are unlikely to persist for an extended period. For a typical package stored in KAC with approximately 10-12 watts internal heat load or less, and ambient temperatures below 90 ºF, the fiberboard assemblies experience storage conditions less severe than any of the aging environments (i.e., under 125 °F) used in this study. Fiberboard in conforming packages with lower internal heat loads should experience little or no degradation and is expected to provide a service life beyond the currently approved 40 year storage period. Packages with higher internal heat loads may not continue to perform their required safety functions beyond 40 years. Ultimately, service life will be determined by the cumulative effect of degradation from all the conditions these packages might encounter. The results and model predictions presented in this report are applicable to 9975 packages with cane or softwood fiberboard overpack assemblies. These degradation models do not address the effects of nonconforming conditions such as the presence of excess moisture and mold or beetle infestations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Bone and Cartilage Degeneration in Mice Following Long-Duration Spaceflight: The Role of Bone Marrow Stem Cells

The detrimental effects of mechanical unloading in microgravity, including the musculo-skeletal system, are well documented. However, the effects of mechanical unloading on joint health and the interaction between bone and cartilage specifically, are less well known. Our ongoing studies with the mouse bone model have identified the failure of normal stem cell-based tissue regeneration, in addition to tissue degeneration, as a significant concern for long-duration spaceflight, especially in the mesenchymal and hematopoietic tissue lineages. Furthermore, we have identified the cell cycle arrest molecule, CDKN1ap21, as specifically up-regulated during spaceflight exposure and localized to osteoprecursors on the bone surface and chondroprogenitors in articular cartilage that are both required for normal tissue regeneration. The 30-day BionM1 and 37-day Rodent Research 1 (RR1) missions enabled the possibility of studying these effects in long-duration microgravity experiments. We hypothesized that the inhibition of stem cell-based tissue regeneration in short-duration spaceflight would continue during long-duration spaceflight resulting in significant tissue alterations and we specifically studied the hip joint (pelvis and proximal femur) to elucidate these effects. To test this hypothesis we analyzed bone and bone marrow stem cells using techniques including high-resolution Microcomputed Tomography (MicroCT), in-vivo differentiation and migration assays, and whole transcriptome expression profiling. We found that exposure to spaceflight for 30 days results in a significant decrease in bone volume fraction (-31), trabecular thickness (-14) and trabecular number (-20). Similar decrements in bone volume fraction (-27), trabecular number (-13) and trabecular thickness (-17) were found in female mice exposed to 37 days spaceflight. Furthermore, high-resolution MicroCT and immunohistochemical analysis of spaceflight tissues revealed a severe disruption of the epiphyseal boundary, resulting in endochondral ossification of the femoral head and perforation of articular cartilage by bone. This suggests that spaceflight in microgravity may cause rapid induction of an aging-like phenotype with signs of osteoarthritic disease in the hip joint. Microarray analysis also revealed that the top pathways altered during spaceflight include activation of matrix metalloproteinases, oxidative stress signaling and inflammation in both whole bone tissue and isolated bone marrow stem cells. In conclusion, the observed inhibition of stem cell-based tissue regeneration persists during long-duration spaceflight. Furthermore, spaceflight mice exhibit disruption of the epiphyseal boundary and endochondral ossification of the femoral head, and an inhibition of stem cell based tissue regeneration, which, taken together, may indicate onset of an accelerated aging phenotype with signs of osteoarthritic disease.

Cartilage↗

AI Model Benchmarking for Nonproliferation Applications: Steel Thread Benchmarking Task Force Technical Report (Rev. 2)

Steel Thread is a NA-22 venture that seeks to build trustworthy, reliable AI models that can be used in a wide variety of nonproliferation tasks. A key aspect of building these models is developing appropriate benchmarks and evaluation methods, which will enable the venture to identify and adapt models to provide the most value in the nonproliferation domain. Benchmarks must be relevant to key tasks in this domain, such as question answering, information retrieval, document summarization and classification, consensus analysis, and image and data analysis. This report 1) provides an overview of benchmark design, evaluation, and challenges; 2) reviews a variety of open benchmarks, with a focus on language models and tasks; and 3) identifies benchmarks that are most relevant to Steel Thread. This report is intended to serve as a basis for further efforts to classify and evaluate benchmarks and their correlation with success on nonproliferation-specific tasks. The Steel Thread venture has defined benchmarks to be a particular combination of a dataset (or datasets) and a metric (or metrics) conceptualized as representing one or more specific tasks or sets of abilities for a specific modality. It is adopted by a research community as a shared framework for comparing methods.1 It includes 1) Data: Labeled (a designated subset not used for training, which could be all the data), 2) Metric: A way to quantify performance, 3) Task/Ability: What the benchmark is testing, 4) Protocol: A structured and repeatable evaluation process, 5) Baseline/Reference Model: For comparison; could be statistical, rule-based, SME-derived, or another model, and 6) Maintenance Plan: to update with new information over time; important for long-term utility. For further clarity, the definition includes what a benchmark, in this context, is not. It is not a corpus of training data, specific to a model (it is intended to apply to a range of models), a universal evaluation of performance, a guarantee that the ‘top’ model on the leaderboard will be the best fit for every specific use case, an all-encompassing proof of a model’s universal quality, nor is it a one-size-fits-all measure of success. It does not cover every real-world constraint (like operational, ethical, or cost considerations), a systems integration test, or a unit test. This definition was inspired by and resulted from discussions within the Steel Thread Benchmarking Task Force. This group was formed to define what we would mean as a benchmark within Steel Thread but persisted as the need to develop a thorough understanding of the large and expanding existing benchmarking space. This technical report is a result of the group’s divide and conquer approach to exploring this space. The release of benchmarks might not be progressing as quickly as model development, but it is moving very fast, as many benchmarks quickly become saturated, when state-of-the-art models score so close to the benchmark’s ceiling that their results are virtually indistinguishable. At that point, the test no longer differentiates between new systems, so researchers usually stop reporting scores as the benchmark no longer informs about improvements from the next generation of models. In the OpenAI announcement of GPT-5, they reported results on six flagship public benchmarks (AIME 2025, SWE-bench Verified, Aider Polyglot, MMMU, HealthBench Hard, GPQA) but the full system-card covers roughly thirty-five separate evaluations, comprising hundreds of test task items in total. There have been some efforts to summarize benchmarks in specific fields, like for text-to-image generation, but these surveys have had a narrow methodology scope. Therefore, a comprehensive survey of all benchmarks or even all benchmarks that could be relevant to Steel Thread is outside of the scope of this report. We chose some specific benchmarks to investigate in detail.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

On the Importance of Small Ice Crystals in Tropical Anvil Cirrus

In situ measurements of ice crystal concentrations and sizes made with aircraft instrumentation over the past two decades have often indicated the presence of numerous relatively small (< 50 m diameter) crystals in cirrus clouds. Further, these measurements frequently indicate that small crystals account for a large fraction of the extinction in cirrus clouds. The fact that the instruments used to make these measurements, such as the Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe (FSSP) and the Cloud Aerosol Spectrometer (CAS), ingest ice crystals into the sample volume through inlets has led to suspicion that the indications of numerous small ]crystals could be artifacts of large ]crystal shattering on the instrument inlets. We present new aircraft measurements in anvil cirrus sampled during the Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4) campaign with the 2 ] Dimensional Stereo (2D ]S) probe, which detects particles as small as 10 m. The 2D ]S has detector "arms" instead of an inlet tube. Since the 2D ]S probe surfaces are much further from the sample volume than is the case for the instruments with inlets, it is expected that 2D ]S will be less susceptible to shattering artifacts. In addition, particle inter ]arrival times are used to identify and remove shattering artifacts that occur even with the 2D ]S probe. The number of shattering artifacts identified by the 2D ]S interarrival time analysis ranges from a negligible contribution to an order of magnitude or more enhancement in apparent ice concentration over the natural ice concentration, depending on the abundance of large crystals and the natural small ]crystal concentration. The 2D ]S measurements in tropical anvil cirrus suggest that natural small ]crystal concentrations are typically one to two orders of magnitude lower than those inferred from CAS. The strong correlation between the CAS/2D ]S ratio of small ]crystal concentrations and large ]crystal concentration suggests that the discrepancy is likely caused by shattering of large crystals on the CAS inlet. We argue that past measurements with CAS in cirrus with large crystals present may contain errors due to crystal shattering, and past conclusions derived from these measurements may need to be revisited. Further, we present correlations between CAS spurious concentration and 2D ]S large ]crystal mass from spatially uniform anvil cirrus sampling periods as an approximate guide for estimating quantitative impact of large ]crystal shattering on CAS concentrations in previous datasets. We use radiative transfer calculations to demonstrate that in the maritime anvil cirrus sampled during TC4, small crystals indicated by 2D ]S contribute relatively little cloud extinction, radiative forcing, or radiative heating in the anvils, regardless of anvil age or vertical location in the clouds. While 2D ]S ice concentrations in fresh anvil cirrus may often exceed 1 cm.3, and are observed to exceed 10 cm.3 in turrets, they are typically ~0.1 cm.3 and rarely exceed 1 cm.3 (<1.4% of the time) in aged anvil cirrus. We hypothesize that isolated occurrences of higher ice concentrations in aged anvil cirrus may be caused by ice nucleation driven by either small ]scale convection or gravity waves. It appears that the numerous small crystals detrained from convective updrafts do not persist in the anvil cirrus sampled during TC ]4.

Jensen, E. J.↗

Supervised Autonomous Assembly to Create and Evolve Persistent Assets

Supervised autonomous assembly (SAA) will create a paradigm shift in the planning and design of future persistent assets (PAs), both in near zero-g environments and on planetary surfaces. SAA refers to an autonomy approach that has the benefits of autonomous assembly as well as the benefits provided by a supervisor (operator) who is available to resolve unexpected situations. SAA provides both increased design freedom as well as reduced programmatic risk. SAA enables evolution of future PAs over decades as in-space operations transition from single purpose missions to creation of PAs, such as laboratories and experimental stations which more closely resembling terrestrial laboratories that can easily adapt and evolve to new missions leveraging repeated visits to the PA. The ability to evolve enables PAs to rapidly respond to changing objectives resulting from new questions as our understanding improves. A recently initiated National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) project in the Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) Game Changing Development (GCD) Program called the Precision Assembled Space Structure (PASS), leverages the advantages of SAA to develop technologies that enable efficient creation and evolution of hexagonal topologies; both planar (example: fuel depots) and curved (examples: telescopes and shelters). PASS will be used to provide context for the philosophy and concepts discussed as well as the decision and selections made. PASS objectives are: a) Develop confidence in SAA and on-orbit servicing, assembly and manufacturing (OSAM) technologies by executing a test campaign that uses a path-to-flight autonomous precision assembly process directly applicable to future space telescopes. b) Test autonomous technologies including automated path planning and error recovery, to emphasize a robust approach that relies on generic robots and special purpose tools. c) Validate critical component models using a digital twin that includes the assembled primary mirror support structure and assembly process. A digital twin is a high-fidelity simulation of the asset capable of predicting the on-orbit performance. The paper concludes after identifying the critical need for a modest assembly flight experiment to validate and develop confidence in the SAA paradigm, thus accelerating adoption of the benefits described. SAA is a game changing paradigm that enhances the ability of an organization to infuse new technology through rapid evolution of PAs while leveraging OSAM technologies.

Structural Modeling↗

Flat-Spectrum Radio Sources as Likely Counterparts of Unidentified INTEGRAL Sources (Research Note)

Many sources in the fourth INTEGRAL/IBIS catalogue are still unidentified since they lack an optical counterpart. An important tool that can help in identifying and classifying these sources is the cross-correlation with radio catalogues, which are very sensitive and positionally accurate. Moreover, the radio properties of a source, such as the spectrum or morphology, could provide further insight into its nature. In particular, flat-spectrum radio sources at high Galactic latitudes are likely to be AGN, possibly associated to a blazar or to the compact core of a radio galaxy. Here we present a small sample of 6 sources extracted from the fourth INTEGRAL/IBIS catalogue that are still unidentified or unclassified, but which are very likely associated with a bright, flat-spectrum radio object. To confirm the association and to study the source X-ray spectral parameters, we performed X-ray follow-up observations with Swift/XRT of all objects. We report in this note the overall results obtained from this search and discuss the nature of each individual INTEGRAL source. We find that 5 of the 6 radio associations are also detected in X-rays; furthermore, in 3 cases they are the only counterpart found. More specifically, IGR J06073−0024 is a flat-spectrum radio quasar at z = 1.08, IGR J14488−4008 is a newly discovered radio galaxy, while IGR J18129−0649 is an AGN of a still unknown type. The nature of two sources (IGR J07225−3810 and IGR J19386−4653) is less well defined, since in both cases we find another X-ray source in the INTEGRAL error circle; nevertheless, the flat-spectrum radio source, likely to be a radio loud AGN, remains a viable and, in fact, a more convincing association in both cases. Only for the last object (IGR J11544−7618) could we not find any convincing counterpart since the radio association is not an X-ray emitter, while the only X-ray source seen in the field is a G star and therefore unlikely to produce the persistent emission seen by INTEGRAL.

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New Perspectives of Ancient Mars: Mineral Diversity and Crystal Chemistry at Gale Crater, Mars from the CheMin X-Ray Diffractometer

The Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover arrived at Mars in August 2012 with a primary goal of characterizing the habitability of ancient and modern environments. Curiosity landed in Gale crater to study a sequence of ~3.5 Ga old sedimentary rocks that, based on orbital visible/near-infrared reflectance spectra, contain secondary minerals that suggest deposition and/or alteration in liquid water. The sedimentary sequence that comprises the lower slopes of Mount Sharp within Gale crater may preserve a dramatic shift on early Mars from a relatively warm and wet climate to a cold and dry climate based on a transition from smectite-bearing strata to sulfate-bearing strata. The rover is equipped with cameras and geochemical and mineralogical instruments to examine the sedimentology and identify compositional changes within the stratigraphy. These observations provide information about variations in depositional and diagenetic environments over time. The Chemistry and Mineralogy (CheMin) instrument is one of two internal laboratories on Curiosity and includes a transmission X-ray diffractometer (XRD) and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) spectrometer with a Co-K source. CheMin measures loose sediment samples scooped from the surface and drilled rock powders. The XRD provides quantitative mineralogy of scooped and drilled samples to a detection limit of ~1 wt.%. Curiosity has traversed >20 km since landing and has primarily been exploring the site of a predominantly ancient lake environment fed by groundwater and streams emanating from the crater rim. Results from CheMin demonstrate an incredible diversity in the mineralogy of fluvio-lacustrine rocks that signify variations in source rock composition, sediment transport mechanisms, and depositional and diagenetic fluid chemistry. Abundant trioctahedral smectite and magnetite at the base of the section may have formed from low-salinity pore waters with a circumneutral pH within lake sediments. A transition to dioctahedral smectite, hematite, and Ca-sulfate going up section suggests a change to more saline and oxidative aqueous conditions within the lake waters themselves and/or within diagenetic fluids. The primary minerals detected in fluvio-lacustrine samples by CheMin also suggest diversity in the igneous source regions for the sediments, where abundant pyroxene and plagioclase in most samples suggest a basaltic protolith, but sanidine and pyroxene in one sample may have been sourced from a potassic trachyte, and tridymite and sanidine in another sample may have been transported from a rhyolitic source. Crystal chemistry of major phases in each sample have been calculated from refined unit-cell parameters, providing further constraints on aqueous alteration processes and igneous protoliths for the sediments. Perhaps one of the biggest mysteries revealed by the CheMin instrument is the high abundance of X-ray amorphous materials (15 to 73 wt.%) in all samples measured to date. X-ray amorphous materials were detected by CheMin based on the observation of broad humps in XRD patterns. How these materials formed, their composition, and why they persist near the martian surface remain a topic of debate. The sedimentology and composition of the rocks analyzed by Curiosity demonstrate that habitable environments persisted intermittently on the surface or in the subsurface of Gale crater for perhaps more than a billion years.

Rampe, E. B.↗

Multi-Semester Mentoring and GPA Trajectories in SPINS: A Longitudinal Program Evaluation of STEM Scholars

This exploratory longitudinal program evaluation examined GPA trajectories among 14 STEM scholars participating in the Scholarly Partnership in Nuclear Security (SPINS) mentoring program at an HBCU. Using de-identified administrative data (37 scholar-semester observations), the study compared baseline and latest term GPAs anchored to each scholar’s first funded semester. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to assess within-student change. Mean GPA increased modestly from 3.46 (SD = 0.30) at baseline to 3.61 (SD = 0.33) at the latest observed semester, with 12 of 14 scholars (85.7%) showing net improvement (median change = +0.12). The Wilcoxon signed-rank test indicated a statistically significant positive shift (W = 18, p = 0.030). However, scholars entered the program with a high baseline GPA, and ceiling effects were evident for several participants. Grounded in Social Cognitive Career Theory, findings suggest that multi-semester participation in SPINS is associated with GPA stability and modest improvement in an already high-performing cohort. Results should be interpreted cautiously given the small sample size and single-group design. The study highlights the value of sustained, culturally responsive mentoring at an HBCU while underscoring the need for larger evaluations with comparison cohorts and broader psychosocial outcomes. An evidence-informed mentoring framework is proposed to strengthen multi-semester support.

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