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DOE OSTI2020

Arctic Tipping Points Triggering Global Change (LDRD Final Report)

The Arctic is warming and feedbacks in the coupled Earth system may be driving the Arctic to tipping events that could have critical downstream impacts for the rest of the globe. In this project we have focused on analyzing sea ice variability and loss in the coupled Earth system Summer sea ice loss is happening rapidly and although the loss may be smooth and reversible, it has significant consequences for other Arctic systems as well as geopolitical and economic implications. Accurate seasonal predictions of sea ice minimum extent and long-term estimates of timing for a seasonally ice-free Arctic depend on a better understanding of the factors influencing sea ice dynamics and variation in this strongly coupled system. Under this project we have investigated the most influential factors in accurate predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent using machine learning models trained separately on observational data and on simulation data from five E3SM historical ensembles. Monthly averaged data from June, July, and August for a selection of ice, ocean, and atmosphere variables were used to train a random forest regression model. Gini importance measures were computed for each input feature with the testing data. We found that sea ice volume is most important earlier in the season (June) and sea ice extent became a more important predictor closer to September. Results from this study provide insight into how feature importance changes with forecast length and illustrates differences between observational data and simulated Earth system data. We have additionally performed a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled ultra- low resolution configuration E3SM. To our knowledge, this is the first global sensitivity analysis involving the fully-coupled E3SM Earth system model. We have found that parameter variations show significant impact on the Arctic climate state and atmospheric parameters related to cloud parameterizations are the most significant. We also find significant interactions between parameters from different components of E3SM. The results of this study provide invaluable insight into the relative importance of various parameters from the sea ice, atmosphere and ocean components of the E3SM (including cross-component parameter interactions) on various Arctic-focused quantities of interest (QOIs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Random Walks and Sticky Surfaces: Single-Molecule Measurements of Solute Diffusion in Ethanol/Water-Filled Anodic Alumina Nanopores

Nanoporous anodic aluminum oxide (AAO) membranes are now being explored for use in advanced chemical separations, including in the dehydration of biofuels such as ethanol. Optimization of membrane performance requires an in-depth understanding of how solvent mixtures and solutes behave under nanoconfinement. In this work, the diffusion of rhodamine B (RhB) dye through 10 nm and 20 nm AAO nanopores filled with a series of ethanol/water mixtures (0 - 33% water) is explored by fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS). RhB was found to diffuse through the pores by two distinct mechanisms with mean diffusion coefficients, $D_f$ and $D_s$, reflecting fast and slow diffusive motions, respectively, with values that differ by nearly two orders of magnitude. Further, both $D_f$ and $D_s$ increased with pore size and were significantly smaller than $D_b$, the RhB diffusion coefficient in bulk liquid. Mean $D_f$ values follow a composition-dependent trend that closely mimics the viscosity dependence of $D_b$. Additional slowing of fast RhB diffusion is attributed to both hydrodynamic drag and electrostatic interactions with the nanopore surface. The mean $D_s$ values exhibit a different trend with increasing water content, revealing an increase in $D_s$ and a decrease in the contributions of slow diffusion to the observed dynamics. The fluorescence time transient data used in the analysis show that the slow diffusion process is strongly hindered and likely involves frequent adsorption of RhB to the pore surfaces. These results provide new insights into the detailed molecular-level mechanisms of mass transport in nanoporous AAO membranes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Correlations between conduction electrons in dense plasmas

Most treatments of electron-electron correlations in dense plasmas either ignore them entirely (random phase approximation) or neglect the role of ions (jellium approximation). In this work, we go beyond both these approximations to derive a formula for the electron-electron static structure factor which properly accounts for the contributions of both ionic structure and quantum-mechanical dynamic response in the electrons. The result can be viewed as a natural extension of the quantum Ornstein-Zernike theory of ionic and electronic correlations, and it is suitable for dense plasmas in which the ions are classical and the conduction electrons are quantum-mechanical. Here, the corresponding electron-electron pair distribution functions are compared with the results of path integral Monte Carlo simulations, showing good agreement whenever no strong electron resonance states are present. We construct approximate potentials of mean force which describe the effective screened interaction between electrons. Significant deviations from Debye-Hückel screening are present at temperatures and densities relevant to high-energy density experiments involving warm and hot dense plasmas. The presence of correlations between conduction electrons is likely to influence the electron-electron contribution to the electrical and thermal conductivity. It is expected that excitation processes involving the conduction electrons (e.g., free-free absorption) will also be affected.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decayheatml

This code is designed to predict and analyze the decay heat generated in molten salt reactors (MSRs) using a hybrid approach that combines machine learning and segmented polynomial fitting. The accurate prediction of decay heat is essential for reactor safety and the optimization of spent fuel storage. The code operates through several key components: 1) Data Architecture: It incorporates a modular data architecture that handles various MSR-specific operational parameters such as power density, humidity content, and air ingress. These parameters are sampled using Sobol sequences to ensure comprehensive coverage of operational uncertainties. 2) Machine Learning Framework: The code employs a diverse set of machine learning models, including polynomial regression, decision trees, random forests, gradient boosting, support vector regression, k-nearest neighbors, multi-layer perceptrons, and symbolic regression. These models are trained to predict decay heat over a wide temporal range, from immediate shutdown up to 10,000 years. 3) Region-Optimized Training: The temporal domain is divided into multiple regions, each modeled separately to capture distinct decay heat characteristics across different time scales. This approach significantly improves the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. 4) Segmented Polynomial Interpretation (SPI): The SPI method translates machine learning predictions into piecewise polynomial equations. These equations are physically interpretable and can be directly integrated into existing engineering workflows and safety analyses. 5) Front-End Interfaces: The code includes both a Jupyter notebook interface for research development and a Streamlit web application for operational deployment. These interfaces allow users to interactively explore decay heat predictions, adjust operational parameters, and visualize results in real-time. 6) Applications: The framework supports various applications, including safety system validation and spent fuel container optimization. It enables real-time evaluation of worst-case decay heat scenarios, informing the design of passive safety systems and optimizing container designs for long-term storage. Overall, this code provides a robust, accurate, and user-friendly tool for predicting decay heat in MSRs, enhancing reactor safety, and optimizing spent fuel management.

Retamales, Mauricio Eduardo Tano [Idaho National L↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Projected Network Model of Online Disinformation Cascades

Within the past half-decade, it has become overwhelmingly clear that suppressing the spread of deliberate false and misleading information is of the utmost importance for protecting democratic institutions. Disinformation has been found to come from both foreign and domestic actors, but the effects from either can be disastrous. From the simple encouragement of unwarranted distrust to conspiracy theories promoting violence, the results of disinformation have put the functionality of American democracy under direct threat. Present scientific challenges posed by this problem include detecting disinformation, quantifying its potential impact, and preventing its amplification. We present a model on which we can experiment with possible strategies toward the third challenge: the prevention of amplification. This is a social contagion network model, which is decomposed into layers to represent physical, ''offline'', interactions as well as virtual interactions on a social media platform. Along with the topological modifications to the standard contagion model, we use state-transition rules designed specifically for disinformation, and distinguish between contagious and non-contagious infected nodes. We use this framework to explore the effect of grassroots social movements on the size of disinformation cascades by simulating these cascades in scenarios where a proportion of the agents remove themselves from the social platform. We also test the efficacy of strategies that could be implemented at the administrative level by the online platform to minimize such spread. These top-down strategies include banning agents who disseminate false information, or providing corrective information to individuals exposed to false information to decrease their probability of believing it. We find an abrupt transition to smaller cascades when a critical number of random agents are removed from the platform, as well as steady decreases in the size of cascades with increasingly more convincing corrective information. Finally, we compare simulated cascades on this framework with real cascades of disinformation recorded on Whatsapp surrounding the 2019 Indian election. We find a set of hyperparameter values that produces a distribution of cascades matching the scaling exponent of the distribution of actual cascades recorded in the dataset. We acknowledge the available future directions for improving the performance of the framework and validation methods, as well as ways to extend the model to capture additional features of social contagion.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

MgO Nanostructures on Cu(111): Understanding Size- and Morphology-Dependent CO 2 Binding and Hydrogenation

To design and optimize cost-effective technologies for the capture, utilization, and storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), we need a fundamental knowledge and control of chemical interactions associated with the capture and conversion of the molecule into high-value chemicals, minerals, and all kinds of materials. Bulk magnesium oxide (MgO) is frequently used for the trapping and storage of CO 2 by generation of magnesium carbonates. In this study, the growth and reactivity of MgO nanostructures on a Cu 2 O/Cu(111) substrate were investigated using scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) and synchrotron-based ambient-pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (AP-XPS). For extremely small concentrations of Mg (~ 0.01 monolayer (ML)), a well-ordered film of copper oxide with small clusters (0.2-0.5 nm in width, 0.4-0.6 Å in height) of embedded MgO was seen. At a coverage of 0.1 ML, MgO nanoparticles with a width of 0.4 to 1 nm and a height of ~ 1.5 Å were randomly distributed on the copper oxide. Further, random distribution was also observed when the MgO coverage was raised to 0.25 ML, with the width of the MgO particles increasing to 2-2.5 nm and the height reaching 2 Å. These oxide nanostructures displayed a high reactivity towards CO 2 and H 2 that is not seen for bulk MgO. Dissociation of H 2 was observed at room temperature with reaction of the H adatoms with CuO x and C-containing groups. On the small MgO nanostructures (< 1 nm in width), instead of plain carbonate formation, there was dissociation of CO 2 into CO and C species, opening reaction channels for the conversion of this harmful molecule into oxygenates and light alkanes.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Testing effects of invasive fire ants and disturbance on ant communities of the longleaf pine ecosystem

Invasive species and habitat disturbance are among the most important drivers of biodiversity loss and ecological change. Their individual effects, however, are difficult to disentangle because invasion and disturbance are often intimately linked. Here we test alternative hypotheses to determine if the invasive red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta, is a ‘driver’ or simply a ‘passenger’ of ecological change in a longleaf pine ecosystem. We randomly assigned treatments of (1) unmanipulated, (2) soil disturbance, (3) fire ant removal and (4) soil disturbance + fire ant removal to experimental blocks and measured how ant communities changed over 2 years in thirty-six 15-m 2 plots. Additionally, fire ant abundance in removal plots averaged 42% lower in pitfall traps and 95% lower on baits compared to unmanipulated, control plots. Species richness of co-occurring ants also decreased 42% in removal plots, with significant changes in community composition. Soil disturbance alone did not affect ant communities. Fire ant diet breadth—measured using carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes—increased up to 4.7-fold in soil disturbance + removal plots (i.e. 0.84‰ 2 to 3.94‰ 2 ). While non-target impacts of the fire ant removal treatment complicate interpretation, our results suggest fire ants follow an alternative ‘interacting drivers’ model in which partial recovery of some species occurs when populations of an invasive species are reduced. Further recovery of native ants may be limited by persisting, landscape-level effects of fire ants suppressing co-occurring ants below historical levels.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Neural Network Solver for Small Quantum Clusters

Machine learning approaches have recently been applied to the study of various problems in physics. Most of these studies are focused on interpreting the data generated by conventional numerical methods or the data on an existing experimental database. An interesting question is whether it is possible to use a machine learning approach, in particular a neural network, for solving the many-body problem. In this paper, we present a neural network solver for the single impurity Anderson model, the paradigm of an interacting quantum problem in small clusters. We demonstrate that the neural-network-based solver provides quantitative accurate results for the spectral function as compared to the exact diagonalization method. This opens the possibility of utilizing the neural network approach as an impurity solver for other many-body numerical approaches, such as the dynamical mean field theory.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Automation of Active Space Selection for Multireference Methods via Machine Learning on Chemical Bond Dissociation

Predicting and understanding the chemical bond is one of the major challenges of computational quantum chemistry. Kohn–Sham density functional theory (KS-DFT) is the most common method, but approximate density functionals may not be able to describe systems where multiple electronic configurations are equally important. Multiconfigurational wave functions, on the other hand, can provide a detailed understanding of the electronic structures and chemical bonds of such systems. In the complete active space self-consistent field (CASSCF) method, one performs a full configuration interaction calculation in an active space consisting of active electrons and active orbitals. However, CASSCF and its variants require the selection of these active spaces. This choice is not black box; it requires significant experience and testing by the user, and thus active space methods are not considered particularly user-friendly and are employed only by a minority of quantum chemists. Our goal is to popularize these methods by making it easier to make good active space choices. Here, we present a machine learning protocol that performs an automated selection of active spaces for chemical bond dissociation calculations of main group diatomic molecules. The protocol shows high prediction performance for a given target system as long as a properly correlated system is chosen for training. Good active spaces are correctly predicted with a considerably better success rate than random guess (larger than 80% precision for most systems studied). Our automated machine learning protocol shows that a “black-box” mode is possible for facilitating and accelerating the large-scale calculations on multireference systems where single-reference methods such as KS-DFT cannot be applied.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian State-Space Modeling Framework for Understanding and Predicting Golden Eagle Movements Using Telemetry Data

Predicting raptor movements through a wind power plant under given atmospheric and topographical conditions is a crucial first step in the overall goal of quantifying the risk of turbine-related collisions and mortalities. Extracting behavioral traits of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) from telemetry data requires the fusion of noisy and sparse movement data (location, heading, velocity) with a stochastic mathematical representation of the eagles' decision-making processes. In this study, we framed this problem in a Bayesian state-space framework where both observations and decision-making are assumed to be stochastic processes connected through hidden states (mode of flight, intent), and the unknown model parameters are assumed to be random variables that are calibrated using the available telemetry data. This framework allowed for rigorous consideration of underlying uncertainties while allowing for both data and prior biological knowledge to contribute to a probabilistic and predictive agent-based movement model. We implemented and applied the Bayesian framework to understand movement behavior of 23 GPS-tagged golden eagles travelling in the western US for years 2019 and 2020. Our preliminary findings show that the Bayesian state-space framework provides a robust inverse modeling apparatus to decode eagle behavioral characteristics from telemetry data. This study was primarily aimed at verifying and validating the framework with selected golden eagle tracks (both long- and short-ranged), with future research aimed at extending the framework to include multi-mode flight, consideration of atmospheric data and uplift mechanisms, eagle-to-eagle interaction, and eagle-to-turbine interaction.

Bayesian modeling↗

DOE OSTI2026

Pythia8 Quark and Gluon Jets (float32)

A float32 (single-precision) version of the quark and gluon jet dataset originally published by Komiske, Metodiev, and Thaler (Zenodo record 3164691). Only the 20-file subset without charm and bottom quark jets is included here. All simulation parameters and jet selection criteria are identical to the original: Pythia 8.226, √s = 14 TeV Quarks from WeakBosonAndParton:qg2gmZq, gluons from WeakBosonAndParton:qqbar2gmZg with the Z decaying to neutrinos FastJet 3.3.0, anti-k_t jets with R = 0.4 p_T^jet ∈ [500, 550] GeV, |y^jet| < 1.7 There are 20 files, each in compressed NumPy format (QG_jets_fp32_0.npz through QG_jets_fp32_19.npz). Each file contains two arrays: X: (100000, M, 4) — 50k quark and 50k gluon jets, randomly sorted, padded to max multiplicity M, with particle features (pt, rapidity, azimuthal angle, pdgid) stored as float32 y: (100000,) — jet labels, gluon = 0, quark = 1 The original dataset stores X in float64. Here X has been cast to float32, approximately halving file size. The y labels are unchanged. If you use this dataset, please cite the original Zenodo record and its associated paper: Komiske, Metodiev, Thaler, Energy Flow Networks: Deep Sets for Particle Jets, JHEP 01 (2019) 121, arXiv:1810.05165

energyflow↗

DOE OSTI2022

High throughput single cell multiomics platform [Abstract]

In this collaborative project, PNNL and Scienion will co-develop an integrated microfluidic technology to co-measure the transcriptome and proteome in single cells. The technology will enable us to efficiently separate proteins from mRNA transcripts between two microchips, barcode the molecules, and measure them separately with next-generation sequencing and mass spectrometry, respectively. Multicellular organisms contain diverse cell types and tremendous cell-to-cell heterogeneity that dictates a multitude of biological functions in both physiological and pathological environments. Even in the case of microbes, these genetically identical organisms can randomly differentiate into many subpopulations that assume different roles for the survival of the community. Bulk-scale measurements are insufficient to resolve such complexities. The development and applications of high throughput single-cell omics technologies have transformed our understanding of cellular heterogeneities and their differential responses to internal signaling events or external stimulations. Despite these advances, most current single-cell omic technologies provide information on only one type of biomolecule. Perse, such measurements provide incomplete information because the cell phenotype is determined by multiple layers of biomolecules and the interplay between genome, epigenome, transcriptome, and proteome. For example, mRNA abundance in one cell can not be precisely referred to the corresponding DNA and protein in other cells because of the potential subtle difference in genotype (e.g., somatic mutation or copy number variation) or phenotype (external microenvironment and cell-cell interactions). As such, parallel measurement of multiple biomolecules in the same single cells can offer unique advantages compared with measuring them separately in different single cells. Scienion is a world-leading biotech company focusing on precision liquid handling and its application in single-cell whole-genome sequencing and RNA sequencing. PNNL is the leading institution in ultrasensitive mass spectrometry, microfluidics, and untargeted single-cell proteomics (scProteomics). This collaboration will facilitate a unique fusion between scTranscriptomics capability at Scienion and scProteomics capabilities at PNNL to, for the first time, perform both untargeted transcriptomics and proteomics from the same single cells.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nuclear data uncertainty propagation and modeling uncertainty impact evaluation in neutronics core simulation

Uncertainty analysis is a critical requirement in reactor simulation as it is used to quantify the reliability of best-estimate calculation. A comprehensive uncertainty analysis should characterize all sources of uncertainties in a computationally-feasible and scientifically-defendable manner. Here we employ a well-established reduced order modeling (ROM) based uncertainty quantification methodology to propagate uncertainties throughout neutronic calculations. ROM relies on recent advances in randomized data mining techniques applied to large data streams. In our proposed implementation, the nuclear data uncertainties are first propagated from multi-group level through lattice physics calculation to generate few-group parameter uncertainties, described using a vector of mean values and a covariance matrix. Employing an ROM-based compression of the covariance matrix, the few-group uncertainties are then propagated through downstream core simulation in a computationally efficient manner. This straightforward approach, albeit efficient as compared to brute force forward and/or adjoint-based methods, often employs a number of assumptions that have been unquestioned in the literature of neutronic uncertainty analysis. This manuscript argues that these assumptions could introduce another source of uncertainty referred to as modeling uncertainties, whose magnitude needs to be quantified in tandem with nuclear data uncertainties. Thus, our primary goal is to explore the interactions between these two uncertainty sources in order to assess whether modeling uncertainties have an impact on parameter uncertainties. To explore this endeavor, the impact of a number of modeling assumptions on core attributes uncertainties is quantified. The study employs a CANDU reactor model, with Serpent and NEWT as lattice physics solvers and NESTLE-C as core simulator. The modeling assumptions investigated include those related with the uncertainty propagation method employed, e.g., deterministic vs. stochastic, the few-group energy structure employed to represent the cross-sections, the resonance treatment in lattice physics calculation, the reference values for the cross-section, and the number of samples employed to render ROM compression. Results indicate that some of the modeling assumptions could have a non-negligible impact on the core responses propagated uncertainties, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive approach to combine parameter and modeling uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

The direct and indirect drivers shaping RNA viral communities in grassland soil

Recent studies have revealed diverse RNA viral communities in soils. Yet, how environmental factors influence soil RNA viruses remains largely unknown. Here, we recovered RNA viral communities from 24 metatranscriptomes sequenced from grassland soils managed under a range of environmental conditions including 1) water content: 100% and 25% water holding capacity, 2) plant presence: planted with tall wheatgrass (Thinopyrum ponticum) and bare soil, 3) cultivar type: Alkar and Jose, and 4) soil depth: 0-5 cm and 15-25 cm. The recovered RNA viral communities were novel with nearly one-third of the RNA viral contigs uniquely detected in the studied grassland. The classified RNA viral contigs are mostly known as eukaryotic RNA viruses (74.7%) belonging to Phyla Duplornaviricota, Kitrinoviricota, Lenarviricota, and Pisuviricota. Eukaryotic RNA viruses of Family Mitoviridae as well as their natural hosts, Fungi, are one of the most dominant taxa. Consistent with the results of nonmetric multidimensional scaling analysis, the four environmental conditions (water content, plant presence, cultivar, and soil depth) significantly influence the assemblages of soil RNA viral communities as suggested by the correlation analysis and the random forest algorithm. The modularity analysis of the factor network and the structural equation modeling further support the hierarchical associations among the four environmental factors and the community factors representing the co-existing eukaryotic, prokaryotic, and RNA viral communities. The soil water content, plant presence, and type of cultivar demonstrate a significant positive impact on eukaryotic RNA viral richness directly as well as indirectly on eukaryotic RNA viral abundance via influencing the co-existing eukaryotic members in this soil. Our data also provide statistical support for the negative influence of soil depth on soil eukaryotic richness and abundances resulting in its indirect impact on soil eukaryotic RNA viral communities. This study provides field-relevant information on how environmental and community factors collectively shape soil RNA communities and contribute to ecological understanding of RNA viral survival under various environmental conditions and virus-host interactions in soil.

Wu, Ruonan↗

DOE OSTI2020

One Structure, Two Elements—LuGe 2 Superconductor vs Ordinary Metallic Conductor LuSn 2 . A Case Study on How Site-Selective Germanium for Tin Atom Substitution Leads to Modulating of the Charge Distribution

The substitution of chemically similar elements in a given crystal structure is an effective way to enhance physical properties, but the understanding on such improvements is usually impeded because the substitutions are random, and the roles of the different atoms cannot be distinguished by crystallographic symmetry. Herein, we provide a detailed crystallographic analysis and property measurements for the continuous solid solutions LuGe x Sn 2–x (0 < x < 2). The results show that there is no apparent change of the global symmetry, with the end-members LuGe 2 and LuSn 2 , as well as the intermediate LuGe x Sn 2–x compositions adopting the ZrSi 2 type structure (space group Cmcm, Pearson index oC12). Yet, the refinements of the crystal structures from single-crystal X-ray diffraction data show that Ge–Sn atom substitutions are not random, but occur preferentially at the zig-zag chain. The patterned distribution of two group 14 elements leads to a significant variation in chemical bonding and charge ordering within the other structural fragment, the 2D square nets, thereby resulting in tuned electron transport. The enhancement is greater than the typical Bloch-Gruneisen model, and more akin to the parallel-resistor model. Magnetization measurements on single crystals show bulk superconductivity in all LuGe x Sn 2–x samples with shielding fractions as high as 90%. Specific heat data confirm the effect to originate from residual metallic tin in the material, indicating that Sn atom substitutions in the 2D square nets cause disruptions of the hypervalent bonding and local anisotropy, which ultimately leads to vanishing of the superconducting state in the end-member LuGe 2 . This work sheds light on how the complexity in chemical interactions by two different carbon congeners leads to changes in the physical properties and how they can be correlated with the induced charge distribution. Furthermore, these studies also provide a general approach to modulation of charge density, and thus, of emerging physical properties in other classes of intermetallic systems based on the main-group elements of groups 13 to 15.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Robust wind farm layout optimization

Wake interactions in wind farms cause losses in annual energy production (AEP) on the order of 10%. Wind farm designers optimize the layout of the farm to mitigate wake losses, especially in the dominant site-specific wind directions. As wind turbines and wind farms grow in scale, optimization becomes more complex. Offshore wind farms regularly comprise more than 100 wind turbines and are characterized by complex boundaries due to shipping lanes, neighboring wind farms, and other constraints. Layout optimization methods are broadly split between gradient-based and gradient-free approaches. Gradient-based approaches can converge quickly and perform well for smaller, academic problems but are often sensitive to initial conditions and tuning parameters and require expert knowledge to use. On the other hand, gradient-free approaches can be more robust to problem complexities. We present a robust layout optimization approach based on a random search algorithm. The algorithm is intended for those who are not optimization experts and has few tuning parameters that need specification to achieve satisfactory results. Unlike off-the-shelf methods, which use generally available, non-domain-specific optimization routines that accept as inputs an optimization function and constraint definitions, this approach takes advantage of the relative computational costs of the different evaluations by evaluating cheaper computations first (boundary and minimum distance constraints) and running expensive AEP evaluations only if all other checks pass. Moreover, an outer genetic algorithm allows multiple solutions to evolve in parallel, enabling rapid solution development on high-performance computers. We discuss the relative ease of selecting necessary tuning parameters and demonstrate the efficacy of the genetic random search on a complex layout problem consisting of placing 70 turbines in a nonconvex and unconnected boundary region.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimating soybean yields from high-temporal-resolution multi-source data using deep learning

Accurate and timely crop yield prediction is crucial for ensuring food security and maintaining stable agricultural markets. In recent years, there has been a surge in interest in leveraging high-temporal-resolution, multi-source data for effective crop growth monitoring and yield estimation. A notable challenge arises from the difficulty in capturing the intricate interactions between variables across different time steps within these high-temporal-resolution time series datasets. This complexity hinders the reliable extraction of yield information from voluminous and often noisy datasets, especially during periods of extreme weather events. Here, in this study, we propose an Attention and Graph Isomorphism Network-enhanced Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory network (AGB-LSTM) for estimating county-level soybean yield in the United States. This model integrates a diverse set of remote sensing data, including Near-Infrared Reflectance of Vegetation (NIRv), Sun-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), along with environmental covariates. The AGB-LSTM effectively leverages information related to crop yield from high-temporal-resolution time series data (5-days), achieving an accuracy of R²= 0.67 and rRMSE = 14.46%. This approach significantly outperforms traditional machine learning methods such as Random Forest (RF) (R²= 0.52, rRMSE = 17.36%) and Bi-LSTM (R²= 0.58, rRMSE = 16.17%). Sensitivity experiments with different time steps and ranges demonstrated that our model could accurately and stably predict yields 1 to 2 months before harvest. Moreover, data with a finer temporal resolution consistently improved prediction performance, resulting in an approximately 20% increase in and an approximately 20% decrease in rRMSE compared to using monthly composites. We also evaluated the robustness of the model under extreme climate events and observed strong performance (R²= 0.50, rRMSE = 21.32%). Finally, yield mapping for major soybean-producing regions in North America in 2023 revealed spatial patterns that closely matched USDA yield reports. Our findings suggest that the AGB-LSTM model is a promising and effective method for estimating yield and has notable potential for global crop yield forecasting.

Deep learning↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thermodynamics of order and randomness in dopant distributions inferred from atomically resolved imaging

Abstract Exploration of structure-property relationships as a function of dopant concentration is commonly based on mean field theories for solid solutions. However, such theories that work well for semiconductors tend to fail in materials with strong correlations, either in electronic behavior or chemical segregation. In these cases, the details of atomic arrangements are generally not explored and analyzed. The knowledge of the generative physics and chemistry of the material can obviate this problem, since defect configuration libraries as stochastic representation of atomic level structures can be generated, or parameters of mesoscopic thermodynamic models can be derived. To obtain such information for improved predictions, we use data from atomically resolved microscopic images that visualize complex structural correlations within the system and translate them into statistical mechanical models of structure formation. Given the significant uncertainties about the microscopic aspects of the material’s processing history along with the limited number of available images, we combine model optimization techniques with the principles of statistical hypothesis testing. We demonstrate the approach on data from a series of atomically-resolved scanning transmission electron microscopy images of Mo x Re 1- x S 2 at varying ratios of Mo/Re stoichiometries, for which we propose an effective interaction model that is then used to generate atomic configurations and make testable predictions at a range of concentrations and formation temperatures.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗