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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29

Reliability and risk assessment of structures

Development of reliability and risk assessment of structural components and structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) the evaluation of the various uncertainties in terms of cumulative distribution functions for various structural response variables based on known or assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (2) evaluation of the failure probability; (3) reliability and risk-cost assessment; and (4) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual certification of man-rated structures by computational methods. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of man-rated structural components and structures can be effectively evaluated by using formal probabilistic methods.

Chamis, C. C.↗

CAIDA CUI Confirmation for OMRS & LCC SOCRRATES Emulator and iSEE Upgrade, Operations, & Analysis

This internship has focused on providing solutions for the Customer Avionics Interface Development and Analysis (CAIDA) subsystem. The main emulator that has been used during this internship is the Software-Only CEV (Crew Exploration Vehicle) Risk Reduction Analysis and Test Engineering Simulator (SOCRRATES). This emulator uses advanced math and physics methods to simulate specific points in a mission, such as ascent, entry, and orbit. Exploration Ground Systems (EGS) must ensure that all KSC based ground systems can be properly integrated with the flight vehicle software, therefore, the Modeling and Simulation Branch (NE-XM) of the KSC (Kennedy Space Center) Engineering Directorate supports a virtual environment that simulates the interface between ground systems and the flight vehicle. A primary component in assuring that is knowing whether the emulators have incorporated the correct CUIs (Compact Unique Identifiers) into their system, as well as understanding both the static and dynamic responses of the individual CUIs. Also, an effort for verification of Operational Maintenance Requirements Specifications (OMRS) and Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) that are supported by SOCRRATES for the Orion Crew Module were part of the project tasks this semester. This internship also focused on comparing two different simulation Commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) products and to determine whether or not a COTS package was a viable replacement for the current software that the iSEE (Immersive Simulations and Engineering Environment) lab uses. Upon research and testing, I found that this software was not feasible for the lab. It could not easily load CAD (Computer-Aided Design) or CREO models, give live feedback while the user is in the environment, and was not compatible with a virtual reality headset, all of which are necessary for the lab.

Bundy, Caleb↗

On Automating Failure Mode Analysis and Enforcing its Integrity

This paper reports our experience on the development of a design-for-safety (DFS) workbench called Risk Assessment and Management Environment (RAME) for microelectronic avionics systems. Our objective is to transform DFS practice from an ad-hoc, inefficient, error-prone approach to a stringent engineering process such that DFS can keep up with the rapidly growing complexity of avionics systems. In particular, RAME is built upon an information infrastructure that comprises a fault model, a knowledge base, and a failure reporting/tracking system. This infrastructure permits systematic learning from prior projects and enables the automation of failure modes, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA). Among other unique features, the most important advantage of RAME is its capability of directly accepting design source code in hardware description languages (HDLs) for automated failure mode analysis, which enables RAME to be compatible and to evolve with most electronic-computer-aided-design systems. Through an initial experimental evaluation of the RAME prototype, we show that our approach to FMECA automation improves failure mode analysis turn-around-time, completeness, and accuracy.

design for safety↗

A Model-Based Systems Engineering Evaluation of the Evolution to an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System

In 2018, as result of a recommendation from the National Academies, NASA began to prototype an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System(IASMS). The purpose of the IASMS is to enable innovative aviation operations and greater heterogeneity of the overall National Airspace (NAS) by automating much of the safety monitoring, assessment, and risk and hazard mitigation functionspresent in today’s Safety Management Systems (SMS). NASA has worked together with early industry collaborators to understand how such a system might work and has published several early Concepts of Operation (ConOps) and other technical memoranda that illustrate the primary considerations for selected aviation domains. The shift from an SMS to an IASMS is predicated on several assumptions, including: 1.) automating safety functions will decrease the amount of time necessary for risk and hazard identification and analysis, making it more likely that safety concerns are understood ‘in-time’ to mitigate them, and 2.) an IASMS will allow easier tailoring of safety management processes to the particular risks and hazards inherent to that aviation operation. In this paper, we begin to validate these assumptions through the use of Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE).

In-time Aviation Safety Management System↗

Feasibility of Recycling Discharged Microreactor Heavy Metal in Light Water and Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors: A Neutronics Analysis

Nuclear microreactors (MRs) offer unique advantages, such as rapid deployment, potability, low maintenance requirements, and operational flexibility. Their compact size makes them a promising solution for decentralized power generation, particularly in remote areas, military bases, and disaster-stricken regions. However, MRs face challenges, including unutilized fissile material at the end of life, economic inefficiency, increased heavy metal (HM) waste complicating disposal, and the accumulation of plutonium (Pu) with high 239 Pu concentrations raising proliferation risks. Here, this study investigated the neutronics feasibility of a novel three-stage fuel cycle where discharged HM from MRs is recycled and burned in light water reactors and sodium-cooled fast reactors. This approach converts discharged HM into valuable fuel, enhancing the efficiency of MR deployments while improving the safeguardability of their final waste products. Neutronics analysis demonstrated that the safety characteristics of reactor designs in each stage were minimally impacted by the proposed cycle. For two representative MR designs, a fast-spectrum MR with solid pellet fuel and a thermal-spectrum MR with TRISO (TRi-structural-ISOtropic) fuel compacts, the proposed fuel cycle reduced the uranium disposal mass flow rate by ~60%, decreased the 235 U enrichment of the discharge fuel to ~1 wt%, eliminated plutonium disposal, and increased the cumulative fuel burnup to ~580 gigawatt-day per metric ton of initial heavy metal (GWd/t-iHM) or 60% fissions per initial metal atom. Despite the significant differences between the two MR designs, the performance and infrastructure requirements of the developed fuel cycles were remarkably similar, indicating its generalizability to a broader class of MRs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A Model-Based Systems Engineering Evaluation of the Evolution to an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System

In 2018, as result of a recommendation from the National Academies, NASA began to prototype an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS). The purpose of the IASMS is to enable innovative aviation operations and greater heterogeneity of the overall National Airspace (NAS) by automating much of the safety monitoring, assessment, and risk and hazard mitigation function present in today’s Safety Management Systems (SMS). NASA has worked together with early industry collaborators to understand how such a system might work and has published several early Concepts of Operation (ConOps) and other technical memoranda that illustrate the primary considerations for selected aviation domains. The shift from an SMS to an IASMS is predicated on several assumptions, including: 1.) automating safety functions will decrease the amount of time necessary for risk and hazard identification and analysis, making it more likely that safety concerns are understood ‘in-time’ to mitigate them, and 2.) an IASMS will allow easier tailoring of safety management processes to the particular risks and hazards inherent to that aviation operation. In this paper, we begin to validate these assumptions through the use of Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE).

IASMS↗

A Comprehensive Characterization of Microorganisms and Allergens in Spacecraft Environment

The determination of risk from infectious disease during long-duration missions is composed of several factors including (1) the host#s susceptibility, (2) the host#s exposure to the infectious disease agent, and (3) the concentration of the infectious agent, and (4) the characteristics of the infectious agent. While stringent steps are taken to minimize the transfer of potential pathogens to spacecraft, several medically significant organisms have been isolated from both the Mir and International Space Station (ISS). Historically, the method for isolation and identification of microorganisms from spacecraft environmental samples depended upon their growth on culture media. Unfortunately, only a fraction of the organisms may grow on a culture medium, potentially omitting those microorganisms whose nutritional and physical requirements for growth are not met. Thus, several pathogens may not have been detected, such as Legionella pneumophila, the etiological agent of Legionnaire#s disease. We hypothesize that environmental analysis using non-culture-based technologies will reveal microorganisms, allergens, and microbial toxins not previously reported in spacecraft, allowing for a more complete health assessment. The development of techniques for this flight experiment, operationally named SWAB, has already provided advances in NASA laboratory processes and beneficial information toward human health risk assessment. The first accomplishment of the SWAB experiment was the incorporation of 16S ribosomal DNA sequencing for the identification of bacteria. The use of this molecular technique has increased bacterial speciation of environmental isolates from previous flights three fold compared to conventional methodology. This increased efficiency in bacterial speciation provides a better understanding of the microbial ecology and the potential risk to the crew. Additional SWAB studies focused on the use of molecular-based DNA fingerprinting using repetitive sequencebased polymerase chain reaction (rep-PCR). This technology has allowed contamination tracking of microorganisms between crewmembers and their environment. This study not only demonstrated that ISS has a greater diversity of organisms than originally expected, but also provided insight into possible routes of infection to the crew. Additional ground-based studies used rep-PCR and protein based assays to determine the potential of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) aboard ISS. MRSA has become increasingly common on Earth and pose a treatment problem for infections during flight. While no MRSA have been isolated from ISS to date, the mecA gene product that is responsible for methicillin resistance was isolated in other Staphylococcus species aboard ISS suggesting a potential of MRSA through gene transfer. Using improved sample collection technologies, flight sampling for SWAB was initiated in August 2006 and should continue through spring of 2007. The focus of these flight samples is the collection of DNA for evaluation by Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis (DGGE). Unlike other techniques, DGGE does not depend on any microbial growth on culture media allowing a more comprehensive assessment of the spacecraft interior. This study should provide insight into the true microbial ecology that is experienced by the crew during flight. This information will lead toward an accurate microbial risk assessment to help set flight requirements to protect the safety, health, and performance of the crew.

Ott, C. M.↗

Patterns of Initial Relapse from a Phase 3 Study of Response-Based Therapy for High-Risk Hodgkin Lymphoma (AHOD0831): A Report from the Children's Oncology Group

The Children's Oncology Group protocol AHOD0831, for pediatric patients with high-risk classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL), used response-adapted radiation fields, rather than larger involved-field radiation therapy (IFRT) that were historically used. This retrospective analysis of patterns of relapse among patients enrolled in the study was conducted to study the potential effect of a reduction in RT exposure.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF RISK ANALYSIS TOOLKIT FOR PLANT RESOURCE OPTIMIZATION

This paper presents the development of methods and tools that are being designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules and optimal maintenance postures for plant components) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available component health and cost data. These methods include both data- and model-based optimization methods. Model-based optimization methods directly include reliability and cost models to determine an optimal plant operational strategy. We consider gradient-based and evolutionary (based on genetic algorithms) optimization methods. The second class of methods target more specific use cases (e.g., project schedule optimization) and are not based on reliability models directly, but they require specific component reliability and cost data. This class of methods is based on variants of the knapsack problem with an aim to determine an optimal project schedule that maximizes the overall NPV. This paper also presents multi-objective methods designed to identify an optimal maintenance posture based on a Pareto frontier analysis. Rather than dictating the “right” tradeoff (i.e., identify the absolute best posture), we show how it is possible to perform a trade space exploration approach (i.e., identify value and costs of several postures and let the analysis account for desired value and cost metrics). This is performed by identifying maintenance postures that maximize value (e.g., system availability) and minimize operational costs, i.e., the Pareto frontier in a value-cost trade space. For all these methods we present detailed applicative examples that show their validity from a decision-making perspective.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Source term analysis of FeCrAl accident tolerant fuel using MELCOR

It has been established that incremental improvements in beyond design basis accident performance can be achieved through accident tolerant fuel (ATF). However, they have the potential to recover margin with respect to conventional fuel and therefore enhance plant economics through uprate or cycle length increase. To realize this potential, it is necessary to quantify the reduction in source term due to use of ATF, and correspondingly how this is affected by increasing the cycle length and/or burnup. This requires development of a risk informed analysis methodology for ATF under high burnup conditions, which is being developed within LWRS. To this end, a MELCOR simulation of FeCrAl ATF in a recovered Large Break LOCA (LBLOCA) scenario has been developed, using a model based on the Zion Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The new user defined material capability, along with the inclusion of detailed neutronics- and depletion-derived parameters such as core power distribution, decay heat behavior, and fission product inventories, allows a more detailed simulation of FeCrAl clad material properties and behavior than has previously been possible using MELCOR. These detailed FeCrAl results were compared with a zircaloy clad model to investigate the differences between the two clad types and quantify the benefits of FeCrAl ATF with an 18-month cycle. Next, the fuel cycle with ATF was extended to 24 months, to determine whether any additional safety margin provided by FeCrAl ATF could be leveraged to implement high burnup FeCrAl-clad fuel while retaining the same operating and safety limits as current zircaloy-clad fuel. For the particular scenario analyzed, the delay to fuel failure from using ATF was of the same order as the LOCA recovery time, and hence significant in reducing fission product release, with the 24-month FeCrAl core performing better than the 18-month zircaloy core. It is noted that for other transients, the reduction in release due to using FeCrAl may be less significant. Furthermore, the material model developed here can be used in such further studies in support of determining the overall source term.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Scenario adaptive disruption prediction study for next generation burning-plasma tokamaks

Next generation High Performance (HP) tokamaks risk damage from unmitigated disruptions at high current and power. Achieving reliable disruption prediction for a device's HP operation based on its Low Performance (LP) data is a key to its success. In this letter, through explorative data analysis and dedicated numerical experiments on multiple existing tokamaks, we demonstrate how the operational regimes of tokamaks can affect the power of a trained disruption predictor. First, our results suggest data-driven disruption predictors trained on abundant LP discharges work poorly on the HP regime of the same tokamak, which is a consequence of the distinct distributions of the tightly correlated signals related to disruptions in these two regimes. Second, we find that matching operational parameters among tokamaks strongly improves cross-machine accuracy which implies our model learns from the underlying scalings of dimensionless physics parameters like q 95 , β p and confirms the importance of these parameters in disruption physics and cross machine domain matching from the data-driven perspective. Finally, our results show in the absence of HP data from the target devices, the best predictivity of the HP regime for the target machine can be achieved by combining LP data from the target with HP data from other machines. Furthermore, these results provide a possible disruption predictor development strategy for next generation tokamaks, such as ITER and SPARC, and highlight the importance of developing baseline scenario discharges of future tokamaks on existing machines to collect more relevant disruptive data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

BIPS Turboalternator-Compressor characteristics and application to the NASA Solar Dynamic Ground Demonstration Program

The NASA-sponsored 2kW(e) Solar Dynamic Space Power System Ground Test Demonstration Program requires the physical and the thermodynamic integration of the Brayton Isotope Power System (BIPS) Turboalternator-Compressor (TAC) and recuperator with a heat receiver, solar concentrator, and radiator based on Space Station Freedom designs. The aim of the designs is to provide a cost-effective, minimal-risk, viable ground test system. This paper describes the BIPS TAC configuration and performance characteristics along with the cycle analysis of BIPS TAC.

Amundsen, Peter C.↗

Guidance, Navigation, and Control System Design in a Mass Reduction Exercise

Early Orion GN&C system designs optimized for robustness, simplicity, and utilization of commercially available components. During the System Definition Review (SDR), all subsystems on Orion were asked to re-optimize with component mass and steady state power as primary design metrics. The objective was to create a mass reserve in the Orion point of departure vehicle design prior to beginning the PDR analysis cycle. The Orion GN&C subsystem team transitioned from a philosophy of absolute 2 fault tolerance for crew safety and 1 fault tolerance for mission success to an approach of 1 fault tolerance for crew safety and risk based redundancy to meet probability allocations of loss of mission and loss of crew. This paper will discuss the analyses, rationale, and end results of this activity regarding Orion navigation sensor hardware, control effectors, and trajectory design.

Crain, Timothy↗

Parts and Components Reliability Assessment: A Cost Effective Approach

System reliability assessment is a methodology which incorporates reliability analyses performed at parts and components level such as Reliability Prediction, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to assess risks, perform design tradeoffs, and therefore, to ensure effective productivity and/or mission success. The system reliability is used to optimize the product design to accommodate today?s mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. Stand ard based reliability assessment is an effective approach consisting of reliability predictions together with other reliability analyses for electronic, electrical, and electro-mechanical (EEE) complex parts and components of large systems based on failure rate estimates published by the United States (U.S.) military or commercial standards and handbooks. Many of these standards are globally accepted and recognized. The reliability assessment is especially useful during the initial stages when the system design is still in the development and hard failure data is not yet available or manufacturers are not contractually obliged by their customers to publish the reliability estimates/predictions for their parts and components. This paper presents a methodology to assess system reliability using parts and components reliability estimates to ensure effective productivity and/or mission success in an efficient manner, low cost, and tight schedule.

Lee, Lydia↗

Shuttle Risk Progression: Use of the Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to Show Reliability Growth

It is important to the Space Shuttle Program (SSP), as well as future manned spaceflight programs, to understand the early mission risk and progression of risk as the program gains insights into the integrated vehicle through flight. The risk progression is important to the SSP as part of the documentation of lessons learned. The risk progression is important to future programs to understand reliability growth and the first flight risk. This analysis uses the knowledge gained from 30 years of operational flights and the current Shuttle PRA to calculate the risk of Loss of Crew and Vehicle (LOCV) at significant milestones beginning with the first flight. Key flights were evaluated based upon historical events and significant re-designs. The results indicated that the Shuttle risk tends to follow a step function as opposed to following a traditional reliability growth pattern where risk exponentially improves with each flight. In addition, it shows that risk can increase due to trading safety margin for increased performance or due to external events. Due to the risk drivers not being addressed, the risk did not improve appreciably during the first 25 flights. It was only after significant events occurred such as Challenger and Columbia, where the risk drivers were apparent, that risk was significantly improved. In addition, this paper will show that the SSP has reduced the risk of LOCV by almost an order of magnitude. It is easy to look back afte r 30 years and point to risks that are now obvious, however; the key is to use this knowledge to benefit other programs which are in their infancy stages. One lesson learned from the SSP is understanding risk drivers are essential in order to considerably reduce risk. This will enable the new program to focus time and resources on identifying and reducing the significant risks. A comprehensive PRA, similar to that of the Shuttle PRA, is an effective tool quantifying risk drivers if support from all of the stakeholders is given.

Hamlin, Teri L.↗

Concepts to Support HRP Integration Using Publications and Modeling

Initial efforts are underway to enhance the Human Research Program (HRP)'s identification and support of potential cross-disciplinary scientific collaborations. To increase the emphasis on integration in HRP's science portfolio management, concepts are being explored through the development of a set of tools. These tools are intended to enable modeling, analysis, and visualization of the state of the human system in the spaceflight environment; HRP's current understanding of that state with an indication of uncertainties; and how that state changes due to HRP programmatic progress and design reference mission definitions. In this talk, we will discuss proof-of-concept work performed using a subset of publications captured in the HRP publications database. The publications were tagged in the database with words representing factors influencing health and performance in spaceflight, as well as with words representing the risks HRP research is reducing. Analysis was performed on the publication tag data to identify relationships between factors and between risks. Network representations were then created as one type of visualization of these relationships. This enables future analyses of the structure of the networks based on results from network theory. Such analyses can provide insights into HRP's current human system knowledge state as informed by the publication data. The network structure analyses can also elucidate potential improvements by identifying network connections to establish or strengthen for maximized information flow. The relationships identified in the publication data were subsequently used as inputs to a model captured in the Systems Modeling Language (SysML), which functions as a repository for relationship information to be gleaned from multiple sources. Example network visualization outputs from a simple SysML model were then also created to compare to the visualizations based on the publication data only. We will also discuss ideas for building upon this proof-of-concept work to further support an integrated approach to human spaceflight risk reduction.

Mindock, J.↗